Life Term Strategies

1. Huge Gains in Long Term
- Receive significant capital gains
- by investing in corporations
- (with wide economic moat & average peers’ net margin)
- In very very long term

2. Strong Periodic Cash Flow
- Maintain self-sufficient monthly cash flow
- Through dividend, gains on derivative & short term trading
- For re-investment to item # 1 mentioned above

3. Mind for Risk Management
- Ensure strong cash position
- Maintain low risk by continue monitor, analyze & feel:
economic trend & environment,
market condition & investors emotion
corporate performance & outlook
asset allocation & direction

4. Be a holy Christian investor:
- Invest in wisdom & varies ways, but consistent & not over nor under of what the Holy Bible expects a Jesus follower should be
- Keep regular & long term spiritual growth
Continue experience God @ finance market
Aim for life transform opportunities
- Even though it may not teach Billy & Bilibala what stocks to invest nor how to make more, more & more $

11.27.2009

郭田勇:迪拜事件反映复苏未稳 不排除连锁反应

http://news.hexun.com/2009-11-27/121842543.html?from=rss

和讯消息 阿联酋负债累累的迪拜酋长国周三宣布﹐将重组其最大的企业实体迪拜世界,这是一家业务横跨房地产和港口的企业集团。迪拜还宣布,将把迪拜世界的债务偿还延迟6个月。受此消息影响,26号的欧洲股市重挫,作为迪拜债权人的各大欧洲银行股也遭到抛售。对此,中央财经大学中国银行(601988,股吧)业研究中心主任郭田勇表示,迪拜债务危机说明金融危机以后,对于经济摆脱危机走向复苏不能过于乐观。他同时认为,不排除该事件引发连锁反应的可能性。

郭田勇表示,从金融危机的传导方面来看,迪拜债务危机反映出,目前,一些还没有引爆;从一些机构来看,内部还存在各种问题和风险,包括一些大型企业 和金融机构依然存在局部性隐患。政府刺激政策,使得各方主体认为经济能够持续走好。但是一些企业和金融机构为了自己或者整个经济的利益,试图把一些问题掩 饰过去,他们认为,当经济一旦复苏,各方面的需求增加,对企业本身经营有帮助。同时,资金环境变的更宽松,能够继续获得外部融资,带有侥幸性的避难的心 理。郭田勇指出,问题在于经济复苏只是政府刺激政策导致的阶段性复苏,并不是基于微观主体的实体需求增加所引致的真正复苏。由于在当前经济复苏的进程是一 种乍暖还寒的情况,可能有一些企业熬不过去,从而为全球经济复苏埋下一层阴影。

  郭田勇认为,从理论上讲,迪拜债务危机不排除多米诺的效应,如果迪拜单方面取消债务,可能会使其机构陷入困境。他同时指出,迪拜事件是个体性,微观性事件,会给复苏蒙上一层阴影,但因为阿联酋在国际上并非大的经济体,因此,不会在全球经济产生太大的拖累作用。

  据知情人士透露,迪拜世界的最大债权人为阿布扎比商业银行和阿联酋NBD PJSC,其他债权银行包括汇丰、巴克莱和苏格兰皇家银行等。对此,郭田勇表示,像汇丰银行这种资产规模较大的商业银行,本身债权的集中度不会很高,不会 把对经营发生实质性影响的资金量投到一个企业上。郭田勇不愿意把这件事看作能够形成银行系统性风险的事件,他说,该事件会给银行业绩带来一定影响,但是不 会影响到银行命运。

  人们担心迪拜世界确实会违约,进而引发风险资产市场的资金快速出逃。受此影响,日经指数昨日收盘跌0.6%,上证综合指数跌3.6%,多数欧洲 股市开盘都至少下跌2%。但欧洲汇市昨日午盘的美元受到这一消息的提振。郭田勇认为,股市是比较脆弱的地方,利空消息一定对股市有影响。但影响的程度会随 着未来内部情况不断披露表现出来。

11.26.2009

China Construction Bank:Regulator May Strengthen Capital Requirement

http://www.easybourse.com/bourse/actualite/china-construction-bankregulator-may-strengthen-capital-764542

BEIJING -(Dow Jones)- China Construction Bank Corp. (0939.HK) said Monday the country's banking regulator is considering tightening capital requirements for lenders next year, and CCB is closely monitoring the situation.

CCB spokesman Hu Changmiao told Dow Jones Newswires the China Banking Regulatory Commission may raise the capital adequacy requirement for banks from the current 10%, though detailed rules have not been issued yet. The CBRC ordered banks to raise their capital adequacy to 10% form 8% at the end of last year.

The regulator has repeatedly warned of possible risks arising from the explosive growth in lending earlier this year.

=> in long term, the tighten of lending is a must and it will help the economy to grow more stablely and healthy.

=> capital adequacy rise from 8% to 10%, to me is more like a requirement to be in line with international standard instead of the bank really lack of capital.

-Victoria Ruan contributed to this article, Dow Jones Newswires; 8610 8400 7799; victoria.ruan@dowjones.com

China Mobile falls on Credit Concerns

http://www.marketintelligencecenter.com/articles/995128

China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) opened at $48.82. So far today, the stock has hit a low of $48.24 and a high of $48.82. CHL is now trading at $48.67, down $1.03 (-2.07%). Over the last 52 weeks the stock has ranged from a low of $40.20 to a high of $59.22. CHL shares are falling with other Chinese ADRs today after the Chinese central bank warned banks to control their lending, triggering fears that tightened credit could put the brakes on the country's rapid growth. This could be a bad sign for CHL. Technical indicators for the stock are neutral and S&P gives CHL a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking. If you are looking for a hedged play on CHL the stock seems like it could be a candidate for a March out-of-the-money bear-call credit spread above the 55 range. [ABR-Seven Summits Strategic Investments NewsBite]

=> Haha!!! This is one of the example where the business news reporters don't know what they are talking about. The fact: yes, China central bank try to put a hold on lending and for some reason, investors start worry about whether China based bank's tier 1 capital ratio are too low (while their loan provision rate & loan deposit ratio are very low compare to lots of developed countries except Canada). However, China Mobile has close to RMB$300B in cash, no need to borrow, why will the stock price drop because of a credit concern?

=> stock price go up and down everyday, one should not expect to find explanation on day to day variance.

China Life reportedly considering Hong Kong unit spin-off

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China Life Insurance Co. (2628.HK) may consider spinning off its Hong Kong unit in a separate listing in three years, the Oriental Daily reported Wednesday, citing Liu Ting-an, president of the unit.

=> normally, spin off will provide:

  1. Add value to the insurance company
  2. Provide better segment and regional financial analysis
  3. Allow senior management to focus on its mission & projects to both the parent company & the subsidary

Liu said China Life hasn't decided where to list its wholly owned unit, China Life Insurance (Overseas) Co., "but a separate listing in Hong Kong may confuse investors with our (Hong Kong-listed) parent company."

Liu also said the unit isn't keen on making acquisitions, and he expects its revenue to exceed HK$30 billion this year. The report didn't specify the unit's 2008 revenue.

The unit has been established for around 25 years and mainly operates in Hong Kong and Macau.

Newspaper Web site: www.orientaldaily.on.cc

Big Banks Poised for Big Gains

http://wallstnation.com/BAC-WFC-JPM-higher-next-year-11242009

If you are sitting on the sidelines, paralyzed with fear about investing in some big banks, then think about this… JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), and Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) are the leading commercial banks in America. We are coming out of the financial crisis , which sent our economy in a tailspin for the past 2 years. The stock prices of those banks are reflecting current earnings power and not normalized earnings. Given that short-term interest rates are at unheard levels (3-month treasury yields at .01%, 6-month yields at .13%, and 12-month yields at .26%), it makes the banking industry a hugely profitable business today. John Paulson projects that latter part of 2011 will begin to show the profits these banks are making, and the banks’ stock prices will reflect.

=> true, the impact of financial crisis is still on, and the trend of deleverage may still continue until unemployment rate peak (hopefully early next year). On the other hand, with the historical low interest rate that widen interest spread & lesser player in the loan market, I am sure the banks will be more profitable than ever.

Amit Shah wrote a great piece on the subject of JPM, BAC & WFC at SeekingAlpha. He states that “The banks are not paying dividends so tangible book value is increasing rapidly, and capital ratios are higher than ever in an improving economic environment.” He believes in the next few months, the large-cap U.S. banks will go much higher.

=> I think the large cap US banks already rise back to a reasonable price at recession level. I don't think price will go dramatically higher in short run.

He also describes in his article his opinions that John Paulson and Warren Buffett are far more intelligent than Meredith Whitney and Dick Bove. He believes that anyone investing based on Meredith Whitney and Dick Bove's advice will miss the next leg higher on large-cap banks. He seems to make a valid point with this.

=> that's fairly true.

Check out the full article here and also review some of his analysis and reasoning why the stocks should see higher levels next year.

Amit concludes his article with a strong point when he indicates he is long in all three bans mentioned: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), and Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC).

FDA grants full approval to J&J's HIV drug

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/11/25/business-health-care-us-j-amp-j-hiv-drug_7159873.html
Associated Press, 11.25.09, 04:03 PM EST

BRIDGEWATER, N.J. --
A division of Johnson & Johnson said Wednesday that federal regulators granted full approval to an HIV drug designed to treat patients who have stopped responding to other treatments.

=> It is good if one can develop an HIV drug

The Food and Drug Administration gave Intelence preliminary approval in January 2008 under its accelerated approval program, which allowed J&J to market the drug. In order to gain full approval, FDA required the company to submit follow-up data on the drug's effectiveness.
More recent data submitted by J&J's Tibotec unit showed that 60 percent of patients taking the drug for 48 weeks had undetectable levels of HIV in their blood compared with 38 percent of patients taking a placebo.

Intelence is a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, or NNRTI, that blocks the enzyme HIV needs to multiply. The twice-daily tablet is already approved for use in 50 countries around the world.

Tibotec Therapeutics is a division of Ortho Biotech Products LP, a Johnson & Johnson company based in Bridgewater, N.J.

Shares of Johnson & Johnson rose 15 cents to $63.34.

11.25.2009

Berkshire Hathaway to 50 for 1 split

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=76985

Berkshire Hathaway's Board of Directors believes a 50-for-1 split of the company's B shares is advisable regardless of whether the deal to buy Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. goes through, according to an SEC filing yesterday.

=> Yeah!!! after the 50-to-1 split, everyone can invest in Berkshire Hathaway la.

Berkshire's SEC filing states that: "the Corporation’s Board of Directors believes that the split is advisable regardless of the BNSF transaction, and thus the Class B stock split is not contingent on the closing of the BNSF acquisition and, if approved by our shareholders, is expected to be effective prior to the date of such closing."

This is an interesting revelation. Warren Buffett has said the stock was being split so people owning small stakes in BNI could choose to get Berkshire B shares as part of a tax-free transaction. The SEC filing suggests that Berkshire wanted to split the B shares anyway. The A shares aren't being split. The split, if done today, would take Berkshire B shares from about $3,450 per share to about $69 per share. This makes the stock more accessible to the small-potatoes investor, adds trading volume and makes it more likely that the stock will be added to the S&P 500. That will force index funds to buy the stock, creating a steady flow of demand. It makes Berkshire a more mainstream stock and seems to be a step toward the post-Buffett era.

Here is what Buffett biographer Alice Schroeder had to say about the split in a recent Bloomberg column regarding the BNSF deal:

A final motive I am confident about is that Buffett finally has a plausible excuse to split Berkshire’s B shares. He has spilled a lot of ink over the years decrying stock splits.
A 50- to-1 ratio isn’t a stock split, it is a mincing. Why do it? Buffett has just given Standard & Poor’s the ticket it needs to add Berkshire to the S&P 500 Index at a time when S&P is desperate for large, solvent, high-quality companies to replace the casualties of last year’s carnage. It is high time for Standard & Poor’s to do this, but the stock’s liquidity has always been the sticking point. Buffett would never admit to wanting Berkshire to join the S&P, but becoming an acknowledged peer to other major companies is part of the path to his legacy.

Berkshire will hold a special shareholders meeting in January to vote on the stock split and a few related matters, according to the SEC filing. An exact date wasn't given. The vote should just be a formality, as Buffett has already said he'll be voting for the change, and he controls 31.6 percent of the voting power. Other shareholders will follow.

In addition to approving the stock split, Berkshire shareholders will be authorizing the company to increase the number of B shares issued from 55 million to 3.225 billion. This will account for the 50-to-1 split and create enough B shares for each A share to be converted.

Of course all A shares won't be converted to B shares, but it's gradually happening, thanks mostly to Buffett's annual donations to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the foundations of his late wife and children. Buffett's A shares are slowly being converted to B shares as part of the donations.

The conversion rate will now be 1,500 B shares for every one A share (A shares can be converted to B shares but not vice-versa). Each B share will have one-ten-thousandth (1/10,000th) the voting power of an A share, which is again proportional to the current 1/200th ratio.

