Life Term Strategies

1. Huge Gains in Long Term
- Receive significant capital gains
- by investing in corporations
- (with wide economic moat & average peers’ net margin)
- In very very long term

2. Strong Periodic Cash Flow
- Maintain self-sufficient monthly cash flow
- Through dividend, gains on derivative & short term trading
- For re-investment to item # 1 mentioned above

3. Mind for Risk Management
- Ensure strong cash position
- Maintain low risk by continue monitor, analyze & feel:
economic trend & environment,
market condition & investors emotion
corporate performance & outlook
asset allocation & direction

4. Be a holy Christian investor:
- Invest in wisdom & varies ways, but consistent & not over nor under of what the Holy Bible expects a Jesus follower should be
- Keep regular & long term spiritual growth
Continue experience God @ finance market
Aim for life transform opportunities
- Even though it may not teach Billy & Bilibala what stocks to invest nor how to make more, more & more $

5.30.2009

Oil price analysis

上周六的投資講座, 有不少人問我三個問題:
  1. 大市點睇?
  2. 買什么投資最好?
  3. 油價會唔會好? 買油股好唔好?
http://www.blonnet.com/iw/2005/05/01/images/2005050100160601.jpg
Bilibala 在等侯第二季的經濟數據和業績. 現在第二季未完, 雖然消費者信心指數重返50以上, 但屋價同銷售不算太好, 失業依然高企, 加上 S&P 500由低位升了 38%, 重返合理的衰退水平. 所以, 非常大機會在未來 3 個月玩上落市. 要入市就不用太心急, 跌 10%入, 又或者月供也可以.
( 3月4月要急入, all in 也可以, 但現在你見人賺錢才追貨就只有抱長線 buy & hold, 總之不用太心急).

買什么投資最好通常取決於個人喜好同立場. 好難一概而論.

加拿大股市沒有什么多元化的行業, 只有金融, 能源和礦產類. 所以, 許多人才問我買油股好唔好? 要了解油價, 先參考 Bilibala 上年的一個分享 - 加油! 由得我. 加價? 油不得我
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2009-02-20-oil.pump.5001.jpg
何解 Bilibala 在去年 7月就認為油價會直插但會再升至 US$100?
直 插跌破 US$40, 單是美金升 25%, 就足以令油價跌20-30%, oil demand 預測由 +2%跌到 -1%又會再跌多 20-30%, 再加上之前上升的炒作, 現在 US$65 油價其實合理(略為偏低). 再計上下跌炒作和悲觀的oil demand 預測, 所以之前跌破 US$40.

現在美金下跌, 相信會再跌多一點, 假如經濟開始復蘇, oil demand 回升至 +1%, 而 oil supply 不上升, 再加未來的通脹壓力, 即使沒有上升的炒作, 兩年內升上 US$100其實是個非常保守的估計.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIYqlwjMbu1AhOd_o4Qb03UC9E8e_ITcx2QeO3u6Lt-Tk8by9DKgaGEyPhxPzfwiyuWJgtPaLLSlRs4tw3M47MOO4Bpjv2vroA1_J_VaUa9_Me_C223WEFcOOtas9kOI6L-y6j0FWYr8g/s400/usd+cartoon.jpg
但即使成功預測油價, 也不代表買油股會有高回報.

首先要明白在新聞每日報告的國際原油價格主要有兩個: 一個是美國 WTI 的 light sweet crude, 另一個是英國的 North Sea Brent Crude.
Light sweet crude是開採成本最低的原油. 在沙地, 開採成本只需要 US$1-2, 其他地方開採提煉成本由 US$8-20不等.

加拿大是全球石油藏量第二高的國家, 也是美國第一石油進口國, 但加拿大石油主要是油砂. 油砂的 Sulfur和酸度比 light sweet crude 和 North Sea Brent Crude高得多, 開採提煉成本要 US$45-55.
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/files/images/oilsand.jpg
這就解釋到為何加拿大油公司在去年油價下插時, 股價跌 6-8成, 而美國只跌 3-5成的原因. 因為加拿大油公司要承受的油價波動風險遠比美國的高.
也解釋到在 3-4月轉勢時, 為何加拿大油公司反彈較強勁的原因.
就公司業績而言, 加拿大油公司以目前的油價, 只能 breakeven, 或賺少少, 但美國油公司會賺多點.

另外, 油公司分上遊(鑽探/開採), 下遊(提煉/運輸/零售/化工)和設備提供三大類.
油價上升會受惠上遊公司, 而對下遊公司帶來不利因素.
至於設備提供, 通常要看整個石油行業長期發展.
http://wpcontent.answers.com/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Esso_Kanata.jpg/350px-Esso_Kanata.jpg
當然, 每間油公司石油蘊藏量, 當中分佈, Sulfur和酸度的評級, 管理層, 現金流/負債率, 品牌價值等等.

http://www.midwestagro.ca/Quickstart/ImageLib/Imperial_Oil_logo.gif
所以, 計算油公司價值是遠比油價複雜和難於計算.
Bilibala 認為因為加拿大油公司升了不少, 未來會升上 US$100, 但要等經濟確認復蘇才會開始實現. 美國油公司回報應該較好, 風險亦會較低.
保守一點, Bilibala 只會買全方位(有上遊又有下遊)的油公司, 既然不清楚短期升跌, 所有會揀提煉業務多一點而不單單只有油砂資產的公司. 這樣, 不管油升油跌, 公司都會為我這樣的小股東賺取盈利. 我亦可以安心持有.
http://www.philatron.com/NewCatalog/TAB10/Oil%20Refinery.jpg
跟據上述的簡單分析, 加拿大油公司之中, Petro Canada, Imperial Oil, Husky Oil 同 Encana 會比 Suncor, Talisman 同 Oil Sand 穩陣得多.

Petro Canada 最好, 最 diversify, cash又多, 但有「不被收購」的 28%下跌風險, 而 Husky Oil 屬於超人(一個超級成功但不照顧小股東的勁人), Encana, Bilibala 讀不明它的煉油業又有分拆風險. 所以, Bilibala 在沽出 Petro Canada 賺了 42%之後轉入而且不斷入 Imperial Oil, 但由於是Exxon Mobil的子公司, 所以管理好, 但未來增長會局限在加拿大.
http://tehomegha.com/content/stuff/astuff/5.JPG
美國幾間大的, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Corp 同 Conoco Phillips 都好. Conoco Phillips就提煉業務比重最高, 股價最平. Exxon Mobil管理各方面都好, 就是貴一點.

中國石油公司三間都有壟斷優勢, 但同時有較重的政治風險. 既然有美加選擇, 投資中國的石油公司 opportunity cost 就太高, 所以在現階段, Bilibala 沒有買.

5.29.2009

Econ data 09 week 22

Overall
  • US 1Q GDP revised from -6.1% to -5.7%, still worse than expect -5.5%
Consumer market
  • US May consumer confidence up to 54.9 from 40.8 in Apr, better 42.6.
  • US Apr Durable goods order up +1.9% from -2.1% in Mar, better +0.5%
  • US May Chicago PMI down to 34.9 from 40.1 in Apr, worse 42.0
  • Good to see the consumer confidence once again rise back above 50, June results should look good too but more trend analysis to be done in order to confirm whether the recover is starting or not
House market
  • US Apr new home sales flat at 352k from 351k in Mar, worse 360k
  • US Apr existing home sales up to 4.68M from 4.55M, same 4.66M
  • US Mar S&P home price index vs py down -18.7% from -18.67% in Feb, worse -18.4%
  • Further confirmed the house market "free fall" has significantly slow down and finally stablized
Job market
  • US 05/23 initial jobless claim down to 623k from 636k, better 628k

5.26.2009

China Life may sell China Cons Bank

中國人壽保險(集團)公司(China Life Insurance (Group) Co., 簡稱﹕國壽集團)董事長楊超週一表示﹐國壽集團可能考慮出售所持中國建設銀行股份有限公司(China Construction Bank Co., 0939.HK, 簡稱﹕建設銀行)的股份﹐前提是公司能夠從股份減持交易中獲利。本月較早時候﹐國壽集團及旗下兩家子公司從美國銀行(Bank of America Corp.)手中購入27.7億股建設銀行股份。楊超在北京出席股東會議的間隙向記者表示﹐只要減持上述股份對國壽集團有利﹐公司會考慮出售這些股份。他表示﹐國壽集團最近購入建設銀行股票屬於一項財務投資。他還補充道﹐上述股份不存在禁售期。楊超同時兼任上市公司中國人壽保險股份有限公司(China Life Insurance Co. LFC, 簡稱﹕中國人壽)董事長一職。
Bilibala's comments:
Should have no impact in terms of my fair value calculation.

5.22.2009

News - Google music for free

Monday Google launched in China Genuine music download service free of charge. As a result, Google rival Baidu in China at the Nasdaq stock market Monday in regular trading down 5.55 percent.

“Wall Street Journal” reported Monday that Google, including Warner, Universal, EMI, Sony’s four major record companies, including more than 140 record labels to reach nearly 1.1 million licensed songs, the user can music through Google search and download.

Google will search the music section at some embedded ads which will be part of the advertisement fee to be returned to the form of royalties to record companies in order to reach users can download free music and record companies and musicians can also profit.

