America - 04/01/11

America (52.6% of asset mix) (with net present value in 1 year) 1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY 2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$754.6 BUY 3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY 4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 => US$25.2 HOLD => BUY 5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD 6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update) 7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY (pending to update) · Mar 11 major transactions: switch Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$52.0 to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.3; add Canadian Pacific CA$61.20; sold TransCanada at CA$39.2 · General Electric may get into lawsuit on Japan’s nuclear crisis. So far, analysts think it is very unlikely for GE to have a high contingency loss. On the other hand, given the fact that lots of people rise concern about the security of nuclear power, Bilibala think GE will receive lots of additional orders · government will not and cannot replace all nuclear plant at once, clearer energy to use are wind & solar, which both will benefit GE · in order to improve security & safety, government need to spend more on existing nuclear plant, which will benefit GE as well · Investors rise concerns on the internal control of Berkshire Hathaway on how Warren Buffett handle David Sokol purchase of Lubrizol stocks in Jan 11 just before Berkshire Hathaway announce to acquire it in Mar 11 & took a capital gain of $3M. To me, even Mr Buffett think Sokol did nothing wrong, as a CEO of a well respected giant corporation, the way he managed this issue should be done better by taking action and disclose it earlier. · As some of you hold RIM (Research in Motion), let me spend some time to share my opinion. · 2010 revenue & profit up 33% & 47% to US$19.9B & US$3.4B compare to last year while net margin improved from 16.4% to 17.1% · According to its own outlook, 2011 revenue & profit will up 41% & 22% to US$28.0B & US$4.2B while net margin will fall from 17.1% to 14.8% (with a estimated 2011 market shares in smart phone of about 15%) · Some analysts said RIM will be the next Nortel Network, Bilibala don’t think that will be the case cuz: 1. RIM’s earning growth is strong, above 20% per year, while price over earnings ratio is just 9, in comparison to Nortel’s tiny earnings and over 100 P/E before it fall, they are totally different 2. RIM has no long term debt, while Nortel had tones!! · Yes, RIM’s growth is slowing down, its profit margin is dropping, but given its P/E ratio at 9, PEG ratio of 0.5. I still think RIM should have potential to climb back to CA$70. Even though I won’t recommend a BUY, but for those who are holding it, Bilibala’s suggestion is to hold till release of 1st quarter (around jun 2011), the price should climb back because I think its earnings will beat expectation. · With more information, Bilibala will revised Manulife Financial’s Japan earthquake impact. · Assume 30,000 death, 80% insurance penetration, 8% market shares, CA$0.5M coverage, 80% loss & found & submitted claims, offset with 10% reserve release, the additional losses set up for the event will be CA$0.7B, less 29% tax rate, after tax impact will be CA$0.49B, while equity market rebound, estimate drop in EPS is about CA$0.3. # Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant. · STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30% · BUY btw 15% to 30% · HOLD btw (15%) to 15% · RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

America - 03/25/11

America (53.6% of asset mix) (with net present value in 1 year) 1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY 2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$754.6 BUY 3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY 4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 HOLD 5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD 6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update) 7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY · Mar 11 major transactions: switch Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$52.0 to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.3; add Canadian Pacific C$61.20; add Manulife (MFC) between C$15.8-C$16.2 · Manulife Financial: no revised adjustment on $1.2B reserve change due to Japan earthquake. Claims cost increase as # of death rise will offset by equity market recovered. The actual reserve # may be lesser. · Research in Motion release its 4q10 earnings, above expectation but lower its 1q11 sales, trigger the shares down 11% on Friday. Its blackberry continue to grow in # of sales, however, to lots of individual customers, Apple & Google are a much better choice. Its Playbook launch too late, again, no one think it will win the battle. On the other hand, the share price is just $55, with P/E ratio lower than 9. Is this a opportunity or not? To Bilibala who has already hold Google, I won’t consider it. # Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant. · STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30% · BUY btw 15% to 30% · HOLD btw (15%) to 15% · RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

