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Billy bilibala is:
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10.14.2009

Manulife 3q09 results forecast

Bilibala think Manulife's 3q09 adjusted EPS will be about CA$0.64, down from CA$1.09 (reported EPS) in 2q09 and up from CA$0.34 in 3q08. Bilibala may be a bit optimal, but i think Manulife's 2010 Outlook will be great.

In 3q09, here are some highlights to calculate my estimated EPS figures:
  • Corporate spread down by 30-40 bps => positive
  • Risk free rate looks flat => neutral
  • Market volatility down slightly from 27% to 24.5% => slightly positive
  • Equity market doing great, up 9.8% in Toronto, 15.0% in USA and 14.0% in Hong Kong => positive
  • USD to CAD dropped 13.72% => extremely negative
  • as per 2q09 press release, management will put through $500M change in assumption (I think this figure will be around $300M instead of $500M) => negative

2010 Outlook

  • Corporate spread should looks flat => neutral
  • Risk free rate should go up => positive
  • Market volatility should go down => positive
  • Equity market should go up, but not as dramatic as 2009 => positive
  • USD to CAD?? I don't know, I still think USD will not continue to fall => n/a

Just add some Manulife today at $22.41. No change on my target fair value.

at 18:08
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