Asia/Europe - 04/01/11

Asia / Europe (47.4% of asset mix) (with net present value in 1 year) 1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$101.2 STRONG BUY 2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.5 STRONG BUY 3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 => HK$9.1 BUY 4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD 5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 => HK$6.5 STRONG BUY 6. HSBC Holding (0005/HBC) US$67.3 => US$63.3 BUY 7. IFSE A50 China Fund (2823) HK$22.4 STRONG BUY · Mar 11 major transactions: add Honda Motor (HMC) US$36.93; add MTR (0066) HK$29.1; add China Resource Power (0836) HK$13.0 · China Construction Bank 4q10 press release · 2010 net income up 26% to RM$135B compare to 2009, given 1. Net interest income up 19% to RM$252B 2. Fee income up 38% to RM$66B 3. Expenses & impairment up 15% to RM$121B & $29B 4. P/E ratio as of Mar 31, 2011 equal to 11.3 (looks reasonable, but with such high growth rate, the P/E ratio are low) · 2010 deposit from customers up 13% while loan to customer up 18% & loan to deposit ratio up 2% to 62% (very healthy or overly healthy compare to lots of global peers · 2010 book value up 10% to RM$2.8, price to book ratio 2.25 (slightly higher, but reasonable given the high growth rate) · Change NPV to HK$9.1, with a conservative 15% growth rate in earnings and 10% increase in RMB and assume P/E of 10 & BV of 1.6 in 5 years time and discount rate of 25%. # Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant. · STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30% · BUY btw 15% to 30% · HOLD btw (15%) to 15% · RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

Asia / Europe - 03/18/11

Bilibala Finance’s 7 Top Holding by Region:
(with net present value in 1 year)
(46.3% of asset mix)
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 => HK$101.2 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
6. HSBC Holding (0005/HBC) US$67.3 BUY (pending to update)
7. IFSE A50 China Fund (2823) HK$22.4 STRONG BUY

· Mar 11 major transactions: MTR (0066) HK$29.1; China Resource Power (0836) HK$13.0; ESpirit Holding (0330) HK$37.1. I have to admit my mistake to invest in MTR & ESpirit Holding too soon, if I wait for one more day, I could have save a lot more, even though the unrealized loss was partially offset by the gain from China Resource Power
· Bilibala has increased China Mobile’s NPV by 5% after 2010 full year earnings release.
· 2010 profit up 3.9% to RM$120B
· 2010 EBITDA up 4.5% to RM$239B
· 2010 Revenue up 7.3% to RM$485B
· 2010 ARPU down 7.3% to RM$73
· Growth slowdown compare to prior years mainly due to 1) ARPU down; 2) sales & marketing cost; both because of competition from China Union Com & China Telecom
· Even if China Mobile’s growth slow down to 5.0% per year, its price over earnings ratio should still at 15. So I think its price is significantly under valued.
· Bilibala will write a sharing about Japan economy forecast.

# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

Top holding Asia/Europe 03/11/10

Bilibala Finance’s 5 Top Holding by Region:
(with net present value in 1 year)
Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
6. HSBC Holding (0005/HBC) US$67.3 BUY (pending to update)
7. IFSE A50 China Fund (2823) HK$22.4 STRONG BUY
· Mar 11 major transactions: n/a
· Japan huge magnitude 8.9 earthquake & 33 feet high Tsunami. Boats, cars and trucks were tossed around like toys in the water after a small tsunami hit the town.
· Pray that the government can save as many survivors as possible promptly.
· Geopolitical risk & concerns in Middle East and North Africa are still heating up, can u imagine few strong, powerful governor (for years) fell down at the same time within just 2-3 months?
· No one can tell what will happen next and who will rule those countries. Some think about the movie 2012 or Jesus’ 2nd coming…..
· to me, I think of one scripture: “And in the days of those kings, the God of heaven will put up a kingdom which will never come to destruction, and its power will never be given into the hands of another people, and all these kingdoms will be broken and overcome by it, but it will keep its place for ever.” (Daniel 2:44)
· All the kings are full of power, and all those can gone in a second, who is the real ruler in history?
· If our LORD is the true ruler in all time, should we set aside a time with Him, do a prior to 2010 performance review and set our post 2011 objectives for Him??
· If our LORD is the true ruler in all time, who should we afraid of? Our boss? The government? Recession?
· Lol, I know it is easy to say than do….
· Lots of financial release will be on late March or early April, I will comment more by that time.

# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

Top holding - Asia/Europe

Bilibala Finance’s 5 Top Holding by Region:
(with net present value @ 2010)
Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
6. HSBC Holding (0005/HBC) US$67.3 BUY
7. IFSE A50 China Fund (2823) HK$22.4 STRONG BUY
· Mar 11 major transactions: n/a
· Are you qualify to get $6k from HKG government? It has lots of arguments on:
· How should government deal with the HK$2.3T reserve?
· Whether $6k cash out is helpful to resolve society issue or not?
· Whether government should change its fiscal plan that easily?
· I voted for $6k cash to everyone with HK ID ga, cuz I think that’s the fairest and effective way to re-distribute from “too rich” government
· It is worth to discuss these topics before you plan on how to spend it.
· I am planning to buy MTR because MTR 2010 results looks great.
· 2010 EPS up 24% to HK$2.1, revenue (HKG fare & Others) up thanks to launch of MTR in Australia & Sweden in 2H2010 (even though they can’t make any $ at this stage)
· Growth opportunities are all over the world with continue enjoyment of the transportation monopoly position

# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

Top holding in Asia/Europe

Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
· Hong Kong & China stock market continue to get pressure thanks to China government’s macroeconomic alignment. And as the Middle East Revolution heat up, cash flow was being pulled out from Asian market back to America, that’s why in short term, America stock market experience a higher than expected gains while Asian market looks flat.
· Investment is an art to draw a meaningful picture with the long term value & short term price. If a given new event do not impact long term value but somehow causing a drop in short term price, one should not have to worry.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 12/02/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 HOLD => BUY
5. Shiu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY

• Irish finally got its $$ and the next bond maturity bubble in Europe is Spain & Portugal. Wall street analysts make it sounds like a crisis. In fact, those are simply finding new bondholders to replace their old bonds.
• I think Europe will struggle with slow economy growth for years. The way Europe handle financial crisis is completely opposite than USA. In USA, the quantitative easing buy t-bills, increase money supply in order to prevent deflation, USA increase spending & Debt GDP ratio to boost economy. On the other hand, Europe focus on cutting expenses, reduce debt & reduce money supply. I still think quantitative easing will be a better approach.
• 2 weeks ago I said Hong Kong stock market climb up from 19,000 to 25,000, then drop back to 23,000 is a reasonable adjustments. You can see a strong support at 23,000. I think it will rise back to 25,000 soon.
• I don’t think North Korean issues is a big deal, there will not be a war, but the conflict will continue until I dunno, until North Korean leaders “golden” father & son collapsed, um……..say few years later.

Top holding in USA 11/22/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

Irish financial crisis: Investors over-react the impact: 1) Irish’s fund shortage is due to broken of real estate bubble & creating mortgage bad debt in many Irish banks. So Irish government inject capital to banks and ran out of $$ in short term; 2) It is not big crisis because:

• EU has $750B emerging fund to support any member country in need;
• The shortage is not due to long term structural credit issues;
• The debt renewal amount is lots smaller than Greek, while Irish’s economy is better than Greek

I think it will settle this week.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 11/16/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL)
2. China Life (2628/LFC)
3. China Construction Bank (0939)
4. Total SA (TOT)
5. Shiu On Land (0272)

Market Fall: global stock market fall because of the following worries:

• Slow economy growth (every once a while, such worry came back)
• Inflation risk (will it come? No & Yes!! No, cuz consumer product index keep at around 2.0% and even in China, it is only 4.9%; Yes, commodity price rise like crazy. So it came and it will come, but in a non-tradition format – not in consumer product)
• Interest rate will rise (in China) (in order to balance between money supply, consumer product price and keep the borrowing / assets ratio low to prevent a potential bubble, I think a reasonable rise in interest is healthy to the economy. Under this interest rate rising expectation, China Life should be the biggest gainer cuz it will lower its insurance reserve liabilities.
• Default risk of the European PIIGS bonds
• To me, those worry are understandable but I think the true reason is a reasonable stock market adjustment. We should see the market stabilized at this point where S&P 500 at around 1170 and Hang Seng at around 23,000.

I’ve switched Exxon Mobil to Total SA, a France based integrated oil & gas company, cuz I want to increase my investment in Euro zone to have a more diversify portfolio while I think Total SA’s value is being more understated compare to Exxon Mobil.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 11/01/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL)
2. China Life (2628/LFC)
3. China Construction Bank (0939)
4. Shiu On Land (0272)
5. HSBC (0005/HBC)

• China Life: premium up 23% vs 3q09, total assets up 4.0% vs 2q10 while equity up 7.7% vs 2q10, as Shang Hang A stock break through 3k pt & interest rate up 25 bps, I think China Life will continue to increase shareholders equity value in 4q10 and so on, regardless of how much the reported net income is. In terms of stock value, I think today’s price is quite reasonable, not in big sales.
• China Construction Bank: results look awesome!! I still haven’t completed the trend analysis, will let all u know. It rise 13% from the day I came back to Canada, price over book rise to 2.43 and estimate price over earning rise to 10.1. um…………..still look reasonable but not in big sales.
• Bilibala will sold BYD Ltd. (not a wise decision to invest at 1st place, not cuz it is not good, but cuz I am not that familiar about the company plus I am worry commodity & labour cost will rise at least 10% per year which will hurt BYD’s earning) & invest more Shiu On Land today.

AEGON restructure

Bilibala: pray that my company will not put my division on sales la.

Posted on 04/05/10 at 1:30pm by Zacks

Keeping pace with its ongoing restructuring program that began in 2009, Aegon NV (AEG) announced the sale of its funeral insurance business in Netherlands. Although the sale took place on Feb 1, 2010, it was announced on Friday. The company’s insurance unit has been disposed off to Egeria, a Dutch investment firm for €212 million.

The decision of vending off the funeral insurance business was in line with the Aegon’s strategy of reorganizing its product portfolio and getting rid of the problematic units. In February 2009, Aegon disposed off its institutional spread-based business in the U.S.

The runoff will significantly reduce the company’s exposure to credit risk and help lessen overall sensitivity to fluctuations in financial markets. We believe the sale is expected to have a positive effect on Aegon’s excess capital position and is projected to result in a modest book gain in the first half of 2010.

