Facebook tops Google as most visited site in U.S.

Bilibala: it is interesting to know who the top ranking of the most visited website in USA (from Jan to Nov 2010).

1. Google + related 9.9%
2. Facebook 8.9%
3. Yahoo + related 8.1%

It is more interesting to know how much revenues & profit that those companies generated by those visit (9M 2010):

1. Google $20.8B & $6.0B
2. Yahoo $4.8B & $0.6B
3. Facebook $1.5B & $0.0B (esitmated)

There is a huge different on whether you are an internet user or an investor. Investor investes in business that can generate high margin of profit, not popularity.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BT40320101230?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

(Reuters) - Facebook surpassed Google for the first time as the most visited website in the United States for most of 2010.

The social network site edged out Google.com with 8.9 percent of all U.S. visits between January and November 2010, while Google.com ranked second with about 7.2 percent of all visits, according to online measurement service Experian Hitwise.

Facebook's move to the top spot shows just how quickly the site has grown in popularity. Within the span of six years, Facebook has become the world's largest Web social network with roughly half a billion users worldwide.

Google.com dominated the top spot as the most visited website in the United States in 2009 and 2008. News Corp's MySpace was the No. 1 visited website in 2007. It is ranked No. 7.
However, when all of Google's properties are considered -- such as YouTube and email, for instance -- Google still reigns as the most visited site at 9.9 percent between January and November 2010. Facebook follows at 8.9 percent. Yahoo and all of its properties ranked third at 8.1 percent.

(Reporting by Jennifer Saba. Editing by Robert MacMillan)

Jobless claim down below 400,000

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BM24V20101230?feedType=nl&feedName=ustopnewsearly

(Reuters) - New claims for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected last week to their lowest level in more than two years, suggesting the labor market recovery was gaining strength.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the lowest reading since early July 2008, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was well below economists' expectations for 415,000.

The prior week's claims figure was revised modestly up to 422,000 from the previously reported 420,000. A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level data and described the report as clean.

"This adds to the idea that the jobs picture is improving ... this is another feather in the cap of the idea of recovery," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital in New York.
U.S. Treasury debt prices, already soft before the data, lost more ground, while the dollar pared losses against the yen. S&P stock index futures trimmed losses.

The four-week average of new jobless claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, fell 12,500 to 414,000, the lowest level since the week ending July 26, 2008.
The steady decline in claims in recent weeks likely indicates the pace of job creation picked up this month, after the Labor Department's non-farm payrolls report showed employers added a paltry 39,000 jobs in November.

The December employment data is due on January 7, and a preliminary Reuters survey shows economists expect non-farm payrolls increased 126,000 this month, but still not enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate, which is expected to have edged down to 9.7 percent from 9.8 percent in November.

The claims data also showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid rose 57,000 to 4.13 million in the week ended December 18, above market expectations for 4.10 million. The prior week's figure was revised slightly up to 4.07 million.

The so-called continuing claims data covered the survey week for the December employment report's household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived.

The jobless rate is likely to remain elevated as the improving labor market and general economic conditions lure discouraged job seekers back into the labor force.

The number of people on emergency unemployment benefits fell 77,741 to 3.71 million in the week ended December 11, the latest week for which data is available.

A total of 8.87 million people were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs.

Bilibala: the news is pretty ecouraging, let's see whether such decrease can form a decreasing trend, or it is just due to extra part time during Christmas consuming season.

Bilibala Finance 101 12/23/10

According to Warren Buffett, investors should focus on investing $$$ in corporations that has a strong economic moat. In other word, it can generate get more sales and earn higher profit compare to peers because of what they are.
1. With moat vs without moat - Intel vs AMD
2. Google vs Yahoo

Top holding in Canada 12/23/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.19 => CA$83.84 HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$47.82 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$41.10 HOLD

TD Bank to buy Chrysler Financial for US$6.3B, the auto leaders with 1 million customers, net assets of US$5.9B by its internal funds (existing shareholders not being diluted). I think this deal is good given the following fact:
1. Strong 2010 auto sales in USA (thanks to Toyota’s “collapse” & slow economy recovery)
2. Auto loan default rate normally lower than bank card loan & mortgage loan at 1.77% which improved by 77 bps compare to year 2009’s average & even it is still 15 bps higher than pre-financial crisis
3. Given TD Bank can use its strong deposit base to support this auto loan business, the interest spread TD Bank will be higher than Chrysler
4. Purchase price of $6.3B or 7% higher than book value looks low (normally, the average is about 2 times book value)
5. Risk of minimal or even negative earning if the prime rate continue to remind low while bond rate are all up cuz auto loans are based on prime rate

Top holding in USA 12/23/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY => HOLD
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• American Express share price down recently from US$46.5 to US$41.0 (climb back a bit) on the worry USA government will be more restricted in credit card service charges. Last week, VISA & Master Card share price got the hit as the regulator reform the debit card service charges.
• General Electric’s (I will use GE in below, it is how its own press release name themselves though) share price did not recover as fast as the big 4 banks, nor the giant industrial corp such as Caterpillar, the main reason is because of GE Capital – the finance segment @ GE.
  1. GE is an industrial / technology corp which manufacture energy / power / health equipments & devices
  2. With its strong financial position, they are able to borrow short term loan cheap enough and lent it through GE Capital to their customers in long term (just like u buy a car through finance & then Honda/Nissan/Mini Copper lend $$ to u)
  3. After the financial crisis, GE gets harder to borrow cheaper, therefore, its GE Capital interest spread got narrow down at the same time rise a potential cash flow issues (cuz they borrow in short term but lent it for long term)
  4. Investors has an ongoing cash concern on GE, that’s why its share price only up about 130% from bottom compare to say Wells Fargo which up 250%.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 12/23/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1=> HK$43.34 BUY => STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 BUY
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$7.4=>HK$6.73 STRONG BUY

• China Life Share price fall mainly due to China stock market, however, premium up 19% in 2010, market shares kept at around 40%, new business value remain highly profitable, interest rate trend is favorable to China Life.
• There are potential 1-2% interest rate rise in China next year, therefore, I’ve readjusted China Life & Shiu On Land’s NPV to reflect such impact.

Bilibala Finance 101

The corporations u invest in has names, please stop calling just its symbol, show some respect and call their name, because you are investing in business, you are not gambling.

Top holding in Canada 12/10/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 => CA$47.82 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$41.10 HOLD

I finally completed my analysis on Imperial Oil. Based on its estimated 2011 oil & gas proven reserve & 2011-2015 average oil price of US$95 per bbl with a production cost of US$45, I’ve readjusted my NPV to CA$47.82. Oil price dropped from US$146 in 2008 down to US$36 in 2009 and slowly claim back to US$88, consistent with Bilabial’s estimation. Let’s see whether it will which the magic equilibrium point in US$100 in 2011.

Top holding in USA 12/10/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• Government decided to extend the tax cut policy for another 2 years, positive impact to retail & credit market
• Initial jobless claim fall to 421k this week, looks like the trend is continue to fall from 450k to 425k, positive sign on job market.
• BOD of General Electric increase dividends by 17% to 14 cents per shares per qtr, a positive sign on industrial sector capital loan market, no change to NPV.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 12/10/10

Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 BUY
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY

Potential government intervention on real estate market and credit market makes the equity market looks flat compare to North America. On the other hand, I think those policies will keep the market stay healthy instead of “too hot”

Bilibala Finance 101 12/02/10

Only invest on business u know & have confidence on, it will help u stay with ur investment until the actual “harvest” period arrived

Top holding in Canada 12/02/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 BUY => HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$39.45 => CA$41.10 HOLD

• Last week, Ontario government propose the long term energy plan (LTEP), outlines the plan for Ontario power & transmission system for the next 20 years. Given the fact we may face a possible 24k MW deficiency in generation by 2025, the government plan to spend $87B to increased the MW from current 39k MW to 52k MW ($33B on refurbish the existing nuclear power plant; $27B on building new wind, solar & bio-energy power plant which will deliver 10.5k MW power). Given TransCanada invested heavily in nuclear & wind power, this government plan will have positive impact to TransCanada’s future earnings (Although we all upset cuz our electricity bill will double in 20 years – 3.5% per year)
• TD Bank release its 4q10 results, profit down 1.6% quarter to date & up 48.9% year to date compare to 2009. Excluding $121m 4q non-recurring tax provision, quarter to date profit actually up 10.4% which is on expectation. Deposit up 9.96%, loan up 6.67% and loan to deposit ratio down by 4.93% to 62.80% . I do not see any significant rise in revenue nor in profit for 2011. Given the fact that TD’s price earnings ratio & price per book value ratio are 14.40 & 1.66, it has already priced in.

Top holding in USA 12/02/10

USA
1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• Google’s price fall $30 this week because Europe is investigating whether its searching engine has anti-trust issue. Currently, with 80% market share in Europe, Google for sure dominant the online search market. It is fine if it is because of customers loyalty, it will be charged if it is because Google give favor to sponsor link and set barriers to other website / competitors. In the past, Microsoft had lawsuit with the Europe Commission for years and end up settled the $2.0B fine. Intel also being charged $1.4B in 2009 by EU. To me, those lawsuit can be settled by fine while Google’s dominate position will not change.
• Did anyone of u watch Disney’s Tangled? It is a fun to watch movie, the characters are more human (instead of black & white) with great music & storyline.
• November interest rate move up, I think is time to invest more on insurance company and reduce investment on government & corporate bonds

Top holding in Asia/Europe 12/02/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 HOLD => BUY
5. Shiu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY

• Irish finally got its $$ and the next bond maturity bubble in Europe is Spain & Portugal. Wall street analysts make it sounds like a crisis. In fact, those are simply finding new bondholders to replace their old bonds.
• I think Europe will struggle with slow economy growth for years. The way Europe handle financial crisis is completely opposite than USA. In USA, the quantitative easing buy t-bills, increase money supply in order to prevent deflation, USA increase spending & Debt GDP ratio to boost economy. On the other hand, Europe focus on cutting expenses, reduce debt & reduce money supply. I still think quantitative easing will be a better approach.
• 2 weeks ago I said Hong Kong stock market climb up from 19,000 to 25,000, then drop back to 23,000 is a reasonable adjustments. You can see a strong support at 23,000. I think it will rise back to 25,000 soon.
• I don’t think North Korean issues is a big deal, there will not be a war, but the conflict will continue until I dunno, until North Korean leaders “golden” father & son collapsed, um……..say few years later.

Top holding in Canada 11/22/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 BUY
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$39.45 HOLD

I am reviewing Imperial Oil’s 3q result, will share about it next time.

