Baidu (Nasdaq:BIDU) recorded net income of RMB 492.9 million ($72.2 million) in the third quarter of 2009, up 41.7% year-on-year. Total revenues reached RMB 1.28 billion ($187.3 million) in the quarter up 39.1% from the corresponding period in 2008, with online marketing revenues contributing RMB 1.278 billion ($187.2 million).
=> Earning & growth in line with Bilibala's expectation. However, its 12 month price earning growth ratio looks a bit high. If based on 2010 forward price earning growth ratio, then it looks ok.
Baidu saw its active online marketing customers in the quarter increase 11.3% annually and 6.4% sequentially to 216,000, with average revenue per online marketing customer at RMB 5,900 ($864), up 25.5% year-on-year and 9.3% quarter-on-quarter. The company reported traffic acquisition cost (TAC) of RMB 196.2 million ($28.7 million), or 15.3% of total revenues, as compared to 11.8% in the corresponding period in 2008 and 16.0% in the second quarter of 2009. Baidu attributed the annual increase to fast growth in its Baidu Union business.
The company warned it expects revenues ranging from RMB1.19 billion ($174 million) to RMB 1.23 billion ($180 million) for the fourth quarter of 2009, up 32-36% year-on-year, as it anticipates a negative impact from discontinuing its "classic" bid ranking system.
=> "slower" growth trigger investors to sell Baidu's shares. Share price fall significantly by 13.2% from US$432.97 on Monday to US$375.72 on Friday (after market). Bilibala think after the fall, Baidu once again looks attractive.
10.31.2009
投资者常犯错误 fr 曹仁超投資者周記
投资者常犯错误：
一、唔分清方向，常站在路中心，结果无论跌市或升市都被车辗死。
二、一年内最赚钱项目通常只有两、三个甚至有四个，唔可能天天都有。请投资者减少每年买卖次数，做神枪手唔好做机关枪手（乱扫一通）。
三、不要尝试捉住下跌中嘅刀已系老生常谈，但唔少人一犯再犯。
四、大部分日子唔好炒卖细价股，只有在极少数日子里细价股才可跑赢大市。
五、2007年11月开始，香港股市已进入Trader's Market，唔再系「买入后长期持有」嘅日子。(Bilibala disagree with this one)
六、It is not a stock market, it is a market of stock.（股市只系一个提供股票买卖嘅市场而已。）在牛市可以赚钱，在熊市中可以发大财。（Make Money in a Bull market, Make Fortune in a bear market.）一切看阁下眼光而定。
七、如果你冇去别人嘅「婚礼」，请亦唔好参加别人嘅「丧礼」。多少人眼见一只股份由1元升上2元，再由2元升上3元、4元、5元、6元、7元、8元……最后忍唔住手在9元买入，然后睇住佢嘅股价由9元回落到8元、7元、6元……机会失去了，就让它溜走吧！
八、今后日子里，Timing is everything。学习如何掌握买卖时机。
九、买股票唔系买名气。1981年嘅佳宁；1997年嘅北控（392）；2000年嘅电盈（008），在当年都系名气十分大嘅股份，结果点样？
十、获利回吐唔系卖出一只股份嘅理由。买入一只股份系因为你相信佢未来股价可以上升，卖出嘅理由亦一样，除非你担心佢嘅股价在未来将回落才卖出，而非因为已有利润而出售。请记住止蚀唔止赚！
<<转载自信报>>香港「败家仔」出现机率高
富不过三代？中文大学9月 发表研究报告指，香港每百个家族企业中，到孙儿嗰一代仍然十分成功嘅只有三家。香港到咗第三代败家仔出现率高于台湾及新加坡一倍。理由系香港富豪第一代太 成功，到第二代接手时，唔少企业已系市值过百亿元嘅公司，管理以千计甚至上万名员工，业务遍及全世界咁庞大嘅企业，一般CEO亦未必能管得好，何况出身豪门嘅世家子弟？佢地唔少留学海外回港接手后，同企业内嘅老臣子意见不合，数目不在少数。
根据汇丰私人银行与顾问公司合作研究嘅结果发现，华人家庭企业由第二代接手后，约70％家族企业未能超越创办人年代，成功嘅只占30％。 能够顺利过渡到第三代仍然成功嘅家族企业更少。研究报告指出，要家族企业能一直发展落去，第一代领导人必须懂得放手，摆脱传统观念「父传子」此无形枷锁。 响企业管治上增加透明度及引入外人协助管理，建立良好制度去平衡可能出现嘅新旧文化冲突（例如子女海外学成归来与旧臣子之间嘅矛盾）。第一代创业期，公司 规模细，生存空间受威胁，企业内容易产生枪杆子一致对外嘅想法，因当时共同敌人在企业之外（即来自其他企业的竞争）。但到咗第二代接手之时，企业已有一定 规模，外间威胁下降，反而内部矛盾浮现。企业矛头很容易由「枪杆子一致对外」转为「内耗期」。第二代与老臣子之间的矛盾，甚至第二代之间的互相矛盾，到咗 第三代企业内部矛盾激化成为你死我活的斗争，已无暇理会企业的死活。
GST And PST To Become HST As Ontario Budget Ups Your Taxes
FYI, very useful links, easy to understand:
GST And PST To Become HST As Ontario Budget Ups Your Taxes
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/news/local/article/9631--gst-and-pst-to-become-hst-as-ontario-budget-ups-your-taxesHow Will The Budget Affect Your Family?
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/life/family/article/9642--how-will-the-budget-affect-your-familyTax Cuts Will Put More Money In Your Pocket
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/life/money/article/9641--tax-cuts-will-put-more-money-in-your-pocket10.30.2009
Bilibala Finance Portfolio - Oct 09
Top 10 Holdings @ Oct 30, 09
- China Life 4.4% M/M
- China Mobile (4.8%) M/M
- Google 8.1% M/M
- China Cons Bank 9.8% M/M
- Wells Fargo (2.3%) M/M
- Manulife (9.8%) M/M
- Berkshire Hathaway (1.2%) M/M
- HSBC (3.4%) M/M
- Shui On Land 8.1% M/M
- Imperial Oil (0.1%) M/M
Top 5 Sectors in Holdings @ Oct 30, 09
- Insurance 36.3%
- Telecom 27.4%
- Banking 13.8%
- Info Tech 6.7%
- Conglomerate 4.1%
Performance & Market Stat @ Oct 30, 09
- Bilibala Finance up 0.6% in Oct & up 107.8% from bottom
- Toronto down 4.2% in Oct & up 45.9% from bottom
- S&P500 down 2.0% in Oct & up 55.4% from bottom
- Hong Kong up 3.8% in Oct & up 103.7% from bottom
- Shanghai up 7.8% in Oct & up 79.9% from bottom
Brookfield Properties 3q09 press release
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 29, 2009-- Brookfield Properties Corporation (BPO: NYSE, TSX) today announced that net income for the three months ended September 30, 2009 was $38 million or $0.08 per diluted share, compared with $174 million or $0.44 per diluted share during the same period in 2008. Included in net income in 2008 was a net gain of $127 million, or $0.32 per share, on the sale of TD Canada Trust Tower in Toronto.
Funds from operations (“FFO”) was $151 million or $0.34 per diluted share for the three months ended September 30, 2009, compared with $152 million or $0.38 per diluted share during the same period in 2008. Commercial property net operating income for the third quarter of 2009 was $330 million, compared with $320 million during the third quarter of 2008.
During the third quarter, Brookfield Properties leased 693,000 square feet of space in its anaged portfolio at an average net rent of $25 per square foot, which represents a 25% improvement versus the average expiring net rent of $20 on this space in the quarter. Additionally, the company has improved its five-year lease rollover exposure by 330 basis points since the start of the year. Year-todate leasing totals 3.2 million square feet. Brookfield’s managed portfolio occupancy rate finished the quarter at 95.0%, unchanged from the previous quarter.
=> FFO in line with Analysts' expectation. Real estate market in North America starts to pick up, with fairly heathy cash position after new share & bond issued and high occupancy rate of 95%, Bilibala think Brookfield will benefit from the economy recover.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE THIRD QUARTER
Leased 693,000 square feet of space and completed 63,000 square feet of development leasing. Renewals represent 74% of the total with new leases representing the remainder. Third quarter leasing highlights include:
Toronto – 211,000 square feet
A 144,000-square-foot lease extension with the Department of Justice at Exchange Tower
Washington, DC – 154,000 square feet
A five-year, 98,000-square-foot lease renewal with the General Services Administration at Two Ballston Plaza
A new 11-year, 63,000-square-foot lease with LaFarge North America at Two Reston Crescent
A new five-year, 45,000-square-foot lease with the General Services Administration at 1550
Wilson Blvd
Edmonton – 102,000 square feet
A five-year, 57,000-square-foot lease renewal with CGI at Canadian Western Bank Place
A ten-year renewal and expansion for 39,000 square feet with Witten Management at
Canadian Western Bank Place
New York – 63,000 square feet
A new 15-year lease for 31,000 square feet with Advent Software at the Grace building
A new 14-year lease for 26,000 square feet with Zolfo Cooper at the Grace building
Launched $5 billion real estate turnaround consortium with Brookfield Asset Management. Dedicated to investing in underperforming real estate, the consortium will invest in equity and debt in under-valued real estate companies or real estate portfolios where value can be created in a variety of ways, including financial and operational restructuring, strategic direction or sponsorship, portfolio repositioning, redevelopment or other active asset management. Brookfield Properties has the right, but not the obligation, to participate in investments in the office sector.
Raised $1.3 billion in common share equity offering and preferred share issuance. Gross proceeds from the equity offering totaled $1.0 billion and proceeds from the preferred share issuance totaled $288 million. A portion of the proceeds were used to pay down the committed revolving lines of credit at the company level and within the residential operations. Liquidity currently stands at $1.7 billion including cash, deposits and available credit.
Refinanced or extended $205 million of debt, including $105 million on the West 31st Street development site in New York and the $100 million corporate term loan. The company has completed 95% of $1 billion of financings due in 2009.
Opened Bay Adelaide Centre, the first development built to achieve a Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Gold Standard and the first major development in Toronto’s financial district in 17 years. Standing 51 stories tall, the 1.2-million-square-foot office tower adheres to strict building efficiency guidelines, including optimization of energy, light and water, and the use of local and recycled building materials. The tower is 73 percent leased.
Commenced the recladding of First Canadian Place, Toronto. Along with ownership partners, the company will thoroughly renovate Canada’s tallest office tower including a total recladding of the building’s exterior with laminated glass spandrel panels replacing the existing white marble. The project is seeking LEED Gold certification and is expected to be complete by the end of 2011.
Earned LEED Platinum certification at 1225 Connecticut Ave., Washington, D.C., the industry’s highest rating for environmental sustainability. It is the first redeveloped office building in the Eastern United States to achieve LEED Platinum certification. The building is 100% leased.
Announced early adoption of IFRS. One year ahead of the mandatory conversion date for Canadian public companies, Brookfield Properties intends to adopt International Financial Reporting Standards commencing with its interim financial statements for the three months ended March 31, 2010; those financial statements will also include comparative results for the periods commencing January 1, 2009.
OUTLOOK
“During the third quarter we have noticed a sense of optimism that the economy may be at the early stages of a recovery which has positively impacted leasing activity,” stated Ric Clark, CEO of Brookfield Properties Corporation. “As real estate markets work toward recovery, we have taken additional steps to enhance Brookfield Properties’ liquidity position in order to strengthen our balance sheet and to be poised to capitalize on opportunities that may arise.”
Funds from operations (“FFO”) was $151 million or $0.34 per diluted share for the three months ended September 30, 2009, compared with $152 million or $0.38 per diluted share during the same period in 2008. Commercial property net operating income for the third quarter of 2009 was $330 million, compared with $320 million during the third quarter of 2008.
During the third quarter, Brookfield Properties leased 693,000 square feet of space in its anaged portfolio at an average net rent of $25 per square foot, which represents a 25% improvement versus the average expiring net rent of $20 on this space in the quarter. Additionally, the company has improved its five-year lease rollover exposure by 330 basis points since the start of the year. Year-todate leasing totals 3.2 million square feet. Brookfield’s managed portfolio occupancy rate finished the quarter at 95.0%, unchanged from the previous quarter.
=> FFO in line with Analysts' expectation. Real estate market in North America starts to pick up, with fairly heathy cash position after new share & bond issued and high occupancy rate of 95%, Bilibala think Brookfield will benefit from the economy recover.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE THIRD QUARTER
Leased 693,000 square feet of space and completed 63,000 square feet of development leasing. Renewals represent 74% of the total with new leases representing the remainder. Third quarter leasing highlights include:
Toronto – 211,000 square feet
A 144,000-square-foot lease extension with the Department of Justice at Exchange Tower
Washington, DC – 154,000 square feet
A five-year, 98,000-square-foot lease renewal with the General Services Administration at Two Ballston Plaza
A new 11-year, 63,000-square-foot lease with LaFarge North America at Two Reston Crescent
A new five-year, 45,000-square-foot lease with the General Services Administration at 1550
Wilson Blvd
Edmonton – 102,000 square feet
A five-year, 57,000-square-foot lease renewal with CGI at Canadian Western Bank Place
A ten-year renewal and expansion for 39,000 square feet with Witten Management at
Canadian Western Bank Place
New York – 63,000 square feet
A new 15-year lease for 31,000 square feet with Advent Software at the Grace building
A new 14-year lease for 26,000 square feet with Zolfo Cooper at the Grace building
Launched $5 billion real estate turnaround consortium with Brookfield Asset Management. Dedicated to investing in underperforming real estate, the consortium will invest in equity and debt in under-valued real estate companies or real estate portfolios where value can be created in a variety of ways, including financial and operational restructuring, strategic direction or sponsorship, portfolio repositioning, redevelopment or other active asset management. Brookfield Properties has the right, but not the obligation, to participate in investments in the office sector.
Raised $1.3 billion in common share equity offering and preferred share issuance. Gross proceeds from the equity offering totaled $1.0 billion and proceeds from the preferred share issuance totaled $288 million. A portion of the proceeds were used to pay down the committed revolving lines of credit at the company level and within the residential operations. Liquidity currently stands at $1.7 billion including cash, deposits and available credit.
Refinanced or extended $205 million of debt, including $105 million on the West 31st Street development site in New York and the $100 million corporate term loan. The company has completed 95% of $1 billion of financings due in 2009.
Opened Bay Adelaide Centre, the first development built to achieve a Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Gold Standard and the first major development in Toronto’s financial district in 17 years. Standing 51 stories tall, the 1.2-million-square-foot office tower adheres to strict building efficiency guidelines, including optimization of energy, light and water, and the use of local and recycled building materials. The tower is 73 percent leased.
Commenced the recladding of First Canadian Place, Toronto. Along with ownership partners, the company will thoroughly renovate Canada’s tallest office tower including a total recladding of the building’s exterior with laminated glass spandrel panels replacing the existing white marble. The project is seeking LEED Gold certification and is expected to be complete by the end of 2011.
Earned LEED Platinum certification at 1225 Connecticut Ave., Washington, D.C., the industry’s highest rating for environmental sustainability. It is the first redeveloped office building in the Eastern United States to achieve LEED Platinum certification. The building is 100% leased.
Announced early adoption of IFRS. One year ahead of the mandatory conversion date for Canadian public companies, Brookfield Properties intends to adopt International Financial Reporting Standards commencing with its interim financial statements for the three months ended March 31, 2010; those financial statements will also include comparative results for the periods commencing January 1, 2009.
OUTLOOK
“During the third quarter we have noticed a sense of optimism that the economy may be at the early stages of a recovery which has positively impacted leasing activity,” stated Ric Clark, CEO of Brookfield Properties Corporation. “As real estate markets work toward recovery, we have taken additional steps to enhance Brookfield Properties’ liquidity position in order to strengthen our balance sheet and to be poised to capitalize on opportunities that may arise.”
Procter & Gamble 1q10 press release
CINCINNATI, Oct. 29, 2009 - The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) reported net
sales of $19.8 billion for the July - September quarter which exceeded the Company’s guidance.
Organic sales growth was up two percent versus a guidance range of flat to minus three percent on better than expected results across most business segments. Diluted net earnings per share
increased three percent to $1.06, above the Company’s guidance range of $0.95 to $1.00. The
Company raised its outlook for the October - December quarter and fiscal 2010 organic sales
growth citing modestly higher expectation for market growth. The Company also increased the low end of its fiscal year guidance range by $0.03 per share to reflect the higher top-line growth
projection.
=> Procter & Gamble's EPS beat Wall Street analysts' estimation by 7 cents.
“Our September quarter results give us encouragement we are making the right choices to
grow market share profitably,” said President and Chief Executive Officer Bob McDonald. “We
are investing in innovation, expanding our portfolio and improving consumer value to serve more consumers, in more parts of the world, more completely. We are driving simplification and
improving execution while leveraging scale to create cost efficiencies that help fund these
investments and accelerate growth.”
Executive Summary
• Net sales for the quarter were $19.8 billion, a decrease of six percent that was primarily due
to unfavorable foreign exchange impacts as the U.S. dollar remained above prior year levels.
The company had previously guided to a net sales decrease of seven to ten percent.