Asia/Europe - 03/25/11

Bilibala Finance’s 7 Top Holding by Region: (with net present value in 1 year) Asia / Europe (46.4% of asset mix) 1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$101.2 STRONG BUY 2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 => HK$41.5 STRONG BUY 3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY 4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD 5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY (pending to update) 6. HSBC Holding (0005/HBC) US$67.3 BUY (pending to update) 7. IFSE A50 China Fund (2823) HK$22.4 STRONG BUY · Mar 11 major transactions: add Honda Motor (HMC) US$36.93; add MTR (0066) HK$29.1; add China Resource Power (0836) HK$13.0 · China Life 2010 earnings up 2.3% to RM$1.19 meet expectation. However, as I kept mentioned, earnings is irrelevant to the valuation of an insurance co. Let’s read those meaningful data · Analysts concerns about loss ratio, let’s look at it 1st, it up 1.5% to 88.5% (mainly because of addition reserve on higher premium) to me, it looks reasonable. Combine ratio up 0.6% to 108.8% (which means every dollar of premium China Life received, it loss about 8.8 cents if excluding investment). Premium earned up 15.6% to RM$318B while value of business up 22.5%, looks great with strong growth. Sales to VNB up by 3.2% to 16.2 times, VNB up slightly slower than premium growth · Future sales growth continue looks great, as interest rate continue to go up while equity market is recovering and should back to peak in 10 years, China Life is in nice growing pace · Embedded value up 4.9% to RM$10.6 & based on all estimation & assumption, I will calculate China Life’s value at 4.05 times of its embedded value & discounted by 25.3% (instead of 21.6% previously) to come up with Bilibala’s new NPV of HK$41.5. · Japan Economy: Japan 1q11 GDP for sure will be hurt by the earthquake & the fall of the national electricity capacities, but most of the analysts think it will pick up in 3q & 4q (Bilibala think it will pick up even earlier than that) · Japan government estimate the damage will be US$0.3T and death may end up close to 30,000. · Bilibala believes in Keynesian Economic Theory, the damage may help Japan to have more meaningful & useful construction development. Given the following fact: 1. Japan’s debt will top 213% of total GDP (after counting the damage, the highest among G7), however, its net debt is only 120% (similar or bit lesser than the PIIGS), 94% of all debts are holding within Japan (means the government do not have interest rising pressure from foreign investors nor force to cut expenditures). 2. Also, Japan’s citizens are rich, having US$14T saving, while there are only US$7T government debt. Meaning Japan still have room to borrow from its nation to spend in order to boost up economy 3. In normal time, Japan can’t change much, where’s now, I hope the government will be able to try something “new”, instead of holding the money supply tie to control inflation, it should let inflation grow a bit to stimulate consumption and economic activities · Corporation like Automotive Toyota, Honda, Nissan etc, lol, you may think they are in big trouble cuz few of their plants have been damaged badly. Production line stopped till end of march, may affect global auto sales. But is it really bad for Japanese auto makers? Think again!! 1. insurance will compensate all the damage in the plants 2. parts can be produced in all other unaffected plants around the world 3. while lots of cars are total loss, people have to buy brand new cars in the coming 2-3 years, and they will most likely buy their own nation’s cars · I will talk about the impact to China economy later. # Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant. · STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30% · BUY btw 15% to 30% · HOLD btw (15%) to 15% · RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

America - 03/21/11

Bilibala Finance’s 7 Top Holding by Region:
(with net present value in 1 year)
(53.7% of asset mix)
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$754.6 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update)
7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY (pending to update)

· Mar 11 major transactions: switch Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$52.0 to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.3; add Manulife (MFC) between C$15.8-C$16.2 add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0
· Warren Buffett pull the trigger to buy Lubrizol, a lubricant maker for $9B. Can’t tell whether it is good or not, but global demand on lubricant are rising. Also Berkshire Hathaway held 10% share in Munich Re (10% SwissRe is preferred shares only, will have no impact), It sure took the hit from Japan earthquake

# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

Top holding - America 03/11/11

Bilibala Finance’s 5 Top Holding by Region:
(with net present value in 1 year)
American
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 => US$754.6 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update)
7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY (pending to update)
· Mar 11 major transactions: switch to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.34; add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0; add American Express (AXP) US$43.2
· Why Bilibala buy Suncor? Bilibala sold Petro Canada in 2008 at $37.0 when it announced it will merge with Suncor. At that time Suncor’s debt to equity ratio was high at 54%. Given the uncertainty of whether the “marriage” will be a success or disaster, I sold it and bought Imperial Oil, lower debt, better management & technology support by Exxon Mobil (XOM), by given up the potential growth opportunity of what Suncor & Petro Canada have. In 2 years, I can see the huge improvement in Suncor by lowering its debt to equity ratio to 34% with a promise by management they will lower it further before 30% in 2011. While Imperial Oil has already ran above my expectation & fulfill its mission, I will now switch to Suncor. The reason why Suncor fall short while oil price up is cuz it has investment in Libya and have higher uncertainty of potential losses & damage. I think the political issue can go on for a long period, but who ever gain power will not destroy the energy business
· Why Bilibala add Berkshire Hathaway? I’ve reviewed the whole 2010 annual report. Looks great as usual!! Add back cuz I found out Todd Comb (the one I don’t like or do not impress) only replace Liu in GEICO who manage a portfolio of $3-4B. Looking forward, its investment income growth may slow down, given the fact General Electric & Goldman Sech will most likely buy back the preferred shares on a 10% redemption fees this year. By that time, Berkshires Hathaway will have lower before tax dividend/interest income by $0.8B, which is a lot of $$.

# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

Top Holding - US/Canada

1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 => US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 => US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$83.8 => CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
7. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$47.8 HOLD
· Mar 11 major transactions: add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0; add American Express (AXP) US$43.2
· TD Bank report great results!! Compare to 1q10:
· 1q11 adjusted EPS up 8% to CA$1.74; net interest income up 11%, fee income up 5%, loan provision down by 20%, book value down up slightly by 3%
· 1q earnings usually the highest among all quarters (cuz more investment & underwriting activities) so I don’t think this result will repeat in 2q-4q
· As interest rate may rise in 2H2011, it may hurt TD’s interest margin
· Regulatory change on mortgage (from 35 year to 30 year start from Apr 11) may hurt real estate market’s activities, but should have no impact on TD’s interest income
· Even the interest rate may rise & higher gas price offset with the lower unemployment rate & slow economy pick up, I think loan provision will stay flat for 2011 compare to 2010
· 2011 adjusted EPS expectation is CA$6.46
· Great reminder from Warren Buffett in 2010 annual report: http://bilibala-life.blogspot.com/

# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)

Eric Schmidt expects another 10 years at Google

Bilibala: it is hard to tell the future, but i wish Eric will stay with Google and help it to grow even bigger.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70O2TE20110125?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

(Reuters) - Google's Chief Executive Eric Schmidt said he expected to spend another 10 years at the company, after his surprise handover last week to co-founder Larry Page.