As such, the company has also been laying off a substantial number of its employees in order to rightsize its operations in the Netherlands. As a result, Aegon’s total workforce declined 7% in 2009 to just over 25,000 employees, mainly due to restructuring in the U.S. and the U.K., as well as the sale of real estate brokerage activities in the Netherlands and life insurance operations in Taiwan.

Earnings Highlights
On Mar 29, Aegon reported the filing of its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year 2009 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Accordingly, Aegon reported fourth quarter net income of €393 million, which came in substantially ahead of the net loss of €1.18 billion recorded in the year-ago quarter. The significant swing was primarily the result of improved earnings, realized gains on investments and lower impairments.

During 2009, the company realized cost reductions of €250 million, significantly ahead of the target of €150 million. Excluding the impact of restructuring charges, increased employee benefit expenses in the U.S. and currency movements, operating costs decreased in 2009 by 5% from 2008.

For full year 2009, Aegon’s underlying earnings before tax amounted to €1.2 billion, compared to €1.6 billion in 2008. New life sales declined to €2.0 billion from €2.6 billion in 2008, primarily due to weak market activity based on volatile market conditions.

However, gross deposits increased to €23.6 billion against €22.4 billion in 2008, while revenue generating investments increased to €361 billion against €332 billion in 2008. Capital position remained modestly strong.

Aegon continues to move ahead with its strategic priorities of reallocating capital towards business with higher growth and return prospects, to improve growth and returns from existing businesses and to reduce financial market risk.

MetLife buying AIG's Alico unit

Bilibala: AIG's brand name was totaly distoried during the financial crisis, I don't think is smart to acquire any of its subsidaries. Insurance is a competitive industry, there are almost no product differentiate at all other than the corporate brand value and its credit rating.

Policyholders are willing to pay higher cost of insuruance for a famlious and reliable brand. Once its brand name being distoried, there will be minimum value of new business.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62622120100308?feedType=nl&feedName=usbusinessearly

MetLife said on Monday that it would pay AIG $6.8 billion in cash and about $8.7 billion in equity for its American Life Insurance Co (Alico) unit, confirming an earlier Reuters report.
Founded in 1921, Alico sells life, accident and health insurance as well as retirement and wealth management products in more than 50 countries. The deal will help MetLife, already the largest life insurer in the United States and Mexico, diversify revenue by product, distribution and geography.

MetLife will get a boost in Japan, the world's second-largest life insurance market, which accounted for 70 percent of Alico's pre-tax operating income in fiscal year. Alico will also strengthen MetLife's position in Europe and move it into a top five market position in many emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.

MetLife expects the deal to increase its 2011 operating earnings per share by 45 cents to 55 cents, excluding one-time expenses of 12 cents. It sees annualized post-tax cost savings of $50 million to $75 million.

"Rarely does one come across a deal that has such a strong strategic fit and is also such a financially attractive proposition," MetLife Chief Executive Robert Henrikson said during a conference call.

Still, such a large deal comes with risks, said Clark Troy, a senior analyst at Aite Group.
Alico's strength in Japan also ties MetLife's fortunes to an aging society with a huge public debt overhang, he said.

"If (Japan) falters or slips back into deflation, MetLife might face challenges growing revenue," Troy said in an e-mail late Sunday, before the deal was announced.

FED PAYDAY
The deal comes after AIG agreed to sell its Asian life unit, American International Assurance (AIA), to Britain's Prudential for $35.5 billion, the largest insurance sector deal ever.

The AIA and Alico deals will allow AIG to repay the U.S. government about $31.5 billion in cash, with more expected as the insurer sells Prudential and MetLife securities over time.

AIG will use the $6.8 billion in cash from the Alico deal to redeem part of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's $9 billion preferred interest in a vehicle that holds the unit.

The proceeds from the two deals should help AIG pay down all of its Fed debt, but it will still leave the government holding roughly $47 billion in equity investments, including the amount drawn under a $30 billion equity line. The government will still have a nearly 80 percent stake in AIG.

To untangle itself from AIG, the government is likely to follow a strategy similar to what it has used with Citigroup Inc (C.N) in a process that will probably take years.

The sale of Alico comes after months of negotiations and became possible after the New York Fed, advised by Morgan Stanley (MS.N), agreed in March 2009 to swap its debt into equity in special purpose vehicles that AIG created to hold AIA and Alico.

Early last year, MetLife offered about $11 billion for the unit, but the price went up in the months after March 2009.

METLIFE STAKE
The equity portion of the price consists of 78.2 million shares of MetLife common stock valued at $3 billion, 6.9 million shares of contingent convertible preferred stock valued at $2.7 billion, and 40 million equity units with an aggregate stated value of $3 billion.

The common stock and equivalents would give AIG a 14 percent ownership in MetLife, MetLife Chief Financial Officer William Wheeler said.

The equity units are set to convert into common shares roughly three years after closing, Wheeler said. Taking those into account, AIG's ownership in MetLife would go above 20 percent, sources familiar with the matter said on Sunday.

But Wheeler said he expected AIG to start selling the shares as soon as it could under a lock-up agreement.

"I am not sure how much shares they will own at any one time, but I suspect it won't get close to 20 percent," Wheeler said.

AIG must vote its shares in proportion to the way the rest of MetLife's outstanding shareholders do, Wheeler said.