“Wall Street Journal” emphasis, Google and its partners, “hoped that the new service will be able to Google’s competitors in China, especially to attract users from Baidu.” Baidu is still firmly in the rule of the Chinese search market. Google will be near half of the advertising revenue paid to the record companies, while the other half will be paid to the service Google partner in China Whale Music Net. Google through the introduction of genuine music search service for more traffic.

Standard & Poor’s analyst (Scott Kessler) investors at Monday report that Google’s music service will help Google to get more Chinese in China’s market share. He went on to reaffirm Baidu shares The “sell” (Baidu) rating, as well as Google shares “strong buy” (Strong Buy) rating.
Affected by this, Baidu stock market Monday on the Nasdaq in regular trading to close at 172.99 U.S. dollars, down 10.16 U.S. dollars than the previous, a decrease of 5.55%. In after-hours trading, Baidu shares fell 0.48 U.S. dollars, a decrease of 0.28 percent, to close at 172.51 U.S. dollars. In the past 52 weeks, the lowest price for Baidu 100.50 U.S. dollars, up to 382.90 U.S. dollars.

Bilibala Comments:
Today, lots companies and ethical organization defense on copy right. Those companies loss a lot of money, so they sue.

What they should do is how to decide perform they can generate huge amount of profit while the customers can enjoy the products & services for free or at very low cost.

Those who fail to do this and only can sue will sooner or later being kick out of the game. It has nothing to do with copy right. Only those who gave up their copy right will win the battle in the today and in future economic market.

My point is: free download should not be illegal!! And more importantly, it will soon be legal. That is the mega trend.

Econ Data 09 week 21

This week is another week with light data. The equity market fall a bit after the huge rally, but I think it is fairly reasonable. GM US may plan to file bankruptcy C11 next week, also GM Canada Union has entered into agreeement to cut salary and benefit. Those should clear some of the investors uncertainty.

Consumer market
  • US Apr lending indicators up +1.0% from down -0.3% in Mar (better than expect, +0.8%)
  • As USA & Canada tax players receive their tax refunds, the May figures which will start publishing in Jun should looks better (even though it may not be treated as a trend indicator)
House market
  • US Apr building premits down to 494k from 511k in Mar (worse, 530k)
  • US Apr housing starts down to 458k from 525k in Mar (worse, 520k)
Job market
  • US 09/05/16 initial jobless claims down to 631k from 643k last week (worse, 625k)

News - Android 'a revolution'

Among all the companies fighting to grab a piece of the brightest star in computing--the smartphone--Google seems the least interested in taking the spoils.

Android, Google's mobile operating system, doesn't generate revenue for the company, and likely never will--at least in the direct sense. But Andy Rubin, Google's director of mobile platforms, thinks Google and the world will benefit from any device created with the intent of getting more people onto the Internet, and isn't shy about explaining why the open-source approach chosen for Android holds the most promise of reaching that goal.

Android made its debut in 2007, a few months after another computer with designs on improving the Internet experience on a phone--the iPhone--hit the streets as perhaps the most hyped gadget ever. Buzz has been slower to build around Android, but that could start to change as additional phones arrive that have a bit more pizazz than the G1, the world's first Android phone released last October.

Ahead of next week's Google I/O Developer Conference, where Rubin is expected to discuss future Android phones and goals for the software, he sat down with CNET News to review Google's progress thus far and share his impressions of what makes Android unique.

Q: How do you reconcile the goals of staying open with the need to offer carriers their own experience and the compatibility problems that may come as a part of that?
Rubin: Traditionally what's happened is the burden has been on the (phone makers) to be systems integrators. And what you get is kind of a lowest common denominator of functionality and usability because the software was actually developed by multiple parties, and nobody was really thinking holistically about the user experience.

It's (about) how do people expect these products to perform, and what are the various paces that a consumer will put these products through? No one company was thinking about that.
And so a huge benefit to this open platform is that it's complete, it's basically everything you need to build a phone. Sometimes the reason things fragment is because the platform is incomplete and people need to fill in the pieces. And when you fill in the pieces, you inherently have incompatibility.

It is possible to have a completely different user interface with a completely different look and feel but still be compatible. And that will be demonstrated.

There will be a couple of launches; we've generated a lot of interest in China. The use cases in China are slightly different in the U.S.; typically in China, because of the Asian input, people prefer a pen-based interface rather than a capacitive-touch based interface because they expect a stylus to be able to draw the complex characters. So the use case has completely changed but we have achieved compatibility.

How did the goal of Android evolve after it was brought into Google?
Rubin: The goal was pretty much the same, the business model obviously changed. Google's business model is deep into advertising, and so for Google this is purely a scale of the business, we just want to reach more people, and hopefully they'll use Google and we'll get the upside of the advertising revenue.

By the way, we're confident enough in our advertising business and our ability to help people find information that we don't somehow demand they use Google. If somebody wants to use Android to build a Yahoo phone, great.

Did you ever consider doing a phone? A Google phone?
Rubin: Yeah...I mean, it's funny, if you build one phone...I'd much rather be the guy that does a platform that's capable of running on multiple companies' phones than just focusing on a single product.

A single product is going to have, eventually, limitations. Even if that was two products that's going to have limitations. But if it's a hundred products, now we're getting somewhere, to the scale at which Google thinks people want to access information.

Getting back to business models, Google has a great business model around advertising, and there's a natural connection between open source and the advertising business model. Open source is basically a distribution strategy, it's completely eliminating the barrier to entry for adoption.

When Android was a start-up company, it was always a razor/razor blade business. The razor, the free thing, was the open-source operating system. In Android's original business model, the blades were basically provisioning systems that we sold to wireless carriers that had hooks into the open-source operating system. That was an unproven business model, I would say, and certainly the feedback I got when we were going for venture financing was that it was an unproven business model.

I was willing to give it a go, but then Larry and Sergey and Eric came along and said, "it's much more aligned with Google's core business and Google's business model, and you'll have a much easier time executing within Google." And retroactively, I agree.

Is this a market share play? Is this something where you want to conquer the mobile world?
Rubin: We look at it first from the scale perspective. The mission here is to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and relevant. So the accessible part: think of a world in which you are somehow prevented from accessing the information you want. When I go to a hotel room and pay the $19.95 to get on the Internet and they have some firewall that doesn't let me get to my Exchange server, it makes me berserk.

Google doesn't sell Android, but hopes to encourage mobile Internet use to drive Web searches--and ads.(Credit: Stephen Shankland/CNET)

I look at things--and Google looks at things--in (terms of) how could the landscape change in such a way that consumers who want to access Google services can't?

In that honest goal of not having consumers being blocked and allowing them to access information, it helps our competitors as well. What we don't want to do is disadvantage anybody by being the only person; we don't want to create any kind of separate structure where people can only access Google. And this is the definition of openness: it's not just open source, it's the freedom to get the information that you're actually looking for.

Why is this approach better what Apple or Palm is doing where they control the whole device?
Rubin: Controlling the whole device is great, (but) we're talking about 4 billion handsets. When you control the whole device the ability to innovate rapidly is pretty limited when it's coming from a single vendor.

You can have spurts of innovation. You can nail the enterprise, nail certain interface techniques, or you can nail the Web-in-the-handset business, but you can't do everything. You're always going to be in some niche.

What we're talking about is getting out of a niche and giving people access to the Internet in the way they expect the Internet to be accessed. I don't want to create some derivative of the Internet, I don't want to just take a slice of the Internet, I don't want to be in the corner somewhere with some dumbed-down version of the Internet, I want to be on the Internet.

Even if that comes at the cost of compatibility or UI advances? If you're going to be the Everyman phone, you're going to have to make some sacrifices at some point, right?
Rubin: I think that's yet to be seen. I think we've done a pretty good job. Again, we're talking about a clean slate technology that didn't exist a few years ago. So I'm actually thinking this could be a revolution.

Remember people used to trumpet "write once, run everywhere"? Well, I think we're actually there. I think when we start talking about the possibility of exploring things like Netbooks and car navigation systems, you have potentially different processor architecture types. You have Intel, you have ARM, set-top boxes have MIPS.

We have all sorts of different processor architectures, and the guys who are steeped in legacy have trouble addressing those markets with a single solution. I actually think Android is the potential single solution that can address all those markets, and it's new, it's revolutionary. It will change the game.

If this is a revolution, why haven't we seen more of these phones?
Rubin: It takes about 18 months to build a phone from end to end. What we wanted to do for our market entry was make sure that we had one successful showcase product to prove that the product was reliable and robust and ready to go. We chose HTC as our partner for that.

The forthcoming Samsung i7500, based on Google's Android(Credit: Samsung)
At the moment we open-sourced, November 7 (2007), that's when a lot of these guys got their hands on it. We're still in that 18-month window of building products, and what you'll see coming up is a whole string of products.

What did you learn from Android 1.0 to 1.5?
Rubin: I learned that 1.5 was the product I wished was 1.0. The reason is it's a different business for Google: helping the industry build operating systems for their cell phones.

Because on the Web, you can iterate very quickly, and you can put things out in beta, you can fix bugs literally hourly. On cell phones you're blasting something in a ROM in a device that's in manufacturing where you did just-in-time ordering of all the parts and have inventory risk and everything else. Widgets are literally coming down a factory line, and if software isn't ready by the time they reach the end of the line they're going to drop on the floor and pile up. And that winds up costing a lot of people a lot of money. And if you don't get it right, you're kind of hosed.