Top holding in USA 11/22/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

Irish financial crisis: Investors over-react the impact: 1) Irish’s fund shortage is due to broken of real estate bubble & creating mortgage bad debt in many Irish banks. So Irish government inject capital to banks and ran out of $$ in short term; 2) It is not big crisis because:

• EU has $750B emerging fund to support any member country in need;
• The shortage is not due to long term structural credit issues;
• The debt renewal amount is lots smaller than Greek, while Irish’s economy is better than Greek

I think it will settle this week.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 11/22/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 HOLD
5. Shiu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY

• China increased bank reserve ratio by 50 bps to 18.5%, historical highest & reduce next year’s borrowing target for big 4 banks, which will reduce R$350B credit flow in market. These are some softer policies to cool down the “hot” money, although it may hurt the potential growth of the bank sector – whose profit rely heavily on borrowing & deposit, on the other hand, it will lower the credit risk and decelerate the growth of the financial “bubble”
• I really upset & disappointed about the way China government handle with 趙連海, I don’t understand why, it is not political and if this (I mean if) is merely a civil case towards a corporation, and if the government don’t want to pay the compensation to all babies who got sick, that’s easy, just let 3 6 went bankrupt and re-open again 3 6 with the same management team few years later (of course, this is not ethical too). The government just don’t need to do such thing, it hurt everyone’s trust to China’s legal system and its political image in short term and if China continue this way, economy is everything and it is nothing, it will just lead the entire country, our nation, our home land, towards death. 趙連海 is really one of the righteous person in this injustice society, someone I should learn from (although I really don’t want to end up in jail) not just fighting for the rights on behave of his baby kid, but for the poor girl who got raped publicly in police station (make me think of the story in bible – judge c19-21).

Top holding in Canada 11/16/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC)
2. TD Bank (TD)
3. Imperial Oil (IMO)
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC)
5. Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP)

Shoppers’ Drug Mart: during the “silent period” of Bilibala Finance, I bought back Shoppers’ Drug Mart at $35.0 because I think the regulation change in prescription drug has fully reflected in the share price.

Top holding in USA 11/16/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG)
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC)
3. General Electric (GE)
4. American Express (AXP)
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS)

Walt’s Disney: after I sold Exxon Mobil, Walt’s Disney became Bilibala’s 5th top holding in USA. It reports 4q results according to Bilibala’s expectation (little lower than wall street). Its2010 EPS up 13.4% to $2.54m thx to the significant improve in Studio Entertainment segment (Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Alice in Wonderland helps Disney to make lots of $$). On the other hand, that also put a open question: can this strong box office continue in future years? Advertisement in Disney Channel, ABC and ESPN will continue to improve as economy slow growing.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 11/16/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL)
2. China Life (2628/LFC)
3. China Construction Bank (0939)
4. Total SA (TOT)
5. Shiu On Land (0272)

Market Fall: global stock market fall because of the following worries:

• Slow economy growth (every once a while, such worry came back)
• Inflation risk (will it come? No & Yes!! No, cuz consumer product index keep at around 2.0% and even in China, it is only 4.9%; Yes, commodity price rise like crazy. So it came and it will come, but in a non-tradition format – not in consumer product)
• Interest rate will rise (in China) (in order to balance between money supply, consumer product price and keep the borrowing / assets ratio low to prevent a potential bubble, I think a reasonable rise in interest is healthy to the economy. Under this interest rate rising expectation, China Life should be the biggest gainer cuz it will lower its insurance reserve liabilities.
• Default risk of the European PIIGS bonds
• To me, those worry are understandable but I think the true reason is a reasonable stock market adjustment. We should see the market stabilized at this point where S&P 500 at around 1170 and Hang Seng at around 23,000.

I’ve switched Exxon Mobil to Total SA, a France based integrated oil & gas company, cuz I want to increase my investment in Euro zone to have a more diversify portfolio while I think Total SA’s value is being more understated compare to Exxon Mobil.

Top holding in Canada 11/09/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC)
2. TD Bank (TD)
3. Imperial Oil (IMO)
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC)
5. Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP)

• C$ is at par, but I don’t think it will rise further beyond $1.02, as overnight interest rate will most likely keep at 1.0% and the higher the C$ will hurt international trade between US & Canada;
• Wewill have the Shoppers Drug Mart’s 3q10 result this week;
• Manulife Financial: 3q10 result is $1.1B lower than Bilibala’s expectation, cuz it wrote off $1B goodwill in related to its USA insurance business (no way I can’t guessitmate this kind of management decision. It is non-recurring, so, who cares!!). Overall, as interest rate start rising thx to the QE 2.0, Manulife’s performance for future quarters should look better.
  Manulife has 3 major shift in its business model:
  1. diversify by expand its asset management business;
  2. de-equity risk by increase hedge & reinsurance to 50%;
  3. de-interest rate risk by higher duration of its bond holdings.
  From a risk management view, I think it will provide a much smoother quarter to quarter results. However, from a business view, this is not a smart move:
  1. as we all know interest rate will go up eventually, instead of go down
  2. equity market will go up when it was at the bottom (in 2009)
  why should anyone earn less just to smooth things out? Just follow the crowd? Anyway…..

Top holding in USA 11/09/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG)
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC)
3. Exxon Mobil (XOM)
4. General Electric (GE)
5. American Express (AXP)

These days, after I moved to my new home, I did lots of home renovation: major appliances, lighting, windows, kitchen, wall, water system, flooring, gardening etc etc…… I think as house market become more stable now, those companies’ performance will improve. Based on my shopping experience these days, I found Home Depot’s services are better than Lowe’s & Rona.

Top holding in Aisa/Europe 11/09/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL)
2. China Life (2628/LFC)
3. China Construction Bank (0939)
4. Shiu On Land (0272)
5. HSBC (0005/HBC)

China Mobile: 3q10 revenue up 7.8% vs 3q09; earnings up 3.9%, ARPU down 4% to $72, # of customers up 11% to 569M. China Mobile still hold its dominate position in China’s telecommunication industry has 70.5% market share. However, growth definitely slow down from double digit to low single digit. To me, China Mobile’s current P/E ratio should be at least 14, which means its price should be at least HK$100. As it move to 4G, assuming the growth will go up from 4% to 8%, its value should worth at least HK$129 (in 5 yr).

Top holding in Canada 11/01/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC)
2. TD Bank (TD)
3. Imperial Oil (IMO)
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC)
5. Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP)

• Imperial Oil & Manulife Financial will release its 3q10 results this week.
• Bilibala will sold BYD Ltd. & invest more Manulife Financial today.

Top holding in USA 11/01/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG)
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC)
3. Exxon Mobil (XOM)
4. General Electric (GE)
5. American Express (AXP)

• Exxon Mobil net income up 55% mainly thx to oil price rise (bad for all drivers) and refinery margin increased, oil supply & demand kind of reach an equilibrium point, on the other hand, as USA, UK & Japan’s QE2.0 (print more $$) project, oil price should rise back to US$100 per bbl as what I predict 2 years ago. If so, Exxon Mobil should have room to rise back to US$75.
• General Electric net income up 29% while revenue down 5% mainly on energy infrastructure segment (that’s why stock price down cuz ppl focus on their revenue). Revenue down reflect the global capital expenditures on corporate infrastructure down during and after financial crisis, but as one will notice, GE’s profit margin continue to rise means, GE’s products & services are more profitable in a dollar to dollar basis and this trend has continue for the past two 2 years. I still need to complete the trend analysis.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 11/01/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL)
2. China Life (2628/LFC)
3. China Construction Bank (0939)
4. Shiu On Land (0272)
5. HSBC (0005/HBC)

• China Life: premium up 23% vs 3q09, total assets up 4.0% vs 2q10 while equity up 7.7% vs 2q10, as Shang Hang A stock break through 3k pt & interest rate up 25 bps, I think China Life will continue to increase shareholders equity value in 4q10 and so on, regardless of how much the reported net income is. In terms of stock value, I think today’s price is quite reasonable, not in big sales.
• China Construction Bank: results look awesome!! I still haven’t completed the trend analysis, will let all u know. It rise 13% from the day I came back to Canada, price over book rise to 2.43 and estimate price over earning rise to 10.1. um…………..still look reasonable but not in big sales.
• Bilibala will sold BYD Ltd. (not a wise decision to invest at 1st place, not cuz it is not good, but cuz I am not that familiar about the company plus I am worry commodity & labour cost will rise at least 10% per year which will hurt BYD’s earning) & invest more Shiu On Land today.

Shoppers Drug "strongly opposed" to Ontario reform

Bilibala: new rule will surely affect Shoppers Drug Mart's earning, on the other hand, as Canadian aging, the health expenses volume should continue to grow.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0712523820100407?type=marketsNews

TORONTO, April 7 (Reuters) - Shoppers Drug Mart Corp (SC.TO) said on Wednesday it is reviewing government reforms to the way prescription drugs are priced in Ontario, Canada's most populous province, and how the changes will affect the company's bottom line.

Shoppers, Canada's biggest pharmacy chain, said it is taking a fresh look at its strategic priorities and initiatives, and is reviewing its forecasts for prescription sales growth in fiscal 2010.

The Ontario government, looking to keep health care costs in check, said on Wednesday it will impose lower generic prescription drug prices under the Ontario Drug Benefit Program.

Shoppers Drug Mart said it is "strongly opposed" to the changes, adding it believes they will have a negative impact on pharmacy services and patient care in the province, "as it is inevitable that pharmacies will have to make reductions to their current service offerings".

The company said the reforms would require all pharmacies, including the more than 600 Shoppers Drug Mart pharmacies in Ontario, to review their operating, investing and professional practice models to ensure long-term sustainability.

Shoppers said it will report its quarterly results on April 28 and it expects to provide more information on its review at that time.

"These announced changes reinforce our view that in the long term, the successful players in retail pharmacy will be those with size, scale and an ability to leverage operating efficiencies," said Jurgen Schreiber, president and chief executive of Shoppers Drug Mart.

"Shoppers Drug Mart, with the largest integrated pharmacy network in the country and the leading market share, will be challenged in the short term to adjust to the changes announced today, but remains well positioned for the long term," he said. (Reporting by John McCrank; editing by Peter Galloway)

Google's Business Reason for Leaving China

Bilibala: really good article about Google leaving China if not smart decision, at least it is not a bad idea. As what I mentioned before, reputation is extremely important.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303493904575167290011111402.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

By MATTHEW FORNEY AND ARTHUR KROEBER
Google's high-profile departure from China's search-engine market has burnished the company's reputation for ethics. The company has won plaudits from various quarters for sacrificing its business interests on the altar of free speech.

But is the decision really so altruistic? Few doubt Google's commitment to free speech, which is particularly important to co-CEO Sergey Brin, who was born in the Soviet Union. But when considering whether other companies should follow Google out of China, it's worth noting that Google's withdrawal from China's search market makes good business sense.

