Life Term Strategies

1. Huge Gains in Long Term
- Receive significant capital gains
- by investing in corporations
- (with wide economic moat & average peers’ net margin)
- In very very long term

2. Strong Periodic Cash Flow
- Maintain self-sufficient monthly cash flow
- Through dividend, gains on derivative & short term trading
- For re-investment to item # 1 mentioned above

3. Mind for Risk Management
- Ensure strong cash position
- Maintain low risk by continue monitor, analyze & feel:
economic trend & environment,
market condition & investors emotion
corporate performance & outlook
asset allocation & direction

4. Be a holy Christian investor:
- Invest in wisdom & varies ways, but consistent & not over nor under of what the Holy Bible expects a Jesus follower should be
- Keep regular & long term spiritual growth
Continue experience God @ finance market
Aim for life transform opportunities
- Even though it may not teach Billy & Bilibala what stocks to invest nor how to make more, more & more $
Showing posts with label Sector-Info Tech. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sector-Info Tech. Show all posts

4.04.2011

America - 04/01/11

America (52.6% of asset mix) (with net present value in 1 year) 1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY 2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$754.6 BUY 3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY 4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 => US$25.2 HOLD => BUY 5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD 6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update) 7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY (pending to update) · Mar 11 major transactions: switch Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$52.0 to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.3; add Canadian Pacific CA$61.20; sold TransCanada at CA$39.2 · General Electric may get into lawsuit on Japan’s nuclear crisis. So far, analysts think it is very unlikely for GE to have a high contingency loss. On the other hand, given the fact that lots of people rise concern about the security of nuclear power, Bilibala think GE will receive lots of additional orders · government will not and cannot replace all nuclear plant at once, clearer energy to use are wind & solar, which both will benefit GE · in order to improve security & safety, government need to spend more on existing nuclear plant, which will benefit GE as well · Investors rise concerns on the internal control of Berkshire Hathaway on how Warren Buffett handle David Sokol purchase of Lubrizol stocks in Jan 11 just before Berkshire Hathaway announce to acquire it in Mar 11 & took a capital gain of $3M. To me, even Mr Buffett think Sokol did nothing wrong, as a CEO of a well respected giant corporation, the way he managed this issue should be done better by taking action and disclose it earlier. · As some of you hold RIM (Research in Motion), let me spend some time to share my opinion. · 2010 revenue & profit up 33% & 47% to US$19.9B & US$3.4B compare to last year while net margin improved from 16.4% to 17.1% · According to its own outlook, 2011 revenue & profit will up 41% & 22% to US$28.0B & US$4.2B while net margin will fall from 17.1% to 14.8% (with a estimated 2011 market shares in smart phone of about 15%) · Some analysts said RIM will be the next Nortel Network, Bilibala don’t think that will be the case cuz: 1. RIM’s earning growth is strong, above 20% per year, while price over earnings ratio is just 9, in comparison to Nortel’s tiny earnings and over 100 P/E before it fall, they are totally different 2. RIM has no long term debt, while Nortel had tones!! · Yes, RIM’s growth is slowing down, its profit margin is dropping, but given its P/E ratio at 9, PEG ratio of 0.5. I still think RIM should have potential to climb back to CA$70. Even though I won’t recommend a BUY, but for those who are holding it, Bilibala’s suggestion is to hold till release of 1st quarter (around jun 2011), the price should climb back because I think its earnings will beat expectation. · With more information, Bilibala will revised Manulife Financial’s Japan earthquake impact. · Assume 30,000 death, 80% insurance penetration, 8% market shares, CA$0.5M coverage, 80% loss & found & submitted claims, offset with 10% reserve release, the additional losses set up for the event will be CA$0.7B, less 29% tax rate, after tax impact will be CA$0.49B, while equity market rebound, estimate drop in EPS is about CA$0.3. # Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant. · STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30% · BUY btw 15% to 30% · HOLD btw (15%) to 15% · RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

3.28.2011

America - 03/25/11

America (53.6% of asset mix) (with net present value in 1 year) 1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY 2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$754.6 BUY 3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY 4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 HOLD 5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD 6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update) 7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY · Mar 11 major transactions: switch Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$52.0 to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.3; add Canadian Pacific C$61.20; add Manulife (MFC) between C$15.8-C$16.2 · Manulife Financial: no revised adjustment on $1.2B reserve change due to Japan earthquake. Claims cost increase as # of death rise will offset by equity market recovered. The actual reserve # may be lesser. · Research in Motion release its 4q10 earnings, above expectation but lower its 1q11 sales, trigger the shares down 11% on Friday. Its blackberry continue to grow in # of sales, however, to lots of individual customers, Apple & Google are a much better choice. Its Playbook launch too late, again, no one think it will win the battle. On the other hand, the share price is just $55, with P/E ratio lower than 9. Is this a opportunity or not? To Bilibala who has already hold Google, I won’t consider it. # Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant. · STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30% · BUY btw 15% to 30% · HOLD btw (15%) to 15% · RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

1.26.2011

Eric Schmidt expects another 10 years at Google

Bilibala: it is hard to tell the future, but i wish Eric will stay with Google and help it to grow even bigger.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70O2TE20110125?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

(Reuters) - Google's Chief Executive Eric Schmidt said he expected to spend another 10 years at the company, after his surprise handover last week to co-founder Larry Page.

Schmidt, who from April will focus on deals and government outreach as executive chairman, also said the group would hire thousands of people this year, rejecting accusations that it has struggled to keep its best talent from leaving for Facebook and other Silicon Valley rivals.
"I'm very personally excited about my next decade at Google," Schmidt, who oversaw Google's meteoric rise, told the DLD media conference in Munich on Tuesday.

He told Reuters on January 21 that his move was an effort to speed up decision-making.
"In strategy we agree. There's no disagreement," Schmidt said of his relationship with Page, in a news conference following his DLD appearance.

