Life Term Strategies

1. Huge Gains in Long Term
- Receive significant capital gains
- by investing in corporations
- (with wide economic moat & average peers’ net margin)
- In very very long term

2. Strong Periodic Cash Flow
- Maintain self-sufficient monthly cash flow
- Through dividend, gains on derivative & short term trading
- For re-investment to item # 1 mentioned above

3. Mind for Risk Management
- Ensure strong cash position
- Maintain low risk by continue monitor, analyze & feel:
economic trend & environment,
market condition & investors emotion
corporate performance & outlook
asset allocation & direction

4. Be a holy Christian investor:
- Invest in wisdom & varies ways, but consistent & not over nor under of what the Holy Bible expects a Jesus follower should be
- Keep regular & long term spiritual growth
Continue experience God @ finance market
Aim for life transform opportunities
- Even though it may not teach Billy & Bilibala what stocks to invest nor how to make more, more & more $

7.31.2009

Econ data 09 week 31

USA
Overall
  • 2q09 GDP down -1.0% Q/Q from down 5.5% in 1q (better than expect -1.5%)
  • 2q09 GDP deflator up 0.2% Q/Q from 1.9% in 1q (better, 1.0%)
Consumer market
  • Jun durable orders down -2.5% from up 1.3% in May (worse, -0.6%)
  • Jun durable orders (ex-transport) up 1.1% from up 0.8% in May (better, 0.0%)
  • Jul consumer confidence down to 46.6 from 49.3 in Jun (worse, 49.0)
House market
  • Jun new home sales up to 384k from 346k in May (better, 352k)
  • May S&P/Case Shiller home price index down 17.1% Y/Y improved from -18.1% in Apr (better, -17.9%)
Job market
  • 07/25 jobless initial claims up to 584k from 559k last week (worse, 575k)
  • 2q09 employment cost index up 0.4% from 0.3% in 1q (better, 0.4%)
Upcoming
  • Jul unemployment rate => expect 9.6%
  • Jul nonfarm payroll job pos => expect up to -340k
Canada
Overall
  • May GDP down -0.5% M/M from -0.1% (worse, -0.1%)
Upcoming
  • Jul unemployment rate => expect 8.8%
  • Jul nonfarm payroll job pos => expect down to -20k

Bilibala Finance Portfolio - Jul 09

Portfolio - Top 10 Holdings @ Jul 31, 09:
  1. China Mobile (CHL/0941) up 4.8% M/M
  2. China Life (LFC/2628) up 20.1% M/M
  3. China Cons Bank (0939) up 4.2% M/M
  4. Google (GOOG) up 5.1% M/M
  5. HSBC (HBC/0005) up 21.4% M/M
  6. Wells Fargo (WFC) up 0.8% M/M
  7. Shui On Land (0272) up 3.0% M/M
  8. Manulife (MFC/0945) up 30.0% M/M
  9. Conoco Phillips (COP) up 4.4% M/M
  10. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) up 9.8% M/M

July 09 Performance:

  • Bilibala Finance Portfolio up 14.1% M/M
  • CA TSX up 4.0% M/M
  • US S&P 500 up 7.4% M/M
  • HKG Hang Seng up 11.9% M/M

7.29.2009

Microsoft + Yahoo vs Google

After years of courting, Microsoft Corp. has reached a deal with Yahoo Inc. to pool their resources on internet search, the lucrative business technology rival Google Inc. dominates.

Under terms of the agreement announced Wednesday, the two companies will pool their relative strengths in the search business, with Microsoft using its technology to power Yahoo searches while Yahoo puts its sales force to work to attract premium search advertisers.

The two companies said in a joint news release they hope the deal will help lead to faster, better and more relevant results for web users and advertisers when conducting online searches.

The 10-year deal will allow Microsoft to introduce its new search engine, called Bing, to more customers. In return, Yahoo will get to keep 88 per cent of the revenue from all search ad sales on its site for the first five years of the deal and gain the right to sell ads on some Microsoft sites.

Google had 65 per cent of the internet search traffic in the United States in June, according to the latest report from online tracker comScore. Yahoo and Microsoft sites were in second and third place in the search market, but trailed far behind with 19.6 per cent and 8.4 per cent in market share.

Microsoft had gained 0.4 per cent of the U.S. online search market share in the last month, however, while Yahoo's share dropped by 0.5 per cent.

Gartner Inc. analyst Neil MacDonald said the recent success of Bing helped make the deal happen.

"I think it put pressure on Yahoo, as well as Yahoo not being able to turn it around on its own," said MacDonald.

Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz said the deal is the beginning of a new era of innovation and development for the internet and will bring value to Yahoo.

"This deal will help us increase our investments in priority areas in winning audience properties, display advertising capabilities and mobile experiences," she said.

Yahoo estimates the deal will boost annual profit by $500 million and save the company about $275 million on capital expenditures as it turns over some of the search technology costs to Microsoft.

Microsoft made a bid to buy Yahoo in the spring of 2008 for $47.5 billion U.S., but Yahoo's board of directors had insisted on a higher price and Microsoft refused. Yahoo then lost much of its bargaining power when Google backed out of an internet advertising partnership to avoid a challenge from the U.S. Justice Department, which had concerns about competition in advertising if the partnership was made.

Yahoo's chief executive at the time, Jerry Yang, then invited Microsoft to make another offer on his company, but Microsoft said it was no longer interested.

Bartz replaced Yang after he stepped down in December.

Google's response:

Steve Ballmer, the Microsoft chief executive, believes Google will try to get the software giant's search advertising deal with Yahoo blocked – while workers have been warned of redundancies as the two companies integrate operations.

Microsoft and Yahoo have their sights set on catching the runaway search-advertising market leader Google with their 10-year global deal.

In the tie-up, Microsoft's Bing search service will be integrated across both companies' websites, while Yahoo will handle global search ad sales.

Ballmer, who failed to push through a deal to buy Yahoo's search business for $1bn (£610m) last year, said he expected "aggressive" lobbying by Google when the deal was scrutinised by regulators across the globe.

"We suspect we will face opposition from the competitor [Google]," he said on a conference call alongside the Yahoo chief executive, Carol Bartz. "The case of us coming together will provide more competition, not less. [However] we expect our competitor to be aggressive."

Microsoft and Yahoo intend to file the deal document, of more than 100 pages, to anti-trust authorities in the US and Brussels, as well as other markets, next week. The companies hope to close the deal early next year.

Ballmer indicated that the deal might find regulatory clearance easier with the European Union because, he claimed, Google had as much as 92% ad-search market share across the continent – compared with about 70% in the US. In Europe Microsoft and Yahoo's combined search-ad market share fell well short of their 25% to 30% figure in the US, he said.

Bartz said, for Yahoo, the deal was attractive because it included a high-level payment of "traffic acquisition costs" (Tac), amounting to 88% of search revenue generated on sites owned or operated by Yahoo over the deal's first five years, although without an up-front cash payment.
"A big cash payment upfront doesn't help from an operating standpoint," she added. "What we wanted was a significant Tac rate so we would have the revenue to support our expenses line to invest in the business."

Ballmer, admitting there was "no question" the deal was at a much higher Tac rate than last summer's negotiations over the acquisition of Yahoo's search business, said that establishing the joint operation across the two companies over the next few years would cost Microsoft "a couple of hundreds of millions".

One of the pay-offs, he added, was that the partnership would enable Microsoft and Yahoo to develop a superior search algorithm to Google.

Bartz said Bing would be integrated across Yahoo in three to six months after the deal was closed – on Yahoo the search function would appear as "powered by Bing". Complete global integration with the resulting financial benefits were not expected for up to two years, she added.

Some Yahoo search employees would move to Microsoft, some would move to the company's display ad division, but there would also be cuts, according to Bartz.

"Unfortunately there will be some redundancies at Yahoo," she said, adding that the process of laying off workers would happen over the next two and a half years.

She said that once the partnership was up and running it would generate an operating income of $500m a year. With Microsoft focusing on developing search technology, Yahoo estimates it would save $200m a year in capital expenditure.

"The deal won't happen overnight. We will work with regulators and broadly anticipate closing the deal in early 2010," said Bartz.

"This deal will create a significant competitive alternative in search. A combination of Microsoft and Yahoo ... puts the choice back into the hands of consumers, advertisers and publishers who are increasingly anxious about the influence of a single player," she added.

A spokesman for Google said: "There has traditionally been a lot of competition online, and our experience is that competition brings about great things for users. We're interested to learn more about the deal."

Bilibala comments:
Not sure whether the deal can pass through different countries' regulation or not.
Also, joint force will not help unless the techology improve and offer better services & search result to customers.

Conoco Phillips 2q09 results

(AGI) - Houston, 29 Jul. - The US petrol giant ConocoPhillips marked net profits down 76pct during the second quarter, at 1.3 billion euro - equal to 87 cents per share. The company had expected shares worth 86 cents. Conoco's daily production, excluding its 20pct participation in Russian Lukoil, topped off at 1.87 million barrels, above the 1.86 million estimated by the company last July 7.

