Showing posts with label Region-Canada. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Region-Canada. Show all posts
4.04.2011
America - 04/01/11
America (52.6% of asset mix) (with net present value in 1 year) 1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY 2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$754.6 BUY 3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY 4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 => US$25.2 HOLD => BUY 5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD 6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update) 7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY (pending to update) · Mar 11 major transactions: switch Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$52.0 to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.3; add Canadian Pacific CA$61.20; sold TransCanada at CA$39.2 · General Electric may get into lawsuit on Japan’s nuclear crisis. So far, analysts think it is very unlikely for GE to have a high contingency loss. On the other hand, given the fact that lots of people rise concern about the security of nuclear power, Bilibala think GE will receive lots of additional orders · government will not and cannot replace all nuclear plant at once, clearer energy to use are wind & solar, which both will benefit GE · in order to improve security & safety, government need to spend more on existing nuclear plant, which will benefit GE as well · Investors rise concerns on the internal control of Berkshire Hathaway on how Warren Buffett handle David Sokol purchase of Lubrizol stocks in Jan 11 just before Berkshire Hathaway announce to acquire it in Mar 11 & took a capital gain of $3M. To me, even Mr Buffett think Sokol did nothing wrong, as a CEO of a well respected giant corporation, the way he managed this issue should be done better by taking action and disclose it earlier. · As some of you hold RIM (Research in Motion), let me spend some time to share my opinion. · 2010 revenue & profit up 33% & 47% to US$19.9B & US$3.4B compare to last year while net margin improved from 16.4% to 17.1% · According to its own outlook, 2011 revenue & profit will up 41% & 22% to US$28.0B & US$4.2B while net margin will fall from 17.1% to 14.8% (with a estimated 2011 market shares in smart phone of about 15%) · Some analysts said RIM will be the next Nortel Network, Bilibala don’t think that will be the case cuz: 1. RIM’s earning growth is strong, above 20% per year, while price over earnings ratio is just 9, in comparison to Nortel’s tiny earnings and over 100 P/E before it fall, they are totally different 2. RIM has no long term debt, while Nortel had tones!! · Yes, RIM’s growth is slowing down, its profit margin is dropping, but given its P/E ratio at 9, PEG ratio of 0.5. I still think RIM should have potential to climb back to CA$70. Even though I won’t recommend a BUY, but for those who are holding it, Bilibala’s suggestion is to hold till release of 1st quarter (around jun 2011), the price should climb back because I think its earnings will beat expectation. · With more information, Bilibala will revised Manulife Financial’s Japan earthquake impact. · Assume 30,000 death, 80% insurance penetration, 8% market shares, CA$0.5M coverage, 80% loss & found & submitted claims, offset with 10% reserve release, the additional losses set up for the event will be CA$0.7B, less 29% tax rate, after tax impact will be CA$0.49B, while equity market rebound, estimate drop in EPS is about CA$0.3. # Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant. · STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30% · BUY btw 15% to 30% · HOLD btw (15%) to 15% · RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
3.28.2011
America - 03/25/11
America (53.6% of asset mix) (with net present value in 1 year) 1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY 2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$754.6 BUY 3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY 4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 HOLD 5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD 6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update) 7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY · Mar 11 major transactions: switch Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$52.0 to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.3; add Canadian Pacific C$61.20; add Manulife (MFC) between C$15.8-C$16.2 · Manulife Financial: no revised adjustment on $1.2B reserve change due to Japan earthquake. Claims cost increase as # of death rise will offset by equity market recovered. The actual reserve # may be lesser. · Research in Motion release its 4q10 earnings, above expectation but lower its 1q11 sales, trigger the shares down 11% on Friday. Its blackberry continue to grow in # of sales, however, to lots of individual customers, Apple & Google are a much better choice. Its Playbook launch too late, again, no one think it will win the battle. On the other hand, the share price is just $55, with P/E ratio lower than 9. Is this a opportunity or not? To Bilibala who has already hold Google, I won’t consider it. # Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant. · STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30% · BUY btw 15% to 30% · HOLD btw (15%) to 15% · RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
3.21.2011
America - 03/21/11
Bilibala Finance’s 7 Top Holding by Region:
(with net present value in 1 year)
(53.7% of asset mix)
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$754.6 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update)
7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY (pending to update)
· Mar 11 major transactions: switch Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$52.0 to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.3; add Manulife (MFC) between C$15.8-C$16.2 add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0
· Warren Buffett pull the trigger to buy Lubrizol, a lubricant maker for $9B. Can’t tell whether it is good or not, but global demand on lubricant are rising. Also Berkshire Hathaway held 10% share in Munich Re (10% SwissRe is preferred shares only, will have no impact), It sure took the hit from Japan earthquake
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
(with net present value in 1 year)
(53.7% of asset mix)
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$754.6 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update)
7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY (pending to update)
· Mar 11 major transactions: switch Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$52.0 to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.3; add Manulife (MFC) between C$15.8-C$16.2 add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0
· Warren Buffett pull the trigger to buy Lubrizol, a lubricant maker for $9B. Can’t tell whether it is good or not, but global demand on lubricant are rising. Also Berkshire Hathaway held 10% share in Munich Re (10% SwissRe is preferred shares only, will have no impact), It sure took the hit from Japan earthquake
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
3.17.2011
review Manulife on impact due to Japan earthquake
I try not to analysis for terrible events, cuz I think in certain degree that is unethical.
I changed my mind, read details from the following link:
http://bilibala-life.blogspot.com/2011/03/blog-post_16.html
Ok, how’s the earthquake impact Manulife? & is Act of God need to pay claim?
Summary
To me, it is over-react just like what most ppl do in history when bad news happen.
Life insurance need to pay claim for Act of God. P&C insurance may not, depends on the type of policy.
Analysis
Yes, from a growth perspective, Japan’s sales growth is huge in 2010, but from the corporate Japan business is tiny.
Japan’s Premium & Deposit is about 3.5% of the entire corporation (you can’t just look at 1st year premium growth when you calculate the benefit & claims in earthquake)
Japan’s asset under management (included insurance reserve) is about 5.9% of MFC’s AUM - US$28B ($11B in insurance & $17B in variable annuities)
Assume 15,000 dead (+4000 confirmed dead & +9000 missing) with general 8% market shares & 80% insurance penetration and each with a coverage of said C$1M, Manulife may set asided $1.0B addition reserve, after tax, will be about $0.7B.
C$0.7B is about 2.6% of Manulife’s book value while 2011 original estimate earnings after tax are C$2.0B.
Manulife’s book value (before dividend) will still go up by 5.2% to C$28.2B after this addition reserve.
Compare to its share price, down by 8.6% to C$16.0 since the earthquake.
Other concerns
· Since the earthquake has triggered a downside in equity market and a potential slow down in economy in 2011, if market fall 10% (another 5% from today’s), Manulife will loss $0.7B.