• Organic sales, which exclude the impacts of acquisitions, divestitures and foreign exchange,
increased two percent.
• Diluted net earnings per share increased three percent to $1.06 for the July - September
quarter.
• Operating margin increased 160 basis points for the quarter behind a 290 basis point
improvement in gross margin, partially offset by higher selling, general and administrative
(SG&A) expenses.
• Operating cash flow was $4.6 billion for the first fiscal quarter. Free cash flow, which is
operating cash flow less capital spending, was $4.0 billion, an all-time record and over 120
percent of net earnings excluding the gain on the sale of Actonel in Japan.
=> Procter & Gamble sucessfully boost up organic sales by 2% thanks to the price cut strategy. It is also good to see the operating margin improved. As US$ fall back, we should see better results in the coming quarters.
sales of $19.8 billion for the July - September quarter which exceeded the Company’s guidance.
Organic sales growth was up two percent versus a guidance range of flat to minus three percent on better than expected results across most business segments. Diluted net earnings per share
increased three percent to $1.06, above the Company’s guidance range of $0.95 to $1.00. The
Company raised its outlook for the October - December quarter and fiscal 2010 organic sales
growth citing modestly higher expectation for market growth. The Company also increased the low end of its fiscal year guidance range by $0.03 per share to reflect the higher top-line growth
projection.
=> Procter & Gamble's EPS beat Wall Street analysts' estimation by 7 cents.
“Our September quarter results give us encouragement we are making the right choices to
grow market share profitably,” said President and Chief Executive Officer Bob McDonald. “We
are investing in innovation, expanding our portfolio and improving consumer value to serve more consumers, in more parts of the world, more completely. We are driving simplification and
improving execution while leveraging scale to create cost efficiencies that help fund these
investments and accelerate growth.”
Executive Summary
• Net sales for the quarter were $19.8 billion, a decrease of six percent that was primarily due
to unfavorable foreign exchange impacts as the U.S. dollar remained above prior year levels.
The company had previously guided to a net sales decrease of seven to ten percent.
• Organic sales, which exclude the impacts of acquisitions, divestitures and foreign exchange,
increased two percent.
• Diluted net earnings per share increased three percent to $1.06 for the July - September
quarter.
• Operating margin increased 160 basis points for the quarter behind a 290 basis point
improvement in gross margin, partially offset by higher selling, general and administrative
(SG&A) expenses.
• Operating cash flow was $4.6 billion for the first fiscal quarter. Free cash flow, which is
operating cash flow less capital spending, was $4.0 billion, an all-time record and over 120
percent of net earnings excluding the gain on the sale of Actonel in Japan.
=> Procter & Gamble sucessfully boost up organic sales by 2% thanks to the price cut strategy. It is also good to see the operating margin improved. As US$ fall back, we should see better results in the coming quarters.
Econ data 09 week 44
USA
Overall
- 3Q09 GDP up to +3.5% from -0.7% in 2Q09 (better than expect, +3.2%)
- 3Q09 chain deflator up to +0.8% from -0.4% in 2Q09 (worse, +1.4%)
- Oct Chicago PMI up to 54.2 from 46.1 in Sep (better, 49.0)
- Oct Mich sentiment Rev up to 70.6 from 69.4 prelim (better, 70.0)
Consumer
- Oct consumer confidence down to 47.7 from 53.4 in Sep (worse, 53.5)
- Sep durable orders up to +1.0% from -2.6% in Aug (in line, +1.0%)
- Sep durable orders ex transport up to +0.9% from -0.4% in Aug (better, +0.7%)
- Sep pensonal spending down to -0.5% from +1.4% in Aug (in line, -0.5%)
House
- Aug CaseShiller home price index up to -11.32% from -13.26% in Jul (better, -11.90%)
- Sep new home sales down to 402k from 417k in Aug (worse, 440k)
Job
- 10/24 initial jobless claim 530k no change from 531k in last week (worse, 525k)
- 10/17 continuing jobless claim down to 5,797k from 5,945k in last week (better, 5,905k)
- Sep personal income down to 0.0% from +0.1% in Aug (in line, 0.0%)
Canada
- Aug GDP down 0.1% M/M, worse than expect +0.1%
10.29.2009
華創集團向華潤集團轉讓
華創集團向華潤集團轉讓其若干非核心業務，即全部紡織業務及兩個貨櫃碼頭業務的少數股東權益，另加支付現金對價港幣3,000 萬元，以從華潤集團換取一項於中國內地的華北、西北、東北及中原地區經營之連鎖大型超市業務及山東省一間啤酒廠。這項建議一旦實施，將可擴大華創集團的超市及啤酒業務，同時亦可通過出售非核心紡織業務及貨櫃碼頭業務的少數股權投資而精簡其現有業務。這一建議的集團重組代表本公司將核心消費業務，即零售、飲品、食品加工及經銷業務打造成市場領導者的發展戰略進一步深化，旨在使本公司加強專注於中國快速增長的消費市場。
=> I think this is a good deal, use its non-core business (clothing manufacture & sea port) & exchange for 75 supermarket stores and 1 beverage factory. Using low growth & cyclical business to exchange for high growth & non-cyclical business. That's great.
根據有關建議：
後，方會實行。
對價基準：
資產互換協議項下的條款乃按公平原則磋商後釐定，並已經參考有關公司基於獨立估值的資產價
值或由合約雙方判斷的價值、過往經營表現及未來前景(如下文進一步討論)。根據資產互換協
議，華創集團將獲得資產的價值總額約港幣49.37 億元，較華潤集團將獲得資產的估值總額約港
幣47.84 億元，高出約港幣1.53 億元。雙方按公平原則磋商後同意本公司將從華潤獲得折扣，並
將以現金款項港幣3,000 萬元支付有關差額。現金款項將於完成日期須予支付並會以華創集團的
內部資源悉數支付。
=> I think this is a good deal, use its non-core business (clothing manufacture & sea port) & exchange for 75 supermarket stores and 1 beverage factory. Using low growth & cyclical business to exchange for high growth & non-cyclical business. That's great.
根據有關建議：
- 華潤集團將向華創集團轉讓一項連鎖大型超市業務，旗下包括75 間在中國內地的華北、西北、東北和中原地區以「華潤萬家」名義經營的店鋪，而該等地區未來可望維持高速增長。該收購事項可讓華創集團迅速將其覆蓋範圍擴大至陝西省、甘肅省、遼寧省等新市場，並進一步擴大其在天津和北京現有市場的零售及分銷網絡；
- 華潤集團將向本公司非全資附屬公司華潤雪花轉讓位於山東省的一間啤酒廠，以配合華潤雪花於山東省的分銷網絡及產能的擴展計劃；
- 華創集團將向華潤集團轉讓全部紡織業務，而該業務被分類為本公司的非核心業務。在全球金融危機爆發下，中國製成品出口市場萎縮，該業務因而受到影響，且現正出現虧損；及
- 華創集團將向華潤集團轉讓位於香港及深圳市鹽田的兩個貨櫃碼頭業務的少數股東權益，即分別於HIT Investments Limited 及Hutchison Ports Yantian Investments Limited 的各10%少數股東權益，同時保留權利在未來分佔如下所述此等投資的利潤超過一定界限的部分及其後出售所有或部分該等投資的利潤超过一定界限的部分。
後，方會實行。
對價基準：
資產互換協議項下的條款乃按公平原則磋商後釐定，並已經參考有關公司基於獨立估值的資產價
值或由合約雙方判斷的價值、過往經營表現及未來前景(如下文進一步討論)。根據資產互換協
議，華創集團將獲得資產的價值總額約港幣49.37 億元，較華潤集團將獲得資產的估值總額約港
幣47.84 億元，高出約港幣1.53 億元。雙方按公平原則磋商後同意本公司將從華潤獲得折扣，並
將以現金款項港幣3,000 萬元支付有關差額。現金款項將於完成日期須予支付並會以華創集團的
內部資源悉數支付。
10.28.2009
10.27.2009
Rogers Communication 3q09 press release
1. Third Quarter Adjusted Operating Profit up 15% as Revenue Grows to
Over $3 Billion;
Over $3 Billion;
- better than analysts' expectations & in line with Rogers' own outlook
2. Wireless Network and Cable Operations Revenue Both up by 7% Helping
Drive Adjusted Operating Profit Growth of 22% and 8%, Respectively;
- Total wireless retail subscribers 8.4M up 8.0% from 7.7M
- Wireless ARPU $63.70 down 1.3% from $64.52
- Total tv cable subscribers 3.9M up 0.3% from 3.8M
- Total internet cable subscritbers 1.60M up 3.1% from 1.55M
- Subscribers growth thanks to bundle sales & promotion effort & looks like Rogers did fairly good during recession
3. Wireless Delivers Strong Subscriber Growth and Reduced Postpaid
Churn While Wireless Data Revenue Growth Accelerates to 46%;
- I-phone & blackberry helps Rogers data revenue boost up. Since there is a 1 to 2 years promotion discount for the new wireless data users, one should expect the revenue will grow stronger in the coming years
4. Cable Drives Continued Margin Expansion and Healthy Growth in Cash
Flow on Slower Subscriber Growth;
- Cost cutting project & outsource did helps, but can Rogers continue to do so
5. Advertising and The Shopping Channel Sales Declines at Media Begin to
Moderate While Sportsnet Delivers Double-Digit Revenue and Adjusted
Operating Profit Growth;
- Rogers expect the revenue to go down 4 to 10% in future. At least, 3q results is better than its own outlook
6. $592 Million of Cash Returned to Shareholders during Quarter with
Share Buybacks and Dividends
- Kind of irrelevant to estimation
Bilibala thinks Rogers stock price is at a discount and a more reasonable price will be in $35.0-$37.0 range.
China Life 3q09 results
9M 2009 results highlights & Bilibala's comments (in RMB):
(Please note all items below are based on China Accounting Standard instead of Hong Kong Accounting Standard, therefore, its 1q09 & 3q09 results are not comparable with its interm nor annual results.)
(Please note all items below are based on China Accounting Standard instead of Hong Kong Accounting Standard, therefore, its 1q09 & 3q09 results are not comparable with its interm nor annual results.)
1. Annualized premium $237.3B down 4.5% from $248.6B & Premium earned $287.2B up 0.8% from $284.9B
- In 2009, China Life switch its gear from single premium/short term traditional product/universal life product towards traditional product with longer terms, premium lower because new products require time on training and promotion before the sales to rise
- New products has a higher value of new business according to 2q09 press release
- 2008 premium rise 57% compare to 2007, lots of analysts at that time think the premium will not be able to substain, but looks like the life insurance market in China is huge enough
2. Investment income $49.3B up 8.8% from $45.3B and fair value & FX gains/losses $1.2B up from ($9B)
- Investment income up mainly due to asset value go up by 14.0% enough to offset the interest rate drop
- Gains consistent with the China equity market rebound
4. Surrenders $7.6B down 10.0% from $8.4B & Claims paid $12.4B down 15.1% from $14.7B
- If the mortality rate trend continue as life expectancy in China continue to improve, China Life's profit trend will improve because poor life expectancy & high mortality rate has already been priced in the previous and existing policies.
- Surrenders drop may or may not be a good sight, lesser lapse may hurt pricing, at the same time, if it is due maturity of those short term traditional product, then that's good. But we can't tell based on the press release
5. Impairment losses $0.0B down 98% from $3.1B
- Great
6. Net profit $6.0B up 155.4% from $2.4B & EPS $0.70 up 52.2% from $0.46
- In line with Bilibala's expectation
7. Total comprehensive gains $19.8B up from ($26.0B) & Shareholders' equity $149.8B up 10.2% from $135.9B
- In line with Bilibala's expectation
- Stock price above HK$38.0 or US$73.0, Bilibala thinks the price has already reflected all the rebounds, and back to normal
- Future price growth will rely on business growth, one should expect China Life's price will still rise +/- 15% per year (depends on how China equity market & interest rate), but it won't be as dramatic as the past 9 months
10.25.2009
China Mobile 3q09 press release
The unaudited financial data of the Group for the first three quarters of 2009 reflected:
. Operating revenue reached RMB326.977 billion, up by 8.9% over the same period of last year
. EBITDA of RMB167.739 billion, up by 5.5% over the same period of last year
. Profit attributable to shareholders of RMB83.935 billion, up by 1.8% over the same period of
last year
=> 8.9% up in revenue, in line with expectation. China Mobile needs to rely on value added service and 3G as the future revenue growth.
In the first three quarters of 2009, although China’s macro-economy is stabilizing and continues to grow, the impact of the global financial crisis on economy still persists and future development of the economy remains uncertain, which, together with the increasing penetration rate of mobile
telecommunications and the changes in competition environment of the telecommunications industry, have posed challenges to the development of the Group’s business. However, through effective management and the efforts of all its employees, the Group leveraged on its competitive advantages, overcame various challenges and continued to maintain favorable growth in its financial results. The Group’s operating revenue reached RMB326.977 billion, representing an increase of 8.9% compared to the same period of last year. EBITDA reached RMB167.739 billion, representing an increase of 5.5% compared to the same period of last year. Profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB83.935 billion, representing an increase of 1.8% compared to the same period of last year. Margin of profit attributable to shareholders maintained at a relatively high level of 25.7%.
=> promotion cost & discount on 3G phone did reduce China Mobile's EBITDA margin & net margin, but i think it is still at a reasonable level, still above 50%.
The increasing penetration rate of mobile telecommunications, the changes in competition environment of the telecommunications industry and the uncertainties relating to macro-economy in the future will change the industry structure of China’s telecommunications industry. Despite the challenges and adversities it faced, the Group continued to sustain healthy business development in the first three quarters of 2009. The Group’s customer growth showed signs of slowing down as a result of the negative impact of the slow down in macro-economic development on the demand for telecommunications services, the increasing penetration rate of mobile telecommunications which lessens potential growth in the number of new customers, as well as the restructuring of the industry which intensified competition. Nevertheless, the Group continues its market leadership with the average monthly net additional customers for the first three quarters reaching 5.68 million. The Group’s customer base was 508.37 million as at 30 September 2009. However, as the new customers are mainly low-usage customers and new tariffs sales and marketing scheme is gradually rolling out, ARPU and average revenue per minute of usage recorded a decrease, whilst the voice usage volume was stimulated. Total voice usage volume for the first three quarters of 2009 increased by 19.5% compared to the same period of last year. Value-added business also continued its favorable growth and mature
businesses sustained growth despite already having reached a sizeable scale. SMS usage volume
increased by 12.9% compared to the same period of last year. Meanwhile, the development of other data businesses also maintained favorable growth. The favorable growth in customer base and voice usage volume and the development of value-added business resulted in an increase of 8.9% in operating revenue in the first three quarters. The Group will continue to increase its investments in sales channels, customer service, network optimization, support system and R&D in order to enhance the Group’s core competitiveness under the new competitive landscape. Furthermore, the Group will strive to maintain a stable growth in its profitability through adhering to its refined cost management and by leveraging economies of scale.
=> RM$75 ARPU, a bit lower than Bilibala's expectation
To meet new challenges and opportunities, the Group will build on its strong foundation and
comprehensive strengths and leverage its existing competitive advantages so as to adapt rapidly to changes in the business environment and the competitive landscape, and to sustain its favorable business development and financial growth in order to continuously create value for its shareholders.
The Board wishes to remind investors that the above key performance indicators are based on the Group’s unaudited management accounts. Investors are cautioned not to unduly rely on such data.
. Operating revenue reached RMB326.977 billion, up by 8.9% over the same period of last year
. EBITDA of RMB167.739 billion, up by 5.5% over the same period of last year
. Profit attributable to shareholders of RMB83.935 billion, up by 1.8% over the same period of
last year
=> 8.9% up in revenue, in line with expectation. China Mobile needs to rely on value added service and 3G as the future revenue growth.
In the first three quarters of 2009, although China’s macro-economy is stabilizing and continues to grow, the impact of the global financial crisis on economy still persists and future development of the economy remains uncertain, which, together with the increasing penetration rate of mobile
telecommunications and the changes in competition environment of the telecommunications industry, have posed challenges to the development of the Group’s business. However, through effective management and the efforts of all its employees, the Group leveraged on its competitive advantages, overcame various challenges and continued to maintain favorable growth in its financial results. The Group’s operating revenue reached RMB326.977 billion, representing an increase of 8.9% compared to the same period of last year. EBITDA reached RMB167.739 billion, representing an increase of 5.5% compared to the same period of last year. Profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB83.935 billion, representing an increase of 1.8% compared to the same period of last year. Margin of profit attributable to shareholders maintained at a relatively high level of 25.7%.
=> promotion cost & discount on 3G phone did reduce China Mobile's EBITDA margin & net margin, but i think it is still at a reasonable level, still above 50%.
