Top holding in USA 12/10/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• Government decided to extend the tax cut policy for another 2 years, positive impact to retail & credit market
• Initial jobless claim fall to 421k this week, looks like the trend is continue to fall from 450k to 425k, positive sign on job market.
• BOD of General Electric increase dividends by 17% to 14 cents per shares per qtr, a positive sign on industrial sector capital loan market, no change to NPV.

Top holding in USA 12/02/10

USA
1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• Google’s price fall $30 this week because Europe is investigating whether its searching engine has anti-trust issue. Currently, with 80% market share in Europe, Google for sure dominant the online search market. It is fine if it is because of customers loyalty, it will be charged if it is because Google give favor to sponsor link and set barriers to other website / competitors. In the past, Microsoft had lawsuit with the Europe Commission for years and end up settled the $2.0B fine. Intel also being charged $1.4B in 2009 by EU. To me, those lawsuit can be settled by fine while Google’s dominate position will not change.
• Did anyone of u watch Disney’s Tangled? It is a fun to watch movie, the characters are more human (instead of black & white) with great music & storyline.
• November interest rate move up, I think is time to invest more on insurance company and reduce investment on government & corporate bonds

Top holding in Asia/Europe 12/02/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 HOLD => BUY
5. Shiu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY

• Irish finally got its $$ and the next bond maturity bubble in Europe is Spain & Portugal. Wall street analysts make it sounds like a crisis. In fact, those are simply finding new bondholders to replace their old bonds.
• I think Europe will struggle with slow economy growth for years. The way Europe handle financial crisis is completely opposite than USA. In USA, the quantitative easing buy t-bills, increase money supply in order to prevent deflation, USA increase spending & Debt GDP ratio to boost economy. On the other hand, Europe focus on cutting expenses, reduce debt & reduce money supply. I still think quantitative easing will be a better approach.
• 2 weeks ago I said Hong Kong stock market climb up from 19,000 to 25,000, then drop back to 23,000 is a reasonable adjustments. You can see a strong support at 23,000. I think it will rise back to 25,000 soon.
• I don’t think North Korean issues is a big deal, there will not be a war, but the conflict will continue until I dunno, until North Korean leaders “golden” father & son collapsed, um……..say few years later.

Top holding in USA 11/22/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

Irish financial crisis: Investors over-react the impact: 1) Irish’s fund shortage is due to broken of real estate bubble & creating mortgage bad debt in many Irish banks. So Irish government inject capital to banks and ran out of $$ in short term; 2) It is not big crisis because:

• EU has $750B emerging fund to support any member country in need;
• The shortage is not due to long term structural credit issues;
• The debt renewal amount is lots smaller than Greek, while Irish’s economy is better than Greek

I think it will settle this week.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 11/22/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 HOLD
5. Shiu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY

• China increased bank reserve ratio by 50 bps to 18.5%, historical highest & reduce next year’s borrowing target for big 4 banks, which will reduce R$350B credit flow in market. These are some softer policies to cool down the “hot” money, although it may hurt the potential growth of the bank sector – whose profit rely heavily on borrowing & deposit, on the other hand, it will lower the credit risk and decelerate the growth of the financial “bubble”
• I really upset & disappointed about the way China government handle with 趙連海, I don’t understand why, it is not political and if this (I mean if) is merely a civil case towards a corporation, and if the government don’t want to pay the compensation to all babies who got sick, that’s easy, just let 3 6 went bankrupt and re-open again 3 6 with the same management team few years later (of course, this is not ethical too). The government just don’t need to do such thing, it hurt everyone’s trust to China’s legal system and its political image in short term and if China continue this way, economy is everything and it is nothing, it will just lead the entire country, our nation, our home land, towards death. 趙連海 is really one of the righteous person in this injustice society, someone I should learn from (although I really don’t want to end up in jail) not just fighting for the rights on behave of his baby kid, but for the poor girl who got raped publicly in police station (make me think of the story in bible – judge c19-21).