"In character, he's fundamentally a deeper thinker than anybody else," he said. "He sees a few moves deeper than I do."

Schmidt is also set to get a $100 million equity award, his first since joining the company in 2001, which will vest over four years and includes stock units and options.

Google last week reported earnings and revenue that far exceeded expectations.
But while Google has dominated Internet search, it has struggled with social networking and is facing stiff competition from companies like Facebook and Twitter, which are stealing web traffic and perceived to be poaching engineering talent.

Schmidt rejected the notion that Google was losing key people. "Our retention has been actually the same and our turnover has been exactly the same for seven years," he said. "We're going to be hiring many thousands of people this year."

Schmidt said that in his new role he would be able to spend more time on government issues and Google's public image, among other things.

"We've got very complicated government issues, he said, adding however that Google's position in China appeared to be stable for the time being, following a renewal of its license there last June.

Google threatened to pull out of China after a high-profile hacking incident but eventually came to an agreement with the government and now runs a reduced service.

"I think it's stable, he said, before adding: "You never know. It's possible for the government of China to cause us not to work."

Schmidt said Google had considered stopping indexing confidential cables released by WikiLeaks, but had decided to carry on. Some other U.S. organizations have bowed to government pressure to stop cooperating with the controversial site.

"Has Google looked at the appropriateness of indexing WikiLeaks? The answer is yes, and we decided to continue," he said. "Because it's legal."

(Reporting by Georgina Prodhan; Editing by Jane Merriman and Jon Loades-Carter)

1.25.2011

Google 4q10 earning release & management resturcture

Bilibala: I think the management resturcture is more like an annoucement to help the shareholders to have a clear understand about Google's senior management team's role & responsiblities.
4q10 results looks great even assume FX rate are constant.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70I0BX20110121?feedType=nl&feedName=usmorningdigest

Google's Page brings change and questions

Reuters) - Larry Page will need a rare combination of vision and solid management skills when he takes over at Google in April.

One day after Google's surprise announcement that Page would replace Eric Schmidt as chief executive officer, investors and industry insiders are grappling with how the change will affect the world's No.1 Internet search company.

"What's going to change under Larry?" said BGC Partners analyst Colin Gillis, asking the question on the minds of executives from Silicon Valley to New York City.

"In our opinion, Larry is likely to increase investments as a priority. It could be a long-term positive, but short term it's a negative."

The company hopes 38-year-old Page will help streamline decision-making as it tries to deal with tougher competition from Facebook and Twitter.

Within technology circles, the move to replace Eric Schmidt left some wondering if Page can make a successful comeback to the company he helped create during the first dot-com boom. For a list of tech executive departures and hires see: r.reuters.com/pyh67r
"Founder becoming CEO ... Is this like a Steve Jobs returning or a Jerry Yang returning?" tweeted Chris Dixon, a technology veteran who has invested in Skype and Foursquare.
Steve Jobs returned to Apple Inc in the 1990s to save the company he founded. Yahoo Inc's Jerry Yang made a similar comeback, returning to his Internet company during a troubled stretch, but failed to restore its fortunes.

"It is important to note that, although the titles have changed, the core team remains the same ... this new team structure makes a lot of sense and could result in faster decision making," JP Morgan analysts led by Imran Khan said.

Some analysts believe Google's stock could gain another 20 percent from current levels.
Brokerage UBS said it was bullish on Google's long-term prospects and expects the company's focus on its emerging display network business, YouTube, Android and enterprise customers to deliver healthy returns in 2011.

Fourth-quarter operating margins were slightly weaker than expected at 53 percent on higher sales and marketing expenses.

JP Morgan's Khan, who lowered his 2011 operating margin estimates by less than a percentage point to 52.4 percent, said the expenses are necessary to promote future growth.

Evercore Partners, however, said it was still concerned about Facebook's growth trajectory and deepening integration with third party sites. Investors have speculated Facebook could cut into Google's business if advertisers shift to the social network.

Google Inc shares -- which gained 2 percent following Thursday's better-than-expected quarterly results and the announcement of the CEO change -- finished Friday's regular trading session 2.4 percent down at $611.83. The shares of Mountain View, California-based Google have risen 16 percent since Google reported third-quarter results mid-October and are up almost 45 percent from its 52-week low of $433.63 touched in July 2010.

(Reporting by Paul Thomasch in New York, Alexei Oreskovic in San Francisco and Sayantani Ghosh and Mary Meyase in Bangalore; editing by Joyjeet Das, Phil Berlowitz and Andre Grenon)

1.17.2011

Jobs's health to overshadow quarterly Apple sales

Bilibala: a Corporation won't fall cuz of a person, there are many employees quit from Mircosoft, Mircosoft is still here; there are many employees quit from Google, Google is still growing. What about Apple without Steve Jobs? Apple will not fall, however, will it continue growing with new creative, innovative, customer beloved minds & products which in return with high gross margin & huge amount of profits? That's another story.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70G2Y320110118?feedType=nl&feedName=usbeforethebell

(Reuters) - The health of Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs was set to overshadow quarterly sales numbers on Tuesday from the consumer electronics powerhouse, whose iPhone and iPad excited holiday shoppers.

The world's most valuable technology company said on Monday Jobs was taking a medical leave of absence without specifying a return date or detailing his condition.

Apple shares, up 62 percent in the last 12 months, dropped 4.5 percent in premarket trade on Tuesday. The U.S. market was closed on Monday for a holiday. In European trading, shares rose more than 4 percent, regaining some of the 6 percent lost after the announcement on Monday.
Aside from Jobs's health, the company is entering 2011 on a roll, a cash-generating machine with surging sales across its product lines. Wall Street has forecast Apple's quarterly revenue to rise more than 50 percent to $24.4 billion after a bumper holiday shopping season.