MetLife expects to finance the cash portion of the deal with issuances of $3.1 billion in senior debt and $2 billion of common stock, as well as $1.75 billion in cash on hand.

Both boards have approved the transaction, which the companies expect to close by the end of 2010.

Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX) was lead adviser to MetLife, which was also advised by Barclays Capital (BARC.L), Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC.N), Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and HSBC (HSBA.L).

AIG is being advised by Citigroup, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Blackstone Group (BX.N), according to several sources.

AIG shares were up 5.3 percent to $29.58, while MetLife was up 5.1 percent to $40.90, both during morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

(Reporting by Paritosh Bansal; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn, Dave Zimmerman and John Wallace)

主权债务危机

Bilibala: good article to read.

这场席卷世界的金融海啸是不是差不多已经过去了？从金融体系整体的风险角度讲，最坏的时间已经过去了。不过从政府财政角度看，最坏的时间远未到来。在过去18个月，各国政府干了一件事——拼命地花钱。在今后十年，政府必须干另外一件事——拼命地还钱。花钱并不容易，还钱则更难。主权债务问题将是一个挥之不去的阴霾，长时间地困扰着市场，并随时可能制造出新的金融动荡。

希腊债务危机为现代资本主义历史揭开了新的一章。发达国家的主权信用变得不再可靠，曾是零风险的国债似乎也不再是“risk free”。希腊一个2400亿欧元的经济，今年到期的债务就有高达532亿欧元需要偿还。这个国家的储蓄率在过去十年降低了一半，贸易逆差占GDP的比率在同期翻了一倍。金融危机以及随后的信贷市场收缩，不过是将过去十年经济健康的恶化暴露了出来；发行新债艰难，不过是将几任政府的无能和遮掩一次性地清算出来。

欧洲的主权债务困境，希腊只是冰山之一角。PIGS（葡萄牙、爱尔兰、希腊和西班牙的第一个英文字母缩写）四国的财政赤字分别占到本国经济的9.3%、11.4%、12.5%和11.4%，几乎是IMF安全底线和欧盟财政守则所规定水平的3-4倍。这种财政赤字水平加上经常项目巨额赤字，在发达国家中及其罕见，在新兴市场国家中也会被列入高危一族了。希腊问题拖至今日，反映出欧洲联盟的结构性缺陷，不过希腊债务总额毕竟不大，无论欧盟或ＩＭＦ出手情况都可以得到纾缓。当西班牙这样的大国面临支付／偿还困境时，欧盟以及欧元才面临更大的考验。

接下来可能出事的是英国和法国财政，甚至美国。为拯救银行、刺激经济，法国的财政赤字高达GDP的8%，英国更是高达12.6%。奥巴马的2010年财政预算案中的财政赤字预计高达GDP的9.9%。不仅是财政开支需要维持在高位，经济不景下税收困难会滞后浮现。等央行开始加息时，国债利率上扬财政负担更重。笔者相信这些国家债务负担占经济的比重预计会在今后几年内持续上升，在两年后主权评级遭到质疑的可能性颇大，英国评级被调低似乎难以避免。

有意思的是，美欧巨大财政赤字问题久为市场所知，但是除希腊、爱尔兰等小国外，国债市场的利率仍维持在超低的水平，收益率与政府违约风险并不成比例。有分析员甚至将此时的国债市场称之为一个泡沫奇景。在雷曼倒闭后，市场波动极大，资金流入国债市场避险，拖低国债收益，这在2009年上半年是解释得通的。不过此后资金流出国债，在高风险市场寻求更高的回报，但是国债利率依然低迷，这就耐人寻味了。笔者相信低利率是量化宽松政策的结果，央行大手吸纳政府发行的国债，通过人为制造出来的流动性和需求来维持国债的高价。

然而，天下没有不散之筳宴，央行的超常规货币扩张差不多已经走到尽头，量化收缩已经箭在弦上。当各国央行退市时，人们会突然发现当年对国债价格并不敏感的买家已经消失。在过去，以中国、日本为首的高储蓄国家，为维持汇率稳定而大规模干预汇率，导致外汇储备暴涨。这批外汇储备投资强调安全性、流动性，政治意义高于商业回报，所以曾大量将资金投入回报并不吸引的国债市场（尤其是美国国债市场）。这批需求在危机后，已经大规模转向其它资产种类。

对发达国家国债的需求一定是有的，不过购买力由海外主权资金转向国内（或海外）退休基金及银行。它们对国债回报率的要求要远高过主权基金的要求，所以一旦央行退出量化宽松政策，国债利率的上涨幅度估计会明显大于政策利率的幅度。利率水平正常化，由商业利率开始。下一个潜在的全球性危机，或许由大国的国债市场开始。

本文原载于证券市场周刊，为个人观点，并非任何劝诱或投资建议。

陶冬

市場憂慮西班牙和葡萄牙陷入債務危機

今次觸發環球股市急挫，是市場憂慮歐元區內財赤嚴重的西班牙和葡萄牙會步希臘後塵陷入債務危機，拖垮歐元區經濟甚至觸發新一輪全球金融危機。

Bilibala => the financial situation in Europe is worse than in North America, not because of economy. USA debt to GDP ratio is just as high as countries in Europe. It is the regulation set up in Europe, instead of a united nation, Europian countries form a Union. In order the regulate such Union, it sets up certain the financial regulations which do not have flexibility like USA. If Europe willing to turn on its presss to print money out, the problem will solve right away.