Bilibala cooments:
I haven't read the 2q09 press release yet, will do later today.

Recession is over? - Bank of Canada

By Paul Vieira and Derek Abma, Canwest News ServiceJuly 24, 2009

Canada's first recession in nearly 20 years has come to an end, according to the Bank of Canada, with the economy set to return to growth in the coming months as business and consumer confidence improves.

Canada's economic downturn, which had been ongoing for three-quarters of a year, is giving way to renewed growth in the current quarter as a result of improved credit markets and higher levels of consumer confidence, the central bank said in its monetary policy report on Thursday.
"We believe the economy will grow this quarter," bank governor Mark Carney told reporters at a media conference Thursday. "The rate of growth will pick up to the end of the year and into 2010."

The Bank of Canada's latest forecast is for economic growth of 1.3% for the current quarter ending Sept. 30, followed by a healthy 3% gain for the final three months of 2009.
In its previous forecast in April, the Bank of Canada anticipated the economy would shrink 1% in the current three-month period.

"It is there in black and white, that the recovery has effectively begun," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. "I think it is astonishing how quickly the economy turned to the good in the last four or five months."

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty was also upbeat about an economic rebound,: "Recent news economically is more encouraging than it's been in recent months."

The Bank of Canada's latest ray of economic sunshine follows results of its business survey released last week that showed 61% of respondents expected their sales levels to improve in the coming 12 months. That was up from 30% when the same survey was taken three months earlier.

On Thursday, Carney said Canada -- along with the rest of the world -- is recovering largely because of extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus measures governments and central banks have implemented since the start of the financial crisis last fall.

For example, the Bank of Canada's key policy rate as low as it can go at 0.25%, and it has pledged to keep it there until June of next year.

"It is early days, and it is a long road," Carney said. "But things are unfolding as we broadly expected them to -- a little faster in terms of some of the recovery of confidence in financial conditions."

Carney warned the labour market would be slow to adjust to the pickup in momentum. Between October and June, the Canadian economy has lost 454,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate from 6.2% to 8.6%.

BMO's Porter said unemployment can expect to be at an elevated rate for some time.
"One of the last things to turn around is employment," he said.

Porter said the time lag between economic recovery and labour-market recovery is a result of employers waiting "to make sure the recovery is for real."

And as they see the need to boost production, companies will take initial steps such as moving part-time workers to full-time positions and having employees work overtime before they actually hire new staff.

Also Thursday, the Conference Board of Canada said its monthly consumer-confidence index was up for the fifth straight month. The measure rose 0.8 points to 82.9 in July, with a particularly positive change in consumers' attitudes toward the current period being a good time to make major purchases.

The Ottawa-based think-tank said although the July increase was marginal, the gradual improvement in sentiment indicates "consumers do indeed see a light at the end of the tunnel."
That report came one day after a Statistics Canada said retail sales rose a better-than-expected 1.2% in May, led by a 2.4% increase in automotive products.

And earlier this week, in its monthly monetary policy announcement, the Bank of Canada revised its forecast, saying the economy would contract 2.3% this year and grow 3% in 2010.
It had previously expected a 3% decline this year and 2.5% growth next year.

On Thursday, the Bank of Canada specified that some of the elements helping the economy recover this year would be better-than-expected improvements in consumer spending and housing sales.

Despite the upward revisions, however, the central bank suggested household spending is expected to remain "cautious" for the remainder of this year and next in light of a weak labour market, and stock-market losses sustained late last year and during the early part of 2009. The savings rate, meanwhile, is expected to remain "elevated" for the next several years.
The Bank of Canada said inflation, which influences its interest rates, has come in higher than expected as wages continue to increase despite weak productivity and an excess supply of goods.
© Copyright (c) Canwest News Service

ROGERS' PROFITS IMPROVE

By FREE PRESS NEWS SERVICES

TORONTO -- Aggressive cost control and a flurry of high-tech smartphone releases helped Rogers Communications Inc. beat analyst expectations yesterday, driving the telecommunications giant to improved profits and revenues in a traditionally slow period in the midst of a recession. Even so, Rogers downgraded its revenue outlook for the year ahead, dropping expectations for consolidated top line growth to between2 and 4%, down from earlier predictions of 5 to 9%. "On balance the quarter reflects the strength of our franchises, the quality of our networks and our focused execution, though we're clearly moving through some challenging economic times," Rogers chief executive Nadir Mohamed said.