James Cordwell, an analyst at London-based Atlantic Equities, said investors were realizing Apple was more than Jobs. "His absence is unlikely to affect the company's performance over the next two years or so give the strong position they have in the market."

Other analysts, however, said Jobs's influence in the company he co-founded could not be overstated, particularly in guiding product development.

"Steve Jobs is seen by the market to be a major force in Apple's strategic direction," said Richard Windsor, global technology specialist at Nomura. "If his pancreatic cancer has returned, one could be quite worried."

Jobs's leave came nearly two years after he took a six-month break to undergo a liver transplant. He also took time off after pancreatic surgery in 2004.

Apple has not dwelt on Jobs's health, and Jobs himself asked for respect for his privacy in a memo to employees made public on Monday.

In Jobs's absence, it will be up to chief operating officer Tim Cook to decide how much to tell investors about the absent chief executive, and what Apple plans to do with its $50 billion-plus pile of cash and investments.

Less of a showman than Jobs, the 50-year old Alabama native was not expected to make any grand pronouncements. Cook is regarded as a safe pair of hands for the company, having stood in for Jobs twice before.

In Asia, tech shares gained, helped by hopes of a recovery in chip prices and expectations that nimble firms may slow the runaway success of Apple after the news on Jobs.

Rivals' hopes could be misplaced, however. "Apple's roadmap is all set and its iPhone 5 is ready to go, leaving little room for competitors to cut into its share," said Bonnie Chang, an analyst at Yuanta Securities in Taipei.

HUGE HOLIDAY SEASON
Apple's advantages are well-documented: the global spread of the iPhone, expected to sell more than 60 million units this year; the rise of the iPad which single-handedly created the tablet computing market; and continued strong growth from the resurgent Mac line of computers.

Wall Street's benchmarks for Apple's fiscal first quarter, which includes the holiday shopping season, are sales of roughly 15.5 million iPhones, 5.5 million iPads and 4 million Mac computers.
After the close of regular trading hours on Tuesday, Apple was expected to report earnings of $5.40 a share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.


According to StarMine's SmartEstimate, which places more weight on recent forecasts by top-rated analysts, Apple should post EPS of $5.47 on revenue of $24.5 billion.


Even so, an out-sized surprise in Apple results has become an article of faith among investors. The company has beaten Wall Street's estimate by an average 29 percent over the past two years, and bested on revenue by 9 percent on average.


"The only surprise in earnings is if there is anything less than glorious news," said Barry Jaruzelski, a partner at consulting firm Booz & Co, last week.

1.11.2011

Tipping point in mobile internet users

Bilibala: i can see a tipping point since mid last year as everyone convert their old cell phone to smart phone. I personally convert mine in Jul last year too and i really have a PC everywhere experience. As users increase there data usage, it should benefit the wireless providers, the phone/tablet manufactures and interest search / gaming / advertising corporation.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70A2JS20110111?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

(Reuters) - Mobile broadband subscriptions are on track to surpass 1 billion in 2011 only months after reaching half a billion, Ericsson said on Tuesday, highlighting a key growth driver for the telecom sector.

"During the course of 2010, a significant milestone in terms of mobile broadband subscriptions was reached as their number surpassed the half-a-billion mark globally," Ericsson, the world's biggest mobile network gear maker, said in a statement.

"Ericsson estimates that this number will double before 2011 ends."

Internet use on-the-go has soared in recent years, driven by cheap laptop computers, tablet computers such as Apple Inc's iPad and smartphones such as the iPhone.

Growing data traffic is seen driving revenue for telecoms operators and leading to increased investment in networks, boosting revenues for gear suppliers like Ericsson.

Asia Pacific is expected to account for the greatest number of subscriptions, around 400 million, followed by North America and western Europe with more than 200 million each, Ericsson said.
The group said that in 2008, mobile internet subscribers totaled around 200 million. By 2015, Ericsson believes mobile broadband subscriptions will top 3.8 billion, indicating the pace of growth is picking up.

The trend has already started boosting operators' revenues. Nordic telecoms firms TeliaSonera, Telenor and Tele2 all pointed to rising smartphone and mobile internet use as helping earnings last year.

Network providers like Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks and China's Huawei hope demand for on-line gaming, video streaming and watching TV will push operators to upgrade networks to boost capacity and speed.

(Reporting by Simon Johnson; Editing by David Holmes)

1.06.2011

Let's face it

Bilibala: Facebook is a great social network site, thx to it, i found all my primary & high school friends. In terms of an investment, will it be too high to price this company at $50B?

The answer is unknown. The issue rely on whether Facebook can generate enough sales growth & able to increase profit margin from almost zero to say 20%.
During Google's IPO, it was priced at $52B while its revenue is about $3.2B. Price per sales was at 16.5 which is 33% more "attractive" than Facebook, its sales grows 642% from 2004 to 2009 while gross margin up from 20.1% to 35.1%.

If Facebook can do a similar great job, i guess it is worth to invest.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7055A520110106?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

(Reuters) - Remember Webvan? The online grocer, whose initial public offering in March 2000 was among the most hotly anticipated during the dot-com boom, is now viewed as one of the greatest disasters of the era.

Fast forward 11 years and the feeding frenzy around Facebook and its exponentially expanding valuations are conjuring fears of a Bubble 2.0.

Goldman Sachs bankers have offered their private wealth clients less than a week to decide whether they want to hand over $2 million apiece for a sliver of the Web darling du jour: Facebook at a $50 billion valuation.

For one Goldman client, who was expecting a 100-page financial document on Facebook to be hand-delivered on Thursday, hours before the deadline to invest in the company -- the whole thing "felt a bit like 1999."

Thanks to Goldman Sachs' latest cash infusion of about $450 million with a commitment to raise another $1.5 billion, Facebook has become the lightning rod for debate over whether these new Internet hotshots possess the profit-generating muscles to justify Wall Street's unforgiving expectations.

