Showing posts with label 08 $$ with Vision. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 08 $$ with Vision. Show all posts
3.16.2011
分析不斷
每逢遇上天災人禍, 做分析都變得有點監介, 怕被人指指點點, 說要發災難財, 就連自己也不自覺地為自己的滿身銅臭感到內疚.前 3日為日本地震/核危機, 雲南地震, 以及中東局勢祈禱, 和主耶穌討論當今局勢. 主給了 Billy & Bilibala 好好提醒:「你為何因為分析感到內疚?」Bilibala:「因為遇上天災人禍嘛!」主:「你是分析人, 在什么情况下, 做好分析是你的職份. 在平日是, 在艱難的日子更需要. 不是為了冷手執熱煎堆, 乃是為了讓人明白當今時勢和明天仍有盼望與否. 經濟金融分析不是牧師的專長, 不說財經演員, 時事評論/金融分析員不懂聖經. 要有兩套本事才可做好你的職份, 懂嗎?」就這樣, Billy & Bilibala 就重返岡位, 繼續如常分析, 就如每一天一樣.
3.14.2011
Top holding Asia/Europe 03/11/10
Bilibala Finance’s 5 Top Holding by Region:
(with net present value in 1 year)
Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
6. HSBC Holding (0005/HBC) US$67.3 BUY (pending to update)
7. IFSE A50 China Fund (2823) HK$22.4 STRONG BUY
· Mar 11 major transactions: n/a
· Japan huge magnitude 8.9 earthquake & 33 feet high Tsunami. Boats, cars and trucks were tossed around like toys in the water after a small tsunami hit the town.
· Pray that the government can save as many survivors as possible promptly.
· Geopolitical risk & concerns in Middle East and North Africa are still heating up, can u imagine few strong, powerful governor (for years) fell down at the same time within just 2-3 months?
· No one can tell what will happen next and who will rule those countries. Some think about the movie 2012 or Jesus’ 2nd coming…..
· to me, I think of one scripture: “And in the days of those kings, the God of heaven will put up a kingdom which will never come to destruction, and its power will never be given into the hands of another people, and all these kingdoms will be broken and overcome by it, but it will keep its place for ever.” (Daniel 2:44)
· All the kings are full of power, and all those can gone in a second, who is the real ruler in history?
· If our LORD is the true ruler in all time, should we set aside a time with Him, do a prior to 2010 performance review and set our post 2011 objectives for Him??
· If our LORD is the true ruler in all time, who should we afraid of? Our boss? The government? Recession?
· Lol, I know it is easy to say than do….
· Lots of financial release will be on late March or early April, I will comment more by that time.
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
(with net present value in 1 year)
Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
6. HSBC Holding (0005/HBC) US$67.3 BUY (pending to update)
7. IFSE A50 China Fund (2823) HK$22.4 STRONG BUY
· Mar 11 major transactions: n/a
· Japan huge magnitude 8.9 earthquake & 33 feet high Tsunami. Boats, cars and trucks were tossed around like toys in the water after a small tsunami hit the town.
· Pray that the government can save as many survivors as possible promptly.
· Geopolitical risk & concerns in Middle East and North Africa are still heating up, can u imagine few strong, powerful governor (for years) fell down at the same time within just 2-3 months?
· No one can tell what will happen next and who will rule those countries. Some think about the movie 2012 or Jesus’ 2nd coming…..
· to me, I think of one scripture: “And in the days of those kings, the God of heaven will put up a kingdom which will never come to destruction, and its power will never be given into the hands of another people, and all these kingdoms will be broken and overcome by it, but it will keep its place for ever.” (Daniel 2:44)
· All the kings are full of power, and all those can gone in a second, who is the real ruler in history?
· If our LORD is the true ruler in all time, should we set aside a time with Him, do a prior to 2010 performance review and set our post 2011 objectives for Him??
· If our LORD is the true ruler in all time, who should we afraid of? Our boss? The government? Recession?
· Lol, I know it is easy to say than do….
· Lots of financial release will be on late March or early April, I will comment more by that time.