The increasing penetration rate of mobile telecommunications, the changes in competition environment of the telecommunications industry and the uncertainties relating to macro-economy in the future will change the industry structure of China’s telecommunications industry. Despite the challenges and adversities it faced, the Group continued to sustain healthy business development in the first three quarters of 2009. The Group’s customer growth showed signs of slowing down as a result of the negative impact of the slow down in macro-economic development on the demand for telecommunications services, the increasing penetration rate of mobile telecommunications which lessens potential growth in the number of new customers, as well as the restructuring of the industry which intensified competition. Nevertheless, the Group continues its market leadership with the average monthly net additional customers for the first three quarters reaching 5.68 million. The Group’s customer base was 508.37 million as at 30 September 2009. However, as the new customers are mainly low-usage customers and new tariffs sales and marketing scheme is gradually rolling out, ARPU and average revenue per minute of usage recorded a decrease, whilst the voice usage volume was stimulated. Total voice usage volume for the first three quarters of 2009 increased by 19.5% compared to the same period of last year. Value-added business also continued its favorable growth and mature
businesses sustained growth despite already having reached a sizeable scale. SMS usage volume
increased by 12.9% compared to the same period of last year. Meanwhile, the development of other data businesses also maintained favorable growth. The favorable growth in customer base and voice usage volume and the development of value-added business resulted in an increase of 8.9% in operating revenue in the first three quarters. The Group will continue to increase its investments in sales channels, customer service, network optimization, support system and R&D in order to enhance the Group’s core competitiveness under the new competitive landscape. Furthermore, the Group will strive to maintain a stable growth in its profitability through adhering to its refined cost management and by leveraging economies of scale.
=> RM$75 ARPU, a bit lower than Bilibala's expectation
To meet new challenges and opportunities, the Group will build on its strong foundation and
comprehensive strengths and leverage its existing competitive advantages so as to adapt rapidly to changes in the business environment and the competitive landscape, and to sustain its favorable business development and financial growth in order to continuously create value for its shareholders.
The Board wishes to remind investors that the above key performance indicators are based on the Group’s unaudited management accounts. Investors are cautioned not to unduly rely on such data.
China Construction Bank 3q09 press release
As at 30 September 2009, total assets of the Group reached RMB9,353,972 million, an
increase of RMB1,798,520 million or 23.80% over the end of last year. Total liabilities reached
RMB8,816,947 million, an increase of RMB1,729,057 million or 24.39% over the end of last
year.
=> loan growth slow down in 3q but rise significantly compare to last year at the same time consistent with deposit growth.
Net loans and advances to customers reached RMB4,563,208 million, an increase of
RMB879,633 million or 23.88% over the end of last year. Loans granted to infrastructure
sectors increased by 27.47% to RMB1,514,915 million over the end of last year. Deposits from
customers reached RMB7,791,445 million, an increase of RMB1,415,530 million or 22.20%
over the end of last year.
Total equity was RMB537,025 million, an increase of RMB69,463 million or 14.86% over the
end of last year. Capital adequacy ratio decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 12.11%; core
capital adequacy ratio decreased by 0.60 percentage points to 9.57% compared to the end of last
year.
=> Book value rise to RM$2.30 (or HK#2.60), price to book value rise to 2.7. A bit high in short term, but I think 3.0 times is still reasonable. Finally close to my fair value price I mentioned about in March.
Compared to the end of last year, the non-performing loans decreased by RMB10,200 million
to RMB73,682 million in accordance with the five-category classification standard; the nonperforming loan ratio was 1.57%, down by 0.64 percentage points; the ratio of allowances to
non-performing loans was 161.08%, up by 29.50 percentage points.
=> non-performance loans down, good!!! Allowance is a future projection, but I think bad debt ratio in China is at a reasonable level.
The carrying amount of the US sub-prime mortgage loan backed securities held by the Group
was US$109 million, after allowances for impairment losses of US$726 million. The carrying
amount of the Alt-A bonds held by the Group was US$182 million, and the allowances for
impairment losses on such securities were US$264 million.
=> immaterial
For the nine months ended 30 September 2009, net profit of the Group was RMB86,162
million, of which the net profi t attributable to equity shareholders of the Bank was RMB86,119
million, up 2.25% and 2.24% respectively over the same period last year. Annualised return on
average assets was 1.36%, and annualised return on average equity was 22.78%.
The net interest income was RMB155,580 million, down by 7.49% over the same period last
year. Net interest spread was 2.30% and the net interest margin was 2.41%, down by 0.87
percentage points and 0.89 percentage points respectively over the same period last year.
Net fee and commission income reached RMB35,763 million, an increase of 20.94% over the
same period last year. Cost-to-income ratio was 35.55%, which remained at a low level.
The income tax was RMB25,442 million, up by 4.09% over the same period last year, and the
effective income tax rate was 22.80%.
=> net margin down from 2.41% to 2.30%, in line with my expectation, looks good.
increase of RMB1,798,520 million or 23.80% over the end of last year. Total liabilities reached
RMB8,816,947 million, an increase of RMB1,729,057 million or 24.39% over the end of last
year.
=> loan growth slow down in 3q but rise significantly compare to last year at the same time consistent with deposit growth.
Net loans and advances to customers reached RMB4,563,208 million, an increase of
RMB879,633 million or 23.88% over the end of last year. Loans granted to infrastructure
sectors increased by 27.47% to RMB1,514,915 million over the end of last year. Deposits from
customers reached RMB7,791,445 million, an increase of RMB1,415,530 million or 22.20%
over the end of last year.
Total equity was RMB537,025 million, an increase of RMB69,463 million or 14.86% over the
end of last year. Capital adequacy ratio decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 12.11%; core
capital adequacy ratio decreased by 0.60 percentage points to 9.57% compared to the end of last
year.
=> Book value rise to RM$2.30 (or HK#2.60), price to book value rise to 2.7. A bit high in short term, but I think 3.0 times is still reasonable. Finally close to my fair value price I mentioned about in March.
Compared to the end of last year, the non-performing loans decreased by RMB10,200 million
to RMB73,682 million in accordance with the five-category classification standard; the nonperforming loan ratio was 1.57%, down by 0.64 percentage points; the ratio of allowances to
non-performing loans was 161.08%, up by 29.50 percentage points.
=> non-performance loans down, good!!! Allowance is a future projection, but I think bad debt ratio in China is at a reasonable level.
The carrying amount of the US sub-prime mortgage loan backed securities held by the Group
was US$109 million, after allowances for impairment losses of US$726 million. The carrying
amount of the Alt-A bonds held by the Group was US$182 million, and the allowances for
impairment losses on such securities were US$264 million.
=> immaterial
For the nine months ended 30 September 2009, net profit of the Group was RMB86,162
million, of which the net profi t attributable to equity shareholders of the Bank was RMB86,119
million, up 2.25% and 2.24% respectively over the same period last year. Annualised return on
average assets was 1.36%, and annualised return on average equity was 22.78%.
The net interest income was RMB155,580 million, down by 7.49% over the same period last
year. Net interest spread was 2.30% and the net interest margin was 2.41%, down by 0.87
percentage points and 0.89 percentage points respectively over the same period last year.
Net fee and commission income reached RMB35,763 million, an increase of 20.94% over the
same period last year. Cost-to-income ratio was 35.55%, which remained at a low level.
The income tax was RMB25,442 million, up by 4.09% over the same period last year, and the
effective income tax rate was 22.80%.
=> net margin down from 2.41% to 2.30%, in line with my expectation, looks good.
10.23.2009
Econ data 09 week 43
USA
Overall
Overall
- Sep leading indicators up to +1.0% from +0.4% in Aug (better than expect, +0.8%) reach its 2 years high sight the economic recovery is in good pace
- Sep PPI down to -0.6% from +1.7% in Aug (worse, 0.0%) mainly due to "cash for cunkers", so is ok
- Sep PPI down to -0.1% from +0.2% in Aug (worse, 0.1%)
- n/a
- Sep existing home sales up to 5.57M from 5.09M in Aug (better, 5.35M)
- Sep building permits down sightly to 573k from 580k in Aug (worse, 595k)
- Sep housing starts up to 590k from 587k in Aug (worse, 610k)
- Aug FHFA housing price index down -0.3% from +0.3% in Jul (worse, +0.3%)
- It indicate a slower than expect recover, on the other hand is good
- 10/17 initial jobless claim up to 531k from 520k (worse, 515k)
- 10/10 continuing jobless claim down to 5,923k from 6,021k (better, 5,970k)
- Continuing claims down by 98k below 6M, good sight, but we can only confirm the job market looks ok if it drop below 5M
- Sep leading indicator down to + 1.1% M/M from +1.2% M/M in Aug
- Aug retail sales up to +0.8% M/M from -0.5% M/M in Aug
- Aug retail sales ex-auto up to +0.5% M/M from -0.7% M/M in Aug
- Aug wholesale sales down t0 -1.4% M/M from +2.6% M/M in Jul
China
- 3q09 GDP up +8.9% Y/Y, beyond analysts expectation & top government's objective
天下第一仓 拨 小心贵股价 东尼 10月22日
如一首英文童謠，牛仔跳過了月亮（ The cow jumbed over the moon），道瓊斯工業指數終於再次升穿一萬點。雖然大部分美國經濟學權威認為股市應該跟隨，而不是領先經濟，無論如何，美股正追趕跑在前頭的各國股市。恒生指數以此藉口升穿二萬二千點，接近○七年六月水平，當時我警告讀者股市太貴，儘管隨後四個月，恒指再勁升三成至三萬二千點，惟我仍然認為二萬二千點是升過龍。道指自今年低位的六千五百點升近五成，雖然按揭問題數之不盡，失業率也節節上升；惟大家相信代價高昂的救市政策必有成效，而且公司業績，亦不如預期般差勁。恒指自去年十月低位的一萬零六百點上升一倍，比美股跑快半年。
=> I think the current gobal equity markets are at a reasonable level. 恒指 looks reasonable at 25,000 in 2007, given 50% of corporations has headoffice in Mainland China base and their 2008 EPS 30%. If the growth in 2009 to 2014 are say 10%. 恒指's reasonable level should rise from 25,000 to 38,000.
這些市場均受低利率及資金氾濫所刺激，就算美國，雖然窮者越窮，但也有不少富人在市況不明時儲下大筆現金。這情況在香港的樓市成交中顯而易見，先有尖沙咀新盤的一房單位錄得天價成交，後有半山干德道一幢樓高八十八層的物業，呎價高達七萬元。這情況非常恐怖，繼續下去的話，跌市將無可避免。儘管指數只是一個平均數，以其衡量整個股市並不公平，但仍有指標作用。
=> Bilibala agree the house price rise too high on luxucy condo, but others are still 25% lower than 1997 level.
之前，我曾為中資股偏高的股價而感到困擾，如國壽（ 2628），其股價由○六年的十元升至○七年達五十元，現時股價回落至三十六元，我仍然警惕。現時，其總市值約一萬億元，但去年盈利僅得二百四十億元，若能回復至○七年四百一十五億元的盈利，現股價或許合理。但其○七年盈利有部分來自出售投資組合的收益，就算未來它的一千五百億元股票組合仍能提供資本盈利，相信也難以再有當時的巨額收入。
國壽太貴而且，國壽的資產淨值約二千億元人民幣，今年上半年賺一百八十億元人民幣，全年應賺三百五十億元人民幣。其一萬億元的市值，代表五倍資產淨值，三十倍市盈率，我認為相當貴。
=> Um.....Bilibala agree 4.6 times price over book ratio is a bit high. As of Jun 30, 09, China Life's book value is HK$231B (or RM$203.8B) while its market value is HK$1,070B (as of Oct 23, 09).
=> On the other hand, it is important to analysis underwriting income and investment income separately, but you cannot treat investment income nor unrealized gains/losses as anormal income.
另一隻傳統愛股中鋁，擁有中國鋁業市場的五成佔有率。我認為無止境的需求會令市場繼續增長，中鋁的龍頭地位有優勢，但這是一間很波動的公司，盈利受鋁價影響。以每股九元計算，市值約一千二百億元，公司去年僅能收支平衡，但○六及○七年，盈利卻高達一百一十五億元人民幣。○七年十月，中鋁的股價曾颷升至二十四元，之後急瀉至三元，所以九元好像不算太貴，但實質已從低位升了兩倍。而且，中鋁今年上半年蝕三十五億元人民幣，故我不認為其全年盈利能超過三十億元人民幣。作為長線投資，現價是可以的，想賺快錢的話則未免太勇。
在股市直逼巔峰時，我對地產股的股價也非常懷疑，其中一隻嚇倒我的是富力地產（ 2777），它的股價超越二十元直衝到四十元，雖然其○七年的每股盈利高達一元七角五仙，但每股資產淨值僅得五元。現時它仍有薄利，不過就算以現股價十四元二角五仙，市值四百五十億元，我也不打算買入，惟當其跌至三元時，我的確曾經心動。
=> I think the current gobal equity markets are at a reasonable level. 恒指 looks reasonable at 25,000 in 2007, given 50% of corporations has headoffice in Mainland China base and their 2008 EPS 30%. If the growth in 2009 to 2014 are say 10%. 恒指's reasonable level should rise from 25,000 to 38,000.
這些市場均受低利率及資金氾濫所刺激，就算美國，雖然窮者越窮，但也有不少富人在市況不明時儲下大筆現金。這情況在香港的樓市成交中顯而易見，先有尖沙咀新盤的一房單位錄得天價成交，後有半山干德道一幢樓高八十八層的物業，呎價高達七萬元。這情況非常恐怖，繼續下去的話，跌市將無可避免。儘管指數只是一個平均數，以其衡量整個股市並不公平，但仍有指標作用。
=> Bilibala agree the house price rise too high on luxucy condo, but others are still 25% lower than 1997 level.
之前，我曾為中資股偏高的股價而感到困擾，如國壽（ 2628），其股價由○六年的十元升至○七年達五十元，現時股價回落至三十六元，我仍然警惕。現時，其總市值約一萬億元，但去年盈利僅得二百四十億元，若能回復至○七年四百一十五億元的盈利，現股價或許合理。但其○七年盈利有部分來自出售投資組合的收益，就算未來它的一千五百億元股票組合仍能提供資本盈利，相信也難以再有當時的巨額收入。
國壽太貴而且，國壽的資產淨值約二千億元人民幣，今年上半年賺一百八十億元人民幣，全年應賺三百五十億元人民幣。其一萬億元的市值，代表五倍資產淨值，三十倍市盈率，我認為相當貴。
=> Um.....Bilibala agree 4.6 times price over book ratio is a bit high. As of Jun 30, 09, China Life's book value is HK$231B (or RM$203.8B) while its market value is HK$1,070B (as of Oct 23, 09).
=> On the other hand, it is important to analysis underwriting income and investment income separately, but you cannot treat investment income nor unrealized gains/losses as anormal income.
另一隻傳統愛股中鋁，擁有中國鋁業市場的五成佔有率。我認為無止境的需求會令市場繼續增長，中鋁的龍頭地位有優勢，但這是一間很波動的公司，盈利受鋁價影響。以每股九元計算，市值約一千二百億元，公司去年僅能收支平衡，但○六及○七年，盈利卻高達一百一十五億元人民幣。○七年十月，中鋁的股價曾颷升至二十四元，之後急瀉至三元，所以九元好像不算太貴，但實質已從低位升了兩倍。而且，中鋁今年上半年蝕三十五億元人民幣，故我不認為其全年盈利能超過三十億元人民幣。作為長線投資，現價是可以的，想賺快錢的話則未免太勇。
在股市直逼巔峰時，我對地產股的股價也非常懷疑，其中一隻嚇倒我的是富力地產（ 2777），它的股價超越二十元直衝到四十元，雖然其○七年的每股盈利高達一元七角五仙，但每股資產淨值僅得五元。現時它仍有薄利，不過就算以現股價十四元二角五仙，市值四百五十億元，我也不打算買入，惟當其跌至三元時，我的確曾經心動。
China Life 09 premium
HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--China Life Insurance Co. (LFC), the country's biggest life insurer in terms of premiums, said in a statement Thursday its unaudited premium income for the January-September period was CNY237.3 billion.
The Hong Kong-listed insurer didn't provide a year-earlier figure for comparison, but last year it reported January-September premium income of CNY248.6 billion.
-By Lorraine Luk, Dow Jones Newswires; 852-2802-7002; lorraine.luk@dowjones.com
=> YTD premium down 4.6%, still in line with Bilibala's expectation. What drive an insurance company to be profitable is the value of new business (VNB) instead of merely premiums. According to 2q09 result, China Life's VNB rise significantly, let's see whether the trend will continue this quarter. If so, China Life's slightly drop in premium is not a concern, given the fact that its premium rise 57% on 9M 2008 compare to same period in 2007.
The Hong Kong-listed insurer didn't provide a year-earlier figure for comparison, but last year it reported January-September premium income of CNY248.6 billion.
-By Lorraine Luk, Dow Jones Newswires; 852-2802-7002; lorraine.luk@dowjones.com
=> YTD premium down 4.6%, still in line with Bilibala's expectation. What drive an insurance company to be profitable is the value of new business (VNB) instead of merely premiums. According to 2q09 result, China Life's VNB rise significantly, let's see whether the trend will continue this quarter. If so, China Life's slightly drop in premium is not a concern, given the fact that its premium rise 57% on 9M 2008 compare to same period in 2007.
McDonald's 3q09 press release
McDonald's Third Quarter Earnings Rise on Strong Global Results
OAK BROOK, Ill., Oct 22, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- McDonald's Corporation today announced strong results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2009, fueled by positive comparable sales in every area of the world. In constant currencies, the Company posted higher revenues, operating income and earnings per share compared with the prior year.