What is going to dictate who wins and loses in this market? We all have different things that we may want in a phone. How do you try to be the Everyman phone and try to keep up with what's going on?
Rubin: We're trying to be something really unique, and I don't think anybody else is offering this. We put a very focused spotlight on openness, and openness is the means by which you get the product that you want.

Do people care (about openness)? I mean, the industry might care, the partners in the Open Handset Alliance may care, but do consumers?
It's an enabler. I'm not on some marketing campaign to educate consumers about what openness means. Actually, if you ask anybody on the street, you're going to get 10 different definitions of openness. The Symbian guys are going to be like "I'm open," and the LiMo guys are going to say "I'm open."

There's probably like a royal flush of openness, where you can lay your cards on the table and say (pointing) "open, open, open, open, open," it's the guy with the most open that's going to win.

I think we're that. I think that we have an open ecosystem, we have an open-source platform, we chose the right license, there are no viral aspects, it's absolutely 100 percent free, it's complete, it's everything you need to build a phone. When you add all that stuff up, all those ingredients, potentially--I think the jury's still out--we can make a really successful product.

5.20.2009

Finance 101 - Credit Card

Don't jump at that credit card offer
You might be surprised to find lower credit limits and higher interest rates and fees.
By Gerri Willis, CNN personal finance editor
May 20, 2009: 12:39 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- President Obama has called on Congress to pass credit card reform by Memorial Day. The bill, expected to pass shortly, will make it harder for credit card companies to hike rates and fees starting early next year. But that bill doesn't guarantee that a new card offer is in your best interest. Here are some things to look at when deciding to open a new credit card account.

We all know the term APR (annual percentage rate) but the number consumers should really be paying attention to is "effective APR."

According to Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at bankrate.com, explains, "An effective APR represents your total cost of credit. Now, keep in mind, this may be more than just the interest rate. If you're paying an annual fee, if you incurred a balance transfer fee when transferring the balance to that card ... those are costs that will add to the interest rate that you're effectively paying, effectively raising the cost that you pay on that balance."

Your "effective APR" is unique, different from everybody else's. Here's an example of how to calculate your "effective APR" from Bill Hardekopf at lowcards.com.

Our hypothetical guy -- let's call him Tony -- applied for a credit card with 0% APR for one year.
He spent $1,000 on the card and decided to make only the minimum payments for that first year.

Later, he took out a $2,000 cash advance -- not realizing there was a cash advance fee -- and that cash advances are at a much higher rate than purchases.

Then Tony missed a couple payments, which triggered two late fee charges. It also triggered a default rate -- and his card rate was raised to 29.9%. He eventually paid off the entire card and closed the account. So Tony was tempted by the 0% introductory offer, but it cost him dearly.

Let's add up the total costs to the card:
  • $75 interest on purchases
  • $379 interest on cash advances
  • $60 cash advance fee
  • $78 late charge fee

So he spends $592 on all these extra costs, which makes his "effective APR" 19.7% on a card that was supposed to be 0% APR. Be aware of:

  • Introductory rates
  • Payment schedules
  • Cash advance fees
  • Late fees
  • Default rates

You really have to sit down and crunch the numbers to determine what is the best card for you. Remember, some of these expenses are easily managed. Make your payments on time, keep an eye on your rate schedule and avoid cash advances whenever possible.

Bilibala's comments:

As a credit card holders, if you settle all the balance (not just min. payment) every month on time, with a credit card that do not charge annual fees, I think no one can take any advantage from you and I like cash rebate as the reward program.

News - China Mobile Apr 09 news subscribers

營運數據 中移動<00941.hk>4月僅上客582萬,按月跌10%
中移動<00941.hk>新增用戶創年半新低,4月上客僅582.3萬,按月跌幅加快至10.3%,按年更跌21.4%。4月底止用戶總數4.82987億,今年累計上客2573.7萬戶。(de/a)

Bilibala comments:
It is kind of expect that China Mobile's monthly new subscribers will fall with 3G & 1 add'l competitors, i think growth slow down new subscribers will offset by the value added service and the business development in 3G, home/business phone and internet soon.

So far, competition is healthy and sounds.

5.19.2009

News - China Mobile 1q new subscribers

工信部副部長奚國華表示,今年首季新增電話用戶數據顯示,中電信<00728.hk>和聯通<00762.hk>份額增加,中移動<00941.hk>份額則有所降低。據統計,08年中移動在新增市場份額佔93%,到今年3月則僅佔68%。他表示,電信業重組改革目標是形成三家實力相近的運營商,希望中電信和聯通發展更快一些,共同把蛋糕做大。(su/a)

截至3月底止,中國電話用戶總數累計達到10.06億戶,其中移動用戶總數合計達6.7億戶。他表示,受國際金融危機影響,行業收入增速持續下降。今年首三個月,全行業電信業務總量和收入增長,分別10.8%和 1.86%,業務總量增速明顯下降。不過,他指出,自第三代(3G)移動通信服務開展以來,已連續兩月新增移動用戶突破千萬戶,對行業拉動效果明顯。2月和3月單月新增移動用戶,分別為1007萬戶和1055萬戶。

Bilibala comment's
1 addition competitor plus 3G really reduced China Mobile's dominated position, but China Mobile will still be the dominator with government protection given wireless and internet peneration rate in China is still low compare to all developed countries.

5.15.2009

Econ data: 09 week 20

Overall
  • US Apr Core CPI up +0.3% from up 0.2% in Mar (better than expect, +0.1%)
  • US Apr CPI up +0.0% from down -0.1% in Mar (in line, +0.0%)
  • US Apr Core PPI up +0.1% from 0.0% in Mar (in line, +0.1%)
  • US Apr PPI up +0.3% from -1.2% in Mar (better, +0.2%)
  • Glad to see the improvement from Mar, it reduce the market's worry about deflation.
House market
  • n/a
  • Focus will be on next week's housing starts and building premits. I don't think there will be a huge improvement from Mar. As long as the results do not get worse compare to Mar, then it is good news
Job market
  • US 05/09 initial jobless claim up to 637k from 605k last week (worse, 610k)
  • A light data week on job market;
Retail market
  • US Apr Retail sales down -0.4% from down -1.3% in Mar (worse, 0%)
  • US Apr Retail sales ex auto down -0.5% from down -1.2% in Mar (worse, +0.2%)
  • US Mar Business inventory down -1.0% from down -1.4% in Mar (worse, -1.1%)
  • US Apr Industry production down -0.5% from down -1.7% in Mar (better, -0.6%)
  • Not good compare to trending nor to expectation, but good improvement compare to Mar
Others
  • HKG 1q09 GDP down -7.8%, in line with expectation
  • Data should show improvement in 2q (even though it may still not having a positive figure)

News: oil import and oil price

by Argus Daily Spotnight:
Ask anyone on Main Street the following question: From what nation does the U.S. import most of its oil?”
You might get a dozen different answers (and, in fact, we received a few nonexistent countries as responses). To people outside the investment industry, the real answer is a bit surprising.

According to the latest import data from the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration, the U.S. imported a total of 341.329 million barrels of crude oil and products during February. Non-OPEC member sent 202.574 million barrels (~60%), while OPEC (11 members) shipped 138.755 million barrels (~40%). But the top four oil-importing countries were Canada (70.419 million barrels), Mexico (38.2 million barrels), Venezuela (31.965 million
barrels) and Saudi Arabia (31.233 million barrels). Canada has the second largest amount of reserves, following Saudi Arabia.

Bilibala's comments:
There is some political issues here, USA prefer to import oil from Canada instead of Middle East. However, even Canada has the second largest amount of reserves, following Saudi Arabia. Those reserve are mainly oil sand.

For Saudi Arabia, production cost is only $2/barrel but in Canada, it cost $45-55/barrel. Due to the political reason, USA has to keep Canada's oil companies profitable so that USA can rely lesser from Middle East. Therefore, oil price for sure will rise at least above $60/barrel.

News: China Cons Bank

美國銀行向機構投資者,以每股4.2元配售135.09億股建行<00939.hk>H股後,接二連三再有機構投資者大手減持,先有投資者以4.88元,配售7.38億股舊股,其後再有多宗以4.82元,為數2億,5,000萬及1,500萬股的配售大手上板。美國銀行5月12日與Orientmax Capital、國壽集團、國壽<02628.hk>、國壽保險(海外)公司、BOCI Asia及Cairnhill Investments (Mauritius)分別簽訂協議,向上述交易對方,出售上述135.09億股H股。

由於美銀減持股份並無禁售期,市場擔心上述獲配股的機構投資者,或會轉手沽貨獲利,加上沽空金額明顯增加,短線利淡投資氣氛建行表示,美國銀行由於要改善其資本狀況,出售所持已過鎖定期的建行股份,屬於正常市場行為,建行對此表示理解。由於美銀仍持的255億股建行H股,股份禁售期,2011年8月29日才解禁,加上大部份獲配股的機構投資者,包括國壽購入28億股、中銀國際購入22億股。根據建行的公佈,厚樸基金及淡馬錫持股量仍有待證實。

Bilibala's comments:
Because this transaction mainly due to government's capital request on Bank of America after the stress test. Which has nothing to do with the finanical strength and performance of China Cons Bank. It actually give us an opportunity to buy.