Schmidt, who from April will focus on deals and government outreach as executive chairman, also said the group would hire thousands of people this year, rejecting accusations that it has struggled to keep its best talent from leaving for Facebook and other Silicon Valley rivals.
"I'm very personally excited about my next decade at Google," Schmidt, who oversaw Google's meteoric rise, told the DLD media conference in Munich on Tuesday.

He told Reuters on January 21 that his move was an effort to speed up decision-making.
"In strategy we agree. There's no disagreement," Schmidt said of his relationship with Page, in a news conference following his DLD appearance.

"In character, he's fundamentally a deeper thinker than anybody else," he said. "He sees a few moves deeper than I do."

Schmidt is also set to get a $100 million equity award, his first since joining the company in 2001, which will vest over four years and includes stock units and options.

Google last week reported earnings and revenue that far exceeded expectations.
But while Google has dominated Internet search, it has struggled with social networking and is facing stiff competition from companies like Facebook and Twitter, which are stealing web traffic and perceived to be poaching engineering talent.

Schmidt rejected the notion that Google was losing key people. "Our retention has been actually the same and our turnover has been exactly the same for seven years," he said. "We're going to be hiring many thousands of people this year."

Schmidt said that in his new role he would be able to spend more time on government issues and Google's public image, among other things.

"We've got very complicated government issues, he said, adding however that Google's position in China appeared to be stable for the time being, following a renewal of its license there last June.

Google threatened to pull out of China after a high-profile hacking incident but eventually came to an agreement with the government and now runs a reduced service.

"I think it's stable, he said, before adding: "You never know. It's possible for the government of China to cause us not to work."

Schmidt said Google had considered stopping indexing confidential cables released by WikiLeaks, but had decided to carry on. Some other U.S. organizations have bowed to government pressure to stop cooperating with the controversial site.

"Has Google looked at the appropriateness of indexing WikiLeaks? The answer is yes, and we decided to continue," he said. "Because it's legal."

(Reporting by Georgina Prodhan; Editing by Jane Merriman and Jon Loades-Carter)

Google 4q10 earning release & management resturcture

Bilibala: I think the management resturcture is more like an annoucement to help the shareholders to have a clear understand about Google's senior management team's role & responsiblities.
4q10 results looks great even assume FX rate are constant.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70I0BX20110121?feedType=nl&feedName=usmorningdigest

Google's Page brings change and questions

Reuters) - Larry Page will need a rare combination of vision and solid management skills when he takes over at Google in April.

One day after Google's surprise announcement that Page would replace Eric Schmidt as chief executive officer, investors and industry insiders are grappling with how the change will affect the world's No.1 Internet search company.

"What's going to change under Larry?" said BGC Partners analyst Colin Gillis, asking the question on the minds of executives from Silicon Valley to New York City.

"In our opinion, Larry is likely to increase investments as a priority. It could be a long-term positive, but short term it's a negative."

The company hopes 38-year-old Page will help streamline decision-making as it tries to deal with tougher competition from Facebook and Twitter.

Within technology circles, the move to replace Eric Schmidt left some wondering if Page can make a successful comeback to the company he helped create during the first dot-com boom. For a list of tech executive departures and hires see: r.reuters.com/pyh67r
"Founder becoming CEO ... Is this like a Steve Jobs returning or a Jerry Yang returning?" tweeted Chris Dixon, a technology veteran who has invested in Skype and Foursquare.
Steve Jobs returned to Apple Inc in the 1990s to save the company he founded. Yahoo Inc's Jerry Yang made a similar comeback, returning to his Internet company during a troubled stretch, but failed to restore its fortunes.

"It is important to note that, although the titles have changed, the core team remains the same ... this new team structure makes a lot of sense and could result in faster decision making," JP Morgan analysts led by Imran Khan said.

Some analysts believe Google's stock could gain another 20 percent from current levels.
Brokerage UBS said it was bullish on Google's long-term prospects and expects the company's focus on its emerging display network business, YouTube, Android and enterprise customers to deliver healthy returns in 2011.

Fourth-quarter operating margins were slightly weaker than expected at 53 percent on higher sales and marketing expenses.

JP Morgan's Khan, who lowered his 2011 operating margin estimates by less than a percentage point to 52.4 percent, said the expenses are necessary to promote future growth.

Evercore Partners, however, said it was still concerned about Facebook's growth trajectory and deepening integration with third party sites. Investors have speculated Facebook could cut into Google's business if advertisers shift to the social network.

Google Inc shares -- which gained 2 percent following Thursday's better-than-expected quarterly results and the announcement of the CEO change -- finished Friday's regular trading session 2.4 percent down at $611.83. The shares of Mountain View, California-based Google have risen 16 percent since Google reported third-quarter results mid-October and are up almost 45 percent from its 52-week low of $433.63 touched in July 2010.

(Reporting by Paul Thomasch in New York, Alexei Oreskovic in San Francisco and Sayantani Ghosh and Mary Meyase in Bangalore; editing by Joyjeet Das, Phil Berlowitz and Andre Grenon)

Wells Fargo 4q10 earning release

Bilibala: 4q10 EPS $0.61 sightly off than what I expected $0.63. Mainly because its net interest income $11.1B looks flat compare to 3q10. While loan provision down further by 14% to 3.0B, its non interest expenses also move up to 13.3B or 8%. Excluded the 0.4B of the expense related to a 3 years charible donation, expenses up 5%, still higher than expected.