Top holding in Asia/Europe 11/16/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL)
2. China Life (2628/LFC)
3. China Construction Bank (0939)
4. Total SA (TOT)
5. Shiu On Land (0272)

Market Fall: global stock market fall because of the following worries:

• Slow economy growth (every once a while, such worry came back)
• Inflation risk (will it come? No & Yes!! No, cuz consumer product index keep at around 2.0% and even in China, it is only 4.9%; Yes, commodity price rise like crazy. So it came and it will come, but in a non-tradition format – not in consumer product)
• Interest rate will rise (in China) (in order to balance between money supply, consumer product price and keep the borrowing / assets ratio low to prevent a potential bubble, I think a reasonable rise in interest is healthy to the economy. Under this interest rate rising expectation, China Life should be the biggest gainer cuz it will lower its insurance reserve liabilities.
• Default risk of the European PIIGS bonds
• To me, those worry are understandable but I think the true reason is a reasonable stock market adjustment. We should see the market stabilized at this point where S&P 500 at around 1170 and Hang Seng at around 23,000.

I’ve switched Exxon Mobil to Total SA, a France based integrated oil & gas company, cuz I want to increase my investment in Euro zone to have a more diversify portfolio while I think Total SA’s value is being more understated compare to Exxon Mobil.

Econ data 09 week 46

Econ data 09 week 45

USA
Overall

• 3Q productivity-prelim up to +9.5% from +6.6% in 2Q (better, +6.5%)
• Sep construction spending up to +0.8% from -0.1% in Aug (better, -0.2%)

Consumer

• Oct ISM index up to 55.7 from 52.6 in Sep (better, 53.0)
• Oct ISM services down to 50.6 from 50.9 in Sep (worse, 51.5)
• Sep factory order up to +0.9% from -0.8% in Aug (better, +0.8%)
• Oct auto sales up to 3.7M from 3.3M in Sep
• Oct truck sales up to 4.2M from 3.5M in Sep
• Sep wholesales inventories up to -0.9% from -1.3% in Aug (better, -1.0%)
• Sep consumer credit down to -$14.8B from -$9.9B (worse, -$10.0B)

House

• Sep pending home sales down to 6.1% from 6.4% in Aug (better, 0.0%)

Job

• Oct unemployment rate up to 10.2% from 9.8% in Sep (worse, 9.9%)
• Oct nonfarm payrolls up to -190k from -219k in Sep (worse, -175k)
• Oct ADP employment report up to -203k from -227k in Sep (worse, -198k)
• 10/31 initial jobless claims down to 512k from 532k last week (better, 522k)
• 10/24 continuing jobless claims down to 5,749k from 5,817k last week (inline, 5,750k)

Canada

• Oct unemployment rate up to 8.6% from 8.4% in Sep
• Oct net change in employment down to -43.2k from +30.6k
• Sep building permits down to +1.6% from +7.4%

Warren Buffett read on recession

http://money.cnn.com/video/fortune/2009/09/15/f_mpw_buffett_recession.fortune

Econ data 09 week 44

USA
Overall

• 3Q09 GDP up to +3.5% from -0.7% in 2Q09 (better than expect, +3.2%)
• 3Q09 chain deflator up to +0.8% from -0.4% in 2Q09 (worse, +1.4%)
• Oct Chicago PMI up to 54.2 from 46.1 in Sep (better, 49.0)
• Oct Mich sentiment Rev up to 70.6 from 69.4 prelim (better, 70.0)

Consumer

• Oct consumer confidence down to 47.7 from 53.4 in Sep (worse, 53.5)
• Sep durable orders up to +1.0% from -2.6% in Aug (in line, +1.0%)
• Sep durable orders ex transport up to +0.9% from -0.4% in Aug (better, +0.7%)
• Sep pensonal spending down to -0.5% from +1.4% in Aug (in line, -0.5%)

House

• Aug CaseShiller home price index up to -11.32% from -13.26% in Jul (better, -11.90%)
• Sep new home sales down to 402k from 417k in Aug (worse, 440k)