· Partially offset by $0.2B on reserve release as government debt interest rate go higher by 20 bps
· Usually, premium & deposit growth rate will go up, lapse rate will go down, claims will go down…..in the next 3 years after earthquake. But I will not take those benefit into account
Conclusion
Overall impact of $1.2B to net earnings or C$0.67 per share.
Bilibala’s previous NPV for Manulife Financial is C$31.4, and based on all the above calculation, it will reduced to C$30.7
If you think that’s too good to be true. Then take the overall wall/bay street 12 month’s target price (which is C$19.27) and reduced by $0.67 will be C$18.6 (around 15% above current market value).
PS:
In theory the nuclear plant keep cooling down every second, right at this moment, the situation still ok, and market will rebound soon. What if the nuclear plant finally & completely meltdown? It is not the meltdown ppl worry, but the worry trigger the hearts & the market to meltdown, until either 1) the nuclear plant really meltdown; 2) it's under control. Either way, the market will recover (a lot greater & much more supportable if it is under control).
I changed my mind, read details from the following link:
http://bilibala-life.blogspot.com/2011/03/blog-post_16.html
Ok, how’s the earthquake impact Manulife? & is Act of God need to pay claim?
Summary
To me, it is over-react just like what most ppl do in history when bad news happen.
Life insurance need to pay claim for Act of God. P&C insurance may not, depends on the type of policy.
Analysis
Yes, from a growth perspective, Japan’s sales growth is huge in 2010, but from the corporate Japan business is tiny.
Japan’s Premium & Deposit is about 3.5% of the entire corporation (you can’t just look at 1st year premium growth when you calculate the benefit & claims in earthquake)
Japan’s asset under management (included insurance reserve) is about 5.9% of MFC’s AUM - US$28B ($11B in insurance & $17B in variable annuities)
Assume 15,000 dead (+4000 confirmed dead & +9000 missing) with general 8% market shares & 80% insurance penetration and each with a coverage of said C$1M, Manulife may set asided $1.0B addition reserve, after tax, will be about $0.7B.
C$0.7B is about 2.6% of Manulife’s book value while 2011 original estimate earnings after tax are C$2.0B.
Manulife’s book value (before dividend) will still go up by 5.2% to C$28.2B after this addition reserve.
Compare to its share price, down by 8.6% to C$16.0 since the earthquake.
Other concerns
· Since the earthquake has triggered a downside in equity market and a potential slow down in economy in 2011, if market fall 10% (another 5% from today’s), Manulife will loss $0.7B.
· Partially offset by $0.2B on reserve release as government debt interest rate go higher by 20 bps
· Usually, premium & deposit growth rate will go up, lapse rate will go down, claims will go down…..in the next 3 years after earthquake. But I will not take those benefit into account
Conclusion
Overall impact of $1.2B to net earnings or C$0.67 per share.
Bilibala’s previous NPV for Manulife Financial is C$31.4, and based on all the above calculation, it will reduced to C$30.7
If you think that’s too good to be true. Then take the overall wall/bay street 12 month’s target price (which is C$19.27) and reduced by $0.67 will be C$18.6 (around 15% above current market value).
PS:
In theory the nuclear plant keep cooling down every second, right at this moment, the situation still ok, and market will rebound soon. What if the nuclear plant finally & completely meltdown? It is not the meltdown ppl worry, but the worry trigger the hearts & the market to meltdown, until either 1) the nuclear plant really meltdown; 2) it's under control. Either way, the market will recover (a lot greater & much more supportable if it is under control).
3.14.2011
Top holding - America 03/11/11
Bilibala Finance’s 5 Top Holding by Region:
(with net present value in 1 year)
American
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 => US$754.6 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update)
7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY (pending to update)
· Mar 11 major transactions: switch to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.34; add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0; add American Express (AXP) US$43.2
· Why Bilibala buy Suncor? Bilibala sold Petro Canada in 2008 at $37.0 when it announced it will merge with Suncor. At that time Suncor’s debt to equity ratio was high at 54%. Given the uncertainty of whether the “marriage” will be a success or disaster, I sold it and bought Imperial Oil, lower debt, better management & technology support by Exxon Mobil (XOM), by given up the potential growth opportunity of what Suncor & Petro Canada have. In 2 years, I can see the huge improvement in Suncor by lowering its debt to equity ratio to 34% with a promise by management they will lower it further before 30% in 2011. While Imperial Oil has already ran above my expectation & fulfill its mission, I will now switch to Suncor. The reason why Suncor fall short while oil price up is cuz it has investment in Libya and have higher uncertainty of potential losses & damage. I think the political issue can go on for a long period, but who ever gain power will not destroy the energy business
· Why Bilibala add Berkshire Hathaway? I’ve reviewed the whole 2010 annual report. Looks great as usual!! Add back cuz I found out Todd Comb (the one I don’t like or do not impress) only replace Liu in GEICO who manage a portfolio of $3-4B. Looking forward, its investment income growth may slow down, given the fact General Electric & Goldman Sech will most likely buy back the preferred shares on a 10% redemption fees this year. By that time, Berkshires Hathaway will have lower before tax dividend/interest income by $0.8B, which is a lot of $$.
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
(with net present value in 1 year)
American
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 => US$754.6 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update)
7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY (pending to update)
· Mar 11 major transactions: switch to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.34; add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0; add American Express (AXP) US$43.2
· Why Bilibala buy Suncor? Bilibala sold Petro Canada in 2008 at $37.0 when it announced it will merge with Suncor. At that time Suncor’s debt to equity ratio was high at 54%. Given the uncertainty of whether the “marriage” will be a success or disaster, I sold it and bought Imperial Oil, lower debt, better management & technology support by Exxon Mobil (XOM), by given up the potential growth opportunity of what Suncor & Petro Canada have. In 2 years, I can see the huge improvement in Suncor by lowering its debt to equity ratio to 34% with a promise by management they will lower it further before 30% in 2011. While Imperial Oil has already ran above my expectation & fulfill its mission, I will now switch to Suncor. The reason why Suncor fall short while oil price up is cuz it has investment in Libya and have higher uncertainty of potential losses & damage. I think the political issue can go on for a long period, but who ever gain power will not destroy the energy business
· Why Bilibala add Berkshire Hathaway? I’ve reviewed the whole 2010 annual report. Looks great as usual!! Add back cuz I found out Todd Comb (the one I don’t like or do not impress) only replace Liu in GEICO who manage a portfolio of $3-4B. Looking forward, its investment income growth may slow down, given the fact General Electric & Goldman Sech will most likely buy back the preferred shares on a 10% redemption fees this year. By that time, Berkshires Hathaway will have lower before tax dividend/interest income by $0.8B, which is a lot of $$.