繼希臘後，歐元區內經濟比重較大的西班牙和葡萄牙亦可能爆出財政問題，兩國政府最新拍賣的一批債券反應遠遠不及預期。如果想增加債券吸引力，西班牙和葡萄牙就要提高債券息率，但這樣做會令借貸成本增加，等同增加政府的財政赤字。

歐盟最新估計葡萄牙、希臘和西班牙的財赤原本已經很嚴重，去年的財赤佔國內生產總值接近甚至超過百分之十，如果再惡化，市場恐怕三個國家無力還債，後果可以很嚴重，最壞的情況是西班牙和葡萄牙一旦爆煲，會牽連整個歐洲甚至令歐元區瓦解，引發另一場全球金融危機。

可否避過這個最壞情況，保住西班牙是關鍵，因為西班牙的經濟規模相當大，在歐元區排第四大，差不多等如希臘、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭加起來的兩倍，但現時西班牙的失業人口高達四百萬，過去可以靠低利率去撐經濟，但金融海嘯後國家稅收減少，又不可以透過貨幣貶值去應付今次危機，如果連低息這武器都失去，的確有機會步希臘後塵爆發信貸危機。

面對種種危機，西班牙政府對國家財政和經濟復蘇仍然樂觀，聲稱有一系列政策去降低財赤。人稱「末日博士」的魯賓尼早前在達沃斯世界經濟論壇上曾經表示，一旦西班牙倒下，恐怕會對歐元區釀成災難。

而金融界對葡萄牙、愛爾蘭、希臘和西班牙四個歐元區內高負債率的計時炸彈，用她們國家英文名字頭開了個玩笑叫做PIGS，這四國曾被寄望是歐元區經濟發展的新引擎，但自金融海嘯後已變成歐洲經濟復蘇絆腳石。

Yes, cuz can't use printing press.

Warren against Kraft's deal

Bilibala: When you go to supermarket, u wish u will receive discount on things u need and u want to buy, same apply to investment. Value is your choice. You can invest or acquire something for the purpose of just keep expanding. You need to growth in the better and smart way!!

By Andrew Frye
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett, who worked behind the scenes to undermine Coca-Cola Co.’s bid for Quaker Oats 10 years ago, has gone public to rein in Kraft Foods Inc.’s Irene Rosenfeld in her quest to acquire Cadbury Plc.

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Kraft’s biggest shareholder, said today that Rosenfeld was seeking a “blank check” and urged fellow investors to oppose her plan to authorize the issuance as many as 370 million shares. Northfield, Illinois-based Kraft, which has bid 10.6 billion pounds ($17 billion) for Cadbury, first announced its intention in September to buy the company.

“It’s unusual for Berkshire to put out any sort of comment like this publicly,” said Glenn Tongue, a partner at T2 Partners LLC, which holds investments in Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire and Kraft and doesn’t want the foodmaker to increase its bid. “As a shareholder I love seeing this because at the current offer this deal makes plenty of sense.”

Buffett, who has said shareholders need to act like owners, is calling for caution in negotiations after Cadbury said Kraft’s offer was insufficient. In publicly urging investors to join him, the 79-year-old Berkshire chairman is drawing on his power as a 9.4-percent owner of Kraft and the standing he’s gained in financial markets as the world’s preeminent investor.

“If he says no, everybody else is going to pile on and say no too,” said Justin Fuller, a partner at Midway Capital Research & Management who runs the buffettologist.com Web site.

Berkshire said it may support a Cadbury takeover if it concludes this month that the final offer “does not destroy value for Kraft shareholders.” Buffett didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on what terms he would endorse.

‘Expensive Proposition’

“I don’t think that he’s opposed to the acquisition, I think he’s opposed to the use of stock,” said Gerald Martin, a finance professor at American University’s Kogod School of Business in Washington. “He feels that the shares are so undervalued that it would be an expensive proposition.”

Buffett won a global following as the “Oracle of Omaha” by profiting from investments in out-of-favor stocks and businesses. Berkshire, the biggest shareholder in Coca-Cola, American Express Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., used profits last year to buy stock in some of the world’s biggest companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Kraft rival Nestle SA.

Buffett was the most vocal dissenter on Atlanta-based Coca- Cola’s board when directors met in 2000 to discuss a $15.3 billion bid by then-Chief Executive Officer Douglas Daft for Quaker Oats, the maker of Gatorade, Cap’n Crunch cereal and Rice-A-Roni. Buffett argued the price was too high because a stock swap proposed as part of the deal would give up more than 10 percent of Coca-Cola, board member James Williams said in a 2004 interview.

‘Very Scarce’

The board voted against the acquisition and PepsiCo Inc. bought Quaker Oats instead, completing the purchase in August 2001 for $14 billion.

“I’m not surprised that Berkshire would resist issuing shares,” said Tom Russo, partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner, which holds Berkshire, Cadbury and Vevey, Switzerland-based Nestle. Buffett “has had the longstanding belief that equity capital is very scarce.”

Rosenfeld, CEO at Kraft since 2006, is seeking to buy the U.K.-based maker of Creme Eggs and Trident gum to expand its business outside the U.S. Kraft raised the cash portion of the Cadbury bid today after agreeing to sell pizza brands including DiGiorno and Tombstone to Nestle, the world’s largest food company.