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
11.22.2010
Top holding in Asia/Europe 11/22/10
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 HOLD
5. Shiu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 HOLD
5. Shiu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY
- China increased bank reserve ratio by 50 bps to 18.5%, historical highest & reduce next year’s borrowing target for big 4 banks, which will reduce R$350B credit flow in market. These are some softer policies to cool down the “hot” money, although it may hurt the potential growth of the bank sector – whose profit rely heavily on borrowing & deposit, on the other hand, it will lower the credit risk and decelerate the growth of the financial “bubble”
- I really upset & disappointed about the way China government handle with 趙連海, I don’t understand why, it is not political and if this (I mean if) is merely a civil case towards a corporation, and if the government don’t want to pay the compensation to all babies who got sick, that’s easy, just let 3 6 went bankrupt and re-open again 3 6 with the same management team few years later (of course, this is not ethical too). The government just don’t need to do such thing, it hurt everyone’s trust to China’s legal system and its political image in short term and if China continue this way, economy is everything and it is nothing, it will just lead the entire country, our nation, our home land, towards death. 趙連海 is really one of the righteous person in this injustice society, someone I should learn from (although I really don’t want to end up in jail) not just fighting for the rights on behave of his baby kid, but for the poor girl who got raped publicly in police station (make me think of the story in bible – judge c19-21).
3.01.2010
勤炒股可长寿
Bilibala: interesting sharing!! Analyzing makes a person healthy, but over excite/depress may make a person unhealthy, how can we have the 1st one without the latter one?
from 譚紹興投資學堂
日前在内地的报章，看到一名 99岁高龄的长者，其长寿秘诀想不到竟然是炒卖股票，真有点令人意外！据报道，此老翁自退休后便开始进入股市，当一名全职股民。在过去十多年，他每日也在早上 9时多便到证券行，一直坐至午后 3时收市才离开。可能基于这关系，他十年如一日地过着如此有规律的生活，人也自然较为健康。
这老翁平日也极之留意股份之动态及消息，并作详细研究，因而不至闲来无所事事，其精神也较佳。据闻此老翁应该是湖南现时年龄最高的股民之一。
笔者的学员中，亦有一位高龄长者，他对股票、窝轮、期指及外汇等投资产品可谓无一不精，可能是他肯下苦功研究，再加上有耐性的关系，在过去多年，其投资回报颇为不俗。从其思想敏锐、健步如飞及行动敏捷的情况来看，专注投资股份有助身体健康，可能也有些关系吧(当然是指赚到钱)。
可是假若港股的每日波幅也如昨日般，高低位相距 600点，则不但不能长寿，对健康可能有一定影响，非有良好心脏负荷能力不可。
from 譚紹興投資學堂