"Alignment behind McDonald's long-term business strategy, the Plan to Win, is clear as our growth continues to be a systemwide effort with each area of the world contributing," said McDonald's Chief Executive Officer, Jim Skinner. "McDonald's global results demonstrate the resilience of our strategies and our ability to execute successfully."
=> yea, the growth is amazing, for all this years
McDonald's reported the following third quarter highlights:
-- Global comparable sales increased 3.8% with the U.S. up 2.5%, Europe up 5.8% and Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa up 2.2%
-- Consolidated operating income increased 6% (11% in constant currencies) over the prior year
-- Earnings per share of $1.15, a 10% increase (14% in constant currencies) over the prior year
-- The quarterly cash dividend increased 10% to $0.55 per share - the equivalent of $2.20 per share annually - effective fourth quarter 2009
-- Approximately $1.3 billion returned to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends
=> great!! Cash dividend up is another plus
Jim Skinner continued, "The consistent strength of McDonald's business is the result of our commitment to the customer. We are keeping the McDonald's brand in demand and growing market share around the world by serving great tasting food at an outstanding value in a way that's convenient to today's consumers."
For the quarter, the U.S. generated solid comparable sales and drove an operating income increase of 6%. The ongoing appeal of McDonald's core menu along with favorable consumer response to the new premium Angus Third Pounders and McCafe espresso-based coffees fueled the U.S. results.
McDonald's Europe delivered strong third quarter comparable sales driving a 10% increase in operating income in constant currencies. Locally relevant premium products and promotions combined with compelling value drove the segment's quarterly performance.
In Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa (APMEA), operating income for the quarter rose 21% in constant currencies with Australia and China leading the segment. Emphasis on convenience, value, operations excellence and core menu are enhancing consumer appeal and driving growth across APMEA.
Jim Skinner concluded, "We begin the fourth quarter from a position of strength, and I am confident that our focus on the customer and commitment to financial discipline will continue to deliver long-term profitable growth for our System and our shareholders. For October, despite a declining informal eating out market around the world, we expect consolidated comparable sales to remain positive."
In addition, the following items impacted the comparison of growth in diluted earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 compared with 2008. In the aggregate, these items negatively impacted the comparison by 1 percentage point (2 percentage points in constant currencies):
For the nine months ended September 30, 2009:
- $0.05 per share after tax gain related to the sale of the Company's minority interest in Redbox Automated Retail, LLC
For the nine months ended September 30, 2008:
- $0.09 per share after tax gain on the sale of the Company's minority interest in Pret A Manger
OAK BROOK, Ill., Oct 22, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- McDonald's Corporation today announced strong results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2009, fueled by positive comparable sales in every area of the world. In constant currencies, the Company posted higher revenues, operating income and earnings per share compared with the prior year.
"Alignment behind McDonald's long-term business strategy, the Plan to Win, is clear as our growth continues to be a systemwide effort with each area of the world contributing," said McDonald's Chief Executive Officer, Jim Skinner. "McDonald's global results demonstrate the resilience of our strategies and our ability to execute successfully."
=> yea, the growth is amazing, for all this years
McDonald's reported the following third quarter highlights:
-- Global comparable sales increased 3.8% with the U.S. up 2.5%, Europe up 5.8% and Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa up 2.2%
-- Consolidated operating income increased 6% (11% in constant currencies) over the prior year
-- Earnings per share of $1.15, a 10% increase (14% in constant currencies) over the prior year
-- The quarterly cash dividend increased 10% to $0.55 per share - the equivalent of $2.20 per share annually - effective fourth quarter 2009
-- Approximately $1.3 billion returned to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends
=> great!! Cash dividend up is another plus
Jim Skinner continued, "The consistent strength of McDonald's business is the result of our commitment to the customer. We are keeping the McDonald's brand in demand and growing market share around the world by serving great tasting food at an outstanding value in a way that's convenient to today's consumers."
For the quarter, the U.S. generated solid comparable sales and drove an operating income increase of 6%. The ongoing appeal of McDonald's core menu along with favorable consumer response to the new premium Angus Third Pounders and McCafe espresso-based coffees fueled the U.S. results.
McDonald's Europe delivered strong third quarter comparable sales driving a 10% increase in operating income in constant currencies. Locally relevant premium products and promotions combined with compelling value drove the segment's quarterly performance.
In Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa (APMEA), operating income for the quarter rose 21% in constant currencies with Australia and China leading the segment. Emphasis on convenience, value, operations excellence and core menu are enhancing consumer appeal and driving growth across APMEA.
Jim Skinner concluded, "We begin the fourth quarter from a position of strength, and I am confident that our focus on the customer and commitment to financial discipline will continue to deliver long-term profitable growth for our System and our shareholders. For October, despite a declining informal eating out market around the world, we expect consolidated comparable sales to remain positive."
In addition, the following items impacted the comparison of growth in diluted earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 compared with 2008. In the aggregate, these items negatively impacted the comparison by 1 percentage point (2 percentage points in constant currencies):
For the nine months ended September 30, 2009:
- $0.05 per share after tax gain related to the sale of the Company's minority interest in Redbox Automated Retail, LLC
For the nine months ended September 30, 2008:
- $0.09 per share after tax gain on the sale of the Company's minority interest in Pret A Manger
CN Railway 3q09 press release
CN reports Q3-2009 net income of C$461 million, or C$0.97 per diluted share, compared with year-earlier net income of C$552 million, or C$1.16 per diluted share
MONTREAL, Oct. 20, 2009 — CN (TSX: CNR)(NYSE: CNI) today reported its financial
and operating results for the third quarter ended Sept. 30, 2009.
Third-quarter 2009 highlights
• Net income declined to C$461 million, or C$0.97 per diluted share, from yearearlier net income of C$552 million, or C$1.16 per diluted share, largely as a result of lower freight volumes stemming from depressed North American and global economies.
• Revenues declined 18 per cent to C$1,845 million, carloads declined 15 per cent to 1,032 thousand, and revenue ton-miles declined 11 per cent.
• Operating expenses declined 18 per cent to C$1,156 million, reflecting lower yearover-year fuel prices and cost-containment measures in response to lower traffic.
• Operating income declined 18 per cent to C$689 million, while the operating ratio was essentially flat at 62.7 per cent.
• Nine-month 2009 free cash flow increased to C$657 million from C$483 million generated during the comparable period of 2008. (1)
=> 18% down, down more than my expectation
Net income for the third quarter of 2009 and third quarter of 2008 included deferred income tax recoveries of C$15 million, or C$0.03 per diluted share, and C$41 million, or C$0.09 per diluted share, respectively. The recoveries in both years resulted from the resolution of various income tax matters and adjustments related to tax filings of prior years. Excluding these items, adjusted third-quarter 2009 net income was C$446 million, or C$0.94 per diluted share, compared with year-earlier adjusted net income of C$511 million, or C$1.07 per diluted share, a reduction of 12 per cent in diluted earnings per share. (1)
The year-over-year increase in the U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar affected the
conversion of CN’s U.S.-dollar-denominated revenues and expenses, increasing thirdquarter
2009 net income by approximately C$15 million, or C$0.03 per diluted share.
=> FX contribute about 3% of the fall
E. Hunter Harrison, president and chief executive officer, said: “The third quarter of 2009 was another challenging one for CN, with significant weakness across markets affecting our freight volumes. Revenue ton-miles for the quarter declined 11 per cent, but that was a sequential improvement over the 14 per cent RTM reduction in the second quarter of this year.
“The CN team continued to focus on cost containment and productivity improvements during Q3-2009. And the team delivered. We kept the operating ratio essentially flat at 62.7 per cent and made solid operational gains -- system train speeds improved again, rising 11 per cent year-over-year, while the average dwell time for freight cars in our classification yards across the railroad declined by nine per cent from a year earlier. Equally important, our accident rate improved by eight per cent over the same period of 2008.
“It appears that several of our markets may have hit bottom. Our productivity gains during 2009 position us well for the eventual recovery in traffic.”
=> i agree we've hit the bottom and starting with a slow recover now, but at the same time, winter is coming. Usually, Railway's profits as well as stock price get hurt during the snowing days.
Third-quarter 2009 revenues, traffic volumes and expenses
The reduction in third-quarter 2009 revenues largely resulted from significantly lower freight volumes in almost all markets as a result of prevailing economic conditions in the North American and global economies; and the impact of a lower fuel surcharge due to year-over-year decreases in applicable fuel prices, as well as lower freight volumes. Partly offsetting these factors were the positive translation impact of the weaker Canadian dollar on U.S.-dollar-denominated revenues and freight rate increases. All commodity groups saw revenue declines – metals and minerals (32 per cent), automotive (25 per cent), forest products (24 per cent), intermodal (20 per cent), petroleum and chemicals (11 per cent), coal (9 per cent), and grain and fertilizers (9 per cent).
=> Demand fall in all segments. It helps us to understand how worse the economy is in the past 6 months. On the other hand, railway industry is 3-6 months ahead of the the overall economy because they are the one who help to transport inventory stocks, not sales.
Rail freight revenue per revenue ton-mile, a measurement of yield defined as revenue earned on the movement of a ton of freight over one mile, decreased by nine per cent in the third quarter, largely due to the impact of a lower fuel surcharge and an increase in the average length of haul. These factors were partly offset by the positive translation impact of the weaker Canadian dollar and freight rate increases.
The 18 per cent decline in operating expenses was primarily due to lower fuel costs, reduced expenses for purchased services and material, and lower casualty and other expenses. These factors were partially offset by the negative translation impact of the weaker Canadian dollar on U.S.-dollar-denominated expenses.
(1) Please see discussion and reconciliation of non-GAAP adjusted performance measures in the attached supplementary schedule, Non-GAAP Measures.
MONTREAL, Oct. 20, 2009 — CN (TSX: CNR)(NYSE: CNI) today reported its financial
and operating results for the third quarter ended Sept. 30, 2009.
Third-quarter 2009 highlights
• Net income declined to C$461 million, or C$0.97 per diluted share, from yearearlier net income of C$552 million, or C$1.16 per diluted share, largely as a result of lower freight volumes stemming from depressed North American and global economies.
• Revenues declined 18 per cent to C$1,845 million, carloads declined 15 per cent to 1,032 thousand, and revenue ton-miles declined 11 per cent.
• Operating expenses declined 18 per cent to C$1,156 million, reflecting lower yearover-year fuel prices and cost-containment measures in response to lower traffic.
• Operating income declined 18 per cent to C$689 million, while the operating ratio was essentially flat at 62.7 per cent.
• Nine-month 2009 free cash flow increased to C$657 million from C$483 million generated during the comparable period of 2008. (1)
=> 18% down, down more than my expectation
Net income for the third quarter of 2009 and third quarter of 2008 included deferred income tax recoveries of C$15 million, or C$0.03 per diluted share, and C$41 million, or C$0.09 per diluted share, respectively. The recoveries in both years resulted from the resolution of various income tax matters and adjustments related to tax filings of prior years. Excluding these items, adjusted third-quarter 2009 net income was C$446 million, or C$0.94 per diluted share, compared with year-earlier adjusted net income of C$511 million, or C$1.07 per diluted share, a reduction of 12 per cent in diluted earnings per share. (1)
The year-over-year increase in the U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar affected the
conversion of CN’s U.S.-dollar-denominated revenues and expenses, increasing thirdquarter
2009 net income by approximately C$15 million, or C$0.03 per diluted share.
=> FX contribute about 3% of the fall
E. Hunter Harrison, president and chief executive officer, said: “The third quarter of 2009 was another challenging one for CN, with significant weakness across markets affecting our freight volumes. Revenue ton-miles for the quarter declined 11 per cent, but that was a sequential improvement over the 14 per cent RTM reduction in the second quarter of this year.
“The CN team continued to focus on cost containment and productivity improvements during Q3-2009. And the team delivered. We kept the operating ratio essentially flat at 62.7 per cent and made solid operational gains -- system train speeds improved again, rising 11 per cent year-over-year, while the average dwell time for freight cars in our classification yards across the railroad declined by nine per cent from a year earlier. Equally important, our accident rate improved by eight per cent over the same period of 2008.
“It appears that several of our markets may have hit bottom. Our productivity gains during 2009 position us well for the eventual recovery in traffic.”
=> i agree we've hit the bottom and starting with a slow recover now, but at the same time, winter is coming. Usually, Railway's profits as well as stock price get hurt during the snowing days.
Third-quarter 2009 revenues, traffic volumes and expenses
The reduction in third-quarter 2009 revenues largely resulted from significantly lower freight volumes in almost all markets as a result of prevailing economic conditions in the North American and global economies; and the impact of a lower fuel surcharge due to year-over-year decreases in applicable fuel prices, as well as lower freight volumes. Partly offsetting these factors were the positive translation impact of the weaker Canadian dollar on U.S.-dollar-denominated revenues and freight rate increases. All commodity groups saw revenue declines – metals and minerals (32 per cent), automotive (25 per cent), forest products (24 per cent), intermodal (20 per cent), petroleum and chemicals (11 per cent), coal (9 per cent), and grain and fertilizers (9 per cent).
=> Demand fall in all segments. It helps us to understand how worse the economy is in the past 6 months. On the other hand, railway industry is 3-6 months ahead of the the overall economy because they are the one who help to transport inventory stocks, not sales.
Rail freight revenue per revenue ton-mile, a measurement of yield defined as revenue earned on the movement of a ton of freight over one mile, decreased by nine per cent in the third quarter, largely due to the impact of a lower fuel surcharge and an increase in the average length of haul. These factors were partly offset by the positive translation impact of the weaker Canadian dollar and freight rate increases.
The 18 per cent decline in operating expenses was primarily due to lower fuel costs, reduced expenses for purchased services and material, and lower casualty and other expenses. These factors were partially offset by the negative translation impact of the weaker Canadian dollar on U.S.-dollar-denominated expenses.
(1) Please see discussion and reconciliation of non-GAAP adjusted performance measures in the attached supplementary schedule, Non-GAAP Measures.
Wells Fargo 3q09 press release
WELLS FARGO REPORTS RECORD Q3 AND YEAR-TO-DATE NET INCOME
• 3rd consecutive quarter of record earnings
- Record Wells Fargo net income of $3.2 billion, up 98 percent from last year; $9.5 billion year to
date, up 75 percent from last year
- Diluted earnings per common share of $0.56, up 14 percent from last year; $1.69 per share year to date
- Results driven by record $10.8 billion pre-tax, pre-provision profit (PTPP); PTPP has been more than two times quarterly net charge-offs each quarter this year, despite cyclically elevated net charge-offs. (See footnote 4 on page 20 for information on PTPP)
=> awesome results and consistent with 2q09
• Continued strong revenue
- Revenue of $22.5 billion, flat with record revenue in second quarter 2009
- $169 billion of credit extended to customers in the quarter
- Average checking and savings deposits up 11 percent (annualized) from prior quarter
- Net interest margin of 4.36 percent, up 6 basis points from prior quarter
- Cross-sell for legacy Wells Fargo a record 5.90 for retail bank households
- Broad-based revenue contribution from diverse businesses, including double-digit linked-quarter growth in asset management, auto lending, consumer finance, debit cards, retirement services, SBA lending and wealth management, along with continued strong performance from regional banking and mortgage banking
=> net interest margin improved to 4.36, best among peers and a trend that Wachovia start adpoting the high margin economic moat from legacy Wells Fargo.
• Significant increases in capital, reduction in risk
- Wells Fargo stockholders’ equity increased to $122 billion (10 percent of total assets), up
$23 billion from year end
- Generated $20 billion during the past six months toward the $13.7 billion Supervisory Capital
Assessment Program (SCAP) buffer requirement; PTPP tracking above Company’s internal SCAP estimates and 35 percent above supervisory adverse scenario estimate
- Credit reserves built by $1.0 billion ($3.0 billion year to date), reaching $24.5 billion, or
3.07 percent of total loans and 118 percent of nonaccrual loans
- Substantial increases in capital ratios driven by record retained earnings and other sources of
internal capital generation
=> I personally high the capital ratio in general is too high for the entire bank industry, but if that's what the regulatory and the analysts love to see, I think Wells Fargo has more than enough to meet their wants.
• Current projections show credit losses peaking in 2010, with consumer losses potentially peaking in first half of the year and gradually declining, absent further economic deterioration
- Growth in nonperforming loans and net charge-offs slowing as of third quarter, for consumer and commercial portfolios
- Credit performance of recent vintage legacy Wells Fargo consumer portfolios improving, largely the result of proactive credit management over past two years
- 90 days past due and still accruing levels flat with second quarter; consumer 90 days past due and still accruing declined from prior quarter
- Significantly smaller credit card portfolio than large bank peers
- Pick-a-Pay portfolio currently estimated to have lower life-of-loan losses than originally
estimated, driven in part by extensive and successful loan modification efforts
- Collateral values improving in auto market and housing prices stabilizing in many regions
- Legacy Wells Fargo commercial and commercial real estate portfolio well underwritten and
diversified; Wachovia commercial and commercial real estate portfolio marked down at merger
close at end of last year
- Legacy Wells Fargo loss rate of 3.37 percent, below large bank peers; overall loss rate of
2.50 percent reflected benefit of purchase accounting on Wachovia loan portfolio; combined
losses less than half of Company’s quarterly PTPP
=> provision rise according to my expectation, I think Wells Fargo's estimation is fair and conservative. In certain degree, this is a very econuraging bad news.