To Bilibala, i think Wells Fargos price over book ratio 1.38 is higher than peers, and since price move up from around $25 (3 months ago) to $32 now, I will change my recommendation from Strong Buy to Buy.


http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70I3FN20110119?feedType=nl&feedName=usbusinessearly



(Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) and U.S. Bancorp (USB.N) said low interest rates were squeezing lending profits, but improving credit quality helped both banks post higher fourth-quarter earnings.


Analysts and investors shrugged off the bottom-line figures and focused on the impact of low interest rates and a reluctance by businesses to tap their credit lines.


"It's a mixed bag looking at these banks," said analyst Shannon Stemm of Edward Jones in St. Louis. "There's improving fee income, but loan demand and interest income still remains weak."
Shares of Wells Fargo, the No. 4 U.S. bank by assets, fell 2 percent to $31.81, while U.S. Bancorp, the fifth-largest U.S. commercial bank, fell 2.9 percent to $26.52.


The banking industry is making more new loans to consumers and businesses.


U.S. Bancorp said average total loans increased 2 percent from a year earlier, and Wells Fargo said total loans grew 0.4 percent from the third quarter.


Analysts and economists have said an uptick in business borrowing is a key cog in the continuing economic recovery. But early fourth-quarter figures suggest businesses -- while taking out new loans -- are hesitant to use them.


U.S. Bancorp said companies were getting credit lines from the bank, but were not actively borrowing on them.


Commercial line utilization -- or the amount of money businesses borrowed under available credit -- fell to 26 percent in fourth quarter, an all-time low and down from 30 percent in the third quarter.


"We're looking forward to the day usage goes up," U.S. Bancorp Chief Executive Officer Richard Davis said on a conference call with analysts.


ASSET QUALITY
Analysts said that despite the slow loan growth, banks' balance sheets were beginning to show signs of health after three years of crisis and recession.


"The banks are building a foundation back to normal earnings," said Guggenheim Securities LLC analyst Marty Mosby. "Right now, asset quality has to get healthy, and that's happening at a much faster rate than I think a lot of us expected."


Wells Fargo's fourth-quarter profit increase stemmed in part from the release of $850 million in loan loss reserves, as the bank said its problem loans continued to shrink. Net charge-offs declined 29 percent from a year earlier.


U.S. Bancorp released $25 million in loan loss reserves during the period, the company's first such move since 2008.



Citigroup (C.N) also took a large reserve release in the fourth quarter, raising concerns among analysts about the quality of its results.


MARGIN PRESSURE
But improving credit did not offset the squeeze in net interest margin, or the money a bank receives in interest from loans against what it pays for deposits.


As the Federal Reserve continues to hold U.S. interest rates at record low levels, banks have little leeway on what they charge for loans and what they pay out for deposits.
Heading into 2011, both U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo said net interest margins would remain stagnant or shrink.


Davis said U.S. Bancorp's net interest margin of 3.83 percent, which declined from 3.91 percent in third quarter, would continue to contract at the same rate in the first three months of 2011.
Wells Fargo's net interest margin also shrank, to 4.16 percent from 4.25 percent in third quarter.
The bank posted a 21 percent increase in fourth-quarter profit to $3.4 billion, or 61 cents a share, meeting analysts' expectations, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.


U.S. Bancorp posted a 61 percent jump in net income. Earnings per share of 49 cents beat the analysts' average estimate by 3 cents.


Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK.O) and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB.O) also reported results on Wednesday.


Hudson City beat expectations, but warned that net interest margins in 2011 may decline from fourth-quarter levels. Hudson shares sank 8.5 percent.


Fifth Third beat analysts' expectations, as delinquencies hit their lowest level in nearly four years. The bank also said it would launch a stock offering and use the proceeds to repay the aid it received under the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.


(Reporting by Joe Rauch and Jonathan Spicer; writing by Ben Berkowitz and Joe Rauch; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn, John Wallace, Phil Berlowitz)

Jobs's health to overshadow quarterly Apple sales

Bilibala: a Corporation won't fall cuz of a person, there are many employees quit from Mircosoft, Mircosoft is still here; there are many employees quit from Google, Google is still growing. What about Apple without Steve Jobs? Apple will not fall, however, will it continue growing with new creative, innovative, customer beloved minds & products which in return with high gross margin & huge amount of profits? That's another story.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70G2Y320110118?feedType=nl&feedName=usbeforethebell

(Reuters) - The health of Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs was set to overshadow quarterly sales numbers on Tuesday from the consumer electronics powerhouse, whose iPhone and iPad excited holiday shoppers.

The world's most valuable technology company said on Monday Jobs was taking a medical leave of absence without specifying a return date or detailing his condition.

Apple shares, up 62 percent in the last 12 months, dropped 4.5 percent in premarket trade on Tuesday. The U.S. market was closed on Monday for a holiday. In European trading, shares rose more than 4 percent, regaining some of the 6 percent lost after the announcement on Monday.
Aside from Jobs's health, the company is entering 2011 on a roll, a cash-generating machine with surging sales across its product lines. Wall Street has forecast Apple's quarterly revenue to rise more than 50 percent to $24.4 billion after a bumper holiday shopping season.

James Cordwell, an analyst at London-based Atlantic Equities, said investors were realizing Apple was more than Jobs. "His absence is unlikely to affect the company's performance over the next two years or so give the strong position they have in the market."

Other analysts, however, said Jobs's influence in the company he co-founded could not be overstated, particularly in guiding product development.

"Steve Jobs is seen by the market to be a major force in Apple's strategic direction," said Richard Windsor, global technology specialist at Nomura. "If his pancreatic cancer has returned, one could be quite worried."