Only shareholders who own Berkshire stock as of the close of business Nov. 30 will be able to vote at the special shareholders meeting in January. Most of the votes will likely be done by proxy, and people who don't return the materials will be counted as voting in favor of the recommendations.

The Burlington deal, through which Berkshire will buy the $26 billion in BNI stock that it doesn't already own, is expected to close in the first quarter sometime after the special shareholders meeting. Berkshire is expected to finance the deal by issuing about $10 billion worth of stock, paying $8 billion in cash on its own books and paying another $8 billion in cash borrowed from Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan Chase on favorable terms.

11.20.2009

China Mobile October 09 new Subscribers

China Mobile October new subscribers in 3G up to 654k, double from September's 328k. 2G new subscribers down to 5.1M from 5.43M in September.

財華社深圳新聞中心
表示已啟動上海國際板上市籌備工作的中國移動今早隨市小幅走低,股價現跌1.03%至76.65港元,成交738萬股;或因ARPU受壓預期抵消了顯著增 加的3G新增用戶數據推動力。因該公司公布,10月份新增3G用戶65.4萬戶,遠優於9月份的32.8萬戶;截至10月末的3G用戶已達231萬。惟中 國移動10月份新增用戶數共計為510萬,略低於9月份的543萬,也仍差於年內月均新增量的約562萬戶。

中國移動董事長王建宙更預計該公司每用戶平均收入會進一步承壓,因農村地區用戶增多。而鑒於其業務增速放緩,王建宙成該公司將會著手控制成本,在未來幾年內降低資本支出。

但中國移動宣布計劃推出電子閱讀設備,還計劃在今年年底前推出第三代手機移動電視服務,希望在移動電視服務推出的第一年獲得數百萬用戶,第二年獲得數千萬用戶。王建宙預計隨著新服務的推出,該公司利潤將繼續增長。

更多精彩內容,請登陸財華中國網 (http://www.caihuanet.com) 或財華香港網 (http://www.finet.hk)

11.19.2009

壽險市場份額下滑中國人壽

鉅亨網新聞中心 2009 / 11 / 19 星期四 11:39

昨日,中國人壽 公佈的2009年1-10月的最新保險經營數據顯示,公司今年10月份的保費收入環比大幅下降34.29%,前10個月累計同比下降3.82%,列三家上 市險企環比降幅之首。從中國人壽在各地區1-9月份人壽保費收入當中亦不難看出,中國人壽強大的壽險份額正在面臨各地城池失守的窘境。

  國壽份額在多個地區被平安趕超

  中國人壽公告的經營數據顯示,其前十個月完成保費收入2547億元,這一數據較去年同期下降3.82%。10月單月實現保費收入174億元,環比9月份的265億元下降幅度高達34.29%。這組明顯下滑的數據,或將對其當月在全國市場的佔有份額產生不利影響。

  提起中國人壽,其在國人心中是當然的險企巨無霸。正是這樣一艘業界航母,如今卻正面臨著同業的趕超,在局部的競爭當中,正經歷「損兵折將」,城池失守的窘境。也許是它的神經末梢脈絡龐雜以致於與大腦的溝通不暢,造成局部微循環出現了問題。

   記者從保監會網站公佈的數據發現,自2007年開始中國人壽與中國平安在深圳的市場地位發生了逆轉。國壽在深圳連續8年的老大地位被平安搶得。2007 年底,中國人壽在深圳的人壽保費收入為22億元,中國平安在深圳的人壽保費收入為28億元,兩者差距為6億元。進入2008年,中國人壽深圳公司與中國平 安深圳公司的市場份額差距有所減少。2008年,中國人壽在深圳的人壽保費收入為38億元,中國平安在深圳的人壽保費收入為42億元,兩者差距僅為4億 元。差距大幅收窄35.82%。

  但這一差距在2009年的前9個月內並未被繼續收窄,反而出現較大幅度的擴大,儘管距離年尾尚有不到2個月的時間,但面對強大的競爭對手,似乎2個月的時間不算長。畢竟,中國平安在深圳用了很長的時間才坐到頭把交椅的位子,料其不會輕言放棄。

  據深圳市保監局公佈的人壽保險公司原保險保費收入情況表顯示,2009年1-9月中國人壽深圳分公司的保費收入為31億元,而中國平安深圳分公司已經高達43億元,兩者相差12億元。

   對於份額的差距,中國人壽深圳分公司的相關人士告訴記者,就深圳市而言,中國平安與中國人壽的競爭最近兩年一直處於焦灼狀態,但中國人壽誓做深圳最好的 保險公司這一目標始終不渝,單就幾個月的數據對比,也不足以表現公司全年的經營狀況。同時該相關人士對於公司的發展前景充滿信心。

  份額下滑累及分公司掌舵人?

  近日有媒體報道,因近兩年公司在深圳的市場份額久居次席,中國人壽保險股份有限公司於日前更換了深圳分公司總經理。報道同時指出,這是國壽深圳分公司在兩年內的第三次總經理換帥。臨近年底出現高管人員的更迭,是臨危受命還是為來年的戰略佈局打基礎尚不得而知。

   據報道稱,1999年-2006年,中國人壽深圳分公司牢牢佔據深圳市場的「龍頭老大」位置,連續8年總保費居於深圳市場首位,「深圳保險市場的龍頭」 地位一直未被撼動。然而,面對市場佔有率的下滑,面對高層管理人員的更迭,中國人壽深圳分公司相關人士對記者表示,相關媒體報道稱中國人壽深圳分公司總經 理換人及市場份額下滑只是在時間點上的一種巧合,市場份額下滑與人士變動沒有內在聯繫。人士變動僅是公司高層著眼於公司未來發展的考慮。該人士進一步解釋 說,中國人壽深圳分公司原總經理梁勇是在今年6、7月間離開公司的,接到上面的通知也只是說由身為副總經理的周玉潔主持公司工作,目前總經理的人選尚處空 缺之中。

  如果僅是因為市場份額減少使公司龍頭地位受到威脅而換人的邏輯成立的話,那麼,還有哪些地區老總的座椅岌岌可危呢?

   記者從保監會公佈的歷年人壽保險公司原保險保費收入情況表中發現,中國人壽出現市場份額下滑的地區並不止深圳一個地區,就單個城市的對比來看,同是沿海 經濟發達地區的上海,今年前9個月內中國人壽壽險保費收入為71億元,中國平安為92億元,二者相差21億元達30%。2008年時平安收入92億元,國 壽收入76億元,二者差16億元,2007年時,平安收入80億元,國壽收入67億元,差距為13億元。13億元、16億元、21億元,可以看出,差距正 在逐年拉大。

  在北京,今年前9個月內中國人壽壽險保費收入為58億元,中國平安為89億元,二者相差31億元達53%。2008年時平 安收入88億元,國壽收入69億元,二者差19億元,2007年時,平安收入70億元,國壽收入55億元,差距為15億元。15億元、19億元、31億 元,同樣是差距在增大,而且今年前9個月的差距較去年年底的差距放大明顯。

  在天津,今年前9個月內中國人壽壽險保費收入為23億元,中 國平安為27億元,二者相差4億元達17%。繼2009年2月中國人壽在天津首次被中國平安趕超以來,歷經7個月的競爭中國人壽天津分公司始終未能奪回失 去的陣地,且差距從1億元逐步拉大到4億元。2008年時平安收入28億元,國壽收入43億元,二者差15億元,2007年時,平安收入24億元,國壽收 入28億元,差距為4億元。

  如果按中國人壽深圳分公司相關人士對記者所表示的,市場份額下滑與人士變動僅是一種「巧合」,那麼,這樣的巧合是否會發生在上述地區呢?平安天津的趕超已為中國人壽其他分公司的境況敲響警鐘。

  市場老大地位堪憂

   在中國人壽市場佔有率具有明顯優勢的地區,中國平安與中國人壽的市場份額差距正在逐步縮小。例如,中國人壽廣東分公司今年前9月壽險保費收入達231億 元,中國平安廣東分公司當期壽險保費收入為99億元,差距為132億元。而中國平安與中國人壽兩公司去年同期保費收入在廣東的差距為174億元。

  兩公司市場份額在激烈的市場競爭中出現的明顯變化,不得不令人們擔心國壽欲在年內逆轉市場份額下滑態勢的雄心大志能否得以實現。

   年關將至,保險企業一般都會利用這段時間,通過各種方式沖業績,力圖給廣大投資者一個滿意的回報。如果因為一地的經營不善而換掉其管理人,這還是可以理 解的,但畢竟換帥是把雙刃劍。眾所周知,經歷了戀愛階段,彼此認為有了足夠的瞭解之後而進入婚姻生活的一對新婚夫妻,在生活當中尚需要經歷一段較長時間的 磨合期,磨合成功則是幸福美滿皆大歡喜,失敗則意味著有可能面臨解體。換帥不同樣也會有如此的過程嗎?

  記者隨機採訪了中國人壽深圳分公 司某營業部的工作人員,他認為,中國人壽在深圳的市場份額下滑存在兩方面的原因,第一,目前在銷售網點及營銷人員數量上與平安存在較大差距;第二,在產品 方面,雖然營銷的產品衝突面不大,但是平安的萬能險一直都在銷售之中,而國壽的萬能險銷售則隨著貫徹落實調整結構的深入,在一段時期內賣賣停停,這在一定 程度上影響了國壽的業績,反映到市場份額上則是出現下滑,同時,他也承認,雖然2007年以來一直與中國平安存在差距,唯這次最明顯。對於上層換帥他表 示,是否因為業績持續落後於平安的原因而換人他不清楚,但他也期望,換人是著眼於長遠的戰略考慮,畢竟換人對短時期內的經營會產生不利影響。如果想在年內 剩下的2個月的時間內將市場重新奪回來,他顯得信心不足。當記者告訴他9月份國壽在北京、上海、天津的市場份額均落後於中國平安之後,他表現出了對於中國 人壽遠期市場佔有率的擔憂。

  中國人壽於前兩年便已確立了「主業特強、適度多元」的發展戰略。在銀行、證券等資本運作領域更是大手筆頻 頻,並表示,將核心主業由目前的壽險業、資產管理,拓展到養老險和財險,逐漸擴張至銀行、基金、證券和信託等相關金融領域。那麼,如果作為核心業務的壽險 業績出現持續下滑的話,對於其開疆拓土是否會產生掣肘尚不得而知。

  證券分析人士對中國人壽在部分地區市場份額的下滑表示,對於公司更多的要是考慮其資產的內含價值與投資收益,單就市場規模而言,一時的得與失不見得對內含價值產生不利影響。分公司的人員更迭對於總公司的發展戰略亦不會產生任何影響。

   如果說市場份額下滑是中國人壽上層做出換人決定的原因,那麼,從9月份的保費收入來看,深圳全市的壽險收入僅佔全國壽險收入的1.7%,以單個城市來對 比的話,遠低於北京的6.12%,也不及同為沿海開發城市上海的5.54%,甚至與新興的直轄市慶的2.4%仍差0.7個百分點。那麼,國壽為什麼獨看重 在深圳的市場佔有率呢?

中移動2011年啟動4G技術

鉅亨網編輯查淑妝 台北綜合報導 2009/ 11 / 19 星期四 09:40

正當內地今年才向電訊商發放3G牌照,市場已轉移視線 至採用4G移動技術的 LTE (長期演進技術) ,中移動 (0941-HK) 有機會於 2011 年啟動 LTE 技術的移動業 務,不過管理層表示,面對通話量增長放緩及新業務的 投資,因此未來將縮減資本開支。

此外,中移動在上海證券交易所國際板上市的事宜正在 積極推進中,籌備工作已經啟動,目前正等待有關部門 落實細節。

在香港舉行的亞洲移動通信大會上,業界關注 LTE 技 術的發展。《路透社》引述大會首席營銷官 Michael O'Hara 表示,中移動有機會率先啟動 LTE 技術,預期 2010 年開始試用 LTE 技術,並於 2011 年展開部署。

中移動董事長兼首席執行官王建宙表示,將為明年上海 世博會推出試用版的 TD-LTE 系統。他表示,由於中移 動屬於成長型的企業,因此即使未來資本開支有所下調 ,惟下調幅度不會太大。

香港《大公報》報導,在亞洲移動通信大會上,中移動 承諾採取一系列的環保行動,王建宙指出,希望在 2012 年把每通話單位的用電量較 2008 年減少 20% ,相信 有助降低開支,同時集團旗下基站將陸續採用自然方法 ,例如風力及水力進行冷卻。

此外,王建宙表示,期望今年底 3G 上客量增至 300 萬戶,目前集團擁有 5 億個用戶,內地覆蓋率達 99% , GSM 基站有 44 萬個, TD-SCDMA 今年底將有約 8.8 萬個基站,覆蓋 238 個城市,覆蓋率約 70% ,預期 TD-SCDMA 基站於 2011 年增至 16 萬個。

被問到與蘋果公司洽談引入 iPhone 的進度,王建宙回 應說,仍繼續與蘋果公司洽談。不過他強調, iPhone 只是智能手機的其中一款,相信未來會有更多智能手機 推出。除了擁有價值 4000-5000 元人民幣 (下同) 的 TD-SCDMA 高端手機,中移動將推出 5 款價格約 1000 元低價手機。

對於市傳中移動有意增加手機補貼,由今年的 120 億元 大幅增至明年的 300 億元,王建宙表示,集團仍未確定 明年的手機補貼預算,強調補貼金額要視乎上客人數及資 費而定。

此外,王建宙表示,該公司在上海證券交易所國際板上市 的事宜正在積極推進中,籌備工作已經啟動,目前正等待 有關部門落實細節。

據全球移動通信系統協會最新報告顯示,全球移動通信用 戶已突破 40 億,其中亞太區市場增長尤其迅速,今年將 突破 20 億。預計到 2013 年亞太區移動通信用戶將超過 30 億

Manulife Financial Fortifies its Capital Position

TORONTO, Nov. 18 /CNW/ - Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) today announced that it will issue $2,500,400,000 in common equity in a bought deal arranged by Scotia Capital Inc. and RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Upon closing, The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company (MLI) will have access to the highest level of capital since it became a public company.