Twitter and Groupon, an online coupons site considered by some as the fastest growing company in Web history, are also mulling plans for IPOs well ahead of Facebook's potential offering at the end of 2012, investment bankers have told Reuters.

LinkedIn is wasting no time. The social network for professionals, with 85 million members, has hired bankers to go public this year.

For Facebook, which generated about $2 billion in revenue in 2010, according to media reports, the $50 billion valuation means investors have awarded it a multiple of 25 times sales, compared with a nine-times multiple for Google, and Amazon.com's 2.5-times multiple.

Facebook generates $4 per user, compared with Google's $24 per user and Yahoo's $8 per user, according to a recent report by JPMorgan.

All that makes Facebook look expensive in the eyes of investors who measure businesses using traditional financial yardsticks, said Ken Sawyer, the managing director of venture capital firm Saints Capital, which owns shares of Facebook.

Investors will need to look past existing financial returns to focus on the company's business-transforming potential.

"It depends on your view of the world," said Sawyer. "If you believe that the ability to leverage this social network fabric will change the way companies acquire customers, then the valuation looks cheap."

Just as Google's search advertisements revolutionized the way businesses reach customers, Facebook's audience of a half-a-billion members has allowed companies like social gaming service Zynga and online dating service Zoosk to sign-up tens of millions of customers of their own in record time, Sawyer said.

As Facebook devises more ways to make money from that capability, such as by taking a cut of transactions made by other companies on its platform, the opportunity could be substantial, he said.

GLOBAL PHENOMENON
Facebook, born as a Harvard dorm-room project to help students to stay connected, has evolved into a global phenomenon, whose users include nearly as many people over 45 years of age as it does people under 24 years old.

In 2010, Facebook displaced Google as the most visited website in the United States, and nearly one out of every four graphical display ads viewed in the United States in the third quarter was on Facebook's website, according to analytics firm comScore.

Other young social networking businesses are experiencing similar growth.

Twitter, the microblogging service that has become an indispensable tool for celebrities and politicians to connect with fans, now counts more than 175 million users and fetched a $3.7 billion valuation in a recent round of venture capital funding.

Online coupon service Groupon recently announced plans to raise up to $950 million, implying a valuation that one research firm estimated could be as high $7.8 billion.

Premium valuations for top-tier players like Facebook and Groupon are usually worth it, wrote Google "developer advocate" Don Dodge in a widely read blog post on Tuesday. The potential for a bubble comes when investors bid up prices for third-tier companies, whose business prospects aren't as solid, he wrote.

Unlike in the late 1990s, shares of today's Web sensations are privately held and not available to the general public. But a growing secondary market has developed in which investors meeting certain criteria, such as minimum net worth, can buy and sell shares.

Goldman Sachs plans to raise up to $1.5 billion to invest in Facebook through a special purpose investment vehicle marketed to its private wealth management customers.

Such trading in companies that are not required to provide investors with the same kind of detailed financial reports and updates as public companies is raising alarms.

"It feels a little irrationally exuberant with some of these transactions, some of these values, particularly given the level of disclosure," said Robert Ackerman, the founder of early-stage venture capital firm Allegis Capital.

"Maybe with Facebook that's well placed," he said, "but what about all the other companies that are going to ride on Facebook's coat-tails."

The laws of gravity are also different in the private markets in which the new generation of Web superstars trade.

Because there's no way to short shares of private companies, the shares are subject to upward pressure but not downward pressure, noted BGC Financial analyst Colin Gillis.
"There's no counterbalance," he said.

(Additional reporting by Matthew Goldstein in New York; Editing by Kenneth Li and Steve Orlofsky)

RIM announces 4G PlayBook tablet

Bilibala: Apple 1st, then Google & Samsung was in, follow by RIM, Dell & Toshiba. I think the market is big enough to have healthy competition & everyone can make some profit out of it.

As a consumer, I can have a laptop & a tablet, there is no conflict between the two because it fit for 2 different purposes - laptop serves @ at home or at office, tablet serves on the way.



http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7050VJ20110106?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

Corporate interest in Research in Motion's new tablet was "massive," the company said, as it announced plans to launch a 4G version of the device this summer with Sprint Nextel.
RIM for the first time on Wednesday provided a hands-on demonstration of the PlayBook, a seven-inch touchscreen tablet that will go head-to-head with Apple's iPad when the Wi-Fi-only version ships, likely in March.

"In large companies, they're talking deployment in the tens of thousands, right off the bat," said Jeff McDowell, senior vice president of enterprise and platform marketing for RIM.
He said corporations are viewing the PlayBook as a tool as essential to employees as a phone or a PC. "It's not something that they want to trickle in."

RIM's tablet is perhaps the most anticipated iPad rival in a sea of new competitors bent on challenging Apple and stealing a piece of a fast-growing market expected to top 50 million units next year.

McDowell said RIM decided to go with Sprint for its first high-speed wireless compatible tablet because it has most "ubiquitous 4G network at this point."

The choice of No. 3 U.S. mobile service Sprint as RIM's first carrier was an interesting one given that Sprint uses a high-speed wireless technology that is incompatible with networks being built by the top two U.S. mobile operators.

The PlayBook -- which sports a fast dual-core processor -- performed smoothly as it went through its paces, loading websites and applications quickly and playing Flash-based videos on the Internet with ease.

The PlayBook weighs less than one pound (400 grams) and is less than 10 millimeters thick, with a thin rubber coating.

Its software allows for multi-tasking and features a rotating "carousel" that shows all the programs that the device is running. A simple finger swipe up brings up the home screen, while a swipe out closes programs.

There has been plenty of debate in recent weeks about the PlayBook's battery life, a key point of competition in the tablet market. The 10-inch iPad boasts more than 10 hours of battery life.
McDowell said the PlayBook's battery will last as long or longer than other 7-inch tablets, although he declined to be more specific.