Job

• 10/24 initial jobless claim 530k no change from 531k in last week (worse, 525k)
• 10/17 continuing jobless claim down to 5,797k from 5,945k in last week (better, 5,905k)
• Sep personal income down to 0.0% from +0.1% in Aug (in line, 0.0%)

Canada

• Aug GDP down 0.1% M/M, worse than expect +0.1%

Econ data 09 week 43

USA
Overall

• Sep leading indicators up to +1.0% from +0.4% in Aug (better than expect, +0.8%) reach its 2 years high sight the economic recovery is in good pace
• Sep PPI down to -0.6% from +1.7% in Aug (worse, 0.0%) mainly due to "cash for cunkers", so is ok
• Sep PPI down to -0.1% from +0.2% in Aug (worse, 0.1%)

Consumer

• n/a

House

• Sep existing home sales up to 5.57M from 5.09M in Aug (better, 5.35M)
• Sep building permits down sightly to 573k from 580k in Aug (worse, 595k)
• Sep housing starts up to 590k from 587k in Aug (worse, 610k)
• Aug FHFA housing price index down -0.3% from +0.3% in Jul (worse, +0.3%)
• It indicate a slower than expect recover, on the other hand is good

Job

• 10/17 initial jobless claim up to 531k from 520k (worse, 515k)
• 10/10 continuing jobless claim down to 5,923k from 6,021k (better, 5,970k)
• Continuing claims down by 98k below 6M, good sight, but we can only confirm the job market looks ok if it drop below 5M

Canada

• Sep leading indicator down to + 1.1% M/M from +1.2% M/M in Aug
• Aug retail sales up to +0.8% M/M from -0.5% M/M in Aug
• Aug retail sales ex-auto up to +0.5% M/M from -0.7% M/M in Aug
• Aug wholesale sales down t0 -1.4% M/M from +2.6% M/M in Jul

China

• 3q09 GDP up +8.9% Y/Y, beyond analysts expectation & top government's objective

Econ data 09 week 42

USA
Overall

• Sep CPI down to +0.2% from up +0.4% in Aug (inline with expect, +0.2%)
• Sep Core CPI up to +0.2% from up +0.1% in Aug (better, +0.1%)
• Oct Philadelphia Fed down to 11.5 from 14.1 in Sep (worse, 12.0)

Consumer market

• Sep retail sales down to -1.5% from up +2.2% in Aug (better, -2.1%)
• Sep retail sales ex-auto down to +0.5% from up +1.0% in Aug (better, +0.2%)
• Aug business inventories down to -1.5% from down -1.1% in Jul (worse, -1.0%)
• Sep industrial production down to +0.7% from up +1.2% in Aug (better, +0.2%)

House market

• n/a

Job market

• Oct 10 initial jobless claims down to 514k from 524k last week (better, 520k)
• Oct 03 initial continuing jobless claims down to 5,992k from 6,067k last week (better, 6,000k)

Canada

• Aug new house price index down to +0.1% from +0.3% in Jul
• Aug new motor vehicle sales down to -0.3% from +5.3% in Jul
• Aug manufacturing sales down to -2.1% from +5.5% in Jul
• Sep CPI down to -0.9% Y/Y from -0.8% Y/Y in Aug
• Sep Core CPI down to +1.5% Y/Y from +1.6% Y/Y in Aug

Econ data 09 week 41

USA

Overall

• n/a

Consumer market

• Sep ISM Service up to 50.9 from 48.4 in Aug (better, 50.0)
• Aug consumer credit down another -12.0B follow -$19B down in Jul (worse, -$10B)
• Aug wholesale inventories up to -1.3% from -1.6% in Jul (worse, -1.0%)

House market

• n/a

Job market

• 10/03 initial jobless claim down to 521k from 554k in last week (better, 540k)
• 09/2 contining jobless claim down to 6,040k from 6,112k in last week (better, 6,105k)