日前在内地的报章，看到一名 99岁高龄的长者，其长寿秘诀想不到竟然是炒卖股票，真有点令人意外！据报道，此老翁自退休后便开始进入股市，当一名全职股民。在过去十多年，他每日也在早上 9时多便到证券行，一直坐至午后 3时收市才离开。可能基于这关系，他十年如一日地过着如此有规律的生活，人也自然较为健康。
这老翁平日也极之留意股份之动态及消息，并作详细研究，因而不至闲来无所事事，其精神也较佳。据闻此老翁应该是湖南现时年龄最高的股民之一。
笔者的学员中，亦有一位高龄长者，他对股票、窝轮、期指及外汇等投资产品可谓无一不精，可能是他肯下苦功研究，再加上有耐性的关系，在过去多年，其投资回报颇为不俗。从其思想敏锐、健步如飞及行动敏捷的情况来看，专注投资股份有助身体健康，可能也有些关系吧(当然是指赚到钱)。
可是假若港股的每日波幅也如昨日般，高低位相距 600点，则不但不能长寿，对健康可能有一定影响，非有良好心脏负荷能力不可。
12.01.2009
手機“掃黃”中國移動砸出1億
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/zgjx/2009-12/02/content_12573593.htm
手機網站傳播淫穢色情信息的事實報道再次刺痛了中國移動的神經。11月27日，中國移動總裁王建宙宣布，中國移動 將追加1億元專項資金進行技術攻關，進一步建立和完善WAP不良信息監測係統，堅定不移地打擊手機WAP色情網站。而截至11月26日18時，中國移動共 封堵手機色情網站564個，其中428個網站服務器在境外，136個網站服務器在國內(其中有6個網站托管在中國移動的數據中心，已徹底切斷並報告公安部 門)。
手機網站傳播淫穢色情信息的事實報道再次刺痛了中國移動的神經。11月27日，中國移動總裁王建宙宣布，中國移動 將追加1億元專項資金進行技術攻關，進一步建立和完善WAP不良信息監測係統，堅定不移地打擊手機WAP色情網站。而截至11月26日18時，中國移動共 封堵手機色情網站564個，其中428個網站服務器在境外，136個網站服務器在國內(其中有6個網站托管在中國移動的數據中心，已徹底切斷並報告公安部 門)。
三舉措查封手機“黃”網站564個
王建宙表示，新聞媒體報道後，中國移動立刻全員動員鐵腕查封“黃毒”。目前已採取三項措施。
一是通過人工撥測、群眾舉報和媒體曝光等各種方式發現淫穢色情網站，一經查實，依法封堵。截至11月26日18時，中國移動共封堵手機色情網站564個， 其中428個網站服務器在境外，136個網站服務器在國內(其中有6個網站托管在中國移動的數據中心，已徹底切斷並報告公安部門)。
二是強化合作業務管理，對所有與中國移動WAP業務有收費協議的服務提供商和內容提供商暫停計費，清查並要求保證禁止利用廣告聯盟等第三方進行業務推廣， 並確保其自身信息安全性。
三是為防止違規鏈接，在建立有效監控係統之前，中國移動停止通過網際網路網站推銷 自有業務。封堵過程中，部分色情網站經常採用一些變換地址的方法，使得封堵難度加大。對此，王建宙表示，中國移動將追加1億元專項資金進行技術攻關，進一 步建立和完善WAP不良信息監測係統，堅定不移地打擊手機WAP色情網站。
不會因利益分成縱容色情網站
據悉，手機用戶質疑色情網站同時帶動中國移動數據流量收入。因此，中國移動可能對 色情網站“網開一面”或者“睜一只眼閉一只眼”。對此，王建宙表示，中國移動作為國有骨幹企業，絕不會為追求經濟收益而放棄自己的社會責任，絕不會為經營 發展而姑息縱容手機色情網站。打擊淫穢色情手機網站，清理整治各種不良信息，從事網絡運營的電信運營商具有義不容辭的責任。
中國移動數據部總經理高念書則介紹，獨立WAP網站1年能帶來收入120億， 大部分獨立網站是好的，涉黃的500個網站，1年帶來流量收入2000萬，佔中國移動總收入0.052%。他指出，“從利益角度來說，我們是沒有任何理由 和必要來縱容涉黃的”。 記者 李光焱
11.11.2009
中國移動承諾業務量能耗下降20%
中廣網北京11月11日消息 工業和資訊化部、中國行動通訊集團公司今天在北京簽署《節能自願協議》，中國移動承諾，以2008年能源消耗為基準，到 2012年12月底實現單位業務量耗電下降20%的目標，實現節約用電118億度。這是中國通信業第一份節能自願協議。為了達到這一目標，中國移動將在國 家支援下深入推進“綠色行動計劃”。
工業和資訊化部圍繞十大產業調整和振興規劃的實施，把節能降耗減排作為應對金融危機、落實“ 保增長、擴內需、調結構”政策措施、促進工業經濟平穩較快發展的重要舉措。在通信業領域中，積極推動節能自願協議等節能減排新機制的應用。在大力促進通信 業健康快速發展的同時，促進兩化融合，制定通信業節能減排的政策措施，支援節能新技術、新工藝、新產品的開發、示範和推廣，加強節能減排標準的制定和應 用。
中國移動於2007年啟動了以節能減排為核心的“綠色行動計劃”，從企業自身、行業及社會三個層面發展綠色通信產業。在企業 內部推廣通信網路節能新技術和新設計，提高通信系統和配套設施能源使用效率，大範圍應用行動通訊基站智慧通風等自然冷卻技術及風能、太陽能等可再生能源。 在行業中，中國移動與53家主要供應商簽訂“綠色行動計劃”戰略合作備忘錄，共同制定並實施通信設備能效分級標準，不斷擴大通信產品“綠色包裝”使用範 圍，共同研發基站節能型空調，推廣SIM卡小卡化和回收再利用等。
工業和資訊化部圍繞十大產業調整和振興規劃的實施，把節能降耗減排作為應對金融危機、落實“ 保增長、擴內需、調結構”政策措施、促進工業經濟平穩較快發展的重要舉措。在通信業領域中，積極推動節能自願協議等節能減排新機制的應用。在大力促進通信 業健康快速發展的同時，促進兩化融合，制定通信業節能減排的政策措施，支援節能新技術、新工藝、新產品的開發、示範和推廣，加強節能減排標準的制定和應 用。