Jobs's leave came nearly two years after he took a six-month break to undergo a liver transplant. He also took time off after pancreatic surgery in 2004.

Apple has not dwelt on Jobs's health, and Jobs himself asked for respect for his privacy in a memo to employees made public on Monday.

In Jobs's absence, it will be up to chief operating officer Tim Cook to decide how much to tell investors about the absent chief executive, and what Apple plans to do with its $50 billion-plus pile of cash and investments.

Less of a showman than Jobs, the 50-year old Alabama native was not expected to make any grand pronouncements. Cook is regarded as a safe pair of hands for the company, having stood in for Jobs twice before.

In Asia, tech shares gained, helped by hopes of a recovery in chip prices and expectations that nimble firms may slow the runaway success of Apple after the news on Jobs.

Rivals' hopes could be misplaced, however. "Apple's roadmap is all set and its iPhone 5 is ready to go, leaving little room for competitors to cut into its share," said Bonnie Chang, an analyst at Yuanta Securities in Taipei.

HUGE HOLIDAY SEASON
Apple's advantages are well-documented: the global spread of the iPhone, expected to sell more than 60 million units this year; the rise of the iPad which single-handedly created the tablet computing market; and continued strong growth from the resurgent Mac line of computers.

Wall Street's benchmarks for Apple's fiscal first quarter, which includes the holiday shopping season, are sales of roughly 15.5 million iPhones, 5.5 million iPads and 4 million Mac computers.
After the close of regular trading hours on Tuesday, Apple was expected to report earnings of $5.40 a share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

According to StarMine's SmartEstimate, which places more weight on recent forecasts by top-rated analysts, Apple should post EPS of $5.47 on revenue of $24.5 billion.

Even so, an out-sized surprise in Apple results has become an article of faith among investors. The company has beaten Wall Street's estimate by an average 29 percent over the past two years, and bested on revenue by 9 percent on average.

"The only surprise in earnings is if there is anything less than glorious news," said Barry Jaruzelski, a partner at consulting firm Booz & Co, last week.

JPMorgan profit rises 47 percent, beating estimates

Bilibala: I haven't read through JP Morgan's financial release yet, but improvement in bank performance to me is kind of expected, that's why the stock price do not have a big jump after the news.

With QE2.0 the issue is not lack of cash, but too many funding with no where to invest: T-bill earning almost zero? lead out to ppl who are not credit worthy? invest in commodities? or what?

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70D2BM20110114?feedType=nl&feedName=usbusinessearly

(Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co reported a 47 percent increase in quarterly earnings, but much of the gain came from dipping into money previously set aside to cover bad loans.
The gradually recovering U.S. economy is allowing JPMorgan to keep less money on hand for loan losses. Profit and revenue was stronger than analysts had expected, and the bank made more loans.

But JPMorgan is still wrestling with the aftermath of the mortgage crisis -- it set aside another $1.5 billion to cover legal settlements mainly linked to U.S. home loan foreclosures.

"Hopefully it's going to be a good year," said JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon on a conference call with journalists, adding that the economy looks better now than it did 12 months ago.

JPMorgan shares rose 10 cents to $44.55 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
Analysts said the results could indicate headwinds for major banks reporting next week. The largest U.S. bank, Bank of America Corp, reports on Friday January 19, while Citigroup, the third largest, reports on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs Group reports on Wednesday.

JPMorgan said profit increased to $4.8 billion, or $1.12 a share, from $3.3 billion, or 74 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts on average expected $1 a share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Fewer bad loans meant the bank could reduce loan-loss reserves for its credit card unit by $2 billion, or 30 cents a share after tax.

"The loan-loss reserves are something that bugs me," said Matt McCormick, portfolio manager and banking analyst at Bahl & Gaynor. "I would love to see a bank hit their numbers without taking from loan-loss reserves for once," he added.

Revenue rose 6 percent to $26.7 billion on a managed basis, which adjusts for an accounting change for off-balance sheet entities. That was higher than the $24.37 billion expected by analysts.

HIGHER INVESTMENT BANKING REVENUE
In JPMorgan's investment bank, revenue rose 26 percent to $6.21 billion. Compensation expense per employee for the full year, a measure of how investment banking bonuses will fare, dropped 2.7 percent to $369,651.

Merger advisory revenue fell 31 percent from the fourth quarter 2009 to $424 million, but Chief Financial Officer Douglas Braunstein said revenue in this area should rise in 2011 because of the large number of deals in the pipeline.

Fixed-income trading revenue, at $2.88 billion, was 5 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009 but down 8 percent from the third quarter of 2010.

Some analysts expect Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to post 10 percent to 15 percent declines in fixed income trading revenue, so JPMorgan's results could mean the business is not as bad as feared.

The bank benefited from a turnaround in its retail banking unit, which reported a profit of $708 million compared with a loss of $399 million in the year-earlier quarter.

Still, JPMorgan had to put aside $1.5 billion of additional litigation reserves related to soured mortgages it sold to investors and homes it may have improperly foreclosed on.

Bank of America Corp last week agreed to pay $2.8 billion to mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to settle claims that it sold bad home loans to them.

Many investors fear that other banks will have to make similar settlement with the two government-backed entities.

(Additional reporting by Maria Aspan in New York and Dominic Lau in London; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn and Steve Orlofsky)

Tipping point in mobile internet users

Bilibala: i can see a tipping point since mid last year as everyone convert their old cell phone to smart phone. I personally convert mine in Jul last year too and i really have a PC everywhere experience. As users increase there data usage, it should benefit the wireless providers, the phone/tablet manufactures and interest search / gaming / advertising corporation.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70A2JS20110111?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

(Reuters) - Mobile broadband subscriptions are on track to surpass 1 billion in 2011 only months after reaching half a billion, Ericsson said on Tuesday, highlighting a key growth driver for the telecom sector.

