Bilibala: it is possible Disney's EPS will go down cuz advertising contact was signed in 2009 when the economy is under recession. To me, I think the EPS will be the same as last year.
LOS ANGELES (AP) - Family entertainment giant The Walt Disney Co., which just absorbed Marvel Entertainment Inc., reports earnings for its fiscal first quarter after the market closes Tuesday.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: The advertising recovery will likely help Disney's ABC and ESPN television networks, but the question is by how much.
Disney's movie studio, which has been faltering lately, will likely cause a drag on earnings. The company overhauled management at the department in October and recently closed offices at niche label Miramax Films, which some competitors are interested in buying.
Consumer sentiment should be reflected in the performance of the company's theme parks. It is unclear how soon Disney will be able to wean itself off discounting to keep attendance up.
Also, Disney executives may discuss the possibility of entering into a deal to provide movies and TV shows to Apple Inc.'s iPad, which may help studio earnings down the road. Apple CEO Steve Jobs remains Disney's largest shareholder since the entertainment company bought Pixar in 2006.
WHY IT MATTERS: Disney is closely tethered to consumer psychology because the brand is well known around the world. It sells products ranging from movies and books to clothes and toys. A good quarter could bolster confidence in the broader economy.
WHAT'S EXPECTED: Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Disney to post 39 cents of adjusted earnings per share on sales of $9.62 billion.
LAST YEAR'S QUARTER: Disney reported an adjusted profit of 41 cents per share on revenue of $9.60 billion.
Showing posts with label 10 Guesitmation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 10 Guesitmation. Show all posts
2.05.2010
10.15.2009
Google 3q09 results
Google Inc.'s (GOOG) third-quarter earnings rose 27% to top Wall Street expectations as the Internet company recorded a return to sequential growth in traffic to its advertisers.
In after-hours trading, the company's shares were up 2.1% at $540.89. The stock, having more than doubled from November's lows, hit a 52-week high of $536.90 earlier Thursday.
The worst of the downturn passed with only a hiccup from the search-engine giant as the company is already setting plans to beef up operations after laying off workers for the first time earlier this year.
Although paid clicks had been pressured lately by the economy - falling 2% sequentially in the second quarter - the outlook has remained bright, especially with Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) bing.com's having so far been unable to shake Google's search dominance.
Google reported earnings of $1.64 billion, or $5.13 a share, compared with $1.29 billion, or $4.06 a share, a year ago. Excluding stock-based compensation, the figure rose to $5.89 a share from $4.92.
=> It is US$0.26 or 4.6% better than Bilibala's expectation of US$5.63 too.
Revenue rose 7.3% to $5.94 billion. Traffic-acquisition costs - commissions paid to marketing partners - totaled $1.56 billion, or 27% of advertising revenue.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected adjusted earnings of $5.42 a share on revenue of $4.24 billion, excluding traffic-acquisition costs.
=> Bilibala once again did a better guess than Wall Street
Google's U.S. paid clicks - a measure of how frequently consumers clicked on its ads - surged 14% from a year earlier and were up 4% from the second quarter. Costs per click fell 6% from a year earlier but rose 5% from the previous quarter.
-By Jay Miller, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2355; jay.miller@dowjones.com
In after-hours trading, the company's shares were up 2.1% at $540.89. The stock, having more than doubled from November's lows, hit a 52-week high of $536.90 earlier Thursday.
The worst of the downturn passed with only a hiccup from the search-engine giant as the company is already setting plans to beef up operations after laying off workers for the first time earlier this year.
Although paid clicks had been pressured lately by the economy - falling 2% sequentially in the second quarter - the outlook has remained bright, especially with Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) bing.com's having so far been unable to shake Google's search dominance.
Google reported earnings of $1.64 billion, or $5.13 a share, compared with $1.29 billion, or $4.06 a share, a year ago. Excluding stock-based compensation, the figure rose to $5.89 a share from $4.92.