TORONTO -- Aggressive cost control and a flurry of high-tech smartphone releases helped Rogers Communications Inc. beat analyst expectations yesterday, driving the telecommunications giant to improved profits and revenues in a traditionally slow period in the midst of a recession. Even so, Rogers downgraded its revenue outlook for the year ahead, dropping expectations for consolidated top line growth to between2 and 4%, down from earlier predictions of 5 to 9%. "On balance the quarter reflects the strength of our franchises, the quality of our networks and our focused execution, though we're clearly moving through some challenging economic times," Rogers chief executive Nadir Mohamed said.

Bilibala's comments
The Outlook cut mainly with Rogers' Media segment. The rest are fine and management said it doesn't know how will the i-phone 3G S impact will be for 2H09. With sales & promotion as well as the cost of equipment, even i-phone sales looks great, it will benefit the future years, but i don't think it will have great positive impact to 2H09 net income.

7.25.2009

Warren Buffett interview @ CNBC

  • Dow @ 9,000 still worth to buy & hold
  • Inflation will come, but the government is doing the right thing to safe the economy

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32123530//

Econ data 09 week 30 audio version

7.24.2009

Econ data 09 week 30

Global stock market rally in the past 2 weeks thanks to the higher than "expected" 2q09 results delivered by (more than 70%) large corporations.

US
Overall
  • Jun leading indicators up +0.7% from +1.3% in May (better than expect, +0.5%)
House market
  • Jun existing home sales up to 4.89M from 4.72M in May (better than expect, 4.84M)

Job market

  • 07/18 initial jobless claim up to 554k from 524k last week (inline, 557k)

Canada

Consumer market

  • Jun retail sales up 1.2% (inline with expectation)

7.23.2009

Baidu Statistics

What has been a great free feature from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) for website owners, will now be offered in China by its search leader, Baidu, Inc. ((ADR) NASDAQ: BIDU). The company has officially launched its “Baidu Statistics” visitor tracking service, formerly codenamed “Sherlock Holmes”.

The service will initially be offered to existing Baidu business clients in order to help them analyze site traffic and optimize their search marketing campaigns by providing visitor information such as IP address, time on site and traffic sources. The plan, which is not free as is Google Analytics, will be offered to all websites some time after the launch.
Baidu Statistics from China Analyst. ————————-Google Analytics dashboard.

Bilibala comments:
I've visited both, and I think Google one is still better and offer more useful info.
McDonald’s (MCD) quarterly profit fell 8 percent, the #1 burger chain said Thursday, to $1.09 billion, or 98 cents per share, vs. $1.08 per share a year ago.

The Golden Arches blamed a stronger dollar and a one-time gain last year for the weaker results.

Revenue was down 7 percent to $5.65 billion on foreign exchange translation.
Mickey D’s shares trading down nearly four percent Thursday.

Bilibala's comments:
McDonald's Corp is one of the few corporations that able to immuse the recession impact. I agree, most of the fall came from stronger dollars. I think the result will look better in 3Q.

7.22.2009

Wells Fargo down after 2q09 results beat expectation

In afternoon trading, shares of Aaron's Incorporated fell by more than twelve percent on the news.

Another company surpassing Wall Street estimates but failing to win over investors was Wells Fargo (WFC). The company announced earnings of $0.57 per share, which easily beat Wall Street estimates of $0.34 per share. The rising delinquencies in the loan portfolio was a concern, as 2.11% of loans were delinquent at the end of the second quarter. To date, the company has set aside a daunting $23.5 billion for future credit losses.

Investors sold first and asked questions later, sending the stock down over five and a half percent so far today.

Bilibala Comments
Delinquencies rate rise to 2.11% and allowance for credit losses rise to 2.86%. On the other hand, Interest margin rise to 4.30%, with the $23.5B allowance in balance sheet & the $60B write off in Wachovia's non-preforming debt, should have more than enough to cover the losses.

The fall create a great opportunity to add more.

Fitch Downgrades Wells Fargo's IDR to 'AA-'; Outlook Stable

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fitch Ratings has downgraded the long-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) and subsidiaries to 'AA-' from 'AA'. Fitch has also removed WFC from Rating Watch Negative, where it was originally placed on May 15, 2009. The Rating Outlook is Stable. A complete list of ratings appears at the end of this release.

WFC faces continued significant pressure on asset quality in light of the extremely weak economic environment. The ratings also consider WFC's above average earnings capacity, derived primarily from its diverse community and mortgage banking activities, which has allowed WFC to provide for elevated loan losses and simultaneously build the reserve against future losses. Today, WFC reported another strong profit of $3.2 billion, despite a significant $700 million reserve build and the sizeable $565 million FDIC special assessment.