=> $2.5B is about 8% of the total market cap.

Manulife Financial Chief Executive Officer Donald Guloien said, "We are positioning Manulife for the long term. We believe this transaction achieves the fortress level of capital necessary to buffer against more conservative economic scenarios and to position us to take advantage of highly attractive acquisition and growth opportunities."

=> With MCCSR ratio 229% as of Sep 30, 09. Bilibala think they already have more than enough capital. To determine whether the share issue is positive or negative to shareholders, we need to look at its proposal.

"Our action today is consistent with Manulife's conservative approach to capital management," he added. "Achieving these strong capital levels enables us to offer an even higher degree of security to present and future customers. It also gives us tremendous flexibility."

Manulife Chief Financial Officer Michael Bell said, "Manulife continues to enjoy solid operating performance and excellent credit experience given challenging markets. Although equity markets, interest rates and credit will continue to impact the Company's balance sheet and earnings, this transaction will strengthen Manulife's flexibility to respond to both risks and opportunities."

=> that's true. Manulife is continue to deliver solid performance, even during recession and the financial crisis.

On a pro forma basis after giving effect to the $2.5 billion offering of common equity, if the entire amount of the proceeds of the offering were invested in MLI, and reflecting market conditions as of the end of our third quarter, Manulife estimates that the pro forma Minimum Continuing Capital and Surplus Requirements (MCCSR) ratio of MLI as at September 30, 2009 would have been approximately 256% versus the 229% MCCSR reported at the end of its third quarter. This ratio, on a pro forma basis, would be the highest since MFC became a public company.

=> what is the use to such high MCCSR ratio?

A Syndicate of underwriters being led by Scotia Capital Inc. and RBC Dominion Securities Inc. in a bought deal public offering has agreed to buy $2.5 billion in Manulife common shares at a price of $19.00. The public offering is expected to close on or about November 30, 2009, subject to satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

The Company has granted the underwriters an over-allotment option, exercisable in whole or in part at any time up to 30 days after closing, to purchase up to an additional $375,060,000 in common shares at the same offering price. Should the over-allotment option be exercised in full, the total gross proceeds of the offering would be $2,875,460,000.

The estimated net proceeds from the offering will be approximately $2.413 billion, after deducting the underwriting fee and before the estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company expects to use the net proceeds from this offering for general corporate purposes, which may include contributions of capital to its insurance and other subsidiaries, potential acquisitions or other growth initiatives. The Company has not yet made a determination as to how much of the proceeds will be invested in MLI and how much will be used for other corporate purposes. Following the offering, the Company also intends to retire the approximately $1 billion outstanding indebtedness under its Credit Facility with Canadian chartered banks using other cash resources of the Company.

=> 3.48% floatation cost, reasonable, but to me, still high. Other than paid down $1B debt, it do not have any plan yet :(

Michael Bell said, "While the common equity issue is expected to be dilutive to the Company's Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Return on Equity (ROE), the Company believes that strengthening its capital position is in the best long term interests of the Company and its shareholders."

=> at this point in time, Bilibala will keep Manulife's fair value at CA$32.0

The common shares to be offered have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (U.S. Securities Act), and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the U.S. Securities Act. This press release is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy such common shares in the United States or in any other jurisdiction where such offer is unlawful.

Manulife Financial is a Canadian-based financial services group serving millions of customers in 22 countries and territories worldwide. Operating as Manulife Financial in Canada and Asia, and primarily through John Hancock in the United States, the Company offers customers a diverse range of financial protection products and wealth management services through its extensive network of employees, agents and distribution partners. Funds under management by Manulife Financial and its subsidiaries were $437 billion (US$407 billion) as at September 30, 2009.

Manulife Financial Corporation trades as 'MFC' on the TSX, NYSE and PSE, and under '945' on the SEHK. Manulife Financial can be found on the Internet at www.manulife.com.

Manulife Financial 3q09 press release

• Charges due to lower corporate bond yields and changes in actuarial assumptions offset strong
operational results and gains due to equity market increases, resulting in a modest net loss for the quarter
• Margins improved through increased pricing, adjustments to sales compensation and more favourable reinsurance terms
• Strong sales growth across most products other than variable annuities generated a more balanced business mix
• Equity risk profile improved through hedging, pricing, product and asset mix changes
• Excellent credit experience given challenging markets – asset quality remains a competitive strength
• Two attractive acquisitions – AIC mutual funds and Pottruff & Smith travel insurance
• Equity markets, interest rates and credit will continue to impact the Company’s balance sheet and earnings
• Focused on building to fortress capital levels over time – expect benefits from merging U.S. operating subsidiaries at the end of 2009

=> 3q09 results is lower than Bilibala's expectation

TORONTO – Manulife Financial Corporation (“MFC”) today reported a net loss attributed to shareholders of $172 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2009, compared to net income of $510 million in the third quarter of 2008. The loss per share was $0.12 compared to fully diluted earnings per share of $0.33 in 2008. Current quarter results reflect equity market increases offset by lower corporate bond rates and changes in actuarial assumptions. The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company (“MLI”) reported a Minimum Continuing Capital and Surplus Requirements (“MCCSR”) ratio of 229 per cent as at September 30, 2009, up from 193 per cent last year.

In its second quarter earnings release, the Company included a forward-looking statement that estimated normalized earnings to be between $750 million and $850 million per quarter for the remainder of 2009 and 2010. The third quarter’s adjusted earnings from operations1 under this definition was approximately $803 million.

Chief Executive Officer Donald A. Guloien said, “Underlying earnings and performance were solid this quarter, but our results were negatively impacted by lower corporate bond rates and strengthening of reserves for changes in actuarial assumptions. We took actions to improve margins, increased our sales of products other than variable annuities, further improved our equity risk profile and continued to build toward fortress capital levels. We announced two attractive acquisitions and see numerous opportunities for strategic growth across a variety of markets. We remain highly disciplined and will continue to build upon Manulife’s scale and key strengths including our superior asset quality, well recognized brands, leading products and distribution, excellence in investment management, and strong positioning in key growth markets.”

FINANCIAL RESULTS

Chief Financial Officer Michael W. Bell said, “Continued declines in corporate bond rates required a further strengthening of actuarial reserves this quarter. We also increased reserves for changes in actuarial assumptions including those related to policyholder behaviour for variable annuity products. As a result of the decline in interest rates and changes in lapse assumptions, our interest rate sensitivity has increased.

Nevertheless, Manulife’s underlying business growth remains strong, and the quality of our investment portfolio remains a competitive strength. MLI’s MCCSR remains strong at 229 per cent, and we continue to take focused action to improve our risk profile and strengthen our capital flexibility as we grow our Company.

We anticipate that, at year end and subject to regulatory approvals, we will complete a reorganization of our U.S. subsidiaries which will deliver capital and operating efficiencies.”
Increases in equity markets in North America, where the S&P 500 increased 15 per cent and the TSX increased 10 per cent in the quarter, generated non cash gains of $1.2 billion. Of this, $1.0 billion related to segregated fund guarantees and the remainder was attributable to future fees assumed on variable universal life products and gains on equities supporting policy liabilities.
The Company reported a non cash charge of $1.2 billion resulting from the decrease in interest rates and corporate spreads during the quarter. Changes in interest rates impact the actuarial valuation of in-force policies by changing the assumption for future returns on the investment of net future cash flows. The decline in interest rates also impacted the investment returns assumed for new business written in the quarter, particularly in U.S. Insurance.

As indicated in the prior quarter, the Company completed its annual review of all actuarial assumptions in the third quarter. This resulted in a charge to earnings of $783 million, including $469 million due to changes in assumptions of policyholder behaviour for segregated fund guarantee products (a charge that was within the Company’s previously communicated expectations of less than $500 million). The remainder of the charge included assumption changes related to morbidity and other policyholder behaviour, partially offset by assumption changes related to mortality, expenses and investment related items.

The Company’s investment portfolio continued to perform well relative to overall market conditions, with $111 million of impairments in the quarter. The third quarter results included charges of $30 million for credit losses, $6 million for credit downgrades, $32 million in other than temporary impairments (“OTTI”) on equity positions in the Corporate and Other Segment, as well as $43 million on private equity investments.

MLI reported a MCCSR ratio of 229 per cent as at September 30, 2009, up from 193 per cent last year. Significant progress has also been made in the reorganization of the Company’s U.S. subsidiaries, with a planned merger of the main U.S. operating companies, under MLI, on track to be completed effective as of year end. The merger will result in a more efficient capital structure and provide improved operating efficiencies. Post reorganization, MLI expects to benefit from more stable capital ratios and a more diversified risk profile. While MLI’s MCCSR ratio is expected to decline as a result of the re-organization, the Company’s cushion for equity market declines over minimum regulatory requirements is expected to remain approximately unchanged because of the reduced equity sensitivity.

Bilibala's adjusted earning:
Bilibala's adjusted earning included all the market volatile items, because the nature of insurance business is market driven, there is no point to exclude them.
* Bilibala will exclude impairment because that is controled by management business decision.

GAAP EPS ($0.12)

add back:
Impact of annual basis changes $0.55
Impairment $0.08
Others $0.02

Bilibala's adjusted EPS $0.53
Bilibala's estimated EPS $0.64

Earning still look solid, as yield curve start heading up and US dollar get stablized, I think 4q09 results should look significantly better than 3q09.

11.17.2009

Warren Buffett and Bill Gates: Keeping America Great

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1329393420&play=1












China Life Oct YTD premium

國人壽保險股份有限公司(China Life Insurance Co. (China), 2628.HK, 簡稱:中國人壽)週二表示﹐今年1-10月保費收入總計達人民幣2,547億元。

中國人壽沒有提供上年同期可比數據﹐但該公司去年公佈﹐上年1-10月保費收入為人民幣2,648億元。

Premium down to RMB$2.547T from RMB$2.648T, down by 3.8%, in line with Bilibala's expectation.

11.15.2009

Econ data 09 week 46

評論
3Q GDP 3.5%
10月失業率 10.2%

11.11.2009

Shoppers Drug Mart 3q09 press release

November 11, 2009 – Toronto, Ontario – Shoppers Drug Mart Corporation (TSX: SC) today announced its financial results for the third quarter ended October 10, 2009.

Third Quarter Results (16 Weeks)
Third quarter sales increased 7.9% to $3.013 billion, with the Company continuing to experience strong sales growth in all regions of the country. The Company’s capital investment program, which has resulted in an 11.6% increase in drug store selling space compared to a year ago, continues to have a positive impact on sales growth. Effective marketing campaigns, combined with differentiated and impactful promotions utilizing the Shoppers Optimum loyalty card program, also contributed to top-line growth. On a same-store basis and excluding tobacco products, sales increased 4.8% during the quarter.

Prescription sales increased 9.7% in the third quarter to $1.481 billion, accounting for 49.1% of the Company’s sales mix compared to 48.3% in the same period last year. On a same-store basis, prescription sales increased 5.8%, driven by strong growth in the number of prescriptions filled, while increased generic utilization continued to have a deflationary impact on sales growth in the category. In the third quarter of 2009, generic molecules represented 52.8% of prescriptions dispensed compared to 51.5% of prescriptions dispensed in the third quarter of 2008.

Front store sales increased 6.2% in the third quarter to $1.532 billion, with the Company continuing to experience sales gains in all categories except tobacco. On a same-store basis and excluding tobacco products, front store sales increased 3.9%.

Third quarter net earnings increased 6.6% to $171 million or 79 cents per share (diluted) from $160 million or 74 cents per share (diluted) a year ago. This increase was driven by strong sales growth, improved purchasing synergies and a continued emphasis on cost reduction, productivity and efficiency, the benefits of which were partially offset by increased amortization and higher expenses at store-level associated with the continued expansion of the store network, along with stepped-up investments in pricing and promotional activities.

Commenting on the results, Jürgen Schreiber, President and CEO stated, “We are pleased with our third quarter results and our performance thus far in 2009, as we continue to deliver growth in these challenging economic times. The strength of our pharmacy programs and services, combined with effective front store merchandising and marketing initiatives, have us well-positioned heading into the holiday season and the final weeks of 2009.”

