Home-Price Declines in 20 U.S. Cities Eased in April (Update2)
Share Email Print A A A
By Bob Willis
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April at a slower pace than forecast, a sign the plunge in real-estate values is abating.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index decreased 18.1 percent from a year earlier following an 18.7 percent drop in March. The measure declined 19 percent in January, the most since the data began in 2001.
Price declines are likely to keep moderating as demand steadies and distressed properties account for a smaller share of transactions. Still, the highest jobless rate in 25 years is contributing to record foreclosures, which are likely to keep depressing values for months to come even as home sales steady.
“It is looking a little bit better,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The largest declines are probably past. When prices stop falling the erosion in household wealth will come to an end.”
Economists forecast the index would drop 18.6 percent, according to the estimates of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Estimates ranged from drops of 17.7 percent to 19.4 percent.
Stock futures extended gains following the report. The contract on the S&P 500 index was up 0.2 percent at 9:19 a.m. in New York.
The home-price index figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to-month.
Smaller Decline
The measure was down 0.6 percent in April from the prior month, the best performance since June 2008. Eight of the 20 cities showed an increase in prices from March, led by a 1.7 percent gain in Dallas.
“While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun, it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions,” David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said in a statement.
Over the 12-month period ended in April, declines were most pronounced in Phoenix, which showed a 35 percent drop, Las Vegas followed with a 32 percent decrease, and San Francisco with a 28 percent fall.
Foreclosure filings, including default and auction notices as well as property seizures, climbed 18 percent in May from a year earlier, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc. The number topped 300,000 for the third consecutive month, with an estimated one in every 398 homes in some stage of foreclosure.
Sales Steady
The drop in prices caused by the seizures is helping stabilize home sales. Home resales climbed 2.4 percent in May to an annual pace of 4.77 million as the median sales prices slumped 17 percent, the third-largest decrease on record, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.
About 73 percent of all existing houses and condos sold in the Las Vegas-Paradise area were foreclosures last month, up from 56 percent a year earlier, according to figures from San Diego-based MDA DataQuick. Such sales accounted for 51 percent of all existing-home transactions in California, up from 40 percent a year ago, the research company said last week.
Still, distressed sales are abating nationally. The share of homes sold in foreclosure-related transactions was about 33 percent last month, down from the 40 percent to 50 percent seen earlier in the year, the agents’ group said last week.
Loss of Wealth
Declines in home values and stock prices destroyed a record $13.9 trillion in household wealth since late 2007, according to figures from the Federal Reserve.
The need to repair the damage will cause consumers to remain frugal, signaling the biggest part of the economy will be slow to recover. The savings rate climbed to a 15-year high of 6.9 percent last month, after reaching zero as recently as April of last year.
While the rise in foreclosures is likely to keep hurting prices, some companies are seeing signs demand is stabilizing.
Lennar Corp., the third-largest U.S. homebuilder, said last week that home deliveries and new orders rose 47 percent and 67 percent, respectively, in the second quarter from the previous three months. Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said the housing market “experienced an uptick in sales” in the quarter while not yet recovering from the slump.
“While we are sensing pent-up demand in the market, rising unemployment, increased foreclosures and tighter credit standards continue to present challenges for the industry,” Miller said in a June 25 statement. “This combined with a recent spike in mortgage rates has made it difficult to predict when the market will ultimately turn the corner.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 30, 2009 09:20 EDT
Bilibala's comments:
Inline with my expectation, price still seeking for bottom while the sales is starting to rebound.
6.30.2009
US consumer confidence fell in June
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell in June after two straight months of gains.
The Conference Board, an industry group, said on Tuesday its index of consumer attitudes dropped to 49.3 from 54.8 in May. The Present Situation Index slid to 24.8 from 29.7.
Americans saying jobs are "hard to get" increased to 44.8 percent from 43.9 percent the previous month, while those saying jobs are "plentiful" slid to 4.5 percent from May's 5.8 percent.
"The decline in the Present Situation index, caused by a less favorable assessment of business conditions and employment, continues to imply that economic conditions, while not as weak as earlier, are nonetheless weak," said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by James Dalgleish)
Bilibala's comments:
To me, consumer confidence index is just a survey on 5000 US household, good for reference, but can't take it too serious if it go up or down only few points.
The Conference Board, an industry group, said on Tuesday its index of consumer attitudes dropped to 49.3 from 54.8 in May. The Present Situation Index slid to 24.8 from 29.7.
Americans saying jobs are "hard to get" increased to 44.8 percent from 43.9 percent the previous month, while those saying jobs are "plentiful" slid to 4.5 percent from May's 5.8 percent.
"The decline in the Present Situation index, caused by a less favorable assessment of business conditions and employment, continues to imply that economic conditions, while not as weak as earlier, are nonetheless weak," said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by James Dalgleish)
Bilibala's comments:
To me, consumer confidence index is just a survey on 5000 US household, good for reference, but can't take it too serious if it go up or down only few points.
Canada Apr 09 GDP
THE CANADIAN PRESS
OTTAWA–New output numbers released Tuesday show the economy is still contracting but the recession may be abating.
Statistics Canada reports real gross domestic product fell in April by 0.1 per cent after declines of in February and March.
Statistics Canada reports declines in manufacturing, the energy sector and retail trade were the main contributors to the April drop. However, there were increases in the activities of real estate agents and brokers and wholesale trade.
GDP of the manufacturing, energy, retail and construction industries fell, though the finance and insurance sector was essentially unchanged.
Manufacturing production fell 1 per cent in April on weak foreign demand, with 15 of the 21 major groups contracting. Particularly affected were primary metal, petroleum and coal, food, paper and wood products makers.
However, motor vehicle production and computer and electronic product manufacturing were both up.
The energy sector fell 0.5 per cent in April on significant declines in natural gas extraction, refining, coal mining and pipeline transportation.
Storage levels of natural gas in Canada and the United States remained high, while the price of natural gas declined to a level below those recorded at the end of 2007.
Support activities for oil and gas extraction rebounded significantly in April, but the industry continued operating at a low level. However, electricity generation and natural gas distribution were both up in the month.
Retail trade fell 0.6 per cent in April due to less volume at food and beverage stores and new and used car dealers. Wholesaling activities, however, increased 0.5 per cent in April, with advances in the wholesaling of grains, food, beverage and tobacco products, and personal and household goods.
Increases in non-residential building construction and engineering and repair work were not enough to offset a drop in residential building construction as construction activity slipped 0.1 per cent in April.
In the finance and insurance sector, gains in mutual fund sales were partially offset by declines in trading volume on the stock exchanges.
The GDP data is one of the closest watched of all economic indicators, because it is the broadest measure of how the economy is doing, combining goods production, services, jobs and consumer purchasing activity.
In April, the indicators were mixed, with retail sales taking an unexpected plunge, but the labour market adding 37,000 self-employment jobs and manufacturing posting a slight gain.
The jobs gain might have been enough to push GDP into positive territory, but payroll employment fell 0.4 per cent during the month, indicating contributions from the self-employment category were weak.
Since October, Canada has shed 363,000 jobs, a 2.1 per cent loss, and that carnage is expected to continue for the rest of the year, possibly extending well into 2010.
Economists, however, believe the economy is beginning to show signs of life. Almost all indicators suggest that the free-fall that occurred in the fourth quarter of last year and particularly in the first three month of this year - when GDP fell at a 5.4 per cent annual pace - has slowed to a crawl.
Bilibala's comments:
in progress
OTTAWA–New output numbers released Tuesday show the economy is still contracting but the recession may be abating.
Statistics Canada reports real gross domestic product fell in April by 0.1 per cent after declines of in February and March.
Statistics Canada reports declines in manufacturing, the energy sector and retail trade were the main contributors to the April drop. However, there were increases in the activities of real estate agents and brokers and wholesale trade.
GDP of the manufacturing, energy, retail and construction industries fell, though the finance and insurance sector was essentially unchanged.
Manufacturing production fell 1 per cent in April on weak foreign demand, with 15 of the 21 major groups contracting. Particularly affected were primary metal, petroleum and coal, food, paper and wood products makers.
However, motor vehicle production and computer and electronic product manufacturing were both up.
The energy sector fell 0.5 per cent in April on significant declines in natural gas extraction, refining, coal mining and pipeline transportation.
Storage levels of natural gas in Canada and the United States remained high, while the price of natural gas declined to a level below those recorded at the end of 2007.
Support activities for oil and gas extraction rebounded significantly in April, but the industry continued operating at a low level. However, electricity generation and natural gas distribution were both up in the month.
Retail trade fell 0.6 per cent in April due to less volume at food and beverage stores and new and used car dealers. Wholesaling activities, however, increased 0.5 per cent in April, with advances in the wholesaling of grains, food, beverage and tobacco products, and personal and household goods.
Increases in non-residential building construction and engineering and repair work were not enough to offset a drop in residential building construction as construction activity slipped 0.1 per cent in April.
In the finance and insurance sector, gains in mutual fund sales were partially offset by declines in trading volume on the stock exchanges.
The GDP data is one of the closest watched of all economic indicators, because it is the broadest measure of how the economy is doing, combining goods production, services, jobs and consumer purchasing activity.
In April, the indicators were mixed, with retail sales taking an unexpected plunge, but the labour market adding 37,000 self-employment jobs and manufacturing posting a slight gain.
The jobs gain might have been enough to push GDP into positive territory, but payroll employment fell 0.4 per cent during the month, indicating contributions from the self-employment category were weak.
Since October, Canada has shed 363,000 jobs, a 2.1 per cent loss, and that carnage is expected to continue for the rest of the year, possibly extending well into 2010.
Economists, however, believe the economy is beginning to show signs of life. Almost all indicators suggest that the free-fall that occurred in the fourth quarter of last year and particularly in the first three month of this year - when GDP fell at a 5.4 per cent annual pace - has slowed to a crawl.
Bilibala's comments:
in progress
6.29.2009
6.28.2009
6.26.2009
News sites slow to crawl
"Beginning at 5:30 p.m. ET, the average speed for downloading news sites doubled from less than four seconds to almost nine seconds," said Shawn White, Keynote's director of external operations. "During the same period, the average availability of sites on the index dropped from almost 100 per cent to 86 per cent. The index returned to normal by 9:15 p.m. ET."
From 6 until 8 p.m. ET, ABC, CBS, the Los Angeles Times, AOL (which owns TMZ) and CNN Money were among the sites that were mostly unavailable, Keynote said in a release.
Internet tracking firm Akamai reported that North America's most popular news sites saw traffic spike 20 per cent above average during the height of the story just after 6 p.m., with over four million visitors per minute, about half the traffic of last Nov. 4, the day of Barack Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election.
As people online tried to get the latest news, social networks saw a spike in traffic, much of it Michael Jackson-related. Users flooded Facebook, and a group on the social networking site called Michael Jackson RIP was created Thursday night and has now attracted nearly 65,000 members.
Biz Stone, co-founder of the online social messaging service Twitter, told the Los Angeles Times that the frequency of Twitter posts, or Tweets, doubled after the first reports of Jackson's death surfaced.
Ethan Zuckerman, a fellow at the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University, was tracking Jackson-related content on Twitter and posted that Jackson had far surpassed the Iran election and swine flu as a popular topic.
"My Twitter search script sees roughly 15 per cent of all posts on Twitter mentioning Michael Jackson," he reported on Twitter on Thursday. "Never saw Iran or swine flu reach over five per cent."
Those numbers have since dropped to about three per cent of all Twitter traffic as of Friday, he said in a later post.
Bilibala's comments
That means internet technology still has room for improvement and whenever there's room, there's profit growth.
From 6 until 8 p.m. ET, ABC, CBS, the Los Angeles Times, AOL (which owns TMZ) and CNN Money were among the sites that were mostly unavailable, Keynote said in a release.
Internet tracking firm Akamai reported that North America's most popular news sites saw traffic spike 20 per cent above average during the height of the story just after 6 p.m., with over four million visitors per minute, about half the traffic of last Nov. 4, the day of Barack Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election.
As people online tried to get the latest news, social networks saw a spike in traffic, much of it Michael Jackson-related. Users flooded Facebook, and a group on the social networking site called Michael Jackson RIP was created Thursday night and has now attracted nearly 65,000 members.
Biz Stone, co-founder of the online social messaging service Twitter, told the Los Angeles Times that the frequency of Twitter posts, or Tweets, doubled after the first reports of Jackson's death surfaced.
Ethan Zuckerman, a fellow at the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University, was tracking Jackson-related content on Twitter and posted that Jackson had far surpassed the Iran election and swine flu as a popular topic.
"My Twitter search script sees roughly 15 per cent of all posts on Twitter mentioning Michael Jackson," he reported on Twitter on Thursday. "Never saw Iran or swine flu reach over five per cent."
Those numbers have since dropped to about three per cent of all Twitter traffic as of Friday, he said in a later post.
Bilibala's comments
That means internet technology still has room for improvement and whenever there's room, there's profit growth.
Manulife Financial Corp Under Investigation
By Motley Fool
While suffering through a large market decline, the last thing you want to see is a letter from the government. It is never good news. Either you are being drafted, they want more money from you or you are under investigation. In the case of Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC), Canada’s largest insurance company, it was the latter.
On Friday June 19th after the market closed, it was reported that MFC received an enforcement notice from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) relating to its disclosure before March 2009 of risks related to its variable annuity guarantee and segregated funds business. The preliminary conclusion of OSC staff is that the Company failed to meet its continuous disclosure obligations related to its exposure to market price risk in its segregated funds and variable annuity guaranteed products. MFC will have the opportunity to respond to the notice before OSC staff makes a final decision about proceeding. The Company believes that its disclosure satisfied applicable disclosure requirements.
Like most insurance companies, MFC has struggled as a result of the declining equity markets. The Company has reported huge losses in excess of one billion Canadian dollars over the last two quarters. Much of which can be attributed to increasing reserves to cover long-term segregated fund and annuity guarantees. Segregated funds are popular investments similar to mutual funds but contain insurance contracts that limit risk for the investors.