The reason is simple: Google's business model requires that its consumers trust that their information will be absolutely secure. So when Google says it will "do no evil" and will never compromise on its principles or its technologies, the world must believe it.

Recent events underline the sensitivity of data security. The same week that Google rerouted its China search traffic to Hong Kong servers, the Yahoo email accounts of several China-based foreign journalists were hacked. Yale University in the U.S. is reconsidering its decision to use Google's email service campus-wide after faculty members questioned whether data would be secure. And University of Toronto researchers this week announced their discovery of yet another cyber-espionage ring operating out of China.

In January, Google gave two reasons for reassessing its China operations. One was the company's dismay with the Chinese government's ceaseless efforts to limit free speech on the web. The other was a sophisticated hack attack launched from China in December that targeted Google's secure servers in the U.S.

View Full ImageFred Harper

The hackers, Google said, had penetrated far enough into the Gmail accounts of Chinese human rights activists that they could read email subject lines. Significantly, the hack also "resulted in the theft of intellectual property from Google." That property is believed to be a chunk of Google's highly confidential source code.

Google redirecting search users to its Hong Kong servers because of censorship is easy to understand. After much soul searching, Google did agree to censor its search results when it launched its Chinese search engine in 2006, and was later distressed to find that Beijing's commitment to censoring the web grew stronger over time, not weaker. But what did the hack have to do with exiting China? If the attack had come from New York City, would Google have closed down its service in Manhattan?

To find the answer, remember that the Google products we see today, such as the company's colorful but clean search page and its pinpointed maps, may soon comprise just a small part of Google's suite of products. Google's long-term plan is to compete not just with other Web publishers and search engines, but with technology companies like Microsoft and Apple.
In particular, Google wants to dominate the cloud—the suite of servers and applications that will store much of the information that businesses and individuals today retain on their own hard drives. Instead of using Word and Excel and Outlook, users may choose similar Google applications, such as Google Docs, that will store data online and make it accessible from any computer or wireless device. When used on wireless handsets, those applications may run on Google's open operating system, Android, which will of course make Google's products easy to use. In short, Google wants to be the guardian of your private information.

That's where China presents a problem. Google compromised its principles when it censored its Chinese search engine, which was damaging enough to its reputation. If Google had stayed in China and was seen as setting up research and development centers, training engineers, possibly even training the types of people who would someday hack out chunks of Google's code, then users could fairly wonder whether Google might compromise their data for a buck. As one former Google employee in China told us, "If what Google does in China makes its data seem unsafe, then Google's global strategy is gone."

So Google had much at stake in the world, but, it turns out, not much at stake in China. Google earned roughly $300 million a year in China, nearly all of it from advertising. Yet one-third of that sum came from Chinese companies using Google to place ads outside of China, and Chinese companies will presumably continue using this Google service. So Google stands to lose around $200 million. That's less than 1% of the company's global income—a rounding error.

Of course, Google forgoes more than just online advertising revenue. China's second-biggest telecommunications carrier, China Unicom, just dropped Google's search product from its newest smartphones. But such opportunity costs can be considered small compared to the downside risk of maintaining operations in China.

It's likely that Google's top executives, especially Mr. Brin, were already reconsidering their commitment to China when the hack came in December. The intrusion tipped the balance, and also provided a nice public-relations hook (Google has since said that the hackers had not targeted the email accounts of Chinese human rights activists).

The lessons to be learned from Google's exit are not necessarily transferable to other foreign companies operating in China. Many of these companies have also compromised long-stated principles. They may choose to follow Google and leave. But they should do so knowing that Google's principled stand did not imperil its future bottom line.

Mr. Forney is president of Fathom China, a corporate research firm. Mr. Kroeber is the Beijing-based managing director of economic consultancy GaveKal Dragonomics.

FX rate US $$ continue to drop?

Question:
hi Billy, why US$ drops crazily? is it good to exchange? thanks.

Answer:
I don’t think the US$ will drop further, may be 1.02 to 1 Can $ and I think 1 to 1 is a pretty good equilibrium point in long run until interest rate trend start rising (not rise, but a rising trend to form, it will take at least 1 to 1.5 year from today.) Then Can$ may rise a bit further to $1.1.

You should convert at $0.92 when I told u ½ years ago, Now is kind of late. Always focus on better investment, not FX rate.

Question on RIM

Billy, how come RIM dropped from 78 to 67.90? is it good to buy? thanks

RIM dropped cuz actual below expectation, even though they said they will have a strong outlook. (I haven’t reviewed its quarter end press release, and I won’t, cuz I don’t need to know)

To me, it is good opportunity to buy if you believe on the following:

• Smart phone market will grow bigger from today’s 12% market share to 20-25% at least in 5 years time and finally dominate 90% in 10-15 years
• RIM will continue remain its leadership position for commercial users

Please be aware of the following:

• I am 100% sure the current individual users’ market belongs to Nokia and future belongs to Apple & Google, not RIM
• Blackberry is RIM’s only product, its app store is pretty small. Its portfolio is not diversified enough

Fair value may rise to CA$100 (based on the estimation growth rate), again you need to hold it for 5-6 years.

To me, Manulife Financial will generate higher return with lower risk.

China CCB may raise $11 bln via share sales

Bilibala: I don't think China Construction Bank need cash, if the cash is merely try to fulfil the high capital requirement by the regulator, I hope it will have a better use of it. Or else, it is not a great decision for the existing shareholders.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTOE63504620100406

SHANGHAI, April 6 (Reuters) - China Construction Bank (CCB) (0939.HK) (601939.SS), the country's second-biggest lender, plans to raise about 75 billion yuan ($11 billion) through share sales this year to replenish its capital, Bloomberg News reported on its website, citing unidentified sources.

CCB may raise as much as 45 billion yuan in a private placement in Shanghai and 30 billion yuan in a rights offer in Hong Kong, the report said.

The fundraising plan has won approval from the State Council, or China's cabinet, and is subject to revision according to market conditions, the article said.

Zhang Jinguo, deputy general manager of CCB's board of directors office, declined to comment.
CCB, in which Bank of America (BAC.N) owns an 11 percent stake, met on March 10 to discuss potential fundraising plans, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. [nTOE62P06S]
CCB Chairman Guo Shuqing said last week the bank was examining ways of raising capital but had no immediate plans to do so. [nTOE62S08A]

Chinese banks, including Bank of China (3988.HK) (601988.SS) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) (601398.SS), are rushing to raise cash after last year's government-directed lending binge weakened their balance sheets.

Manulife Buys JV in China

Bilibala: insurance company face aging problem, on the other hand, aging will give opportunity for asset management, that's why Manulife keep acquire aum business in the world.

http://www.benzinga.com/208438/manulife-buys-jv-in-china-analyst-blog
Posted on 04/06/10 at 9:45am by Zacks

Last week, Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) completed the deal to buy Fortis Bank SA/NV's 49% ownership in ABN AMRO TEDA Fund Management Co. Ltd. The remaining 51% ownership is owned by Northern International Trust, part of Tianjin TEDA Investment Holding Co. Ltd. The deal pertains to MFC Global Investment Management, the asset management division of Manulife Financial.

The new joint venture has been renamed Manulife TEDA Fund Management Company Ltd. It will continue to provide traditional retail and institutional asset management services for clients across the Chinese market. As of Dec 31, 2009, Manulife TEDA's assets under management were RMB 30 billion (US$4.4 billion). This represents a 45% increase from the prior year level. The transaction has received the necessary regulatory approvals.

The agreement to purchase the fund management joint venture in China was announced last November. At that time, Manulife said that the purchase was for a cash consideration of €105 million (US$156 million). The acquisition is expected to be accretive to Manulife Financial’s earnings in the first year and would have a negligible impact on capital levels.

The asset management and insurance market in China is attractive to investors for its growth potential. Manulife Financial is also growing its insurance business in China through Manulife-Sinochem.

Manulife-Sinochem is a joint venture company between Manulife (International) Limited (51%) and China Foreign Economic and Trade Trust & Investment Company, a member of the Sinochem group (49%).

Manulife-Sinochem, which began operations in Nov 1996, was the first Chinese-foreign joint-venture life insurance company established in the country. The company currently serves over 500,000 customers in 41 cities across China through approximately 11,000 professionally trained staff and agents.

Manulife's fourth-quarter earnings of 48 cents per share were below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 51 cents. The miss was driven by mark-to-market adjustments in real estate investments, model refinements to actuarial liabilities and tax adjustments.

However, the company benefited from equity market appreciation and increases in corporate bond yields. In addition, we think that such an expansion drive will considerably add to Manulife's scale and strengthen its position globally in the foreseeable future.

Shares of Manulife Financial increased 36 cents or 1.83% to $20.05 during the regular session on the New York Stock Exchange last Thursday.

AEGON restructure

Bilibala: pray that my company will not put my division on sales la.

Posted on 04/05/10 at 1:30pm by Zacks

Keeping pace with its ongoing restructuring program that began in 2009, Aegon NV (AEG) announced the sale of its funeral insurance business in Netherlands. Although the sale took place on Feb 1, 2010, it was announced on Friday. The company’s insurance unit has been disposed off to Egeria, a Dutch investment firm for €212 million.

The decision of vending off the funeral insurance business was in line with the Aegon’s strategy of reorganizing its product portfolio and getting rid of the problematic units. In February 2009, Aegon disposed off its institutional spread-based business in the U.S.

The runoff will significantly reduce the company’s exposure to credit risk and help lessen overall sensitivity to fluctuations in financial markets. We believe the sale is expected to have a positive effect on Aegon’s excess capital position and is projected to result in a modest book gain in the first half of 2010.

As such, the company has also been laying off a substantial number of its employees in order to rightsize its operations in the Netherlands. As a result, Aegon’s total workforce declined 7% in 2009 to just over 25,000 employees, mainly due to restructuring in the U.S. and the U.K., as well as the sale of real estate brokerage activities in the Netherlands and life insurance operations in Taiwan.

Earnings Highlights
On Mar 29, Aegon reported the filing of its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year 2009 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Accordingly, Aegon reported fourth quarter net income of €393 million, which came in substantially ahead of the net loss of €1.18 billion recorded in the year-ago quarter. The significant swing was primarily the result of improved earnings, realized gains on investments and lower impairments.

During 2009, the company realized cost reductions of €250 million, significantly ahead of the target of €150 million. Excluding the impact of restructuring charges, increased employee benefit expenses in the U.S. and currency movements, operating costs decreased in 2009 by 5% from 2008.

For full year 2009, Aegon’s underlying earnings before tax amounted to €1.2 billion, compared to €1.6 billion in 2008. New life sales declined to €2.0 billion from €2.6 billion in 2008, primarily due to weak market activity based on volatile market conditions.