Year-to-date Results (40 weeks)
Sales for the first three quarters of 2009 increased 8.2% to $7.497 billion, with prescription sales up 10.3% and front store sales up 6.3%. On a same-store basis and excluding tobacco products, sales increased 4.8%, with prescription sales up 5.8% and front store sales up 4.0%. During the first three quarters of 2009, prescription sales accounted for 49.0% of the Company’s sales mix compared to 48.1% in the same period last year.

Net earnings for the first three quarters of 2009 increased 6.8% to $414 million or $1.90 per share (diluted) from $388 million or $1.78 per share (diluted) a year ago.

Store Network Development
During the third quarter, 37 drug stores were opened or acquired, 15 of which were relocations, and one smaller drug store was closed. The Company also added two Murale luxury beauty stores to its network during the quarter. At quarter-end, there were 1,282 stores in the system, comprised of 1,212 drug stores (1,170 Shoppers Drug Mart/Pharmaprix stores and 42 Shoppers Simply Pharmacy/Pharmaprix Simplement Santé stores), 66 Shoppers Home Health Care stores and four Murale stores. Drug store selling space was approximately 11.6 million square feet at the end of the third quarter, an increase of 11.6% compared to a year ago.

Dividend
The Company also announced today that its Board of Directors has declared a dividend of 21.5 cents per common share, payable January 15, 2010 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on December 31, 2009.

揭秘<反壟斷法>施行以來首例原告獲得補償案

http://big5.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/200911/11/t20091111_20392780.shtml

2009年11月11日 09:55
來源:檢察日報 黨小學


“消費者與行動通訊公司並沒有租賃關係,憑什麼收取月租費?月租費收取標準及各種套餐資費標準的差 異,實際上是對同等條件的消費者實行價格差別待遇,這在法律上是禁止的。”2009年3月,北京市問天律師事務所律師周澤以消費者身份向北京市東城區法院 提交訴狀,起訴中國行動通訊集團北京有限公司(下稱“北京移動”)和中國行動通訊集團公司(下稱“中國移動”)濫用市場支配地位,違法向消費者收取費用, 要求兩被告停止侵權行為。

日前,本案調解結案。中國移動將周澤的行動通訊服務轉為不收月租費的行動通訊服務,並以“感謝”的名義補償周澤1000元。周澤撤訴。

律師狀告中國移動

11 月9日,周澤接受了記者採訪。他說,對於中國移動收費不合理的問題,實際上早有感覺,有朋友建議他通過法律手段推動一下行動通訊收費的合理化。2008年 8月1日,《反壟斷法》實施,在認真研究這部法律之後,他發現“中國行動通訊收費,不只是不合理的問題,而是違法的問題”。他覺得“有必要行動一次”。

2009年3月30日,北京市東城區法院正式立案受理此案。6月5日,根據北京市高級法院關於案件管轄規定,壟斷糾紛應由中級法院受理,案件移送北京市第二中級法院。7月30日,北京市第二中級法院正式以壟斷糾紛為由立案。

周 澤的訴訟請求有兩項:一是請求判令北京移動停止濫用市場支配地位強行向其每月收取月基本費(俗稱“月租費”)的侵權行為,以及在行動通訊服務收費上對他與 其他同等交易條件的交易相對人實行差別對待的做法;二是判令兩被告共同退還近兩年來違法向其收取的月租費1200元。(中國移動推出的不同品牌以及同一品 牌行動通訊服務的不同套餐在價格上存在差異是毫無疑問的,但周澤研究了很長時間,也搞不清楚自己在消費中受到了怎樣的差別待遇。無奈,最後只好改變自己的 訴訟請求,只要求中國移動停止收取其“月租費”的做法。)

中國移動和中國聯通是在中國經營行動通訊業務的兩家公司,其中,中 國移動佔據中國行動通訊市場超過70%的份額。“《反壟斷法》將具有市場支配地位的經營者實施的‘沒有正當理由搭售商品,或者在交易時附加其他不合理的交 易條件’、‘沒有正當理由,對條件相同的交易相對人在交易價格等交易條件上實行差別待遇’等等行為,規定為濫用市場支配地位的行為,明確予以禁止。”周澤 認為中國移動侵害了他的合法權益,主要存在兩個方面:

一是中國移動與其並不存在租賃關係,但中國移動仍然收取“月租費”,對 其接受中國移動的通信服務附加交易條件。周澤說,手機是自己購買的,無論是打電話還是發短信,自己都在按照中國移動相應服務項目的收費標準付費,並未租用 中國移動享有所有權或使用權的任何物或權利。“也就是說我和中國移動之間並不存在任何租賃關係,但又不得不向中國移動交所謂的月租費,否則就要被停機。這 麼多年,一直被迫接受中國移動的這一附加條件!”

周澤強調,中國移動收取月租費的行為,不僅是《反壟斷法》禁止的經營者濫用市場支配地位的壟斷行為,也是《消費者權益保護法》規定的損害消費者權利的不公平交易行為。

二 是中國移動收取的月租費以及具體的通信服務價格,與對其他行動通訊消費者存在差異,是對條件相同的交易相對人實行交易價格差別待遇,且沒有正當理由。這些 年,中國移動除了推出“全球通”通信服務產品外,還陸續推出了神州行、動感地帶等產品。“在這些服務中,有的收月租費,有的不收;收月租費的,也遠遠低於 向我強制收取的每月50元,而且具體服務項目的資費標準也與我接受服務的項目收費不一致,但他們有一個共同特點:在通信服務上並無二致。”據此,周澤認為 中國移動對向他強行收取月租費的行為與其他消費者存在差別待遇和價格歧視,違反了《反壟斷法》。

中國移動拿“古老”文件辯駁

法庭上,中國移動辯稱,不存在對原告附加交易條件和價格差別待遇。

為 支援其主張,中國移動出示了多份文件,包括《郵電部關於加強移動電話機管理和調整移動電話資費標準的通知》、國家計委、資訊產業部制定的《電信資費審批備 案程式規定(試行)》、《資訊產業部經濟調節與通信清算司關於調整移動電話預付費SIM卡業務資費標準的通知》,以及北京市通信管理局關於北京移動“全球 通”資費方案備案的兩份通知。

“這些證據不足以證明中國移動收費合法,因為這些文件中的相關規定與去年實施的《反壟斷法》相 衝突,不能成為中國移動收費的合法性依據。”周澤反駁,並認為,即使嚴格執行“最古老”以致都成了“化石”的郵電部(1994)281號文件,收取50元 月租費也應是對所有行動通訊用戶收取,但現在只收取像他一樣的“全球通”用戶,就是對他實行價格歧視和附加交易條件的壟斷行為。

針 對反駁,中國移動辯稱,中國移動的“全球通”、“神州行”和“動感地帶”三大產品功能不同,收費方式自然不同,“中國移動收取的包括月租費在內的行動通訊 收費項目,執行的是政府定價,合理合法,不屬於在交易時附加交易條件的違法行為,也沒有對原告實行價格差別待遇。”

“這些文件恰恰反映出,中國移動對資費標準具有定價權,只是制訂價格方案後向政府部門備案。而一旦面對指責,中國移動卻將收費違背《反壟斷法》的責任推給政府。”周澤說。

除 了月租費和不同的資費計算標準爭議之外,中國移動是否處於壟斷地位是本案爭議的另一個重要焦點。《反壟斷法》規定,“一個經營者在相關市場的市場份額達到 二分之一的”或者“兩個經營者在相關市場的市場份額合計達到三分之二的”、或者“三個經營者在相關市場的市場份額合計達到四分之三的”,“可以推定經營者 具有市場支配地位”。“中國移動在行動通訊服務領域市場份額超過70%”,周澤據此認為中國移動的市場支配地位顯而易見。

但中國移動認為周澤對此沒有舉證。周澤反問,“中國移動的壟斷地位,地球人都知道,難道還要證明嗎?”

中國移動堅持認為行動通訊服務市場有競爭,不承認“存在壟斷”、“具有市場支配地位”。

和解的“隱痛”

經過9月7日、10月19日兩次庭審後,該案出現轉機,雙方均表示接受調解。

周 澤表示,經過法官做工作,出於對法院工作的理解和中國移動接受調解實際上已在一定程度上承認了自己的訴訟請求,遂接受法官建議,與中國移動達成和解協議: 中國移動將周澤的行動通訊服務轉為不收月租費的行動通訊服務,並以“感謝”的名義補償周澤1000元。周澤撤訴。

按照常規,協議內容應該寫進法院的裁定書中,遺憾的是上述和解內容僅僅記錄在法院的談話記錄中,裁定書僅稱:“因雙方當事人達成和解協議,准許周澤撤回起訴。”

這本身就是一種較量。周澤透露,就連“雙方當事人達成和解協議”這幾個字寫進裁定書的基本司法要求,中國移動也向法院提出要求不要寫,“我堅決反對,並得到法官的支援”。

“和解過程中,中國移動提出,鋻於中國移動是一個服務型企業,很在意社會聲譽,希望我不要對外發佈有關這個案件的資訊。我明確表示反對,認為這是對我言論自由和批評權利的限制,我不能接受。”周澤說中國移動的胸懷讓他不解。

中國移動為什麼是以“感謝”的名義對周澤進行補償,而不是他所訴求的“退還違法收取的月租費”?

周澤向記者介紹,法官在說服他接受調解條件過程中表示,無論以什麼名義對他進行補償,至少中國移動對行動通訊服務的收費不再那麼理直氣壯,因此沒在名目上較真,“能得到賠償,這是《反壟斷法》實施後的第一次。”

“我告對方,對方還感謝‘我’?感謝我促進了中國移動的服務?”周澤笑稱和解是給對方一個臺階下。

這是《反壟斷法》施行以來,國內出現的多例反壟斷訴訟中首例原告獲得被告補償的案件。

·記者訪談·

周澤:我為什麼同意和解

記者:為什麼要接受調解,而不堅持把官司打下去?

周澤:如果不接受調解,堅持把官司打下去,由法院作出判決,不外乎兩種結果,要麼判原告勝訴,要麼判被告勝訴。作為原告,能夠獲得法院的勝訴判決,當然是最好的結果。法院的判決一旦生效,就具有判例價值,將對同類案件的審理產生示範。

但 就本案起訴中國移動的壟斷行為,法院最終是否有勇氣判決中國移動敗訴,說實話,我沒有信心。現實告訴我,法院要判決中國移動這樣的大型國企敗訴,可能會考 慮很多法律之外的因素。因此,在不確定法院會判決我勝訴的情況下,法院主持調解,被告同意補償1000元且不再收月租費,無疑是最好的結果。

記者:是誰主動提出和解?怎麼達成?

周 澤:庭審後,雙方都表示願意調解,法官就讓雙方考慮和解方案。10月22日,法院告訴我對方同意不再收月租費,並進行一定補償,讓我考慮一下具體的補償數 額。23日,法官與我兩次通話,我說打這個官司不是為了錢,只是希望推動中國行動通訊服務收費的合理化,因此並沒有提數額,而是完全交由法官決定。

記者:改成不收月租費的通信服務是什麼通信服務?

周澤:目前,我還不知道他們怎麼改。我的理解是,繼續使用原來的號碼,但每月不用再交月租費了。無論怎麼改,收月租費都是我不能接受的,如果以後還向我收,哪怕是一塊錢,我都會繼續起訴。

記者:如果其他的消費者以同樣理由起訴,你預測一下會是什麼結果?