MFC’s U.S. ADR was down over 14% yesterday (06/22/09) – the first full day of trading after the announcement. Other insurance companies shared the pain as shown below:
- AFLAC Inc. (AFL) – Down 5.95% – [Analysis]
- MetLife, Inc. (MET) – Down 7.53%
- Lincoln National Corp. (LNC) – Down 6.88%
- Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU) – Down 8.53%
- Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) – Down 7.47%
As with all sympathy declines, some are not warranted based on the circumstances. It could be a good time to invest in certain select insurance stocks.
Bilibala's comments
This is a good opportunity to buy. Manulife has proved to have strong balance sheet and great investment performance compare to peers during the crisis.
This time, i think the additional disclosure will only have immaterial affect to my estimation, I will keep MFC's fair value at $37.8.
While suffering through a large market decline, the last thing you want to see is a letter from the government. It is never good news. Either you are being drafted, they want more money from you or you are under investigation. In the case of Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC), Canada’s largest insurance company, it was the latter.
On Friday June 19th after the market closed, it was reported that MFC received an enforcement notice from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) relating to its disclosure before March 2009 of risks related to its variable annuity guarantee and segregated funds business. The preliminary conclusion of OSC staff is that the Company failed to meet its continuous disclosure obligations related to its exposure to market price risk in its segregated funds and variable annuity guaranteed products. MFC will have the opportunity to respond to the notice before OSC staff makes a final decision about proceeding. The Company believes that its disclosure satisfied applicable disclosure requirements.
Like most insurance companies, MFC has struggled as a result of the declining equity markets. The Company has reported huge losses in excess of one billion Canadian dollars over the last two quarters. Much of which can be attributed to increasing reserves to cover long-term segregated fund and annuity guarantees. Segregated funds are popular investments similar to mutual funds but contain insurance contracts that limit risk for the investors.
MFC’s U.S. ADR was down over 14% yesterday (06/22/09) – the first full day of trading after the announcement. Other insurance companies shared the pain as shown below:
- AFLAC Inc. (AFL) – Down 5.95% – [Analysis]
- MetLife, Inc. (MET) – Down 7.53%
- Lincoln National Corp. (LNC) – Down 6.88%
- Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU) – Down 8.53%
- Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) – Down 7.47%
As with all sympathy declines, some are not warranted based on the circumstances. It could be a good time to invest in certain select insurance stocks.
Bilibala's comments
This is a good opportunity to buy. Manulife has proved to have strong balance sheet and great investment performance compare to peers during the crisis.
This time, i think the additional disclosure will only have immaterial affect to my estimation, I will keep MFC's fair value at $37.8.
Econ data 09 week 26
US
Economy
Economy
- 1Q GDP readjusted to down -5.5% Y/Y from -5.7% Y/Y (better than expected -5.7%)
I think GDP has reached bottom in 1Q, 2Q Y/Y will still be negative but Q/Q should heads upward - May economic leading indicator up 1.2% from 1.1% in Apr
Consumer market
- May durable orders up 1.8% M/M from 1.8% in Apr (better, -0.9%)
- May personal spending up 0.3% M/M from 0.0% in Apr (inline, +0.3%)
- Durable orders looks strong, even though it still dropped 24% Y/Y, at least, we see some recover
House market
- May existing home sales up to 4.77M from 4.66M in Apr (worse, 4.82M)
- May new home sales flat at 342k from 344k in Apr (worse, 360k)
Job market
- May personal income up +1.4% M/M from up +0.7% in Apr M/M (better, +0.3%), 80% of the increase is due to govrnment stimulus
- 06/20 initial jobless claim up to 627k from 612k last week (worse, 600k)
Canada
House market
- Apr home price index down -6.7% Y/Y from 5.8% Y/Y in Mar
- May consumer leading up +1.6% M/M and +13.9% Y/Y to $306.8B
- May household leading up +0.9% M/M and +9.9% Y/Y to $984.1B
- May business leading down -3.5% M/M but up +3.0% Y/Y to $315.1B
- Leading up do means retail sales / home sales up, however, it does not mean house price did go up
- On the other hand, as interest spread being widen, leading up means the Canadian bank will make more profit
ESprit insider sold
06/25/09 遭策略股東頻頻減持的思捷<00330.hk>連跌3天，今早低見$44.6，險守最後防線100天線($44.51)，現造$45.05，逆市續跌1.7%，成交262萬股。
Bilibala's comments:
I look at ESprit's 3q09 & 2008 results. I cannot find anything that is really go wrong which will turn its sales & profit to go down further.
Weak economy in Germany & Europe is the major concern, the change in management is another. Other than that, it looks fine. So I decided to hold and watch it further.
Bilibala's comments:
I look at ESprit's 3q09 & 2008 results. I cannot find anything that is really go wrong which will turn its sales & profit to go down further.
Weak economy in Germany & Europe is the major concern, the change in management is another. Other than that, it looks fine. So I decided to hold and watch it further.
6.25.2009
Reputation up for Canadian
Study Reveals Critical Link between Reputation and Word of Mouth Support
in Driving Bottom Line Results
TORONTO, June 25 /CNW/ - Amidst turbulent times in corporate Canada this
year, Canadian-owned companies' reputations have remained strong in the minds
of Canadians. In a global survey conducted by Reputation Institute earlier
this year, the corporate reputations of the largest Canadian-owned companies
generally improved with the banking sector showing particularly strong gains
in admiration, respect and trust with Canadian consumers.
"As corporate scandals continue to weigh heavily on people's minds, while
they lose their jobs and savings in the current financial crisis, a strong
corporate reputation is no longer a 'nice to have', but rather, absolutely
essential to business success," said Rob Jekielek, Principal, Reputation
Institute. "This year's Canadian results not only illustrate a strong
relationship between the strength of a company's reputation and how likely
consumers are to recommend that company, but also show that corporate ethics/
transparency has now become even more important than products/services in
managing corporate reputation with Canadian consumers."
Two Canadian companies that stood out included Shoppers Drug Mart and
Royal Bank. Shoppers moved into the top tier of global corporate reputations
joining reputation leaders like Johnson & Johnson and IKEA, while Royal Bank,
whose reputation improved from average to strong, showed the best improvement
from 2008 to 2009 among the most reputable Canadian companies.
In addition, top Canadian reputation companies saw direct benefits from
their reputation as consumers were twice as likely to both recommend and the
give benefit of the doubt to Canadian companies with strong reputations vs.
Canadian companies with poor reputations.
Key highlights from 2009 Canadian Global Reputation Pulse study include:
- For the first time, Governance (ethics/transparency) was the most
important dimension of Reputation for Canadian consumers, moving
ahead of Products/Services
- Canadian Tire and the Jean Coutu Group continue to have strong
reputations.
- Bombardier is the highest ranked company with significant
international visibility.
- Canadian banks saw large increases in reputation scores; RBC having
the top score, and having the biggest gain among most reputable
Canadian companies, while BMO made the largest improvement in the
overall study.
- The telecommunications sector (represented by TELUS, Rogers, Bell
Canada and Nortel) has the weakest reputation in the minds of the
public.
Building a Strong Reputation
----------------------------
The Global Reputation Pulse study proves that excellent reputations are
built across seven dimensions of reputation: Products/Services, Innovation,
Governance, Workplace, Citizenship, Leadership and Performance. It further
shows that to establish a solid reputation, it is essential that companies
address all seven dimensions.
The most influential reputation dimension for Canadian consumers is
Governance (ethics/transparency), pushing ahead of Products / Services for the
first time. This year Leadership and Financial Performance were also
increasingly important in building reputation. However to earn trust,
admiration, good feeling and support companies need to address all seven
dimensions of reputation. In Canada, each one alone accounts for over 12
percent of reputation.
Global Reputation Pulse - Largest Canadian Owned Companies
(in Bilibala's portfolio highlighted in blue)
----------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------
Global
Rank Company Pulse
Score
-----------------------------------------------
1 Shoppers Drug Mart 80.56
2 Jean Coutu Group 79.54
3 Canadian Tire 76.28
4 Bombardier 73.36
5 RBC Royal Bank 70.26
6 George Weston Limited (Weston) 70.25
7 Canadian National Railway 69.35
8 Metro 69.22
9 TD Canada Trust 68.99
10 EnCana 68.78
11 Husky Energy 68.06
12 Manulife 67.49
13 Couche-Tard 66.72
14 Sun Life Financial 66.64
15 BMO Bank of Montreal 64.31
16 Scotiabank 63.81
17 Petro-Canada 60.75
18 Hydro Quebec 60.47
19 Power Corp. 60.27
20 Enbridge 59.59
21 CIBC 55.44
22 Air Canada 55.25
23 Telus 53.94
24 Rogers Communications 53.74
25 Bell Canada (BCE) 49.21
26 Nortel 36.20
-----------------------------------------------
Google access disrupted in China
CNN.com
Access to Google has been disrupted in some parts of China, amid a row over what Chinese citizens should be allowed to view over the internet.
Users reported they could not access either Google's search engine or its Chinese-language version.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang accused Google of spreading pornography and breaking Chinese law.
The move came as the US called on China to scrap its plan to put net-filtering software on all new computers.
China has demanded that all computers come supplied with software called Green Dam Youth Escort from 1 July, which it says would filter out pornographic content.
Separately, google.com and some of its products, such as its mail service, were not available in China from Wednesday night to Thursday morning Beijing time, according to Chinese portal Sohu.com.
Most users were able to connect on Thursday, though it was unclear exactly how widespread the disruption actually was. Google said it was investigating the outage.
'Serious violation'
The disruption to Google's services reported by users in Beijing and Shanghai comes a week after China accused Google of deliberately linking to "pornographic and vulgar" websites and ordered it to stop.
"We have found that Google has spread a lot of pornographic content, which is a serious violation of Chinese laws and regulations," Mr Qin told reporters on Thursday.
He urged the company to abide by local rules, but said he had no specific details on the outage.
Meanwhile, the US said China's proposed internet filter would violate China's free trade obligations, weaken computer security and raise serious censorship concerns.
"Mandating technically flawed Green Dam software and denying manufacturers and consumers freedom to select filtering software is an unnecessary and unjustified means to achieve that objective, and poses a serious barrier to trade," said US Trade Representative Ron Kirk.
Trade war?
The latest comment raises the concern about a broader trade war between the US and China over everything from computer security to chicken poultry imports.
It came a day after it filed an unfair trade complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) over raw material exports.
The US is now complaining that putting such pressure on manufacturers to pre-install or supply the software would violate China's WTO free trade obligations.
"China is putting companies in an untenable position by requiring them, with virtually no public notice, to pre-install software that appears to have broad-based censorship implications and network security issues," said US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke.
The Green Dam Youth Escort software was created to stop people looking at "offensive" content such as pornographic or violent websites, China has said.
But China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology later said that use of the software was not compulsory and that it was possible to uninstall the program.
Tests carried out on Green Dam outside China also showed that it left PCs open to many different security risks, including being hijacked.
Petitions calling for Green Dam to be scrapped have circulated widely within China, which has the world's largest net-using population.
Bilibala's comments:
This is just a long running issue, let's make it simple instead of making it too political.
China has its own culture and laws just like any other countries. All the corporation should follow the local government rules and regulation if they want to continue do business there.
It is always difficult to adpot and follow other people's way, so that's the time for American to follow the Chinese way. I am sure Google will find the way out (like it always do) in doing business in China.
Access to Google has been disrupted in some parts of China, amid a row over what Chinese citizens should be allowed to view over the internet.
Users reported they could not access either Google's search engine or its Chinese-language version.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang accused Google of spreading pornography and breaking Chinese law.
The move came as the US called on China to scrap its plan to put net-filtering software on all new computers.
China has demanded that all computers come supplied with software called Green Dam Youth Escort from 1 July, which it says would filter out pornographic content.
Separately, google.com and some of its products, such as its mail service, were not available in China from Wednesday night to Thursday morning Beijing time, according to Chinese portal Sohu.com.
Most users were able to connect on Thursday, though it was unclear exactly how widespread the disruption actually was. Google said it was investigating the outage.
'Serious violation'
The disruption to Google's services reported by users in Beijing and Shanghai comes a week after China accused Google of deliberately linking to "pornographic and vulgar" websites and ordered it to stop.
"We have found that Google has spread a lot of pornographic content, which is a serious violation of Chinese laws and regulations," Mr Qin told reporters on Thursday.
He urged the company to abide by local rules, but said he had no specific details on the outage.
Meanwhile, the US said China's proposed internet filter would violate China's free trade obligations, weaken computer security and raise serious censorship concerns.
"Mandating technically flawed Green Dam software and denying manufacturers and consumers freedom to select filtering software is an unnecessary and unjustified means to achieve that objective, and poses a serious barrier to trade," said US Trade Representative Ron Kirk.
Trade war?
The latest comment raises the concern about a broader trade war between the US and China over everything from computer security to chicken poultry imports.
It came a day after it filed an unfair trade complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) over raw material exports.
The US is now complaining that putting such pressure on manufacturers to pre-install or supply the software would violate China's WTO free trade obligations.
"China is putting companies in an untenable position by requiring them, with virtually no public notice, to pre-install software that appears to have broad-based censorship implications and network security issues," said US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke.
The Green Dam Youth Escort software was created to stop people looking at "offensive" content such as pornographic or violent websites, China has said.
But China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology later said that use of the software was not compulsory and that it was possible to uninstall the program.
Tests carried out on Green Dam outside China also showed that it left PCs open to many different security risks, including being hijacked.
Petitions calling for Green Dam to be scrapped have circulated widely within China, which has the world's largest net-using population.
Bilibala's comments:
This is just a long running issue, let's make it simple instead of making it too political.
China has its own culture and laws just like any other countries. All the corporation should follow the local government rules and regulation if they want to continue do business there.
It is always difficult to adpot and follow other people's way, so that's the time for American to follow the Chinese way. I am sure Google will find the way out (like it always do) in doing business in China.
Buy Buffett vs follow Buffett
(GuruFocus, June 25, 2009) Ten days ago, GoruFocus reported that Berkshire Hathaway is going to report decent gain in the investment in 2Q09, giving its book value a boost, thanks to CocaCola Company, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, The Procter & Gamble Company, Wells Fargo & Company, Kraft Foods, and ConocoPhillips.