He said concerns about Flash programs draining battery life were "absurd generalizations." Apple has derided Flash as a battery hogging technology, and the iPad does not support the widely-used multimedia software.

TABLET WARS BEGIN
RIM is betting that its reputation for security and reliability will make the PlayBook a favorite in corporate IT departments.

But Apple CEO Steve Jobs has singled out the PlayBook for criticism, saying that seven-inch tablets will be "dead on arrival" when they hit the market.

McDowell said the PlayBook will launch with a library featuring "thousands" of apps available for download. When asked, he said RIM is looking at different screen sizes for the PlayBook, but declined to comment further.

The company has previously said it would sell the PlayBook for "under $500" but has not yet provided a specific price tag. The iPad starts at $499.

Analysts, on average, forecast RIM will sell fewer than 4 million PlayBooks in the 12 months after its launch.

Apple has sold more than 7 million iPads since launching the device in April and analysts predict that the company sold as many as 6 million in the December quarter.

RIM has plenty riding on the PlayBook. Once a darling of Wall Street, the company is having a hard time convincing investors that it is well-positioned to combat Apple and Google in the booming market for smartphones and tablets.

Shares in RIM spiked sharply in heavy volume in the last hour of Nasdaq trade to end the session 4.8 percent higher at $61.92. RIM's Toronto Stock Exchange-listed shares closed 4.4 percent higher at C$61.70.

(Editing by Anshuman Daga and Lincoln Feast)

12.30.2010

Facebook tops Google as most visited site in U.S.

Bilibala: it is interesting to know who the top ranking of the most visited website in USA (from Jan to Nov 2010).
  1. Google + related 9.9%
  2. Facebook 8.9%
  3. Yahoo + related 8.1%

It is more interesting to know how much revenues & profit that those companies generated by those visit (9M 2010):

  1. Google $20.8B & $6.0B
  2. Yahoo $4.8B & $0.6B
  3. Facebook $1.5B & $0.0B (esitmated)

There is a huge different on whether you are an internet user or an investor. Investor investes in business that can generate high margin of profit, not popularity.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BT40320101230?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

(Reuters) - Facebook surpassed Google for the first time as the most visited website in the United States for most of 2010.

The social network site edged out Google.com with 8.9 percent of all U.S. visits between January and November 2010, while Google.com ranked second with about 7.2 percent of all visits, according to online measurement service Experian Hitwise.

Facebook's move to the top spot shows just how quickly the site has grown in popularity. Within the span of six years, Facebook has become the world's largest Web social network with roughly half a billion users worldwide.

Google.com dominated the top spot as the most visited website in the United States in 2009 and 2008. News Corp's MySpace was the No. 1 visited website in 2007. It is ranked No. 7.
However, when all of Google's properties are considered -- such as YouTube and email, for instance -- Google still reigns as the most visited site at 9.9 percent between January and November 2010. Facebook follows at 8.9 percent. Yahoo and all of its properties ranked third at 8.1 percent.

(Reporting by Jennifer Saba. Editing by Robert MacMillan)

12.02.2010

Top holding in USA 12/02/10

USA
1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD


  • Google’s price fall $30 this week because Europe is investigating whether its searching engine has anti-trust issue. Currently, with 80% market share in Europe, Google for sure dominant the online search market. It is fine if it is because of customers loyalty, it will be charged if it is because Google give favor to sponsor link and set barriers to other website / competitors. In the past, Microsoft had lawsuit with the Europe Commission for years and end up settled the $2.0B fine. Intel also being charged $1.4B in 2009 by EU. To me, those lawsuit can be settled by fine while Google’s dominate position will not change.
  • Did anyone of u watch Disney’s Tangled? It is a fun to watch movie, the characters are more human (instead of black & white) with great music & storyline.
  • November interest rate move up, I think is time to invest more on insurance company and reduce investment on government & corporate bonds

4.06.2010

Google's Business Reason for Leaving China

Bilibala: really good article about Google leaving China if not smart decision, at least it is not a bad idea. As what I mentioned before, reputation is extremely important.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303493904575167290011111402.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

By MATTHEW FORNEY AND ARTHUR KROEBER
Google's high-profile departure from China's search-engine market has burnished the company's reputation for ethics. The company has won plaudits from various quarters for sacrificing its business interests on the altar of free speech.

But is the decision really so altruistic? Few doubt Google's commitment to free speech, which is particularly important to co-CEO Sergey Brin, who was born in the Soviet Union. But when considering whether other companies should follow Google out of China, it's worth noting that Google's withdrawal from China's search market makes good business sense.

The reason is simple: Google's business model requires that its consumers trust that their information will be absolutely secure. So when Google says it will "do no evil" and will never compromise on its principles or its technologies, the world must believe it.

Recent events underline the sensitivity of data security. The same week that Google rerouted its China search traffic to Hong Kong servers, the Yahoo email accounts of several China-based foreign journalists were hacked. Yale University in the U.S. is reconsidering its decision to use Google's email service campus-wide after faculty members questioned whether data would be secure. And University of Toronto researchers this week announced their discovery of yet another cyber-espionage ring operating out of China.

In January, Google gave two reasons for reassessing its China operations. One was the company's dismay with the Chinese government's ceaseless efforts to limit free speech on the web. The other was a sophisticated hack attack launched from China in December that targeted Google's secure servers in the U.S.

View Full ImageFred Harper

The hackers, Google said, had penetrated far enough into the Gmail accounts of Chinese human rights activists that they could read email subject lines. Significantly, the hack also "resulted in the theft of intellectual property from Google." That property is believed to be a chunk of Google's highly confidential source code.

Google redirecting search users to its Hong Kong servers because of censorship is easy to understand. After much soul searching, Google did agree to censor its search results when it launched its Chinese search engine in 2006, and was later distressed to find that Beijing's commitment to censoring the web grew stronger over time, not weaker. But what did the hack have to do with exiting China? If the attack had come from New York City, would Google have closed down its service in Manhattan?