周澤:我認為法院可能仍會主持調解,並由雙方當事人達成與我相似的和解協議,而不會輕易作出判決。因為,判決消費者敗訴,于法于理都說不過去,而判中國移動敗訴,呵呵……

記 者:你認為本案的意義何在?周澤:我們雙方的和解協議雖然不能普遍適用於中國移動所有的消費者,但其示範意義是不言而喻的。已經有很多消費者給我打電話, 表示將參與到推動中國移動收費合理化的行動中來,如果中國移動還不改變其收費方案,恐怕不可能了。這就是該案的價值所在。

(責任編輯:張惠)

中國移動承諾業務量能耗下降20%

中廣網北京11月11日消息 工業和資訊化部、中國行動通訊集團公司今天在北京簽署《節能自願協議》,中國移動承諾,以2008年能源消耗為基準,到 2012年12月底實現單位業務量耗電下降20%的目標,實現節約用電118億度。這是中國通信業第一份節能自願協議。為了達到這一目標,中國移動將在國 家支援下深入推進“綠色行動計劃”。

工業和資訊化部圍繞十大產業調整和振興規劃的實施,把節能降耗減排作為應對金融危機、落實“ 保增長、擴內需、調結構”政策措施、促進工業經濟平穩較快發展的重要舉措。在通信業領域中,積極推動節能自願協議等節能減排新機制的應用。在大力促進通信 業健康快速發展的同時,促進兩化融合,制定通信業節能減排的政策措施,支援節能新技術、新工藝、新產品的開發、示範和推廣,加強節能減排標準的制定和應 用。

中國移動於2007年啟動了以節能減排為核心的“綠色行動計劃”,從企業自身、行業及社會三個層面發展綠色通信產業。在企業 內部推廣通信網路節能新技術和新設計,提高通信系統和配套設施能源使用效率,大範圍應用行動通訊基站智慧通風等自然冷卻技術及風能、太陽能等可再生能源。 在行業中,中國移動與53家主要供應商簽訂“綠色行動計劃”戰略合作備忘錄,共同制定並實施通信設備能效分級標準,不斷擴大通信產品“綠色包裝”使用範 圍,共同研發基站節能型空調,推廣SIM卡小卡化和回收再利用等。

(責任編輯:陳磊)

OPhone將比iPhone更好嗎?

http://mag.udn.com/mag/digital/storypage.jsp?f_MAIN_ID=323&f_SUB_ID=4280&f_ART_ID=221002

記者:Scirocco Pilota

台灣地區消費者可能無法立刻使用到OPhone系統及其手機,卻絕對有必要知道OPhone以及其發展狀況。這是全球第一大行動電話營運商:中國移動領先 全球的嘗試,中國移動投入許多資源打造了一個以Android為基礎,但卻完全不同的智慧型手機作業系統。很少人知道Android分為3種許可權等 級:Obilogation Free、 Strings Attached與Google Experience。明年將有超過20款手機搭載所謂的「特製Android系統」,如果中國移動的「OPhone計畫」取得成功,這個數字還會大幅升 高!

本文章相關圖片
▲台灣讀者熟悉的HTC Magic在中國以OPhone的面貌出現


OPhone:中國移動的秘密武器

一 聽到OPhone,許多人第一個聯想到的可能是「怎麼又來一個山寨iPhone機了?」,自從Apple iPhone於2007年問世後,坊間出現了無數類似「HiPhone」之類想要搭上順風車的仿冒品。但OPhone不但出身名門(採用Android系 統底層架構),還有一個世界上最大的富爸爸:中國移動公司的支持,如此強大的靠山讓它不成功也難。

用最簡單的方式解釋,OPhone就是 中國移動計畫推出的特殊版Android手機的統稱,但光從外觀上、你很難發現OPhone與Android介面有多少共同點!雖然底層也採用 Android架構,但OPhone上層UI介面已經完全換成中國移動的專屬的 OMS(Open Mobile System)系統,也加入不少OMS特有的函式庫(甚至提供了自己的SDK開發套件)。如果從Linux系統的角度來看,OMS可說是Android系 統的Distributions套件,就如同Debian跟Ubuntu的關係一樣。OPhone內還搭載了許多中國市場專屬、尤其是中國移動提供的特殊 移動通信服務。包括139推送電子郵件信箱(中國移動版本的「黑莓」Push電子郵件服務,但收費卻只是黑莓郵件服務的二十分之一,月租費5元人民幣)及 「飛信」無限量短信發送服務等等,貼近中國消費者的使用需求。

本文章相關圖片
▲由營運商自行研發專屬的智慧型手機系統,中國移動的「OPhone計畫」可謂全球電信業的創舉


全球第一大移動電信營運商的3G挑戰

多 數台灣讀者大概都因為遠傳電信收購案而聽過「中國移動」的名字,但知道中國移動是「世界第一大移動電信營運商」的人卻不多。根據英國市場調查公司 Portio Research日前公佈全球移動營運商的年營收總排名,中國移動以575億美元的年營業額高居榜首,而原先極被看好、也是Apple第一個合作的電信商 AT&T卻以總營收為493億美元次於中國移動、屈居排名世界第二,其他營運商KDDI、T-Mobile美國、Orange、軟銀日本及西班牙 電信等運營商都得往後站。中國移動的手機用戶數目高達3億5000萬戶、超過美國總人口數,中國移動的基地台數量高達23萬台,覆蓋97%的中國領土、從 喜馬拉雅山到吐魯番窪地。

中國移動公司的品牌價值是華人企業在世界的佼佼者:英國《金融時報》(Financial Times)剛公布的全球品牌排名中,中國移動高居第5位(品牌價值高達412億美元),而前4位都是美國企業。套一句筆者任職於電信設備供應商 Ericsson的朋友口中所述:國際電信設備商已經對台灣市場沒有興趣,因為整個台灣市場對3G設備的需求還沒有廣東移動(中國移動的廣東分公司,擁有 將近1億用戶)來的多。從這裡不難看出中國移動在全球通信產業的「重量級」地位。

本文章相關圖片
▲為了爭取年輕客戶,中國移動大手筆請來周董替其代言


由 營運商自行研發專屬的智慧型手機系統,中國移動的「OPhone計畫」可謂全球電信業的創舉,有趣的是這個計畫的促成者仍是iPhone!當Apple考 慮進軍中國市場時,龍頭老大中國移動自然是第一個選擇。但由於雙方對於拆帳方式始終無法達成共識,加以iPhone的3G規格與中國移動的TD- SCDMA系統不相容。最終Apple選擇了擁有WCDMA營運執照的中國聯通為合作伙伴,中國版iPhone已於上週末發表。雖然無緣銷售 iPhone,中國移動卻無法忽視智慧型手機市場的巨大商機。市場調查公司iSuppli剛發表的研究報告指出。隨著3G網路的普及,中國手機用戶對智慧 手機的接受程度正逐步提高。iSuppli預計2009年中國市場智慧手機銷量有望達到2120萬部、2010年將達3020萬部、2012年將增至 5430萬部、2013年將增至6360萬部。如何迎戰來勢洶洶的iPhone大軍?自行主導研發一個的優異智慧型手機作業系統是中國移動的戰略。

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▲經過了兩年多的努力,iPhone終於正式進入中國市場


鮮為人知的Google授權分級制


OPhone 能夠順利誕生,Google的開放態度功不可沒。回溯Google Android系統發展之初,希望藉由OHA成員的同盟壯大市場上的認同度,也希望透過OHA成員的能力來強化與加速Android 的開發。Google行動平台資深總監Andy Rubin 在2009年5月公開對媒體表示,2009年將有18~20款Android產品出現在手機市場上,更重要的Android將分為3種使用授權等 級:Obilogation Free、Strings Attached、Google Experience。最陽春的「Obilogation Free」產品完全不用Google的授權,手機製造商可自由採用Android底層架構、但也無法預設安裝任何Google提供的各種應用產品及 Android Market應用程式平台上的資源,手機製造商只能藉由自行開發預設應用軟體來增加產品吸引力。一般來說,如果不是電信營運商訂製的機種,通常都不會選擇 此形式的Android作業系統。

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▲雖然使用Android的底層,外觀看來OMS與Android有顯著差異


相 較於Obilogation Free,Strings Attached授權方式代表手機製造商需要經由Google認證,而至於授權機制為何與是否需要授權金皆非公開信息,可能包括如承諾對搭載 Android手機出貨量與Google是否認同產品設計等?好處是這類產品就可預裝Google設計的應用軟體(如Gmail、Google Calendar等等),目前市場上的多數Android產品都屬於此級授權。而最高一級的Google Experience授權方式除了可採用Google開發的應用外,手機製造商與電信營運商都必須承諾開放使用Android Market應用平台,並在機身上打上Google的商標。手機研發人員向筆者透露如果機身上只有Android機器人的標誌,則該機型僅屬於 Strings Attached授權。而像T-Mobile G1機型在後方打上Google標誌的機型則屬於Google Experience。目前在Android Market平台上的收費應用軟體銷售收入除了70%由設計者取得外,另外30%將分給電信營運商,代價是除了手機製造商需要由Google認證外,該電 信營運商也必須受到Google的授權。


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▲如果機身上只有Android機器人的標誌,則該機型僅屬於Strings Attached授權


站 在電信營運商的角度,類似Apple直接將App Store控管(以及收入現金流)權力一把抓的方式肯定讓營運商十分感冒。因為電信營運商還是希望確定自己能主導服務的提供(以及最重要的「收費」),在 Google對於拆帳、許可權的規則仍不完全透明的情況下,多數電信營運商儘管有興趣卻不願意明確表態;另外目前主要的行動平臺領導廠商與手機製造商,仍 以Symbin/Nokia具絕對市占領先,而Apple、RIM等製造商的產品相較於Google Android發展更明確且市場需求更穩定,多數電信營運商若是明確表態或者大量採用,可能壓縮到舊有合作廠商的出貨規模及造成舊有合作關係的緊繃。

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▲儘管iPhone的營收只佔手機市場總額的8%,但其利潤卻佔了市場總額的32%,其中App Store「螞蟻雄兵」的銷售收入功不可沒

美 國市場的研究報告指出,儘管iPhone的營收只佔手機市場總額的8%,但其利潤卻佔了市場總額的32%,其中App Store「螞蟻雄兵」的銷售收入功不可沒。中國移動深知Apple在App Store嘗到的甜頭,所以堅持不肯在中國市場與之拆帳,這也是後來雙方談判破裂,iPhone轉與聯通合作的原因之一。既然決定鐵了新OPhone要和 iPhone一爭高下,中國移動除了主導OMS(Open Mobile System)作業系統的研發外,還打造了一個名為Mobile Market的應用商店希望複製Apple的成功獲利模式。在Mobile Market軟體分類中包括多媒體、實用軟體、系統工具、通信輔助、網絡軟體等子分類;在遊戲類作品中,開發者可上架角色扮演、動作格鬥、體育競技、射擊 飛行、棋牌益智等遊戲分類,並與中國移動分享銷售收入。中國移動強調他們擁有超過4億的潛在消費族群,開發者將獲得70%的應用銷售利潤分享。預料 Mobile Market將會是中國移動的另一個吸金利器。

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▲中國移動除了主導OMS(Open Mobile System)作業系統的研發外,還打造了一個名為Mobile Market的應用商店希望複製Apple的成功獲利模式


全球業者紛紛支持

由 於中國巨大的市場潛力誘因與中國移動的強力支持,OPhone平台已經得到手機產業上下游業者的廣泛關注和支持。在晶片供應商方面,Marvell、高 通、MTK聯芯、展訊和天碁已推出多款相關的晶片解決方案提供手機製造商選擇;而聯想、LG、多普達、Dell、菲利浦、Moto、Samsung、中興 等十多家手機廠商正積極開發OPhone系統的智慧型手機。支援中國自主研發的3G通信規格TD-SCDMA 的OPhone手機也將在年內推出。

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▲ 由於中國巨大的市場潛力誘因與中國移動的強力支持,OPhone平台已經得到手機產業上下游業者的廣泛關注和支持

由 於採用Android的底層架構,所以理論上能推出Android產品的廠商都有技術推出OPhone機種。所以聯想可以作 OPhone、宏達電也可以作 OPhone,目前市場上宏達電已將台灣讀者熟悉的HTC Magic搭載OMS系統在中國以多普達 A6188 的型號進行銷售。倘若消費者真的不喜歡OPhone,也可自行透過重刷韌體的方式讓愛機又變回一台標準的Android手機,這給予了消費者許多使用彈 性。

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▲聯想也推出了稱為O1的OPhone手機

根 據問卷調查,將近80%的智慧手機使用者從未自行下載/加裝過任何軟體。這表示新機出廠時預裝的軟體功能非常重要,相比於針對美國消費者設計的 iPhone,OPhone擁有更多貼近中國當地使用者的功能(如飛信、139推送電子郵件服務等)。許多其他國家的電信營運商都在觀察「OPhone計 畫」的成敗與否?相較於非智慧型手機的產品設計與製造的毛利約在 10% 以下,智慧型手機的毛利儘管近年逐步下滑,卻仍能維持在毛利35%以上,但以往進入智慧型手機製造的門檻在軟、硬體兩端都明顯較高。智慧型手機最核心的門 檻—作業系統所需要耗費的成本過去不是單一手機製造商或是電信營運商所能負擔得起,而Andriod最具吸引力的部分,就是Google和所有開發者共同 負擔OS開發成本,甚至包括更上層的Middleware 與UI 等成本門檻較高的部分都可以分攤。iPhone在中國上市前4天僅售出4000台(比先前預估的十分之一還少),這或多或少說明了這款在全球所向披靡的手 機在中國市場似乎有些水土不服,未來iPhone與OPhone的戰爭將鹿死誰手?讓我們拭目以待。
本文章相關圖片
▲相比於針對美國消費者設計的iPhone,OPhone擁有更多貼近中國當地使用者的功能

11.06.2009

Econ data 09 week 45

USA
Overall
  • 3Q productivity-prelim up to +9.5% from +6.6% in 2Q (better, +6.5%)
  • Sep construction spending up to +0.8% from -0.1% in Aug (better, -0.2%)
Consumer
  • Oct ISM index up to 55.7 from 52.6 in Sep (better, 53.0)
  • Oct ISM services down to 50.6 from 50.9 in Sep (worse, 51.5)
  • Sep factory order up to +0.9% from -0.8% in Aug (better, +0.8%)
  • Oct auto sales up to 3.7M from 3.3M in Sep
  • Oct truck sales up to 4.2M from 3.5M in Sep
  • Sep wholesales inventories up to -0.9% from -1.3% in Aug (better, -1.0%)
  • Sep consumer credit down to -$14.8B from -$9.9B (worse, -$10.0B)

House

  • Sep pending home sales down to 6.1% from 6.4% in Aug (better, 0.0%)
Job
  • Oct unemployment rate up to 10.2% from 9.8% in Sep (worse, 9.9%)
  • Oct nonfarm payrolls up to -190k from -219k in Sep (worse, -175k)
  • Oct ADP employment report up to -203k from -227k in Sep (worse, -198k)
  • 10/31 initial jobless claims down to 512k from 532k last week (better, 522k)
  • 10/24 continuing jobless claims down to 5,749k from 5,817k last week (inline, 5,750k)

Canada

  • Oct unemployment rate up to 8.6% from 8.4% in Sep
  • Oct net change in employment down to -43.2k from +30.6k
  • Sep building permits down to +1.6% from +7.4%

Imperial Oil 3q09 press release

“Net income for the third quarter was $547 million, down 61 percent from the third quarter of 2008, but up 162 percent from the second quarter of 2009. Earnings in the third quarter were down from the same quarter in 2008 primarily due to lower Upstream crude oil and natural gas commodity prices as a result of the global economic downturn. Downstream earnings in the third quarter of 2009 were impacted by reduced demand for products, resulting in lower overall downstream margins.