WFC's year-end 2008 acquisition of Wachovia Corporation effectively doubled its size and added significantly to its risk profile. On a consolidated basis, approximately 40% of WFC's loan portfolio is secured by residential first or second lien mortgages. Together with other consumer lending, approximately half of WFC's loan portfolio is exposed to U.S. consumers, a borrower group that has been very negatively impacted by reduced home prices and high unemployment. Through purchase accounting adjustments at the close of the transaction, WFC marked assets and loans acquired through Wachovia to fair value.

Significant write-downs were taken against the value of Wachovia's substantial Pick-A-Pay (option ARM) mortgages, considerable commercial real estate exposure and meaningful activities through various off balance sheet structures. Commercial real estate is anticipated to exhibit significant deterioration over the near to intermediate term. The significant write-downs taken at acquisition and legacy WFC's approach to commercial real estate are viewed as risk mitigants that are likely to buffer the impact to WFC as this asset class is further challenged.

Capital was stretched with the acquisition of Wachovia and continues to moderately lag peer levels. WFC issued $25 billion in preferred stock to the U.S. Treasury under the capital purchase program (CPP) in fourth-quarter 2008 (4Q'08). In the stress tests conducted by the bank regulators, the results of which were published in May 2009, the regulators indicated that WFC needed to add $13.7 billion in Tier I common equity. WFC raised the required capital by June 30, 2009 through the issuance of $8.6 billion in common shares, 2Q'09 retained earnings and the recapture of deferred tax assets, much of which arose as a result of the purchase accounting write-downs on Wachovia and, until recaptured, reduce common equity. Thus, capital ratios have improved materially since the Wachovia acquisition but remain below 'best in class' levels. Fitch believes that WFC is adequately capitalized, particularly given its solid funding and profitability, to manage through continued economic challenges ahead.

WFC's funding profile, considered by Fitch to be stable, is primarily core funded with deposits funding nearly two thirds of total footings. WFC also actively uses other wholesale funding sources including FHLB borrowings and short and long term debt. Debt maturities are well distributed and significant liquidity is held in the form of cash and liquid assets at both the parent company and the banks. WFC's cost of funds compares favorably to peers, which helps drive its strong net interest margin. WFC actively manages liquidity at all levels of the organization.

The integration of Wachovia is proceeding as announced at acquisition. While every merger carries integration risks, WFC, under its current management team, has an excellent track record with acquisitions. WFC tends to take a deliberate approach to ensure smoother transitions and lower customer disruption when operations are consolidated. As a result, the major bank charters are not anticipated to be combined much before the end of 2009. Expected cost savings of approximately $5 billion annually are anticipated from consolidation of the two companies, primarily from administrative and back office consolidation as there is only branch overlap in six states.

Bilibala comments:
I think from negative to stable is a good news, regardless of the downgrade. Downgrade will have negative impact to Wells Fargo's cost of borrowing, but since Wells generate its fund mainly on zero interest deposit, therefore, the impact should be immaterial.

JNJ growth rates

Posted by: grandpagates (IP Logged) [Ignore this user]
Date: July 15, 2009 11:17PM

So JNJ 2Q09 earnings are out. As expected Risperdale and Topamax got hammered by generics. Of interest, is that currency fluctuations were a huge negative drag. Of interest is that the Risperdale and Topamax damage is now largely historical.

So the question is, with so many gurus owning JNJ, is it time to back up the truck and buy? Bear in mind that I get PTSD flashbacks when CEOs make vague promises that new drugs will replace those coming off patent.

I have never seen any estimates about how much JNJ's newer drugs could contribute and what the odds of them are in making it to market. So for the time being, I will temporarily just value their contribution at $0.

What I was able to wrap my brain around was a projection of pharmacuetical sales for 2Q10. I just took that quarterly results from JNJ, projected the plus or minus growth rate for each drug into 2Q10 based on the rate for the last 12 months, and came up with a very approxmate projection. Not very precise, no deep business insights, but at least, it is a number that does not come out of the hat. This was done while ignoring currency fluctuations.

If my arithmetic (See below) is right, which is very questionable at this late hour, pharaceutical sales will go up 5% between 2Q09 and 2Q10.

There is value in doing this by individual drug instead of globally because of the enormous impact of patent expiration.

Noting that consumer sales went up 3% in the last 12 months (ignoring currency fluctuations) and that medical device sales went up 3% in the last 12 months (ingoring currency fluctuation), I then arrive that total JNJ sales will go up 3.5% or so in the next 12 months. Any sales of new drugs by a so called "promising pipeline" would be a kicker bonus. Any improvement of the consumer segment due to a possibly improving economy would be a bonus.

