Consumer market
- Jun ISM index up to 44.8 from 42.8 in May (inline with expectation 44.9)
- May factory orders up +1.2% M/M from up +0.5% M/M in Apr (better, +0.9%)
- Durable orders and non-durable orders both get some pick ups from the bottom, which is a good sight in terms of production.
House market
- Apr home price down 19.2% Y/Y from 18.7% Y/Y in Mar
- Although i think the total GDP$ has reached its bottom in 1Q, but recession will only be over when the home price stablized, looks like the house market is still searching for bottom
Job market
- Jun unemployment rate up to 9.5% from 9.4% in May (better, 9.6%)
- Jun non-farm job pos down -467k from -322k in May (worse, -367k)
- In comparison to May, lots of job cut came from service sector (business -118k vs -48k in may, government -52k vs -10k in may)
- One thing very interesting to me is the expectation on ADP employment change is -394k higher than non-farm job pos cut -367k. Usually, Job cut is always higher than ADP, looks like the analysts are lowered their estimation purposely to create a market drop signal
- 06/27 inital job claims down to 614k from 630k last week (inline, 615k)
Economic
- Apr GDP down -0.1% M/M or -3.0% Y/Y. Manufacture, energy, retail sector down -1.0%, -0.7%, -0.6% M/M. Wholesale, Finance up 0.5%, 0.4% M/M.
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