However, gross deposits increased to €23.6 billion against €22.4 billion in 2008, while revenue generating investments increased to €361 billion against €332 billion in 2008. Capital position remained modestly strong.

Aegon continues to move ahead with its strategic priorities of reallocating capital towards business with higher growth and return prospects, to improve growth and returns from existing businesses and to reduce financial market risk.

Bilibala Finance Portfolio - Mar 10

Top 10 Holdings @ Mar 31, 10

1. China Life Insurance 8.4% M/M (reduce)
2. China Mobile Ltd (2.7%) M/M (add)
3. Google Inc 7.7% M/M (reduce)
4. Wells Fargo & Company 13.8% M/M (no change)
5. China Consturction Bank Corp 8.5% M/M (add)
6. Manulife Financial 3.9% M/M (add)
7. Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.6% M/M (no change)
8. Imperial Oil Limited 0.8% M/M (no change)
9. General Electric Company 13.3% M/M (no change)
10. Intact Financial Inc 6.1% M/M (no change)

Bilibala Portfolio by Sector @ Mar 31, 10

1. Insurance 32.3%
2. Telecommunication 24.6%
3. Banking 13.3%
4. Information Techology 7.0%
5. Conglomerate 5.8%
6. Energy 3.2%
7. Property 2.3%
8. Health 2.2%
9. Food 1.7%
10. Others 7.5%

Bilibala Portfolio by Region @ Mar 31, 10

• Asia 7 (add 1)
• USA 16 (add 2)
• Canada 10
• Europe 6 (add 1)

Investing in 39 corporations in total.

Performance & Market Stat @ Mar 31, 10

• S&P500 up 5.9% M/M, up 4.9% YTD, 2005-10 average return (0.7%)
• Toronto up 3.5% M/M, up 2.5% YTD, 2005-10 average return 5.2%
• Hong Kong up 3.1% M/M, down 2.9% YTD, 2005-10 average return 7.9%
• Shanghai up 1.9% M/M, down 5.1% YTD, 2005-10 average return 18.7%
• Bilibala Finance up 5.5% M/M, up 2.4% YTD, 2005-10 average return 24.8%

如果我是巴菲特(下) 主權基金

今日是股市創十二年新低後一周年記念日.

一年前, 負責投資/創作以及管理資本帳的 Bilibala 和神開圓桌會議(聽証照肺會). 耹証的有:

• 創天造地又在股市/債市/樓市作主作王的神/聖靈
• 負責分析和管理經常帳的 Billy
• 負責靈性關顧(In-spirit-or relation)和內在醫治的護士 Bilive (Billy 第三個較隱性的 character)

旁聽者有:

• 剛退休, 想投資又想置業的老佛爺
  
• 多多鬼煮意, 一直認為投資 = 賭, Cash = King, 肥嘟嘟的小得
  

第一回 求原諒 08年11月
老佛爺:「那些投資 5年能否升回?」
Bilibala :「不知道, 2-3年左右」
小得:「10年都不可能回升, 人家一早(20,000點) 就沽清離場, 識進要識退嘛! Cash is King.」
Bilibala 為單邊對沖虧損以及所投資一切企業的市價暴跌再次向神, 向 Billy & 向老佛爺求原諒:「我在 08年9-10月單邊對沖做錯了. 另外, 在恒生指數 32,000只沽出 3成股票, 在 26,000幾乎完全買回. 也許這也是錯.」
Billy:「所有企業內在價值不變, 雖然 26,000點再入市不是最好時間, 但也合理.」
Bilive(可以代表神):「單邊對沖做錯, 因為這在 Billy & Bilibala 理解下, 這是賭. 其他投資, 你不用求赦, 因為你沒有得罪神. 你也不是神, 無法預知未來.」
Bilibala :「主啊! 多謝你! 我以為會聽多 D話」

第二回 求救 09年2月
Bilibala :「資金被單邊對沖虧和資產暴跌抽乾, 情況極度危險. 主啊! 你肯救我嗎? 定還是像正義朋友般指責我貪心? 逼我沽清離場?」當時 Bilibala 處於極度驚慌之下.
Bilive: 「你肯認錯, 神可以用資金支持你渡過難關(延遲部份捐獻). 你每日尋求神, 我亦可以協助神替你 inter healing, 令你每日壓力得以舒緩, 回復信心. Billy: 由今日起, 你每日提交 Bilibala/老佛爺/小得/身邊所有人/市場的心理分析報告給神, 記念一切受災的人.」
Billy:「係! 我亦可以在經常帳抽調所有資金注資救你.」
Bilibala :「主啊! 多謝你! Billy, thank you!! 我會盡力做好投資, 不會再令大家失望.」
Bilive:「你投資賺錢是你的本份, 但神喜悅是因為你順服同聽話, 和賺蝕的關係不大.」
Bilibala :「主啊! 我當怎樣行?」
Bilive: 「1) 賺錢是你的本份, 這要繼續; 2) 神同 Billy聯手注資, 這等於從你手上買了資本帳的主權. 3) 單邊對沖是賭博, 你永遠不能再沾手, 不然, 神會將更重的咒詛臨到你; 4) 今後, 你仍是基金主管, 但 Billy 會由分析屍升為風險主管. 替我監督你, 一切都要詳細分析後才行動; 5) 我要每日替你做 inter healing 同加多親近主的時間 6) 善用你感性把握這機會去和身邊人身同感受」
Billy & Bilibala :「主啊! 你的僕人錯過痛過, 今後會完全聽命.」
Billy:「主啊! 我會做好分析, give Bilibala all my feedback. 只要我的分析比其他世界級分析屍/經濟屍精明準確, 我就歡喜. 至於賺蝕? 我不太介意, 反正經常帳怎樣, balance 也是零.」


第三回 All in 09年3月
Bilibala :「個市不斷插水, 點算?」
Billy: 「政府改會計制度, 之前加大 money supply, 注資銀行股, 買"毒"債, 減息, 借用房爛尾同房太美繼續借, GM 一破產就等於殺掉工會勢力, 基建計劃, 退稅/稅優惠 on 車/屋.......全部都是正面而且有實際穩定信心和一切資本帳的作用.」
Bilibala :「但所有分析屍/經濟屍都唱衰.」
Billy:「我不知他們為何唱衰, 我只做好分析.」
Bilibala :「人家說 dow jone 會跌到3,000; 恒指會跌到8,000, 又會打仗.」
Billy:「有這可能, 我看出恐慌心理充滿了你/老佛爺/小得/身邊所有人/市場所有人的心靈」

在那時 Bilive 每日為所有人及政府祈禱. 神又每日醫好 Bilibala 的恐慌.

Bilibala :「Let's all in!! Since everyone is fear and ignore the fact u just mentioned.」
Billy:「All in? 但假如dow jone 真的跌到3,000又會打仗, 我們連最後一點現金也沒有.」
Bilibala :「跌到3,000又打仗, 你一定失業, 銀行也破產, 你有 cash 一樣死. 左右都死, 當然 all in 不死的大企業.」
Billy:「如果 all in 後你失業又如何?」
Bilibala :「公司有注資, 死不了. 就算死, 也要我替它收屍埋數嘛. 現在市價同你分析價相差, 有4倍, 6年至少賺 3倍.」

Billy:「巴菲特剛出年報, 他說前景 ok.」
Bilibala :「讀完勁安慰. 感謝神, 這年報真是及時雨.」

於 是 Billy & Bilibala 在神同意下分十次 all in Wells Fargo, Google, Berkshire Hathaway, China Construction Bank etc etc. 又12 供 5 股 HSBC Holding

Bilive:「你賺 3倍 or 4倍, 用幾多年賺也可以, 你只要聽話.」

=> 由09年 3月開始, 創天造地又在股市/債市/樓市作主作王的神安慰了世人的失落, 鼓勵了世人的起初信心, 而這起初信心透過互相激勵的作用, 終於令經濟慢慢回復, 又令股市/債市奇妙地迅速反彈.

第四回 Rebound 09年10月

當 Billy & Bilibala 經歷過這場迅速下跌又迅速反彈的金融風暴後, 對神的認識同敬畏就油然而生.
Bilibala:「死! 投資講求果斷, 但如果 Billy 分析出錯, 又或者我太自傲, 將來再遇一次金融風暴, 我死定!! 主啊! 你要救我.」
Bilive:「投資幾乎完全收復"高"地, 今次 Bilibala 贏了漂亮一仗, 神也憺心 Bilibala 今後會變得目中無人/神. 所以, 神說要為他安排緊身咒s, 去保守他不致去得太盡.」
Billy:「僕人也有所準確, 安排了一個3-4年後才發揮作用的"炸彈", 到時, 可以令他略為放手.」
Bilive:「好. 但未夠. 神會安排. 你們等等, 繼續做聽話的小朋友.」

=> 09年10月, 神注入 Bilibala 資本帳的資金正式開始退市.
(Charge back on 08-09年要等到10年中才會發生)

入股浦發只是“增長故事”

Bilibala: as I said, regardless whether this is related to politic or not, it is a lot better than keeping cash.

http://www.finet.hk/mainsite/newscenter/CNFINET/343328.html

謠言終於止步。

3月11日，中國移動(00941-HK)董事長王建宙約見記者，表示入股浦發銀行的交易已經得到雙方董事會批準，下一步需要得到股東的同意，等國家相關監管部門批準後將具體執行。

同日，中移動公告稱，旗下全資子公司廣東移動以398億元人民幣認購浦發20%A股，中移動由此成為浦發銀行第二大股東。

這是3月4日王建宙宣布此項交易後再度面對媒體。數日來該項交易被國資委否決的傳言不斷。這或許折射出市場各方對交易並不看好。人們最大的質疑是︰中移動是否不務正業，或者是否充當救火隊員的角色。

“中移動並不是執行上面的意思去拯救浦發銀行，這完全是一個商業的行為。”3月11日下午，王建宙顯得氣定神閑，“其實，這是一個關於中移動能不能繼續增長的故事。”

確實，手頭持有巨量現金的中移動正面臨艱難選擇︰主營業務漸入競爭“紅海”，如何找到藍海成為當務之急。

現在王建宙正通過收購搭建一條足夠長的跑道，可以讓中移動的雪球滾得夠大。

非不務正業

對越界的指責，王建宙認為，這並不是不務正業，而是核心數據業務的延伸。

王的邏輯是，目前中移動靠傳統的增長方式雖然依然有相應的空間，但是此次與金融機構聯手的手機支付是為3G時代開闢的藍海，這是移動通訊數據應用業務的延展，手機支付將成長為新的百億級的數據應用。