中國移動於2007年啟動了以節能減排為核心的“綠色行動計劃”，從企業自身、行業及社會三個層面發展綠色通信產業。在企業 內部推廣通信網路節能新技術和新設計，提高通信系統和配套設施能源使用效率，大範圍應用行動通訊基站智慧通風等自然冷卻技術及風能、太陽能等可再生能源。 在行業中，中國移動與53家主要供應商簽訂“綠色行動計劃”戰略合作備忘錄，共同制定並實施通信設備能效分級標準，不斷擴大通信產品“綠色包裝”使用範 圍，共同研發基站節能型空調，推廣SIM卡小卡化和回收再利用等。
（責任編輯：陳磊）
10.07.2009
Aging impact
发布时间： 2009-07-24
http://www.stdaily.com 2009年07月24日 来源： 科技日报 作者：
再过40年，全球人口老化可能会颠覆世人对“中年”、“长者”的定义。据香港《文汇报》21日报道，美国人口调查局最新研究指出，目前全球65岁以上老人的增长速度是历来最快。到2050年，全球达“期颐之年”(100岁)的人瑞将迫近600万人；在2017年，全球65岁以上老人数目更将超越5岁以下小童，是人类有史以来的首次。
在古时，活过“期颐之年”几乎是梦想，但目前全球年过100岁的人口，已由1950年的数千急增至34万，到本世纪中更会增加近20倍，至600万人，当中尤以美国及日本最多百岁人瑞。届时日本人口年龄中位数将由37岁急升至55岁，“中年”年龄层或须重新定义。
截至2008年中，全球65岁以上长者人口约5.06亿。美国人口调查局预计，到2040年，数字将升至13亿，占届时全球总人口的14%。当中，年过80的“最老”一群更会急增133%，为子孙一代带来沉重压力。
撰写报告的人口调查员何万及金塞拉指出，长者人口急增的主因是战后婴儿潮陆续迈向老年，加上长者死亡率持续下降。目前全球长者增长速度为每月87万，10年后，每月将有190万人同时庆祝65岁生日。
报告指出，由于劳动及退休人口比例改变，退休时间在整个人生的比重增加，将加重对退休保障制度的压力。老人病如心脏病、癌症等，亦会大大增加社会医疗开支。此外，出生率下降令照顾长者的家庭成员减少，“将来会出现70岁的”孩子“照顾100岁的父母，这对照顾者而言是极大的压力。”
无论发达还是发展中国家，都难免受人口老化影响，报告引用2006年欧盟研究指出，假如没足够政策配合，到2030年，人口老化将令欧盟经济增长速度减慢一半。但作者认为，假如政府及商界能推出相应措施，或许能将人口老化转变为经济机遇。
本篇文章来源于 科技网www.stdaily.com
原文链接：http://www.stdaily.com/kjrb/content/2009-07/24/content_86451.htm
=> aging is an important mega trend in the world, and it affect almost everything in our life and the world economy, also investment strategy!!
http://www.stdaily.com 2009年07月24日 来源： 科技日报 作者：
再过40年，全球人口老化可能会颠覆世人对“中年”、“长者”的定义。据香港《文汇报》21日报道，美国人口调查局最新研究指出，目前全球65岁以上老人的增长速度是历来最快。到2050年，全球达“期颐之年”(100岁)的人瑞将迫近600万人；在2017年，全球65岁以上老人数目更将超越5岁以下小童，是人类有史以来的首次。
在古时，活过“期颐之年”几乎是梦想，但目前全球年过100岁的人口，已由1950年的数千急增至34万，到本世纪中更会增加近20倍，至600万人，当中尤以美国及日本最多百岁人瑞。届时日本人口年龄中位数将由37岁急升至55岁，“中年”年龄层或须重新定义。
截至2008年中，全球65岁以上长者人口约5.06亿。美国人口调查局预计，到2040年，数字将升至13亿，占届时全球总人口的14%。当中，年过80的“最老”一群更会急增133%，为子孙一代带来沉重压力。
撰写报告的人口调查员何万及金塞拉指出，长者人口急增的主因是战后婴儿潮陆续迈向老年，加上长者死亡率持续下降。目前全球长者增长速度为每月87万，10年后，每月将有190万人同时庆祝65岁生日。
报告指出，由于劳动及退休人口比例改变，退休时间在整个人生的比重增加，将加重对退休保障制度的压力。老人病如心脏病、癌症等，亦会大大增加社会医疗开支。此外，出生率下降令照顾长者的家庭成员减少，“将来会出现70岁的”孩子“照顾100岁的父母，这对照顾者而言是极大的压力。”
无论发达还是发展中国家，都难免受人口老化影响，报告引用2006年欧盟研究指出，假如没足够政策配合，到2030年，人口老化将令欧盟经济增长速度减慢一半。但作者认为，假如政府及商界能推出相应措施，或许能将人口老化转变为经济机遇。
本篇文章来源于 科技网www.stdaily.com
原文链接：http://www.stdaily.com/kjrb/content/2009-07/24/content_86451.htm
=> aging is an important mega trend in the world, and it affect almost everything in our life and the world economy, also investment strategy!!
