Bilibala Finance’s 5 Top Holding by Region:
(with net present value in 1 year)
American
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 => US$754.6 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD (pending to update)
7. Suncor Energy (SU) CA$50.0 BUY (pending to update)
· Mar 11 major transactions: switch to Suncor Energy (SU) CA$41.34; add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0; add American Express (AXP) US$43.2
· Why Bilibala buy Suncor? Bilibala sold Petro Canada in 2008 at $37.0 when it announced it will merge with Suncor. At that time Suncor’s debt to equity ratio was high at 54%. Given the uncertainty of whether the “marriage” will be a success or disaster, I sold it and bought Imperial Oil, lower debt, better management & technology support by Exxon Mobil (XOM), by given up the potential growth opportunity of what Suncor & Petro Canada have. In 2 years, I can see the huge improvement in Suncor by lowering its debt to equity ratio to 34% with a promise by management they will lower it further before 30% in 2011. While Imperial Oil has already ran above my expectation & fulfill its mission, I will now switch to Suncor. The reason why Suncor fall short while oil price up is cuz it has investment in Libya and have higher uncertainty of potential losses & damage. I think the political issue can go on for a long period, but who ever gain power will not destroy the energy business
· Why Bilibala add Berkshire Hathaway? I’ve reviewed the whole 2010 annual report. Looks great as usual!! Add back cuz I found out Todd Comb (the one I don’t like or do not impress) only replace Liu in GEICO who manage a portfolio of $3-4B. Looking forward, its investment income growth may slow down, given the fact General Electric & Goldman Sech will most likely buy back the preferred shares on a 10% redemption fees this year. By that time, Berkshires Hathaway will have lower before tax dividend/interest income by $0.8B, which is a lot of $$.
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
3.14.2011
Top holding Asia/Europe 03/11/10
Bilibala Finance’s 5 Top Holding by Region:
(with net present value in 1 year)
Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
6. HSBC Holding (0005/HBC) US$67.3 BUY (pending to update)
7. IFSE A50 China Fund (2823) HK$22.4 STRONG BUY
· Mar 11 major transactions: n/a
· Japan huge magnitude 8.9 earthquake & 33 feet high Tsunami. Boats, cars and trucks were tossed around like toys in the water after a small tsunami hit the town.
· Pray that the government can save as many survivors as possible promptly.
· Geopolitical risk & concerns in Middle East and North Africa are still heating up, can u imagine few strong, powerful governor (for years) fell down at the same time within just 2-3 months?
· No one can tell what will happen next and who will rule those countries. Some think about the movie 2012 or Jesus’ 2nd coming…..
· to me, I think of one scripture: “And in the days of those kings, the God of heaven will put up a kingdom which will never come to destruction, and its power will never be given into the hands of another people, and all these kingdoms will be broken and overcome by it, but it will keep its place for ever.” (Daniel 2:44)
· All the kings are full of power, and all those can gone in a second, who is the real ruler in history?
· If our LORD is the true ruler in all time, should we set aside a time with Him, do a prior to 2010 performance review and set our post 2011 objectives for Him??
· If our LORD is the true ruler in all time, who should we afraid of? Our boss? The government? Recession?
· Lol, I know it is easy to say than do….
· Lots of financial release will be on late March or early April, I will comment more by that time.
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
(with net present value in 1 year)
Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
6. HSBC Holding (0005/HBC) US$67.3 BUY (pending to update)
7. IFSE A50 China Fund (2823) HK$22.4 STRONG BUY
· Mar 11 major transactions: n/a
· Japan huge magnitude 8.9 earthquake & 33 feet high Tsunami. Boats, cars and trucks were tossed around like toys in the water after a small tsunami hit the town.
· Pray that the government can save as many survivors as possible promptly.
· Geopolitical risk & concerns in Middle East and North Africa are still heating up, can u imagine few strong, powerful governor (for years) fell down at the same time within just 2-3 months?
· No one can tell what will happen next and who will rule those countries. Some think about the movie 2012 or Jesus’ 2nd coming…..