"During the course of 2010, a significant milestone in terms of mobile broadband subscriptions was reached as their number surpassed the half-a-billion mark globally," Ericsson, the world's biggest mobile network gear maker, said in a statement.

"Ericsson estimates that this number will double before 2011 ends."

Internet use on-the-go has soared in recent years, driven by cheap laptop computers, tablet computers such as Apple Inc's iPad and smartphones such as the iPhone.

Growing data traffic is seen driving revenue for telecoms operators and leading to increased investment in networks, boosting revenues for gear suppliers like Ericsson.

Asia Pacific is expected to account for the greatest number of subscriptions, around 400 million, followed by North America and western Europe with more than 200 million each, Ericsson said.
The group said that in 2008, mobile internet subscribers totaled around 200 million. By 2015, Ericsson believes mobile broadband subscriptions will top 3.8 billion, indicating the pace of growth is picking up.

The trend has already started boosting operators' revenues. Nordic telecoms firms TeliaSonera, Telenor and Tele2 all pointed to rising smartphone and mobile internet use as helping earnings last year.

Network providers like Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks and China's Huawei hope demand for on-line gaming, video streaming and watching TV will push operators to upgrade networks to boost capacity and speed.

(Reporting by Simon Johnson; Editing by David Holmes)

Let's face it

Bilibala: Facebook is a great social network site, thx to it, i found all my primary & high school friends. In terms of an investment, will it be too high to price this company at $50B?

The answer is unknown. The issue rely on whether Facebook can generate enough sales growth & able to increase profit margin from almost zero to say 20%.
During Google's IPO, it was priced at $52B while its revenue is about $3.2B. Price per sales was at 16.5 which is 33% more "attractive" than Facebook, its sales grows 642% from 2004 to 2009 while gross margin up from 20.1% to 35.1%.

If Facebook can do a similar great job, i guess it is worth to invest.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7055A520110106?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

(Reuters) - Remember Webvan? The online grocer, whose initial public offering in March 2000 was among the most hotly anticipated during the dot-com boom, is now viewed as one of the greatest disasters of the era.

Fast forward 11 years and the feeding frenzy around Facebook and its exponentially expanding valuations are conjuring fears of a Bubble 2.0.

Goldman Sachs bankers have offered their private wealth clients less than a week to decide whether they want to hand over $2 million apiece for a sliver of the Web darling du jour: Facebook at a $50 billion valuation.

For one Goldman client, who was expecting a 100-page financial document on Facebook to be hand-delivered on Thursday, hours before the deadline to invest in the company -- the whole thing "felt a bit like 1999."

Thanks to Goldman Sachs' latest cash infusion of about $450 million with a commitment to raise another $1.5 billion, Facebook has become the lightning rod for debate over whether these new Internet hotshots possess the profit-generating muscles to justify Wall Street's unforgiving expectations.

Twitter and Groupon, an online coupons site considered by some as the fastest growing company in Web history, are also mulling plans for IPOs well ahead of Facebook's potential offering at the end of 2012, investment bankers have told Reuters.

LinkedIn is wasting no time. The social network for professionals, with 85 million members, has hired bankers to go public this year.

For Facebook, which generated about $2 billion in revenue in 2010, according to media reports, the $50 billion valuation means investors have awarded it a multiple of 25 times sales, compared with a nine-times multiple for Google, and Amazon.com's 2.5-times multiple.

Facebook generates $4 per user, compared with Google's $24 per user and Yahoo's $8 per user, according to a recent report by JPMorgan.

All that makes Facebook look expensive in the eyes of investors who measure businesses using traditional financial yardsticks, said Ken Sawyer, the managing director of venture capital firm Saints Capital, which owns shares of Facebook.

Investors will need to look past existing financial returns to focus on the company's business-transforming potential.

"It depends on your view of the world," said Sawyer. "If you believe that the ability to leverage this social network fabric will change the way companies acquire customers, then the valuation looks cheap."

Just as Google's search advertisements revolutionized the way businesses reach customers, Facebook's audience of a half-a-billion members has allowed companies like social gaming service Zynga and online dating service Zoosk to sign-up tens of millions of customers of their own in record time, Sawyer said.

As Facebook devises more ways to make money from that capability, such as by taking a cut of transactions made by other companies on its platform, the opportunity could be substantial, he said.

GLOBAL PHENOMENON
Facebook, born as a Harvard dorm-room project to help students to stay connected, has evolved into a global phenomenon, whose users include nearly as many people over 45 years of age as it does people under 24 years old.

In 2010, Facebook displaced Google as the most visited website in the United States, and nearly one out of every four graphical display ads viewed in the United States in the third quarter was on Facebook's website, according to analytics firm comScore.

Other young social networking businesses are experiencing similar growth.

Twitter, the microblogging service that has become an indispensable tool for celebrities and politicians to connect with fans, now counts more than 175 million users and fetched a $3.7 billion valuation in a recent round of venture capital funding.

Online coupon service Groupon recently announced plans to raise up to $950 million, implying a valuation that one research firm estimated could be as high $7.8 billion.

Premium valuations for top-tier players like Facebook and Groupon are usually worth it, wrote Google "developer advocate" Don Dodge in a widely read blog post on Tuesday. The potential for a bubble comes when investors bid up prices for third-tier companies, whose business prospects aren't as solid, he wrote.