To find the answer, remember that the Google products we see today, such as the company's colorful but clean search page and its pinpointed maps, may soon comprise just a small part of Google's suite of products. Google's long-term plan is to compete not just with other Web publishers and search engines, but with technology companies like Microsoft and Apple.
In particular, Google wants to dominate the cloud—the suite of servers and applications that will store much of the information that businesses and individuals today retain on their own hard drives. Instead of using Word and Excel and Outlook, users may choose similar Google applications, such as Google Docs, that will store data online and make it accessible from any computer or wireless device. When used on wireless handsets, those applications may run on Google's open operating system, Android, which will of course make Google's products easy to use. In short, Google wants to be the guardian of your private information.

That's where China presents a problem. Google compromised its principles when it censored its Chinese search engine, which was damaging enough to its reputation. If Google had stayed in China and was seen as setting up research and development centers, training engineers, possibly even training the types of people who would someday hack out chunks of Google's code, then users could fairly wonder whether Google might compromise their data for a buck. As one former Google employee in China told us, "If what Google does in China makes its data seem unsafe, then Google's global strategy is gone."

So Google had much at stake in the world, but, it turns out, not much at stake in China. Google earned roughly $300 million a year in China, nearly all of it from advertising. Yet one-third of that sum came from Chinese companies using Google to place ads outside of China, and Chinese companies will presumably continue using this Google service. So Google stands to lose around $200 million. That's less than 1% of the company's global income—a rounding error.

Of course, Google forgoes more than just online advertising revenue. China's second-biggest telecommunications carrier, China Unicom, just dropped Google's search product from its newest smartphones. But such opportunity costs can be considered small compared to the downside risk of maintaining operations in China.

It's likely that Google's top executives, especially Mr. Brin, were already reconsidering their commitment to China when the hack came in December. The intrusion tipped the balance, and also provided a nice public-relations hook (Google has since said that the hackers had not targeted the email accounts of Chinese human rights activists).

The lessons to be learned from Google's exit are not necessarily transferable to other foreign companies operating in China. Many of these companies have also compromised long-stated principles. They may choose to follow Google and leave. But they should do so knowing that Google's principled stand did not imperil its future bottom line.

Mr. Forney is president of Fathom China, a corporate research firm. Mr. Kroeber is the Beijing-based managing director of economic consultancy GaveKal Dragonomics.

3.10.2010

Google Apps Store Challenges Microsoft

Bilibala: customrize app store is a great business to be in, but it works like a snow ball. The more app u had, more customers to d/l, more d/l, more programers willing to write more app. Can Google or Microsoft beat Apple? May not be, but sure each of them able to take a share from this growing pie.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10699822/1/google-apps-store-challenges-microsoft.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. TheStreet -- Google(GOOG) has opened up another front in its war with Microsoft(MSFT) by launching a new online store for business applications.
More on GOOG

Market Activity

In a company blog post, the Internet giant explained that the Google Apps Marketplace lets users find, deploy and manage cloud-based business applications. More than 50 companies are already using the Marketplace so sell applications, including small business software specialist Intuit(INTU).

Once installed to a company's domain, the apps will work like native Google applications. The programs can also interact with Google's Gmail, calendar and document offerings, Google said.
Clearly Google's new online store aims to increase the pressure on rival Microsoft.


Google and Microsoft are increasingly stepping on each other's toes in an attempt to open up new revenue streams. Microsoft has been charging hard with its Bing search engine, while Google's Chrome OS is a direct challenge to Microsoft's dominance in the PC market.


Like much of the tech sector, Google is hell-bent on boosting its cloud-computing story. Cloud services, which offer specialized applications, compute power and storage via the Internet, are said to be the next big thing.


Rival Microsoft also has its head firmly in the cloud. Earlier this year the software maker announced a $250 million cloud partnership with Hewlett-Packard(HPQ), and is also keen to speed up the development of cloud applications.


More recently, Microsoft began charging for its Azure offering, which is aimed at developers that want to create cloud-based applications. Microsoft is also planning to launch a second cloud initiative, dubbed Natal, later this year.


The challenge for Microsoft, though, is how to boost its cloud story without it eating into the rest of its business. Cloud services comprise much lower margins than Microsoft's traditional software sales.


Google may not face the same margin dilemma as Microsoft, although it does face fierce competition from the likes of Salesforce.com(CRM), which has racked up more than 72,000 customers for its cloud-based solutions.


Apple's(AAPL) App store has already harnessed the phenomenal demand for consumer applications, something that Google and Microsoft would love to emulate for business users.
Investors should expect to see some Microsoft/Google clashes along the way.

1.27.2010

Google & GooJJe

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60Q1ZC20100127?type=technologyNews?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

BEIJING (Reuters) - A Google knock-off has surfaced in China to compete with the world's largest search engine, while at the same time pleading with it to stay in the country despite censorship and hacking allegations.

=> an interesting news, how creative & smart to build up a search website (not search engine) call "GooJJe".

Adding to China's reputation for copies of items such as designer clothes, coffee chains and DVDs, "Goojje" began vying with Google on January 14, the Henan Business Daily reported.

Google Inc had said two days earlier that it may close its Chinese Google.cn portal and pull out of China.

The name chosen by the newcomer is a play on words. The final syllable "jje" sounds like the Chinese word "older sister," while the "gle" syllable of "Google" is pronounced like the Chinese word for "older brother."

Goojje (www.goojje.com) has a search engine and provides social networking services. Its home page bears a Google-styled logo that combines hallmarks from the "older brother" and China's top home-grown search engine, Baidu Inc.

"Sister was very happy when brother gave up the thought of leaving and stayed for sister," the website says, in an apparent call for Google to stay in China.