News: China Life Apr 09 premium

中國人壽保險股份有限公司(China Life Insurance Co., LFC, 簡稱﹕中國人壽)週五稱﹐公司1-4月份未經審核的保費收入總計為人民幣1,260億元(約合185.3億美元)。 中國人壽此次未提供比較數據。但該公司此前公佈的2008年前4個月的保費收入為人民幣1,280億元。據此計算﹐該公司今年1-4月的保費收入下滑了1.6%。

Apr YTD premium down -1.6%
Apr MTD premium down -14.9%

The trend doesn't look good, especially compare to peer. On the other hand, it depends on what kind of products they are. If China Life is selling more profitable products to policyholders compare to its peers, then it is ok.

Opinion: Bull or Bear

中評社北京5月15日電/摩根大通首席中國經濟學家龔方雄一如既往地樂觀,“任何市場的調整,都是買入的機會。市場已經進入牛市,中國市場,尤其是A股、H股、紅籌股完成了從熊到牛的轉化,現在處于牛市的初級階段。”

《21世紀經濟報道》消息,龔方雄剛剛帶領一批投資者在內地考察,發現內需在往上走,加速改善。而外需和出口則沒有改善,在底部徘徊,中國經濟的兩極分化非常明顯。因此,對于未來股市市場,摩根大通主推房地產、汽車,以及金融等板塊。

“如果銀行板塊、房地產板塊、汽車板塊、耐用消費品行業繼續跑贏,會帶動市場上升,處于牛市當中。”龔方雄說。

牛市特征隱現?
市場是走在經濟之前的,龔方雄說,如果經濟持續復蘇,A股和H股進入牛市,恒生指數里也有很多中資股,不過香港一些本地股票可能不會跑贏中資股。

從技術性指標來看,H股從去年10月到現在,底和頂都越來越高。H股第一次的底在去年10月份,是5000點;第二次的底在去年11月份,是5800點 -6000點;最近的一次底在今年3月初,H股在6500點。所以每次調整的底都比上一次高。同時,H股上次的頂在8700點;最近曾經到過1萬點,頂也 是越來越高。底和頂都越來越高,形成一個上升通道,是牛市的特征。

“從全球的角度來看,這次股市的反彈是實實在在的,有基本層面支撐反彈。首先,美國的房地產市場有回穩的跡象,消費也穩定下來,失業人數也在下降。另外, 美國以前的反彈失敗了,而這次反彈在每個資本市場都是一致的、配合的,看起來很像牛市的開始。具體來講,商品市場的反彈也很厲害,油價接近每桶60美元。 表示市場覺得需求會改善,看好經濟復蘇。目前在債券市場,公司債的息差在收窄。以前的情況是,雖然股市反彈,但是股市公司債的息差在擴寬,表明公司的基本 層面惡化的可能性在增加,不能支持股市持續反彈。而在外匯市場,以前是股市跌,美元就走強,因為大家以美元為避難所。最近避難的心態在降低,外匯市場沒有 跟隨股市。”龔方雄解釋說。

近期,有些經濟學家提出,中國經濟在今年底可能會第二次探底。不過,龔方雄對此深表懷疑。
“W形的第二次底在哪里呢?我不太在意未來9個月到12個月經濟可能探底的可信度。對投資者來說,還是要看未來6個月到9個月的經濟走勢,未來的能見度是 很低的。如果覺得經濟會二次探底而不介入市場,那你可能從3月份到現在就沒有賺到錢。”龔方雄說,中國經濟的V形反彈的態勢是非常明顯的,如果美國經濟明 年復蘇,中國的出口變好。今年也做了很多事情刺激內需,包括社保體制、福利體制的建設會給未來的消費一個強勁的拉動,W形的可能性不大。

看好地產、銀行板塊
摩根大通方面認為,未來大市的上升主要來自兩方面,一方面,中國消費的繼續改善,另一方面就是市場的重估。

龔方雄說,首推房地產行業,因為房地產的銷售比預期強,不但成交量很大,而且價格也在反彈。由于連續幾個月成交量上升,導致全國的庫存量非常低,平均只有7-8個月的庫存,這意味著到今年年底,內地很多城市房地產的庫存會消化得差不多。

私人投資從去年下半年開始放緩,尤其房地產。很多開發商由于去年的庫存很大,現金沒有回流,所以去年下半年削減了投資。

“目前有些開發商的現金流問題解決了,開始買地投資,但是今年下半年投資的房子,要到2011年-2012年才能成為房源供應,明年房地產市場可能會出現 供不應求的情況,因此明年的價格可能會上升。”龔方雄說,庫存消化之后,資金又回來了,開發商開始投資建房。現在投資的時機非常好,土地便宜,建筑成本 低,而到2011年-2012年通脹的情況比現在高,到時賣出房子的利潤會很豐厚。所以我們認為公司的盈利有很大的上調空間。

今年下半年的亮點,可能是私人部門的固定資產投資,因為房地產投資回來得比想象中要快。以前大家覺得今年主要是國家主導的固定資產投資,而私人部門的投資 會比較弱。現在看來,下半年,如果房地產投資回來,中國經濟會有超出預期的增長。購房、購車對于經濟會有比較持久的拉動力。

龔方雄說,第二個是市場估值趨于正常化。現在市場對于H股和紅籌股的估值約為13倍。“13倍是過去十年的平均估值,13倍不貴,非常合理。去年市場對中 國股票的估值非常低,最低曾經是6倍。標準普爾的估值大概是17倍,而美國經濟處于衰退,一季度衰退了6%多,二季度估計會衰退2%-3%。”

龔方雄認為,中國經濟在成長,市場的普遍預期,二季度和三季度按照環比計算,可能會成長10%左右,所以其估值只有13倍是合理的。如果分析師繼續上調企業的盈利預測,市場至少還有10%的上調空間。

“從3月到5月,市場上升了很多,尤其國企股指數,3月初的時候只有6000多點,現在是9500點,走勢很急。投資者應該利用任何一次調整的機會,買入基本面在繼續改善的行業,除了房地產、汽車,還有銀行板塊。”龔方雄說。

至于另一個看好的銀行板塊,龔方雄指出,有三個原因使其未來可以跑贏大市。其一,很多人認為貸款增速已經見頂了。確實,一季度貸款增長非常快,未來幾個季 度的貸款增長不會超過一季度。但是貸款增速見頂,不代表流動性見頂。根據數據,一季度貸款增加了4.6萬億元,而存款增速也很快。貸出去的錢基本還沒用, 因為還沒開工。未來一段時間,雖然貸款增速會下降,隨著基建項目開工越來越多,一季度貸出去的錢會流出銀行體系,貸存比例會上升,銀行的盈利能力會改善。 其二,未來一段時間,可能會有降息的可能性,因為中國還要進一步鼓勵消費,降低儲蓄率,有可能降低存款利率,而貸款利率不一定會降。其三,銀行股在過去一 段時間跑輸大市,比如建行、中行,因為市場擔心戰略投資者減持,而現在沒有了減持的壓力。

Bilibala's comment:
Bull or Bear is always hard to tell. But my apporach will never change, regardless of bull or bear, buy & hold great companies at reasonable price (even if not the lowest) will never fail.

Plus it is always difficult to draw a line between bear market phrase 3 vs bull market phrase 1. However, if you such clear line do not have any significant impact to your gain and loss, why do you care about it?

5.11.2009

Google market share up in searching

It's no big surprise. Google accounted for almost 73% of all U.S. searches conducted in April, according to recent data from Hitwise.

Search engines continue to be the primary navigational tool of the Internet, and Google continues way ahead of the pack. Just fewer than 73% (72.74%) of all searches carried out online in the U.S. in April this year were via Google.

The search engine behemoth's competitors' shares are miniscule by comparison. Yahoo Search is Google's nearest competitor with 16.27%, MSN Search managed 5.68% and Ask.com received 3.95%. The remaining 49 search engines on Hitwise's list make up just 1.36% of U.S. searches.
Hitwise continued to observe the trend for longer search queries. Instead of using just 1 or 2 words, searchers are now employing upwards of 3, perhaps indicating that they are finding less value in results presented when using less and subsequently refining those results with the additional of more keywords.

The YoY change in search query length is:
• One word: -3%• Two words: -5%• Three words: +1%• Four words: +3%• Five words: +4%• Six words: +5%• Seven words: +8%• Eight or more words: +18%

Bilibala's comments:
Google's revenue & market shares continue to grow in a nice pace. That's why it is a good company to invest into.

HSBC 1q09

(Adds detail.) By Ragnhild Kjetland
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC) said Monday it remains "well-positioned" for the "highly uncertain environment" after performance in the first quarter bounced back from a difficult fourth quarter.

The bank said underlying pretax profit was well ahead of the first quarter of last year, but that it was helped by $6.6 billion in gains as the value of its own debt declined. A year ago, the gain on own debt was $2.5 billion.

Just as banks take write-downs on their investments if the market value on them declines, they can record gains if the value of their debt held by others in the market drops.

Excluding the debt gains, which can be reversed in time, pretax profits were lower that a year earlier, although "significantly higher" than in the fourth quarter.

HSBC said that, even excluding the debt gains, it generated enough earnings in the quarter to more than cover the first interim dividend on $0.08 a share.

"We're not saying by how much we covered it," Chief Financial Officer Douglas Flint told analysts.

"Our operating performance in the first quarter was encouraging, boosted by record results from our global banking and markets business" Chief Executive Michael Geoghegan said.

The trend of solid investment banking operations thereby continued at HSBC. It did especially well in foreign-exchange and interest-rate trading, but the CEO said he doesn't think the business will show "these kinds of results" in the long term.