In conclusion, JNJ appears to likely be priced as a fair deal masked by the damage of patent expiration and masked by currency fluctional, with potential upside due to an improved economy and a potential upside due to new drugs. And there is a management that appears to have a history of apparently reasonable investment of earnings (20% ROE), nice earnings growth rate, and nice dividend growth rate. No crazy mergers of 2 struggling companies to come up with one bigger company struggling in more ways.

In brief, this quick exercise seems to confirm that the gurus who hold JNJ know what they are talking about and that the loss of patent damage is history.

I am planning to buy some more.

7.20.2009

Wells Fargo 2q09 preview

(By Salman - iStockAnalyst Writer)Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:
WFC: 25.83, 0.83) is scheduled to announce its second quarter 2009 earnings on Wednesday, July 22, 2009, at 8 a.m. ET. Analysts currently expect the bank to report earnings of 32 cents per share on $20.3 billion in revenue. A year ago, Wells Fargo reported 53 cents a share on revenue of $11.5 billion.

Wells Fargo & Company, through its subsidiaries, provides retail, commercial, and corporate banking services principally in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Community Banking, Wholesale Banking, and Wells Fargo Financial.So far, Wells Fargo's bottom line has held up better than expected. First quarter net income of Wells Fargo, excluding payment of preferred stock dividend, surged to $3.05 billion from $2.00 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Earnings on a per share basis, however, dropped to $0.56 from $0.60, due to an increase in average common share outstanding. The San Francisco-based bank earlier this year was told by regulators after government stress tests that it needed to boost Tier 1 capital levels by $13.7 billion. The company had received $25 billion and has yet to submit an application for the repayment of same. Thus, the firm is expected to continue facing bailout-related government restrictions on executive pay, dividends and other things. In May, the bank raised $8.6 billion by selling common stock.

The bank came under pressure after it acquired Wachovia which was in danger of collapse due to bad mortgages. Credit losses at Wachovia may continue to hurt the bank in coming days. Presently, many of troubled assets are in special purpose vehicles, for which banks don't have to account on their books. According to industry experts, Wachovia's exposure to problem loans is significant.Still, the bank may report upbeat earnings given the strong mortgage activity. Recently, Wells Fargo Chief Executive John Stumpf said the $25 billion of subprime loans on the bank's balance sheet and made at its Wells Fargo Financial unit are performing very, very well - well above the industry average.

The San Francisco bank has combined its existing securities division with the larger practice of Wachovia Corp. "Clearly one of the great benefits of the Wachovia merger was the strong investment banking and capital markets platform that we gained," John Stumpf, chief executive officer of Wells Fargo, said in a statement. "We plan to build on those strengths to grow and invest in the business." When Wells Fargo acquired Wachovia last year, the company said it planned to sell off or shut down Wachovia's riskier, investment banking operations, which were considered incompatible with Wells Fargo's typically conservative nature.

Shares of the company are currently trading at roughly 14 times consensus 2010 EPS estimates. In terms of stock performance, Wells Fargo shares have lost 16% since the beginning of the year. On Friday, shares of the company fell 5 cents or 0.19% to close at $25.05 in regular trade.
Disclosure: Author doesn’t own any of the stocks mentioned here.

Bilibala comments:
I really don't understand after JP Morgan and Bank of American report earnings better than expectation. Analysts still think Wells Fargo will only make 2q09 EPS $0.32. To me, unless loan provision rise dramatically, my conservative 2q09 EPS guess is $0.56.

China Life premium for 1H09

國壽<02628.hk>公布,截至6月底上半年累計保費收入約1727億人民幣(下同),較去年同期1821億元下跌5.16%。(ia/w)

Bilibala comments:

Is slow down really due to realignment to longer term and higher margin products? I guess I can only conclude this after I read its 1H09 and 2009 results. For 1H09, China Life's net income should improve thanks to equity market rally in 2Q.