Along this line, There is an article on Bloomberg entitled " Buying Like Buffett Beats Investing With Him Amid Stock Rebound " by Ari Levy and Erik Holm today. Here are the key points:
1. People who invest in Warren Buffett’s stocks instead of investing in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A), (BRK-B) stock outright would have better returns since the bear market bottomed more than three months ago.
2. Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s stock advanced 19 percent since U.S. equity indexes reached their lows on March 9. The increase lags behind 15 of the company’s top 20 stock holdings. A $1 million investment mimicking Berkshire’s portfolio would have produced a $682,300 profit through yesterday, compared with a $185,900 gain for the same-sized investment in Berkshire shares.
3. Berkshire is the top shareholder in Wells Fargo, the fourth-largest U.S. bank by assets, and American Express, the biggest credit-card company by purchases. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and American Express Co. (AXP) more than double from their March lows after losing over half their value in the 12 months prior. The company is the biggest owner of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., (GS) which has surged 93 percent since March 9, and the third-leading investor in U.S. Bancorp, (USB)which has climbed 74 percent.
4. A rally in railroad stocks has also lifted Berkshire’s investment portfolio. The company owns 23 percent of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., which has gained 43 percent since March 9, and is among the top 10 holders of Union Pacific Corp. shares, up 50 percent.
5. On the other hand, companies Berkshire owns outright, meanwhile, had declining sales amid the global recession, and the firm’s losses from derivative positions on corporate and municipal debt may not reverse as quickly as those tied to stock markets.
6. The decline in world stock markets at the start of the year contributed to Berkshire’s worst loss in at least two decades in the first quarter. The company wrote down derivatives tied to corporate-debt indexes and took a charge on ConocoPhillips shares purchased when oil prices were near their peak.
7. Berkshire last year cut jobs at units including Clayton Homes Inc., which builds manufactured housing, and brickmaker Acme Building Brands. The U.S. unemployment rate in May climbed to 9.4 percent, the highest since 1983.
8. Buffett said earlier this year that the economic slump depressed revenue at Berkshire’s jewelry businesses and operations related to real estate. Profit at its retail operations, a category that includes furniture and candy stores as well as jewelry, fell by half in the first quarter to $16 million before taxes, the seventh straight decline.
9. Berkshire has a smaller number of derivatives tied to municipal bonds or debt issued by corporations. Berkshire, which collected $3.4 billion in premiums on the derivatives related to corporate debt as of the end of last year, paid $1.13 billion to buyers of the contracts this year through May 8.
10. The company may be forced to pay out more as state and local budget deficits lead public institutions to default, said Charles Ortel, managing director of New York-based Newport Value Partners, who advises clients to sell Berkshire shares short.
11. Berkshire’s liability on derivatives at its finance and financial products operations widened to $15.4 billion as of March 31, from $14.6 billion three months earlier. Whitney Tilson thinks that some of those liabilities, on derivatives tied to four of the world’s stock markets, may have reversed in the second quarter as the indexes recovered.
12. “ Berkshire is cheaper today relative to its intrinsic value than it was on March 9, when its stock portfolio was in the tank and its index puts were marked to market,” Tilson said. “The intrinsic value of Berkshire, when you just factor in those two things, is easily up well over $10,000 a share and the stock really hasn’t moved that much.”
Bilibala comments:
i think if one can learn from such a great & awesome investor, on what/why/how he invest, that's the most benefit part beside $$ or return.
Along this line, There is an article on Bloomberg entitled " Buying Like Buffett Beats Investing With Him Amid Stock Rebound " by Ari Levy and Erik Holm today. Here are the key points:
1. People who invest in Warren Buffett’s stocks instead of investing in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A), (BRK-B) stock outright would have better returns since the bear market bottomed more than three months ago.
2. Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s stock advanced 19 percent since U.S. equity indexes reached their lows on March 9. The increase lags behind 15 of the company’s top 20 stock holdings. A $1 million investment mimicking Berkshire’s portfolio would have produced a $682,300 profit through yesterday, compared with a $185,900 gain for the same-sized investment in Berkshire shares.
3. Berkshire is the top shareholder in Wells Fargo, the fourth-largest U.S. bank by assets, and American Express, the biggest credit-card company by purchases. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and American Express Co. (AXP) more than double from their March lows after losing over half their value in the 12 months prior. The company is the biggest owner of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., (GS) which has surged 93 percent since March 9, and the third-leading investor in U.S. Bancorp, (USB)which has climbed 74 percent.
4. A rally in railroad stocks has also lifted Berkshire’s investment portfolio. The company owns 23 percent of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., which has gained 43 percent since March 9, and is among the top 10 holders of Union Pacific Corp. shares, up 50 percent.
5. On the other hand, companies Berkshire owns outright, meanwhile, had declining sales amid the global recession, and the firm’s losses from derivative positions on corporate and municipal debt may not reverse as quickly as those tied to stock markets.
6. The decline in world stock markets at the start of the year contributed to Berkshire’s worst loss in at least two decades in the first quarter. The company wrote down derivatives tied to corporate-debt indexes and took a charge on ConocoPhillips shares purchased when oil prices were near their peak.
7. Berkshire last year cut jobs at units including Clayton Homes Inc., which builds manufactured housing, and brickmaker Acme Building Brands. The U.S. unemployment rate in May climbed to 9.4 percent, the highest since 1983.
8. Buffett said earlier this year that the economic slump depressed revenue at Berkshire’s jewelry businesses and operations related to real estate. Profit at its retail operations, a category that includes furniture and candy stores as well as jewelry, fell by half in the first quarter to $16 million before taxes, the seventh straight decline.
9. Berkshire has a smaller number of derivatives tied to municipal bonds or debt issued by corporations. Berkshire, which collected $3.4 billion in premiums on the derivatives related to corporate debt as of the end of last year, paid $1.13 billion to buyers of the contracts this year through May 8.
10. The company may be forced to pay out more as state and local budget deficits lead public institutions to default, said Charles Ortel, managing director of New York-based Newport Value Partners, who advises clients to sell Berkshire shares short.
11. Berkshire’s liability on derivatives at its finance and financial products operations widened to $15.4 billion as of March 31, from $14.6 billion three months earlier. Whitney Tilson thinks that some of those liabilities, on derivatives tied to four of the world’s stock markets, may have reversed in the second quarter as the indexes recovered.
12. “ Berkshire is cheaper today relative to its intrinsic value than it was on March 9, when its stock portfolio was in the tank and its index puts were marked to market,” Tilson said. “The intrinsic value of Berkshire, when you just factor in those two things, is easily up well over $10,000 a share and the stock really hasn’t moved that much.”
Bilibala comments:
i think if one can learn from such a great & awesome investor, on what/why/how he invest, that's the most benefit part beside $$ or return.
6.24.2009
Biggest losers & gainers
Banks' profits
Red and black ink
Jun 24th 2009
From http://www.economist.com/
Banks with the biggest profits and losses last year
THE balance sheets of many banks took a pounding last year.
Red and black ink
Jun 24th 2009
From http://www.economist.com/
Banks with the biggest profits and losses last year
THE balance sheets of many banks took a pounding last year.
- Royal Bank of Scotland, which received a government bail-out of $3 billion, posted the largest loss of $59.3 billion, according to an annual review of the world's leading banks by The Banker magazine.
- Citigroup and Wells Fargo also fell into the red by over $45 billion. But all three are still counted among the 12 biggest banks in the world by tier-one capital, albeit at a lower rank than in 2007. Not all was doom and gloom.
- ICBC turned a $21.3 billion profit, one of four Chinese banks to make the top ten.
- HSBC and Barclays, British banks that showed better risk management than RBS, also saw a decent profit.
Shoppers on regulation change
Posted: June 24, 2009, 3:00 PM by Jonathan Ratner
Market Call, Shoppers Drug Mart, legislation
Could changes to the dispensing powers of pharmacists be a boon for Shoppers Drug Mart Ltd.?
Analyst Robert Gibson of Octagon Capital notes pending or already enacted legislation across Canada will lead to changes in pay for pharmacists by their home provinces, although there will not be much clarity on the issue until 2010.
“We believe that the fee the pharmacist will get for extending, adapting, or adjusting a prescription, for example, will be less than what doctors are charging for a similar service,” Mr. Gibson wrote in a note to clients, hiking his target price on the stock to $57 from $49.25. He maintained his "buy" rating on the shares. “Thus, it is in the provincial governments’ interest to proceed.”
The services would have to be more profitable than filling prescriptions, Mr. Gibson reasons, or they will not be adopted by the pharmacist.
“We believe Shoppers will push heavily for their pharmacists to embrace these changes, assuming it adds to the bottom line. We also believe this will be a process that evolves over a number of years.”
His target was based on applying a multiple of 18 to his 2010 per share earnings estimate of $3.16.
Hollie Shaw
Bilibala's comments:
Drug store in Canada are all regulatory protected so they can charge regular customers by a higher profit margin than US. With the issue of aging, rising in drug cost and the above change, Shoppers Drug Mart should be able to enjoy great profit and steady growth opportunities.
Market Call, Shoppers Drug Mart, legislation
Could changes to the dispensing powers of pharmacists be a boon for Shoppers Drug Mart Ltd.?
Analyst Robert Gibson of Octagon Capital notes pending or already enacted legislation across Canada will lead to changes in pay for pharmacists by their home provinces, although there will not be much clarity on the issue until 2010.
“We believe that the fee the pharmacist will get for extending, adapting, or adjusting a prescription, for example, will be less than what doctors are charging for a similar service,” Mr. Gibson wrote in a note to clients, hiking his target price on the stock to $57 from $49.25. He maintained his "buy" rating on the shares. “Thus, it is in the provincial governments’ interest to proceed.”
The services would have to be more profitable than filling prescriptions, Mr. Gibson reasons, or they will not be adopted by the pharmacist.
“We believe Shoppers will push heavily for their pharmacists to embrace these changes, assuming it adds to the bottom line. We also believe this will be a process that evolves over a number of years.”
His target was based on applying a multiple of 18 to his 2010 per share earnings estimate of $3.16.
Hollie Shaw
Bilibala's comments:
Drug store in Canada are all regulatory protected so they can charge regular customers by a higher profit margin than US. With the issue of aging, rising in drug cost and the above change, Shoppers Drug Mart should be able to enjoy great profit and steady growth opportunities.
American Express new card feature
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--American Express announced today a unique, new service that provides American Express® Charge Cardmembers with the ability to set spending limits for Additional Cards on their account. It’s the only consumer card on the market to offer this type of spending control. Now, instead of providing cash to their teenagers, other family members, the nanny, or other household helpers, Cardmembers can set, manage and track spending limits on Additional Cards, helping them to maintain a tighter household budget and track all family expenditures billed to their Card.
“We heard from Cardmembers that they were looking for extra control, especially in these tough economic times,” said Ralph Andretta, executive vice president and general manager of Cardmember Services at American Express. “Parents want to provide their teens and older children with a Card that lets them spend, while helping to instill financial responsibility. I hear from parents who feel like an ATM, handing out cash to family members and household helpers – not able to easily track where the money goes. This new service is an added control feature that acts like a chaperone, allowing Cardmembers to set and track the amount that can be spent at any time.”
Cardmembers can be in control of family spending while extending the benefits, services and protections of the American Express Charge Card to others in their family and lives.
Cardmembers may apply for an Additional Card for anyone who is 15 years of age or older.
Other benefits of having an Additional Card with spending limits include:
“We heard from Cardmembers that they were looking for extra control, especially in these tough economic times,” said Ralph Andretta, executive vice president and general manager of Cardmember Services at American Express. “Parents want to provide their teens and older children with a Card that lets them spend, while helping to instill financial responsibility. I hear from parents who feel like an ATM, handing out cash to family members and household helpers – not able to easily track where the money goes. This new service is an added control feature that acts like a chaperone, allowing Cardmembers to set and track the amount that can be spent at any time.”
Cardmembers can be in control of family spending while extending the benefits, services and protections of the American Express Charge Card to others in their family and lives.
Cardmembers may apply for an Additional Card for anyone who is 15 years of age or older.
Other benefits of having an Additional Card with spending limits include:
- Distinct account numbers: All Cardmembers have separate account numbers, so if an Additional Cardmember’s Card is lost or stolen, a new Card will be reissued with a new number for only that Card, and the entire account doesn’t have to be closed.
- Help establish or build credit history: For those over the age of 18, being an Additional Cardmember on a parent’s account can begin to build a credit history– an important tool in creating a strong financial future.
- Easy tracking system: All charges made on Additional Cards are listed separately, so the primary Cardmember can easily track and manage household spending.
Account Alerts: Cardmembers can sign up to receive emails or text messages to alert them when a set spending amount is being approached or has been reached on one of their Additional Cards. - Ability to change the limit at any time: The primary Cardmember can modify the spending amount anytime, online or over the phone.
Peace of Mind – The Cardmember is in control since they can use the Charge Card as a personal allowance dispenser – allowing others to spend only the amount they’ve approved. - Build up Rewards Point Banks: Cardmembers can earn points faster because all Additional Cards are linked to the primary Cardmember’s Membership Rewards® account.
- No Interest or Finance Charges: The Charge Card is designed to be a pay-in-full product, meaning Cardmembers pay no interest or finance charges because they pay in full at the end of the billing cycle.
The new service is available to Cardmembers who have the following American Express Charge Cards: the American Express Card, the American Express Rewards Green Card, the American Express Preferred Rewards Green Card, the American Express Gold Card, the American Express Rewards Gold Card, the American Express Preferred Rewards Gold Card, the American Express Rewards Plus Gold Card, the Platinum Card®, the Centurion® Card.