Hargreaves Landsdown Stockbrokers analyst Richard Hunter said the "broader measures" of HSBC's performance largely mirrored that of other banks, but he said the situation at the U.S. operations remains a drag on the immediate outlook.

Hunter said HSBC is well-capitalized and still benefits from its business mix and geographical diversity.

Since a 10-year low of 270 pence a share in March, HSBC's shares have more than doubled in value.

Just prior to the first-quarter statement, HSBC's shares were down 18 pence. At 1216 GMT, they were down 9.5 pence, or 1.7%, at 568 pence.

HSBC in April became the last of the U.K. banks to raise cash from shareholders. The CEO said Monday that with the additional capital, the group is "well-positioned to ride out the economic uncertainty ahead and to take advantage of opportunities to grow."

Since HSBC first warned about the deterioration of the subprime loans in the U.S., it has taken massive impairments. With the economic slowdown in full force, impairments rose again in the first quarter, in all customer groups and regions. More than half of the increase came from the personal financial services business, largely due to "continuing weakness" in the U.S.

It said, however, that the impairments, while higher than the first quarter last year, were lower than in the fourth quarter, also in the U.S.

HSBC has ceased new consumer lending at Finance Corp., and is running down the loan book. At the end of the quarter, it was at $96 billion, down from $100 billion at the year-end.
Meanwhile, HSBC said Asia remains its strongest region.

"Asia is still fairly resilient in terms of impairments. It is not stretched by any measure," Geoghegan said.

He said that "clearly" that isn't the case in other markets, such as Latin America, India and the Middle East where it is seeing some deterioration. Also in the U.K., he expects impairments to rise for some time to come.

Company Web site: www.hsbc.com
-By Ragnhild Kjetland; Dow Jones Newswires

Bilibala comments:
One of the problem I have with HSBC is that they don't never issue a detail 1q09 results nor stat supp for me to review, therefore, no comments, but I still believe HSBC is one of the best financial institution in the world.

5.08.2009

Manulife 1q09 results

Overview
It is a leading Canadian-based financial services group serving millions of customers in 19 countries and territories worldwide (12th top insurance co rank by Fortune). Operating in Canada, Asia and the United States, MFC offers clients a diverse range of financial protection products and wealth management services through its extensive network of employees, agents and distribution partners. Funds under management by Manulife Financial and its subsidiaries were Cdn$405.3 billion (US$321.7 billion) as at March 31, 2009.


1q09 results (vs 4q08)

1. Revenue down 31.3% to $8.0B

  • Premium income down 0.71% to $7.0B;
  • Investment income up 2.9% to 1.8B;
  • Fee income down 2.3% to $1.3B;
  • Realized gain/loss down to -$2.1B from +$1.5B;
  • AUM sales down 8.5% to $10.6B;
  • Deposit down 1.6% to $12.3B;
  • Sales switch from equity product to fixed income product;
  • New business embedded value down 36.2% to $0.5B based on lower sales & lower profitbility assumption;

2. EPS up to -$0.67 from -$1.24 (net loss of $1.07B)

  • Net income excluded special adjustment is $476M, better than Bilibala's expectation;
  • Special adjustment include the following: a) $1,146M reserve increase on seg fund guarantees benefits; b) $121M credit impairment; c) $277M down in real estate values;
  • Maturity, surrender & annuity payment down 12.9% to $3.5B; but up 33% compare to 1q08;
  • Based on source of earning, actual return on new business in line with internal plan and better than 4q08 & 1q08 which is good. Experience losses are just timing different due to market movement, I will expect MFC turn back to gains in 2q09;
  • Enter all new seg fund business in USA & Canada now enter into a hedging program. It will lower the market risk at the same time narrow down the investment spread (new business embedded value);
  • Enter new reinsurance agreement to tranfer out certain risks of Canada business. Again, it reduce new business embedded value;

3. Balance Sheet

  • Book value per share down 4.07% to $15.81, if exclude special adjustment book value should be up 2% or $16.78 which in line with my expectation;
  • MCCSR down 2.56% to 228%, looks ok;
  • MFC try to promote the dividend reinvestment program, it is good to see MFC like to improve capital without issue new shares (if possible)
  • Cash & short term up 57% (vs 1q08), good for capital requirement but bad for generate earning;
  • Invested assets up 1.9%, looks health in terms of the credit rating of the bond & mortgage holdings;
  • Seg fund amount at risk is $30.2B, it will reduce to $22.8B based on Apr 30, 09 market closed data. The huge maturity season will only start at year 8 to 10 (around 2018), should not be a concern;

Risk

  • US dollar down will have negative impact to MFC's bottom line & equity value;
  • Huge market fluctuation will increase MFC's market volatility assumption which hurts earning;
  • Low interest rate in long run will hurt MFC's investment spread;
  • Intense competition and market saturation in the North American insurance market (pressure on pricing, limited growth and higher commission paid);

Bilibala with Manulife

  • My group health plan is under Manulife;

Comments

Buy, fair value C$37.8 (increase from C$31.0)

Econ data: 09 week 19

Overall
  • 10 US Banks was being forced to rise capital, inline with expectation. However, to me, lots bank such as Wells Fargo do not really need any additional capital at all;
  • Toyota release 09 result, sales down 22.8% and with a net loss of Yen 436.9B, the largest loss since 1937. Apr Auto sales seems to have signal to recover, Toyota is down 3% in NYSE;
House market
  • US Mar pending home sales up 3.2% from 2.0% in Feb, (better than expect, 0.0%)
  • US Mar construction spending up 0.3% from -1.0% in Feb, (better, -1.6%)
  • Huge improve from last month, need to see May & Jun trend to confirm whether the economy has already hit the bottom and start recoving;
Job market
  • US Apr nonfarmer job pos down -539k from -699k in Mar, (better, -600k)
  • US Apr unemployment rate up to 8.9% from 8.5% in Mar, (same, 8.9%)
  • US 05/02 initital jobless claims down to 601k from 635k last week, (better, 635k)
Retail market
  • US Apr IMS Services up to 43.7 from 40.8 in Mar, (better, 42.2). Still below 50 even we see improvement;
  • US 1q09 productivity up +0.8% from down -0.6% in 4q08, (better, +0.6%)
Others
  • Canada Apr non-farmer job pos up +36k, (better, -50k). Increase mainly on self-employ pos, so it doesn't really reflect an improvement in job market;
  • Canada Apr unemployement rate keep at 8.0%, same as Mar, better than expect;

5.07.2009

Opinion: Buy & Hold

堅持信念,雨過天晴!

我認為這次金融風暴最壞的一波已經過去,儘管未來事態可能還會有變,而我也在這場風暴裡學到點東西,就是我們應該相信自己,然後堅守自己的信念。「中途換馬」顯然是沒用的。很多人企圖跟上大市,在逆境中沽出,在好景時買入,但他們往往會捉錯時機,發現自己在升市中已無可再沽,就像現在一樣。

我們不應該買入任何我們不確定是否值得的股票,也應該堅守自己認為值得持有的股票。

我建議的做法是:買股後將之放在保險箱裡,然後每年查看兩次就夠了。不過前提當然是你要以長綫投資為目標,不然的話你也可以更頻密地查看持股,但我不建議你每天都檢視你的投資組合,因為如果你跟市太貼,你很可能會被誘作出將會後悔的選擇。

但不少人都不太理會一家公司的長遠表現,而只是把股市視為一個賭場,在好景時賺點錢,在逆境時則難免要虧點錢。很多時候這完全是出於對市場的「感覺」,而沽出也不過是因股價意外地波動的結果而已。

但比方說你持有恆生(11)的股票,你的目標則不應該放在短期利潤,而是長遠而言必然上升的高股息。那些靠昨天10%股價波幅獲利的買家,或許的卻能賺點錢,但哪怕他們能賺個20% -- 如果他們在3月以80元左右買入的話 -- 相較之下也沒有什麼大不了,因為其未來三年的利潤可能達100%,還沒計算6%的股息,而長綫買家也能享受高於100%的升值。就如其母公司匯控(5)一樣,這是個長綫投資,而不是投機項目。

按兵不動也是一門學問!我的意思是,你購買一隻股票後,把它放進保險箱裡,然後不理會它,也不問其股價走勢如何。我頗肯定,你的財富將會穩步上揚。這未必是最好的賺錢方法,而如果你真的得知什麼重大消息的話,你當然可以有所行動。但對大部分投資者而言,不對投資組合作過度管理,反倒能獲利更多。我其實正在觀察我的鑽石投資組合,表面上虧蝕了20%,但再細看當中的組成部分,我還是感到相當滿意。一般投資者往往只會留意自己的組合能否賺錢,而一個虧蝕的組合,對他們而言必然是失敗的。但我的著眼點,不是已過去的損失,而是未來組合能帶來的升值和強勁利潤。

目前表現最差的宏利 (945) ,對我來說還是這組合中最值得買的股票之一,我充滿信心,認為假以時日,它的股價將會重試350元的高位,而在未來20年內它將能衝破1,000元關口。我說這句話絕對對得起良心。持股越久,獲利越多。同樣道理亦適用於匯控 (5) ,因為我看不見它有倒閉危機,而恰恰倒閉就是唯一一個能阻止它股價上升的因素 - 雖然還有不少論調,說銀行業的前景已大為不同。

或許這是對的,但還是讓我們回歸到基本原則上看問題吧。談到基本原則,匯控也許是眾多國際銀行中最守規矩的一員,所以我不認為新的規管會對匯控帶來太多困擾。

我承認,目前組合裡35%的銀行股,或者算上宏利後得出的48%金融股的比例,的確過高,但我也相信,這行業正正就是受創最深的,也是市場中最便宜的。

似乎我好像偏離了「按兵不動」這個主題了。我認為,如果某隻股票的價格下跌的話,那麼其他持股的獲利將可彌補之。只要組合能足夠地分散投資,那麼整體價值還是會比以前高。因此,購買目標的質素才是最關鍵的因素,而不是其股價便宜與否,儘管我們也不可以不看價目就隨便買東西。
不過,這也要看你的儲蓄習慣,還有組合的大小,但如果你肯堅持的話,那就沒什麼好擔心的了。

From 東尼日志的日志

News: Stress Test

CNN Money.com

THE EVENT: The Federal Reserve is directing at least seven of the nation's 19 top banks to boost their capital levels by $65 billion. The official test results, to be released at 5 p.m. EDT, will show which banks appear able to weather the economic crisis without more help.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, answering questions at the Chicago Fed, said that while he hopes stress tests add to market confidence, they aren't meant to be a test of the banks' solvency.

