Procter & Gamble reaffirms Q1 EPS, FY10 EPS and revs guidance; sees return to organic sales growth in second quarter Co reaffirms guidance for Q1 (Sep), sees EPS of $0.95-1.00 vs. $0.97 First Call consensus; co also sees organic sales down 7-10% YoY vs -9.9% consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY10 (Jun), sees EPS of $3.65-3.80, excluding the sale of its Pharma biz, vs. $3.68 consensus; co also reaffirms its organic sales outlook of up 1-3% vs the -0.6% consensus. The co also stated it expects to return to organic sales growth in the October - December quarter compared to prior year levels, following two quarters of organic sales declines.
"We clearly see that we are approaching an inflection point in P&G's organic sales trends. The innovations we are launching and the investments we are making are having an impact in the market. In addition, comparisons to prior year results will get easier as we move into the second quarter."
Co also provided guidanec including the sales of the Pharmaceutical biz; it now sees FY10 EPS of $3.99-4.12. This includes a one-time net increase in earnings of $0.44 per share from the sale of the Pharmaceutical business, which will be partially offset by $0.10 to $0.12 per share of earnings dilution related to the transaction.
Briefing.com is the leading Internet provider of live market analysis for U.S. Stock, U.S. Bond, and world FX market participants.
Bilibala comments:
Great!! Looks like the consumer staple sector has started the recovery journey. Let's see whether the actual will follow through according to Management's expectations.
9.09.2009
25 Insightful Investment Sayings from Warren Buffett
Posted by: gurufocus (IP Logged)
Date: September 8, 2009 08:59PM
In no particular order, here are 25 insightful investment sayings from legendary investor Warren Buffett:
- "Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1"
- "In a bull market, one must avoid the error of the preening duck that quacks boastfully after a torrential rainstorm, thinking that its paddling skills have caused it to rise in the world. A right-thinking duck would instead compare its position after the downpour to that of the other ducks on the pond."
- "The fact that people will be full of greed, fear or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable."
- "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."
- "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
- "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is usually the reputation of the business that remains intact."
- “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”
- "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
- "If I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I'd be fully invested. Anyone who says that size does not hurt investment performance is selling. The highest rates of return I've ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts then. It's a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that."
- "Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."
- "I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will."
- "Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."
- "I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over."
- "If a business does well, the stock eventually follows."
- "Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it."
- "Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well."
- "The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities — that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future — will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
- "Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."
- "Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results."
- "Investors making purchases in an overheated market need to recognize that it may often take an extended period for the value of even an outstanding company to catch up with the price they paid."
- "I like to go for cinches. I like to shoot fish in a barrel. But I like to do it after the water has run out."
- "We don’t get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we’ll wait, we’ll wait indefinitely."
- "In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield."
- "The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth."
- "Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago."
Complied by Dah Hui Lau (David
9.08.2009
Google Monoply
聯合新聞網 2009/09/09
歷史悠久的經典遊戲「大富翁」將出現新花樣，玩具生產商「孩之寶」和搜尋網站Google合作，以Google地圖當做遊戲板，讓玩家在全球各大城市數百萬條真實街道上玩遊戲，過過當房地產大亨的癮。
歷史悠久的經典遊戲「大富翁」將出現新花樣，玩具生產商「孩之寶」和搜尋網站Google合作，以Google地圖當做遊戲板，讓玩家在全球各大城市數百萬條真實街道上玩遊戲，過過當房地產大亨的癮。
「大富翁城市街景」（Monopoly City Streets）將在九日上線，讓全球玩家對戰，看誰能成為虛擬世界最有錢的房地產大亨。全球遊戲將免費試玩四個月，玩家可獲三百萬元大富翁幣做資本，根據Google地圖買地置產。
線上版與傳統大富翁遊戲不同之處，是除了房屋和酒店外，玩家也可興建摩天大廈、足球場和其他建築物收租金。
若想收購的街道已被買走，也別失望，只要向地主出價，七天內若未得到回應，收購就自動成立。所以新遊戲主要精神是「每天都要上線」！
想買美國首都華盛頓的賓州大道嗎？沒問題，只要兩百萬大富翁幣，就可以連白宮一併買下。而英國首相府所在的唐寧街，整條街只要廿三．一萬元。
摩天大樓日租一億元，普通房屋則是五萬元，逐日自動支付。玩家還可使用「機會卡」，在對手的地盤興建監獄、垃圾場或汙水處理廠搞破壞，降低地主的租金，不過遊戲也會告知玩家破壞者的身分，以示公平。
「孩之寶」表示，玩家可以享受建立虛擬王國的樂趣，忘掉不景氣的現實。
【聯合報╱編譯朱小明、潘淑婷／綜合報導】
Reitmans Canada annouces new CFO
MONTREAL, Sept. 8 /CNW Telbec/ - Reitmans (Canada) Limited announced
today the retirement of Douglas Deruchie, CA as Vice-President Finance and
Chief Financial Officer of the Company effective September 30, 2009. Eric
Williams, CA, Vice-President and Treasurer of Reitmans, has been appointed as
the new Vice-President Finance and Chief Financial Officer of the Company
effective September 30, 2009.