Net income for the first nine months of 2009 was $1,045 million or $1.22 a share, versus $3,218 million or $3.60 a share for the first nine months of 2008.

Continued lower commodity prices and tight downstream margins resulted in challenging business conditions for the quarter compared to the same period last year. Imperial continues to weather this economic downturn well, with earnings supporting our investments in company growth projects through the down cycle. Our proven approach of focusing on those elements of the business within our control, combined with prudent financial management and disciplined capital investment, will continue to reward our shareholders in these uncertain times. (Oil price down from last year peak at a level above US$140/bbl to only US$70-80/bbl in 3q09.)

Imperial Oil continued its long-term focus and disciplined approach to capital investment. In the third quarter, capital and exploration expenditures increased to $575 million, up 60 percent from the same period last year. For the first nine months of 2009, capital and exploration expenditures were $1,604 million, an increase of 72 percent over the first nine months of 2008. The company continues to develop its outstanding portfolio of company growth projects, delivering new energy supplies which are vital to economic growth. (Bilibala thinks the Oil price will stay at US$80/bbl on average. Once the unemployment rate reach the peak early next year and the economy start to pick up in a more stable manner, oil price should reach US$100/bbl.)

During the first nine months of 2009, the company distributed $747 million cash to shareholders through dividends of $257 million and share repurchases of $490 million."

Third quarter items of interest
􀂃 Net income was $547 million, versus $1,389 million for the third quarter of 2008, and $209 million for the second quarter of 2009.
􀂃 Net income per common share was $0.64, versus $1.57 for the third quarter of 2008.
􀂃 Cash flow from operating activities was $698 million, compared with $1,635 million in the same period last year.
􀂃 Capital and exploration expenditures were $575 million, versus $360 million for the third quarter of 2008.
􀂃 Gross oil-equivalent barrels of production averaged 304,000 barrels a day, compared with 310,000 barrels a day in the same period last year.

Project updates
􀂃 Kearl oil sands project update
Following board approval of the first phase of Kearl in May, the project has been proceeding with
detailed design, procurement and construction activities with a current workforce of about 3,000
employees and contractors. Kearl will be developed in three phases and could ultimately produce
more than 300,000 barrels of bitumen a day before royalties. The first phase of the project is
expected to start up in late 2012. Imperial holds a 71-percent interest in the project and is the
operator in this joint venture with ExxonMobil Canada.

􀂃 Cold Lake surpasses one billion barrels of production
The company's Cold Lake heavy oil operation in northeastern Alberta has surpassed one billion
barrels of cumulative production. Only three other fields in Canada have achieved this milestone, and it is the only in-situ operation to have done so. During four decades of operation at Cold Lake, technological advancements have tripled recovery rates while reducing fresh water use and surface land disturbance.

􀂃 Cold Lake expansion
In September, Imperial filed amendment applications for the previously approved Cold Lake Nabiye project (2004). The proposed changes to the project will result in improved energy efficiency, reduced greenhouse gas and sulphur dioxide emissions, and reduced surface footprint. The Nabiye expansion is continuing to be advanced, and if sanctioned, will add about 30,000 barrels a day of production from a new plant. The expansion will access 250 million barrels of previously undeveloped resource at the Cold Lake heavy oil operation.

(Our world need more and more energy, and Bilibala don't think anyone nor any source can replace oil & gas in the coming 10 years. Imperial Oil has a rich oil sand portfolio to meet continue growth need and the global demand)

Third quarter 2009 vs. third quarter 2008
Upstream net income in the third quarter was $439 million versus $999 million in the same period of 2008.

Earnings decreased primarily due to lower crude oil and natural gas commodity prices of about $950 million as a result of the global economic downturn. Lower realizations were partially offset by lower royalty costs due to lower commodity prices of about $200 million, the impact of a lower Canadian dollar of about $115 million and lower energy costs of about $95 million.

The average price of Brent crude oil in U.S. dollars, a common benchmark for world oil markets, was $68.29 a barrel in the third quarter, down about 41 percent from the corresponding period last year. The company's realizations on sales of Canadian conventional crude oil mirrored the same trend as world prices, decreasing about 43 percent in the third quarter, compared to the same period last year.

The company’s average realizations for Cold Lake heavy oil also declined about 40 percent in the third quarter of 2009, compared to the corresponding period last year. The decline was less than that of lighter crude oil, due to the narrowing price spread between light crude oil and Cold Lake heavy oil.

The company's average realizations for natural gas averaged $2.90 a thousand cubic feet in the third quarter, down from $9.20 in the same quarter last year.

Gross production of Cold Lake heavy oil averaged 145 thousand barrels a day during the third quarter, versus 143 thousand barrels in the same quarter last year. The cyclic nature of production at Cold Lake and lower maintenance activities contributed primarily to the increase in production in the third quarter of 2009.

The company's share of Syncrude's gross production in the third quarter was 78 thousand barrels a day, versus 79 thousand barrels in the third quarter of 2008. Gross production of conventional crude oil averaged 25 thousand barrels a day in the third quarter, essentially the same as the corresponding period of 2008. Gross production of natural gas during the third quarter of 2009 decreased to 291 million cubic feet a day from 309 million cubic feet in the same period last year. The lower production volume was primarily a result of natural reservoir decline.

Net income from Downstream was $62 million in the third quarter of 2009, compared with $270 million in the same period a year ago. When compared to the same period in 2008, earnings in the third quarter of 2009 were negatively impacted by reduced demand for products, resulting in lower overall downstream margins of about $160 million. North American refining margins in the third quarter of 2008 were significantly higher as a result of Hurricane Gustav in the Gulf of Mexico. Also impacting third quarter 2009 earnings were lower sales volumes due to the slowdown in the economy.

Chemical net income was $19 million in the third quarter, compared with $38 million in the same quarter last year. Earnings were lower in the quarter primarily due to lower margins for polyethylene products.

Net income effects from Corporate and other were $27 million in the third quarter, compared with $82 million in the same period of 2008. The decrease in earnings effects in the third quarter reflected changes in share-based compensation charges.

Cash flow from operations was used to fund growth projects such as Kearl. The company will continue to evaluate its share-purchase program in the context of its overall capital activities.
In the third quarter of 2009, the company built $68 million of cash while funding its higher capital program requirements from operating cash flow.

First nine months 2009 vs. first nine months 2008
Net income for the first nine months of 2009 was $1,045 million or $1.22 a share on a diluted basis, versus $3,218 million or $3.60 a share for the first nine months of 2008.

First nine months highlights
􀂃 Net income was $1,045 million, down from $3,218 million in the first nine months of 2008.
􀂃 Net income per common share decreased to $1.22 compared to $3.60 in the same period of 2008.
􀂃 Cash flow from operations was $664 million, versus $3,351 million in the same period of 2008.
􀂃 Capital and exploration expenditures were $1,604 million, up 72 percent.
􀂃 Gross oil-equivalent barrels of production averaged 292 thousands of barrels per day, compared to 309 thousands of barrels per day in the first nine months of 2008.
􀂃 Imperial distributed a total of $747 million cash to shareholders in 2009 through dividends and share repurchases, compared with $2,048 million in 2008.
􀂃 Per-share dividends declared in the first three quarters of 2009 totaled $0.30, up from $0.28 in the same period of 2008.

TransCanada 3q09 press release

CALGARY, Alberta – November 4, 2009 – TransCanada Corporation (TSX, NYSE: TRP) (TransCanada or the Company) today announced net income for third quarter 2009 of $345 million or $0.50 per common share. TransCanada’s Board of Directors also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.38 per common share. (inline with Bilibala's expectation)

“TransCanada continues to post solid earnings and strong cash flows on the strength of our diverse energyinfrastructure business. Third quarter earnings were ahead of last year for our pipelines and natural gas storage assets, while the economic downturn continues to impact power revenues,” said Hal Kvisle, TransCanada’s president and chief executive officer. (Pipeline & Power Generation is a defensive sector during recession, because the business is based on seasonal demand rather than following economic cycle.)

“We made significant progress during the quarter executing the major projects within our $22 billion capital program. TransCanada is well positioned to fund this unprecedented growth. The carrying costs and dilution associated with financing this multi-year program continues to have a near-term impact on our earnings and cash flow per share. However, we are confident that our capital program will generate significant growth in cash flows and earnings over the next four years as our large scale, highly attractive projects commence operations.” (Continue expansion through acquisition and in house construction helps TransCanada's revenue to keep growing in future years. Canada currently having shortage in power supply and population increase will keep pipeline and power demand high.)

Third Quarter 2009 Highlights
(All financial figures are unaudited and in Canadian dollars unless noted otherwise)
􀂃 Net income of $345 million or $0.50 per common share
􀂃 Comparable earnings of $335 million or $0.49 per common share
􀂃 Comparable earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $994 million
􀂃 Funds generated from operations of $772 million
􀂃 Dividend of $0.38 per common share declared by the Board of Directors
􀂃 Awarded a 20-year contract to build, own and operate a $1.2 billion, 900 megawatt (MW) power generating station in Oakville, Ontario
􀂃 Issued $550 million of cumulative redeemable first preferred shares
􀂃 Continued to advance $22 billion capital program

TransCanada reported net income for third quarter 2009 of $345 million ($0.50 per common share) compared to $390 million ($0.67 per common share) for third quarter 2008.

Comparable earnings were $335 million ($0.49 per common share) in third quarter 2009 compared to $366 million ($0.63 per common share) for the same period in 2008. This decrease was primarily due to lower power prices and volumes sold in Western Power and reduced generation volumes from New England and Bruce Power. (inline with expect)

Partially offsetting these decreases were higher earnings from Canadian pipelines, natural gas storage, Ravenswood acquired in August 2008 and the start up of Portlands Energy and the Carleton wind farm. (Bilibala expected a colder winter, TransCanada should be benefit from this)

Comparable earnings per common share in third quarter 2009 was further reduced compared to the same period last year due to an 18 per cent increase in the average number of shares outstanding following the Company’s issuances of 58.4 million and 35.1 million common shares in second quarter 2009 and fourth quarter 2008, respectively. Proceeds from the offerings were used to fund the acquisition of additional interests in Keystone and for other capital projects, general corporate purposes and to repay short-term debt. TransCanada’s $22 billion capital program is expected to boost cash flow and earnings in the coming years as projects come on-line. (The new shares issues are justified based on the projects listed below given continue monitor their status and performance in future are needed.)

Comparable earnings in third quarter 2009 and 2008 excluded $10 million of after tax net unrealized gains and $2 million of after tax net unrealized losses, respectively, resulting from changes in the fair value of proprietary natural gas inventory in storage and natural gas forward purchase and sale contracts.

Comparable earnings in 2008 also excluded $26 million of favourable income tax adjustments.
Comparable EBITDA in third quarter 2009 was $994 million compared to $1,066 million in third quarter 2008.

Funds generated from operations in third quarter 2009 were $772 million compared to $711 million in third quarter 2008.

Notable recent developments in Pipelines, Energy and Corporate include:

Pipelines:
􀂃 On August 14, 2009, TransCanada purchased ConocoPhillips’ remaining interest in Keystone for US$553 million plus the assumption of US$197 million of short-term debt. TransCanada now owns 100 per cent of this project.

TransCanada also assumed responsibility for ConocoPhillips’ share of the capital investment required to complete the project, resulting in an incremental commitment of US$1.7 billion through the end of 2012.

The first phase of the pipeline is now approximately 90 per cent complete and TransCanada expects to begin filling the line in the fourth quarter of this year with deliveries of oil to the U.S. Midwest commencing in first quarter 2010.