THE DETAILS: In the stress test results release, the Fed's analysts will report their estimates of losses and loss rates across select categories of loans, resources available to absorb those losses, and the resulting necessary additions to capital buffers. The estimates reported by the Federal Reserve represent values for a hypothetical 'what-if' scenario and are not forecasts of expected losses or revenues for the firms, according to the Fed.

The institutions must have Grade-A Tier 1 capital of at least 6% of assets, and will be required to have a "significant" amount of their total equity in common shares, according to a statement laying out the test criteria. In addition to the Tier 1 risk-based capital commonly used, the stress tests also focus on a minimum "Tier 1 common capital" level of 4%. The additional measure " reflects the fact that common equity is the first element of the capital structure to absorb loss," according to a joint statement released by bank regulators.

The following institutions were directed to raise capital:
* Bank of America Corp. (BAC) $34 billion
* Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) $13 billion to 15 billion
* GMAC LLC $11.5 billion
* Citigroup Inc. (C) $5 billion
* Morgan Stanley (MS) $1.5 billion
* Regions Financial Corp. (RF) Amount unknown
* State Street Corp. (STT) Amount unknown

These institutions were deemed not to need new capital:
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
* American Express Co. (AXP)
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)
* Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK)
* MetLife Inc. (MET)
* Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)

Results for these institutions weren't known:
* Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
* KeyCorp (KEY)
* PNC Financial Services (PNC)
* SunTrust Banks Inc.(STI)

MARKET REACTION: Financial stocks turned lower as investors awaited the release of the stress-test results. Though pitfalls remain for the financial system and the economy, investors have shown increasing willingness lately to bet that the worst of the crisis is over, at least.
Shares of Bank of America Corp. and Fifth Third Bancorp were still up after rallying more than 15% Thursday as investors digested the leaked results of the stress tests and concluded they would be better for the banks than expected. The early rally extended to the entire sector, but some of the banks lost steam. Citigroup recently was down 6%, Capital One was up 15%, and Huntington Bancshares rose 1.7%.

Major stock indexes traded down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average 121 points lower, to 8389.

The Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF), which tracks the financial stocks in the S&P 500, turned negative as well, falling 2%.

Treasury prices also continued to slump Thursday, with the entire curve under pressure, and yields hit fresh highs for the year after the government's final Treasury auction of the week.
Crude futures surged to nearly a six-month high, meanwhile, driven by the prospect of higher oil demand as major economies recover. Other commodities gained similarly.

WHAT IT MEANS: The banks that need capital will have until June 8 to develop a detailed plan for how they will raise any new required capital, the Fed and other bank regulators said Wednesday, and until Nov. 9 to implement that plan.

Many market participants seem to be seeing signs of potential recovery in the leaked and unknown results of the stress tests.

WHAT'S NEXT: After the results of the Treasury Department's stress test of the U.S.'s largest banks are released, the market will begin to guess what the results mean for the smaller banks that weren't tested.

But the government said in a statement Wednesday night that it had no intention of expanding the stress test beyond the 19 largest banks. It also said that "smaller financial institutions generally maintain capital levels, especially common equity, well above regulatory capital standards."

The following are key stories:
-STRESS TESTS: GMAC Faces Capital Drain
-Bernanke: Hopes Stress Tests Add To Mkt Confidence
-Budget Projects $91B In Losses From US Bank Failures In '09-10
-Treasurys Down As Stocks Rise; 10-Year Yield Tops 3.25%
-Stress Tests Separate Strong Banks From Weak
-US Weekly Jobless Claims Drop By 34,000
-Bernanke Says Regulators Must Be More Vigilant
-STRESS TESTS: Government Using Little-Known Capital Measure

5.06.2009

China Life 1q09 results

Overview
The largest life insurance company in China with more than 40% market share in 2008 and RMB $1,045B total asset and the largest life insurance company in the world by market capitalization. It has 3 main lines of business: Life, Annuities and Health & Accident. It also operates an asset management company. In 2008, it is developing a new lines of business as an underwriter on fixed security issuance.

1q09 Results (vs 1q08)
=> 1st of all, please note that LFC's 1q09 results is in China Accounting Standard instead of IFRS. And CAS's total assets, liabilities and equity balance are all lower than the balance reported in IFRS.

1. Total Revenue up 4.7% to RMB $116.3B
- Total annualized premium (tradition & investment) up 1.8% to RMB $104B, much lower than Ping An's 43.4% increase.
- Net earned premium up 1.8% to RMB $103.4B;
- Net investment income & gain up 38.3% to RMB $12.5B, inline with my expectation. As the equity market continue to go up while the interest rate stop reducing, I will expect the increase in investment income to be continue in 2q.
- return on net assets up 61.1% to 3.68%, still lower than the average return of the international competitors;

2. Reported EPS up 58.3% to RMB $0.19
- EPS in line with expectation
- Loss ratio up to 72.7% from 72.0%;
- Total expense ratio (excluded impairment & participating dividend) down to 90.7% from 93.9%
- Total expense ratio down to 94.4% from 96.7%.
- In income statement prospective, I am glad to see a decreasing trend in expenses;

3. Balance Sheet (vs 4q08)
- Total assets up 7.8% to RMB $1,067.8B, that is a lot in one quarter for an insurance company;
-Total Equity and AOCI up 8.1% and 8.8% to RMB $145.9B and RMB $ 69.5B, better than my expectation.

Risk
- Increase competition as bank may aggressively expand into insurance market if regulation relax further in future;
- Increase competition as foreign insurance company may get more market share over time;
- Potential investment reture drop due to equity market and weak economy

Comments
Buy, fair value HKG $34.95. No change from the previous review.

5.05.2009

Opinion: Warren Buffett's point on U.S. debt

《第一財經日報》
2009/05/05文:周佳
「他們(中國人)辛勤勞作生產產品給美國人用,而我們給他們一些紙片。」

剛剛在伯克希爾‧哈撒韋公司股東大會上指責了美國大發國債的「股神」巴菲特,5月3日下午在一場記者招待會上再次批評美國高負債的政策。他指出:「一個國家欠了越來越多的債務,會在將來某個時候做些不正當的事情。這會引起很大的國際關注,因爲債權人會擔心你把貨幣貶值來逃避債務。」

中國是美國外債受害者在談及美國大量借債的行爲時,巴菲特特別提到了中國,他說:「他們(中國人)每日辛勤勞作生產產品給美國人用,而我們給他們一些紙片。當他們想用這些紙片,例如幾年前來買優尼科石油公司的時候,卻發現這紙片不能達到他們想要的目的(2005年中海油競購優尼科,因遭美國方面阻撓而失敗)。」巴菲特進一步表示:「中國每年的貿易順差達到2000多億美元,當他們發現美元沒辦法購買他們想要的東西之後,他們會問,爲什麽要出口美國,而不是自己用呢?」儘管目前的低油價減少了美國的貿易赤字,但巴菲特還是呼籲,美國應當想辦法減少債務和赤字。

給銀行系統「診斷開藥」巴菲特批評了美國政府對全美19家大銀行的壓力測試。「大型借貸機構的健康狀況不能通過比例分析和改變一大堆例如信用卡債、房屋淨值抵押貸款等資産的損失預期來評估。」巴菲特持有的富國銀行和US Bancorp都在壓力測試名單中。測試結果本周五就要公佈,公佈的結果可能要部分銀行提高資本金。巴菲特說:「這些銀行不需要更多的資本金。富國和其他美國的大型銀行有截然不同的商業模式。」

同時,巴菲特有一個憂慮,那就是那些「做壓力測試的人可能把銀行的某項資産看得過重,而不去考慮銀行間不盡相同的商業模型和資産組成」。巴菲特還舉了個例子——富國銀行裏有一類有價證券是來自于貸款仲介的,而另一類就來自于富國銀行自己。貸款仲介的有價證券損失很大,而政府的壓力測試可能把兩者一視同仁。這讓他很擔憂。「銀行的壓力測試很有可能進行得很糟,」

巴菲特的老搭檔、伯克希爾‧哈撒韋公司副主席芒格也在記者會上說,「也許這整個就不是什麽好主意。」 「如果銀行不能從投資人手中募集到資金,就可能再次被迫接受政府的注資。政府目前已經擁有美國最大的幾家銀行的很多優先股股票,尤其是其中的一些優先股可能被轉化成普通股來強化銀行的資本結構。但是這樣會攤薄現有的股東權益,對他們的利益造成損失。」巴菲特說。