Outlook on Real Estate in China
DJ 市場快訊﹕中國政府的政策將繼續有利於房地產發展商 - DBS
香港時間1148（道瓊斯）--DBS稱﹐中國5月份房地產價格的上漲速度快於預期(一線城市的部分房地產項目的價格在過去5個月中上漲了20%以上)﹐這是受逐漸釋放的住房升級和投資需求推動。雖然最新的價格漲勢已經引發政府的關注﹐但該行認為﹐政策不大可能發生變化。該行預計﹐為了提振經濟﹐政府的政策將繼續有利於房地產發展商。補充說﹐該行追蹤的大部分地產股當前的估值尚未完全反映潛在的價格上漲因素。推薦瑞安房地產(0272.HK)﹐因其面向上海市場的業務較多﹐還有華潤置地(1109.HK)﹐因其增長前景強勁。瑞安房地產現跌2.0%﹐至4.78港元﹐華潤置地下跌0.5%﹐至15.84港元。（延遲一個小時發送） -0- 版權所有(c)2009道瓊斯公司
Bilibala's comments:
China's real estate has good potential, on the other hand, it also include risk such as lots of sepculative trading, too many undevelop lands to push the price down, competition between many property developers, plus it is hard to estimate the market value of one particilar land/building.
香港時間1148（道瓊斯）--DBS稱﹐中國5月份房地產價格的上漲速度快於預期(一線城市的部分房地產項目的價格在過去5個月中上漲了20%以上)﹐這是受逐漸釋放的住房升級和投資需求推動。雖然最新的價格漲勢已經引發政府的關注﹐但該行認為﹐政策不大可能發生變化。該行預計﹐為了提振經濟﹐政府的政策將繼續有利於房地產發展商。補充說﹐該行追蹤的大部分地產股當前的估值尚未完全反映潛在的價格上漲因素。推薦瑞安房地產(0272.HK)﹐因其面向上海市場的業務較多﹐還有華潤置地(1109.HK)﹐因其增長前景強勁。瑞安房地產現跌2.0%﹐至4.78港元﹐華潤置地下跌0.5%﹐至15.84港元。（延遲一個小時發送） -0- 版權所有(c)2009道瓊斯公司
Bilibala's comments:
China's real estate has good potential, on the other hand, it also include risk such as lots of sepculative trading, too many undevelop lands to push the price down, competition between many property developers, plus it is hard to estimate the market value of one particilar land/building.
China Bank breach on regulation
《江湖傳聞》憧憬降準備金率，內銀A股全線倒升2%-6%
市傳內地會下調銀行準備金率，改善資金流動性，消息帶動5大內銀A股全線倒升2%-6%，內銀H股跌幅收窄至1%-3.8%。(ad/d)
http://www.audit.gov.cn/n1057/n1072/n258889/1833541.html 在靠後的“八﹑金融機構審計情況”中 北京（道瓊斯）--中國審計署(China National Audit Office)週三稱﹐經審計及審計調查發現﹐6家中資銀行2008年違規貸款超過人民幣300億元（合43.9億美元）﹐反映出這些銀行對基層分支機構的管理存在薄弱環節。 這6家銀行分別是中國工商銀行股份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., 1398.HK, 簡稱﹕工商銀行)﹑中國建設銀行股份有限公司(China Construction Bank Corp., 0939.HK, 簡稱﹕建設銀行)﹑中國銀行股份有限公司(Bank of China Ltd., 3988.HK, 簡稱﹕中國銀行)﹑交通銀行股份有限公司(Bank of Communications Co., 3328.HK, 簡稱﹕交通銀行)﹑中信銀行股份有限公司(China Citic Bank Corp., 0998.HK, 簡稱﹕中信銀行)以及招商銀行股份有限公司(China Merchants Bank Co., 3968.HK, 簡稱﹕招商銀行)。 審計署今年早些時候表示﹐經審計發現﹐中國四大國有商業銀行中的工商銀行﹑建設銀行和中國銀行這三家銀行2008年的違規貸款總額達人民幣60億元。 審計署在全國人大常委會(Standing Committee of the National People's Congress)的一次會議上發表報告稱﹐這6家銀行2008年違規發放土地貸款﹑虛假按揭貸款以及向不符合條件的房地產企業提供貸款人民幣215億元。 報告還表示﹐這些銀行2008年還向不符合國家產業政策或未經批准立項的投資項目發放貸款人民幣107億元﹐另外﹐因貸後監管不嚴有人民幣43.6億元信貸資金違背貸款用途。 報告未詳細介紹這6家銀行中每家銀行的違規貸款情況。 審計署稱﹐目前已收回違規發放的貸款人民幣273億元﹐審計工作完成後已有489人次受到處理
Bilibala's comments
Because of the 準備金率, which limited the bank to lent money out, that's one of the reason the bank will breach the rule in order to increase profit.
I am not saying this is appropriate, but since all the bank is doing it, I don't think it will affect the stock price at all.
市傳內地會下調銀行準備金率，改善資金流動性，消息帶動5大內銀A股全線倒升2%-6%，內銀H股跌幅收窄至1%-3.8%。(ad/d)
http://www.audit.gov.cn/n1057/n1072/n258889/1833541.html 在靠後的“八﹑金融機構審計情況”中 北京（道瓊斯）--中國審計署(China National Audit Office)週三稱﹐經審計及審計調查發現﹐6家中資銀行2008年違規貸款超過人民幣300億元（合43.9億美元）﹐反映出這些銀行對基層分支機構的管理存在薄弱環節。 這6家銀行分別是中國工商銀行股份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., 1398.HK, 簡稱﹕工商銀行)﹑中國建設銀行股份有限公司(China Construction Bank Corp., 0939.HK, 簡稱﹕建設銀行)﹑中國銀行股份有限公司(Bank of China Ltd., 3988.HK, 簡稱﹕中國銀行)﹑交通銀行股份有限公司(Bank of Communications Co., 3328.HK, 簡稱﹕交通銀行)﹑中信銀行股份有限公司(China Citic Bank Corp., 0998.HK, 簡稱﹕中信銀行)以及招商銀行股份有限公司(China Merchants Bank Co., 3968.HK, 簡稱﹕招商銀行)。 審計署今年早些時候表示﹐經審計發現﹐中國四大國有商業銀行中的工商銀行﹑建設銀行和中國銀行這三家銀行2008年的違規貸款總額達人民幣60億元。 審計署在全國人大常委會(Standing Committee of the National People's Congress)的一次會議上發表報告稱﹐這6家銀行2008年違規發放土地貸款﹑虛假按揭貸款以及向不符合條件的房地產企業提供貸款人民幣215億元。 報告還表示﹐這些銀行2008年還向不符合國家產業政策或未經批准立項的投資項目發放貸款人民幣107億元﹐另外﹐因貸後監管不嚴有人民幣43.6億元信貸資金違背貸款用途。 報告未詳細介紹這6家銀行中每家銀行的違規貸款情況。 審計署稱﹐目前已收回違規發放的貸款人民幣273億元﹐審計工作完成後已有489人次受到處理
Bilibala's comments
Because of the 準備金率, which limited the bank to lent money out, that's one of the reason the bank will breach the rule in order to increase profit.
I am not saying this is appropriate, but since all the bank is doing it, I don't think it will affect the stock price at all.
Opinion - can u be a copy cat to beat the original
By Matt Phillips
Can you beat Warren Buffett at his own game?
The Journal’s Brett Arends writes that despite the recent equities rally, some of Buffett’s favorite issues look pretty affordable at the moment:
Mr. Buffett liked oil giant ConocoPhillips (COP) enough to invest $7 billion in the stock through the end of last year, at an average price of $82.55, according to the Berkshire Hathaway annual report. Anyone buying today can get it for about $41.
Mr. Buffett has conceded an “unforced error” in buying this oil stock when oil prices were booming. But that doesn’t mean he has given up on it. In his last comments on the subject a few months ago, he reiterated his belief that demand for energy would remain strong. At current prices ConocoPhillips is about 13 times this year’s forecast earnings, but analysts predict that will drop to a cheap 7 times in 2010. That’s because they believe oil and gas prices will rebound.
He bought Johnson & Johnson at about $62 a share: It’s now about $55, or 12 times likely earnings, yielding 3.5%. He had also invested about $4.3 billion in food company Kraft, at around $33 a share. It’s now around $25, 13 times likely earnings and boosting a hefty 4.7% yield. He had also invested $2.3 billion in US Bancorp at an average price of about $31. Today’s it’s $17.
(Mr. Buffett has added to his positions in both Johnson & Johnson and U.S. Bancorp since.)
Bilibala's comments
In theory, an individual can copy Buffett or copy the best mutual fund managers to build up a portfolio. According to one study, if an individual follow the "what would Buffett do?" approach to purchase and sold exactly what Buffett did in the past 40 years. The rate of return will still be close to 20%, a way higher than the return of the S&P 500 or the average mutual fund.
On the other hand, everyone should do their own study to make sure you are confident enough to hold those stocks in long run. If you are too scare or too greedy in the wrong moment, become a copy cat will make you loss more than earn.
Can you beat Warren Buffett at his own game?
The Journal’s Brett Arends writes that despite the recent equities rally, some of Buffett’s favorite issues look pretty affordable at the moment:
Mr. Buffett liked oil giant ConocoPhillips (COP) enough to invest $7 billion in the stock through the end of last year, at an average price of $82.55, according to the Berkshire Hathaway annual report. Anyone buying today can get it for about $41.
Mr. Buffett has conceded an “unforced error” in buying this oil stock when oil prices were booming. But that doesn’t mean he has given up on it. In his last comments on the subject a few months ago, he reiterated his belief that demand for energy would remain strong. At current prices ConocoPhillips is about 13 times this year’s forecast earnings, but analysts predict that will drop to a cheap 7 times in 2010. That’s because they believe oil and gas prices will rebound.
He bought Johnson & Johnson at about $62 a share: It’s now about $55, or 12 times likely earnings, yielding 3.5%. He had also invested about $4.3 billion in food company Kraft, at around $33 a share. It’s now around $25, 13 times likely earnings and boosting a hefty 4.7% yield. He had also invested $2.3 billion in US Bancorp at an average price of about $31. Today’s it’s $17.
(Mr. Buffett has added to his positions in both Johnson & Johnson and U.S. Bancorp since.)
Bilibala's comments
In theory, an individual can copy Buffett or copy the best mutual fund managers to build up a portfolio. According to one study, if an individual follow the "what would Buffett do?" approach to purchase and sold exactly what Buffett did in the past 40 years. The rate of return will still be close to 20%, a way higher than the return of the S&P 500 or the average mutual fund.
On the other hand, everyone should do their own study to make sure you are confident enough to hold those stocks in long run. If you are too scare or too greedy in the wrong moment, become a copy cat will make you loss more than earn.
6.22.2009
China Cons Bank jun 09 loan
引述《上海證券報》，權威人士透露，6月份前20天的信貸投放，較5月份同期更為迅猛，而按照各大銀行月末衝刺信貸額度的習慣，預計6月份新增信貸將超5月份。今年上半年，新增信貸超6萬億元人民幣(下同)已成定局，或達到6.5萬億。5月份內地新增人民幣貸款達到6645億元。
Bilibala's comments:
More loan means more interest income, even net interest margin may fall, China Cons Bank's 2009 profit should look pretty. The only important task is how the bank handle its mortgage underwritting. The ideal case is only lending $$ to credit worthy individual or corporation.
It is hard, but over the past few years, China Cons Bank has proved to be the best with the lowest bad debt allowance ratio other than China Merchant Bank.
Bilibala's comments:
More loan means more interest income, even net interest margin may fall, China Cons Bank's 2009 profit should look pretty. The only important task is how the bank handle its mortgage underwritting. The ideal case is only lending $$ to credit worthy individual or corporation.
It is hard, but over the past few years, China Cons Bank has proved to be the best with the lowest bad debt allowance ratio other than China Merchant Bank.