中保監表示,上半年全國實現保費收入5986.1億元人民幣(下同),按年增長6.6%。賠款和給付按年增長4.2%。截至6月底,保險公司總資產3.7萬億元,較年初增長10.9%。

財產險業務穩中有升,上半年財產險業務實現保費收入按年增長16.4%,增幅比第一季度提高4.4個百分點。

人身險業務增速有所回落,上半年人身險業務實現保費收入按年增長3.6%,增幅比第一季度回落5.8個百分點,去年以來投資型業務過快增長的情況得到控制。上半年,人身險業務增長速度儘管按年回落,但這個增長是在困難局面和去年基數較大,以及主動進行結構調整的情況下取得的,壽險公司的業務品質、內涵價值和持續經營能力得到提升。

截至6月底,保險公司資金運用餘額3.4萬億元,較年初增長10.4%。其中,股票和股權投資佔比9.8%,較年初提高1.9個百分點;證券投資基金佔比6.8%,較年初提高 1.4個百分點。經營效益逐步提高,上半年保險公司預計利潤總額261億元,按年增長98%。再保險公司預計利潤總額按年增加68.3億元。保險資金運用收益1099.7億元,好於去年同期。(wr/w)

China Mobile new subscribers in Jun 09

中移動<00941.hk>公布,6月份淨上客501.9萬戶,較5月份511.8萬戶,減少1.9%。6月底總用戶增至4.93124億戶。6月使用3G網絡服務的G3用戶數為95.9萬戶,較5月份74.6萬戶,增28.6%。(ad/a)

Bilibala comments:
Growth slow down but China Mobile still is the largest telecom co in China with dominate market shares. It won't change in short/medium term.

Finance 101 investment concerns

7.17.2009

Industry on Online advertising

Whether you like the earnings report from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) or not, there are some key takeaways using the same metrics that Google uses at other internet stocks and online media stocks. Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) has the most direct comparison of all, particularly as everyone calls Baidu “the Chinese equivalent of Google.” We won’t call it a knock-off, but we’ll leave it at that. Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is on deck with earnings next week, and the metrics there have many direct and related metrics compared to Google. Then there is the IAC/InterActiveCorp. (NASDAQ: IACI) further down the list with the Ask.com ties. On the standalone ad metrics, we would show ValueClick Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK), and lastly we want to address the much much smaller Local.com Corp. (NASDAQ: LOCM). There are many other media and online companies, but we are looking for the direct pure-plays in this so we are not comparing apples to oranges or tennis balls.

The top metrics at Google were as follows:

  • Traffic Acquisition Costs, or revenues shared with Google’s partners, were $1.45 billion, similar to $1.44 billion last quarter. TAC as a percentage of advertising revenues was 27%, same as in the first quarter of 2009 and in the fourth quarter of 2008.
  • Paid click growth was up 15% over a year ago, but was DOWN 2% sequentially.
  • Google’s headcount was down again from 20,164 to 19,786 full-time global employees.

Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) reports on Tuesday, July 21. We won’t bother telling you the differences between this one and Google. But there is an interesting development in the stock. This one has been in a $15 to $16.75 trading range since early May. This is based upon the hope of a Microsoft pact is coming and on the changes that Carol Bartz is making. Earnings estimates are $0.08 EPS and $1.14 billion in revenues, and there has been very little change in the estimates of late. If we compare some of the same data in the Google metrics then we would come up with a slightly better than expected to less-bad earnings and revenue report. The obvious caveat here is going to be “charges” that came about from restructuring during Q2. Be advised, if no Microsoft deal comes then there is much room for air to come out of this one. Shares are close to $16.70 today, and it was just July 9 when shares went as low as $14.25.

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) reports on Thursday, July 23. This one is looking like a champ on the charts as far as support on the downside if there is a disappointment. But it also looks like it has buyer exhaustion just like Google did before the report. Estimates on Baidu are $1.43 EPS and $156.58 million in revenues. Despite a better GDP in China, there have been no real changes to the expectations here of late. With the $11.1 billion market cap and expected 2009 earnings multiple of 55, we always have to say ‘watch the valuations.” The good news is that the street is still expecting roughly 40% earnings and revenue growth in 2010.

IAC/InterActiveCorp. (IACI) is still two weeks out and reports on Wednesday, July 29. Estimates are $0.09 EPS and $334.6 million in revenues. Barry Diller’s online media and specialty online destination conglomerate includes Ask.com, Excite, Bloglines, Match.com, People Media, and a couple dozen other online media or specialty web destination properties. We see IACI as the biggest possible wild card for all of the media properties in earnings season. IACI is actually just above what was the high-end of its recent trading band around $16.80. With where the 50-day moving average is ($16.02), this one should have major support around that $16.00 if there is a disappointment. On a post-break-up basis the 52-week low is $13.23. With an implied $2.5 billion market cap, the expected multiples for FY-2009 end are 40-times earnings and 1.8-times revenues.