Canada
Consumer market

• 3Q business outlook future sales index up to 53.0 from 39.0 in 2Q

Job market

• Sep unemployment rate down to 8.4% from 8.7% in Aug
• Sep net change in employment up to +30.6k from +27.1k

House market

• Aug building permit up to 7.2% from -10.0% in Jul
• Sep housing starts up down to 150.1k from +157.3k in Aug

Econ data 09 week 40

USA
Overall

• 2q09 final GDP up to -0.7% from -1.0% in 2nd revised (better than expect, -1.2%)
• Aug construction spending up to +0.8% from -1.1% in Jul (better, -0.1%)

Consumer market

• Aug personal spending up to +1.3% from +0.3% in Jul (better, +1.1%) thanks to the cash for clunker program, one should expect the spending will drop back in Sep
• Aug factory orders down to -0.8% from +1.4% in Jul (worse, +0.0%)
• Sep Chicago PMI down to 46.1 from 50.0 in Aug (worse, 52.0)
• Sep ISM index down slightly to 52.6 form 52.9 in Aug (worse, 54.0)
• Sep auto & truck sales down to 3.30M & 3.50M from 5.32M & 4.87M, looks fine to me, without the cash for clunker, the figures in sep still looks ok

House market

• Jul Case-Shiller housing price index up to -13.3% from -15.4% in Jun (better, -14.2%)
• Aug pending home sales up to +6.4% from 3.2% in Jul (better, +1.0%)
• House market looks stable by trend, I think even if unemployment rate rise further to say 10.5%, thanks to the jobless claims that the unemployed workers will get, should not have significant impact to house market as well as mortgage business as what happen last 1 year.

Job market

• 09/26 initial jobless claims up to 551k from 534k last week (worse, 535k)
• 09/19 continuing jobless claims down to 6,090k from 6,170k last week (better, 6,170k) that is a great news, Bilibala will value more on this than the unemployment rate
• Sep unemployment rate up to 9.8% from 9.7% in Aug (inline, 9.8%) there is 571k discouraged unemployers during Sep, without taking into account of those, the rate could rise to 10.0%.
• Sep nonfarm payroll down to -263k from -201k in Aug (worse, -175k)
• Sep ADP employment up to -254k from -277k in Aug (worse, -200k)
• Aug person income no change at +0.2% from Jul (better, +0.1%)

Canada

• Aug industrial production price up +0.5% from -0.5% in Jul;
• Aug raw material price index up to +3.7% from -3.8% in Jul

Econ data 09 w39

USA

Overall

This week, most of the econ data are worse than expectation other than the jobless claim. It once again confirm the recovery is happening but on the other hand, the pace of recovery will be slower than most of the economists' expectation. This is inline with Bilibala's expectation, a slow recover create uncertainty along the way, but at the same time, giving the government time to find and try out solution on how to deal with the future inflation & improve the regulation on how to oversee the financial institutions.

• Aug leading indicators down to +0.6% from +0.9% (worse than expect, +0.7%)

Consumer market

• Aug durable orders down -2.4% from +4.8% in Jul (worse, +0.4%)
  Aug durable orders (ex-transportation) down 0.0% from +0.9% in Jul (worse, +1.0%)

Job market

• 09/19 Initial jobless claim down to 530k from 551k last week (better, 550k)
• 09/12 continuing jobless claim down to 6,138k from 6,261k last week (better, 6,183k)

House market

• Jul FHFA housing price index up to 0.3% from +0.1% in Jun (worse, +0.5)
• Aug existing home sales down to 5.1M from 5.24M in Jul (worse, 5.35M)
• Aug new home sales up to 429k from 426k in Jul (worse, 440k)

Canada

Consumer market

• Jul retail sales down to -0.6% from +1.0%
• Jul retail sales (ex-auto) down to -0.8% from +1.0%

Aug 09 Hong Kong CPI

經濟通通訊社２２日專訊》政府統計處公布，今年８月份整體消費物價與一年前同月比較，下跌１﹒６％。經季節性調整的綜合消費物價指數，在６至８月的三個月內的平均每月變動率為－０﹒７％。　　