China Life premium fall to improve earning quality
6月16日，中国人寿(26.77,-0.16,-0.59%)09年前5个月累计实现保费收入1456亿元，同比下降3.9％，降幅较1至4月累计-1.6％的增速水平继续扩大。
挑战很大，以往的展业方式眼看着就行不通了……
习惯了以客户座谈会形式展业的中国人寿保险股份有限公司 （下称中国人寿）旗下分公司的管理层为此时常抱怨。由于公司进行结构调整，拉长缴费期，保费收取将由一年或三年转为较少的期交；相应的佣金提取减少，对代理人吸引力也随之降低；所有这些意味着销售方式必经转变。
“转型烦恼”
一切都在意料之中。诸如保费下滑，展业模式面临挑战，以及让股东并不满意的0.23元/股红利。
数据显示，中国人寿今年前5个月保费收入同比降幅在进一步扩大，其中5月单月保费收入为196亿元，同比负增长16.5％，较4月-15.0％的增速水平进一步下滑；环比看，5月单月保费下降10.8％，连续两个月出现保费的环比负增长。
“这一点也不意外，正是按照我们今年策略转型逐步落实的结果。”中国人寿总精算师邵慧中说。
今年2月，保监会发布了相关指导意见，明确人身保险行业业务结构调整的重点和方向，鼓励发展风险保障型产品和长期储蓄型产品。
包括中国人寿、中国平安(46.72,1.54,3.41%)在内的很多保险公司开始着手调整业务和产品结构。
中国人寿总裁万峰曾表示，中国人寿将力争用三到五年的时间，实现业务增长由趸缴推动为主向续期拉动为主转变，经营理念由以业务规模为主向注重效益为主转变，市场拓展模式由资源驱动为主向机制驱动为主转变等。
邵慧中介绍，公司的思路是“不求量大，但求质高”。
据悉，如今中国人寿产品策略为主推十年期、停售三年期、限售五年期产品。在预算中增加期缴业务指标和内含价值创造指标的考核，特别是十年期缴业务的考核。
“例如由三年期交的保单转为十年交，一期保费减少了，但整个保单却在做大；此种转型，首年可能会感觉不适应——因为保费下降了，但长期而言，保费日趋增多。”邵慧中说。
不过，截至2月底，中国人寿实现原保险保费收入约672亿元，同比增长12.6%，但随后的月份却增长“乏力”。
邵慧中解释，一个客观原因是去年同期基数很高，现在，包括中国人寿在内，保险业同行都在调整业务结构。
东方证券分析师王小罡说，其实最重要的还是得看中国人寿的一年新业务价值比，通过该指标能看出“质与量”的问题。据其测算，今年中国人寿为10%，中国平安35%，中国太保20%。
不过，一位中国人寿高层认为，10%未免过低了，去年这一指标还接近20%。
邵慧中介绍，中国人寿内部设定的一些指标，目前表现都不错。如续期保费占比同比上升了5%，超过30%；内含价值也在稳健提升。
市场份额调节器：银保渠道
毁誉参半的银保渠道对于中国人寿而言，有着非凡意义。
正是因为去年发力银保业务，中国人寿一举夺回失去的市场份额；总保费增速创出五年来新高。
但中国人寿也为之付出了保费收入不尽合理的代价。如去年上半年银保保费收入中，五年期“鸿丰两全险”就占到1/3。
对此，中金认为中国人寿的这些短期趸缴银保产品，难以穿越利率周期，在目前的低利率环境下实现盈利的难度较大。
“银保方面，我们只是用来做市场调节——市场多做，我们就做多，有助于保持市场份额，最主要侧重点还是个人代理。银保策略是‘紧随市场’。”一位中国人寿高层表示，“但银保方面，现在也在开始注重期交；同理，长期而言，这也是大保单的结果。”
“目前，我们银保渠道主打产品仍是 ‘鸿丰两全险’；还将推出10年期交。”上述中国人寿高层说。
而据中国人寿2008年报显示，该款产品全年销量高达1053.43亿元，成为中国保险史上第一款年销量过千亿的单一产品。
一位中国人寿高层说，如果说银保渠道是市场份额的调节器，那么个险代理人渠道就是利润来源。
对此，王小罡认为，首年个险期缴有两大决定因素：个险代理人规模和代理人均月产能。从08年看，中国人寿的代理人均月产能增长较快，达11%，平安的年均代理人规模增长较快，达28.6%。
挑战很大，以往的展业方式眼看着就行不通了……
习惯了以客户座谈会形式展业的中国人寿保险股份有限公司 （下称中国人寿）旗下分公司的管理层为此时常抱怨。由于公司进行结构调整，拉长缴费期，保费收取将由一年或三年转为较少的期交；相应的佣金提取减少，对代理人吸引力也随之降低；所有这些意味着销售方式必经转变。
“转型烦恼”
一切都在意料之中。诸如保费下滑，展业模式面临挑战，以及让股东并不满意的0.23元/股红利。
数据显示，中国人寿今年前5个月保费收入同比降幅在进一步扩大，其中5月单月保费收入为196亿元，同比负增长16.5％，较4月-15.0％的增速水平进一步下滑；环比看，5月单月保费下降10.8％，连续两个月出现保费的环比负增长。
“这一点也不意外，正是按照我们今年策略转型逐步落实的结果。”中国人寿总精算师邵慧中说。
今年2月，保监会发布了相关指导意见，明确人身保险行业业务结构调整的重点和方向，鼓励发展风险保障型产品和长期储蓄型产品。
包括中国人寿、中国平安(46.72,1.54,3.41%)在内的很多保险公司开始着手调整业务和产品结构。
中国人寿总裁万峰曾表示，中国人寿将力争用三到五年的时间，实现业务增长由趸缴推动为主向续期拉动为主转变，经营理念由以业务规模为主向注重效益为主转变，市场拓展模式由资源驱动为主向机制驱动为主转变等。
邵慧中介绍，公司的思路是“不求量大，但求质高”。
据悉，如今中国人寿产品策略为主推十年期、停售三年期、限售五年期产品。在预算中增加期缴业务指标和内含价值创造指标的考核，特别是十年期缴业务的考核。
“例如由三年期交的保单转为十年交，一期保费减少了，但整个保单却在做大；此种转型，首年可能会感觉不适应——因为保费下降了，但长期而言，保费日趋增多。”邵慧中说。
不过，截至2月底，中国人寿实现原保险保费收入约672亿元，同比增长12.6%，但随后的月份却增长“乏力”。
邵慧中解释，一个客观原因是去年同期基数很高，现在，包括中国人寿在内，保险业同行都在调整业务结构。
东方证券分析师王小罡说，其实最重要的还是得看中国人寿的一年新业务价值比，通过该指标能看出“质与量”的问题。据其测算，今年中国人寿为10%，中国平安35%，中国太保20%。
不过，一位中国人寿高层认为，10%未免过低了，去年这一指标还接近20%。
邵慧中介绍，中国人寿内部设定的一些指标，目前表现都不错。如续期保费占比同比上升了5%，超过30%；内含价值也在稳健提升。
市场份额调节器：银保渠道
毁誉参半的银保渠道对于中国人寿而言，有着非凡意义。
正是因为去年发力银保业务，中国人寿一举夺回失去的市场份额；总保费增速创出五年来新高。
但中国人寿也为之付出了保费收入不尽合理的代价。如去年上半年银保保费收入中，五年期“鸿丰两全险”就占到1/3。
对此，中金认为中国人寿的这些短期趸缴银保产品，难以穿越利率周期，在目前的低利率环境下实现盈利的难度较大。
“银保方面，我们只是用来做市场调节——市场多做，我们就做多，有助于保持市场份额，最主要侧重点还是个人代理。银保策略是‘紧随市场’。”一位中国人寿高层表示，“但银保方面，现在也在开始注重期交；同理，长期而言，这也是大保单的结果。”
“目前，我们银保渠道主打产品仍是 ‘鸿丰两全险’；还将推出10年期交。”上述中国人寿高层说。
而据中国人寿2008年报显示，该款产品全年销量高达1053.43亿元，成为中国保险史上第一款年销量过千亿的单一产品。
一位中国人寿高层说，如果说银保渠道是市场份额的调节器，那么个险代理人渠道就是利润来源。
对此，王小罡认为，首年个险期缴有两大决定因素：个险代理人规模和代理人均月产能。从08年看，中国人寿的代理人均月产能增长较快，达11%，平安的年均代理人规模增长较快，达28.6%。
China Mobile May 09 new subscribers
4月份上客数环比放缓一成的中国移动今早微幅低开0.26%至75.95港元，盘前成交338万股。该公司最新公布的营运数据显示，其5月份新增用户512万户，环比4月份的582.3万户继续萎缩12%；显示当月的营运状况未算理想。但截至5月底中国移动的用户数量仍高达4.881亿户。
同时据境外媒体报导，中国移动正与印度的电信商Reliance Communications(532712-BY)就结成战略联盟进行初步谈判，参股比例可能为5%-6%。但报导并未明确扩张对象是上市公司还是母公司层面，也未提供有关合作的其他进一步细节。
Bilibala's comments:
Growth did slow down and ARPU may continue to fall a little bit in 2q09. But I think China Mobile's stock price has already reflect all those impact, and it is still keeping a nice growing pace.
同时据境外媒体报导，中国移动正与印度的电信商Reliance Communications(532712-BY)就结成战略联盟进行初步谈判，参股比例可能为5%-6%。但报导并未明确扩张对象是上市公司还是母公司层面，也未提供有关合作的其他进一步细节。
Bilibala's comments:
Growth did slow down and ARPU may continue to fall a little bit in 2q09. But I think China Mobile's stock price has already reflect all those impact, and it is still keeping a nice growing pace.
6.19.2009
Econ data 09 week 25
The market fall this week, looks like there is an adjustment after the huge rally from Mar. To me, that's healthy.
In Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fall below 18,000 while China based banks did not fall at all. If there is a further strong downward adjustment going ahead next week (because that is the future expiry date), I think the last to fall will be China based banks, and after that, the index will recapture its rising momentum.
No matter what, i think this downward adjustment will end at around july 10-15 because that's the time US corp start publishing their 2q09 results and I expect them to be better than 1q.
Consumer market
In Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fall below 18,000 while China based banks did not fall at all. If there is a further strong downward adjustment going ahead next week (because that is the future expiry date), I think the last to fall will be China based banks, and after that, the index will recapture its rising momentum.
No matter what, i think this downward adjustment will end at around july 10-15 because that's the time US corp start publishing their 2q09 results and I expect them to be better than 1q.
Consumer market
- US May CPI up +0.1% from 0% in Apr, worse than expect +0.3%
- US May PPI down to +0.2% from +0.3% in Apr, worse +0.6%
- US May capacity utilization down to 68.3% from 69% in Apr, inline 68.4%
- US may leading indicators up 1.2% from 1.0% in Apr, better 1.0%
- US May housing starts up to 532k from 454k in Apr, better 485k
- US May building premits up to 518k from 494k in Apr, better 508k
Job market
- US 06/13 initial jobless claim up to 608k from 605k, inline 604k
6.17.2009
China Life premium may 09
百花齐放才是春，中国人寿(25.09,-0.65,-2.53%)在济南市场上不再一家独大，并不是坏事，对我们保险消费者是好事，让我们有了更多的选择机会。竞争充分的保险市场，没有常胜将军，胜利只是暂时的，较量是永恒的。
平安与国寿平起平坐？
“在省内寿险市场上，最具有标本意义的城市是省城济南，这里聚集了全省所有的保险机构。今年夏天，这里的市场格局发生了变化。一家独大的中国人寿，正在被平安人寿慢慢迫近，甚至在局部，后者已经超过了前者。在保险业内，衡量一家保险公司业绩的一项关键指标是：保险代理人销售保单首年度实现的保费，即新增保费，简称FYP。它对公司地位和队伍士气影响重大。记者了解到，1-4月份，平安人寿济南分公司FYP 约1.33亿元，占比37% ，而中国人寿FYP约1.21亿元，占比约 34% 。时间回到 2008年，平安人寿全年的FYP 是2.76 亿元，而中国人寿则为2.99 亿元。中国人寿要略微超出平安。”
6月7日本报刊登了《省城寿险市场不再“ 一家独大”》的新闻，看到“一家独大的中国人寿，正在被平安人寿慢慢迫近，甚至在局部，后者已经超过了前者”时，笔者感到吃惊，随后笔者从有关方面了解到的最新数据显示，到今年 5月19 日，中国人寿济南市分公司个人代理保费收入为 43235 万元，市场份额37.82% ；平安人寿济南分公司的个人代理保费收入为43388 万元，市场份额37.95% 。
十年河东 十年河西
其实，市场这个东西最难预料，十年河东，十年河西。上世纪90 年代时，平安人寿是济南市场的老大，而在2000 年，中国人寿山东省分公司及时调整了中国人寿济南市公司的领导班子，这一届领导班子把中国人寿在济南的市场份额一步一步提升，最终超越了平安人寿，稳稳坐上了老大的位子。但是，到了现在，为什么号称保险界“黄埔军校”的平安保险没有因为跳槽频繁而耽误发展，相反中国人寿济南市分公司的竞争优势变得不再明显呢？这确实是值得探讨的问题。
数据不能说明一切问题，但数据肯定能说明部分问题。其实，我们不能只看到平安人寿的进步。太平洋(17.57,0.11,0.63%)人寿山东分公司近三年来，大力改变过去重团险业务不重个人代理业务的问题；改变过去重视农村市场，不重视中心城市特别是省城市场份额的争夺。太平洋人寿先是把山东分公司营业部改为太平洋人寿济南中心支公司(济南市分公司)，又在市区内新开设三家支公司，太平洋人寿在济南市场的份额有了明显提高。而海康人寿山东分公司作为一家新公司，其个人代理保费收入在济南市场的份额也占到了1.78%。
可以预料下一步，济南市场上的寿险份额争夺将更加激烈，因为目前有越来越多的寿险公司已经把目光放在济南本部上。笔者了解到，因为山东省各城市发展比较均衡，许多有势力的中小型寿险公司发展初期把精力放在了省会以外的其他城市，但随着公司品牌价值的提升和产品适销对路，在全省和济南市场显示了很强的竞争力。如新华人寿山东分公司个人代理保费收入在全省市场稳步提升的同时，在济南市场上也同比增长28.94% ，占省城市场份额的6.06% 。
百花齐放才是春
目前，很多中小寿险公司活跃在省城保险市场上，他们积极开发寿险新产品，在客户中逐渐树立起自己的品牌，被越来越多的消费者认可。而个别大公司到现在提起中小保险公司的保险产品时仍然不屑一顾，更有甚者保险代理人展业时诋毁中小寿险公司。其实，如果你只利用大公司的品牌优势，销售一些并不适合消费者的产品，到头来，这样的公司必将被消费者遗弃。
百花齐放才是春，中国人寿在济南市场上不再一家独大，并不是坏事，对我们保险消费者是好事，让我们有了更多的选择机会。竞争充分的保险市场，没有常胜将军，胜利只是暂时的，较量是永恒的。
Bilibala's comments
China Life's premium dropped mainly due to
1) Ping An's prior year growth was slower and kind of like a catch up right now;
2) Switch in China Life's direction - to sell longer term insurance like 5 years or above instead of short term one between 3-5 years.
In long run, long term insurance contact should be more profitable than short term, because it involve less uncertainty and can set up more accurate assumptions on pricing the product.
So I think China Life is still in pretty good shape right now.