當地媒體上周六報道,花旗銀行會被要求增加100億美元的資本金,其他的銀行例如美國銀行,也可能收到類似要求。對於現在華爾街流行的「太大而不能倒」觀點,巴菲特有不同的意見。「太大而不能倒」一般是說金融機構如果太大,一旦出現問題,政府就不會放任不管。但巴菲特認爲,美國政府正在進行壓力測試的大多數銀行,都不會由於太大而不能倒閉。如果政府一定要把重擔壓到自己身上,那麽,當壓力測試結果公佈時,「我不知道政府將如何掌控那時的情形。」

巴菲特給出了自己的藥方:「如果聯邦存款保險局批准交易,我相信壓力測試中有15家銀行在資不抵債的情況下都可以順利找到買家而不用納稅人花一分錢。」他同時補充道,「最大的4家銀行可能有所不同」。按照資産計算,目前美國最大的4家銀行應該是摩根大通、花旗銀行、美國銀行和富國銀行。然而這些滿是壞賬的銀行,誰會想買下,巴菲特卻沒有明說。

「我從沒想過要退休」記者會上,不少記者都問及巴菲特的退休計劃和繼承人事宜。CBN記者問78歲的巴菲特是否想過何時退休。巴菲特自信地說:「我從沒想過你說的。如果有身體上的問題,那是一回事。人們會以不同的形式變老。我們的理事會成員都(在公司)投入了很多錢,他們不會希望一個變得愚蠢的人來管理它。」至於接班人的問題,他告訴記者,目前自己和芒格兩人身體都非常硬朗,「如果我知道任何嚴重的(身體)問題,我會公開它的,我會公開任何影響市場的因素。」84歲的芒格也說,「我們的身體令人驚訝地好。」雖然關於巴菲特繼承人的消息從幾年前就開始廣受人們猜測,但巴菲特依然咬緊口風。巴菲特告訴記者們,「沒有辦法定下名字,我的繼承人名單上有一群人,他們都非常優秀。」

Opinion: Hong Kong's finanical center position in future

陶冬

国务院决定,全力将上海打造成国际金融中心。消息传来,笔者认为香港金融业至少减寿五年。

香港负责财经事物的高官表示,经过内部评估,港府不担心来自上海的竞争,对香港维持金融业的繁荣持乐观态度。要么港府为维持公众信心而故作镇静,要么港府作内部评估的人士脱离现实、误判形势。笔者认为,国务院此项决定对香港经济有极其深远的影响,港府采取驼鸟态度,于事无补,只会进一步错失机会。逆水行舟,不进则退。

其实,近年的香港经济是“一好掩百丑”。当年的四大支柱产业——金融、物流、旅游、工商支援服务,如今只剩下一个半。旅游业在大陆游客的刺激下形势不错,不过除去大陆游客,其它国家游客数量并不理想,当年的大主顾日本旅客的到港人数更是暴跌。

真正还称得上支柱产业的,仅剩下金融业。不过所谓金融业,香港只有股市,近年撑起股市的是中资股,令资本市场赚钱的是中资IPO。去年,《经济学人》杂志曾将香港评为仅次于纽约、伦敦的第三个全球金融中心。这对于过去最大野心也不过是区域金融中心的香港,真是莫大的荣耀。中国的崛起,为香港提供了历史性机遇,机会来自始于2001年的A股连年的熊市和不可拖延的国有银行改革。朱镕基一声令下,香港股市成了中国银行改革的实验场,也打造出香港金融业空前的繁荣。接下来的房地产热、基建热、QDII热,将港股推上一个又一个新高潮。

香港拥有世界一流的资本市场软环境,从法制精神到基础设施、从投资银行到监管管治,一切都来得很自然,并无刻意的追求。中国的大环境和A股的不景,是将香港资本市场推上国际金融中心的两个必不可缺的因素。不过最重要的,还是香港的股市准备好了,抓住了机遇。

股市之外,香港金融业并没有取得什么新的突破。发展债券市场,一直是只闻楼梯声不见人下来,除了在中国大力推动下发行了几次人民币债券外,近年几乎乏善可陈。甚至连发债建立一条政府债券收益曲线,作为债市的基准都一拖再拖。商品市场、黄金市场、能源交易,香港坐在世界第一大商品消费国门口,号称中国的对外窗口,但在市场开拓上一事无成。私人银行业务近年有明显的扩充,但是发展却落后于竞争的新加坡,衍生产品accumulator更使香港的私人银行业务遭受重创,相信业务又被打回原形!

成事不足,败事却有余。上市委员会在上市公司延长股票禁售期上的表现,凸显出管治上的缺陷。港交所明知收市后U盘交易存在明显的漏洞,却未亡羊补牢,直至汇控股价在收市后对盘被操纵,导致一场波及全球的市场震荡。雷曼迷你债券的销售手法上,存在着监管的盲点,监管漏洞全世界都有,但是监管的当事人不思反省反而抛出“先知先决”论,就令人费解了。一国两制下,北京难以直接插手香港金融事务和监管,在言语上对香港仍十分客气,但是香港的不思进取、安于现状,相信中央是看在眼里的,对于潜在的金融风险,相信中央是急在心上的。

当然,将上海建成国际金融中心,更有中国经济自身的全盘考虑。中国的国力日强,对世界的影响愈来愈大。建立起与国家实力相适应,与商业需求相配合的国际金融平台,既是自然的也是必要的。作为世界第一大商品进口国,中国需要在商品市场有更大的话语权。美元信用扫地,贬值风险大增,作为世界第一大外汇储备国,中国有必要加速人民币国际化过程。维持金融业的繁荣持乐观态度。

有人认为,中国经济在成长,完全有可能容得下两个金融中心。其实随着信息技术的飞跃发展和全球化的推进,一批交易所已经在被边缘化了,有生命力的股市在减少而不是增多。目前,全世界除了美国的NASDAQ外,还没有任何国家有成功的第二股市。NASDAQ成为科技企业的上市集散地,有十分鲜明的特性;而沪、港股市的内容大体同质,区别并不明显,唯一的隔离是人民币政策。

过去中国缺钱,需要进口资金,又不希望开放资本项目。香港的存在为内地提供了一个在不对热钱开放的情况下向海外集资的平台。时过境迁,中国现在成了世界最大的储蓄国,海外不再是集资的唯一渠道。今天国内既有大量企业有集资的需要,又有大量资金寻求投资的机会,国际金融机构和人才纷纷进驻上海,香港的垄断性优势在减弱,甚至消失。

笔者看来,上海与香港各有一优势一劣势。上海的劣势在于市场的软环境。法制、监管、人才、效率上的提高,远比建金融大厦更困难,也不是几项政策优惠便能解决问题的。在软环境上,香港具有优势,不过上海在迎头赶上。上海政府在做事,拼命地做事,千方百计地做事,每天都在做事。

香港的优势在软环境上,而劣势则是政府的无所作为。整个体制陷于官僚化的、无效率的程序陷阱,没有创新思维,没有改革勇气,缺乏危机感,缺乏前瞻性策略,更缺乏行动效率。想想朱镕基当年“议而不决,决而不行”的批评,看看港府的改进,不知特首作何感想,不知香港纳税人作何感想。

每次笔者谈起香港必须未雨绸缪,开发新的金融产品,占领新的市场制高点,都有港府官员理直气壮地反问,香港又能做什么?为什么新加坡可以在两年内抢走瑞士私人银行上百亿美元的业务,香港却做不到?中国主权基金、大型企业资金在海外面临投资困难,为什么香港不能主动帮忙,进而成为中国资金海外投资的大本营?港府官员除了在人民币离岸中心上守株待兔外,似乎根本就没有真正动过脑筯。

香港公务员是一个运作极好的机器,但是没有大脑,缺乏独立的、具有前瞻性的战略思考。过去没有大脑不要紧,有英国人做主将策略性的工作做了。回归之后,英国人走了,中央政府又没有插手港府运作,香港的政策制订和政策效率就变得手忙脚乱。有相当一段时间,人们把问题归在董建华的管治身上。之后随着内地在自由行的开放和IPO上的输血,危机被暂时掩盖住了。但是整个体制一直在繁忙地做无用功,官僚主义的拖延和立法会的掣肘,使得港府没有做出任何真正具有前瞻性、策略性的工作,遇到困难第一时间上北京寻求政策性支持。

当北京宣布将上海建成国际金融中心时,香港政坛似乎更关注某些议员讲粗口,负责财经的高官出来见记者也只是讲了些无关痛痒的话。开始笔者还以为他们碍于政治考虑不便多评论中央政策和上海事物,后来发现港府内部评估好象真的没把此事当成一个危机来看待。公务员的薪酬中,退休后的长俸份量最重,所以人们多打定“做少错少”的思想,没人愿意思考、愿意承担,于是推诿成风,得过且过,讨论和评估成了小圈子里的过场戏,战略性决策和执行则能拖就拖。少了金融业,不知香港的高租金、高楼价靠什么去撑?到时候,公务员的高薪靠什么支持?