Keystone is currently seeking the necessary regulatory approvals in Canada and the U.S. to build and operate an expansion and extension of the pipeline system that will provide additional capacity of 500,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) from Western Canada to the Gulf Coast in 2012.

In September 2009, the National Energy Board (NEB) held a hearing to review the application for the Canadian portion of the Keystone Gulf Coast expansion with a decision expected in early 2010. Permits for the U.S. portion of the expansion are expected by mid-2010. Construction of the Keystone expansion is expected to begin in 2010 once TransCanada receives all the necessary regulatory approvals.

When completed, the approximately US$12 billion Keystone pipeline will be one of the largest oil
delivery systems in North America with the capacity to deliver 1.1 million bbl/d from Western Canada to the largest refining markets in the United States.

Keystone has secured long-term commitments for 910,000 bbl/d for an average term of 18 years, which represents 83 per cent of the commercial design of the system.
The pipeline is expected to begin generating EBITDA in first quarter 2010 when oil begins flowing to Wood River and Patoka, Illinois. EBITDA is expected to increase through 2011 and 2012 as future phases of Keystone become operational.

Based on current long-term commitments of 910,000 bbl/d, Keystone is expected to generate EBITDA of approximately US$1.2 billion in 2013, its first full year of commercial operation serving both the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast markets.

If volumes were to increase to 1.1 million bbl/d, Keystone would generate approximately US$1.5 billion of annual EBITDA. In the future, the pipeline could be economically expanded from 1.1 million bbl/d to 1.5 million bbl/d based on market demand.

􀂃 On September 28, 2009, TransCanada began work on the 160 kilometre (km) Red Earth section of the North Central Corridor (NCC) pipeline that is expected to be complete by April 2010. The 140 km North Star section has been completed and two 13 MW compressor units at the Meikle River compressor station were operational on May 15, 2009 and August 21, 2009 respectively.

The NCC project is a 300 km natural gas pipeline in the northern section of the Alberta System. It will provide capacity needed to deal with increasing gas supply in northwest Alberta and northeast B.C., declining gas supply in northeast Alberta, growing markets within the province, and help deliver more gas to interconnecting pipelines at the Alberta-Saskatchewan border.

The NCC pipeline is expected to reduce fuel consumption on the entire Alberta System by
approximately 50 per cent which is expected to result in shipper savings of between $50 million-$75 million per year.

􀂃 The Alaska Pipeline Project continues to move forward, with the joint TransCanada and ExxonMobil project team actively advancing the engineering, technical, commercial, environmental and stakeholder engagement work leading to the project's initial open season targeted for completion by July 2010.

Energy:
􀂃 On September 30, 2009 the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) awarded TransCanada a 20-year clean energy supply contract to build, own and operate the 900 MW Oakville Generating Station in Oakville, Ontario. A contract has now been finalized with the OPA.

TransCanada expects to invest approximately $1.2 billion in the natural gas-fired, combined-cycle plant, scheduled to start producing power by the end of 2013.

􀂃 Commissioning of the first phase of the Kibby Wind Power project began in September 2009. Twentytwo of the 44 turbines have been constructed and were in service effective October 30, 2009. Roads and foundations for the remaining 22 turbines will be completed this year and the turbines are expected to be installed and operational by the end of third quarter 2010. Kibby will have the capacity to produce 132 MW.

􀂃 Construction of the approximately $670 million, 683 MW Halton Hills Generating Station is continuing on schedule and the facility is anticipated to be in service in the summer of 2010. All of the power produced by the facility will be sold to the OPA under a 20-year power purchase agreement.

􀂃 TransCanada began construction of the US$500 million Coolidge Generating Station in August 2009. The 575 MW power facility is expected to be on-line in second quarter 2011. All of the power produced by the facility will be sold to the Phoenix, Arizona based utility Salt River Project under a 20-year power purchase agreement.

The simple-cycle, natural gas-fired peaking facility will provide a quick response to peak power demand. The facility will also provide reserve capacity and have the ability to generate power on short notice to support power reliability in the region.

􀂃 Initial brush clearing work for the 212 MW Gros-Morne wind farm in Québec has been completed. Clearing for the 58 MW Montagne-Sèche wind farm will be completed by the end of November 2009. The Montagne-Sèche project and phase one of the Gros-Morne wind farm are expected to be operational by 2011. Gros-Morne phase two is expected to be operational by 2012.

These are the fourth and fifth Québec-based wind farms under development by Cartier Wind, which is 62 per cent owned by TransCanada. These two wind farms are expected to have a capital cost of approximately $340 million. Once these two phases are complete, Cartier Wind will be capable of producing 590 MW of electricity. All of the power produced by Cartier Wind is sold to Hydro- Québec Distribution under a 20-year power purchase agreement.

􀂃 Progress continues on the refurbishment and restart of Bruce A Units 1 and 2 with work now advanced to the re-assembly of the reactors. As of September 30, 2009, Bruce A had incurred approximately $3.1 billion in costs for the refurbishment and restart of Units 1 and 2. TransCanada believes that the work on Units 1 and 2 is now approximately 75 per cent complete, with the bulk of the highly technical, high risk work now finished. Although a significant amount of work remains to be done, most of this work is conventional power plant construction activity.

The project has experienced delays and TransCanada now expects that Unit 2 will be restarted mid-2011, with Unit 1 expected to follow approximately four months thereafter. The impact of this delay is mitigated by the previously announced extension of the operating lives of Unit 3 to 2011 and Unit 4 to 2016, with further life extensions expected as additional reactor optimization activities proceed.

TransCanada continues to work closely with Bruce Power to address productivity and overall project management and notes that there have been recent, significant successes in this area.

Corporate:
􀂃 TransCanada and its subsidiaries held cash and cash equivalents of $2.4 billion at September 30, 2009.

􀂃 On September 30, 2009, TransCanada completed a public offering of 22 million cumulative redeemable first preferred shares. Net proceeds from the $550 million preferred share offering are expected to be used by TransCanada to partially fund capital projects, for general corporate purposes and to re-pay short-term debt of TransCanada and its affiliates.

􀂃 TransCanada is well positioned to fund its existing capital program through its growing internallygenerated cash flow, its dividend reinvestment and share purchase plan, and its continued access to capital markets. TransCanada will also continue to examine opportunities for portfolio management, including an ongoing role for TC PipeLines, LP in the financing of TransCanada’s capital program.

11.05.2009

Opinion on China Banks

做中資股的股東感覺特別安心,因為它們每季須公布業績,讓你知道公司最新情況。
大部分中資銀行在上星期公布了第三季度業績,若它們成績符合預期,我會更加安心,可惜不是。

工行公布第三季純利為三百四十億元人民幣(下同),計及上兩季,累積盈利約一千億元,較去年稍低。到目前為止,工行每季約賺三百至三百五十億元,若第四季能保持的話,全年盈利便達一千三百億元。不過,去年中國政府落力冷卻市場,大部分銀行在第四季出現巨額撥備,令盈利減少,故此去年工行全年盈利只得一千一百億元。

中行最平無人知悉今年會否再有類似的巨額撥備,我個人意見是有,但未必像去年一樣多;我預期工行今年盈利約為一千二百億元,或每股賺港幣四毫。以上週收市價六元三角計算,其市值約為二萬一千億港元,市盈率約十五倍半。工行貴為全球市值最大的銀行,增長速度可能逐漸放緩,惟它仍然會增長,我預期每年增長幅度約一成至一成半,十五倍半的市盈率頗為吸引,但已不及往昔。

建行( 939) 第三季盈利為三百億元, 首三季加起來賺八百六十億元, 以工行的準則推算,建行全年盈利應為一千零五十億元,即每股賺港幣五毫。以每股六元八角計算,市值約為一萬六千億港元,市盈率十三點三倍,比工行便宜,我認為仍然是一項好投資,儘管不再是極度吸引。至於中行,第三季賺二百一十億元,首三季合共賺六百二十億元,若第四季純利達一百三十億元,全年便可賺七百五十億元,以每股四元五角計算,其市值約為一萬一千五百億港元,市盈率十三倍,比建行更平。

港股應公布季度業績我們亦可以資產淨值,來比較這三隻內銀股,工行的每股資產淨值為一元九角三分;建行為二元三角;中行則是一元九角四分。跟股價相比,工行是三者中最貴,中行則最平。這未必是最好的評審標準,因為資產質素及管理層的水準,更加影響公司的盈利能力。

投資組合方面,我看不到有任何理由作出變更,雖然建行今天的股價比工行便宜,而中行則更平,但差異未至於需要為其額外負擔一筆交易徵費。如果我是一個活躍的投資者,可能會沽工行換馬建行或中行,但我相信大部分的讀者,都寧願採取一個溫和舒適的投資態度。

當收到這些中資銀行的季度業績,讓大家清楚知道手持的內銀股的最新情況,大家應該質疑香港的監管機構,為何對在港上市的大公司沒有類似要求。特別是當滙豐的董事既然每季向美國監管機構公布業績,為什麼不讓持股更多的香港股東了解最新情況?若股東的知情權不受重視,有可能導致謠言滿天飛。滙豐作為大藍籌的一哥,若能率先在港公布季度業績,將能加強我們信心。

天下第一仓 拨 论尽三大内银股 东尼 11月5日

11.04.2009

Canada 2010 Outlook

加拿大一度是港人外移的「天堂」,可是,当回归后香港表面一切如常寻且经济活力又动起来之后,港人便生落叶归根之念,纷纷卖掉或租出加国物业,重投香港怀抱;这种做法是否正确,因人亦即因环境、背景不同而异,不能一概而论。

大体而言,和香港比较,加拿大经济有如一潭死水,但现在似乎已有一些变化;自从「金融海啸」之后,加拿大的保守财金政策(包括裁削预算开支及严管金融活动等)成效渐彰,加上近年她采取了「一篮子减税」政策,降低最高税率、提高免税额、增加资本性投资税务豁免,效益已见;在金融机构相继倒闭或需政府注资的新闻日有所闻的情形下,加拿大银行基本上都能安度危机,成为西方银行界的奇葩。

「金融海啸」来袭,美企业的加拿大分厂无法不受波及,而美国消费市场衰退则打击加拿大对美国的直接出口,令加拿大失业率一路攀升。然而,近来加拿大失业率开始下降,当地经济学家(如Scotia Economics)认为这是经济开始健康回升而非偶生事件,八月份的失业率百分之八点七应为最高点,九月微顺至百分之八点四(净就业增三万一千多个职位)。这种转变并非因为美国市场复苏,而是对本地市场比较敏感进而能够作出弹性适应的小企业(僱员百名以下)已走出衰退的阴影。小企业僱员占全加私营企业总就业人数百分之六十七,但对失业率的「贡献」只有百分之四十三;反观五百僱员以上的大厂,僱员占总就业人数百分之十三,惟构成百分之三十五的失业率。非常明显,大厂中有不少是美企分厂或产品以美国市场为主,因而受创较重。

和失业率一样,加拿大的物业市场亦有转好之象,九月份的平均销售量已较去年同期增百分之一点五,而平均单位售价同期升百分之十四。这些数字特别是和香港市场比较,真是微不足道,但在西方物业市道仍处下降轨的现在,已属难能可贵。值得注意的还有,据Scotia Economics的分析,楼价上扬并非「投机者(过去是港台如今是内地豪客)入市」,而是供应量严重不足(serious housing shortage)。加拿大独有(?)的「登记—卖出比率」(Listing-to-Sales ratio)去月是一点五一,为二○○四年同月以来最低(显示供求平衡的基准比率为二)!
由于加拿大非「金融海啸」重灾区,居民所受财政创伤不重,等于基础较稳,回升(复苏)便较为有力。美国家庭今年第二季的净总资产值较○七年年底跌百分之十七,加拿大的同类数字只减百分之五;同一来源估计加拿大家庭九月底可动用的净资产值在六千三百五十亿至一万亿美元之间,「机会」一旦来临,加拿大经济将有不错的表现。

对于与加拿大银行往来的香港人来说,由于加银行业无资不抵债的难题,因此银行存款远较安全,Scotia的资料显示二十国集团的政府平均负债为GDP的百分之八,加拿大的只在百分之三至四之间;在经合组织(OECD)中,加拿大银行最稳健;标准的一级资本负债比率为百分之七,但加拿大六大银行达百分之八点五……。在投机活动热火朝天的时候,加拿大银行的业绩表现肯定「滞后」,但在比较淡静的市场情况下,加拿大银行显然较为可取!