消費物價指數在８月份的按年變動率及６至８月的三個月內經季節性調整的平均每月變動率均受各項政府一次性紓困措施影響，特別是電費補貼及政府自８月起代繳兩個月公營房屋租金。　　

剔除所有政府一次性紓困措施的影響，綜合消費物價指數在８月的按年變動率（即基本變動率）為－０﹒３％，與７月的相應變動率相同。經季節性調整的基本綜合消費物價指數，６至８月的三個月內的平均每月變動率為－０﹒１％，亦與５至７月的三個月內的相應變動率相同。　　　　　　　　　　　　

＊　電力、燃氣及水價格按年大跌　＊　　
甲類、乙類及丙類整體消費物價指數在８月份的按年變動率分別為－２﹒４％、－１﹒５％及－１％，而７月的相應變動率則分別為－２﹒２％、－１﹒４％及－０﹒９％。剔除所有政府一次性紓困措施的影響，甲類、乙類及丙類消費物價指數在８月的按年變動率分別為－０﹒２％、－０﹒３％及－０﹒４％，在７月的變動率則分別為－０﹒３％、－０﹒２％及－０﹒３％。　　

在各類消費項目中，電力、燃氣及水在８月的價格按年大跌（在綜合消費物價指數中跌４１﹒８％及在甲類消費物價指數中跌４６﹒７％），主因是政府提供電費補貼。價格同樣錄得按年跌幅的還有雜項（分別跌３﹒３％及４％），耐用品（分別跌２﹒９％及３﹒３％），交通（分別跌２﹒３％及０﹒５％）和食品（不包括外出用膳）（分別跌２﹒１％及２﹒４％）。

＊　消費物價升壓未來數月將緩和　＊　　
價格在８月份錄得按年升幅的類別為煙酒（在綜合消費物價指數中升２２﹒８％及在甲類消費物價指數中升２５﹒７％），衣履（分別升２％及２﹒７％），雜項（分別升２％及２﹒５％），住屋（分別升１﹒７％及０﹒８％）和外出用膳（分別升０﹒７％及０﹒９％）。　　

今年首８個月合併計算，綜合消費物價指數按年升０﹒２％，甲類、乙類及丙類消費物價指數的相應變動率則為－０﹒５％、０﹒４％及０﹒８％。　　

政府發言人表示，消費物價通脹在８月份維持輕微負數，這是由於在疲弱的環球經濟情況下，進口價格和本地營商成本偏軟所致。發言人進一步指出，消費物價上升的壓力在未來數月將持續緩和。（ｅｈ）

Econ data 09 w38

USA
Overall

• Aug CPI up to +0.4% from +0.0% in Jul (better than expect +0.3%)
• Aug core CPI flat at +0.1% from +0.1% in Jul (inline, +0.1%)
• Aug PPI up to +1.7% from -0.9% in Jul (better, +0.8%)
• Aug core PPI up to +0.2% from -0.1% in Jul (better, +0.1%)
• Aug capacity utilization up to 69.6% from 69.0% in Jul (better, 69%)

Consumer market

• Aug retail sales up to +2.7% from -0.2% in Jul (better, +1.9%) thanks to the Cash for Cruger program
• Aug retail sales ex-auto up to +1.1% from -0.5% in Jul (better, +0.4%) also very strong
• Jul business inventories up to -1.0% from -1.4% in Jun (expect, -0.9%) inventories keep dropping to a point i think further down may not be health, it should start stablize of heading up if we are looking for a economic recovery
• Aug industrial production down to +0.8% from +1.0% in Jul (better, +0.6%)

House market

• Aug housing starts up to 598k from 589k in Jul (inline, 598k)
• Aug building permits up to 579k from 564k in Jul (worse, 583k)

Job market

• 09/12 initial jobless claims down to 545k from 557k last week (better, 557k)
• 09/05 continuing jobless claims up to 6,230k from 6,101k last week (worse, 6,100k)
• As we all know the employment market will continue to struggle for a while