· to me, I think of one scripture: “And in the days of those kings, the God of heaven will put up a kingdom which will never come to destruction, and its power will never be given into the hands of another people, and all these kingdoms will be broken and overcome by it, but it will keep its place for ever.” (Daniel 2:44)
· All the kings are full of power, and all those can gone in a second, who is the real ruler in history?
· If our LORD is the true ruler in all time, should we set aside a time with Him, do a prior to 2010 performance review and set our post 2011 objectives for Him??
· If our LORD is the true ruler in all time, who should we afraid of? Our boss? The government? Recession?
· Lol, I know it is easy to say than do….
· Lots of financial release will be on late March or early April, I will comment more by that time.
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
3.07.2011
Bilibala Finance performance Feb 11
Return % Comparison as of 03/04/11:
(2010 YTD, vs peak, 6 yr average)
· Bilibala up 2.8%, 3.6%, 21.5%
· USA up 5.0%, (16.2%), 1.4%
· Canada up 6.0%, (6.0%), 7.2%
· HKG up 1.6%, (26.8%), 8.3%
· China down 4.8%, (52.0%), 14.4%
(2010 YTD, vs peak, 6 yr average)
· Bilibala up 2.8%, 3.6%, 21.5%
· USA up 5.0%, (16.2%), 1.4%
· Canada up 6.0%, (6.0%), 7.2%
· HKG up 1.6%, (26.8%), 8.3%
· China down 4.8%, (52.0%), 14.4%
Top Holding - US/Canada
1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.4 STRONG BUY
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 => US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 => US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$83.8 => CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
7. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$47.8 HOLD
· Mar 11 major transactions: add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0; add American Express (AXP) US$43.2
· TD Bank report great results!! Compare to 1q10:
· 1q11 adjusted EPS up 8% to CA$1.74; net interest income up 11%, fee income up 5%, loan provision down by 20%, book value down up slightly by 3%
· 1q earnings usually the highest among all quarters (cuz more investment & underwriting activities) so I don’t think this result will repeat in 2q-4q
· As interest rate may rise in 2H2011, it may hurt TD’s interest margin
· Regulatory change on mortgage (from 35 year to 30 year start from Apr 11) may hurt real estate market’s activities, but should have no impact on TD’s interest income
· Even the interest rate may rise & higher gas price offset with the lower unemployment rate & slow economy pick up, I think loan provision will stay flat for 2011 compare to 2010
· 2011 adjusted EPS expectation is CA$6.46
· Great reminder from Warren Buffett in 2010 annual report: http://bilibala-life.blogspot.com/
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
2. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
3. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 => US$43.8 STRONG BUY
4. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 => US$23.5 HOLD
5. TD Bank (TD) CA$83.8 => CA$92.3 HOLD
6. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
7. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$47.8 HOLD
· Mar 11 major transactions: add Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) US $85.0; add American Express (AXP) US$43.2
· TD Bank report great results!! Compare to 1q10:
· 1q11 adjusted EPS up 8% to CA$1.74; net interest income up 11%, fee income up 5%, loan provision down by 20%, book value down up slightly by 3%
· 1q earnings usually the highest among all quarters (cuz more investment & underwriting activities) so I don’t think this result will repeat in 2q-4q
· As interest rate may rise in 2H2011, it may hurt TD’s interest margin
· Regulatory change on mortgage (from 35 year to 30 year start from Apr 11) may hurt real estate market’s activities, but should have no impact on TD’s interest income
· Even the interest rate may rise & higher gas price offset with the lower unemployment rate & slow economy pick up, I think loan provision will stay flat for 2011 compare to 2010
· 2011 adjusted EPS expectation is CA$6.46
· Great reminder from Warren Buffett in 2010 annual report: http://bilibala-life.blogspot.com/
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
Top holding - Asia/Europe
Bilibala Finance’s 5 Top Holding by Region:
(with net present value @ 2010)
Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
6. HSBC Holding (0005/HBC) US$67.3 BUY
7. IFSE A50 China Fund (2823) HK$22.4 STRONG BUY
· Mar 11 major transactions: n/a
· Are you qualify to get $6k from HKG government? It has lots of arguments on:
· How should government deal with the HK$2.3T reserve?