目前，中移動的收入主要來自新用戶、話務量、數據信息業務三個方面的增長。

據王介紹，目前中移動的新用戶仍保持增長態勢，今年1月份增長了500萬，這在全球運營商中很難見到，此外由於2G用戶不需換號就能升級的拉動，新用戶中3G用戶增長迅速。家庭市場也是最近挖掘出來的新藍海。

在話務量增長上，目前仍保持了20%的增長率，達到每人每月500分鐘左右，但繼續提升的難度已經非常大。

正是在這種處境下，數據和信息業務的增長被寄予厚望。王建宙認為，5.27億用戶將產生的規模紅利最明顯的體現就是數據業務，此前手機音樂有3億用戶使 用，每人每月4塊錢，一年實現的收入超過100億，目前手機報已有幾千萬用戶，飛信也增長迅速，“現在計劃創造更多的100億元的業務。”

“當手機支付成為用戶的習慣後，也將大大減少離網率，保持收入穩定。”王建宙表示，根據中移動在重慶、湖南、廣東四地的試點經驗，今後在與多數大型商業銀 行打交道的同時，必須要有銀行的強有力支持，這需要跟一家銀行結成戰略合作關系，因為未來手機支付不僅僅局限在小額支付，還有手機轉賬和匯款等新功能的增 加，“所以要對銀行戰略投資”。

王稱，隨著手機支付的規模越來越大，今後除了手續費，很大一部分的利潤將產生在金融機構，入股銀行以後，就能分享金融機構實現利益，“所以從中長期，有很大協同效應，短期來看，中移動靜態的EPS可以提升2%”。

不謀求控股

“此次入股之後，中移動今後不會增加持股比例，也不會謀求控股地位。”王建宙告訴記者，此次交易完成後，中移動將派駐浦發銀行兩名非獨立董事，但他們只參與重大的戰略事項，並不參與銀行日常經營管理。

3年前，中移動收購了鳳凰衛視的19.9%，當時也表示不參與日常管理，不謀求控股地位。

王建宙說，中移動在尋找入股合作伙伴上花了比較長時間，浦發行由於規模適中，價格合理，相比入股大銀行，中移動的所佔股份和發言權都不會太小，“我們已經做了盡職調查，對於浦發行管理層和監管機制都比較滿意。”

他解釋此次之所以要通過廣東公司入股，是因為按照銀監會的規定，非金融機構投資金融業只能是由中國內地注冊的公司進行，而中移動的上市公司是在香港注冊， 因此不能展開經營，廣東公司既是中移動的全資子公司，又是內地注冊的公司，在一定限額內，根據銀監會規定，是可以經營金融業務的，“備忘錄中簽署的所有條 款都會符合監管部門有關部門投資的政策。”

“我們更看重的不是財務的EPS，而是中國移動自身的效益，盡管現在的規模還很小，但是未來很多的效益會很明顯，除了手續費，還會有商家給中移動的折扣、以及開發各種各樣的業務（電子轉賬、匯款）。”王建宙分析。

不過，王建宙認為，此舉並不意味著國家有關部門對跨行業融合的松口，跟浦發的合作仍是自己業務的延展，並且中移動不會投資其他非電信業務，比如地產和新能源等。

新引擎︰收購

通過入股浦發，中移動增長故事中又增添了一個新的利器——收購。

“我們準備把收購當成公司在前面三個增長之後的第四個增長極。”王建宙說，中移動正在尋找新的投資目標，但是重點一定是電信行業，它們主要是海外的電信公司。

3月11日，王建宙首次披露了去年入股台灣遠傳電信的內情。去年4月29日，中國移動以約5.27億美元收購遠傳電信12%的股份。遠傳電信是台灣第三大無線運營商。

據王建宙透露，目前遠傳電信項目正在推進，第一步將在台灣地區建立一家名為“縱信”的公司，該公司本身不是經營電信業務，但將來會作為投資遠傳電信的主 體，該公司是通過中移動在荷蘭收購的特殊目的公司（Special Purpose Vehicle）在台灣地區申請成立，目前已經得到批準。目前台灣地區公布的目錄當中，還沒有包括第一類業務，即基礎的電信業，王建宙希望，台灣地區在下 一個目錄中增加該項業務，這樣就可以快速開展業務。

此外，2007年2月，中國移動收購了巴基斯坦的巴克泰爾通訊公司（Paktel），王建宙表示，該公司是由中移動母公司擴容，目前已經完成擴容和重建，等條件成熟後，將由上市公司向母公司收購。

“收購的標準主要有兩個，即是否產生協同效應和是否能創造價值。”王建宙說。

目前來看，手機支付或許將成為最先創造價值的收購。廣東移動總經理徐龍告訴記者，目前廣東公司已經在手機支付上做了許多探索，現在的業務主要有手機短信、二維碼、手機錢包、手機一卡通，去年廣東移動的交易額已經超過7個億。

王建宙表示，目前手機支付的技術問題已經解決，主要的障礙在於打通地鐵、電影院、超市等各個終端的不同協議，不過不會太困難，目前在重慶試點，在市政府的推動下，快軌的乘客中有20%已經習慣了手機刷卡。

《21世紀經濟報道》徐志強 北京報道

http://www.stockhouse.com/News/FinancialNewsDetailFeeds.aspx?n=13216990&src=cp

TORONTO - Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX:BAM.A) announced a plan Wednesday to sell part of its stake in wood panel maker Norbord Inc. (TSX:NBD) in a secondary offering worth about $150 million.

Brookfield said it will reduce its stake from 73 per cent to about 53 per cent after the sale of the shares.

Norbord will not receive any cash from the offering.

Under the deal, a syndicate led by TD Securities and RBC Capital markets have agreed to buy nine million shares of Norboard for $16.70 per share.

Norbord shares, which were halted pending the announcement, were down 18 cents at $17.66 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday.

A Brookfield subsidiary is selling 8.68 million shares, while 320,000 shares will be offered by management of the corporation including Norboard president and chief executive Barrie Shineton and chief financial officer Robin Lampard.

The underwriters have also been granted an over-allotment option for up to an additional 900,000 shares held by the Brookfield subsidiary.

Norbord is one of the world's largest producers of oriented strand board and also makes particleboard, medium density fibreboard, plywood and other products.

Brookfield, which had been the largest minority shareholder in Norbord, stepped up last year stepped up with $144 million to back stop and take control of the struggling company.

中国超越美国并非必然

Bilibala: Good article. in order for China to be as mature as USA. I think at least take 20-30 years.

在1890年前后，中国经济与美国经济曾经有过一次邂逅，各自的经济总量分别相当于当时全球经济总规模13%。不过，两个经济体此后的走向却截然相反：晚清时期的中国经济已经千疮百孔，支撑古厦的柱子早已腐朽，只等外力的最后一击；而美国作为19世纪下半叶蒸汽技术（火车、轮船）的最大得益者，其经济在交通革命之下蓬勃兴起，对内铁路联贯东西海岸，对外货品倾销欧洲市场，开始向挑战英国的全球霸主地位迈进。

从地域政治上看，在经历了两次世界大战之后，美国才顺理成章地成为世界的盟主。不过，美国登上世界一哥宝座之路并不顺利。在上个世纪之初，其过度的信贷扩张、产能扩张，带来了近代史上罕见的1929年经济大萧条，GDP收缩了1/4，并有1/4的工人失业。在过去的100年中，美国曾经历过五次银行危机、四次石油危机、三次萧条、两次世界大战、一次疯狂的核军备竞赛，曾经历过大政府、小政府、无政府和白色恐怖的政府。在此期间，美国衰落的预言也曾一次次兴起，不过最终都被证明是不正确的。

这一轮经济危机，对美国的经济与金融业打击甚大，美元作为储备货币的公信力大幅度下降，美式市场资本主义不再被世人奉为经济发展的圭臬。美国经济似乎踏上了盛极而衰之路。
大国由盛至衰，也许是历史的周期现象，也许是最终的宿命，不过这种经济势力的此消彼长，取决于盟主的竞争力和挑战者的实力。

笔者认为，就目前而言，美国衰落论过于武断。我们必须将经济的周期性变化（包括发生重大的经济危机）与结构性竞争力的消长相区分。尽管美国在这轮金融风暴中损失惨重，它的国际竞争力依然存在。美国的科技创新能力，是世界一流的。美国将科技进步转换成企业盈利模式的能力，是世界一流的。美国企业及社会应付商业环境变化的能力，是世界一流的。另外，经过十多年的布局，美国跨国企业的利润中有半数来自海外。哪怕美国消费市场在未来十年增长乏力，美国精英企业依然能屹立不倒。至于美国在人才输入上的优势，这里就不赘言了。

日本GDP曾经在1970年占到世界GDP的13%， “Made in Japan”的产品全方位地挑战美国的世界霸主地位。但是，日本冲击世界第一宝座并不成功。石油危机等周期性变化对日本的长期竞争力影响并不大，但是结构性障碍却阻止了它的进一步上升。上世纪90年代资产泡沫破灭后，日本政府迟迟不愿推进银行改革，令信贷收缩长期化、板结化，窒息了经济发展的动力。人口老龄化，使得内需长期不振，公共负担日益沉重。日本已经失去了两个十年，正在进入第三个失去的十年。

中国在世界经济中的比重，十年前又重新回升到13%。全球化与生产外包，令中国成为了世界的加工厂，经济得以起飞。加入WTO与银行改革，又使内需日渐强大。近5年中国经济对全球经济增长的拉动力，超过了美国、欧洲、日本的总和。在这轮金融危机中，中国的银行没有受到直接的冲击，加上及时、有效的刺激经济措施，中国的经济率先复苏，似乎有了挑战美国一哥地位的资本。然而，如同当年美国的曲折成长，中国的崛起之路也必定不是坦途。

首先，我们必须将周期性因素与结构性因素相分离。2003年下半年开始的中国经济高速增长，几乎全部靠信贷扩张来实现。从重化工业产能扩张到房地产产能扩张，再到地方基建产能扩张，令经济出现一次次高潮，资产价格一涨再涨。资产负债表出现了惊人的扩张，但是生产力的提高却不大。信贷扩张是周期性因素，如同橡皮筋，拉得越长，最终的反弹必然越大。

中国经济最终能否持续地崛起，不取决于放贷数量的多寡，而是取决于生产力的提高。在过去30年中，中国的生产力提高基本上依靠体制改革和基础设施的完善，科技创新能力滞后，商业模式上的改变也有限。如果科技创新能力和商业盈利模式没有大的改善，笔者认为，目前的资产价格上升势头难以维持，中国挑战美国也只能说是一种梦想。

人口结构，是中国经济长期崛起的又一大障碍。独生子女政策，曾经对减轻社会的经济负担起到过一些积极作用，但是也制造出一个人类历史上罕见的断崖式劳动力供应缺口（战争、疫病原因除外）。劳动力短缺现象，会在今后十年全面浮现（假定经济能够维持8%以上的增长），不仅对出口产业构成打击，甚至会对中国的增长模式形成威胁。人口结构上的缺口需要数十年时间（甚至更长）才能修复，因此它对中国增长模式、财政负担、社会保障上所带来的冲击无可避免。
经济发展的短周期中，政策因素往往具有主导作用。但是，人口因素在长周期中显得十分重要。过去30年的经济成就与改革开放分不开，也与中国社会的人口红利密切相关。上世纪50年代末至60年代的婴儿潮人口进入就业市场、结婚生育、进入消费旺盛年龄的时间，与中国的出口起飞、房地产起飞、消费起飞的时间基本吻合。这批人还有十年左右的消费旺盛期，随后便会因退休而陆续放缓经济活动的步伐。

解决人口结构变化的根本出路，在于提高人均生产力水平。中国经济不仅要由出口主导向内需驱动转型，同时必须由靠人力、资金投入拉动发展向科技创新拉动转型。这个转型是可以做到的，不过前提是全面改善教育质量和尊重知识产权。中国超越美国并非必然。

业务多元化未必有着数

Bilibala: good article, on the other hand, as long as China Mobile will focus on its telecommunication business alone, the deal is still healthy. It just diversify its investment away from cash, not diversify its business/operation.