• Wachovia integration on track and on schedule
- Estimated cumulative merger expenses reduced to approximately $5.5 billion from $7.9 billion;
on track to achieve $5.0 billion annual run-rate cost savings by completion of integration in 2011
- Cross-sell revenues already being realized
- Credit overall performing in line with original expectations
- First state community bank conversion (Colorado) scheduled for November; conversion of
remaining overlapping markets expected in 2010
=> good!!
• Increased loan modifications
- Provided 62,989 trial and completed modifications through the Home Affordable Modification
Program (HAMP) and 292,005 through Company’s proprietary programs, bringing total this year through September 30, 2009, to 354,994
- Refinanced 987,000 customers’ mortgages using the Home Affordable Refinance Program
(HARP) and other standard refinance programs
- Over 20 percent of PCI Pick-a-Pay portfolio modified through September 30, 2009, with positive early performance
=> mortgage application down 11% last month, but the trend is still going up and I am sure the house market has hit the bottom even though house price rise slowly in the coming year, may upset lots of analysts and economists.
• 3rd consecutive quarter of record earnings
- Record Wells Fargo net income of $3.2 billion, up 98 percent from last year; $9.5 billion year to
date, up 75 percent from last year
- Diluted earnings per common share of $0.56, up 14 percent from last year; $1.69 per share year to date
- Results driven by record $10.8 billion pre-tax, pre-provision profit (PTPP); PTPP has been more than two times quarterly net charge-offs each quarter this year, despite cyclically elevated net charge-offs. (See footnote 4 on page 20 for information on PTPP)
=> awesome results and consistent with 2q09
• Continued strong revenue
- Revenue of $22.5 billion, flat with record revenue in second quarter 2009
- $169 billion of credit extended to customers in the quarter
- Average checking and savings deposits up 11 percent (annualized) from prior quarter
- Net interest margin of 4.36 percent, up 6 basis points from prior quarter
- Cross-sell for legacy Wells Fargo a record 5.90 for retail bank households
- Broad-based revenue contribution from diverse businesses, including double-digit linked-quarter growth in asset management, auto lending, consumer finance, debit cards, retirement services, SBA lending and wealth management, along with continued strong performance from regional banking and mortgage banking
=> net interest margin improved to 4.36, best among peers and a trend that Wachovia start adpoting the high margin economic moat from legacy Wells Fargo.
• Significant increases in capital, reduction in risk
- Wells Fargo stockholders’ equity increased to $122 billion (10 percent of total assets), up
$23 billion from year end
- Generated $20 billion during the past six months toward the $13.7 billion Supervisory Capital
Assessment Program (SCAP) buffer requirement; PTPP tracking above Company’s internal SCAP estimates and 35 percent above supervisory adverse scenario estimate
- Credit reserves built by $1.0 billion ($3.0 billion year to date), reaching $24.5 billion, or
3.07 percent of total loans and 118 percent of nonaccrual loans
- Substantial increases in capital ratios driven by record retained earnings and other sources of
internal capital generation
=> I personally high the capital ratio in general is too high for the entire bank industry, but if that's what the regulatory and the analysts love to see, I think Wells Fargo has more than enough to meet their wants.
• Current projections show credit losses peaking in 2010, with consumer losses potentially peaking in first half of the year and gradually declining, absent further economic deterioration
- Growth in nonperforming loans and net charge-offs slowing as of third quarter, for consumer and commercial portfolios
- Credit performance of recent vintage legacy Wells Fargo consumer portfolios improving, largely the result of proactive credit management over past two years
- 90 days past due and still accruing levels flat with second quarter; consumer 90 days past due and still accruing declined from prior quarter
- Significantly smaller credit card portfolio than large bank peers
- Pick-a-Pay portfolio currently estimated to have lower life-of-loan losses than originally
estimated, driven in part by extensive and successful loan modification efforts
- Collateral values improving in auto market and housing prices stabilizing in many regions
- Legacy Wells Fargo commercial and commercial real estate portfolio well underwritten and
diversified; Wachovia commercial and commercial real estate portfolio marked down at merger
close at end of last year
- Legacy Wells Fargo loss rate of 3.37 percent, below large bank peers; overall loss rate of
2.50 percent reflected benefit of purchase accounting on Wachovia loan portfolio; combined
losses less than half of Company’s quarterly PTPP
=> provision rise according to my expectation, I think Wells Fargo's estimation is fair and conservative. In certain degree, this is a very econuraging bad news.
• Wachovia integration on track and on schedule
- Estimated cumulative merger expenses reduced to approximately $5.5 billion from $7.9 billion;
on track to achieve $5.0 billion annual run-rate cost savings by completion of integration in 2011
- Cross-sell revenues already being realized
- Credit overall performing in line with original expectations
- First state community bank conversion (Colorado) scheduled for November; conversion of
remaining overlapping markets expected in 2010
=> good!!
• Increased loan modifications
- Provided 62,989 trial and completed modifications through the Home Affordable Modification
Program (HAMP) and 292,005 through Company’s proprietary programs, bringing total this year through September 30, 2009, to 354,994
- Refinanced 987,000 customers’ mortgages using the Home Affordable Refinance Program
(HARP) and other standard refinance programs
- Over 20 percent of PCI Pick-a-Pay portfolio modified through September 30, 2009, with positive early performance
=> mortgage application down 11% last month, but the trend is still going up and I am sure the house market has hit the bottom even though house price rise slowly in the coming year, may upset lots of analysts and economists.
10.20.2009
Google acquired Baidu
Baidu says we were not and will not be for sale(ccid.net) Yesterday, Google successfully issued secondary stock offerings. It collected $4.18 billion, and increased it's cash on hand to $7 billion. CEO Eric Schmidt and founder Sergey Brin held a lunch party at St. Regis hotel in New York where they revealed Google's acquistion and products plan.
Fund manager from Gabelli, Howard Ward said that many contents of the talks are related to China. Investment manager from Morgan Stanley, David Schiller pointed out directly, that the best case is that Google could buy some search company and online gaming company from China.Google is still focusing on its core business of search. They are very interested in expansion into the Chinese market.
It's dare challenge to Microsoft in court is a good example. The biggest Chinese search engine Baidu owns 37% of the market. Yahoo spent $1 billion to purchase shares in China's largest e-commerce company Alibaba last month. Ranked second with 23% of Chinese search market share, Google is facing very formidable competitions in China.One side, there is a rush to expand Chinese service. On the othe hand, there is the intensified competitions.
It could become a costly battle. Many American companies like to go around to reducing risks. Merger and acquisition are commonly used tools as well as short cuts.
Google's CEO Eric Schmidt said in July this year, that Google has two choices in China:
First is that Google simply stays as a shareholder of Baidu;
Second is that both sides further develop collaborations, and Google will purchase more Baidu shares, even as a joint company. The second choice can lead to a final takeover of Baidu by Google to make Baidu the Chinese subsidiary of Google. With the fresh obtained $4.18 billion, Google again signaled that they want to "purchase search engine and online gaming companies from China". Google already owns 3% of Baidu, and the coincidence with the sharp falling of Baidu's market price to make it very likely that Google will buy Baidu to gain the lead in the Chinese search market.
As to the news that Google possibly will buy Baidu, how Baidu looks at this? A senior executive said that it was not likely. Baidu never been and will not be for sale. Baidu's goal is to make a Chinese brand and will go outside to the whole world to establish the brand.
To sum it up, the ambitiously expanding Google is keen on the Chinese market. Even they cannot use other means to gain the control of Baidu, they can still find another target on other Chinese search engines.
=> never known that Google has acquired 3% on Baidu since 2004. Just found out.
Fund manager from Gabelli, Howard Ward said that many contents of the talks are related to China. Investment manager from Morgan Stanley, David Schiller pointed out directly, that the best case is that Google could buy some search company and online gaming company from China.Google is still focusing on its core business of search. They are very interested in expansion into the Chinese market.
It's dare challenge to Microsoft in court is a good example. The biggest Chinese search engine Baidu owns 37% of the market. Yahoo spent $1 billion to purchase shares in China's largest e-commerce company Alibaba last month. Ranked second with 23% of Chinese search market share, Google is facing very formidable competitions in China.One side, there is a rush to expand Chinese service. On the othe hand, there is the intensified competitions.
It could become a costly battle. Many American companies like to go around to reducing risks. Merger and acquisition are commonly used tools as well as short cuts.
Google's CEO Eric Schmidt said in July this year, that Google has two choices in China:
First is that Google simply stays as a shareholder of Baidu;
Second is that both sides further develop collaborations, and Google will purchase more Baidu shares, even as a joint company. The second choice can lead to a final takeover of Baidu by Google to make Baidu the Chinese subsidiary of Google. With the fresh obtained $4.18 billion, Google again signaled that they want to "purchase search engine and online gaming companies from China". Google already owns 3% of Baidu, and the coincidence with the sharp falling of Baidu's market price to make it very likely that Google will buy Baidu to gain the lead in the Chinese search market.
As to the news that Google possibly will buy Baidu, how Baidu looks at this? A senior executive said that it was not likely. Baidu never been and will not be for sale. Baidu's goal is to make a Chinese brand and will go outside to the whole world to establish the brand.
To sum it up, the ambitiously expanding Google is keen on the Chinese market. Even they cannot use other means to gain the control of Baidu, they can still find another target on other Chinese search engines.
=> never known that Google has acquired 3% on Baidu since 2004. Just found out.
10.17.2009
Econ data 09 week 42
USA
Overall
- Sep CPI down to +0.2% from up +0.4% in Aug (inline with expect, +0.2%)
- Sep Core CPI up to +0.2% from up +0.1% in Aug (better, +0.1%)
- Oct Philadelphia Fed down to 11.5 from 14.1 in Sep (worse, 12.0)
Consumer market
- Sep retail sales down to -1.5% from up +2.2% in Aug (better, -2.1%)
- Sep retail sales ex-auto down to +0.5% from up +1.0% in Aug (better, +0.2%)
- Aug business inventories down to -1.5% from down -1.1% in Jul (worse, -1.0%)
- Sep industrial production down to +0.7% from up +1.2% in Aug (better, +0.2%)
House market
- n/a
Job market
- Oct 10 initial jobless claims down to 514k from 524k last week (better, 520k)
- Oct 03 initial continuing jobless claims down to 5,992k from 6,067k last week (better, 6,000k)
Canada
- Aug new house price index down to +0.1% from +0.3% in Jul
- Aug new motor vehicle sales down to -0.3% from +5.3% in Jul
- Aug manufacturing sales down to -2.1% from +5.5% in Jul
- Sep CPI down to -0.9% Y/Y from -0.8% Y/Y in Aug
- Sep Core CPI down to +1.5% Y/Y from +1.6% Y/Y in Aug
Barrick Completes Sale of $1.25B of Debt
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Oct. 16, 2009) -
All amounts expressed in US dollars.
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX)(TSX:ABX) ("Barrick") and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Barrick (PD) Australia Finance Pty Ltd ("BPDAF"), announced today the completion of the sale of $1.25 billion in debt securities comprised of: $400 million of 4.95% notes due 2020 of BPDAF and $850 million of 5.95% notes due 2039 of BPDAF, each guaranteed by Barrick.
The net proceeds from this offering will be advanced to wholly-owned subsidiaries in the Barrick group and will all be used to further reduce the liability related to Barrick's floating spot-price (fully participating) gold contracts.
The debt securities have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933 (the "Securities Act") or any state securities laws and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and any applicable state securities laws.
=> This press release does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, the debt securities, nor shall there be any sale of the debt securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.
Barrick's vision is to be the world's best gold company by finding, acquiring, developing and producing quality reserves in a safe, profitable and socially responsible manner.
All amounts expressed in US dollars.
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX)(TSX:ABX) ("Barrick") and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Barrick (PD) Australia Finance Pty Ltd ("BPDAF"), announced today the completion of the sale of $1.25 billion in debt securities comprised of: $400 million of 4.95% notes due 2020 of BPDAF and $850 million of 5.95% notes due 2039 of BPDAF, each guaranteed by Barrick.
The net proceeds from this offering will be advanced to wholly-owned subsidiaries in the Barrick group and will all be used to further reduce the liability related to Barrick's floating spot-price (fully participating) gold contracts.
The debt securities have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933 (the "Securities Act") or any state securities laws and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and any applicable state securities laws.
=> This press release does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, the debt securities, nor shall there be any sale of the debt securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.
Barrick's vision is to be the world's best gold company by finding, acquiring, developing and producing quality reserves in a safe, profitable and socially responsible manner.
Pipeline construction boosts Yankton's sales tax
Construction of the TransCanada Keystone oil pipeline is helping to keep Yankton's sales tax receipts in the black this year.
September receipts for Yankton were 8.5 percent above September 2008, putting the city just more than 1 percent ahead of last year's sales tax receipts to date.City Manager Doug Russell said Yankton is thrilled with the 2009 annual increase, even though it budgeted for a 3 percent increase.
"I'm happy to see anything above last year _ at one point, we were down almost 3 percent from last year, which put us 6 percent below what we budgeted," Russell said. "We're happy anytime that number goes in a positive direction."More than 400 oil pipeline construction workers lived in area campgrounds, motels, houses and apartments between May and August as they installed a portion of the 2,148-mile crude oil pipeline. Workers also frequented local restaurants and other businesses.
"Every retailer in town that I've talked with had customers from the pipeline project," said Brad Dykes, chairman of the Yankton Area Chamber of Commerce pipeline task force and store manager of Yankton's Hy-Vee. "Those employees felt very welcome here."General contractor Price Gregory Construction estimates a $1 million weekly payroll while in the Yankton area.Damion Spillman, Price Gregory's local office manager, said the office laid off its welders and is getting down to just a few crews. Construction headquarters for the project moved to Norfolk, Neb., in August and the contractor hopes to wrap up work in the area the first part of November.Spillman said he's been to a lot of places and Yankton was one of the best.
"Yankton is a real nice, pretty town," he said. "Everybody went out of their way to help us out. It was truly a good experience."Russell said Yankton is fortunate to post an increase, as many South Dakota cities have been seeing drops.Sioux Falls, Pierre, Rapid City, Watertown, Brookings, Spearfish and Huron all had lower sales tax receipts in September compared to the previous year's period.
Information from: Yankton Press and Dakotan, http://www.yankton.net/
September receipts for Yankton were 8.5 percent above September 2008, putting the city just more than 1 percent ahead of last year's sales tax receipts to date.City Manager Doug Russell said Yankton is thrilled with the 2009 annual increase, even though it budgeted for a 3 percent increase.
"I'm happy to see anything above last year _ at one point, we were down almost 3 percent from last year, which put us 6 percent below what we budgeted," Russell said. "We're happy anytime that number goes in a positive direction."More than 400 oil pipeline construction workers lived in area campgrounds, motels, houses and apartments between May and August as they installed a portion of the 2,148-mile crude oil pipeline. Workers also frequented local restaurants and other businesses.
"Every retailer in town that I've talked with had customers from the pipeline project," said Brad Dykes, chairman of the Yankton Area Chamber of Commerce pipeline task force and store manager of Yankton's Hy-Vee. "Those employees felt very welcome here."General contractor Price Gregory Construction estimates a $1 million weekly payroll while in the Yankton area.Damion Spillman, Price Gregory's local office manager, said the office laid off its welders and is getting down to just a few crews. Construction headquarters for the project moved to Norfolk, Neb., in August and the contractor hopes to wrap up work in the area the first part of November.Spillman said he's been to a lot of places and Yankton was one of the best.
"Yankton is a real nice, pretty town," he said. "Everybody went out of their way to help us out. It was truly a good experience."Russell said Yankton is fortunate to post an increase, as many South Dakota cities have been seeing drops.Sioux Falls, Pierre, Rapid City, Watertown, Brookings, Spearfish and Huron all had lower sales tax receipts in September compared to the previous year's period.
Information from: Yankton Press and Dakotan, http://www.yankton.net/
Genearl Electric 3q09 results
General Electric Co. stock fell the most since July after third-quarter profit declined 45 percent and lower real estate and consumer lending caused sales to drop more than analysts predicted.
GE fell 71 cents, or 4.2 percent, to $16.08 in New York Stock Exchange trading. The shares earlier declined 5.6 percent, the most on an intraday basis since July 17.
Chief executive Jeffrey Immelt is shrinking the finance unit and considering a reduced stake in NBC Universal as he builds energy, transportation, and health care businesses. The GE Capital plan is ahead of schedule and cut into sales, he said in an interview yesterday. Higher consumer finance losses and fewer real estate transactions hurt GE Capital.
“We expected GECS to report a pretax loss of about $275 million,’’ Citigroup Inc.’s Jeffrey Sprague, ranked the top multiple-industry analyst by Institutional Investor in 2009, wrote in a note to clients. “Instead the loss was $997 million’’ before a $1.14 billion tax credit.
Revenue fell 20 percent to $37.8 billion, trailing the $39.7 billion average estimate in a Bloomberg survey, the Fairfield, Conn., company said in a statement.
Profit from continuing operations declined to $2.45 billion, or 22 cents a share.