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
3.07.2011
Top Holding - US/Canada
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 => US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 => US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$83.8 => CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
7. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$47.8 HOLD
· Mar 11 major transactions: add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0; add American Express (AXP) US$43.2
· TD Bank report great results!! Compare to 1q10:
· 1q11 adjusted EPS up 8% to CA$1.74; net interest income up 11%, fee income up 5%, loan provision down by 20%, book value down up slightly by 3%
· 1q earnings usually the highest among all quarters (cuz more investment & underwriting activities) so I don’t think this result will repeat in 2q-4q
· As interest rate may rise in 2H2011, it may hurt TD’s interest margin
· Regulatory change on mortgage (from 35 year to 30 year start from Apr 11) may hurt real estate market’s activities, but should have no impact on TD’s interest income
· Even the interest rate may rise & higher gas price offset with the lower unemployment rate & slow economy pick up, I think loan provision will stay flat for 2011 compare to 2010
· 2011 adjusted EPS expectation is CA$6.46
· Great reminder from Warren Buffett in 2010 annual report: http://bilibala-life.blogspot.com/
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 => US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 => US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$83.8 => CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
7. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$47.8 HOLD
· Mar 11 major transactions: add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0; add American Express (AXP) US$43.2
· TD Bank report great results!! Compare to 1q10:
· 1q11 adjusted EPS up 8% to CA$1.74; net interest income up 11%, fee income up 5%, loan provision down by 20%, book value down up slightly by 3%
· 1q earnings usually the highest among all quarters (cuz more investment & underwriting activities) so I don’t think this result will repeat in 2q-4q
· As interest rate may rise in 2H2011, it may hurt TD’s interest margin
· Regulatory change on mortgage (from 35 year to 30 year start from Apr 11) may hurt real estate market’s activities, but should have no impact on TD’s interest income
· Even the interest rate may rise & higher gas price offset with the lower unemployment rate & slow economy pick up, I think loan provision will stay flat for 2011 compare to 2010
· 2011 adjusted EPS expectation is CA$6.46
· Great reminder from Warren Buffett in 2010 annual report: http://bilibala-life.blogspot.com/
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
12.23.2010
Top holding in Canada 12/23/10
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.19 => CA$83.84 HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$47.82 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$41.10 HOLD
TD Bank to buy Chrysler Financial for US$6.3B, the auto leaders with 1 million customers, net assets of US$5.9B by its internal funds (existing shareholders not being diluted). I think this deal is good given the following fact:
1. Strong 2010 auto sales in USA (thanks to Toyota’s “collapse” & slow economy recovery)
2. Auto loan default rate normally lower than bank card loan & mortgage loan at 1.77% which improved by 77 bps compare to year 2009’s average & even it is still 15 bps higher than pre-financial crisis
3. Given TD Bank can use its strong deposit base to support this auto loan business, the interest spread TD Bank will be higher than Chrysler
4. Purchase price of $6.3B or 7% higher than book value looks low (normally, the average is about 2 times book value)
5. Risk of minimal or even negative earning if the prime rate continue to remind low while bond rate are all up cuz auto loans are based on prime rate
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.19 => CA$83.84 HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$47.82 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$41.10 HOLD
TD Bank to buy Chrysler Financial for US$6.3B, the auto leaders with 1 million customers, net assets of US$5.9B by its internal funds (existing shareholders not being diluted). I think this deal is good given the following fact:
1. Strong 2010 auto sales in USA (thanks to Toyota’s “collapse” & slow economy recovery)
2. Auto loan default rate normally lower than bank card loan & mortgage loan at 1.77% which improved by 77 bps compare to year 2009’s average & even it is still 15 bps higher than pre-financial crisis
3. Given TD Bank can use its strong deposit base to support this auto loan business, the interest spread TD Bank will be higher than Chrysler
4. Purchase price of $6.3B or 7% higher than book value looks low (normally, the average is about 2 times book value)
5. Risk of minimal or even negative earning if the prime rate continue to remind low while bond rate are all up cuz auto loans are based on prime rate
12.10.2010
Top holding in Canada 12/10/10
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 => CA$47.82 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$41.10 HOLD
I finally completed my analysis on Imperial Oil. Based on its estimated 2011 oil & gas proven reserve & 2011-2015 average oil price of US$95 per bbl with a production cost of US$45, I’ve readjusted my NPV to CA$47.82. Oil price dropped from US$146 in 2008 down to US$36 in 2009 and slowly claim back to US$88, consistent with Bilabial’s estimation. Let’s see whether it will which the magic equilibrium point in US$100 in 2011.
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 => CA$47.82 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$41.10 HOLD
I finally completed my analysis on Imperial Oil. Based on its estimated 2011 oil & gas proven reserve & 2011-2015 average oil price of US$95 per bbl with a production cost of US$45, I’ve readjusted my NPV to CA$47.82. Oil price dropped from US$146 in 2008 down to US$36 in 2009 and slowly claim back to US$88, consistent with Bilabial’s estimation. Let’s see whether it will which the magic equilibrium point in US$100 in 2011.
12.02.2010
Top holding in Canada 12/02/10
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 BUY => HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$39.45 => CA$41.10 HOLD
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 BUY => HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$39.45 => CA$41.10 HOLD
- Last week, Ontario government propose the long term energy plan (LTEP), outlines the plan for Ontario power & transmission system for the next 20 years. Given the fact we may face a possible 24k MW deficiency in generation by 2025, the government plan to spend $87B to increased the MW from current 39k MW to 52k MW ($33B on refurbish the existing nuclear power plant; $27B on building new wind, solar & bio-energy power plant which will deliver 10.5k MW power). Given TransCanada invested heavily in nuclear & wind power, this government plan will have positive impact to TransCanada’s future earnings (Although we all upset cuz our electricity bill will double in 20 years – 3.5% per year)
- TD Bank release its 4q10 results, profit down 1.6% quarter to date & up 48.9% year to date compare to 2009. Excluding $121m 4q non-recurring tax provision, quarter to date profit actually up 10.4% which is on expectation. Deposit up 9.96%, loan up 6.67% and loan to deposit ratio down by 4.93% to 62.80% . I do not see any significant rise in revenue nor in profit for 2011. Given the fact that TD’s price earnings ratio & price per book value ratio are 14.40 & 1.66, it has already priced in.
11.22.2010
Top holding in Canada 11/22/10
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 BUY
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$39.45 HOLD
I am reviewing Imperial Oil’s 3q result, will share about it next time.
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 BUY
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$39.45 HOLD
I am reviewing Imperial Oil’s 3q result, will share about it next time.
11.16.2010
Top holding in Canada 11/16/10
1. Manulife Financial (MFC)
2. TD Bank (TD)
3. Imperial Oil (IMO)
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC)
5. Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP)
Shoppers’ Drug Mart: during the “silent period” of Bilibala Finance, I bought back Shoppers’ Drug Mart at $35.0 because I think the regulation change in prescription drug has fully reflected in the share price.
2. TD Bank (TD)
3. Imperial Oil (IMO)
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC)
5. Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP)
Shoppers’ Drug Mart: during the “silent period” of Bilibala Finance, I bought back Shoppers’ Drug Mart at $35.0 because I think the regulation change in prescription drug has fully reflected in the share price.