%SEDAR: 00002316EF
For further information: Jeremy H. Reitman, President, (514) 385-2630;
www.reitmans.ca
Biggest winning company during the crisis - HSBC & Brekshire Hathaway
Tue Sep 8, 2009 9:01am EDT
By Martin de Sa'Pinto
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressReleasesMolt/idUSTRE5872ZR20090908
ZURICH (Reuters) - Global banking giant HSBC and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway should be paying staff the biggest bonuses, according to a new bonus model from a management consultant.
The two groups top a list of financial institutions measured by the new method from consulting firm Stern Stewart, as the industry seeks to address concerns over the short-termism partly blamed for sparking a global banking meltdown.
Erik Stern, managing director of the firm, is trying to get financial firms to adopt his Relative Wealth Added (RWA) model to measure bonuses, saying it can align executive and shareholder interests.
"Many managers were paid especially well because markets were rising, including those whose firms performed worse than peers. They had good fortune, were they managers of premier league clubs, they would probably have been fired," Stern told Reuters in an interview.
Stern's company is known for its widely-used concept of Economic Value Added (EVA), which it says turns a firm's accounting book value into economic book value, and measures whether shareholder value has been created.
The EVA model, credited by many for a turnaround at Coca Cola, forms the basis of the new calculation, RWA.
Using its new calculation, Stern identifies HSBC and Berkshire Hathaway among the worst performers during the economic expansion between 2002 and 2007, but the best two performers since.
They were also among the best over the whole 2002-2009 cycle, alongside players like Goldman Sachs. The worst performers were Citigroup and AIG, which ranked near the bottom in both the expansion and contraction phases of the business cycle.
Companies can encourage executives to take only those risks that align the long-term corporate interest with that of investors, by using the right measure of long-term performance and using the right compensation structure, Stern said.
"For example, in the case of options awards, most of these should begin to vest after a number of years, with no short term vesting," Stern said.
"If bonuses are paid in shares, executives should have to hold some of them until after they leave the company, otherwise they may take decisions that boost profits and their bonuses in the short term but may damage the company when they are gone."
(Editing by Joel Dimmock and Elaine Hardcastle)
Bilibala comments:
During the worse situation, and specially in the worse situation, we can tell which company is good and which is bad.
9.04.2009
Moody's outlook
By Kerry Grace Benn DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of Moody's Corp. (MCO) and McGraw-Hill Cos. (MHP) remain under a cloud after bad news this week, though analysts say they see the slide as a buying opportunity.
The shares' decline comes after an unfavorable court ruling this week versus the companies' ratings agencies and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA) pared its stake in Moody's for the second time since late July.
Analysts at Piper Jaffray said in a note to clients that the controversy could be an opportunity, adding their enthusiasm for the shares of both companies was based on rebounding credit-market issuance volumes, which drive revenue and earnings; easing regulatory worries; their belief that litigation risk "will prove manageable" and appealing valuations.
Moody's shares were up 10 cents at $24.36 in recent trading after losing 7.1% Thursday, while McGraw-Hill's were up 22 cents at $29.23 after dropping 10% Thursday. In the last month, the stocks are off 2.9% and 6%, respectively.
A federal judge ruled the ratings agencies, Moody's Investors Service and McGraw-Hill's Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, must defend a lawsuit over the collapse of a $5.86 billion structured investment vehicle in 2007. The judge threw out 10 of the 11 claims against the companies.