GE fell 71 cents, or 4.2 percent, to $16.08 in New York Stock Exchange trading. The shares earlier declined 5.6 percent, the most on an intraday basis since July 17.
Chief executive Jeffrey Immelt is shrinking the finance unit and considering a reduced stake in NBC Universal as he builds energy, transportation, and health care businesses. The GE Capital plan is ahead of schedule and cut into sales, he said in an interview yesterday. Higher consumer finance losses and fewer real estate transactions hurt GE Capital.
“We expected GECS to report a pretax loss of about $275 million,’’ Citigroup Inc.’s Jeffrey Sprague, ranked the top multiple-industry analyst by Institutional Investor in 2009, wrote in a note to clients. “Instead the loss was $997 million’’ before a $1.14 billion tax credit.
Revenue fell 20 percent to $37.8 billion, trailing the $39.7 billion average estimate in a Bloomberg survey, the Fairfield, Conn., company said in a statement.
Profit from continuing operations declined to $2.45 billion, or 22 cents a share.
Imperial Oil Sees $200 Billion Oil-Sands Investment
By Sonja Franklin
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Imperial Oil Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Bruce March said he sees $200 billion invested in oil sands in the next 10 years.
March made the comments in a written copy of a speech he’s set to give to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce today. Oil-sands production is expected to be more than 4 million barrels a day in the next 20 years, he said.
=> Bilibala see great investment potential in tar sand too.
Calgary-based Imperial Oil produced the equivalent of 270,000 barrels oil a day in the second quarter from such projects as Cold Lake in Alberta, conventional natural-gas wells in western Canada and oil-sands miner Syncrude Canada Ltd.
Imperial is Canada’s largest refiner with the capacity to process about 500,000 barrels of oil a day at four plants in Alberta, Ontario and Nova Scotia. It also operates about 1,900 Esso-brand service stations across the country.
March, who took the helm of Imperial in 2008 when Tim Hearn retired as CEO, also said the company’s Kearl project may cut greenhouse-gas emissions by almost half a million tons a year.
Imperial Oil is 70 percent owned by Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sonja Franklin in Calgary at sfranklin6@bloomberg.net
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Imperial Oil Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Bruce March said he sees $200 billion invested in oil sands in the next 10 years.
March made the comments in a written copy of a speech he’s set to give to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce today. Oil-sands production is expected to be more than 4 million barrels a day in the next 20 years, he said.
=> Bilibala see great investment potential in tar sand too.
Calgary-based Imperial Oil produced the equivalent of 270,000 barrels oil a day in the second quarter from such projects as Cold Lake in Alberta, conventional natural-gas wells in western Canada and oil-sands miner Syncrude Canada Ltd.
Imperial is Canada’s largest refiner with the capacity to process about 500,000 barrels of oil a day at four plants in Alberta, Ontario and Nova Scotia. It also operates about 1,900 Esso-brand service stations across the country.
March, who took the helm of Imperial in 2008 when Tim Hearn retired as CEO, also said the company’s Kearl project may cut greenhouse-gas emissions by almost half a million tons a year.
Imperial Oil is 70 percent owned by Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sonja Franklin in Calgary at sfranklin6@bloomberg.net
Manulife fund changes
TORONTO, Oct. 16 /CNW/ - Following the purchase of AIC's Canadian retail investment fund business last month, Manulife Mutual Funds, a division of Elliott & Page Limited, announced that it will be terminating four mutual funds and re-assigning portfolio management responsibilities of select AIC funds to MFC Global Investment Management.
As a result of the shift to MFC Global, some funds have experienced investment strategy changes effective October 13, 2009, while others will experience changes effective October 19, 2009. In addition, Manulife Mutual Funds also announced fee reductions effective November 2, 2009, on two of its money market funds in response to low interest rates on money market instruments in Canada and to maintain a positive yield for securityholders.
The acquisition of AIC funds in September created significant scale and presence for Manulife in the Canadian retail investment fund market. Overall retail fund assets under management for Canadians grew 38 per cent to approximately $13.9 billion, based on latest industry figures.
Fund Terminations
"We are closing four funds to both streamline our product offering and to reduce the costs associated with managing smaller funds," said Jeff Ray, Assistant Vice President, Mutual Fund Products. "This will allow Manulife Mutual Funds to concentrate resources in other mandates that will better serve the interests of our investors," added Mr. Ray.
Manulife will terminate the following four Manulife AIC Funds on or about
December 18, 2009.
- Value Leaders Maximum Growth Portfolio
- AIC American Advantage Corporate Class
- AIC Global Advantage Corporate Class
- AIC Global Premium Dividend Income Corporate Class
Prior to the termination date, securityholders of the terminating funds will receive a notice outlining their options to redeem their investments or to switch to another fund within the Manulife AIC Fund family.
Investment Strategy Changes
"While fund objectives will remain unchanged, some investment strategy changes will be implemented to more closely reflect the investment approach utilized by the MFC Global Investment Management portfolio team," said Mr. Ray.
As a result of the shift to MFC Global, some funds have experienced investment strategy changes effective October 13, 2009, while others will experience changes effective October 19, 2009. In addition, Manulife Mutual Funds also announced fee reductions effective November 2, 2009, on two of its money market funds in response to low interest rates on money market instruments in Canada and to maintain a positive yield for securityholders.
The acquisition of AIC funds in September created significant scale and presence for Manulife in the Canadian retail investment fund market. Overall retail fund assets under management for Canadians grew 38 per cent to approximately $13.9 billion, based on latest industry figures.
Fund Terminations
"We are closing four funds to both streamline our product offering and to reduce the costs associated with managing smaller funds," said Jeff Ray, Assistant Vice President, Mutual Fund Products. "This will allow Manulife Mutual Funds to concentrate resources in other mandates that will better serve the interests of our investors," added Mr. Ray.
Manulife will terminate the following four Manulife AIC Funds on or about
December 18, 2009.
- Value Leaders Maximum Growth Portfolio
- AIC American Advantage Corporate Class
- AIC Global Advantage Corporate Class
- AIC Global Premium Dividend Income Corporate Class
Prior to the termination date, securityholders of the terminating funds will receive a notice outlining their options to redeem their investments or to switch to another fund within the Manulife AIC Fund family.
Investment Strategy Changes
"While fund objectives will remain unchanged, some investment strategy changes will be implemented to more closely reflect the investment approach utilized by the MFC Global Investment Management portfolio team," said Mr. Ray.
10.16.2009
Esprit buy stake from China Resource
HONG KONG, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Esprit Holdings (0330.HK), the world's No. 6 fashion retailer by market value, is considering buying the remaining stake in a China joint venture from partner China Resources Enterprise (0291.HK), Esprit's chairman said.
But there have been no discussions between the two companies yet, Heinz Krogner-Kornalik told reporters.
"Esprit holds the Esprit brand and is the brand owner, so we are the natural successor," he said.
The joint venture is 49 percent owned by Esprit and 51 percent by China Resources. (Reporting by Fion Li; Editing by David Cowell)
Esprit buy stake from China Resource
HONG KONG, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Esprit Holdings (0330.HK), the world's No. 6 fashion retailer by market value, is considering buying the remaining stake in a China joint venture from partner China Resources Enterprise (0291.HK), Esprit's chairman said.
But there have been no discussions between the two companies yet, Heinz Krogner-Kornalik told reporters.
"Esprit holds the Esprit brand and is the brand owner, so we are the natural successor," he said.
The joint venture is 49 percent owned by Esprit and 51 percent by China Resources. (Reporting by Fion Li; Editing by David Cowell)
10.15.2009
Google 3q09 results
Google Inc.'s (GOOG) third-quarter earnings rose 27% to top Wall Street expectations as the Internet company recorded a return to sequential growth in traffic to its advertisers.
In after-hours trading, the company's shares were up 2.1% at $540.89. The stock, having more than doubled from November's lows, hit a 52-week high of $536.90 earlier Thursday.
The worst of the downturn passed with only a hiccup from the search-engine giant as the company is already setting plans to beef up operations after laying off workers for the first time earlier this year.
Although paid clicks had been pressured lately by the economy - falling 2% sequentially in the second quarter - the outlook has remained bright, especially with Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) bing.com's having so far been unable to shake Google's search dominance.
Google reported earnings of $1.64 billion, or $5.13 a share, compared with $1.29 billion, or $4.06 a share, a year ago. Excluding stock-based compensation, the figure rose to $5.89 a share from $4.92.
=> It is US$0.26 or 4.6% better than Bilibala's expectation of US$5.63 too.
Revenue rose 7.3% to $5.94 billion. Traffic-acquisition costs - commissions paid to marketing partners - totaled $1.56 billion, or 27% of advertising revenue.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected adjusted earnings of $5.42 a share on revenue of $4.24 billion, excluding traffic-acquisition costs.
=> Bilibala once again did a better guess than Wall Street
Google's U.S. paid clicks - a measure of how frequently consumers clicked on its ads - surged 14% from a year earlier and were up 4% from the second quarter. Costs per click fell 6% from a year earlier but rose 5% from the previous quarter.
-By Jay Miller, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2355; jay.miller@dowjones.com
In after-hours trading, the company's shares were up 2.1% at $540.89. The stock, having more than doubled from November's lows, hit a 52-week high of $536.90 earlier Thursday.
The worst of the downturn passed with only a hiccup from the search-engine giant as the company is already setting plans to beef up operations after laying off workers for the first time earlier this year.
Although paid clicks had been pressured lately by the economy - falling 2% sequentially in the second quarter - the outlook has remained bright, especially with Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) bing.com's having so far been unable to shake Google's search dominance.
Google reported earnings of $1.64 billion, or $5.13 a share, compared with $1.29 billion, or $4.06 a share, a year ago. Excluding stock-based compensation, the figure rose to $5.89 a share from $4.92.
=> It is US$0.26 or 4.6% better than Bilibala's expectation of US$5.63 too.
Revenue rose 7.3% to $5.94 billion. Traffic-acquisition costs - commissions paid to marketing partners - totaled $1.56 billion, or 27% of advertising revenue.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected adjusted earnings of $5.42 a share on revenue of $4.24 billion, excluding traffic-acquisition costs.
=> Bilibala once again did a better guess than Wall Street
Google's U.S. paid clicks - a measure of how frequently consumers clicked on its ads - surged 14% from a year earlier and were up 4% from the second quarter. Costs per click fell 6% from a year earlier but rose 5% from the previous quarter.
-By Jay Miller, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2355; jay.miller@dowjones.com
Google needs 6% growth in sales?
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Google Inc., reporting third-quarter earnings after markets close, needs to post sequential sales growth of at least 6 percent to meet traders’ “whisper number” and send the stock higher, an analyst said.
=> 6%? Should have no problem!! Given 50% of the business from international and USD$ down by 5% to 15% vs other currencies. That will generate additional 5% increase in sales (50% x (5%+10%)/2). It is kind of expected and has to be at least 6%.
Investors are looking for revenue, excluding sales passed on to partner sites, to rise to about $4.3 billion from $4.07 billion in the previous three months, according to Aaron Kessler, a San Francisco-based analyst at Kaufman Brothers LP. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey estimate revenue of $4.25 billion.
“Upside’s getting priced in,” Kessler said in an interview. “At least we know where the bottom was and we’re kind of out of the bottom here.”
Google, which grappled with a slowdown in online advertising sales during the recession, is now seeing a more “normalized” level of spending by clients, Kessler said. Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt said earlier this month that the “worst is behind us.” Analysts have raised their estimate for Google’s third-quarter sales by $45.2 million in the past four weeks.
Clayton Moran, an analyst with Benchmark Co. in Boca Raton, Florida, said investors are looking for $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion in sales for the third quarter. Google may need to report $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion to get the company’s stock “to really continue to move higher,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Analysts predict Google will report earnings, excluding stock-based compensation, of $5.43 a share, according to the Bloomberg survey.
Google, based in Mountain View, California, fell $3.58 to $531.74 at 12:32 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares had climbed 74 percent this year before today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at Bwomack1@bloomberg.net
=> 6%? Should have no problem!! Given 50% of the business from international and USD$ down by 5% to 15% vs other currencies. That will generate additional 5% increase in sales (50% x (5%+10%)/2). It is kind of expected and has to be at least 6%.
Investors are looking for revenue, excluding sales passed on to partner sites, to rise to about $4.3 billion from $4.07 billion in the previous three months, according to Aaron Kessler, a San Francisco-based analyst at Kaufman Brothers LP. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey estimate revenue of $4.25 billion.
“Upside’s getting priced in,” Kessler said in an interview. “At least we know where the bottom was and we’re kind of out of the bottom here.”
Google, which grappled with a slowdown in online advertising sales during the recession, is now seeing a more “normalized” level of spending by clients, Kessler said. Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt said earlier this month that the “worst is behind us.” Analysts have raised their estimate for Google’s third-quarter sales by $45.2 million in the past four weeks.
Clayton Moran, an analyst with Benchmark Co. in Boca Raton, Florida, said investors are looking for $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion in sales for the third quarter. Google may need to report $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion to get the company’s stock “to really continue to move higher,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Analysts predict Google will report earnings, excluding stock-based compensation, of $5.43 a share, according to the Bloomberg survey.
Google, based in Mountain View, California, fell $3.58 to $531.74 at 12:32 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares had climbed 74 percent this year before today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at Bwomack1@bloomberg.net
Wind Power
Oct 15, 2009 (Sun Journal - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- TRP Quote Chart News PowerRating -- KIBBY TOWNSHIP -- TransCanada
Corp. will hold a grand opening celebration of its Kibby Wind Power Project for invited guests only on Friday
However, there will be a chance for members of the public to get a tour as well at another time, project spokesman Tobey Williamson said Wednesday.
To set up a tour of the site, people may call 1-877-943-3367.
Nearly half of the project's 44 wind turbines are now operational, providing clean energy to the New England power grid, according to a news release.
The $320 million, 132 megawatt Kibby Wind Power Project is the largest wind power development in New England, according to the company.
It is providing renewable electricity for the equivalent of 50,000 average-sized Maine homes, a release stated.
TransCanada plans to have half of the 44 turbines in service this year, with the remaining turbines going on line in 2010.
TransCanada has spent more than $75 million in U.S. dollars on materials, labor and services in Maine, with nearly $6 million spent in Franklin County, the release states. The project has also supported approximately 300 construction jobs, 90 percent of which have gone to Maine residents. Eight people, mostly from Franklin County, now have full-time jobs maintaining the turbines and overseeing local operations, the release stated.
Corp. will hold a grand opening celebration of its Kibby Wind Power Project for invited guests only on Friday
However, there will be a chance for members of the public to get a tour as well at another time, project spokesman Tobey Williamson said Wednesday.
To set up a tour of the site, people may call 1-877-943-3367.
Nearly half of the project's 44 wind turbines are now operational, providing clean energy to the New England power grid, according to a news release.
The $320 million, 132 megawatt Kibby Wind Power Project is the largest wind power development in New England, according to the company.
It is providing renewable electricity for the equivalent of 50,000 average-sized Maine homes, a release stated.
TransCanada plans to have half of the 44 turbines in service this year, with the remaining turbines going on line in 2010.
TransCanada has spent more than $75 million in U.S. dollars on materials, labor and services in Maine, with nearly $6 million spent in Franklin County, the release states. The project has also supported approximately 300 construction jobs, 90 percent of which have gone to Maine residents. Eight people, mostly from Franklin County, now have full-time jobs maintaining the turbines and overseeing local operations, the release stated.
10.14.2009
Manulife 3q09 results forecast
Bilibala think Manulife's 3q09 adjusted EPS will be about CA$0.64, down from CA$1.09 (reported EPS) in 2q09 and up from CA$0.34 in 3q08. Bilibala may be a bit optimal, but i think Manulife's 2010 Outlook will be great.
In 3q09, here are some highlights to calculate my estimated EPS figures:
In 3q09, here are some highlights to calculate my estimated EPS figures:
- Corporate spread down by 30-40 bps => positive
- Risk free rate looks flat => neutral
- Market volatility down slightly from 27% to 24.5% => slightly positive
- Equity market doing great, up 9.8% in Toronto, 15.0% in USA and 14.0% in Hong Kong => positive
- USD to CAD dropped 13.72% => extremely negative
- as per 2q09 press release, management will put through $500M change in assumption (I think this figure will be around $300M instead of $500M) => negative
2010 Outlook
- Corporate spread should looks flat => neutral
- Risk free rate should go up => positive
- Market volatility should go down => positive
- Equity market should go up, but not as dramatic as 2009 => positive
- USD to CAD?? I don't know, I still think USD will not continue to fall => n/a
Just add some Manulife today at $22.41. No change on my target fair value.
10.09.2009
Econ data 09 week 41
USA
Overall
Canada
Consumer market
Overall
- n/a
- Sep ISM Service up to 50.9 from 48.4 in Aug (better, 50.0)
- Aug consumer credit down another -12.0B follow -$19B down in Jul (worse, -$10B)
- Aug wholesale inventories up to -1.3% from -1.6% in Jul (worse, -1.0%)
- n/a
- 10/03 initial jobless claim down to 521k from 554k in last week (better, 540k)
- 09/2 contining jobless claim down to 6,040k from 6,112k in last week (better, 6,105k)
Canada
Consumer market
- 3Q business outlook future sales index up to 53.0 from 39.0 in 2Q
- Sep unemployment rate down to 8.4% from 8.7% in Aug
- Sep net change in employment up to +30.6k from +27.1k
- Aug building permit up to 7.2% from -10.0% in Jul
- Sep housing starts up down to 150.1k from +157.3k in Aug
Guesitmation on Google's 3q09 results
=> let's see who's guess is more accurate, Bilibala or Wall Street.