平安与国寿平起平坐？
“在省内寿险市场上，最具有标本意义的城市是省城济南，这里聚集了全省所有的保险机构。今年夏天，这里的市场格局发生了变化。一家独大的中国人寿，正在被平安人寿慢慢迫近，甚至在局部，后者已经超过了前者。在保险业内，衡量一家保险公司业绩的一项关键指标是：保险代理人销售保单首年度实现的保费，即新增保费，简称FYP。它对公司地位和队伍士气影响重大。记者了解到，1-4月份，平安人寿济南分公司FYP 约1.33亿元，占比37% ，而中国人寿FYP约1.21亿元，占比约 34% 。时间回到 2008年，平安人寿全年的FYP 是2.76 亿元，而中国人寿则为2.99 亿元。中国人寿要略微超出平安。”
6月7日本报刊登了《省城寿险市场不再“ 一家独大”》的新闻，看到“一家独大的中国人寿，正在被平安人寿慢慢迫近，甚至在局部，后者已经超过了前者”时，笔者感到吃惊，随后笔者从有关方面了解到的最新数据显示，到今年 5月19 日，中国人寿济南市分公司个人代理保费收入为 43235 万元，市场份额37.82% ；平安人寿济南分公司的个人代理保费收入为43388 万元，市场份额37.95% 。
十年河东 十年河西
其实，市场这个东西最难预料，十年河东，十年河西。上世纪90 年代时，平安人寿是济南市场的老大，而在2000 年，中国人寿山东省分公司及时调整了中国人寿济南市公司的领导班子，这一届领导班子把中国人寿在济南的市场份额一步一步提升，最终超越了平安人寿，稳稳坐上了老大的位子。但是，到了现在，为什么号称保险界“黄埔军校”的平安保险没有因为跳槽频繁而耽误发展，相反中国人寿济南市分公司的竞争优势变得不再明显呢？这确实是值得探讨的问题。
数据不能说明一切问题，但数据肯定能说明部分问题。其实，我们不能只看到平安人寿的进步。太平洋(17.57,0.11,0.63%)人寿山东分公司近三年来，大力改变过去重团险业务不重个人代理业务的问题；改变过去重视农村市场，不重视中心城市特别是省城市场份额的争夺。太平洋人寿先是把山东分公司营业部改为太平洋人寿济南中心支公司(济南市分公司)，又在市区内新开设三家支公司，太平洋人寿在济南市场的份额有了明显提高。而海康人寿山东分公司作为一家新公司，其个人代理保费收入在济南市场的份额也占到了1.78%。
可以预料下一步，济南市场上的寿险份额争夺将更加激烈，因为目前有越来越多的寿险公司已经把目光放在济南本部上。笔者了解到，因为山东省各城市发展比较均衡，许多有势力的中小型寿险公司发展初期把精力放在了省会以外的其他城市，但随着公司品牌价值的提升和产品适销对路，在全省和济南市场显示了很强的竞争力。如新华人寿山东分公司个人代理保费收入在全省市场稳步提升的同时，在济南市场上也同比增长28.94% ，占省城市场份额的6.06% 。
百花齐放才是春
目前，很多中小寿险公司活跃在省城保险市场上，他们积极开发寿险新产品，在客户中逐渐树立起自己的品牌，被越来越多的消费者认可。而个别大公司到现在提起中小保险公司的保险产品时仍然不屑一顾，更有甚者保险代理人展业时诋毁中小寿险公司。其实，如果你只利用大公司的品牌优势，销售一些并不适合消费者的产品，到头来，这样的公司必将被消费者遗弃。
百花齐放才是春，中国人寿在济南市场上不再一家独大，并不是坏事，对我们保险消费者是好事，让我们有了更多的选择机会。竞争充分的保险市场，没有常胜将军，胜利只是暂时的，较量是永恒的。
Bilibala's comments
China Life's premium dropped mainly due to
1) Ping An's prior year growth was slower and kind of like a catch up right now;
2) Switch in China Life's direction - to sell longer term insurance like 5 years or above instead of short term one between 3-5 years.
In long run, long term insurance contact should be more profitable than short term, because it involve less uncertainty and can set up more accurate assumptions on pricing the product.
So I think China Life is still in pretty good shape right now.
China Mobile in Telecom industry
12580和TD的胜利，分别代表了这家老牌电信企业的两个面：12580延续着中国移动多媒体服务的理念，而TD则是中国移动在技术领域的一次全新尝试
中国移动不是“恐龙”。
2003年，从“语音通信专家”到“手机媒体商”，中国移动依靠开放资源、拓展渠道，迅速变身成为了国内最大的网络运营商。2008年，中国移动的定位则从“手机媒体商”变成了集技术服务于一体的“全能运营商”。12580和TD-SCDMA在这一年里分别代表了这家老牌电信企业的两个面：12580延续着中国移动多媒体服务的理念，而TD-SCDMA(以下简称TD)则是中国移动在技术领域的一次全新尝试。
12580通过语音、短信、彩信、WAP、互联网等多种服务通道，面向大众提供便捷和优质的生活便民、咨询、餐饮娱乐、购物、优惠折扣、商务等各类信息查询的综合服务。在奥运会期间，有超过200万人次拨打12580查询奥运信息，用户短信查询量超过了230万条，外语服务量已超过1万次，其中20%左右为非英语呼。奥运会之后，12580在品牌知名度及美誉度上已经超越了耳熟能详的114，成为国内最大的综合信息语音服务门户。
如果说12580的成功是中国移动贯彻“手机媒体商”理念的胜利，TD的出现也许是中国移动积极由“服务型”运营商向“服务+技术”全能运营商转型的标志。2008年中国移动率先推出了基于TD网络的3G移动业务，从而揭开了中国3G时代的序幕。TD是近年来“中国制造”转型成“中国创造”开出的最响亮的一枪，在TD的技术创新中，中国移动起到了主导作用，研究并取得了多项创新成果，包括替代GPS技术、全新一体化天线、最佳的时隙配比等等。2008年初，中国移动完成了包括北京、上海、广州在内的10个城市TD网络的建设，随后在4月1日，中国移动启动TD社会化业务测试和试商用。截至2008年底，在中国使用TD网络的3G手机用户已达到41.9万人。
对于中国移动来说，41.9万人只是一个开始，与每月新增几百万的用户增长速度相比，这个数字显得有些微不足道。相比起中国联通的WCDMA(欧洲标准)与中国电信的CDMA2000(美国标准)，拥有自主知识产权的TD显得有些孤独。中国移动总裁王建宙觉得用户数量增长缓慢主要原因是因为现在的TD网络的建设还没有全面覆盖，3G多媒体功能也还有待开发。而一旦这些功能全部启用，TD将带动包括网络建设、终端设备制造、运营服务、信息服务在内的相关产业经济高速增长，并逐步形成一条以中国移动为核心的庞大产业链。
成为一个全能运营商，是现阶段中国移动的目标。早在2008年初的时候，王建宙就提出了成为全能运营商需要改善的四个方面：首先是技术创新，进一步提高技术创新与市场需求的结合和互动；其次是加快推进社会信息化，提高信息化服务的覆盖面和收入占比；再次是拓展新业务，探索互联网业务拓展模式，发展符合手机特点的互联网新业务；最后是推进“走出去”战略。
2008年的财报显示，中国移动净利润高达1129.54亿元人民币，超过联通与电信加起来的净利润的2倍，但是在商业战场上，这家电信业巨头没有选择保守，而是主动出击。
Bilibala's comments:
I agree, we can't under estimate the potential of China Mobile !!
Given the strong cash flow and stron brand name, it can improve its local phone line and internet service significantly too.
中国移动不是“恐龙”。
2003年，从“语音通信专家”到“手机媒体商”，中国移动依靠开放资源、拓展渠道，迅速变身成为了国内最大的网络运营商。2008年，中国移动的定位则从“手机媒体商”变成了集技术服务于一体的“全能运营商”。12580和TD-SCDMA在这一年里分别代表了这家老牌电信企业的两个面：12580延续着中国移动多媒体服务的理念，而TD-SCDMA(以下简称TD)则是中国移动在技术领域的一次全新尝试。
12580通过语音、短信、彩信、WAP、互联网等多种服务通道，面向大众提供便捷和优质的生活便民、咨询、餐饮娱乐、购物、优惠折扣、商务等各类信息查询的综合服务。在奥运会期间，有超过200万人次拨打12580查询奥运信息，用户短信查询量超过了230万条，外语服务量已超过1万次，其中20%左右为非英语呼。奥运会之后，12580在品牌知名度及美誉度上已经超越了耳熟能详的114，成为国内最大的综合信息语音服务门户。
如果说12580的成功是中国移动贯彻“手机媒体商”理念的胜利，TD的出现也许是中国移动积极由“服务型”运营商向“服务+技术”全能运营商转型的标志。2008年中国移动率先推出了基于TD网络的3G移动业务，从而揭开了中国3G时代的序幕。TD是近年来“中国制造”转型成“中国创造”开出的最响亮的一枪，在TD的技术创新中，中国移动起到了主导作用，研究并取得了多项创新成果，包括替代GPS技术、全新一体化天线、最佳的时隙配比等等。2008年初，中国移动完成了包括北京、上海、广州在内的10个城市TD网络的建设，随后在4月1日，中国移动启动TD社会化业务测试和试商用。截至2008年底，在中国使用TD网络的3G手机用户已达到41.9万人。
对于中国移动来说，41.9万人只是一个开始，与每月新增几百万的用户增长速度相比，这个数字显得有些微不足道。相比起中国联通的WCDMA(欧洲标准)与中国电信的CDMA2000(美国标准)，拥有自主知识产权的TD显得有些孤独。中国移动总裁王建宙觉得用户数量增长缓慢主要原因是因为现在的TD网络的建设还没有全面覆盖，3G多媒体功能也还有待开发。而一旦这些功能全部启用，TD将带动包括网络建设、终端设备制造、运营服务、信息服务在内的相关产业经济高速增长，并逐步形成一条以中国移动为核心的庞大产业链。
成为一个全能运营商，是现阶段中国移动的目标。早在2008年初的时候，王建宙就提出了成为全能运营商需要改善的四个方面：首先是技术创新，进一步提高技术创新与市场需求的结合和互动；其次是加快推进社会信息化，提高信息化服务的覆盖面和收入占比；再次是拓展新业务，探索互联网业务拓展模式，发展符合手机特点的互联网新业务；最后是推进“走出去”战略。
2008年的财报显示，中国移动净利润高达1129.54亿元人民币，超过联通与电信加起来的净利润的2倍，但是在商业战场上，这家电信业巨头没有选择保守，而是主动出击。
Bilibala's comments:
I agree, we can't under estimate the potential of China Mobile !!
Given the strong cash flow and stron brand name, it can improve its local phone line and internet service significantly too.
China Cons Bank forecast
DBS唯高達提高建行<00939.hk>09-2010年盈利預測，原因是資產質素應可保持穩定。自09年3月起，不良貸款於4月及5月持續下降。銀行積極貸款，加上中國經濟開始走出谷底，令建行的現金流改善。如果復甦較預期強勁，將有空間進一步下調不良貸款預測。該行仍保守預計2010年撇賬前的不良貸款上升37%，09年信貸成本為0.92%，而2010年為1.0%。截至08年底，建行的房產及基建貸款參與度最高，分別佔整體貸款25%和38%。建行亦是唯一獲基建項目財諮牌照的銀行，因此建行為房產市場蓬勃和政府持續投資基建的最大得益者。該行預測建行09年貸款增長24%，2010年增長18%。由於貸款結構優化及停止減息，建行將如其他同業，淨息差於今年首季見底，並於第二季開始改善，及有進一步上調空間。建行表示，有計劃收購信達資產管理20%-30%股權。雖然仍未清楚交易細節，但交易將有助建行分散收費業務。信達除清理不良貸款業務外，亦持有信達證券，信達期貨，信達澳銀基金，幸福壽險及信達國際<00111.hk>。儘管建行股本回報(09年為20%，2010年為21%)應高於工行<01398.hk>(09年為19%，2010年為20%)，但建行今明兩年市賬率僅及工行的6%及10%。建行目前以低於中期市賬率30%交投，故有可能進一步重估。該行指年初至今，建行跑輸同業，但為其首選，予「買入」評級，目標價6.9元。(ka/w)
I think China Cons Bank is great, given the goverment construction planning in future and its profession experience in construction business.
I think China Cons Bank is great, given the goverment construction planning in future and its profession experience in construction business.
6.12.2009
Econ data 09 week 24
Overall
Consumer market
- US Apr trade balance down to -$29.B from -$28.5B in Mar, inline with expect -$29.B
Consumer market
- US May retail sales up +0.5% from down -0.2% in Apr, inline +0.5%
- US Apr wholesale inventories down -1.4% from down -1.8% in Mar, better -1.2%
- US Apr business inventories down -1.1% from down -1.3% in Mar, better -1.0%
- US Jun Mich sentiment up to 69 from 68.7 in May, inline 69.5
- Economic data looks better and more positive towards the end of recession on 3q09
- US 06/06 initial claims down to 601k from 625k last week, better 615k
6.10.2009
Canada New-housing price falls
1.2% decline in Vancouver stems from builders lowering prices to boost sales
Last Updated: Wednesday, June 10, 2009 10:59 AM ET
CBC News
Contractors' selling prices for new homes countrywide dropped 0.6 per cent in April, compared with a 0.5 per cent decline in March, and prices declined the most in Vancouver, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday.
The federal agency said its new-housing price index has slipped 3.2 per cent since it reached a record high of 158.7 last September.
In Vancouver, prices fell 1.2 per cent. That drop was followed by Edmonton, which was down 0.9 per cent, and Calgary, which was down 0.8 per cent.
Statistics Canada said most builders are still reducing prices to boost sales in Vancouver.
Some builders in Alberta reported an increase in material costs because of new fire code regulations, but those increases were not reflected in prices for new houses because builders lowered prices or offered free upgrades in a bid to stay competitive.
Prices fell in Hamilton and Kitchener, Ont., by 0.7 per cent; in Toronto and nearby Oshawa by 0.6 per cent; and in Victoria by 0.6 per cent.
Between March and April, most contractors' selling prices for new homes dropped or stayed the same for the cities surveyed. The exceptions were in St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont., where prices rose by 0.6 per cent. In St. John's, prices rose by 0.3 per cent, while in Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton, prices rose by 0.2 per cent.
In St. Catharines-Niagara, contractors said selling prices have gone back to their regular list price levels after a few months of lower transaction prices. In St John's, builders' prices have been on the rise because of high demand for housing. That demand has created a shortage of lots.
Statistics Canada reported that the new-housing price index decreased year-over-year by three per cent in April, mostly because of decreases in Western Canada.
On the Prairies, 12-month declines were noted in Edmonton, where there was a drop of 12.5 per cent, in Saskatoon, which was down 11.9 per cent, and in Calgary, where there was a drop of 8.8 per cent.
On the West Coast, Vancouver and Victoria each also posted year-over-year declines. Prices in Vancouver dropped nine per cent, while Victoria dropped seven per cent.
Bilibala's comments
Lot people try to rush in and saying the house price will rise dramatically soon. To me, as Ontario unemployment rate up to 9.4%, i don't think the house price will rise a lot in short term. It should give me and give everyone a 3-6 months "flat price" period to look for a shelter.