=> It is US$0.26 or 4.6% better than Bilibala's expectation of US$5.63 too.
Revenue rose 7.3% to $5.94 billion. Traffic-acquisition costs - commissions paid to marketing partners - totaled $1.56 billion, or 27% of advertising revenue.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected adjusted earnings of $5.42 a share on revenue of $4.24 billion, excluding traffic-acquisition costs.
=> Bilibala once again did a better guess than Wall Street
Google's U.S. paid clicks - a measure of how frequently consumers clicked on its ads - surged 14% from a year earlier and were up 4% from the second quarter. Costs per click fell 6% from a year earlier but rose 5% from the previous quarter.
-By Jay Miller, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2355; jay.miller@dowjones.com
10.14.2009
Manulife 3q09 results forecast
Bilibala think Manulife's 3q09 adjusted EPS will be about CA$0.64, down from CA$1.09 (reported EPS) in 2q09 and up from CA$0.34 in 3q08. Bilibala may be a bit optimal, but i think Manulife's 2010 Outlook will be great.
In 3q09, here are some highlights to calculate my estimated EPS figures:
In 3q09, here are some highlights to calculate my estimated EPS figures:
- Corporate spread down by 30-40 bps => positive
- Risk free rate looks flat => neutral
- Market volatility down slightly from 27% to 24.5% => slightly positive
- Equity market doing great, up 9.8% in Toronto, 15.0% in USA and 14.0% in Hong Kong => positive
- USD to CAD dropped 13.72% => extremely negative
- as per 2q09 press release, management will put through $500M change in assumption (I think this figure will be around $300M instead of $500M) => negative
2010 Outlook
- Corporate spread should looks flat => neutral
- Risk free rate should go up => positive
- Market volatility should go down => positive
- Equity market should go up, but not as dramatic as 2009 => positive
- USD to CAD?? I don't know, I still think USD will not continue to fall => n/a
Just add some Manulife today at $22.41. No change on my target fair value.
10.09.2009
Guesitmation on Google's 3q09 results
=> let's see who's guess is more accurate, Bilibala or Wall Street.
=> Bilibala's guess on 3q09 adjusted EPS is US$5.63
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Google Inc. is expected to post gains in profit and sales when it reports third-quarter results after the market's close next Thursday, as the company is expected to benefit from a preference for online search advertising during the downturn, and from a concerted effort to cut costs.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimate Google
(GOOG 519.14, +4.96, +0.97%) will report earnings excluding special items of $5.37 a share for the period ended in September, and $4.2 billion in net revenue.
That compares to earnings excluding items of $4.92 a share, and $4 billion in net revenue in the same period last year.
Google's mainstay of online search advertising has suffered recently alongside the broader advertising market -- though it's also generally proven more resilient. Meanwhile, the company has continued to garner a much larger audience for its search service than its peers.
"We continue to believe that Q2 may have been the trough fundamentals quarter for Google on a reported trends basis, hence the positive outlook for Q3," Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
According to recent data from comScore Inc., Google had a 69% share of the international search market in August. Yahoo Inc. (YHOO 17.03, -0.55, -3.13%) had a 6.7% international market share, according to the data, while Microsoft Corp. (MSFT 25.60, -0.08, -0.29%) captured 2.3%.
As the economy makes an anticipated recovery this year, Google's search advertising business is expected to benefit -- though timing remains unclear.
Soleil Securities analyst Laura Martin told clients in a note published Wednesday that she recently lowered her estimate for Google's revenue in the third quarter by 2%, thanks to "an economy that is improving at a slower rate than we had previously projected."
However, Martin also acknowledged recent cost cutting at the Internet giant, and lowered her estimate of expenses in the quarter by 5%.
Justin Post of Bank of America/Merrill Lynch agreed that cost controls will likely benefit the company's bottom line. "We expect Google to continue to find cost efficiencies so we would expect revenue upside to flow to the bottom-line," he wrote in report Monday.
