Econ Data 09 w36

- 美國失業率
- 加拿大大選
- 中國 QFII 對股市影響

- 中國人壽09年第二季


USA
Overall

• 2Q revised productivity up to +6.6% from +6.4% in 1st draft (better than expect, +6.4%)

Consumer market

• Aug auto sales up to 5.3M from 4.2M in Jul & Aug truck sales up to 4.9M from 4.2M in Jul. Thanks to the Cash for Clucker program that government offer $4,500 for auto buyers who trade in their 2nd hand cars
• Aug ISM index up to 52.9 from 48.9 in Jul (better, 50.5), again, above 50 means out of recession from a technical point of view
• Aug ISM Service up to 48.4 from 46.4 in Jul (better, 48.0)
• Jul factory orders up to +1.3% from +0.9% in Jun (worse, +2.2%)

House market

• Jul pending home sales down to +3.2% from +3.6% in Jun (better, +1.5%)

Job market

• Aug unemployment rate up to 9.7% from 9.4% in Jul (worse, 9.5%)
• Aug non-fram payroll pos up to -216k from -276k in Jul (inline, -230k)
• Aug ADP employment up to -298k from -360k (worse, -250k)
• 08/29 initial jobless claim down to 570k from 574k (worse, 564k)

Canada

• Jun GDP up to +0.1% M/M from -0.5% M/M in May
• Aug unemployment rate up to 8.7% from 8.6% in Jul
• Aug net change in employment up to +27.1 from -44.5 in Jul, looks like a catch up to me, i want to see the trend in Sep & Oct before I can confirm the unemployment situation has already touch the peak

Econ data 09 w35

- 2Q USA GDP
- 衰退
- 中國移動



USA
Overall

• 2Q GDP revised from -1.0% to -1.0% (better than expect, -1.5%)
• 2Q GDP deflater revised from +0.2% to 0.0% (better than expect, +0.2%)

Consumer market

• Aug Consumer confidence up to 54.1 from 47.4 (better, 47.9) it also ran above 50.0, another sign to show recession may be over
• Jul durable orders up to +4.9% from -1.3% in Jun (better, +3.0%)
• Jul durable orders ex transport down to +0.8% from -2.5% in Jun (worse, +0.9%)
• Jul personal spending down to +0.2% from +0.6% in Jun (inline, +0.2%)

House market

• Jul new home sales up to 433k from 395k in Jun (better, 390k)
• Jun S&P home price index up to -15.44% from -17.02% (better, -16.4%)

Job market

• Jul personal income up to 0.0% from -1.1% in Jun (worse, +0.1%)
• 08/22 initial jobless claims down to 570k from 580k last week (worse, 565k)
• 08/22 continue jobless claims down to 6,133k from 6,254k last week

Canada

• Jun retail sales down to +1.0% from +1.1% in May
• Jun retail sales ex-auto up to +1.0% from +0.6% in May

Econ data 09 week 32

Bilibala Finance 經濟數據分析:
- 美國 7月失業率
- 加拿大 7月失業率
- 中國信貨危機?
- 本周大市回顧
- 滙豐控股
- 宏利金融
- 富國銀行



USA
Consumer market

• Jul ISM index up to 48.9 from 44.8 in Jun (better than expect, 46.5)
• Jun pesonal spending up +0.4% from +0.1% in May (better, +0.3%)
• Jun factory orders down to +0.4% from +1.1% in May (better, -0.8%)

House market

• Jun construction spending up +0.3% from -0.8% in May (better, -0.5%)
• Jun pending home sales up +3.6% from +0.8% in May (better, +0.7%)

Job market

• Jul unemployment rate down to 9.4% from 9.5% in Jun (better, 9.7%), what a surprise!!
• Jul non farm payroll cut -247k positions from -443k in Jun (better, -325k)
• Jul ADP employment change cut -371k positions from -463k in Jun (worse, -350k)
• Jul Personal income down -1.3% from +1.3% in Jun (worse, -1.0%) but the down mainly driven by tax refund draw back in Jun, excluded tax refund impact, income only down -0.3%, still low
• 08/01 initial jobless claims down to 550k from 588k last week (better, 580k)

Canada
pending