Cadbury fell 3.2 percent to 779 pence in London, the biggest drop in eight months. Kraft added 91 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $28.34 at 3:11 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. That values Berkshire’s stake at more than $3.9 billion.

‘Very Expensive Currency’

Buffett said Kraft shares were “very expensive ‘currency’” after falling about 17 percent in the two years ended last week, and he criticized management for seeking to issue stock at current prices after repurchasing shares at $33 in 2007. Kraft executives “have to do a lot of things right to justify this price,” Buffett said in a September interview on CNBC.

“We agree that Kraft Foods shares are deeply undervalued,” the foodmaker said in a statement. “We intend to remain disciplined in this process.”

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Warren Buffett came out against Kraft's (KFT.N) $16.8 billion hostile offer for Britain's Cadbury (CBRY.L) as a threat to shareholder value, undermining the U.S. foodmaker's attempt to woo investors with a sweeter bid.

Deals
Kraft Chief Executive Irene Rosenfeld had sought to grab Cadbury investors' attention by raising the cash portion of its bid on Tuesday. But the rare intervention by Buffett a few hours later showed she has yet to win over Kraft's largest shareholder and one of the world's most admired investors, as well as giving Cadbury new ammunition in its defense.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) said in a statement it was voting against Kraft's proposal to float 370 million shares to fund the Cadbury bid while the company's stock remains undervalued, calling it a request for a blank check from shareholders. The company holds 9.4 percent of Kraft.

Berkshire said it could reconsider its vote if convinced the bid does not destroy shareholder value. Kraft could also ultimately offer fewer shares.

"It's very unusual for Buffett to speak out like this," said Justin Fuller, an analyst who follows Berkshire for Midway Capital Research & Management and publishes the Buffettologist.com blog.

"Cadbury doesn't want to do a deal at this price and this resistance from Kraft's largest shareholder hurts the deal's chances of getting done."

Cadbury Chairman Roger Carr quickly seized on the Berkshire statement as a sign that Rosenfeld was being squeezed in her most ambitious gambit yet as CEO.

"Kraft talks about discipline in making their derisory offer but it's really about management weakness," Carr said in a statement. "Their offer is limited by powerful Kraft shareholders restricting the stock content and constrained by Kraft's rating agencies limiting the cash content."

A source familiar with the situation said Kraft had been in constant communication with its largest shareholder throughout the Cadbury bid process, and that Buffett was apprised of Kraft's position before the Tuesday announcement.

But it appeared that the two sides did not see eye-to-eye, prompting the Berkshire statement.
"If Buffett votes against something -- that carries a great deal of weight with other shareholders .... When he says no, no is what he says and means," said Jerry Bruni, CEO and portfolio manager of J.V. Bruni and Co, based in Colorado Springs, Co.

Kraft shares were up 3.5 percent Tuesday afternoon while Cadbury slipped 3.2 percent. Cadbury shares are trading about 3 percent higher than Kraft's current offer, down from a spread of about 10 percent on Monday.

NESTLE DEAL FUNDS REVISED KRAFT OFFER
Earlier, Kraft revised its 10.4 billion pound ($16.8 billion) bid, offering shareholders the option of an additional 60 pence cash per share for the maker of Dairy Milk chocolate and Trident gum.
The extra cash brings the cash portion to 360p and is funded from a deal whereby Switzerland's Nestle (NESN.VX) will buy Kraft's North American frozen pizza business for $3.7 billion. Nestle also ruled itself out of any bid war for Cadbury.

Rosenfeld has stuck to her guns since her initial approach to Cadbury late last summer, determined not to overpay and convinced that a rival bidder would not emerge. Some Buffett watchers believe she could yet bring the Sage of Omaha on board.

"I don't think he's throwing a monkey wrench in the deal. This is Warren Buffett 101," said Frank Betz, a principal at Carret/Zane Capital Management LLP and an owner of Berkshire shares who has played bridge with Buffett.

A Kraft spokeswoman said the company agrees its shares are "deeply undervalued," would remain disciplined and would not do anything that hurts shareholder value.

"He is our largest investor and one of the most respected investors in the world, so of course we take his opinion seriously," she said of Buffett.

Cadbury shares fell to 779p on Tuesday, compared with Kraft's cash-and-share bid value of about 758p. Many analysts and investors still expect Kraft will need to pay 800 pence per share or above to win over Cadbury.

KRAFT STILL A FRONT-RUNNER
Buffett's surprise announcement overshadowed news that a key rival to Kraft took itself, and possibly other suitors, out of the running.

"Nestle's decision effectively leaves Kraft as the overwhelming front-runner .... Nestle's decision effectively removes Ferrero and Hershey from the field as competitive forces," said analyst Jeremy Batstone-Carr at Charles Stanley.

U.S.-based Hershey (HSY.N) and Italy's Ferrero expressed interest in bidding for Cadbury in November, but they need to come up with fully financed bids by January 23 to succeed under British rules. Analysts had expected Nestle might team up with Hershey, while Ferrero was seen as needing financial help.

Kraft said it would give detailed terms of the alternative cash offer by a January 19 deadline under British takeover rules. The U.S. food maker also extended its deadline for Cadbury shareholders to accept its offer to February 2.