11.09.2010
Top holding in Canada 11/09/10
1. Manulife Financial (MFC)
2. TD Bank (TD)
3. Imperial Oil (IMO)
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC)
5. Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP)
2. TD Bank (TD)
3. Imperial Oil (IMO)
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC)
5. Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP)
- C$ is at par, but I don’t think it will rise further beyond $1.02, as overnight interest rate will most likely keep at 1.0% and the higher the C$ will hurt international trade between US & Canada;
- Wewill have the Shoppers Drug Mart’s 3q10 result this week;
- Manulife Financial: 3q10 result is $1.1B lower than Bilibala’s expectation, cuz it wrote off $1B goodwill in related to its USA insurance business (no way I can’t guessitmate this kind of management decision. It is non-recurring, so, who cares!!). Overall, as interest rate start rising thx to the QE 2.0, Manulife’s performance for future quarters should look better.
Manulife has 3 major shift in its business model:
1. diversify by expand its asset management business;
2. de-equity risk by increase hedge & reinsurance to 50%;
3. de-interest rate risk by higher duration of its bond holdings.
From a risk management view, I think it will provide a much smoother quarter to quarter results. However, from a business view, this is not a smart move:
1. as we all know interest rate will go up eventually, instead of go down
2. equity market will go up when it was at the bottom (in 2009)
why should anyone earn less just to smooth things out? Just follow the crowd? Anyway…..
11.01.2010
Top holding in Canada 11/01/10
1. Manulife Financial (MFC)
2. TD Bank (TD)
3. Imperial Oil (IMO)
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC)
5. Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP)
2. TD Bank (TD)
3. Imperial Oil (IMO)
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC)
5. Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP)
- Imperial Oil & Manulife Financial will release its 3q10 results this week.
- Bilibala will sold BYD Ltd. & invest more Manulife Financial today.
4.08.2010
Shoppers Drug "strongly opposed" to Ontario reform
Bilibala: new rule will surely affect Shoppers Drug Mart's earning, on the other hand, as Canadian aging, the health expenses volume should continue to grow.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0712523820100407?type=marketsNews
TORONTO, April 7 (Reuters) - Shoppers Drug Mart Corp (SC.TO) said on Wednesday it is reviewing government reforms to the way prescription drugs are priced in Ontario, Canada's most populous province, and how the changes will affect the company's bottom line.
Shoppers, Canada's biggest pharmacy chain, said it is taking a fresh look at its strategic priorities and initiatives, and is reviewing its forecasts for prescription sales growth in fiscal 2010.
The Ontario government, looking to keep health care costs in check, said on Wednesday it will impose lower generic prescription drug prices under the Ontario Drug Benefit Program.
Shoppers Drug Mart said it is "strongly opposed" to the changes, adding it believes they will have a negative impact on pharmacy services and patient care in the province, "as it is inevitable that pharmacies will have to make reductions to their current service offerings".
The company said the reforms would require all pharmacies, including the more than 600 Shoppers Drug Mart pharmacies in Ontario, to review their operating, investing and professional practice models to ensure long-term sustainability.
Shoppers said it will report its quarterly results on April 28 and it expects to provide more information on its review at that time.
"These announced changes reinforce our view that in the long term, the successful players in retail pharmacy will be those with size, scale and an ability to leverage operating efficiencies," said Jurgen Schreiber, president and chief executive of Shoppers Drug Mart.
"Shoppers Drug Mart, with the largest integrated pharmacy network in the country and the leading market share, will be challenged in the short term to adjust to the changes announced today, but remains well positioned for the long term," he said. (Reporting by John McCrank; editing by Peter Galloway)
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0712523820100407?type=marketsNews
TORONTO, April 7 (Reuters) - Shoppers Drug Mart Corp (SC.TO) said on Wednesday it is reviewing government reforms to the way prescription drugs are priced in Ontario, Canada's most populous province, and how the changes will affect the company's bottom line.
Shoppers, Canada's biggest pharmacy chain, said it is taking a fresh look at its strategic priorities and initiatives, and is reviewing its forecasts for prescription sales growth in fiscal 2010.
The Ontario government, looking to keep health care costs in check, said on Wednesday it will impose lower generic prescription drug prices under the Ontario Drug Benefit Program.
Shoppers Drug Mart said it is "strongly opposed" to the changes, adding it believes they will have a negative impact on pharmacy services and patient care in the province, "as it is inevitable that pharmacies will have to make reductions to their current service offerings".
The company said the reforms would require all pharmacies, including the more than 600 Shoppers Drug Mart pharmacies in Ontario, to review their operating, investing and professional practice models to ensure long-term sustainability.
Shoppers said it will report its quarterly results on April 28 and it expects to provide more information on its review at that time.
"These announced changes reinforce our view that in the long term, the successful players in retail pharmacy will be those with size, scale and an ability to leverage operating efficiencies," said Jurgen Schreiber, president and chief executive of Shoppers Drug Mart.
"Shoppers Drug Mart, with the largest integrated pharmacy network in the country and the leading market share, will be challenged in the short term to adjust to the changes announced today, but remains well positioned for the long term," he said. (Reporting by John McCrank; editing by Peter Galloway)
3.10.2010
http://www.stockhouse.com/News/FinancialNewsDetailFeeds.aspx?n=13216990&src=cp
TORONTO - Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX:BAM.A) announced a plan Wednesday to sell part of its stake in wood panel maker Norbord Inc. (TSX:NBD) in a secondary offering worth about $150 million.
Brookfield said it will reduce its stake from 73 per cent to about 53 per cent after the sale of the shares.
Norbord will not receive any cash from the offering.
Under the deal, a syndicate led by TD Securities and RBC Capital markets have agreed to buy nine million shares of Norboard for $16.70 per share.
Norbord shares, which were halted pending the announcement, were down 18 cents at $17.66 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday.
A Brookfield subsidiary is selling 8.68 million shares, while 320,000 shares will be offered by management of the corporation including Norboard president and chief executive Barrie Shineton and chief financial officer Robin Lampard.
The underwriters have also been granted an over-allotment option for up to an additional 900,000 shares held by the Brookfield subsidiary.
Norbord is one of the world's largest producers of oriented strand board and also makes particleboard, medium density fibreboard, plywood and other products.
Brookfield, which had been the largest minority shareholder in Norbord, stepped up last year stepped up with $144 million to back stop and take control of the struggling company.
TORONTO - Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX:BAM.A) announced a plan Wednesday to sell part of its stake in wood panel maker Norbord Inc. (TSX:NBD) in a secondary offering worth about $150 million.
Brookfield said it will reduce its stake from 73 per cent to about 53 per cent after the sale of the shares.
Norbord will not receive any cash from the offering.
Under the deal, a syndicate led by TD Securities and RBC Capital markets have agreed to buy nine million shares of Norboard for $16.70 per share.
Norbord shares, which were halted pending the announcement, were down 18 cents at $17.66 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday.
A Brookfield subsidiary is selling 8.68 million shares, while 320,000 shares will be offered by management of the corporation including Norboard president and chief executive Barrie Shineton and chief financial officer Robin Lampard.
The underwriters have also been granted an over-allotment option for up to an additional 900,000 shares held by the Brookfield subsidiary.