9.10.2009
2.6 million more people into poverty
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The first year of recession took a toll on household incomes, drove 2.6 million more people into poverty, and cost 1 million people their employer-provided health care, the government reported Thursday.
Real median household income fell 3.6% in 2008 to $50,303, while the number of people living in poverty rose by 2.6 million to a record 39.8 million, or 13.2% of the population, up from 12.5% in 2007, the Census Bureau said. Read the full report.
Real median incomes had risen for three straight years before the dropoff in 2008. The decline in median incomes in 2008 was similar to that seen in the past two recessions, but less than in the years around the 1974 and 1982 recessions
In a finding sure to resonate with the debate on health-insurance reform, the government reported that the number of Americans without health insurance at any time during the year climbed by 800,000 to 46.3 million, or 15.4% of the population. The percentage of uninsured was unchanged from 2007 and has been essentially unchanged since 1991.
The number of people receiving employer-provided health care fell by 1 million to 176 million, while the number under government-funded health-care rose by 4.4 million to 87.4 million. About 25 million have private insurance not provided by an employer.
About 21 million people worked full-time but had no health insurance.
The number of children without health insurance fell to 7.3 million, the lowest since 1987, when the data were first collected. Fewer than 10% of children were uninsured, while 20% of adults under 65 were uninsured. Fewer than 2% of people over 65 were uninsured.
Nearly half of noncitizens were uninsured, accounting for about one-fifth of the total uninsured.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
Bilibala comments:
Poor & needy people are normally the one who suffer the most in recession and benefit the less in times of recover (hurt by inflation with less or even none of salary increase).
If we can free up our hand & some of our money to offer support, we should do so.
Real median household income fell 3.6% in 2008 to $50,303, while the number of people living in poverty rose by 2.6 million to a record 39.8 million, or 13.2% of the population, up from 12.5% in 2007, the Census Bureau said. Read the full report.
Real median incomes had risen for three straight years before the dropoff in 2008. The decline in median incomes in 2008 was similar to that seen in the past two recessions, but less than in the years around the 1974 and 1982 recessions
In a finding sure to resonate with the debate on health-insurance reform, the government reported that the number of Americans without health insurance at any time during the year climbed by 800,000 to 46.3 million, or 15.4% of the population. The percentage of uninsured was unchanged from 2007 and has been essentially unchanged since 1991.
The number of people receiving employer-provided health care fell by 1 million to 176 million, while the number under government-funded health-care rose by 4.4 million to 87.4 million. About 25 million have private insurance not provided by an employer.
About 21 million people worked full-time but had no health insurance.
The number of children without health insurance fell to 7.3 million, the lowest since 1987, when the data were first collected. Fewer than 10% of children were uninsured, while 20% of adults under 65 were uninsured. Fewer than 2% of people over 65 were uninsured.
Nearly half of noncitizens were uninsured, accounting for about one-fifth of the total uninsured.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
Bilibala comments:
Poor & needy people are normally the one who suffer the most in recession and benefit the less in times of recover (hurt by inflation with less or even none of salary increase).
If we can free up our hand & some of our money to offer support, we should do so.
8.20.2009
How many hours to get a Big-Mac
The Economist:
THE size of your pay packet may be important, but so is its purchasing power. Helpfully, a UBS report published this week offers a handy guide to how long it takes a worker on the average net wage to earn the price of a Big Mac in 73 cities. Fast-food junkies are best off in Chicago, Toronto and Tokyo, where it takes a mere 12 minutes at work to afford a Big Mac. By contrast, employees must toil for over two hours to earn enough for a burger fix in Mexico City, Jakarta and Nairobi.
Bilibala comments:
It remind me how treasure and thankful my daily living is. Also it remind me there is a lot of people who are poor and needy, that I should keep them in pray and offer helps.
THE size of your pay packet may be important, but so is its purchasing power. Helpfully, a UBS report published this week offers a handy guide to how long it takes a worker on the average net wage to earn the price of a Big Mac in 73 cities. Fast-food junkies are best off in Chicago, Toronto and Tokyo, where it takes a mere 12 minutes at work to afford a Big Mac. By contrast, employees must toil for over two hours to earn enough for a burger fix in Mexico City, Jakarta and Nairobi.
Bilibala comments:
It remind me how treasure and thankful my daily living is. Also it remind me there is a lot of people who are poor and needy, that I should keep them in pray and offer helps.
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