Unlike in the late 1990s, shares of today's Web sensations are privately held and not available to the general public. But a growing secondary market has developed in which investors meeting certain criteria, such as minimum net worth, can buy and sell shares.

Goldman Sachs plans to raise up to $1.5 billion to invest in Facebook through a special purpose investment vehicle marketed to its private wealth management customers.

Such trading in companies that are not required to provide investors with the same kind of detailed financial reports and updates as public companies is raising alarms.

"It feels a little irrationally exuberant with some of these transactions, some of these values, particularly given the level of disclosure," said Robert Ackerman, the founder of early-stage venture capital firm Allegis Capital.

"Maybe with Facebook that's well placed," he said, "but what about all the other companies that are going to ride on Facebook's coat-tails."

The laws of gravity are also different in the private markets in which the new generation of Web superstars trade.

Because there's no way to short shares of private companies, the shares are subject to upward pressure but not downward pressure, noted BGC Financial analyst Colin Gillis.
"There's no counterbalance," he said.

(Additional reporting by Matthew Goldstein in New York; Editing by Kenneth Li and Steve Orlofsky)

RIM announces 4G PlayBook tablet

Bilibala: Apple 1st, then Google & Samsung was in, follow by RIM, Dell & Toshiba. I think the market is big enough to have healthy competition & everyone can make some profit out of it.

As a consumer, I can have a laptop & a tablet, there is no conflict between the two because it fit for 2 different purposes - laptop serves @ at home or at office, tablet serves on the way.



http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7050VJ20110106?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

Corporate interest in Research in Motion's new tablet was "massive," the company said, as it announced plans to launch a 4G version of the device this summer with Sprint Nextel.
RIM for the first time on Wednesday provided a hands-on demonstration of the PlayBook, a seven-inch touchscreen tablet that will go head-to-head with Apple's iPad when the Wi-Fi-only version ships, likely in March.

"In large companies, they're talking deployment in the tens of thousands, right off the bat," said Jeff McDowell, senior vice president of enterprise and platform marketing for RIM.
He said corporations are viewing the PlayBook as a tool as essential to employees as a phone or a PC. "It's not something that they want to trickle in."

RIM's tablet is perhaps the most anticipated iPad rival in a sea of new competitors bent on challenging Apple and stealing a piece of a fast-growing market expected to top 50 million units next year.

McDowell said RIM decided to go with Sprint for its first high-speed wireless compatible tablet because it has most "ubiquitous 4G network at this point."

The choice of No. 3 U.S. mobile service Sprint as RIM's first carrier was an interesting one given that Sprint uses a high-speed wireless technology that is incompatible with networks being built by the top two U.S. mobile operators.

The PlayBook -- which sports a fast dual-core processor -- performed smoothly as it went through its paces, loading websites and applications quickly and playing Flash-based videos on the Internet with ease.

The PlayBook weighs less than one pound (400 grams) and is less than 10 millimeters thick, with a thin rubber coating.

Its software allows for multi-tasking and features a rotating "carousel" that shows all the programs that the device is running. A simple finger swipe up brings up the home screen, while a swipe out closes programs.

There has been plenty of debate in recent weeks about the PlayBook's battery life, a key point of competition in the tablet market. The 10-inch iPad boasts more than 10 hours of battery life.
McDowell said the PlayBook's battery will last as long or longer than other 7-inch tablets, although he declined to be more specific.

He said concerns about Flash programs draining battery life were "absurd generalizations." Apple has derided Flash as a battery hogging technology, and the iPad does not support the widely-used multimedia software.

TABLET WARS BEGIN
RIM is betting that its reputation for security and reliability will make the PlayBook a favorite in corporate IT departments.

But Apple CEO Steve Jobs has singled out the PlayBook for criticism, saying that seven-inch tablets will be "dead on arrival" when they hit the market.

McDowell said the PlayBook will launch with a library featuring "thousands" of apps available for download. When asked, he said RIM is looking at different screen sizes for the PlayBook, but declined to comment further.

The company has previously said it would sell the PlayBook for "under $500" but has not yet provided a specific price tag. The iPad starts at $499.

Analysts, on average, forecast RIM will sell fewer than 4 million PlayBooks in the 12 months after its launch.

Apple has sold more than 7 million iPads since launching the device in April and analysts predict that the company sold as many as 6 million in the December quarter.

RIM has plenty riding on the PlayBook. Once a darling of Wall Street, the company is having a hard time convincing investors that it is well-positioned to combat Apple and Google in the booming market for smartphones and tablets.

Shares in RIM spiked sharply in heavy volume in the last hour of Nasdaq trade to end the session 4.8 percent higher at $61.92. RIM's Toronto Stock Exchange-listed shares closed 4.4 percent higher at C$61.70.

(Editing by Anshuman Daga and Lincoln Feast)

Facebook tops Google as most visited site in U.S.

Bilibala: it is interesting to know who the top ranking of the most visited website in USA (from Jan to Nov 2010).

1. Google + related 9.9%
2. Facebook 8.9%
3. Yahoo + related 8.1%

It is more interesting to know how much revenues & profit that those companies generated by those visit (9M 2010):

1. Google $20.8B & $6.0B
2. Yahoo $4.8B & $0.6B
3. Facebook $1.5B & $0.0B (esitmated)

There is a huge different on whether you are an internet user or an investor. Investor investes in business that can generate high margin of profit, not popularity.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BT40320101230?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

(Reuters) - Facebook surpassed Google for the first time as the most visited website in the United States for most of 2010.