Norbord is one of the world's largest producers of oriented strand board and also makes particleboard, medium density fibreboard, plywood and other products.
Brookfield, which had been the largest minority shareholder in Norbord, stepped up last year stepped up with $144 million to back stop and take control of the struggling company.
2.24.2010
Shoppers Drug Mart slowly turning into the urban Walmart
Bilibala: expanding may rise sales but reduce profit margin. Also, it may rise debt, let's see how it goes.
http://www.torontolife.com/daily/style/shop-talk/2010/02/24/shoppers-drug-mart-slowly-turning-into-the-urban-walmart/
Shoppers Drug Mart, the ubiquitous drugstore that sells everything from frozen vegetables to cosmetics (oh, medicine, too), is further expanding its offerings to include electronics and ethnic foods in its continuing evolution into a one-stop shopping destination.
Following in the footsteps of Walmart and Canadian Tire, Shoppers CEO Jurgen Schreiber told the Globe that he’d like his company to focus more on food and introduce more private-label lines. Photo departments will be phased out to make room for high-tech gadgets and a “youth corner” to attract younger shoppers.
It seems nothing is stopping the 59-year-old company that’s been dubbed the city’s general store (see our article about Shoppers in the March issue of Toronto Life). As we noted in that piece, there are currently 9.5 million Optimum cardholders across the country. The store’s strong fourth-quarter results, which were released two weeks ago, set a record for the company, boosted by sales of over-the-counter medication (thank you, H1N1).
Just as people go to Indigo to buy coffee and Staples to buy potato chips, perhaps they’ll soon go to Shoppers to buy Life brand bacon.
http://www.torontolife.com/daily/style/shop-talk/2010/02/24/shoppers-drug-mart-slowly-turning-into-the-urban-walmart/
Shoppers Drug Mart, the ubiquitous drugstore that sells everything from frozen vegetables to cosmetics (oh, medicine, too), is further expanding its offerings to include electronics and ethnic foods in its continuing evolution into a one-stop shopping destination.
Following in the footsteps of Walmart and Canadian Tire, Shoppers CEO Jurgen Schreiber told the Globe that he’d like his company to focus more on food and introduce more private-label lines. Photo departments will be phased out to make room for high-tech gadgets and a “youth corner” to attract younger shoppers.
It seems nothing is stopping the 59-year-old company that’s been dubbed the city’s general store (see our article about Shoppers in the March issue of Toronto Life). As we noted in that piece, there are currently 9.5 million Optimum cardholders across the country. The store’s strong fourth-quarter results, which were released two weeks ago, set a record for the company, boosted by sales of over-the-counter medication (thank you, H1N1).
Just as people go to Indigo to buy coffee and Staples to buy potato chips, perhaps they’ll soon go to Shoppers to buy Life brand bacon.
2.22.2010
Shoppers Drug Mart open new general store
Bilibala: to me, products in Shoppers Drug Mart is very expensive, but, irrationally, customers enjoy shopping at Shoppers Drug Mart. As her shareholders, this is a strong economic moat that I need to take into account in her stock price. CA$44 is really attractive to BUY.
http://www.torontolife.com/features/new-general-store/
Shoppers outposts are suddenly everywhere, fulfilling our late-night need for milk, organic chocolate and self-bronzer. The evolution of the corner drugstore to consumer playground By Maryam Sanati
Just five minutes into Seniors’ Day at my local Shoppers Drug Mart, I’ve loaded up on Pampers, a container of organic flax meal, an electric toothbrush, Life brand vitamins and Advil. I am not a senior. I am at least three decades away from retirement. But here I am, on the last Thursday of the month, snaking my shopping cart around walkers and bundle buggies, hunting for what I need. My mother has split off into another tributary in the store. Divide and conquer. In a sense, I have invited myself to the monthly meeting of her club, where members get 20 per cent off, and I am behaving somewhat overzealously.
There’s no rule against shopping with a senior on Seniors’ Day and taking advantage of their discount. It’s doubtful that the company cares about the finer details of borrowed seniorship. The store is full.
“They give you a $10 off coupon if you spend $50,” my mom says to me as we line up for a cashier, every till buzzing. It is in this line that I realize how devoted Shoppers Drug Mart customers are. Loyalty is rare in this depressed retail environment—a time when, save for special mom-and-pop survivors, a cherished butcher or cheese vendor or a barbershop, most of us have collectively turned away from the small and into the viable expanse of the big.
The chain has not escaped criticism for its aspirations. In late 2007, negative reaction burbled up when construction of a super-sized Shoppers started on the Danforth, pushing out the Ralph Day Funeral Home and a few other small businesses. Inevitably, though, the issue was forgotten. Now residents of Greektown are in that very store late at night, filling their prescriptions and buying their Toblerones. That’s what happens when a big box goes urban; convenience converts even skeptics. They find themselves drawn to the possibility of buying their vitamins and their hair elastics and even some of their electronic gadgets (certain Shoppers now even sell Wiis) in one amenable shopping environment, while also tending to the health of their families.
We go there mostly for necessity: toilet paper, cold remedies, prescriptions (which constitute some 50 per cent of the company’s sales), kitty litter. The proposition that then engages us is the huge amount of choice we see and the other things that we feel suit our lives in a way that is not entirely, convincingly, necessary but is certainly somehow justifiable.
And there is another hook. I can cash in my thousands of Optimum points, accumulated steadily through 10- or 20-times-the-points promotions, only to rack up more Optimum points to bring me back for more shopping tomorrow or the day after. This is every retailer’s reverie: the loyal spend while earning loyalty points to enable them to spend again—the sweet circle of shopping life.
Like newspaper boxes, parking meters and Starbucks, if something is ubiquitous, it becomes part of the background of a city, almost invisible to the people who pass by it every day. We become unmoved to consider how the thing that is everywhere came to be, and just how much of the city’s real estate it consumes. And that’s why I was surprised to discover how many Shoppers Drug Marts there are. Across this city, 127 have planted their patriotic red and white flag posts—the corporate colours, accented by sky blue. (More than 1,170 exist in Canada, operating as Pharmaprix in Quebec.) There are also 65 Shoppers Home Health Care stores, which sell canes, walkers, wheelchairs, braces and more.
The Optimum card, launched 10 years ago, is the more agile competitor to Air Miles, a card that is aligned with Rexall Pharma Plus. By comparison, Optimum points accrue more quickly, and they’re appealingly easy to use—each receipt tells you how many you’ve got. All you have to do is carry the card in your wallet. Approximately 2.5 million of us, or nearly half the GTA population, are Optimum cardholders. Nationwide, 9.5 million are active card users of Optimum.
Eighty per cent of cardholders are women. The privacy statement for the card notes, “We do not rent, sell or provide the personal information of Shoppers Optimum members.” But every swipe builds a sense of how 9.5 million people shop around the country, and the company tracks the changes they exhibit in their spending habits, the average amount of money spent per visit, and how new products are being received by whom.