比较健康的经济表现,充分反映在加元滙价上,昨天加元兑零点九三美元(三月底只兑零点七七美元),这种趋势令「顺藤摸瓜」式论者指出美元加元平兑快现,对此笔者不敢表态,笔者知道的只是比起美国政府,加拿大政府更乐见其滙价趋强。加拿大物产丰富,人所共知,加元因而是所谓「商品货币」(commodity currency),天然资源特别是能源有价,加上经济表现不俗,加元滙价(相对美元及陪葬的港元)上扬,情理中事;虽然加国央行行长加尼(M. Carney)去周表示,近期加元滙价上升可能抵销了经济及金融市场改善带来的好处,但他同时认为加拿大经济已有力在中止刺激经济方案后仍增长。在当前的经济环境,加拿大央行步澳洲央行加息后尘的可能性大大存在。

投读者所好,亦谈谈加拿大股票。由于油价在经济增长似有若无之下依然上升,令人进一步看好油价;万一经济复苏较明显的增长,油价无法不大幅弹升,不少分析者因而看淡货车及空运业,以不断上升的能源开支会使它们的利润增长有限。这种形势令人看好铁道股。加拿大地大路长,铁道纵横,铁道股占相当比重,但哪种铁道股值得投资?笔者是门外汉,惟看「股圣」毕非德的公司持有大量加拿大贝灵顿北方(股市编号BNI)的股票,大家不妨加以留意。截至六月底,巴郡持有该公司七千六百八十多万股(为其股票发行量百分之二十二点六),当时值五十六亿美元;据巴郡年报,其购入价在七十二至八十四美元之间,现价在七十六至七十七美元升沉,其价偏软皆因该公司刚公布去年业绩大倒退……。毕非德无宝不落,巴郡「揸重货」的原因是看好铁路运输而BNI是佼佼者。笔者并非建议入货,但有余资者不妨和投资顾问商量并评估毕非德的正误。(林行止 文)

Iterview with Warren Buffett by FOX Business Network's Liz Claman

This is the transcript of the interview with Warren Buffett by FOX Business Network's Liz Claman. You can also watch the video below.

LIZ CLAMAN, FOX BUSINESS NETWORK ANCHOR: Let's get to the story of the day. Berkshire Hathaway making this huge bet on the railroads. One in particular, acquiring Burlington Northern Santa Fe in a deal worth about $44 billion. Let's talk to the man behind the deal. It was all his idea. On the phone, Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Hello, Warren, how are you?

WARREN BUFFETT, CHAIRMAN/ CEO, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY: Hi, Liz.

CLAMAN: What did you do? Did you wake up one day and say, " I think I'll spend another $26 billion in cash and stock for a railroad."? How did this come about?

BUFFETT: It came about because our board had a meeting (ph) scheduled for a year down in Fort Worth. The reason we have three different businesses we own in Fort Worth. And my Debbie Ballsonnick (ph), my assistant said, "Let's do the next one in Fort Worth and check out those companies." So, we went down there a week ago last Thursday. And I went down a couple of hours earlier -- early because there were two people I wanted to see. One, my friend John Roach and then the other one was Matt Rose over at BNSF. And while I was over there, we had about ten minutes alone after some vice presidents made a presentation. And I said, "Matt, if you're ever looking for a home for the railroad, Berkshire would make a good one." And he didn't throw me out of the office, so the next day I made him an offer, and he said he would take it to the directors and the rest is history.

CLAMAN: So, it's a ten-minute meeting and then a week. That's awfully fast, but this is how you operate. You had already owned, of course, about 24 percent of Burlington Northern. What was it that crystalized your belief in that 10 minutes or the vice president's presentation that you ought to buy the whole thing?

BUFFETT: It wasn't -- it wasn't -- you know, I felt good about it from the time we bought our first stock in 2006. But if we hadn't scheduled the meeting down there, probably wouldn't have happened. At least it wouldn't have happened now. But I -- you know, I like the business very much. I think the management is the best there is, and, like I say, when I didn't get thrown out of the office, I made it specific, and it was a good offer from their standpoint. And they decided to accept it. And now we're going to own a railroad. And we never fool around on things, Liz. I mean, I tell the lawyers, get this thing done, you know.

CLAMAN: I think Debbie Ballsonnick, your assistant who thought it best to put the meeting down there should get the big high five. No doubt at all.

BUFFETT: Well, yes, you'll see we didn't have an investment banker on the deal, but maybe we should have put her down.

CLAMAN: She's smart enough to do it. What is it, Warren, you see in the railroad transport area versus trucking or air cargo?

BUFFETT: Well, the rails move a freight at a much more environmentally friendly way than the truckers do. And they also only use about a third of the fuel. So, it's helping -- it helps our trade balance in the long run. It helps in terms of the atmosphere. It is a very, very efficient, effective, environmentally friendly way of moving freight. And, you know, our rail system is a huge asset to the country.

CLAMAN: BNI, of course, hauls about 10 percent of the nation's electricity-generating coal. Is this, Warren, a bet somehow on coal?

BUFFETT: Well, they haul a lot of coal and coal from the Powder River Basin in the West -- is more competitive, it's lower-sulfur coal than in the East. So, it will be around a long time. But coal, over the long run, coal will diminish in relative importance.

CLAMAN: There's a growing anti-rail lobby in Washington right now. I know you know because you do your homework on this stuff with a push by the shippers to re-regulate the rails -- the Railroad Antitrust Enforcement Act, if you will. Do you have any friends in Washington who assured you that railroads would not be re-regulated? Because I would imagine if the Obama administration went along with the shippers to regulate the rails, that might hurt your investment.

BUFFETT: Well, I would say since the Staggers Act back in 1980, which diminished the regulation substantially, you've had enormous progress with the rail system. You've decreased prices on inflation-adjusted terms significantly. So, I would say that the deregulation that took place starting in starting in 1980 is actually benefited the shippers enormously. And we're moving far, far more freight with using far less fuel, very efficiently. My guess is that people will see the rail for what they are, really an outstanding way of moving freight around the country.

CLAMAN: Cheapest, best way. But then there's cap-and-trade, Warren. Some analysts are very skittish about coal and a possible backlash if cap-and-trade goes through. You mentioned now -- you said, we're going to see a diminishing of coal use. But what do you think cap-and-trade would do to the business if that went through?

BUFFETT: It won't change the composition of what utilities are doing tomorrow or next week or next year. The utilities over time are going to use less coal and probably more nuclear. Our own utility, for example, uses wind very substantially in Iowa. So, over time, coal is going to diminish somewhat. Now, I think that will hit Eastern coal more than Western coal, but that's a fact of life over a considerable period of time. And that's true whether there's cap-and-trade or not, yes.

CLAMAN: The way you structured this deal, you're using some Berkshire stock for this and then $16 billion, I believe, in cash to pull it off. The Berkshire board approved a what? -- 50-to-1 split for the Class B(ph) shares. Why not all cash, Warren? Are you trying to preserve your cash at this point?

BUFFETT: I like to have a very comfortable level of cash. This is also the minimum amount of stock we can give and still have people be able to elect a tax-free deal that own BNSF stock currently. If we were going to use -- I don't like using stock, I can tell you that. I don't like issuing Berkshire shares.

CLAMAN: Is this the first time you've used stock?

BUFFETT: No. No, we've used it before. In fact, if you go back to (INAUDIBLE) deal, that was an all-stock deal. But generally speaking, I'm not enthused about using stock. But using 40 percent and considering the fact we already own some, which we also bought for cash, we're mostly using cash in this transaction.

CLAMAN: You just mentioned the tax-free aspect. Can you clarify a little bit on that?

BUFFETT: Well, 40 percent of the deal will be stock, and everybody will be able to opt whether they want stock or cash. And if less than 40 percent opt for stock, they get an all-stock allocation. And if more than 40 percent, still, people who opt for stock will get mostly a stock allocation. And to the extent they get stock, it will be a tax-free exchange.

CLAMAN: To acquire a company of this size when transportation demand is down, of course, as you said, is really a bet on the U.S. economy. In fact, in the release you called it an all-out wager on the economic future of the United States. When do you see the total recovery taking hold?

BUFFETT: I don't know. But it doesn't really make any difference in terms of this acquisition. If we're going to hold something for a hundred years, the next week or month or year doesn't really make any difference. If we hold it a hundred years, I guarantee you there will be some recessionary years in that period. And it really doesn't make any difference whether it's the first year or the fifth year or the eighteenth year. We're in for keeps.

CLAMAN: It's funny you did this with the rails because just two weeks ago we had Bob Oldstein of the Oldstein Funds on saying the rails are overstating their earnings and underdepreciating their equipment. Do you see it that way? Did you look into that?

BUFFETT: It's true. I didn't have to listen to that, but it's true any company that has long-life assets is replacing assets that they bought many years ago with things that cost more money now. That's true of our utility business, that's true of any business. It's true -- if you build a plant that 30 years ago had a 30-year life. When you go to replace that same plant, it's going to cost you more money. That's a fact of life in an inflationary economy.

CLAMAN: One year ago in September, we were all so nervous, and that's when President Bush and Hank Paulson pushed through T.A.R.P. Since then, we've had the stimulus. You have said when you treat a patient with such a huge amount of medicine, the likes of which we've never done before, somewhere down the line, we're going to see the ramifications. What do you think those ramifications will be, and aren't you worried to make such a huge purchase knowing that that may come to pass

BUFFETT: I'd be more worried holding cash. I think that if you look at the side effects of the incredible dosage that we've had to give -- and I think that dosage has been 100 percent appropriate; I'm not knocking that. But when you apply the kind of medicine we've applied, you may have sort of unprecedented aftereffects, too. But the one thing about those unprecedented aftereffects is they're going to be very bad for cash. I would much rather own working assets than have cash in a period that well could become inflationary down the road.

CLAMAN: But that's with the headwinds, though. You told me back in May and repeat in June the commercial real estate would, quote, "hit the skids big-time," and now we see that it is. What makes you think the businesses would ship more goods by a railroad when that kind of headwind is blowing in dark clouds? Or is this such a long-term bet at this point that you're not looking the next two years out?

BUFFETT: OK. Thank you, Liz.

BUFFETT: I don't know what will ship next year, but I would bet a lot of money -- in fact, we have bet a lot of money -- ten years from now there will be more people in the United States and they will be consuming more things than they consume now. And that will be more so 20 years from now and 30 years from now. So, there's going to be goods moving around for more and more people who are going to be consuming more and more of them, and certainly, rails should not only get a share but probably should probably get a little more than their share. It's a bet on the American economy essentially continuing to prosper over time just as it's prospered every since 1776.

CLAMAN: A lot of employers you're taking on here. Universal healthcare is at the forefront of a lot of people's minds. Do you think as you look what the government is attempting to do and Congress, now is the time to tackle such an expensive problem?

BUFFETT: Well, I think it's long past the time we tackle health care. But one of the real problems is the incentives in the system, and they’re very tough to get to. But we do spend 16 percent or so GDP on health care in the United States. And we have to figure out some way to slow down that particular engine.

CLAMAN: Do you think the wealthy should be taxed to pay for healthcare for all?

BUFFETT: I think the wealthy overall should be taxed more relative to the poor and the middle class.

CLAMAN: Here's a worry, though. The House bill calls for that 5 percent surtax on the wealthy, but it’s not indexed for inflation. Could that end up mimicking the alternative minimum tax which originally was supposed to tax only the rich, and now, as you know, police officers and teachers have to pay it?

BUFFETT: Well, I haven't read the 1,900 some pages in their entirety. I do know they have the 5 percent tax -- I think it's on incomes of over $500,000 or something. You're right, the way I read it, it's not index. But as a practical matter, I think that the wealthy have had their share of overall taxes, counting payroll taxes diminish significantly in the last 20 years. So I think that if you're looking for more revenue from the citizenry, I think the rich are the place to look.

CLAMAN: And that's you.

BUFFETT: That's me, right!

CLAMAN: You're okay with it?

BUFFETT: Absolutely.

CLAMAN: I always take your temperature each time we speak when it comes to President Pbama. Back in June, the last time you spoke you were very happy with all he's done. Does that sentiment continue?

BUFFETT: I am very, very glad I worked for and voted for President Obama, and I think he's the right man to have in the job.

CLAMAN: You're not concerned about all the spending that's going on at the moment?

BUFFETT: I think it's been -- I think it's necessary. I think a lot of the things we've done in of the last year or 15 months will have aftereffects. But I think they've been very important. We came very close to going into the abyss a year ago. And, you know, they've had to do some very unusual things, and some will have later costs. But they still were the right things to do.

CLAMAN: You wrote in back in August in the "Times" "the dollar's destiny lies with Congress." And with the deficit for 2009 -- listen, the numbers keep changing but $1.4 trillion, 10 percent of GDP high since 1945. Are you buying foreign currencies now or at least playing that carry trade since the dollar's so weak and there are other currencies with better yield? And I know you don't like to talk about what you're doing but, you know, as you see the dollar.

BUFFETT: You're seeing us get rid of a lot of dollars today in exchange for a lot of assets. So, I would rather own physical assets than own dollars.

CLAMAN: OK. As we finish up here, I have to ask, is this Burlington Northern purchase really just a chance to beef up your Lionel Train collection you have in the attic?

(LAUGHTER)

BUFFETT: I've got -- I’ve got a pretty good railroad on the third floor, but it’s nothing compared to the Burlington Northern...

CLAMAN: Yes. Matt Rose of Burlington Northern just said he's getting thousands and thousands of railcars to add to that collection.

BUFFETT: Yes. Right! Right! (LAUGHTER)

CLAMAN: Thank you so much, Mr. Buffett.
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