The social network site edged out Google.com with 8.9 percent of all U.S. visits between January and November 2010, while Google.com ranked second with about 7.2 percent of all visits, according to online measurement service Experian Hitwise.

Facebook's move to the top spot shows just how quickly the site has grown in popularity. Within the span of six years, Facebook has become the world's largest Web social network with roughly half a billion users worldwide.

Google.com dominated the top spot as the most visited website in the United States in 2009 and 2008. News Corp's MySpace was the No. 1 visited website in 2007. It is ranked No. 7.
However, when all of Google's properties are considered -- such as YouTube and email, for instance -- Google still reigns as the most visited site at 9.9 percent between January and November 2010. Facebook follows at 8.9 percent. Yahoo and all of its properties ranked third at 8.1 percent.

(Reporting by Jennifer Saba. Editing by Robert MacMillan)

Jobless claim down below 400,000

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BM24V20101230?feedType=nl&feedName=ustopnewsearly

(Reuters) - New claims for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected last week to their lowest level in more than two years, suggesting the labor market recovery was gaining strength.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the lowest reading since early July 2008, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was well below economists' expectations for 415,000.

The prior week's claims figure was revised modestly up to 422,000 from the previously reported 420,000. A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level data and described the report as clean.

"This adds to the idea that the jobs picture is improving ... this is another feather in the cap of the idea of recovery," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital in New York.
U.S. Treasury debt prices, already soft before the data, lost more ground, while the dollar pared losses against the yen. S&P stock index futures trimmed losses.

The four-week average of new jobless claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, fell 12,500 to 414,000, the lowest level since the week ending July 26, 2008.
The steady decline in claims in recent weeks likely indicates the pace of job creation picked up this month, after the Labor Department's non-farm payrolls report showed employers added a paltry 39,000 jobs in November.

The December employment data is due on January 7, and a preliminary Reuters survey shows economists expect non-farm payrolls increased 126,000 this month, but still not enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate, which is expected to have edged down to 9.7 percent from 9.8 percent in November.

The claims data also showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid rose 57,000 to 4.13 million in the week ended December 18, above market expectations for 4.10 million. The prior week's figure was revised slightly up to 4.07 million.

The so-called continuing claims data covered the survey week for the December employment report's household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived.

The jobless rate is likely to remain elevated as the improving labor market and general economic conditions lure discouraged job seekers back into the labor force.

The number of people on emergency unemployment benefits fell 77,741 to 3.71 million in the week ended December 11, the latest week for which data is available.

A total of 8.87 million people were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs.

Bilibala: the news is pretty ecouraging, let's see whether such decrease can form a decreasing trend, or it is just due to extra part time during Christmas consuming season.

Top holding in USA 12/23/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY => HOLD
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• American Express share price down recently from US$46.5 to US$41.0 (climb back a bit) on the worry USA government will be more restricted in credit card service charges. Last week, VISA & Master Card share price got the hit as the regulator reform the debit card service charges.
• General Electric’s (I will use GE in below, it is how its own press release name themselves though) share price did not recover as fast as the big 4 banks, nor the giant industrial corp such as Caterpillar, the main reason is because of GE Capital – the finance segment @ GE.
  1. GE is an industrial / technology corp which manufacture energy / power / health equipments & devices
  2. With its strong financial position, they are able to borrow short term loan cheap enough and lent it through GE Capital to their customers in long term (just like u buy a car through finance & then Honda/Nissan/Mini Copper lend $$ to u)
  3. After the financial crisis, GE gets harder to borrow cheaper, therefore, its GE Capital interest spread got narrow down at the same time rise a potential cash flow issues (cuz they borrow in short term but lent it for long term)
  4. Investors has an ongoing cash concern on GE, that’s why its share price only up about 130% from bottom compare to say Wells Fargo which up 250%.

Top holding in USA 12/10/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• Government decided to extend the tax cut policy for another 2 years, positive impact to retail & credit market
• Initial jobless claim fall to 421k this week, looks like the trend is continue to fall from 450k to 425k, positive sign on job market.
• BOD of General Electric increase dividends by 17% to 14 cents per shares per qtr, a positive sign on industrial sector capital loan market, no change to NPV.

Top holding in USA 12/02/10

USA
1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• Google’s price fall $30 this week because Europe is investigating whether its searching engine has anti-trust issue. Currently, with 80% market share in Europe, Google for sure dominant the online search market. It is fine if it is because of customers loyalty, it will be charged if it is because Google give favor to sponsor link and set barriers to other website / competitors. In the past, Microsoft had lawsuit with the Europe Commission for years and end up settled the $2.0B fine. Intel also being charged $1.4B in 2009 by EU. To me, those lawsuit can be settled by fine while Google’s dominate position will not change.
• Did anyone of u watch Disney’s Tangled? It is a fun to watch movie, the characters are more human (instead of black & white) with great music & storyline.
• November interest rate move up, I think is time to invest more on insurance company and reduce investment on government & corporate bonds

Top holding in USA 11/22/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

Irish financial crisis: Investors over-react the impact: 1) Irish’s fund shortage is due to broken of real estate bubble & creating mortgage bad debt in many Irish banks. So Irish government inject capital to banks and ran out of $$ in short term; 2) It is not big crisis because:

• EU has $750B emerging fund to support any member country in need;
• The shortage is not due to long term structural credit issues;
• The debt renewal amount is lots smaller than Greek, while Irish’s economy is better than Greek

I think it will settle this week.