1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.19 => CA$83.84 HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$47.82 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$41.10 HOLD
TD Bank to buy Chrysler Financial for US$6.3B, the auto leaders with 1 million customers, net assets of US$5.9B by its internal funds (existing shareholders not being diluted). I think this deal is good given the following fact:
1. Strong 2010 auto sales in USA (thanks to Toyota’s “collapse” & slow economy recovery)
2. Auto loan default rate normally lower than bank card loan & mortgage loan at 1.77% which improved by 77 bps compare to year 2009’s average & even it is still 15 bps higher than pre-financial crisis
3. Given TD Bank can use its strong deposit base to support this auto loan business, the interest spread TD Bank will be higher than Chrysler
4. Purchase price of $6.3B or 7% higher than book value looks low (normally, the average is about 2 times book value)
5. Risk of minimal or even negative earning if the prime rate continue to remind low while bond rate are all up cuz auto loans are based on prime rate
12.23.2010
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