RIM dropped cuz actual below expectation, even though they said they will have a strong outlook. (I haven’t reviewed its quarter end press release, and I won’t, cuz I don’t need to know)
To me, it is good opportunity to buy if you believe on the following:
- Smart phone market will grow bigger from today’s 12% market share to 20-25% at least in 5 years time and finally dominate 90% in 10-15 years
- RIM will continue remain its leadership position for commercial users
Please be aware of the following:
- I am 100% sure the current individual users’ market belongs to Nokia and future belongs to Apple & Google, not RIM
- Blackberry is RIM’s only product, its app store is pretty small. Its portfolio is not diversified enough
Fair value may rise to CA$100 (based on the estimation growth rate), again you need to hold it for 5-6 years.
To me, Manulife Financial will generate higher return with lower risk.
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