想饮牛奶，系咪需要买只牛？答案当然系 NO！所以笔者认为，想做手机银行业务(Mobile Banking)，又不一定需要入股，甚至买一间银行。现时它基本上已与多家内地银行合作拓展手机银行业务，故此，从表面资料推测，其入股内地银行，颇大机会是阿爷需要。

翻查数据，浦发银行自 2003年 1月至今，已 4次进行「增发」股份的融资行动，相信是内银股中其中一间再融资次数较多的银行。在融资了这么多次仍要再融资，自然难以再透过一般途径融资，寻找其他帮手亦是理所当然。 在过往历史，有不少成功的企业，由于入股或拓展至其他完全无关连的行业，引致最终失败收场，令公司出现巨额亏损。

美国著名的投资专家 Peter Lynch便常以「 Diversification」一词来形容一间企业将其业务拓展至与本业完全无关的领域，因而招致重大亏损。 所以 Lynch主张，有太多剩余资金的企业，假若资金没有更佳用途，倒不如以股息回馈给投资者，又或用以从市场回购股份，令股价上升，总胜于将资金胡乱投资至其他不相关之行业。

分散风险＝限制回报
假若这次中移动(941)入股浦发银行，纯粹是一项投资，不牵涉到其他合作，尤其是没有如一加一等于零的毁坏性情况出现，则以中移动目前强劲之现金流来看，相信投资于浦发银行的回报，应该高于中移动现时之现金回报率，故最终亦有轻微利好作用。

根据数据显示，手机银行业务是全球一个极高增长的行业，以中移动在国内庞大的电讯网络及较大比例的高消费用户群，相信很容易抛离其他对手，在手机银行业务方面取得较大增幅。

Lynch所讲的「 Diversification」，除了指企业投资于一些全无关系的行业而招致亏损外，他亦用以指出，投资者在投资组合中过度分散而招致损失。其中一个例子便是持有过多不同的股份，假若你将资金平均投资于超过 100只不同的股票，虽然其中一只出现亏损，对你的影响相对有限。但若其中一只大升，你所获取的总回报亦相对有限。同时，更大问题是，投资者持有大量不同的股票，当中大都是亏本的，因为赚钱嗰啲早已沽咗。

作者持有中移动(941)及相关衍生工具 作者谭绍兴为证监会持牌人士

McDonald's US Sales Getting Boost

Bilibala: yeah!! McDonald's!! I'm loving it!!

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201003101021dowjonesdjonline000443&title=mcdonalds-us-sales-getting-boost-from-breakfastsnacking

By Paul Ziobro, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- McDonald's Corp.'s (MCD) domestic same-store sales are getting the biggest boost from breakfast and snacking items, helped by recent launches of a $1 breakfast menu and the Mac Snack Wrap, McDonald's Chief Financial Officer Pete Bensen said Wednesday.

Otherwise, the fast-food giant isn't seeing anything "dramatically different" in consumer behavior during the last several months in the U.S., where McDonald's recently reported a slight increase in same-store sales in February, outperforming its competitors.

McDonald's average sale has also been "relatively stable" this year, but has taken "a little bit of a hit" during breakfast due to the new bargain menu.

Bensen, speaking at a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch conference, also said McDonald's expects price increases in 2010 to be below historical levels.

McDonald's typically raises prices between 2% and 3% each year to help keep pace with inflation in food and other costs, but Bensen said that any increase this year "will probably be less than that." The fast-food chain has spoken of diminished pricing power in recent months, though it comes at a time when commodity costs are expected to be benign.

"Right now as we sit, we don't see a tremendous opportunity to take price," Bensen said. "But the fact that our cost environment is so good, that's not troubling to us."

The Mac Snack Wrap, priced at $1.49, is also proving an attractive lure to get customers to trade up from the Dollar Menu. Bensen said 40% of Mac Snack Wraps sold are to customers who would have otherwise bought an item for $1.

McDonald's focus for the upcoming year lies in menu innovation, with beverages like frappes and smoothies planned for launch in the coming months, and improving service with new cash-register systems and double drive-through lanes with screens that display orders.

It's also renovating more than 2,000 restaurants this year. In the U.S., Bensen said McDonald's contribution to store remodels will likely be similar to the amount it spent during the installation of McCafe, when McDonald's paid for 40% of the costs needed to upgrade buildings.

McDonald's shares, flat in recent trading at $65.10, are up 24% over the past year.

-By Paul Ziobro, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2194;

China Mobile investing $5.8B in Chinese bank

Bilibala: the plan is great, 1st it is better use of its cash to invest in a bank instead of holding cash; then the demand on cell phone banking is in needed, according to China Mobile's CEO, this $5.8B investment will strengthen its 2010 sales by 2% which is a good start.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9EBNKJ80.htm

China Mobile Ltd., the world's biggest phone company by subscribers, said Wednesday it was investing $5.8 billion in a Chinese bank as part of a plan to develop mobile phone banking and business services.

Under the agreement, China Mobile will pay 39.8 billion yuan ($5.8 billion) in cash for 20 percent of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, the cell phone company said in a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange.

The two companies plan to work together to develop mobile phone services involving customer payments, bank cards, money transfers and other so-called e-commerce businesses.
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank is a mid-sized lender based in Shanghai.

Google Apps Store Challenges Microsoft

Bilibala: customrize app store is a great business to be in, but it works like a snow ball. The more app u had, more customers to d/l, more d/l, more programers willing to write more app. Can Google or Microsoft beat Apple? May not be, but sure each of them able to take a share from this growing pie.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10699822/1/google-apps-store-challenges-microsoft.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. TheStreet -- Google(GOOG) has opened up another front in its war with Microsoft(MSFT) by launching a new online store for business applications.
More on GOOG

Market Activity

In a company blog post, the Internet giant explained that the Google Apps Marketplace lets users find, deploy and manage cloud-based business applications. More than 50 companies are already using the Marketplace so sell applications, including small business software specialist Intuit(INTU).

Once installed to a company's domain, the apps will work like native Google applications. The programs can also interact with Google's Gmail, calendar and document offerings, Google said.
Clearly Google's new online store aims to increase the pressure on rival Microsoft.

Google and Microsoft are increasingly stepping on each other's toes in an attempt to open up new revenue streams. Microsoft has been charging hard with its Bing search engine, while Google's Chrome OS is a direct challenge to Microsoft's dominance in the PC market.

Like much of the tech sector, Google is hell-bent on boosting its cloud-computing story. Cloud services, which offer specialized applications, compute power and storage via the Internet, are said to be the next big thing.

Rival Microsoft also has its head firmly in the cloud. Earlier this year the software maker announced a $250 million cloud partnership with Hewlett-Packard(HPQ), and is also keen to speed up the development of cloud applications.

More recently, Microsoft began charging for its Azure offering, which is aimed at developers that want to create cloud-based applications. Microsoft is also planning to launch a second cloud initiative, dubbed Natal, later this year.

The challenge for Microsoft, though, is how to boost its cloud story without it eating into the rest of its business. Cloud services comprise much lower margins than Microsoft's traditional software sales.

Google may not face the same margin dilemma as Microsoft, although it does face fierce competition from the likes of Salesforce.com(CRM), which has racked up more than 72,000 customers for its cloud-based solutions.

Apple's(AAPL) App store has already harnessed the phenomenal demand for consumer applications, something that Google and Microsoft would love to emulate for business users.
Investors should expect to see some Microsoft/Google clashes along the way.

Ahead of the Bell: 'Alice' success good for Disney

Bilibala: Disney is in a nice pace during the economy recovery. To me, the postor of "Alice in Wonderland" doesn't look cute, but I will definitly go and watch "The Ocean" and "Toy Story 3".

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/03/08/business-mobile-telecommunications-us-disney-ahead-of-the-bell_7414936.html

NEW YORK -- Analysts see "Alice in Wonderland" as a much-needed hit for The Walt Disney Co., but note the returns from one movie aren't enough to move the needle on its financial results.
The adventure through the looking glass earned a blowout $116.3 million in its opening weekend - a record for a 3-D film and for a non-sequel.

Analyst Doug Mitchelson at Deutsche Bank ( DB - news - people ) said his tentative estimate was that Disney ( DIS - news - people ) could ultimately make $200 million from the movie. More importantly, he sees the movie as kicking off a recovery in content for Disney, "which has been in an 18-month dry spell with duds like Bedtime Stories, G-Force and A Christmas Carol."

This summer, Disney will debut "Toy Story 3" and "Iron Man 2," followed by the second "Cars" movie and the fourth installment of "Pirates of the Caribbean" next summer. A recovery in content can drive success for the whole company, he writes.

Tony Wible at Janney Capital Markets also noted that the success of "Alice" was a "much needed boost" for Disney, but said it wouldn't change his earnings estimates, which already factored in some returns from the movie.

He highlighted another weekend drama as more significant for Disney's prospects. New York-area cable company Cablevision Systems Corp. ( CVC - news - people ) reached a deal with the local Disney-owned ABC affiliate for retransmission, giving cable subscribers the signal back 14 minutes into the Academy Awards broadcast.

MetLife buying AIG's Alico unit

Bilibala: AIG's brand name was totaly distoried during the financial crisis, I don't think is smart to acquire any of its subsidaries. Insurance is a competitive industry, there are almost no product differentiate at all other than the corporate brand value and its credit rating.