Google was not immediately available for comment about the Goojje site.
Earlier this month, U.S.-based Google complained of censorship and a sophisticated hacking attack from within the country.

Keyword search results in Goojje give slightly different results than Google or Baidu but appear to be similarly filtered to avoid content China deems sensitive.

The Henan Business Daily said Goojje was founded by a female college student in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong. Contacted by Reuters, Goojje's web host declined to give details on the site's owner.
(Reporting by Yu Le and Ralph Jennings; Editing by Alex Richardson)

1.22.2010

Bilibala mailbox - Google 4q09 result

Just reviewed Google’s 4q09 result, looks awesome!!! I mean really awesome.
GAAP EPS up to US$6.13, non GAAP up to US$6.79
· Revenue up 12.3% vs 3q09 (partly thanks to FX gain when US$ fall further in 4q09)
· Gross margin up 2.2% to 63.9% vs 3q09
· Operating margin up 6.6% to 37.2% vs 3q09

I will increase my 2010 estimated EPS to US$26.42 & US$29.3.
I decided to keep my fair value (by the end of 2014) at US$1,200. It is kind of too good to be truth, isn’t it.
Realistically, I think the 12 months target price should go up from $570 to US$660 (I guess such target price is similar to Wall Street Analysts)

The after-market share price fall 5% to US$552.

Overall EPS above all analysts expectation, is just revenue fall short for some of the analysts. Again, it depends on how people interpret information.

After all, stupid people interpret everything stupidly, smart people interpret everything smartly.

10.31.2009

Baidu 3q09 results

Baidu (Nasdaq:BIDU) recorded net income of RMB 492.9 million ($72.2 million) in the third quarter of 2009, up 41.7% year-on-year. Total revenues reached RMB 1.28 billion ($187.3 million) in the quarter up 39.1% from the corresponding period in 2008, with online marketing revenues contributing RMB 1.278 billion ($187.2 million).

=> Earning & growth in line with Bilibala's expectation. However, its 12 month price earning growth ratio looks a bit high. If based on 2010 forward price earning growth ratio, then it looks ok.

Baidu saw its active online marketing customers in the quarter increase 11.3% annually and 6.4% sequentially to 216,000, with average revenue per online marketing customer at RMB 5,900 ($864), up 25.5% year-on-year and 9.3% quarter-on-quarter. The company reported traffic acquisition cost (TAC) of RMB 196.2 million ($28.7 million), or 15.3% of total revenues, as compared to 11.8% in the corresponding period in 2008 and 16.0% in the second quarter of 2009. Baidu attributed the annual increase to fast growth in its Baidu Union business.

The company warned it expects revenues ranging from RMB1.19 billion ($174 million) to RMB 1.23 billion ($180 million) for the fourth quarter of 2009, up 32-36% year-on-year, as it anticipates a negative impact from discontinuing its "classic" bid ranking system.

=> "slower" growth trigger investors to sell Baidu's shares. Share price fall significantly by 13.2% from US$432.97 on Monday to US$375.72 on Friday (after market). Bilibala think after the fall, Baidu once again looks attractive.

10.20.2009

Google acquired Baidu

Baidu says we were not and will not be for sale(ccid.net) Yesterday, Google successfully issued secondary stock offerings. It collected $4.18 billion, and increased it's cash on hand to $7 billion. CEO Eric Schmidt and founder Sergey Brin held a lunch party at St. Regis hotel in New York where they revealed Google's acquistion and products plan.

Fund manager from Gabelli, Howard Ward said that many contents of the talks are related to China. Investment manager from Morgan Stanley, David Schiller pointed out directly, that the best case is that Google could buy some search company and online gaming company from China.Google is still focusing on its core business of search. They are very interested in expansion into the Chinese market.

It's dare challenge to Microsoft in court is a good example. The biggest Chinese search engine Baidu owns 37% of the market. Yahoo spent $1 billion to purchase shares in China's largest e-commerce company Alibaba last month. Ranked second with 23% of Chinese search market share, Google is facing very formidable competitions in China.One side, there is a rush to expand Chinese service. On the othe hand, there is the intensified competitions.

It could become a costly battle. Many American companies like to go around to reducing risks. Merger and acquisition are commonly used tools as well as short cuts.

Google's CEO Eric Schmidt said in July this year, that Google has two choices in China:
First is that Google simply stays as a shareholder of Baidu;
Second is that both sides further develop collaborations, and Google will purchase more Baidu shares, even as a joint company. The second choice can lead to a final takeover of Baidu by Google to make Baidu the Chinese subsidiary of Google. With the fresh obtained $4.18 billion, Google again signaled that they want to "purchase search engine and online gaming companies from China". Google already owns 3% of Baidu, and the coincidence with the sharp falling of Baidu's market price to make it very likely that Google will buy Baidu to gain the lead in the Chinese search market.

As to the news that Google possibly will buy Baidu, how Baidu looks at this? A senior executive said that it was not likely. Baidu never been and will not be for sale. Baidu's goal is to make a Chinese brand and will go outside to the whole world to establish the brand.

To sum it up, the ambitiously expanding Google is keen on the Chinese market. Even they cannot use other means to gain the control of Baidu, they can still find another target on other Chinese search engines.

=> never known that Google has acquired 3% on Baidu since 2004. Just found out.

10.15.2009

Google 3q09 results

Google Inc.'s (GOOG) third-quarter earnings rose 27% to top Wall Street expectations as the Internet company recorded a return to sequential growth in traffic to its advertisers.
In after-hours trading, the company's shares were up 2.1% at $540.89. The stock, having more than doubled from November's lows, hit a 52-week high of $536.90 earlier Thursday.
The worst of the downturn passed with only a hiccup from the search-engine giant as the company is already setting plans to beef up operations after laying off workers for the first time earlier this year.