Targeted mailings are sent out based on Optimum data: for instance, Shoppers knows I buy Pampers, Camilia and Children’s Tylenol, and so my local store mailed an invitation to my home address to join the VIB (Very Important Baby) program, which promises it will give “you, and everyone who cares for your little one, more rewards and exclusive offers.”
Shoppers is determined to extend its reach. It’s increasing its number of private labels from 11 to 20; launching more of its gleaming Murale cosmetics boutiques (Shoppers’ answer to Sephora), one of which opened at the Shops at Don Mills last summer; and, most significantly, introducing large-format stores, still called “prototypes,” with huge selection and twice the square footage of old-format Shoppers. The majority of Shoppers Drug Marts built since 2002 are the giant prototype stores, averaging 14,000 square feet. They’re taking over the city and slowly redefining how we shop.
Faith Popcorn famously noted that, “Shopping is the museum of the 21st century.” When you’re in the Avenue and Lawrence Shoppers, you know what she’s talking about. It is a model of the new prototype store, and it’s more futuristic and splendid than any drugstore I have ever seen. The aisles are wide, the sightlines are good, and the windows are practically floor-to-ceiling. Open 24 hours, the store is staffed by 90 employees. (The staff complement was doubled when the store expanded in 2008 from a smaller location up the road.)
I took a tour of the facility recently with John Caplice, an affable 40-something father of three who is a senior VP at Shoppers. We start in the BeautyBoutique as he explains the concept behind Shoppers’ cosmetic sales: don’t keep anything, even the high-end stuff, under glass.
The so-called “open sell” strategy is winning business away from weakened department stores. Nearby are two beauty consultants if you need them. “We give customers the choice of service or self-service,” Caplice says, repeating the word “convenience,” which, in a company that professes to be the most convenient retailer in Canada, is an ingrained mantra.
In the cosmetics area, the advisers have no particular affiliation, a philosophical split from the cosmetics floor in any department store, where Lancôme competes with Shiseido and so on. The staff working here are trained to compare and contrast the benefits of each brand. By the end of 2010, there will be 230 Shoppers stores in Canada with this beauty format.
The Avenue and Lawrence store also includes a super-deluxe baby section with a built-in fridge stocking organic baby food. At the back, the dispensary looks nothing like the small-windowed pharmacies of yore. Clerks are stationed around an open curved counter, and next to the prescription drop-off area is a comfortable waiting lounge and a private room for sensitive pharmacist-patient consultations.
In the Food Essentials section, which since 2002 has been established in close to 600 stores, you can find good mozzarella, designer salads and organic products from Nativa, the private label Shoppers launched in March 2008 with 170 items in orange packaging. There are now 200 Nativa goods; I’m partial to the gingersnaps.
Caplice takes me to the toothpaste aisle. Years ago, a dental care section was four feet long. At the Avenue and Lawrence store, there are 28 feet of dental hygiene products, lip balm, floss and other attendant consumer goods. I feel like I’m inspecting a Queen’s regiment made up of toothbrushes.
This is precisely why there are large-format stores in the first place. Caplice explains that the retail space had to expand to accommodate an ever-increasing assortment of stuff—Shoppers’ own products and innovations from the leading consumer companies.
http://www.torontolife.com/features/new-general-store/
Shoppers outposts are suddenly everywhere, fulfilling our late-night need for milk, organic chocolate and self-bronzer. The evolution of the corner drugstore to consumer playground By Maryam Sanati
Just five minutes into Seniors’ Day at my local Shoppers Drug Mart, I’ve loaded up on Pampers, a container of organic flax meal, an electric toothbrush, Life brand vitamins and Advil. I am not a senior. I am at least three decades away from retirement. But here I am, on the last Thursday of the month, snaking my shopping cart around walkers and bundle buggies, hunting for what I need. My mother has split off into another tributary in the store. Divide and conquer. In a sense, I have invited myself to the monthly meeting of her club, where members get 20 per cent off, and I am behaving somewhat overzealously.
There’s no rule against shopping with a senior on Seniors’ Day and taking advantage of their discount. It’s doubtful that the company cares about the finer details of borrowed seniorship. The store is full.
“They give you a $10 off coupon if you spend $50,” my mom says to me as we line up for a cashier, every till buzzing. It is in this line that I realize how devoted Shoppers Drug Mart customers are. Loyalty is rare in this depressed retail environment—a time when, save for special mom-and-pop survivors, a cherished butcher or cheese vendor or a barbershop, most of us have collectively turned away from the small and into the viable expanse of the big.
The chain has not escaped criticism for its aspirations. In late 2007, negative reaction burbled up when construction of a super-sized Shoppers started on the Danforth, pushing out the Ralph Day Funeral Home and a few other small businesses. Inevitably, though, the issue was forgotten. Now residents of Greektown are in that very store late at night, filling their prescriptions and buying their Toblerones. That’s what happens when a big box goes urban; convenience converts even skeptics. They find themselves drawn to the possibility of buying their vitamins and their hair elastics and even some of their electronic gadgets (certain Shoppers now even sell Wiis) in one amenable shopping environment, while also tending to the health of their families.
We go there mostly for necessity: toilet paper, cold remedies, prescriptions (which constitute some 50 per cent of the company’s sales), kitty litter. The proposition that then engages us is the huge amount of choice we see and the other things that we feel suit our lives in a way that is not entirely, convincingly, necessary but is certainly somehow justifiable.
And there is another hook. I can cash in my thousands of Optimum points, accumulated steadily through 10- or 20-times-the-points promotions, only to rack up more Optimum points to bring me back for more shopping tomorrow or the day after. This is every retailer’s reverie: the loyal spend while earning loyalty points to enable them to spend again—the sweet circle of shopping life.
Like newspaper boxes, parking meters and Starbucks, if something is ubiquitous, it becomes part of the background of a city, almost invisible to the people who pass by it every day. We become unmoved to consider how the thing that is everywhere came to be, and just how much of the city’s real estate it consumes. And that’s why I was surprised to discover how many Shoppers Drug Marts there are. Across this city, 127 have planted their patriotic red and white flag posts—the corporate colours, accented by sky blue. (More than 1,170 exist in Canada, operating as Pharmaprix in Quebec.) There are also 65 Shoppers Home Health Care stores, which sell canes, walkers, wheelchairs, braces and more.
The Optimum card, launched 10 years ago, is the more agile competitor to Air Miles, a card that is aligned with Rexall Pharma Plus. By comparison, Optimum points accrue more quickly, and they’re appealingly easy to use—each receipt tells you how many you’ve got. All you have to do is carry the card in your wallet. Approximately 2.5 million of us, or nearly half the GTA population, are Optimum cardholders. Nationwide, 9.5 million are active card users of Optimum.
Eighty per cent of cardholders are women. The privacy statement for the card notes, “We do not rent, sell or provide the personal information of Shoppers Optimum members.” But every swipe builds a sense of how 9.5 million people shop around the country, and the company tracks the changes they exhibit in their spending habits, the average amount of money spent per visit, and how new products are being received by whom.