Think and analyze before you take action!!
Never rush in before that.
Last Updated: Wednesday, June 10, 2009 10:59 AM ET
CBC News
Contractors' selling prices for new homes countrywide dropped 0.6 per cent in April, compared with a 0.5 per cent decline in March, and prices declined the most in Vancouver, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday.
The federal agency said its new-housing price index has slipped 3.2 per cent since it reached a record high of 158.7 last September.
In Vancouver, prices fell 1.2 per cent. That drop was followed by Edmonton, which was down 0.9 per cent, and Calgary, which was down 0.8 per cent.
Statistics Canada said most builders are still reducing prices to boost sales in Vancouver.
Some builders in Alberta reported an increase in material costs because of new fire code regulations, but those increases were not reflected in prices for new houses because builders lowered prices or offered free upgrades in a bid to stay competitive.
Prices fell in Hamilton and Kitchener, Ont., by 0.7 per cent; in Toronto and nearby Oshawa by 0.6 per cent; and in Victoria by 0.6 per cent.
Between March and April, most contractors' selling prices for new homes dropped or stayed the same for the cities surveyed. The exceptions were in St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont., where prices rose by 0.6 per cent. In St. John's, prices rose by 0.3 per cent, while in Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton, prices rose by 0.2 per cent.
In St. Catharines-Niagara, contractors said selling prices have gone back to their regular list price levels after a few months of lower transaction prices. In St John's, builders' prices have been on the rise because of high demand for housing. That demand has created a shortage of lots.
Statistics Canada reported that the new-housing price index decreased year-over-year by three per cent in April, mostly because of decreases in Western Canada.
On the Prairies, 12-month declines were noted in Edmonton, where there was a drop of 12.5 per cent, in Saskatoon, which was down 11.9 per cent, and in Calgary, where there was a drop of 8.8 per cent.
On the West Coast, Vancouver and Victoria each also posted year-over-year declines. Prices in Vancouver dropped nine per cent, while Victoria dropped seven per cent.
Bilibala's comments
Lot people try to rush in and saying the house price will rise dramatically soon. To me, as Ontario unemployment rate up to 9.4%, i don't think the house price will rise a lot in short term. It should give me and give everyone a 3-6 months "flat price" period to look for a shelter.
Think and analyze before you take action!!
Never rush in before that.
6.09.2009
Petro-Canada & Suncor Merger
Issue Date: CSP Daily News, June 8, 2009,
Petro-Canada, Suncor Shareholders Approve Merger
Deal is subject to regulatory approvals, Competition Board review
CALGARY, Alberta -- At their respective annual meetings, Petro-Canada and Suncor Energy Inc. shareholders approved plans that will result in the merger of the two Canadian companies and certain of their subsidiaries: 96% of the Petro-Canada shareholders present voted for the merger; 98.07% of the Suncor shareholders at the meeting voted in favor of the merger.
The deal, first announced in March, is subject to all regulatory approvals and review by the Canadian Competition Bureau. The merged company will keep the Suncor name and will retain the Petro-Canada retail brand. (Click here for previous CSP Daily News coverage.)
"Shareholders recognized that the merger between Petro-Canada and Suncor would create Canada's premier integrated energy company with the assets, cost structure and financial strength to compete globally," said Ron Brenneman, Petro-Canada's president and CEO.
"This is a great vote of confidence from our shareholders," said Rick George, president and CEO of Suncor, who will assume the same role in the merged company. "Creating a made-in-Canada company that can compete on a global scale is good for shareholders and good for Canada. We anticipate that our two companies will be able to realize efficiencies and opportunities neither of us could have realized on our own. With an integrated business model we expect to have a global leadership position in the oil sands industry, a strong Canadian downstream brand, an attractive portfolio of domestic and international oil and natural gas assets, and numerous growth opportunities through the combined inventory of Suncor and Petro-Canada's potential development projects."
Click here for addition leadership changes.
At Petro-Canada, shareholders approved a new stock option plan by more than 52% of the votes cast, which will bring together the plans of Suncor and Petro-Canada and be used to attract and retain highly qualified directors, officers and employees. At Suncor, 57.67% of the votes cast were in favor of the new stock option plan.
Both companies elected 11 board members, including 10 independent directors until the earlier of either the completion of the merger or the next annual general meeting. These individuals are also proposed board members for the new merged company.
Petro-Canada also appointed Deloitte & Touche LLP as its auditors; Suncor appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
Calgary, Alberta-based Petro-Canada is one of Canada's largest oil and gas companies, operating in both the upstream and the downstream sectors of the industry in Canada and internationally.
Suncor is an integrated energy company also headquartered in Calgary. Along with its upstream operations, it operates a refining and marketing business in Ontario with retail distribution under the Sunoco brand. U.S. downstream assets include pipeline and refining operations in Colorado and Wyoming and retail sales in the Denver area under the Phillips 66 brand. Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. is an authorized licensee of the Phillips 66 brand and marks in the state of Colorado. Sunoco in Canada is separate and unrelated to Sunoco in the United States, which is owned by Sunoco Inc., Philadelphia.
Bilibala's comments:
Once it got approved by the regulator, the merged company will become the largest intergated oil & gas company in Canada. To me, this deal is more in favour to Suncor than to Petro Canada. Both company stock price go up a lot after the annoucement of the merge. I will stay away from them until I review the 1st two merged financial statements.
Petro-Canada, Suncor Shareholders Approve Merger
Deal is subject to regulatory approvals, Competition Board review
CALGARY, Alberta -- At their respective annual meetings, Petro-Canada and Suncor Energy Inc. shareholders approved plans that will result in the merger of the two Canadian companies and certain of their subsidiaries: 96% of the Petro-Canada shareholders present voted for the merger; 98.07% of the Suncor shareholders at the meeting voted in favor of the merger.
The deal, first announced in March, is subject to all regulatory approvals and review by the Canadian Competition Bureau. The merged company will keep the Suncor name and will retain the Petro-Canada retail brand. (Click here for previous CSP Daily News coverage.)
"Shareholders recognized that the merger between Petro-Canada and Suncor would create Canada's premier integrated energy company with the assets, cost structure and financial strength to compete globally," said Ron Brenneman, Petro-Canada's president and CEO.
"This is a great vote of confidence from our shareholders," said Rick George, president and CEO of Suncor, who will assume the same role in the merged company. "Creating a made-in-Canada company that can compete on a global scale is good for shareholders and good for Canada. We anticipate that our two companies will be able to realize efficiencies and opportunities neither of us could have realized on our own. With an integrated business model we expect to have a global leadership position in the oil sands industry, a strong Canadian downstream brand, an attractive portfolio of domestic and international oil and natural gas assets, and numerous growth opportunities through the combined inventory of Suncor and Petro-Canada's potential development projects."
Click here for addition leadership changes.
At Petro-Canada, shareholders approved a new stock option plan by more than 52% of the votes cast, which will bring together the plans of Suncor and Petro-Canada and be used to attract and retain highly qualified directors, officers and employees. At Suncor, 57.67% of the votes cast were in favor of the new stock option plan.
Both companies elected 11 board members, including 10 independent directors until the earlier of either the completion of the merger or the next annual general meeting. These individuals are also proposed board members for the new merged company.
Petro-Canada also appointed Deloitte & Touche LLP as its auditors; Suncor appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
Calgary, Alberta-based Petro-Canada is one of Canada's largest oil and gas companies, operating in both the upstream and the downstream sectors of the industry in Canada and internationally.
Suncor is an integrated energy company also headquartered in Calgary. Along with its upstream operations, it operates a refining and marketing business in Ontario with retail distribution under the Sunoco brand. U.S. downstream assets include pipeline and refining operations in Colorado and Wyoming and retail sales in the Denver area under the Phillips 66 brand. Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. is an authorized licensee of the Phillips 66 brand and marks in the state of Colorado. Sunoco in Canada is separate and unrelated to Sunoco in the United States, which is owned by Sunoco Inc., Philadelphia.
Bilibala's comments:
Once it got approved by the regulator, the merged company will become the largest intergated oil & gas company in Canada. To me, this deal is more in favour to Suncor than to Petro Canada. Both company stock price go up a lot after the annoucement of the merge. I will stay away from them until I review the 1st two merged financial statements.
6.08.2009
Google searches mirror the economy
What consumers search for, and how they do it, tends to mirror their financial health. Advertisers are taking note.
By Beth Kowitt, reporter
June 8, 2009: 10:36 AM ET
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- When the stock market goes up these days, your 401(k) isn't the only thing that will follow. So, too, does the volume of Google searches for economic terms.
In fact, Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) has found that queries for terms like "investments" closely mirror the performance of the stock market. And if you're spending a lot of time shopping around for a new credit card, you're probably a credit-worthy consumer that any card issuer would be happy to serve.
Google says these insights, gleaned from a new study about the way U.S. consumers shop for financial services, suggest that the way we search -- not just the keywords we search -- say a lot about us.
"The broader issue and the broader trends that we're seeing are that the financial landscape is really, really complicated," says Jon Kaplan, Google's financial services industry director. "The complexity of the financial situation right now is causing people to search more, and we see that."
The queries aren't just a bellwether for the economy but also a barometer of public sentiment.
This tie between search and psyche has not been lost on advertisers, who believe they can market more effectively by capitalizing on this connection. Google has responded by scrutinizing the ways users search for products.
This intense focus on the psychology of search has emerged as sites like Google have become more integral to everything consumers do, says Shar VanBoskirk, an analyst with Forrester Research. "The search engine is supplanting content sites in many cases," she says. "People are starting any decision they make with a search."
Search terms. For online advertisers this means targeting ads to specific search terms is more important than ever. Google started hearing from financial companies that they were looking for the "right kind of customers." (Translation: Deadbeats need not apply.) These firms wanted to direct their ads to credit worthy people, says Kaplan. This prompted Google to look more closely at search funnels -- the path users take during the search process for a product.
Through research company Compete, Google undertook a study that examined the ways that a 2 million U.S. online consumer panel searched and shopped for credit cards between January and February 2009.
The research showed that people with high FICO scores, and thus the more credit worthy customers, shop around more but apply less frequently than lower FICO score searchers. Applications among high FICO shoppers increased significantly for those that searched at least 10 times.
"One of the high level themes that came out of this is that people with high FICO scores are spending a lot more time shopping than they used to," says Kaplan. "There's a much longer time to conversion or application."
Consumers with better credit searched specific terms such as brands and rewards and were more likely to shop directly on an issuer's site. People with lower FICO scores applied to several different cards, utilized the term "best credit cards" at a third of the rate of higher FICO shoppers, and were more likely to use aggregator sites.
Ad strategies. In response what some of Google's advertisers have done is select search terms such as specific brands or "travel rewards," says Kaplan. Even though the consumer's search might not immediately convert into a credit card application, the company's ad is more likely to appear to a high FICO score searcher.
While the results are obviously useful to advertisers, VanBoskirk with Forrester notes that consumers prefer to see ads that are more relevant to them. But targeting shouldn't give advertisers the license to overly bombard searchers, she says.
Along with changing how companies direct their ads, Kaplan says the results of the study might also change the way they reach out to potential customers. The sheer volume of queries from consumers indicates that they're looking to more than just apply for an account when they search. They're also looking for information.
"Maybe one of the things that credit card companies should consider is doing some more educational content and comparison on their site," he says. "I think we'll see some more of that coming out as advertisers adopt this."
Bilibala comments:
When there are searched, there are needs & wants. However, search in itself can't fulfil our needs & wants. So we keep searching & searching until we find fulfilment.
By Beth Kowitt, reporter
June 8, 2009: 10:36 AM ET
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- When the stock market goes up these days, your 401(k) isn't the only thing that will follow. So, too, does the volume of Google searches for economic terms.
In fact, Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) has found that queries for terms like "investments" closely mirror the performance of the stock market. And if you're spending a lot of time shopping around for a new credit card, you're probably a credit-worthy consumer that any card issuer would be happy to serve.
Google says these insights, gleaned from a new study about the way U.S. consumers shop for financial services, suggest that the way we search -- not just the keywords we search -- say a lot about us.
"The broader issue and the broader trends that we're seeing are that the financial landscape is really, really complicated," says Jon Kaplan, Google's financial services industry director. "The complexity of the financial situation right now is causing people to search more, and we see that."
The queries aren't just a bellwether for the economy but also a barometer of public sentiment.
This tie between search and psyche has not been lost on advertisers, who believe they can market more effectively by capitalizing on this connection. Google has responded by scrutinizing the ways users search for products.
This intense focus on the psychology of search has emerged as sites like Google have become more integral to everything consumers do, says Shar VanBoskirk, an analyst with Forrester Research. "The search engine is supplanting content sites in many cases," she says. "People are starting any decision they make with a search."
Search terms. For online advertisers this means targeting ads to specific search terms is more important than ever. Google started hearing from financial companies that they were looking for the "right kind of customers." (Translation: Deadbeats need not apply.) These firms wanted to direct their ads to credit worthy people, says Kaplan. This prompted Google to look more closely at search funnels -- the path users take during the search process for a product.
Through research company Compete, Google undertook a study that examined the ways that a 2 million U.S. online consumer panel searched and shopped for credit cards between January and February 2009.
The research showed that people with high FICO scores, and thus the more credit worthy customers, shop around more but apply less frequently than lower FICO score searchers. Applications among high FICO shoppers increased significantly for those that searched at least 10 times.
"One of the high level themes that came out of this is that people with high FICO scores are spending a lot more time shopping than they used to," says Kaplan. "There's a much longer time to conversion or application."
Consumers with better credit searched specific terms such as brands and rewards and were more likely to shop directly on an issuer's site. People with lower FICO scores applied to several different cards, utilized the term "best credit cards" at a third of the rate of higher FICO shoppers, and were more likely to use aggregator sites.
Ad strategies. In response what some of Google's advertisers have done is select search terms such as specific brands or "travel rewards," says Kaplan. Even though the consumer's search might not immediately convert into a credit card application, the company's ad is more likely to appear to a high FICO score searcher.