=> Bilibala's guess on 3q09 adjusted EPS is US$5.63
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Google Inc. is expected to post gains in profit and sales when it reports third-quarter results after the market's close next Thursday, as the company is expected to benefit from a preference for online search advertising during the downturn, and from a concerted effort to cut costs.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimate Google
(GOOG 519.14, +4.96, +0.97%) will report earnings excluding special items of $5.37 a share for the period ended in September, and $4.2 billion in net revenue.
That compares to earnings excluding items of $4.92 a share, and $4 billion in net revenue in the same period last year.
Google's mainstay of online search advertising has suffered recently alongside the broader advertising market -- though it's also generally proven more resilient. Meanwhile, the company has continued to garner a much larger audience for its search service than its peers.
"We continue to believe that Q2 may have been the trough fundamentals quarter for Google on a reported trends basis, hence the positive outlook for Q3," Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
According to recent data from comScore Inc., Google had a 69% share of the international search market in August. Yahoo Inc. (YHOO 17.03, -0.55, -3.13%) had a 6.7% international market share, according to the data, while Microsoft Corp. (MSFT 25.60, -0.08, -0.29%) captured 2.3%.
As the economy makes an anticipated recovery this year, Google's search advertising business is expected to benefit -- though timing remains unclear.
Soleil Securities analyst Laura Martin told clients in a note published Wednesday that she recently lowered her estimate for Google's revenue in the third quarter by 2%, thanks to "an economy that is improving at a slower rate than we had previously projected."
However, Martin also acknowledged recent cost cutting at the Internet giant, and lowered her estimate of expenses in the quarter by 5%.
Justin Post of Bank of America/Merrill Lynch agreed that cost controls will likely benefit the company's bottom line. "We expect Google to continue to find cost efficiencies so we would expect revenue upside to flow to the bottom-line," he wrote in report Monday.
Google delivered earnings results in July that topped Wall Street estimates, thanks largely to cost cutting. Google executives told journalists in New York earlier this week that they've sought to reset expectations among employees for perks and other benefits, according to media reports.
Recent data cast some doubt on the health of the Internet advertising market as a whole. The Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP released a report earlier this week estimating that total online advertising revenue in the U.S. fell roughly 5% in the first half of this year.
Still, the report noted that search advertising actually rose slightly to $5.1 billion for the period. See related story.
Google's rate of so-called paid clicks, or the number of times users click on advertisements and generate revenue for the company, has tailed off of late, however. And the average price paid by advertisers, or cost-per-click, has flagged recently.
Brigantine Advisors analyst Colin Gillis told clients in a recent research note that a 5% to 10% increase in Google's cost-per-click rate in the third quarter compared to the prior period would be an "outstanding" result. Lower than 3% growth would be "disappointing," Gillis wrote.
Paid click growth, meanwhile, should "return to a positive range," Gillis wrote.
=> Bilibala's guess on 3q09 adjusted EPS is US$5.63
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Google Inc. is expected to post gains in profit and sales when it reports third-quarter results after the market's close next Thursday, as the company is expected to benefit from a preference for online search advertising during the downturn, and from a concerted effort to cut costs.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimate Google
(GOOG 519.14, +4.96, +0.97%) will report earnings excluding special items of $5.37 a share for the period ended in September, and $4.2 billion in net revenue.
That compares to earnings excluding items of $4.92 a share, and $4 billion in net revenue in the same period last year.
Google's mainstay of online search advertising has suffered recently alongside the broader advertising market -- though it's also generally proven more resilient. Meanwhile, the company has continued to garner a much larger audience for its search service than its peers.
"We continue to believe that Q2 may have been the trough fundamentals quarter for Google on a reported trends basis, hence the positive outlook for Q3," Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
According to recent data from comScore Inc., Google had a 69% share of the international search market in August. Yahoo Inc. (YHOO 17.03, -0.55, -3.13%) had a 6.7% international market share, according to the data, while Microsoft Corp. (MSFT 25.60, -0.08, -0.29%) captured 2.3%.
As the economy makes an anticipated recovery this year, Google's search advertising business is expected to benefit -- though timing remains unclear.
Soleil Securities analyst Laura Martin told clients in a note published Wednesday that she recently lowered her estimate for Google's revenue in the third quarter by 2%, thanks to "an economy that is improving at a slower rate than we had previously projected."
However, Martin also acknowledged recent cost cutting at the Internet giant, and lowered her estimate of expenses in the quarter by 5%.
Justin Post of Bank of America/Merrill Lynch agreed that cost controls will likely benefit the company's bottom line. "We expect Google to continue to find cost efficiencies so we would expect revenue upside to flow to the bottom-line," he wrote in report Monday.
Google delivered earnings results in July that topped Wall Street estimates, thanks largely to cost cutting. Google executives told journalists in New York earlier this week that they've sought to reset expectations among employees for perks and other benefits, according to media reports.
Recent data cast some doubt on the health of the Internet advertising market as a whole. The Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP released a report earlier this week estimating that total online advertising revenue in the U.S. fell roughly 5% in the first half of this year.
Still, the report noted that search advertising actually rose slightly to $5.1 billion for the period. See related story.
Google's rate of so-called paid clicks, or the number of times users click on advertisements and generate revenue for the company, has tailed off of late, however. And the average price paid by advertisers, or cost-per-click, has flagged recently.
Brigantine Advisors analyst Colin Gillis told clients in a recent research note that a 5% to 10% increase in Google's cost-per-click rate in the third quarter compared to the prior period would be an "outstanding" result. Lower than 3% growth would be "disappointing," Gillis wrote.
Paid click growth, meanwhile, should "return to a positive range," Gillis wrote.
末日博士料股市大調整
For most of the time, this kind of estimation is wrong and never come true. On the other hand, it always happen because those analysts would like to draw investors' attention.
Even one failed 1000 times and guess 1 time correctly, for some reason, that analyst will become famous. Investors & media will honour that person as "God".
2009年 10月 06日 00:00 中國窗
http://www.hkcd.com.hk/content/2009-10/06/content_2406487.htm
恒生指數在9月份下旬跌破了21000點關，在10月的第一個交易日急跌500多點。歐美經濟復蘇乏力，一般認為股市升幅超越基本因素，市場憂慮情緒高漲，沒有內地股市支撐，預料恒指20000點守不住，10月份港股進入大調整期。
Even one failed 1000 times and guess 1 time correctly, for some reason, that analyst will become famous. Investors & media will honour that person as "God".
2009年 10月 06日 00:00 中國窗
http://www.hkcd.com.hk/content/2009-10/06/content_2406487.htm
恒生指數在9月份下旬跌破了21000點關，在10月的第一個交易日急跌500多點。歐美經濟復蘇乏力，一般認為股市升幅超越基本因素，市場憂慮情緒高漲，沒有內地股市支撐，預料恒指20000點守不住，10月份港股進入大調整期。
港股自3月9日跌至今年低位11344后，港股連續兩季急升，在第三季升了15%，單9月份恒生指數升了1231點，恒指最高在9月17 日，升到21929點，只差70點便升至22000點心理關口，比起3月份低位，差不多升了近一倍。9月份升市主要是熱錢主導，自9月18日港股逆轉以 來，市場憂慮資金流走，再加上10月份A股大量股份解凍，令市場氣氛變成悲觀。新股上市(IPO)在短短兩周內從極度樂觀變成極度悲觀。國藥(1099) 及中冶H股(1618)招股時反應十分熱烈，可惜中冶H股首日股價跌12%，國藥首日上市只升18%，今人失望，跟着連續5隻新股跌破發行價，新股必賺神 話幻滅。
美國經濟表現欠佳，上星期經濟數據好轉，但本周又再下滑，最重要的是失業率升至9.8%的26年高位，這次經濟衰退的深度，比得上26年前 1983年的衰退，現美國失業人數已經超過1500萬人，是歷史新高，自07年12月美國經濟衰退開始以來，美國已經失去超過700萬個職位，自08年9 月雷曼破產以來，失至的職位達500萬。美股由升轉跌，拖累亞洲股市。末日博士魯賓尼教授認為全球股市及商品市場進入一個新調整期，主要原因是經濟動力不 足夠，股市升幅大過基本因素。
港股在9月17日到頂后，走勢逆轉，持續向下走，現時10天移動平均線在21140而50天移動平均線在20648，本周10天線將跌穿 10天線，出現死亡交叉，是今年3月9日以來第三次出現。3月24日10天線在13910點跌破50天線，之后在7月15日，10天線在18259點跌破 50天線，出現第二個死亡交叉。上兩次港股都在死亡交叉出現后反彈，以此推論，10月份將會在20000點以上出現第三個死亡交叉，港股相信會在死亡交叉 出現后反彈，因此投資者應部署在10月份股市跌至低位時入市補倉。
新興國家經濟實力提升
這次金融海嘯令美國國力大減，尤其是經濟實力減幅最大，美國國民生產一直都占全球30%，市民消費更占國民生產65%，等於9萬億美元，自從二次世界大戰結束以后，美國消費者開支一直是全球經濟增長進力。
一場金融海嘯令美國經濟增長今年負數，明年只會增長1.5%，消費開支減幅比經濟大，失業問題令美國人儲蓄，今年美國私人儲蓄率達6.9%。相反中國今年雖然也受金融海嘯影響，但仍可以保持8%經濟增長，明年預測經濟增長達9.1%。
不單止中國，印度及巴西也有驕人的經濟增長，印度經濟增長少中國1至2個百分點。以國民生產值計算，2008年中國經濟已經達到全球第二，令人意外的是巴西已經達到全球第五大經濟體系，未來10年印度及巴西將會取代日本和德國成為全球第三及第四大經濟體系。
富昌證券總經理藺常念(作者為證監會持牌人)逢星期二刊出
Google將推新版AdSense
2009/10/05 21:21 鉅亨網編譯張正芊 綜合外電
全球網路廣告業龍頭 Google Inc. (GOOG-US﹔谷歌)預定周一推出適用於智慧型手機的新版 AdSense 網路文字廣告刊登系統，允許更多元的廣告刊登形式，例如不同的顯示尺寸以及更複雜的平面設計，甚至可包含小型影像。透過該系統，手機發行商能夠讓智慧型手 機使用者，觀看到 Google 的文字廣告。而為了滿足這類手機的高階功能，Google 研發新的廣告刊登系統，使其展示效果較好、更漂亮，也讓手機商及 Google 可以藉打入高階市場而增加收入。不過，Google 新版 AdSense 原訂在 6 周前就推出，卻遭遇多項程序錯誤而延宕至今。一方面顯示才剛開始熱門發展的智慧型手機，仍有許多尚未充分考量的領域，例如 Palm Inc. (PALM-US) 新推出的 Palm Pre 手機正因為太新，而尚未納入程式規劃範圍內。另一方面也顯示 Google 在積極創新產品的同時，考量似乎仍過於單純。據《紐約時報》報導，Google 在正式推出程式產品之前，僅透過比例極小的現流設備來測試。同一時間，除了與 4 家手機商進行新廣告系統測試外，還維持原基本廣告系統並行運作，以為控管。最後，Google 的新廣告系統研發者還得獲得大量測試結果，並確認在系統供應的 27 個國家中，使用不同語言的廣告排版結果都無誤。即便如此，Sanford C. Bernstein & Company 分析師Jeffrey Lindsay 也不看好手機網路廣告市場。他於上周公佈的報告中指出，儘管手機使用人口持續增加中，但潛在營收有限，預期至 2013 年，美國地區的手機搜尋業務營收占 Google 全年營收比例，也依舊不及2%。另一方面，對手雅虎 (Yahoo Inc.﹔YHOO-US) 上周二也率先宣佈推出相似的廣告新功能，提供適用於部分高階手機的獨特搜尋廣告系統。讓 Google 感受到更大壓力。
全球網路廣告業龍頭 Google Inc. (GOOG-US﹔谷歌)預定周一推出適用於智慧型手機的新版 AdSense 網路文字廣告刊登系統，允許更多元的廣告刊登形式，例如不同的顯示尺寸以及更複雜的平面設計，甚至可包含小型影像。透過該系統，手機發行商能夠讓智慧型手 機使用者，觀看到 Google 的文字廣告。而為了滿足這類手機的高階功能，Google 研發新的廣告刊登系統，使其展示效果較好、更漂亮，也讓手機商及 Google 可以藉打入高階市場而增加收入。不過，Google 新版 AdSense 原訂在 6 周前就推出，卻遭遇多項程序錯誤而延宕至今。一方面顯示才剛開始熱門發展的智慧型手機，仍有許多尚未充分考量的領域，例如 Palm Inc. (PALM-US) 新推出的 Palm Pre 手機正因為太新，而尚未納入程式規劃範圍內。另一方面也顯示 Google 在積極創新產品的同時，考量似乎仍過於單純。據《紐約時報》報導，Google 在正式推出程式產品之前，僅透過比例極小的現流設備來測試。同一時間，除了與 4 家手機商進行新廣告系統測試外，還維持原基本廣告系統並行運作，以為控管。最後，Google 的新廣告系統研發者還得獲得大量測試結果，並確認在系統供應的 27 個國家中，使用不同語言的廣告排版結果都無誤。即便如此，Sanford C. Bernstein & Company 分析師Jeffrey Lindsay 也不看好手機網路廣告市場。他於上周公佈的報告中指出，儘管手機使用人口持續增加中，但潛在營收有限，預期至 2013 年，美國地區的手機搜尋業務營收占 Google 全年營收比例，也依舊不及2%。另一方面，對手雅虎 (Yahoo Inc.﹔YHOO-US) 上周二也率先宣佈推出相似的廣告新功能，提供適用於部分高階手機的獨特搜尋廣告系統。讓 Google 感受到更大壓力。
Gmail電郵受病毒攻擊
2009年 10月 7日 00:09
http://chinese.wsj.com/big5/20091007/BUS008108.asp?source=channel
谷 歌發言人表示﹐公司近來發現各類電子郵箱都受到了釣魚計劃病毒的影響﹐其中就包括Gmail郵件帳戶﹔黑客利用該病毒獲取用戶電子郵件帳戶的保密信息。發 言人稱﹐已強制受影響帳戶重新設置密碼。谷歌表示﹐該病毒並未破壞Gmail的安全系統﹐而是一個誘騙用戶向黑客洩露個人信息的騙局。
http://chinese.wsj.com/big5/20091007/BUS008108.asp?source=channel
英
國廣播公司(BBC)週二報導稱﹐谷歌(Google Inc., GOOG)已向該電視頻道證實﹐其電子郵件系統Gmail受到了釣魚計劃(Phishing Scheme)病毒的影響。谷 歌發言人表示﹐公司近來發現各類電子郵箱都受到了釣魚計劃病毒的影響﹐其中就包括Gmail郵件帳戶﹔黑客利用該病毒獲取用戶電子郵件帳戶的保密信息。發 言人稱﹐已強制受影響帳戶重新設置密碼。谷歌表示﹐該病毒並未破壞Gmail的安全系統﹐而是一個誘騙用戶向黑客洩露個人信息的騙局。
未來智慧手機需求
2009/10/08 13:00 鉅亨網黃欣 綜合報導
全球最大手機通訊商中國移動 (0941-HK、CHL-US) 預期，未來數年內，智慧型手機需求將大幅增加。中國移動通信研究院院長黃曉慶說，該公司認為未來數年，智慧型手機需求將呈二位數字成長，銷售至少是其他款 式手機的 2-3 倍。黃曉慶指出，在未來 2-3 年內，智慧型手機的平均售價將從目前的 300 美元降至 150 美元以下，而有 50%的中國移動客戶都將轉為智慧型手機使用者。而目前約有 10% 的客戶使用智慧型手機。對大部分電信業者而言，以 3G 智慧手機搭配行動上網服務，是增加收益的最好方案，因為目前語音通話市場已幾近飽和，且競爭激烈。中國移動於 9 月揭露了 3G 智慧手機的銷售方案，主推的是一款名為 OPhone 的低價手機，由美國邁威科技(MRVL-US；Marvell Technology) 所研發。
中國移動希望 OPhone 能為其帶來競爭優勢。目前中國移動所推出的手機，仍以使用微軟 (MSFT-US；Microsoft) 的 Windows Mobile 與諾基亞 (NOK1V-FI；Nokia) 的 Symbian 兩大作業平台為主，不過該公司也正自行研發作業平台。黃曉慶說，該公司正專注在研發平台的使用者體驗的部分。「贏得客戶的心比賺客戶的錢更重要。」他說。 為了吸引應用程式開發商與其進行合作，全球主要電信營運商如中國移動、沃達豐 (VOD-UK；Vodafone)、Verizon (VZ-US) 和 Softbank (9984-JP) 等，正共同研發中介軟體，以讓軟體程式能在不同營運上的手機上運作。目前中國移動與沃達豐已經開放在該中介軟體的服務，而 Verizon and Softbank 則預期於明 (2010) 年加入。黃曉慶說，雖然目前市場並未有明顯衝擊，但從軟體開發商方面得到的訊息，已經開始有這樣的需求產生。
全球最大手機通訊商中國移動 (0941-HK、CHL-US) 預期，未來數年內，智慧型手機需求將大幅增加。中國移動通信研究院院長黃曉慶說，該公司認為未來數年，智慧型手機需求將呈二位數字成長，銷售至少是其他款 式手機的 2-3 倍。黃曉慶指出，在未來 2-3 年內，智慧型手機的平均售價將從目前的 300 美元降至 150 美元以下，而有 50%的中國移動客戶都將轉為智慧型手機使用者。而目前約有 10% 的客戶使用智慧型手機。對大部分電信業者而言，以 3G 智慧手機搭配行動上網服務，是增加收益的最好方案，因為目前語音通話市場已幾近飽和，且競爭激烈。中國移動於 9 月揭露了 3G 智慧手機的銷售方案，主推的是一款名為 OPhone 的低價手機，由美國邁威科技(MRVL-US；Marvell Technology) 所研發。
中國移動希望 OPhone 能為其帶來競爭優勢。目前中國移動所推出的手機，仍以使用微軟 (MSFT-US；Microsoft) 的 Windows Mobile 與諾基亞 (NOK1V-FI；Nokia) 的 Symbian 兩大作業平台為主，不過該公司也正自行研發作業平台。黃曉慶說，該公司正專注在研發平台的使用者體驗的部分。「贏得客戶的心比賺客戶的錢更重要。」他說。 為了吸引應用程式開發商與其進行合作，全球主要電信營運商如中國移動、沃達豐 (VOD-UK；Vodafone)、Verizon (VZ-US) 和 Softbank (9984-JP) 等，正共同研發中介軟體，以讓軟體程式能在不同營運上的手機上運作。目前中國移動與沃達豐已經開放在該中介軟體的服務，而 Verizon and Softbank 則預期於明 (2010) 年加入。黃曉慶說，雖然目前市場並未有明顯衝擊，但從軟體開發商方面得到的訊息，已經開始有這樣的需求產生。
10.07.2009
Aging impact
发布时间： 2009-07-24
http://www.stdaily.com 2009年07月24日 来源： 科技日报 作者：
再过40年，全球人口老化可能会颠覆世人对“中年”、“长者”的定义。据香港《文汇报》21日报道，美国人口调查局最新研究指出，目前全球65岁以上老人的增长速度是历来最快。到2050年，全球达“期颐之年”(100岁)的人瑞将迫近600万人；在2017年，全球65岁以上老人数目更将超越5岁以下小童，是人类有史以来的首次。
在古时，活过“期颐之年”几乎是梦想，但目前全球年过100岁的人口，已由1950年的数千急增至34万，到本世纪中更会增加近20倍，至600万人，当中尤以美国及日本最多百岁人瑞。届时日本人口年龄中位数将由37岁急升至55岁，“中年”年龄层或须重新定义。
截至2008年中，全球65岁以上长者人口约5.06亿。美国人口调查局预计，到2040年，数字将升至13亿，占届时全球总人口的14%。当中，年过80的“最老”一群更会急增133%，为子孙一代带来沉重压力。
撰写报告的人口调查员何万及金塞拉指出，长者人口急增的主因是战后婴儿潮陆续迈向老年，加上长者死亡率持续下降。目前全球长者增长速度为每月87万，10年后，每月将有190万人同时庆祝65岁生日。
报告指出，由于劳动及退休人口比例改变，退休时间在整个人生的比重增加，将加重对退休保障制度的压力。老人病如心脏病、癌症等，亦会大大增加社会医疗开支。此外，出生率下降令照顾长者的家庭成员减少，“将来会出现70岁的”孩子“照顾100岁的父母，这对照顾者而言是极大的压力。”
无论发达还是发展中国家，都难免受人口老化影响，报告引用2006年欧盟研究指出，假如没足够政策配合，到2030年，人口老化将令欧盟经济增长速度减慢一半。但作者认为，假如政府及商界能推出相应措施，或许能将人口老化转变为经济机遇。
本篇文章来源于 科技网www.stdaily.com
原文链接：http://www.stdaily.com/kjrb/content/2009-07/24/content_86451.htm
=> aging is an important mega trend in the world, and it affect almost everything in our life and the world economy, also investment strategy!!