Policyholders are willing to pay higher cost of insuruance for a famlious and reliable brand. Once its brand name being distoried, there will be minimum value of new business.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62622120100308?feedType=nl&feedName=usbusinessearly

MetLife said on Monday that it would pay AIG $6.8 billion in cash and about $8.7 billion in equity for its American Life Insurance Co (Alico) unit, confirming an earlier Reuters report.
Founded in 1921, Alico sells life, accident and health insurance as well as retirement and wealth management products in more than 50 countries. The deal will help MetLife, already the largest life insurer in the United States and Mexico, diversify revenue by product, distribution and geography.

MetLife will get a boost in Japan, the world's second-largest life insurance market, which accounted for 70 percent of Alico's pre-tax operating income in fiscal year. Alico will also strengthen MetLife's position in Europe and move it into a top five market position in many emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.

MetLife expects the deal to increase its 2011 operating earnings per share by 45 cents to 55 cents, excluding one-time expenses of 12 cents. It sees annualized post-tax cost savings of $50 million to $75 million.

"Rarely does one come across a deal that has such a strong strategic fit and is also such a financially attractive proposition," MetLife Chief Executive Robert Henrikson said during a conference call.

Still, such a large deal comes with risks, said Clark Troy, a senior analyst at Aite Group.
Alico's strength in Japan also ties MetLife's fortunes to an aging society with a huge public debt overhang, he said.

"If (Japan) falters or slips back into deflation, MetLife might face challenges growing revenue," Troy said in an e-mail late Sunday, before the deal was announced.

FED PAYDAY
The deal comes after AIG agreed to sell its Asian life unit, American International Assurance (AIA), to Britain's Prudential for $35.5 billion, the largest insurance sector deal ever.

The AIA and Alico deals will allow AIG to repay the U.S. government about $31.5 billion in cash, with more expected as the insurer sells Prudential and MetLife securities over time.

AIG will use the $6.8 billion in cash from the Alico deal to redeem part of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's $9 billion preferred interest in a vehicle that holds the unit.

The proceeds from the two deals should help AIG pay down all of its Fed debt, but it will still leave the government holding roughly $47 billion in equity investments, including the amount drawn under a $30 billion equity line. The government will still have a nearly 80 percent stake in AIG.

To untangle itself from AIG, the government is likely to follow a strategy similar to what it has used with Citigroup Inc (C.N) in a process that will probably take years.

The sale of Alico comes after months of negotiations and became possible after the New York Fed, advised by Morgan Stanley (MS.N), agreed in March 2009 to swap its debt into equity in special purpose vehicles that AIG created to hold AIA and Alico.

Early last year, MetLife offered about $11 billion for the unit, but the price went up in the months after March 2009.

METLIFE STAKE
The equity portion of the price consists of 78.2 million shares of MetLife common stock valued at $3 billion, 6.9 million shares of contingent convertible preferred stock valued at $2.7 billion, and 40 million equity units with an aggregate stated value of $3 billion.

The common stock and equivalents would give AIG a 14 percent ownership in MetLife, MetLife Chief Financial Officer William Wheeler said.

The equity units are set to convert into common shares roughly three years after closing, Wheeler said. Taking those into account, AIG's ownership in MetLife would go above 20 percent, sources familiar with the matter said on Sunday.

But Wheeler said he expected AIG to start selling the shares as soon as it could under a lock-up agreement.

"I am not sure how much shares they will own at any one time, but I suspect it won't get close to 20 percent," Wheeler said.

AIG must vote its shares in proportion to the way the rest of MetLife's outstanding shareholders do, Wheeler said.

MetLife expects to finance the cash portion of the deal with issuances of $3.1 billion in senior debt and $2 billion of common stock, as well as $1.75 billion in cash on hand.

Both boards have approved the transaction, which the companies expect to close by the end of 2010.

Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX) was lead adviser to MetLife, which was also advised by Barclays Capital (BARC.L), Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC.N), Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and HSBC (HSBA.L).

AIG is being advised by Citigroup, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Blackstone Group (BX.N), according to several sources.

AIG shares were up 5.3 percent to $29.58, while MetLife was up 5.1 percent to $40.90, both during morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

(Reporting by Paritosh Bansal; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn, Dave Zimmerman and John Wallace)

CCB's outlook on 2010 new lending

Bilibala: giant bank is better than small/mid bank even in China, a country where huge banks have much more social responsibity & political concern than the commerical banks. Sometimes, conservative can be a good character, a little lower return with much lesser risk.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE62703Q20100308

Govt targets 19 pct loan growth for banking sector (Adds details, background)
BEIJING, March 8 (Reuters) - China Construction Bank (0939.HK), China's No.2 bank by assets, said its new lending will grow by a modest 10 percent or more this year, as banks slow new loans growth following a lending binge in 2010 under Beijing's economic stimulus programme.

CCB Chairman Guo Shuping gave Reuters the forecast on the sidelines of the National People's Congress in Beijing on Monday, adding that the bank expected its provision ratio for non-performing loans to remain above 170 percent this year.

Chinese banks posted a record 9.6 trillion yuan ($1.406 trillion) in new loans last year, fuelling concern they were sowing the seeds for a new crop of bad debts down the road.

The government has targeted 7.5 trillion yuan in new lending this year, down from last year but a figure that would still lift the industry's overall outstanding loan volume by 19 percent from the end of 2009.

CCB (601939.SS) and China's other biggest lenders including ICBC (1398.HK)(601398.SS) were relatively conservative in their lending last year compared with mid-sized and smaller banks, which sharply turned up lending in response to Beijing's 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan aimed at boosting consumption.

As a result, many of those smaller banks are believed to need new capital to boost their adequacy ratios.

China CITIC Bank (0998.HK)(601998.SS) is actively exploring raising capital [ID:nBJC002509], and China Merchants Bank (3968.HK)(600036.SS) is launching a $3.2 billion rights issue, but this week said it should require no further capital raising for at least the next three years. [ID:nBJB003703]

Bank of Communications (BoCom) (3328.HK) (601328.SS), China's fifth-largest lender, said last month that it planned to raise as much as 42 billion yuan via a rights issue in Shanghai and Hong Kong to bolster capital.

巴(不得)飛凸

周六晨早近 8點, 不是做懶訓豬, 而是 refresh 呀 refresh 在床邊的 laptop. 皆因今日(2/28)是股神巴菲特主理的公司 Berkshire Hathaway Inc(巴郡)派成績表和巴菲特出 chairperson's letter 的大日子. 已經和巴菲特作了三年* 伙伴(股神是這樣稱呼其小股東)的 Bilibala 自然要先睹為快.* Bilibala 當其 B股$4,900跌至 $2,300 時曾分了大半年手 :P還記得上年今日, 當所有人信心跌到谷底, 當所有數據同股/債市跌到似乎仍未見底的時侯. 神就借著巴郡的年報大大安慰了 Billy 和 Bilibala. Bilibala 在今年巴郡的年報又學習了不少:

• 巴菲特對 book value 的理解: 巴菲特認為 book value 雖然無法完全反映甚至低估其內在價值, 但比起隱含市場心理, 波動非常的 stock price/market value 更反映企業的成果. 金融風暴, 傳媒集中佈導巴菲特如何老貓燒鬚, 巴郡book value 跌 9.6% . 忘記了同期 S&P 500 跌了 37%. 兩年打下來, 巴郡book value升8.3%, S&P 500 仍是跌20.3%. 可見傳媒愛嘩眾取寵, 有時非常誤導
• 對企業收購合併(即投資企業)的合理值有新體會. 依家收購合併以股換股方式合併, 何謂合理收購價變得難以計算. 但巴菲特有他獨到見解. 他還笑言有次他投資的大銀行高價收購一迷你銀行. 巴菲特:「似乎太貴」那大銀行 CEO:「不打緊, 那只是間迷你銀行, 無關痛癢.」巴菲特的拍擋芒果:「我們是否因為吠我們的惡狗是狗仔而非聖班納而鼓掌?」(哈哈)

巴菲特亦好謙虛, 值得牙刷刷的 Bilibala 羞愧和學效:

• 之前GEICO的員工反對我(巴菲特)開信用咭生意, 我不聽勸, 結果虧損. 我一直以為我越老越聰明, 原來我只是老了
• 假如我, 芒果和 Ajit (Mid America Energy CEO)坐沉船一齊掉下海, 而你只能救一個, 請你救 Ajit. 因為你最需要他
• Netjet 由收購至今虧損不少, 負債不斷加, 沒有及時向你們報告是我的不是
• CEO應為企業過失負 100% 責任

巴郡仍有 $5B(稅後) derivative liabilities, 除掉浮盈 net earnings 每年大約是$4B, $56B的股票未來 5年大約會再升 $12B(稅後), 再加 $8B 新股, 所以, 5年後 shareholders equity 應有 $180B. 以 1.6倍 book value計, 巴郡值 $288B, 較現在$193B 市值高 49%, 每股內在值應是 US$123.78.

中國移動認購浦發銀行

Bilibala: Short term impact, should be a good opportunity to buy more. I think it is a better use of the extra cash China Mobile had

財華社深圳新聞中心
近日盛傳可能斥資400億元認購浦發銀行(600000-CN)約22億股定向增發股份的中國移動，股價今早初段逆市走弱，現跌2.28%至72.95港 元，成交826萬股。中國移動發布公告確認，已就入股浦發銀行的規模達成協議，將通過投資浦發銀行擴展移動電子商務業務；但將專注於開發增值服務。中國移 動同時表示不排除與其他銀行合作的可能性。

有市場評論認為，中國移動開發移動電子商務業務是遠離主營業務的多元化做法，難以量化可能獲得的收益。長線投資者將中國移動作為公用事業類股，原因是3.7%的歷史股息收益率，而入股浦發銀行所帶來的大規模資本支出也可能擊碎投資者對該公司提高股利支付比率的預期。

但大華繼顯則稱，中國移動之前曾談及將在2010年推出高附加值的移動支付業務；與浦發銀行在移動支付領域的合作不但能夠幫助中國移動解決監管問題，還能夠獲得交叉銷售效應。

China Life Jan 10 sales up

Bilibala: China Life's sales is growing in a nice double digit pace as the insurance penetration improved, on the other hand, I think the stock price has reflect this growth expectation. Therefore, the future rise will rely heavily on investment performance.

http://www.chinavestor.com/life-insurance/71392-china-life-january-sales-up-14-percent-to-62-billion.html

March 3, 2010 (Chinavestor) China Life Insurance (NYSE:LFC), the largest Chinese life insurer, reported premiums income, or revenue from sale of insurance policies, for the month of January 2010 as follows. Total premiums income from 1 January 2010 to 31 January 2010 was about RMB41.8 billion ($6.119 billion).Given that 2009 January sale of insurance policies was RMB36.6 billion ($5.3579 billion), January 2010 numbers represent an increase of 14.2% from last year data.