Canada

pending

Econ data 09 week 37

USA
Consumer market

• Sep Mich Sentiment (preliminary) up to 70.2 from 65.7 in Aug (better than expect, 67.5)
• Jul consumer credit drop -$21.6B from -$15.5B in Jun (worse, -$4.0B)
• Jul wholesales inventories down to -1.4% from -2.1% in Jun (better, -1.0%)
• Comsumer increase their saving and cut lending, hope in long run, consumer will build up a healthier spending habit, on the other hand, it will slow down the recovery if consumer spending are low

Job market

• 09/05 initial jobless claim down to 550k from 576k last week (better, 560k)
• 08/29 continuing jobless claims down to 6,088k from 6,247k last week (better, 6,200k)
• Got to see whether it will drop further below 500k & 5.5M in order to tell whether the job market has come out of recession or not

Canada

House market

• Jul building premits down to -11.4% from +1.2% in Jun
• Aug house starts up to 150.4k from 134.2k in Jul
• Jul new house price index up to +0.3% from -0.2% in Jun

Econ Data 09 w36

- 美國失業率
- 加拿大大選
- 中國 QFII 對股市影響

- 中國人壽09年第二季


USA
Overall

• 2Q revised productivity up to +6.6% from +6.4% in 1st draft (better than expect, +6.4%)

Consumer market

• Aug auto sales up to 5.3M from 4.2M in Jul & Aug truck sales up to 4.9M from 4.2M in Jul. Thanks to the Cash for Clucker program that government offer $4,500 for auto buyers who trade in their 2nd hand cars
• Aug ISM index up to 52.9 from 48.9 in Jul (better, 50.5), again, above 50 means out of recession from a technical point of view
• Aug ISM Service up to 48.4 from 46.4 in Jul (better, 48.0)
• Jul factory orders up to +1.3% from +0.9% in Jun (worse, +2.2%)

House market

• Jul pending home sales down to +3.2% from +3.6% in Jun (better, +1.5%)

Job market

• Aug unemployment rate up to 9.7% from 9.4% in Jul (worse, 9.5%)
• Aug non-fram payroll pos up to -216k from -276k in Jul (inline, -230k)
• Aug ADP employment up to -298k from -360k (worse, -250k)
• 08/29 initial jobless claim down to 570k from 574k (worse, 564k)

Canada

• Jun GDP up to +0.1% M/M from -0.5% M/M in May
• Aug unemployment rate up to 8.7% from 8.6% in Jul
• Aug net change in employment up to +27.1 from -44.5 in Jul, looks like a catch up to me, i want to see the trend in Sep & Oct before I can confirm the unemployment situation has already touch the peak

Econ data 09 w35

- 2Q USA GDP
- 衰退
- 中國移動



USA
Overall

• 2Q GDP revised from -1.0% to -1.0% (better than expect, -1.5%)
• 2Q GDP deflater revised from +0.2% to 0.0% (better than expect, +0.2%)

Consumer market

• Aug Consumer confidence up to 54.1 from 47.4 (better, 47.9) it also ran above 50.0, another sign to show recession may be over
• Jul durable orders up to +4.9% from -1.3% in Jun (better, +3.0%)
• Jul durable orders ex transport down to +0.8% from -2.5% in Jun (worse, +0.9%)
• Jul personal spending down to +0.2% from +0.6% in Jun (inline, +0.2%)

House market

• Jul new home sales up to 433k from 395k in Jun (better, 390k)
• Jun S&P home price index up to -15.44% from -17.02% (better, -16.4%)

Job market

• Jul personal income up to 0.0% from -1.1% in Jun (worse, +0.1%)
• 08/22 initial jobless claims down to 570k from 580k last week (worse, 565k)
• 08/22 continue jobless claims down to 6,133k from 6,254k last week

Canada

• Jun retail sales down to +1.0% from +1.1% in May
• Jun retail sales ex-auto up to +1.0% from +0.6% in May