Google delivered earnings results in July that topped Wall Street estimates, thanks largely to cost cutting. Google executives told journalists in New York earlier this week that they've sought to reset expectations among employees for perks and other benefits, according to media reports.
Recent data cast some doubt on the health of the Internet advertising market as a whole. The Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP released a report earlier this week estimating that total online advertising revenue in the U.S. fell roughly 5% in the first half of this year.
Still, the report noted that search advertising actually rose slightly to $5.1 billion for the period. See related story.
Google's rate of so-called paid clicks, or the number of times users click on advertisements and generate revenue for the company, has tailed off of late, however. And the average price paid by advertisers, or cost-per-click, has flagged recently.
Brigantine Advisors analyst Colin Gillis told clients in a recent research note that a 5% to 10% increase in Google's cost-per-click rate in the third quarter compared to the prior period would be an "outstanding" result. Lower than 3% growth would be "disappointing," Gillis wrote.
Paid click growth, meanwhile, should "return to a positive range," Gillis wrote.
=> Bilibala's guess on 3q09 adjusted EPS is US$5.63
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Google Inc. is expected to post gains in profit and sales when it reports third-quarter results after the market's close next Thursday, as the company is expected to benefit from a preference for online search advertising during the downturn, and from a concerted effort to cut costs.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimate Google
(GOOG 519.14, +4.96, +0.97%) will report earnings excluding special items of $5.37 a share for the period ended in September, and $4.2 billion in net revenue.
That compares to earnings excluding items of $4.92 a share, and $4 billion in net revenue in the same period last year.
Google's mainstay of online search advertising has suffered recently alongside the broader advertising market -- though it's also generally proven more resilient. Meanwhile, the company has continued to garner a much larger audience for its search service than its peers.
"We continue to believe that Q2 may have been the trough fundamentals quarter for Google on a reported trends basis, hence the positive outlook for Q3," Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
According to recent data from comScore Inc., Google had a 69% share of the international search market in August. Yahoo Inc. (YHOO 17.03, -0.55, -3.13%) had a 6.7% international market share, according to the data, while Microsoft Corp. (MSFT 25.60, -0.08, -0.29%) captured 2.3%.
As the economy makes an anticipated recovery this year, Google's search advertising business is expected to benefit -- though timing remains unclear.
Soleil Securities analyst Laura Martin told clients in a note published Wednesday that she recently lowered her estimate for Google's revenue in the third quarter by 2%, thanks to "an economy that is improving at a slower rate than we had previously projected."
However, Martin also acknowledged recent cost cutting at the Internet giant, and lowered her estimate of expenses in the quarter by 5%.
Justin Post of Bank of America/Merrill Lynch agreed that cost controls will likely benefit the company's bottom line. "We expect Google to continue to find cost efficiencies so we would expect revenue upside to flow to the bottom-line," he wrote in report Monday.
Google delivered earnings results in July that topped Wall Street estimates, thanks largely to cost cutting. Google executives told journalists in New York earlier this week that they've sought to reset expectations among employees for perks and other benefits, according to media reports.
Recent data cast some doubt on the health of the Internet advertising market as a whole. The Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP released a report earlier this week estimating that total online advertising revenue in the U.S. fell roughly 5% in the first half of this year.
Still, the report noted that search advertising actually rose slightly to $5.1 billion for the period. See related story.
Google's rate of so-called paid clicks, or the number of times users click on advertisements and generate revenue for the company, has tailed off of late, however. And the average price paid by advertisers, or cost-per-click, has flagged recently.
Brigantine Advisors analyst Colin Gillis told clients in a recent research note that a 5% to 10% increase in Google's cost-per-click rate in the third quarter compared to the prior period would be an "outstanding" result. Lower than 3% growth would be "disappointing," Gillis wrote.
Paid click growth, meanwhile, should "return to a positive range," Gillis wrote.
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