Targeted mailings are sent out based on Optimum data: for instance, Shoppers knows I buy Pampers, Camilia and Children’s Tylenol, and so my local store mailed an invitation to my home address to join the VIB (Very Important Baby) program, which promises it will give “you, and everyone who cares for your little one, more rewards and exclusive offers.”
Shoppers is determined to extend its reach. It’s increasing its number of private labels from 11 to 20; launching more of its gleaming Murale cosmetics boutiques (Shoppers’ answer to Sephora), one of which opened at the Shops at Don Mills last summer; and, most significantly, introducing large-format stores, still called “prototypes,” with huge selection and twice the square footage of old-format Shoppers. The majority of Shoppers Drug Marts built since 2002 are the giant prototype stores, averaging 14,000 square feet. They’re taking over the city and slowly redefining how we shop.
Faith Popcorn famously noted that, “Shopping is the museum of the 21st century.” When you’re in the Avenue and Lawrence Shoppers, you know what she’s talking about. It is a model of the new prototype store, and it’s more futuristic and splendid than any drugstore I have ever seen. The aisles are wide, the sightlines are good, and the windows are practically floor-to-ceiling. Open 24 hours, the store is staffed by 90 employees. (The staff complement was doubled when the store expanded in 2008 from a smaller location up the road.)
I took a tour of the facility recently with John Caplice, an affable 40-something father of three who is a senior VP at Shoppers. We start in the BeautyBoutique as he explains the concept behind Shoppers’ cosmetic sales: don’t keep anything, even the high-end stuff, under glass.
The so-called “open sell” strategy is winning business away from weakened department stores. Nearby are two beauty consultants if you need them. “We give customers the choice of service or self-service,” Caplice says, repeating the word “convenience,” which, in a company that professes to be the most convenient retailer in Canada, is an ingrained mantra.
In the cosmetics area, the advisers have no particular affiliation, a philosophical split from the cosmetics floor in any department store, where Lancôme competes with Shiseido and so on. The staff working here are trained to compare and contrast the benefits of each brand. By the end of 2010, there will be 230 Shoppers stores in Canada with this beauty format.
The Avenue and Lawrence store also includes a super-deluxe baby section with a built-in fridge stocking organic baby food. At the back, the dispensary looks nothing like the small-windowed pharmacies of yore. Clerks are stationed around an open curved counter, and next to the prescription drop-off area is a comfortable waiting lounge and a private room for sensitive pharmacist-patient consultations.
In the Food Essentials section, which since 2002 has been established in close to 600 stores, you can find good mozzarella, designer salads and organic products from Nativa, the private label Shoppers launched in March 2008 with 170 items in orange packaging. There are now 200 Nativa goods; I’m partial to the gingersnaps.
Caplice takes me to the toothpaste aisle. Years ago, a dental care section was four feet long. At the Avenue and Lawrence store, there are 28 feet of dental hygiene products, lip balm, floss and other attendant consumer goods. I feel like I’m inspecting a Queen’s regiment made up of toothbrushes.
This is precisely why there are large-format stores in the first place. Caplice explains that the retail space had to expand to accommodate an ever-increasing assortment of stuff—Shoppers’ own products and innovations from the leading consumer companies.
1.21.2010
Bilibala mailbox 10/01/21
Question:
brk.b goes up to 72 this morning. is it too high to buy? or focus onwfc? how about mfc? why u suggest to buy more? thanks
Answer:
Berkshire Hathaway
Berkshire Hathaway go up these 2 days from $65.0 (or $3,250 before split) to above $72.0 because of
brk.b goes up to 72 this morning. is it too high to buy? or focus onwfc? how about mfc? why u suggest to buy more? thanks
Answer:
Berkshire Hathaway
Berkshire Hathaway go up these 2 days from $65.0 (or $3,250 before split) to above $72.0 because of
- the stock split which trigger the transaction volume to go up because the price is lot more "attractive" & "relatively cheaper" in an irrational investment sense after it dropped from $3,300 to only $66.0
- Warren Buffett indirectly mentioned in an interview that the stock price is undervalue
In long run, Berkshire Hathaway's price is still undervalue, however, to most of the investors, will refuse to buy when it is going up.
On the other hand, stock split has no impact to the value of a company, if i assume everything else is constant, price will adjust back to where it should be after a short term rally.
Wells Fargo
I have a better idea on Wells Fargo’s 2010 outlook after a flash review of its 4q09 and 2009 results. I think its EPS should be able to rise from US$1.75 in 2009 to US$2.85 & US$3.05 in 2010 & 2011. Given the following:
- Continue improve in net interest margin
- Expect the loan provision to drop smoothly in 2010 and further in 2011
- Paid off the $25B TARP in 4q09 – will save $420M dividend expenses per qtr
- House market recover Its 12 months target price should at least be US$34.77.
I personally think Wells Fargo worth US$60.0 by the end of 2014 (5 years from now).Given the current stock price is US$27.82 (01/20/10’s closed), there will be a potential return of 25% in the coming 12 months.
Manulife Financial
I see significant improve in investors confident to equity market. Manulife’s 4Q sales should improve while sum at risk will fall. Bilibala increases its fair value from C$31 to C$35.
I need to review its 4q09 & 2009 result before I can hold firm on my opinion.
12.09.2009
Reitmans Canada 3q09 result
(Source: Canada Newswire)MONTREAL, Dec. 8 /CNW Telbec/ - Sales for the nine months ended October 31, 2009 were virtually unchanged at $788,407,000 as compared with $789,060,000 for the nine months ended November 1, 2008. In a challenging retail environment, same store sales decreased 1.8%. Operating earnings before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA(1)) for the period decreased 19.9% to $121,171,000 as compared with $151,192,000 last year. Net earnings and diluted earnings per share decreased to $53,148,000 or $0.77 per share as compared to $76,825,000 or $1.08 per share for the same period last year. The Company had 981 stores in operation at the end of this period compared to 978 stores at the same time last year.
=> I think mainly due to fall in US dollars
Sales for the third quarter ended October 31, 2009 decreased 0.2% to $270,684,000, as compared with $271,240,000 for the third quarter ended November 1, 2008. Same store sales for the comparable 13 weeks decreased 2.2%. EBITDA for the period decreased 12.1% to $42,098,000 as compared with $47,873,000 last year. Net earnings and diluted earnings per share decreased to $18,921,000 or $0.28 per share as compared to $23,004,000 or $0.32 per share for the same period last year.
=> I think mainly due to fall in US dollars, result looks reasonable but not impressive. As stock price rise to $16-17.0 level, my recommenation is HOLD instead of BUY.
Sales for the month of November (four weeks ended November 28, 2009), as a result of the continuing difficult retail environment, decreased 2.6% with same store sales decreasing 4.0%.
During the third quarter, the Company opened 12 new stores comprised of 3 Reitmans, 3 Smart Set, 3 RW & CO., 1 Cassis, 1 Penningtons and 1 Addition Elle; 2 stores were closed. Accordingly, at October 31, 2009, there were 981 stores in operation, consisting of 370 Reitmans, 167 Smart Set, 65 RW & CO., 76 Thyme Maternity, 17 Cassis, 163 Penningtons and 123 Addition Elle. An additional 3 stores are scheduled to open this year and 9 stores will be closed.