The firms had long argued that their ratings of securities were constitutionally protected opinion. But a federal judge ruled Wednesday that the ratings of certain securities - those that are distributed to a limited number of investors - don't deserve the same free-speech protection as more general ratings of corporate bonds that were widely disseminated.
The ruling is expected to spur more lawsuits and could apply to structured investment vehicles once valued as high as $400 billion.
Benchmark Co. analyst Edward Atorino said it's unfortunate the ruling happened, as business is getting better faster than expected in terms of new bond issuance for the two ratings agencies. But one claim going forward "really casts a pall over the stocks," he said.
Atorino said the companies in the past have always managed to successfully defend themselves against all kinds of charges, adding he thinks it's pretty difficult to prove fraud in cases like this one. They have been able to convince courts and juries that they provide opinions and aren't telling people to buy or predicting value, he said.
In a separate note, Piper Jaffray said that contrary to the market's negative response, "we believe the decision has little implication for the eventual outcome of the case or the ability of the rating agencies to rely on freedom-of-speech defense in ongoing litigation." The firm reiterated its overweight rating on both companies and said it would use the weakness to buy shares.
John Eade, an analyst at Argus Research Co. who only covers McGraw-Hill, said he thinks McGraw-Hill and Moody's will likely win the cases for First Amendment reasons and because the business "has been basically approved by Congress and integrated into the financial system over the past few decades to the point where certain pension funds are required to buy rated bonds."
He added he doesn't think the companies will be found guilty, but said the business model could change in two ways - first with the addition of new competitors if the government makes it easier for firms to achieve the Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization status required to become a ratings agency, giving investors more choice.
The second possible change could be asking investment managers to pay for the ratings service - if that occurred, Eade said, the investors might have a better case to sue if they thought they had gotten bad advice. "I don't know how the government could mandate that," he said.
Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway sold 794,388 Moody's shares this week, or about 0.3% of the company's outstanding shares, at prices from $26.30 to $27.74. Buffett has weathered criticism in the past year for his stake in Moody's, because Moody's Investors Service is one of the ratings agencies that has been criticized for the top grades it had issued to mortgage-backed securities that later underperformed.
Buffett cut his Moody's stake by 8 million shares in mid-July, reducing his stake to about 40 million shares. He said at the time that he might decide to sell more shares.
-By Kerry Grace Benn, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2353; kerry.benn@dowjones.com
Bilibala comments:
After the financial crisis, the market actually need more (instead of less) consultant and credit rating service to make sure an particular fixed income product or an corpration should be.
So Moody and McGraw-Hill should be able to get more business than ever in future.
However, in short term, given the financial market is still in the "de-leveaging" stage (at least less underwriting activities is done.) So may be for the next few years, revenue growth will still under pressure.
Warren Buffett's move is understandable, he reduce sake in Moody down below 20% so that he doesn't have to use equity method to report Moody's earning in Berkshire Hathaway's book. It will help him to smooth the bottom line to be less volatile.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of Moody's Corp. (MCO) and McGraw-Hill Cos. (MHP) remain under a cloud after bad news this week, though analysts say they see the slide as a buying opportunity.
The shares' decline comes after an unfavorable court ruling this week versus the companies' ratings agencies and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA) pared its stake in Moody's for the second time since late July.
Analysts at Piper Jaffray said in a note to clients that the controversy could be an opportunity, adding their enthusiasm for the shares of both companies was based on rebounding credit-market issuance volumes, which drive revenue and earnings; easing regulatory worries; their belief that litigation risk "will prove manageable" and appealing valuations.
Moody's shares were up 10 cents at $24.36 in recent trading after losing 7.1% Thursday, while McGraw-Hill's were up 22 cents at $29.23 after dropping 10% Thursday. In the last month, the stocks are off 2.9% and 6%, respectively.
A federal judge ruled the ratings agencies, Moody's Investors Service and McGraw-Hill's Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, must defend a lawsuit over the collapse of a $5.86 billion structured investment vehicle in 2007. The judge threw out 10 of the 11 claims against the companies.
The firms had long argued that their ratings of securities were constitutionally protected opinion. But a federal judge ruled Wednesday that the ratings of certain securities - those that are distributed to a limited number of investors - don't deserve the same free-speech protection as more general ratings of corporate bonds that were widely disseminated.
The ruling is expected to spur more lawsuits and could apply to structured investment vehicles once valued as high as $400 billion.