Another important development to notice is that January 2010 data is by far the best achieved by China Life Insurance (NYSE:LFC) in the last 13 months as the following chart testifies.

Shares of China Life Insurance (NYSE:LFC) have been under weather along the uncertain outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index. China Life derives a significant portion of total net income from investment returns related to the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index. China Life Insurance (NYSE:LFC) has a significant investment in index heavy weight stock such as Petrochina (SHA:601857) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (SHA:601398).

If China Life Insurance (NYSE:LFC) can demonstrate strong revenue growth - as is the case fro January - stock price appreciation will follow.

造金融保险业航母观海听涛

⊙记者 卢晓平 ○编辑 王颖

他的儒雅睿智，早有耳闻。相识几年，更有深刻感受。

　　在他北京金融街(10.95,0.16,1.48%)中国人寿(27.71,-0.19,-0.68%)大厦的27层办公室里，一幅刚劲有力的书法“观海听涛”透露出拥有者的眼界胸怀……

　　他是位和蔼可亲的睿者，又是有着强烈社会责任感的企业家。他带领占据国内保险市场半壁江山的金融保险集团，成为我国保险行业唯一的“世界双500强”企业。

　　他令全球市值最高寿险公司的中国人寿，积极应对金融危机，连续5年取得了骄人业绩。
　　我们之间短信往来，我写的是中文，他回的是英文；我们谈论的话题，从金融到经济社会无所不包，一个有着丰富金融保险经历的他，在精炼话语中，无不透露出善于学习、与时俱进的修养。

　　他的办公室，一个地球仪迎接着每日朝霞。

　　全球视野防范风险
　　有过10多年海外留学和工作经历的杨超，考虑问题时的全球视野已经形成习惯。中国经济早已融入世界，中国金融保险与世界相互融合。亲身经历1997年亚洲金融风暴，让他养成高度的风险防范意识和稳健经营作风。

　　“国际金融危机背景下，保险业的深刻变革为公司的发展提供了难得的外部机遇”，他在危中寻机。

　　有据为证：去年，在对外投资中，国寿稳妥推进国际化进程，没有出现重大损失，而在危机的影响逐渐确定的情况下，果断出手，及时调整资产战略配置，增加权益投资比例，特别是抓住境外金融机构大规模减持中资银行股份的时机，成功购进美国银行出让的建行H股股票，创造了香港证券市场有史以来最大规模的大宗交易。正是这样一种进退有度的经营风格，才在险象环生的世界经济形势和国际金融危机面前保持平稳健康发展。

　　数据也说明：去年，国寿集团总保费收入达到3221.18亿元(未经审计)，实现了平稳增长；总资产达到1.56万亿元，较年初增加2707.83亿元，占全行业总资产的37.7%；上市公司业绩预增超50%。品牌价值高达824.37亿元，在国内金融类企业中名列第3位。

　　敢于大浪淘金，不等于无视风险。令人关注的是，杨超根据科学发展观，提出了“不怕险、忌冒险、善控险、能化险”的科学风险观。防风险是手段，最终目的是为了提升抗风险能力，提高综合经营管理能力，这才是目的。他强调，2010年仍要切实加强风险防范，及时、准确把握国际国内经济金融的发展形势，在判断和决策上不能出现大的失误。目前我国经济回升向好的基础还不稳定、不巩固、不平衡，特别是结构性矛盾仍很突出，需求不足和供给结构性矛盾并存。

　　“最近中央反复强调，国际金融危机并没有完全过去，消除危机的影响更是一个长期的过程。这将直接或间接地影响到公司的发展。对此，我们一定要有危机和忧患意识，把问题想得复杂一些，把困难考虑得多一些，把应对措施准备得更加充分一些”，他强调。

　　做久做优求稳健经营
　　几年前，在粗放式发展成为潮流的时候，杨超逆势考虑的是做强做大。如今，他又往前多走了一步，做久做优成为首选。

　　也许，是曾经的学医经历让他的思维缜密，求真务实。

　　“我学过医，人的肌体要想健康长寿，绝对不要逞能一时，否则会在肌体内打下烙印，到一定时候必然暴露，危及生命”，杨超很认真。因为，只有防范风险、稳健经营，才能实现平稳健康发展。只有科学发展、壮大实力，才能经受住严峻考验。

　　他强调，要持续推进结构调整，进一步完善推进结构调整的财务、预算、人力、考核等政策，注意保持政策的连续性、稳定性和严肃性，有效发挥对结构调整的激励、约束和导向作用；要科学调整，不搞“一刀切”，尤其要从负债业务与资产业务的结合上全面分析、统筹研究结构调整问题，使保险产品结构、负债结构更好地适应资本市场、货币市场、利率政策的变化。

　　“要正确处理发展与调整的关系，不能离开发展主题搞调整、停下发展脚步搞调整、脱离客户需求搞调整、不顾市场竞争搞调整。”他说。

　　他给出调整框架：全面调整，调整优化业务结构、渠道结构、城乡结构、效益结构和队伍结构。其中在业务结构方面，要大力发展风险保障型、长期储蓄型和非车险等优质业务，努力提高优质业务的比重；在渠道结构方面，要实施多渠道发展策略，明确不同渠道的发展定位，着力构建优势互补、良性互动、协调发展的渠道新格局；在城乡结构方面，实行差异化发展策略，专门制定针对特定区域市场、适应巩固和夺回城区市场主导地位需要的差异化产品政策和考核政策，务必在提升城区市场竞争力方面取得实质性进展。

　　工夫不负有心人。他的果敢敏捷使得中国人寿创造了奇迹。

　　去年，国寿经营风险得到有效防范，发展基础更加巩固。财务、业务管控不断强化。依据集团整体盈利目标分解下达各直属单位预算，充分发挥了预算的管控和导向作用等；着力加强了对外部复杂形势、资本市场态势及其应对策略的分析研究，有效防范了决策风险和投资风险；针对资本市场大幅下滑导致分红水平和万能险结算利率的下降情况，在行业退保支出增加的情况下，寿险公司退保金额同比减少15.12%，退保率为3.18%，同比下降1.2个百分点，有效防范了非正常退保风险。

　　天时地利人和人为先
　　人是第一生产力，杨超现在不仅看重个体，更重视群体力量。
　　春节前，温州。中国人寿员工脸上洋溢着喜庆。温州银海团队得到了“中国人寿第一团队”的称号，成为中国人寿乃至中国寿险营销战线的一面旗帜。

　　在授旗现场，我看见员工们在笑、杨超在笑。员工笑中透露出一份收获喜悦；杨超的笑中，包含一份深情和卓识。

　　中国人寿有1万8千余个营销团队，为什么将此殊荣给了温州？
　　杨超一语道破，当前，中国人寿已经站在打造国际顶级金融保险集团，争创国际一流寿险公司的新起点上。应以银海团队为榜样，进一步解放思想、夯实基础、开拓进取，全面提升团队的综合管理水平和团结协作能力。同时，各营销团队要利用中国人寿这个最大的市场作为大舞台，依赖中国人寿这个后台，努力搭建好营销伙伴展业创富的平台。

　　面对新的市场竞争环境，通过特殊的春节慰问活动，中国人寿管理层将新阶段在全系统提倡什么、宣传什么、鼓励什么表露无遗，同时也向市场传递了一个鲜明信号――中国人寿这艘巨型航母将从基层团队转型入手开始新的远航。

　　在杨超看来，万丈高楼平地起。没有基层的因子铺垫，哪里有高楼的辉煌。要想航母升级换代，不从基层抓起谈何容易。况且，当前市场主体越来越多，集团化竞争的特征越来越明显，大中城市竞争更趋于白热化，国寿巩固和夺回城区市场的任务十分艰巨，并且竞争区域正逐步向县域农村市场延伸，给公司带来了很大挑战。

　　据了解，这支团队连续9年蝉联全国寿险销售团队新单保费规模/佣金第一名，创造了中国人寿团队发展史上的奇迹。按照杨超的话：实现公司利益最大化和个人价值最大化的高度统一。

　　除了基层团队，在杨超眼里，集团上下整体人才队伍系统建设更显迫切。
　　他告诉记者，2010年要进一步完善选人用人机制。重点是要强化对领导干部的考核评价、激励约束和选拔任用；要突出科学发展成绩，将经营绩效分析、经济责任审计、组织考察相结合，将定期考察、年度考察和任期考察相结合，把政治上靠得住、工作上有本事、作风上过得硬、职工群众信得过的干部选拔上来。

　　另外，将全方位加强“三支队伍”的培养管理，着力加强管理干部队伍的建设，造就一批专家型技术人才；注重对销售队伍的培养管理，逐步建立一支满足大中城市业务发展需要和适应高端客户拓展需求的专门销售队伍；要重视后备干部的岗位锻炼，力争用三年时间把地市级分公司、县支公司负责人轮训一遍。

　　杨超是感情丰厚的人，在去年地震灾区看望广大员工时，他落泪了。带去的不仅是温暖，还有大量灾区急需的物品。但他同时又是原则性很强的人，强调坚持勤俭节约办企业，严格控制员工特别是管理人员增长，反对铺张浪费，养成勤俭办企业的良好风气。

　　国寿要为今后翱翔打下坚石，人是本。

　　整合求飞跃
　　喜欢打网球的杨超，身体素质不是一般人所能比拟的。充沛的精力，不仅使他经常忙碌奔波于基层，而且，养成了雷厉风行，开拓创新的办事作风。

　　整合出效益，创新求发展。杨超当然没有忽视这一点，他有一套《中国人寿资源整合发展规划》。

　　今年公司工作任务中明确，要着力加大全系统资源整合力度，完善资源整合机制。要强化集团公司在资源整合中的领导组织作用，完善总公司层面的资源整合机制，建立省级分公司及以下机构的资源整合组织体系。在销售资源整合上，要完善互动业务体制机制，积极探索寿险、财险、养老险各级公司联合拓展大客户的有效模式；在客户和服务资源整合上，要尽快建立客户资源共享平台……

　　整合带来了意想不到的收效，公司发展质量和效益不断提升。

　　从去年的业绩看，承保盈利能力得到提升，另外，资产管理能力不断提高。目前，投资收益仍然是当前全系统盈利的最主要来源，资产公司在整个集团的发展中起着举足轻重的作用，因此，下一步的重点是要切实承担起提高投资收益的重任，加强对形势、政策和市场的研究，科学配置资产，准确把握市场机遇，在确保防范风险的前提下，为提升全系统的盈利水平作出更大贡献。

　　从目前国寿整体架构看，寿险、财险、养老险等保险体系布局齐备，从金融架构看，资产管理、股权投资、不动产投资、参股银行、参股信托等等已经建立或在建立过程中，一个保险金融集团航母在新时期正昂扬起帆。