Life Term Strategies

1. Huge Gains in Long Term
- Receive significant capital gains
- by investing in corporations
- (with wide economic moat & average peers’ net margin)
- In very very long term

2. Strong Periodic Cash Flow
- Maintain self-sufficient monthly cash flow
- Through dividend, gains on derivative & short term trading
- For re-investment to item # 1 mentioned above

3. Mind for Risk Management
- Ensure strong cash position
- Maintain low risk by continue monitor, analyze & feel:
economic trend & environment,
market condition & investors emotion
corporate performance & outlook
asset allocation & direction

4. Be a holy Christian investor:
- Invest in wisdom & varies ways, but consistent & not over nor under of what the Holy Bible expects a Jesus follower should be
- Keep regular & long term spiritual growth
Continue experience God @ finance market
Aim for life transform opportunities
- Even though it may not teach Billy & Bilibala what stocks to invest nor how to make more, more & more $

4.08.2009

Manulife 1q09 results forecast

In 1Q09
  • TSX down -3.0%;
  • S&P 500 (in Cdn$ down -8.9%
  • Ndx 100 (in Cdn $) up 5.3%
  • SC Univ Bond index up 1.5%
  • SC Univ short term index up 1.7%

The loss on equity market should offset with the gain on bond market. But change in actuarial liabilities should still go up higher than trend due to increase in volatility & addition dealth & maturity guarantee benefit onto seg fund equity policyholders.

There is an $181 one time adjustment on Canandian tax changes will put through in 1Q09.

Manulife's sales in insurance product & asset management should slight down in 1q09 due to saving rate go up and fear on equity market and economy. Therefore, its 1q09 fee incomes & income from inforce business may go down.

Based on the above fact & estimation, I will change my original earning estimation from loss $500M to breakeven. On the other hand, I think its shareholders' equity (exclude capital injections, if any) will go up slightly by 3% (due to US$ up compare to CA$ by 3% in 1q09).

I will keep my fair value at CA$31.0

PS: if Manulife introduced a new hedge program in 1q to absorb the volatile impact & risk, the above estimation may not hold true. However, to calculate the impact on new hedge to the bottom line (if there is any), I have to know the exact starting date & the hedge % to the total portfolio. That's something I cannot get. So, why bother?

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