Benchmark Co. analyst Edward Atorino said it's unfortunate the ruling happened, as business is getting better faster than expected in terms of new bond issuance for the two ratings agencies. But one claim going forward "really casts a pall over the stocks," he said.
Atorino said the companies in the past have always managed to successfully defend themselves against all kinds of charges, adding he thinks it's pretty difficult to prove fraud in cases like this one. They have been able to convince courts and juries that they provide opinions and aren't telling people to buy or predicting value, he said.
In a separate note, Piper Jaffray said that contrary to the market's negative response, "we believe the decision has little implication for the eventual outcome of the case or the ability of the rating agencies to rely on freedom-of-speech defense in ongoing litigation." The firm reiterated its overweight rating on both companies and said it would use the weakness to buy shares.
John Eade, an analyst at Argus Research Co. who only covers McGraw-Hill, said he thinks McGraw-Hill and Moody's will likely win the cases for First Amendment reasons and because the business "has been basically approved by Congress and integrated into the financial system over the past few decades to the point where certain pension funds are required to buy rated bonds."
He added he doesn't think the companies will be found guilty, but said the business model could change in two ways - first with the addition of new competitors if the government makes it easier for firms to achieve the Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization status required to become a ratings agency, giving investors more choice.
The second possible change could be asking investment managers to pay for the ratings service - if that occurred, Eade said, the investors might have a better case to sue if they thought they had gotten bad advice. "I don't know how the government could mandate that," he said.
Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway sold 794,388 Moody's shares this week, or about 0.3% of the company's outstanding shares, at prices from $26.30 to $27.74. Buffett has weathered criticism in the past year for his stake in Moody's, because Moody's Investors Service is one of the ratings agencies that has been criticized for the top grades it had issued to mortgage-backed securities that later underperformed.
Buffett cut his Moody's stake by 8 million shares in mid-July, reducing his stake to about 40 million shares. He said at the time that he might decide to sell more shares.
-By Kerry Grace Benn, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2353; kerry.benn@dowjones.com
Bilibala comments:
After the financial crisis, the market actually need more (instead of less) consultant and credit rating service to make sure an particular fixed income product or an corpration should be.
So Moody and McGraw-Hill should be able to get more business than ever in future.
However, in short term, given the financial market is still in the "de-leveaging" stage (at least less underwriting activities is done.) So may be for the next few years, revenue growth will still under pressure.
Warren Buffett's move is understandable, he reduce sake in Moody down below 20% so that he doesn't have to use equity method to report Moody's earning in Berkshire Hathaway's book. It will help him to smooth the bottom line to be less volatile.
Econ Data 09 w36
- 美國失業率
- 加拿大大選
- 中國 QFII 對股市影響
- 中國人壽09年第二季
USA
Overall
- 加拿大大選
- 中國 QFII 對股市影響
- 中國人壽09年第二季
USA
Overall
- 2Q revised productivity up to +6.6% from +6.4% in 1st draft (better than expect, +6.4%)
- Aug auto sales up to 5.3M from 4.2M in Jul & Aug truck sales up to 4.9M from 4.2M in Jul. Thanks to the Cash for Clucker program that government offer $4,500 for auto buyers who trade in their 2nd hand cars
- Aug ISM index up to 52.9 from 48.9 in Jul (better, 50.5), again, above 50 means out of recession from a technical point of view
- Aug ISM Service up to 48.4 from 46.4 in Jul (better, 48.0)
- Jul factory orders up to +1.3% from +0.9% in Jun (worse, +2.2%)
- Jul pending home sales down to +3.2% from +3.6% in Jun (better, +1.5%)
- Aug unemployment rate up to 9.7% from 9.4% in Jul (worse, 9.5%)
- Aug non-fram payroll pos up to -216k from -276k in Jul (inline, -230k)
- Aug ADP employment up to -298k from -360k (worse, -250k)
- 08/29 initial jobless claim down to 570k from 574k (worse, 564k)
Canada
- Jun GDP up to +0.1% M/M from -0.5% M/M in May
- Aug unemployment rate up to 8.7% from 8.6% in Jul
- Aug net change in employment up to +27.1 from -44.5 in Jul, looks like a catch up to me, i want to see the trend in Sep & Oct before I can confirm the unemployment situation has already touch the peak
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