(Additional reporting by Raji Menon, Victoria Howley, Jessica Hall, Michael Erman, Sam Cage, Jessica Wohl and Aaron Pressman; Editing by Richard Chang)

Procter & Gamble vs Colgate-Palmolive

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/12/09/better-buy-pg-or-cl.aspx
By Motley Fool Staff December 9, 2009

=> good articles with comparison on important factors. One thing Motley Fool didn't mention is the weight on each of those factors are in fact different.
=> As a consumer staple company, P/E ratio is always important, net margin is the 2nd and follow by sales growth (not earnings), debt equity ratio proper & return on equity are less important.

In a new Motley Fool series, we pit two stocks against each other on five criteria to determine the better buy.
Today's matchup is Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) vs. Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL). Using five short-of-scientific-but-carefully chosen criteria, let's determine which is the better buy according to the numbers:

Procter & Gamble vs Colgate-Palmolive

1. P/E ratio: 14.6 vs 20.2
2. 5 year growth rate: 8.4% vs 10.7%
3. net margin: 14.3% vs 14.46%
4. debt equity ratio: 0.54 vs 1.17
5. # of stars: ***** vs ****

Round 1: Cheapness
Advantage: Procter & Gamble. Cheapness is determined by P/E ratio. The lower the better. Be careful of earnings near zero that skew the ratio, one-time gains and losses, and pasts that aren’t indicative of futures (the more dynamic the industry, the more this is true).

Round 2: Growth
Advantage: Colgate-Palmolive. Growth here is the trailing 5-year EPS growth rate. This trailing earnings growth helps put notoriously-optimistic Wall Street projections in perspective.

Round 3: Operations
Advantage: Colgate-Palmolive. Net margin percentage shows how efficiently a company turns revenue into profit. The more similar the business models, the more relevant the comparison.

Round 4: Balance sheet
Advantage: Procter & Gamble. As with net margins, the debt to capital ratio is most relevant in comparing companies in similar industries. In this battle we give the nod to the lower-debt company, but attention should also be paid to the cost of debt, interest coverage ratios, and the stability of the business (the more stable a company’s operations, the more debt it can safely carry).

Round 5: CAPS rating
Advantage: Procter & Gamble. A company’s CAPS rating is our community’s opinion of the stock. You can get more information on your stocks -- and our community’s opinions of those stocks -- by clicking over to CAPS area.

Each of these five rankings need more context -- like, how these companies stack up against key competitors such as Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) and Clorox (NYSE: CLX). But these basic numbers suggest that Procter & Gamble is a better buy. What do you think? Let us know in the comments section below.

Gmail電郵受病毒攻擊

2009年 10月 7日 00:09
http://chinese.wsj.com/big5/20091007/BUS008108.asp?source=channel

英

國廣播公司(BBC)週二報導稱﹐谷歌(Google Inc., GOOG)已向該電視頻道證實﹐其電子郵件系統Gmail受到了釣魚計劃(Phishing Scheme)病毒的影響。

谷 歌發言人表示﹐公司近來發現各類電子郵箱都受到了釣魚計劃病毒的影響﹐其中就包括Gmail郵件帳戶﹔黑客利用該病毒獲取用戶電子郵件帳戶的保密信息。發 言人稱﹐已強制受影響帳戶重新設置密碼。谷歌表示﹐該病毒並未破壞Gmail的安全系統﹐而是一個誘騙用戶向黑客洩露個人信息的騙局。

HSBC CEO To Move To HK

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090925-705112.html

By Aries Poon and Chester Yung Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC) said Friday Group Chief Executive Michael Geoghegan will relocate to Hong Kong from London in February, as the U.K.-headquartered bank beefs up its presence in the Greater China region and emerging markets in general.

=> Yes, that is a good decision and a decision I've subspected long ago.

The bank, which was founded in Hong Kong in 1865 and moved its headquarters to London in 1992, is relocating its top executive at a time when Asia appears as the first region to emerge from the global financial downturn.

Apart from continuing his role as Group CEO, Geoghegan will replace Vincent Cheng as chairman of the bank's Asian unit, Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corp., commonly known as Hongkong Bank, also from February.

"The fast-growing markets, particularly of Asia, are changing the pattern of the world economy," HSBC Chairman Stephen Green told reporters in a news briefing.

"Nothing that's happened in the financial crisis...of the last two years changes our view that this trend is going to continue."

Green said emerging markets, which includes Asia, Latin America and the Middle-East, accounted for around 60% of the bank's profits in the first half.

At the press conference, Geoghegan reiterated the ambitions by the bank - Europe's biggest by market value - to expand further in China, one of the bank's fastest growing and strategically important markets.

"We want to be at the gateway to China. Being in China itself is a logical goal and the place to work on it is Hong Kong," said Geoghegan at the news conference. "You must expect Asian businesses to grow, and logically we are going to be here."

Cheng, currently Hongkong Bank's chairman, will remain an executive director and will continue to help the bank develop its businesses in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, HSBC said.
Cheng said his reassignment was part of the bank's overall plan to focus more on emerging markets, and not due to his health or personal reasons. Cheng, 61, was named chairman of Hongkong Bank in 2005.

=> I like Cheng, too bad if he need to reassign and being replaced :( He has wisdom & vision, at the same time very conservative in banking (only lend $ to credit worthy individual & crop). This is the kind of style I think a banker should have.