http://www.stdaily.com 2009年07月24日 来源： 科技日报 作者：
再过40年，全球人口老化可能会颠覆世人对“中年”、“长者”的定义。据香港《文汇报》21日报道，美国人口调查局最新研究指出，目前全球65岁以上老人的增长速度是历来最快。到2050年，全球达“期颐之年”(100岁)的人瑞将迫近600万人；在2017年，全球65岁以上老人数目更将超越5岁以下小童，是人类有史以来的首次。
在古时，活过“期颐之年”几乎是梦想，但目前全球年过100岁的人口，已由1950年的数千急增至34万，到本世纪中更会增加近20倍，至600万人，当中尤以美国及日本最多百岁人瑞。届时日本人口年龄中位数将由37岁急升至55岁，“中年”年龄层或须重新定义。
截至2008年中，全球65岁以上长者人口约5.06亿。美国人口调查局预计，到2040年，数字将升至13亿，占届时全球总人口的14%。当中，年过80的“最老”一群更会急增133%，为子孙一代带来沉重压力。
撰写报告的人口调查员何万及金塞拉指出，长者人口急增的主因是战后婴儿潮陆续迈向老年，加上长者死亡率持续下降。目前全球长者增长速度为每月87万，10年后，每月将有190万人同时庆祝65岁生日。
报告指出，由于劳动及退休人口比例改变，退休时间在整个人生的比重增加，将加重对退休保障制度的压力。老人病如心脏病、癌症等，亦会大大增加社会医疗开支。此外，出生率下降令照顾长者的家庭成员减少，“将来会出现70岁的”孩子“照顾100岁的父母，这对照顾者而言是极大的压力。”
无论发达还是发展中国家，都难免受人口老化影响，报告引用2006年欧盟研究指出，假如没足够政策配合，到2030年，人口老化将令欧盟经济增长速度减慢一半。但作者认为，假如政府及商界能推出相应措施，或许能将人口老化转变为经济机遇。
本篇文章来源于 科技网www.stdaily.com
原文链接：http://www.stdaily.com/kjrb/content/2009-07/24/content_86451.htm
=> aging is an important mega trend in the world, and it affect almost everything in our life and the world economy, also investment strategy!!
10.06.2009
HSBC's economic outlook v2
=> I really don't understand how can such huge corporation estimate outlook that is so contradicting between its own senior management. It makes me concern whether I should continue to invest in HSBC or not.
I think I should at least lower my holding in HSBC.
匯控 (0005-HK；HBC-US) 主席葛霖昨天表示，全球經濟已見底，但仍需要保持審慎。他指目前巿場仍存 有不少不明朗因素和風險，預料明年歐美經濟仍未見起 色。不過，新興市場將帶動全球經濟復甦，香港經濟的 最壞時間已過去，因此將明年香港的 GDP 增長預測由 2.4% 調高至 3.8% 。
葛霖昨天接受 Bloomberg (彭博) 訪問時認為，全 球經濟已經見底，但有理由保持審慎。他表示，歐美經 濟於 2010 年仍未見起色，目前巿場上仍存在很多不明 朗的因素和風險，不希望各國政府過早退出刺激措施。 若各國像 30 年代般迅速解除刺激措施，經濟可能很快 進入新一輪跌勢，令各國經濟陷入更大困境。
I think I should at least lower my holding in HSBC.
匯控 (0005-HK；HBC-US) 主席葛霖昨天表示，全球經濟已見底，但仍需要保持審慎。他指目前巿場仍存 有不少不明朗因素和風險，預料明年歐美經濟仍未見起 色。不過，新興市場將帶動全球經濟復甦，香港經濟的 最壞時間已過去，因此將明年香港的 GDP 增長預測由 2.4% 調高至 3.8% 。
葛霖表示，隨著全球經濟恢復動力，集團計劃未來 集中投資新興巿場，以確保業務可持續增長。
礇豐銀行昨發布「匯豐新興市場指數 (EMI) 」，匯 豐集團首席經濟師簡世勛指出，儘管美國仍是不少新興 市場國家的主要貿易伙伴，但其重要地位已大不如前， 新興經濟體之間貿易往來日益頻繁，一些新興經濟體的 強勁需求使另一些新興經濟體的出口值大獲提升，未來 新興市場勢必主導世界經濟。
他預期，新興市場來年經濟增速將達到 6% ，而發 達地區僅有 1.8% 。
礇匯豐 EMI 顯示，第 3 季 EMI 從第 2 季的 50.7 升至 55.3 ，屬新興市場製造業及服務業產出的最強勁 季度增長。該指數去年最後一季跌至歷史低位 43.8 ， 今年首季微升至 44.3 ，指數若低於 50 顯示有關季度 的產出有所萎縮，若高於 50 則表示生產出現擴張。
對於集團行政總裁紀勤日前預計未來數月經濟可能 出現第 2 次滑坡，匯豐亞太區高級經濟師范力民表示 ，雖然資產價格上升，令新興市場面對通脹壓力，但料 新興市場短期內並無通脹的風險，出現「雙底衰退」的 機會亦不大。不過他補充，已發現國家特別是金融海嘯 源頭的歐美地區，則會受到較大的影響。
至於內地方面，礇豐中國首席經濟師屈宏斌表示， 內地通縮情況將於年底完結， CPI 亦會由負數轉為正 數，但亦不足以產生通脹壓力，並指只要通膨低於 3% ，仍屬可控範圍之內。他指內地要加息除本身有強勁經 濟復甦外，亦需要環球經濟強勁增長配合。
屈宏斌指出，全球經濟在明年首季前並未見可全面 復甦，因此預料內地於今年底至明年首季前不會有加息 或收緊貨幣政策。他亦同時估計，內地今年下半年經濟 增長可達 9% ，明年更可達 9.5% 。而香港方面，由於 受惠內地出口帶動，因此將明年經濟增長率由預先估計 的 2.4% 上調至 3.8% ，並相信香港經濟最壞的時間已 過去。
針對澳洲提早加息 0.25% ，范力民表示對此感到 意外，並指相信其他亞洲新興國家會陸續跟從，估計下 一個加息的亞洲國家會是韓國或台灣。匯豐執行董事王 冬勝表示，澳洲大部分出口由內地購入，因此帶動該國 快速復甦。他指，澳洲加息決定於新興市場有帶頭作用 ，相信其他新興市場亦會慢慢上調息率，但仍需數月時 間。
「匯豐新興市場指數 (EMI) 」集中監察 13 個國家 及地區，包括「金磚四國」，巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中 國，台灣、韓國、土耳其、新加坡、波蘭、南非、墨西 哥和以色列等，特別關注全球高速發展的新興市場逾 5000 間公司的經營狀況。
險資准入樓市
《大行報告》今年2月修定通過之新《保險法》明日(1日)生效，保險資金獲准投資「不動 產」。美林報告指，細則至10月底才公布，全城尤其關注險資准入樓市比例，而目前市場估計約8%-15%，但該行相信實際影響會低過市場預期，認為短期險 商不會向物業市場注入資金，反而會將部份固定資產歸類「投資資產」，釋放未確認收益，賬面值或內涵值有可能因而投升，平安信託及國 壽<02628.hk>有機會受惠，財險<02328.hk>得益最少。
而據中央財經大學保險學院教授郝演蘇估計，資金進入比例5%-8%，上限10%，按6月止保險業總資產3.71萬億人民幣計，即涉資近2000-3000億人民幣。
此外，新政策同時提高投保人權利，以新產品取替原有產品。美林表示，因險商停售舊產品前提價，故可帶動9月及10月份保費收入。(de/a)
In long run, this is good. Manulife has 4% of its total assets invested in Real Estate, I think China's life insurance companies will be about the same.
而據中央財經大學保險學院教授郝演蘇估計，資金進入比例5%-8%，上限10%，按6月止保險業總資產3.71萬億人民幣計，即涉資近2000-3000億人民幣。
此外，新政策同時提高投保人權利，以新產品取替原有產品。美林表示，因險商停售舊產品前提價，故可帶動9月及10月份保費收入。(de/a)
In long run, this is good. Manulife has 4% of its total assets invested in Real Estate, I think China's life insurance companies will be about the same.
3rd quarter Press Releases
Investors (at least Bilibala & Wall Streets) will focus on 3rd quarter corporation results as well as the 2010 Outlook.
Here are the press release dates on some of Bilibala's holdings:
10/13/09 Johnson & Johnson
10/15/09 Google Inc
10/16/09 General Electric
10/21/09 Wells Fargo
10/22/09 McDonald's Corp
10/27/09 Rogers Communication
10/28/09 Conoco Phillips
10/29/09 Waste Management
10/29/09 Procter & Gamble
11/05/09 Manulife Financial
11/05/09 Thomson Reuters
11/12/09 AEGON N.V.
12/03/09 TD Bank
12/17/09 Federal Express
Here are the press release dates on some of Bilibala's holdings:
10/13/09 Johnson & Johnson
10/15/09 Google Inc
10/16/09 General Electric
10/21/09 Wells Fargo
10/22/09 McDonald's Corp
10/27/09 Rogers Communication
10/28/09 Conoco Phillips
10/29/09 Waste Management
10/29/09 Procter & Gamble
11/05/09 Manulife Financial
11/05/09 Thomson Reuters
11/12/09 AEGON N.V.
12/03/09 TD Bank
12/17/09 Federal Express
a sucessful story about buy & hold
a sucessful story about buy & hold, worth to re-consider our investment approach.
《蘋果日報》2008/06/03
股神巴菲特用價值投資法，長揸好股，其實，香港都有好多投資者係佢信徒，仲可以話係青出於藍。好似港商劉元生，手持內房股萬科股票17年，由當初市值約400萬人仔(下同)，暴升到今時今日賬面值約16億，升近400倍，比起巴菲特最掂隻華盛頓郵報，30年都係升得128倍，睇怕今勻股神都要寫個「服」字。
與王石早有淵源王石：唔知你有眼光定我有實力，總之有錢齊齊搵啦﹗講起呢位散戶股神，早響91年萬科A股上市前已經入股萬科，話說王石未創辦萬科之前，同劉元生已經係生意拍檔，88年尾，未上市的萬科為籌集資金，以每股一蚊人仔發行2800萬股，劉元生見銷情唔係咁好，於是幫對方認購360萬股，成本大概400萬銀。萬科91年1月29日深交所上市，當時報14.58人仔，其後劉元生仲有增持萬科，據萬科資料，劉元生持有8253萬股，以噚日萬科收市價計，市值近16億人仔。難怪內地傳媒封佢做「超級散戶」，3月舉行萬科07年報告網上說明會，有萬科小股東要求親眼見一見偶像王石，同股東劉元生。
上市後不斷增持據報道，劉元生家陣係萬科最大個人股東，王石有乜大動作，之前都會主動問佢意見。除同王石熟絡，劉元生同萬科另一董事陳志裕應該都幾熟，因為據《提問萬科》一書介紹，當年王石做錄像機生意時，係由劉元生仁達國際(香港)供應日本貨源，而據公司註冊處資料，呢家公司仲有3位董事，其中一位正係陳志裕。劉元生手持內房股萬科股票17年，由當初市值約400萬人仔，暴升到今時今日賬面值約16億，升近400倍。
《蘋果日報》2008/06/03
股神巴菲特用價值投資法，長揸好股，其實，香港都有好多投資者係佢信徒，仲可以話係青出於藍。好似港商劉元生，手持內房股萬科股票17年，由當初市值約400萬人仔(下同)，暴升到今時今日賬面值約16億，升近400倍，比起巴菲特最掂隻華盛頓郵報，30年都係升得128倍，睇怕今勻股神都要寫個「服」字。
與王石早有淵源王石：唔知你有眼光定我有實力，總之有錢齊齊搵啦﹗講起呢位散戶股神，早響91年萬科A股上市前已經入股萬科，話說王石未創辦萬科之前，同劉元生已經係生意拍檔，88年尾，未上市的萬科為籌集資金，以每股一蚊人仔發行2800萬股，劉元生見銷情唔係咁好，於是幫對方認購360萬股，成本大概400萬銀。萬科91年1月29日深交所上市，當時報14.58人仔，其後劉元生仲有增持萬科，據萬科資料，劉元生持有8253萬股，以噚日萬科收市價計，市值近16億人仔。難怪內地傳媒封佢做「超級散戶」，3月舉行萬科07年報告網上說明會，有萬科小股東要求親眼見一見偶像王石，同股東劉元生。
上市後不斷增持據報道，劉元生家陣係萬科最大個人股東，王石有乜大動作，之前都會主動問佢意見。除同王石熟絡，劉元生同萬科另一董事陳志裕應該都幾熟，因為據《提問萬科》一書介紹，當年王石做錄像機生意時，係由劉元生仁達國際(香港)供應日本貨源，而據公司註冊處資料，呢家公司仲有3位董事，其中一位正係陳志裕。劉元生手持內房股萬科股票17年，由當初市值約400萬人仔，暴升到今時今日賬面值約16億，升近400倍。
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