At the Board of Directors meeting held on December 8, 2009, a quarterly cash dividend (constituting eligible dividends) of $0.18 per share on all outstanding Class A non-voting and Common shares of the Company was declared, payable January 28, 2010 to shareholders of record on January 8, 2010.
As reported in the November 25, 2009 press release, the Company received approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange to proceed with a normal course issuer bid, under which the Corporation may purchase up to 2,728,972 Class A non-voting shares, representing 5% of the issued and outstanding Class A non-voting shares as at November 23, 2009. The bid commenced on November 28, 2009 and may continue to November 27, 2010.
=> I think mainly due to fall in US dollars
Sales for the third quarter ended October 31, 2009 decreased 0.2% to $270,684,000, as compared with $271,240,000 for the third quarter ended November 1, 2008. Same store sales for the comparable 13 weeks decreased 2.2%. EBITDA for the period decreased 12.1% to $42,098,000 as compared with $47,873,000 last year. Net earnings and diluted earnings per share decreased to $18,921,000 or $0.28 per share as compared to $23,004,000 or $0.32 per share for the same period last year.
=> I think mainly due to fall in US dollars, result looks reasonable but not impressive. As stock price rise to $16-17.0 level, my recommenation is HOLD instead of BUY.
Sales for the month of November (four weeks ended November 28, 2009), as a result of the continuing difficult retail environment, decreased 2.6% with same store sales decreasing 4.0%.
During the third quarter, the Company opened 12 new stores comprised of 3 Reitmans, 3 Smart Set, 3 RW & CO., 1 Cassis, 1 Penningtons and 1 Addition Elle; 2 stores were closed. Accordingly, at October 31, 2009, there were 981 stores in operation, consisting of 370 Reitmans, 167 Smart Set, 65 RW & CO., 76 Thyme Maternity, 17 Cassis, 163 Penningtons and 123 Addition Elle. An additional 3 stores are scheduled to open this year and 9 stores will be closed.
At the Board of Directors meeting held on December 8, 2009, a quarterly cash dividend (constituting eligible dividends) of $0.18 per share on all outstanding Class A non-voting and Common shares of the Company was declared, payable January 28, 2010 to shareholders of record on January 8, 2010.
As reported in the November 25, 2009 press release, the Company received approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange to proceed with a normal course issuer bid, under which the Corporation may purchase up to 2,728,972 Class A non-voting shares, representing 5% of the issued and outstanding Class A non-voting shares as at November 23, 2009. The bid commenced on November 28, 2009 and may continue to November 27, 2010.
12.08.2009
Looking at Manulife Financial Corporation performance
http://www.learningmarkets.com/index.php/200912079391/News-Feed/News-Feed/looking-at-manulife-financial-corporation-performance-since-earnings-mfc-ing-axa-lfc.html
=> I guess you can't analyze an insurance company like the following article. It add no value to determine whether an insurance company is worth to invest or not.
Monday, 07 December 2009 05:24
Earnings announcements can make investing tricky. Many investors try to time trades based on earnings releases, but usually find such trading is inconsistent and risky. It is often better to take a look at how the market has reacted to a company’s results a few weeks after the initial announcement.
Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) delivered its earnings announcement on 11/05. The company reported a change in quarter-over-quarter sales of 136.00% and posted an EPS (trailing twelve months) of - .81.
By now the market has had time to settle in and look closely at the numbers. A stock’s performance in the few weeks following an announcement, compared to other stocks in its industry, the industry as a whole, and market as a whole, really tells you how investors and analysts felt about the announcement.
Compared to the rest of the “Life Insurance” industry
Since the MFC announcement (about 30 days ago), the stock has posted a -10.78% gain (loss). Over that same period, the stock’s industry, Life Insurance, saw a 3.40% gain. That means MFC that has under-performed its industry as a whole 417.06% since the earnings announcement. Small differences aren’t significant, but when the spread is large it indicates the stock is either much more or much less favored than its group as a whole.
Compared to peers
Another way to gauge performance is look at a stock compared to other stocks in its industry with similar market caps. MFC peer ING GROUP NV ADS (ING) has seen a -28.91% stock price gain (loss) over about the last month, while another peer, AXA (AXA) saw a 1.06% gain. So with a return of -10.78%, Manulife Financial Corporation outgained ING and under-performed AXA’s price performance over the last month.
China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (LFC) is one of the largest stocks in the industry in terms of market cap, and over the same period has returned 10.99% in price.
Compared to the S&P 500 Index
Finally, let’s see how Manulife Financial Corporation stock performance compares to the rest of the market by looking at it compared to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (.INX). Since 11/05, the S&P 500 index has returned around 3.4%, and again, MFC saw about a -10.78% gain (loss) during that time. Could be better.
So by putting the returns in context by these comparisons, we can see how a stock’s performance since earnings really measures up and make our investing decisions on MFC accordingly.
=> I guess you can't analyze an insurance company like the following article. It add no value to determine whether an insurance company is worth to invest or not.
Monday, 07 December 2009 05:24
Earnings announcements can make investing tricky. Many investors try to time trades based on earnings releases, but usually find such trading is inconsistent and risky. It is often better to take a look at how the market has reacted to a company’s results a few weeks after the initial announcement.
Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) delivered its earnings announcement on 11/05. The company reported a change in quarter-over-quarter sales of 136.00% and posted an EPS (trailing twelve months) of - .81.
By now the market has had time to settle in and look closely at the numbers. A stock’s performance in the few weeks following an announcement, compared to other stocks in its industry, the industry as a whole, and market as a whole, really tells you how investors and analysts felt about the announcement.
Compared to the rest of the “Life Insurance” industry
Since the MFC announcement (about 30 days ago), the stock has posted a -10.78% gain (loss). Over that same period, the stock’s industry, Life Insurance, saw a 3.40% gain. That means MFC that has under-performed its industry as a whole 417.06% since the earnings announcement. Small differences aren’t significant, but when the spread is large it indicates the stock is either much more or much less favored than its group as a whole.
Compared to peers
Another way to gauge performance is look at a stock compared to other stocks in its industry with similar market caps. MFC peer ING GROUP NV ADS (ING) has seen a -28.91% stock price gain (loss) over about the last month, while another peer, AXA (AXA) saw a 1.06% gain. So with a return of -10.78%, Manulife Financial Corporation outgained ING and under-performed AXA’s price performance over the last month.
China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (LFC) is one of the largest stocks in the industry in terms of market cap, and over the same period has returned 10.99% in price.
Compared to the S&P 500 Index
Finally, let’s see how Manulife Financial Corporation stock performance compares to the rest of the market by looking at it compared to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (.INX). Since 11/05, the S&P 500 index has returned around 3.4%, and again, MFC saw about a -10.78% gain (loss) during that time. Could be better.
So by putting the returns in context by these comparisons, we can see how a stock’s performance since earnings really measures up and make our investing decisions on MFC accordingly.
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