· Whether $6k cash out is helpful to resolve society issue or not?
· Whether government should change its fiscal plan that easily?
· I voted for $6k cash to everyone with HK ID ga, cuz I think that’s the fairest and effective way to re-distribute from “too rich” government
· It is worth to discuss these topics before you plan on how to spend it.
· I am planning to buy MTR because MTR 2010 results looks great.
· 2010 EPS up 24% to HK$2.1, revenue (HKG fare & Others) up thanks to launch of MTR in Australia & Sweden in 2H2010 (even though they can’t make any $ at this stage)
· Growth opportunities are all over the world with continue enjoyment of the transportation monopoly position
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
(with net present value @ 2010)
Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
6. HSBC Holding (0005/HBC) US$67.3 BUY
7. IFSE A50 China Fund (2823) HK$22.4 STRONG BUY
· Mar 11 major transactions: n/a
· Are you qualify to get $6k from HKG government? It has lots of arguments on:
· How should government deal with the HK$2.3T reserve?
· Whether $6k cash out is helpful to resolve society issue or not?
· Whether government should change its fiscal plan that easily?
· I voted for $6k cash to everyone with HK ID ga, cuz I think that’s the fairest and effective way to re-distribute from “too rich” government
· It is worth to discuss these topics before you plan on how to spend it.
· I am planning to buy MTR because MTR 2010 results looks great.
· 2010 EPS up 24% to HK$2.1, revenue (HKG fare & Others) up thanks to launch of MTR in Australia & Sweden in 2H2010 (even though they can’t make any $ at this stage)
· Growth opportunities are all over the world with continue enjoyment of the transportation monopoly position
# Bilibala personally uses fair value @ 2016 to do all investment, however, I think for most small investors, net present value @ 2011 (fair value multiply by discount factor), would be more relevant.
· STRONG BUY with NPV over MV above 30%
· BUY btw 15% to 30%
· HOLD btw (15%) to 15%
· RE-RE-RECONSIDER below (15%)
3.02.2011
Top holding in Asia/Europe
Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
· Hong Kong & China stock market continue to get pressure thanks to China government’s macroeconomic alignment. And as the Middle East Revolution heat up, cash flow was being pulled out from Asian market back to America, that’s why in short term, America stock market experience a higher than expected gains while Asian market looks flat.
· Investment is an art to draw a meaningful picture with the long term value & short term price. If a given new event do not impact long term value but somehow causing a drop in short term price, one should not have to worry.
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 STRONG BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$43.3 STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$9.0 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.6 HOLD
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$6.7 STRONG BUY
· Hong Kong & China stock market continue to get pressure thanks to China government’s macroeconomic alignment. And as the Middle East Revolution heat up, cash flow was being pulled out from Asian market back to America, that’s why in short term, America stock market experience a higher than expected gains while Asian market looks flat.
· Investment is an art to draw a meaningful picture with the long term value & short term price. If a given new event do not impact long term value but somehow causing a drop in short term price, one should not have to worry.
Investment 201 - oil price
· Why oil price up will not directly trigger the oil companies share price go up?
· Because oil company net present value is calculated based on the 5 years average future oil price (2012-2017) multiple by total oil reserve of the company minus production cost of each oil field and then add the refinery margin multiple # of bbl for refinery.
· As you can see, current oil price, if not irrelevant, it has little affect on oil company valuation unless such price will have a duration impact in long term.
· Because oil company net present value is calculated based on the 5 years average future oil price (2012-2017) multiple by total oil reserve of the company minus production cost of each oil field and then add the refinery margin multiple # of bbl for refinery.
· As you can see, current oil price, if not irrelevant, it has little affect on oil company valuation unless such price will have a duration impact in long term.
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