While the results are obviously useful to advertisers, VanBoskirk with Forrester notes that consumers prefer to see ads that are more relevant to them. But targeting shouldn't give advertisers the license to overly bombard searchers, she says.
Along with changing how companies direct their ads, Kaplan says the results of the study might also change the way they reach out to potential customers. The sheer volume of queries from consumers indicates that they're looking to more than just apply for an account when they search. They're also looking for information.
"Maybe one of the things that credit card companies should consider is doing some more educational content and comparison on their site," he says. "I think we'll see some more of that coming out as advertisers adopt this."
Bilibala comments:
When there are searched, there are needs & wants. However, search in itself can't fulfil our needs & wants. So we keep searching & searching until we find fulfilment.
6.05.2009
New Accounting Rules
Posted Jun 5th 2009 3:10PM by Connie Madon
Filed under: Earnings reports, Market matters, Financial Crisis
With a sleight of hand, the Financial Accounting Standards Board gave banks a way of hiding their losses, at least for the time being. What was this sleight of hand? With powerful lobbying by 16 industry association groups who call themselves the Fair Value Coalition, a proposal to use "mark to market" to price the value of distressed assets was killed. Congress, it seems, bowed to the lobbyists and complained that the existing "mark to market" standards worsened the financial crisis. So what is the new rule? Who knows? Its hard to figure out exactly what standard banks are using to price distressed assets.
Meanwhile banks have been showing nice profits over the past month. And we've seen glowing comments from bank executives telling us how their profit picture has improved.The problem is that they don't reflect the true financial condition of the banks. Martin Weiss of Weiss Research Inc. said: "the big banks' profit were actually bogus." Weiss goes on to say: "Citigroup's $1.6 billion in first quarter profit would vanish if accounting were more stringent." At Citigroup (NYSE: C), which received $346 billion in fresh capital and asset guarantees from the government, about 25% of its quarterly net income came from debt securities rule changes. At Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), the new standards boosted its capital by $2.8 billion dollars and augmented its income by $334 million. This won't last because Wells Fargo faces large loan losses from increasing home mortgage defaults.
According to Tavakoli, 40% of subprime mortgages are already 30 days or more overdue and defaults may go as high as 55%. So when will the banks' next time bomb explode? It could come in 2010 when regulators force banks to put distressed assets "on the books." So far banks are keeping billions and even trillions of dollars "off the books." Who knows what kind of losses are hidden among them. As we speak the lobbyists are marshaling their forces along with the Fair Value Coalition and are descending upon Congress to kill this new rule, just like they did "mark to market."
I don't know what's wrong with regulators or Congress that they don't see that unless banks put all of their "off the books" securities "on the books" that we will have another financial crisis. What is the greatest mystery of this century is why banks are not forced to do business like everyone else. They are the backbone of our economy. Sooner or later they will have to "bite the bullet" and let the chips fall where they may.
Do you believe that banks should put all of their "off the books" assets "on the books?"
Bilibala comments
I think there is a trade off between reliable and relevant.
Cost is more reliable while market value is more relevant & subjected to lots of unreliable, subjective & short sighted market movement.
By thinking using mark-to-market will provide the most reliable and relevant results, in itself, is stupid!! Only those financial analysts who don't know accounting will say that.
Unrealized gain / loss is not a loss, at least, it is not a realized loss. Current accounting rule and SOX requipment should be able to keep the corporation from hiding their loss.
Today, USA government change the rule to mark-to-model under circumstance is good. Not just because it will help the financial institution a relief to stop marking the assets further down. It also bring a balance between reliable and relevant, provide a more balance & more conservative balance sheet to shareholders, investors and to senior management team. So that they can have better decision making for future.
Filed under: Earnings reports, Market matters, Financial Crisis
With a sleight of hand, the Financial Accounting Standards Board gave banks a way of hiding their losses, at least for the time being. What was this sleight of hand? With powerful lobbying by 16 industry association groups who call themselves the Fair Value Coalition, a proposal to use "mark to market" to price the value of distressed assets was killed. Congress, it seems, bowed to the lobbyists and complained that the existing "mark to market" standards worsened the financial crisis. So what is the new rule? Who knows? Its hard to figure out exactly what standard banks are using to price distressed assets.
Meanwhile banks have been showing nice profits over the past month. And we've seen glowing comments from bank executives telling us how their profit picture has improved.The problem is that they don't reflect the true financial condition of the banks. Martin Weiss of Weiss Research Inc. said: "the big banks' profit were actually bogus." Weiss goes on to say: "Citigroup's $1.6 billion in first quarter profit would vanish if accounting were more stringent." At Citigroup (NYSE: C), which received $346 billion in fresh capital and asset guarantees from the government, about 25% of its quarterly net income came from debt securities rule changes. At Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), the new standards boosted its capital by $2.8 billion dollars and augmented its income by $334 million. This won't last because Wells Fargo faces large loan losses from increasing home mortgage defaults.
According to Tavakoli, 40% of subprime mortgages are already 30 days or more overdue and defaults may go as high as 55%. So when will the banks' next time bomb explode? It could come in 2010 when regulators force banks to put distressed assets "on the books." So far banks are keeping billions and even trillions of dollars "off the books." Who knows what kind of losses are hidden among them. As we speak the lobbyists are marshaling their forces along with the Fair Value Coalition and are descending upon Congress to kill this new rule, just like they did "mark to market."
I don't know what's wrong with regulators or Congress that they don't see that unless banks put all of their "off the books" securities "on the books" that we will have another financial crisis. What is the greatest mystery of this century is why banks are not forced to do business like everyone else. They are the backbone of our economy. Sooner or later they will have to "bite the bullet" and let the chips fall where they may.
Do you believe that banks should put all of their "off the books" assets "on the books?"
Bilibala comments
I think there is a trade off between reliable and relevant.
Cost is more reliable while market value is more relevant & subjected to lots of unreliable, subjective & short sighted market movement.
By thinking using mark-to-market will provide the most reliable and relevant results, in itself, is stupid!! Only those financial analysts who don't know accounting will say that.
Unrealized gain / loss is not a loss, at least, it is not a realized loss. Current accounting rule and SOX requipment should be able to keep the corporation from hiding their loss.
Today, USA government change the rule to mark-to-model under circumstance is good. Not just because it will help the financial institution a relief to stop marking the assets further down. It also bring a balance between reliable and relevant, provide a more balance & more conservative balance sheet to shareholders, investors and to senior management team. So that they can have better decision making for future.
Econ data 09 week 23
Consumer market
- US 1Q productivity up +1.6% from +0.8% prior estimation, better than expect +1.2%
- US Apr factory orders up +0.7% from -1.9% in Mar, worse +0.9%
- US May ISM index up to 42.8 from 40.1 in Apr, same 42.3
- US Apr Personal spending down -0.1% from -0.3% in Mar, better -0.2%
- Consumer market looks good and more sight to stablize
House market
- US Apr pending home sales up +6.7% from +3.2% in Mar, better +0.5%
- US Apr construction spending up +0.8% from +0.4% in Mar, better -1.5%
- Find some pick up in here, more trend analysis need to be done
Job market
- US May unemployment rate up to 9.4% from 8.9% in Apr, worse 9.2%
- US May job pos down -345k from -504k in Apr, better -520k
- US 05/30 initial jobless claim down to 621k from 625k, same 620k
- US Apr personal income up +0.5% from -0.2% in Mar, better -0.2%
- CA May unemployment rate up to 8.4% from 8.0% in Apr
- Not that impressive to me, but it is in line with my expectation
- To explain why U rate up 0.5% while job pos down only 345k, I think it is because more ppl start looking for jobs while less laid off is happening.
- No matter what, with 9.4% unemployment rate, it will keep consumer off from spending
6.03.2009
Reitmans Canada 10q1 results
Overview
Reitmans is a Canadian ladies' wear specialty apparel retailer. The Company has seven banners: Reitmans, Smart Set, RW & CO., Thyme Maternity, Penningtons, Addition Elle and Cassis. Each banner is focused on a particular niche in the retail marketplace. As of May 2, 09, Reitmans has a total of 974 stores across Canada.
1q10 Results (vs 1q09)
1. Revenue: 1q10 Sales up 1.5% to $231.7M
Change from BUY to HOLD, fair value CA$14.8. It go up 61% to $13.05. I think there is better opportunity to BUY where else.
Reitmans is a Canadian ladies' wear specialty apparel retailer. The Company has seven banners: Reitmans, Smart Set, RW & CO., Thyme Maternity, Penningtons, Addition Elle and Cassis. Each banner is focused on a particular niche in the retail marketplace. As of May 2, 09, Reitmans has a total of 974 stores across Canada.
1q10 Results (vs 1q09)
1. Revenue: 1q10 Sales up 1.5% to $231.7M
- As per MD&A, management believe sales down mainly due to weaken Canadian economy & the cut on consumer spending;
- During fiscal 2009, RET’s net opened stores are1 stores
- 1q10 same store sales down 0.8%
- 2q10 sales should improve as summer approaching
- Gross margin dropped to 11.0% from 17.2% due to higher transportation cost and the rise in US dollar;
- Investment income down 67% to $727 due to interest rate drop;
- As US dollar fall significantly in 2q10, let's see how the gross margin will improve back to normal
- Total equity sightly down 0.3% to $478.2M. Price to Book Value is 1.78 as of Jun 3, 09.
- Long term debt equity ratio is 0.02. That is RET’s strength for future growth & resist financial crisis;
- Cash & cash equivalents down 29.7% to $150M from 4q09, looks consistent to 1q09;
Risk
- Clothing & accessories stores sector is a highly competitive sector. RET’s products do not have an economic moat in terms of design, material and cutting. (They do have a wide moat in certain niche retail markets.)
- Canada economy go weaker as consumer spending and consumer confidence continue to go down and unemployment rate rise to 8.0%
- RET’s cost of good sales will remain high if US$ remain strong;
Bilibala with Reitmans
- n/a
Change from BUY to HOLD, fair value CA$14.8. It go up 61% to $13.05. I think there is better opportunity to BUY where else.
News on May 09 mutual fund sales
Mutual fund sales in Canada:
- Look strong and solid in May 09
- Industry asset under management (AUM) up around 4%
- $$ flow in to long term funds (LTF) from money market fund (MMF) start from Mar and continue in May
- + $1.8B inflow to LTF
- - $0.9B outflow from MMF
- % of AUM in MMF continue to go down from 14.2% in Mar, to 13.5% in Apr and to 12.9% in May;
- % of AUM in MMF hit the bottom during the period of late 06 and mid 07 to 8%;
Outlook:
- Total AUM (from top 25 industry players) as of May 09 is about $565B, so MMF as of May 09 is about $72B;
- Assume 12 months market return on LTF & MMF are 8% & 1%;
- Assume 12 months' net sales on LTF excluded fund switch from MMF is 2%
- Assume % AUM on MMF will go down to 10% from 12.9% in 1 year
- Based on the above assumption, the switch from MMF to LTF in the coming 12 months will be around $11.2B. Plus LTF inflow excl MMF switch, the inflow to LTF will be around $21B
- This additional $21B should be able to push the equity market to a higher point or at least make it more stable compare to the past 6 months
Top 10 industry players in Canada (estimated AUM as of May 31, 09) per IFIC:
- RBC $101B
- IGM $89B
- CI $54.9B
- TD $49.2B
- CIBC $42.2B
- Fidelity $37.8B
- BMO $31.2B
- Trimark $27.7B
- AGF $20.9B
- Dynamic $19.6B
All these top players, especially the bank should be benefit from this switching trend and their fee incomes should be improved from bottom low.
6.02.2009
Berkshire Hathaway 1q09 result
Berkshire Hathaway is a holding company that owns more than 70 business mainly in insurance, energy. It also has a $49B equity portfolio which owns large equity stakes in Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, Proctor & Gamble and America Express etc.
1q09 results:
1. Total Reveune down 9.5% to $22.8B vs 1q08
1q09 results:
1. Total Reveune down 9.5% to $22.8B vs 1q08
- Exclude $5.0B & $1.5B investment & derivative losses in 09 & 08, reveune up 4.5% to;
- Exclude $1.8B retroactive reinsurance deal with Swiss Re in 09, reveune down 2.3%;
- As Buffett said, Berkshire is not immune from the financial crisis, but the reduction is reasonable or i should say better than peers and better than the overall consumer market;
2. 1q09 reported EPS (class B) -$33 loss from $20 profit;
- Exclude $3.2B investment & derivitve losses (after tax), net income down 11.7% to $1.7B
- Insurance underwriting profit up 21% to $219M. That's amazing, given most of its reinsurance peers are suffer with huge loss
- Unilities and energy profit down 36% to $203M mainly due to gas price down significantly in between 1q08 to 1q09
3. Balance Sheet
- Book value down 6.0% to $2,212 from 4q08, better than my expectation;
- Price / book as of Jun 1, 09 is 1.35. Altought it rise a lot from the "bottom", it still lower than company's historical average of about 1.8;
- Cash balance is similar to 4q08 at $25.6B;
- Net cash flow from opeartion remain strong at $4.6B or up 38.4% from 1q08;
Risk:
- Aging / retirement concerns for BRK's management team;
- Credit rating may fall derivative value / its equity holding continue to fall;
- Cost of capital may rise derivative value / its equity holding continue to fall;
- The conglomerate's nature makes it difficult and unclear to estimate the company's performance
Forecast 09
Based on 2009 equity market performance so far as of May 31 09, the equity market has been recovered a bit, so Berkshire should have profit in 2009.
Special deal should help to generate addition $1.7-$2.0B investment income per year start from 2009
Bilibala & Berkshire
- In Summer, i like to have ice cream at the Dairy Queen next to my office;
- Wirley Gum (Excel) wake me up whenever I feel sleepy during meeting;
- Bilibala is a value investor and follow Warren Buffett's investment way;
Comments:
BUY, adjust Fair Value to $4,866 from $4,640
Berkshire's stock buy & sell:
- Buy Burlington Northern, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Union Pacific, US Bank Corp......
- Sell Conoco Phillips, Costellation Energy.....
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)