Although paid clicks had been pressured lately by the economy - falling 2% sequentially in the second quarter - the outlook has remained bright, especially with Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) bing.com's having so far been unable to shake Google's search dominance.

Google reported earnings of $1.64 billion, or $5.13 a share, compared with $1.29 billion, or $4.06 a share, a year ago. Excluding stock-based compensation, the figure rose to $5.89 a share from $4.92.

=> It is US$0.26 or 4.6% better than Bilibala's expectation of US$5.63 too.

Revenue rose 7.3% to $5.94 billion. Traffic-acquisition costs - commissions paid to marketing partners - totaled $1.56 billion, or 27% of advertising revenue.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected adjusted earnings of $5.42 a share on revenue of $4.24 billion, excluding traffic-acquisition costs.

=> Bilibala once again did a better guess than Wall Street

Google's U.S. paid clicks - a measure of how frequently consumers clicked on its ads - surged 14% from a year earlier and were up 4% from the second quarter. Costs per click fell 6% from a year earlier but rose 5% from the previous quarter.

-By Jay Miller, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2355; jay.miller@dowjones.com

Google needs 6% growth in sales?

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Google Inc., reporting third-quarter earnings after markets close, needs to post sequential sales growth of at least 6 percent to meet traders’ “whisper number” and send the stock higher, an analyst said.

=> 6%? Should have no problem!! Given 50% of the business from international and USD$ down by 5% to 15% vs other currencies. That will generate additional 5% increase in sales (50% x (5%+10%)/2). It is kind of expected and has to be at least 6%.

Investors are looking for revenue, excluding sales passed on to partner sites, to rise to about $4.3 billion from $4.07 billion in the previous three months, according to Aaron Kessler, a San Francisco-based analyst at Kaufman Brothers LP. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey estimate revenue of $4.25 billion.

“Upside’s getting priced in,” Kessler said in an interview. “At least we know where the bottom was and we’re kind of out of the bottom here.”

Google, which grappled with a slowdown in online advertising sales during the recession, is now seeing a more “normalized” level of spending by clients, Kessler said. Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt said earlier this month that the “worst is behind us.” Analysts have raised their estimate for Google’s third-quarter sales by $45.2 million in the past four weeks.

Clayton Moran, an analyst with Benchmark Co. in Boca Raton, Florida, said investors are looking for $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion in sales for the third quarter. Google may need to report $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion to get the company’s stock “to really continue to move higher,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

Analysts predict Google will report earnings, excluding stock-based compensation, of $5.43 a share, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Google, based in Mountain View, California, fell $3.58 to $531.74 at 12:32 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares had climbed 74 percent this year before today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at Bwomack1@bloomberg.net

10.09.2009

Google將推新版AdSense

2009/10/05 21:21 鉅亨網編譯張正芊 綜合外電 

全球網路廣告業龍頭 Google Inc. (GOOG-US﹔谷歌)預定周一推出適用於智慧型手機的新版 AdSense 網路文字廣告刊登系統,允許更多元的廣告刊登形式,例如不同的顯示尺寸以及更複雜的平面設計,甚至可包含小型影像。透過該系統,手機發行商能夠讓智慧型手 機使用者,觀看到 Google 的文字廣告。而為了滿足這類手機的高階功能,Google 研發新的廣告刊登系統,使其展示效果較好、更漂亮,也讓手機商及 Google 可以藉打入高階市場而增加收入。不過,Google 新版 AdSense 原訂在 6 周前就推出,卻遭遇多項程序錯誤而延宕至今。一方面顯示才剛開始熱門發展的智慧型手機,仍有許多尚未充分考量的領域,例如 Palm Inc. (PALM-US) 新推出的 Palm Pre 手機正因為太新,而尚未納入程式規劃範圍內。另一方面也顯示 Google 在積極創新產品的同時,考量似乎仍過於單純。據《紐約時報》報導,Google 在正式推出程式產品之前,僅透過比例極小的現流設備來測試。同一時間,除了與 4 家手機商進行新廣告系統測試外,還維持原基本廣告系統並行運作,以為控管。最後,Google 的新廣告系統研發者還得獲得大量測試結果,並確認在系統供應的 27 個國家中,使用不同語言的廣告排版結果都無誤。即便如此,Sanford C. Bernstein & Company 分析師Jeffrey Lindsay 也不看好手機網路廣告市場。他於上周公佈的報告中指出,儘管手機使用人口持續增加中,但潛在營收有限,預期至 2013 年,美國地區的手機搜尋業務營收占 Google 全年營收比例,也依舊不及2%。另一方面,對手雅虎 (Yahoo Inc.﹔YHOO-US) 上周二也率先宣佈推出相似的廣告新功能,提供適用於部分高階手機的獨特搜尋廣告系統。讓 Google 感受到更大壓力。

Gmail電郵受病毒攻擊

2009年 10月 7日 00:09
http://chinese.wsj.com/big5/20091007/BUS008108.asp?source=channel

國廣播公司(BBC)週二報導稱﹐谷歌(Google Inc., GOOG)已向該電視頻道證實﹐其電子郵件系統Gmail受到了釣魚計劃(Phishing Scheme)病毒的影響。

谷 歌發言人表示﹐公司近來發現各類電子郵箱都受到了釣魚計劃病毒的影響﹐其中就包括Gmail郵件帳戶﹔黑客利用該病毒獲取用戶電子郵件帳戶的保密信息。發 言人稱﹐已強制受影響帳戶重新設置密碼。谷歌表示﹐該病毒並未破壞Gmail的安全系統﹐而是一個誘騙用戶向黑客洩露個人信息的騙局。
The information provided in the entire blog is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax or specific investment advice. The information presented was obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, I cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. I assume no responsibility for any losses, whether direct, special or consequential, that arise out of the use of this information. This information is subject to change without notice. Stock performance are not guaranteed, their prices change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please do your own investigation, or contact your own professional advise, before investing.