He said he has always taken a keen interest in China. "Now I can spend more time and focus on China."

Meanwhile, Peter Wong, currently an executive director of Hongkong Bank, will replace Sandy Flockhart as chief executive. Flockhart will be appointed chairman of personal and commercial banking globally and will remain based in Hong Kong.

Return To Roots
The return of the group chief executive's position to Hong Kong comes 17 years after the bank relocated its headquarters to London from Hong Kong after it acquired all of the U.K.'s Midland Bank PLC.

Many analysts saw the bank's move to London in 1992 as politically motivated amid uncertainties ahead of Hong Kong's handover to Chinese rule in 1997. HSBC was set up in colonial Hong Kong to finance trade between Europe, India and China.

One of Hong Kong's oldest "hongs," or diversified trading groups, Jardine Matheson Holdings, also made moves out of Hong Kong ahead of the handover, and transferred its primary stock market listing to London.

HSBC Holdings will remain domiciled in the U.K. "for tax purposes" and has no plans to move, the bank said. Green, the bank's chairman, will remain based in London.

=> oh no, that's not good, because tax in U.K. is much higher than in H.K.

But China's rapid economic growth has proved attractive for companies like HSBC, which saw its market as being too important to ignore, and has been expanding its presence there in recent years.

The lending giant is planning an initial public offering in Shanghai that will help raise the company's profile in mainland China. The bank said last month it hired advisers to handle the IPO plan but didn't name the banks or specify the offering's time frame.

HSBC has an 18.6% stake in Bank of Communications Co., China's fifth-largest lender by assets; a 16.7% stake in Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China Ltd.; an 8% stake in Bank of Shanghai Co.; and a 49% stake in HSBC Jintrust Co, a Shanghai-based fund company.

HSBC has in recent years made attempts to expand in developed markets, but with mixed success. It purchased mortgage lender House International Inc. in the U.S. in 2003, but earlier this year decided to pull out of the consumer lending market in the country amid sharp losses, and added it may review its U.S. credit card business.

Its business in Europe has also been affected by the credit crunch. In the first half, pretax profit for HSBC's European operations fell 42% to US$2.98 billion from US$5.18 billion a year earlier.
By contrast, HSBC's Hong Kong first-half pretax profit fell just 19%, while pretax profit for the rest of Asia declined 23% from a year earlier.

-By Aries Poon and Chester Yung, Dow Jones Newswires; 852-2832-2332; aries.poon@dowjones.com

Espirt 4q09 results

《經濟通通訊社２６日專訊》思捷環球 （００３３０）公布截至今年６月底全年業績，經營溢利為５７﹒２９億元，跌２６％，經營溢利率為１６﹒６％，上年度為２０﹒７％，以及純利率為１３﹒８％，上年度為１７﹒３％。上半年毛利率為５２﹒１％，去年同期為５３﹒６％。集團的現金淨額為４８億元，去年度為６５億元。
集團的營業額為３４５億元，跌７﹒３％，按本地貨幣計算按年變動－０﹒２％，屬相對穩定。營業額按報告貨幣計算按年下降７﹒４％，反映歐元兌美元 平均匯率按年貶值約６﹒７％，或於本財政年度下半年按年貶值約１３％。
集團的營業額主要源自可比較店舖銷售額上升３﹒５％、總銷售面積增加及來自Ｅｓｐｒｉｔ客戶忠誠度計劃的會員貢獻日漸增長。由於面對艱難的經營環境，批發客戶持續減細訂單規模，令批發營業額下降從而抵銷集團的營業額增長。
零售及批發分別為集團的總營業額貢獻１６３﹒５１億元及１７９﹒０６億元，分別佔集團總營業額的４７﹒４％及５１﹒９％。
按本地貨幣計算的零售業務營業額按年增長１０％，批發營業額以本地貨幣計算按年下降８％。
另外，集團透過增設１０４間直接管理零售店舖，於今年６月３０日，該集團擁有８０１間直接管理零售店舖，總零售銷售面積逾３１﹒３萬平方米。（ｃｙ）

ESprit insider sold

06/25/09 遭策略股東頻頻減持的思捷<00330.hk>連跌3天，今早低見$44.6，險守最後防線100天線($44.51)，現造$45.05，逆市續跌1.7%，成交262萬股。

Bilibala's comments:
I look at ESprit's 3q09 & 2008 results. I cannot find anything that is really go wrong which will turn its sales & profit to go down further.

Weak economy in Germany & Europe is the major concern, the change in management is another. Other than that, it looks fine. So I decided to hold and watch it further.

Biggest losers & gainers

Banks' profits
Red and black ink
Jun 24th 2009

From http://www.economist.com/

Banks with the biggest profits and losses last year
THE balance sheets of many banks took a pounding last year.

• Royal Bank of Scotland, which received a government bail-out of $3 billion, posted the largest loss of $59.3 billion, according to an annual review of the world's leading banks by The Banker magazine.
• Citigroup and Wells Fargo also fell into the red by over $45 billion. But all three are still counted among the 12 biggest banks in the world by tier-one capital, albeit at a lower rank than in 2007. Not all was doom and gloom.
• ICBC turned a $21.3 billion profit, one of four Chinese banks to make the top ten.
• HSBC and Barclays, British banks that showed better risk management than RBS, also saw a decent profit.