在人民币成为国际货币、中国资本项目开放前,香港股市还有几年好光景。假如香港能融入珠三角的经济转型,并成为其金融窗口,与上海还能在竞争中共同进步。但是如果香港不思进取,坐吃山空,不仅中资公司会在上海两地上市,汇丰、长实也可能到上海挂牌,届时香港金融业就面临着被边缘化的命运。

笔者看来,香港今天是中国的纽约,以后则是中国的佛罗里达。

维持金融业的繁荣持乐观态度。要么港府为维(本文原载于经济通,为个人观点,并非任何劝诱或投资建议)

5.04.2009

A Day In The Life Of Warren Buffett (Fiction)

Bilibala: A funny fiction/story about Warren Buffett's typical day.

Posted by: guruek (IP Logged) [Ignore this user]
Date: May 1, 2009 11:29AM

Many an investor prays for the ability to pick stocks like Warren Buffett, who owns significant stakes in Coke, GEICO, American Express and other outstanding companies. Perhaps by seeing what he does, we can get a clue as to where his genius comes from. On the eve of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting, we thought we would publish a day in the life of the Oracle of Omaha:

6:00 am - Buffett's $5 alarm clock purchased in 1963 finally gives out, causing him to sleep in.

7:19 am - Maria Bartiromo calls and asks if Warren's got a date yet for that "Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation thingamabob coming up in a few weeks". Coincidentally, Maria has just bought a new outfit and is looking for an occasion on which to wear it.

7:46 am - Buffett fields calls from 8 different reporters asking about Buffett's recent purchase of 3 companies. Buffett has never heard of the companies and politely declines comment, slamming the phone down after each call and cursing, "Lou! What the bejesus are you up to now?"

8:23 am - Buffett strides into work in a good mood thanks to the extra sleep and promptly offers his secretary a raise. His secretary hesitates, since she already has a higher salary than he does.

8:35 am - Buffett retrieves his messages and finds 18 messages from President Obama pleading for help with the economy.

8:36 am - Buffett places a call to GEICO looking for a better insurance rate on the private jet.

10:13 am - Maria Bartiromo calls again "just to say hi and see how things are going".

10:52 am - Buffett starts up his computer for the purpose of loading Yahoo! Bridge

10:57 am - Buffett shuts down his computer in disgust. Another quick loss to user Challengr!

2:15 pm - Buffett strolls over to Nebraska Furniture Mart, and sneaks downstairs to where the beds are for his afternoon nap. Buffett congratulates himself for reducing depreciation charges on his own bed by not sleeping at home.

3:47 pm - On the way back from Nebraska Furniture Mart, the bus Buffett is riding breaks down and he is forced to wait 20 minutes while the operator attempts repairs.

3:48 pm - While waiting, Buffett pulls out his ValueLine pocketbook and casually leafs through the pages

3:49 pm - Buffett identifies a stock from his ValueLine book that's trading at a discount to intrinsic value.

3:50 pm - Buffett borrows a cellphone from a fellow passenger and places a call to Charlie to purchase the stock.

4:42 pm - Buffett walks to the corner store for the fifth time today to purchase a Cherry Coke. The man running the store politely offers to deliver a few cases to Berkshire headquarters for a nominal delivery charge, to which Buffett politely declines. Other customers hear Buffett mutter "Ain't no margin of safety in delivery expenses" on his way out.

6:48 pm - Buffett fields a call from the GEICO cavemen asking for new tennis rackets and shoes. Buffett politely explains the rackets are not meant for hunting, to which Caveman #1 replies "Oh, so you're one of them too I see!" before slamming down the phone.

7:14 pm - Buffett notices a tear in his suit and makes a mental note to stop by Walmart tomorrow for a new one. Since this suit only lasted 16 years, 8 months and 23 days, Buffett thinks to himself "They just don't make 'em like they used to."

9:00 pm - Buffett hits the sack, satisfied that today he has made $300 for himself and $30 million for Berkshire Hathaway.

We hope you enjoyed "A Day In The Life Of Warren Buffett". For the real Warren Buffett story, you may want to read the only biography of his that he has endorsed, The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life

Saj Karsan

Biliala: I haven't read The Snowball yet, but I think there are lots of book that has written are as good as it. If you want to know who about Buffett, the best is to read is Warren Buffett's shareholders' letters.

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting 2009

Notes on Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting From reuters

Q1 Operating Results and Book Value
Buffett told a record crowd at a somber annual meeting of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc that first-quarter operating profit fell and the company's book value declined 6 percent, as the recession weighed on many of the company's businesses and investments. Operating profit fell about 12 percent from a year earlier to $1.7 billion, as most of Berkshire's businesses were "basically down," Buffett told an estimated 35,000 people at the meeting in downtown Omaha. The decline in book value results in part from falling stock prices and higher losses on derivatives contracts, and comes on top of a 9.6 percent decline last year, the biggest drop since Buffett began running the company in 1965.

Predict Gloomy Economy but Stimulate Activity Working
Buffett offered a gloomy forecast for parts of the U.S. economy and Berkshire itself, though he said massive federal efforts to stimulate activity could pay off at a possible cost of higher inflation. "It has been a very extraordinary year," Buffett said. "When the American public pulls back the way they have, the government does need to step in.... It is the right thing to do, but it won't be a free ride."

Housing Prices, Retailers and Newspapers
Buffett said housing prices have yet to stabilize broadly, that retailers may be under pressure for a "considerable period of time," and that he would not buy most U.S. newspaper companies "at any price."

Insurance not as good
He also said that in insurance, which comprises about half of Berkshire's operations, the earnings power "was not as good last year as normal" and "won't be as good this year."

Succession
Buffett also said the four candidates to replace him as Berkshire's chief investment officer failed to outperform the Standard & Poor's 500 last year, but remained confident they could perform well over time. Berkshire still has three internal candidates to replace Buffett as chief executive. Buffett declined to name the candidates to replace him as chief executive officer and chief investment officer, but said Ajit Jain, who runs much of his insurance businesses and whom investors believe is a CEO contender, is irreplaceable. "It would be impossible to replace Ajit," he said. "We wouldn't give the latitude to size or risk that we would give to Ajit.... We won't find a substitute for him." Buffett said that for any CEO candidate, "the biggest job they have will be to develop relationships with potential sellers of businesses." But he added that while Berkshire is much less nimble than it was when it was smaller, "our sustainable competitive advantage is we have a culture and business model that people would find very, very difficult to copy." Munger added: "The stupidity in the management practices of the rest of the corporate world will likely be ample enough to give this company some comparative advantage in the future."

No stock buyback
Berkshire 's stock has fallen 39 percent since December 2007, and profit last year fell 62 percent from a year earlier. Buffett said he would not buy back Berkshire stock now, because its share price is not "demonstrably below" the company's intrinsic value.

Derivatives
Much of the worry about Berkshire has focused on Buffett's use of derivatives in making long-term bets on the direction of stocks and junk bonds, and which have so far resulted in billions of dollars of paper losses. While Buffett still expects the contracts tied to equity stock indexes to make money, he said "we have run into far more bankruptcies in the last year than is normal." He said he now expects the contracts tied to credit defaults will show a loss before investment income, and perhaps after as well. Buffett still distinguishes his derivatives from others such as credit default swaps, given that he collects billions of dollars of premiums upfront to invest and posts little collateral. He called other derivatives "a danger to the system. There is no question about that."

Wells Fargo & US Bancorp
Buffett expressed confidence in Wells Fargo & Co, one of Berkshire's biggest investments, saying it has "by far the best competitive position" of any large U.S. bank. He also said some banks will weather the credit crisis well, saying that if he wanted to turn Berkshire into a bank holding company, "I would love to buy all of US Bancorp, or I would love to buy all of Wells."

Moody’s
He also defended Berkshire's roughly 20 percent stake in Moody's Corp, a credit rating agency faulted for failing to predict the housing crisis and assigning high ratings to risky debt for too long. "They made a huge mistake" but were not alone, Buffett said. "The rating agency business is probably still a good business, (but) it won't be doing the volume probably for a long time in certain areas of the capital markets."

Bilibala's comments:
I will look forward to read the 1q09 results on the coming Friday, May 8th.

5.01.2009

Econ data: 09 week 18

Chrysler finally filed the chapter 11 bankruptcy protection yesterday and both US & Canada government offer support by buying 8% & 2% of its shares. Hope that it will restructure in 2-3 years time.

Econ Data
Overall
  • US 1q09 GDP (advance) down -6.1% compare with -6.3% in 4q08 (worse than expect, -4.7%) but in line with my expectation;

House Market

  • US Apr house price down -18.63% vs Apr 08, (same, -18.70%) the decline finally slow down and kind of stablized;

Job Market

  • US 09/04/25 initial jobless claim down to 631k from 640k last week, (better, -645k)
  • US Mar personal income down -0.3% from -0.2% in Feb, (worse, -0.2%)

Retail Market

  • US Apr consumer confidence index up to 39.2 from 26.9 in Mar (better, 29.7)
  • US Mar personal spending down -0.2% from +0.4% in Feb (worse, -0.1%)
  • US Apr ISM index up to 39.5 from 36.3 in Mar, (better, 38.4)
  • US factory orders down -0.4% from +1.8% in Mar, (better, -0.6%)
The information provided in the entire blog is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax or specific investment advice. The information presented was obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, I cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. I assume no responsibility for any losses, whether direct, special or consequential, that arise out of the use of this information. This information is subject to change without notice. Stock performance are not guaranteed, their prices change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please do your own investigation, or contact your own professional advise, before investing.