Local.com Corp. (LOCM) already raised guidance and took its shares higher. Comparing Local.com to any of these huge properties is a stretch. But this company’s local search is in the sweet spot from what we have heard from IAC, Google, AOL, and others. It is hard to know if the company is a willing seller, but this one could easily turn into takeover bait if management and/or recent investors were interested. Based on this one now being non-GAAP profitable and a $58 million implied market cap (may be different after financings) this one would be easy for any large player to acquire even at a substantial premium.

ValueClick Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK) has perhaps the biggest opportunity out there as it is sort of the last man standing in the pure online advertising solutions. Google was not exactly conveying the message that there is a huge improvement yet in online ad rates. But our own checks in and out of Google-tied advertising shows that ad rates have not just stopped going down. They are still down considerably from the peak, but they have recovered handily from the lows on a CPM basis and on a performance basis. This won’t translate to a homerun quarter at ValueClick for Q2, but if things stay static or continue to improve even marginally then it gives a huge opportunity in Q3 and Q4. With a $4.66 to $14.00 range over the last year and a $11.30 area today, we think the company cannot be muted or show much weakness in the business. This one just crossed its 50-day moving average on Wednesday, and if the business is not stabilized or strengthening then we’d look for a retest of that level ($10.79 today). The $982 million market cap is less than two-times expected earnings.

As far as how all of these compare, Google trades at an implied forward value for 2009 of 20.4-times earnings and 8-times revenues.

We will be doing much more detailed reviews for the key players on an individual basis. These estimates are likely to change by next week, and information on the charts and moving averages will change each day.
JON C. OGGJULY 17, 2009

GE 2q09 results

July 17, 2009 11:12 AM ET
General Electric Co’s profits tumbled 47 percent in the second quarter due to a lackluster performance from its finance arm and industrial divisions.

GE (NYSE: GE), based in Fairfield, Conn., reported net income of $2.6 billion, down from $5.4 billion in the same period last year. Earnings per share were 24 cents, down from 51 cents a year earlier.

Revenue dropped 17 percent to $39.1 billion, falling short of analysts’ predictions of $42.1 billion.
GE says its lending arm, GE Capital, posted profits of $590 million, 80 percent less than a year ago.

Atlanta-based GE Energy performed best of all of the company’s units in the second quarter. Revenue was down 6 percent from the year-ago period, but profit for the company’s energy segment jumped 13 percent. That unit reported earnings of $3.6 billion on revenue of $20.1 billion. The company attributed the increased profit to “pricing and cost moves.”

Industrial sales fell 7 percent to $26 billion, marked by a decline in demand for appliances, locomotive and hospital equipment.

GE Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Immelt said the company delivered “solid second-quarter results” in a challenging economic environment. It “remains on track to be profitable for the full year,” he said.

GE’s renewable energy business is based in Schenectady. GE Energy, which manufactures turbines, also has an operation in Schenectady. The company’s research headquarters is in nearby Niskayuna.

Copyright 2009 bizjournals.com

Bilibala's comments:
GE's EPS inline with my expectation, need to take a closer look before I can calculate the target price.

GE Says Oil At Good Level

General Electric Co. (GE) said Friday that oil is priced at a level attractive for its myriad businesses, strong enough to spur new energy investments but not so high that it crimps the broad economy.

"Above $60 (a barrel), the projects that invest in new (energy) production and efficiency get pretty good paybacks," Chief Financial Officer Keith Sherin said in an interview Friday. "That's the feedback we get from customers" for GE's energy-related products.

GE's energy infrastructure division was its only segment to show second-quarter profit growth. GE reported Friday that earnings in the unit climbed 13% in the quarter, to $1.79 billion.
Sherin said oil between about $60 and $70 a barrel isn't so high that it puts too much of a strain on customers for GE's non-energy products, such as airlines. That was the case last year, he noted, when oil spiked above $140 a barrel.

Oil recently was trading at about $63 a barrel.

"Right now, oil is at a pretty good level for GE," Sherin said.

The Fairfield, Conn., conglomerate is viewed as a barometer of the broad economy because of its far-flung operations, ranging from aircraft engines and washing machines to media content and oil-and-gas gear.

Separately, Sherin said Friday that GE may spend about $2 billion on restructuring over the next 18 months as it works to cut expenses. He said the restructuring efforts are projected to pay for themselves after two years through lower costs.

"These are additional cost-reduction opportunities that we are evaluating," Sherin said, adding that the company may not enact all of them.

He declined to specifically detail the potential cost-reduction efforts. But he said they include possible job reductions and consolidations of facilities, as well as investments in information technology.

The restructuring targets are spread across the company, he said, including its GE Capital finance arm and its industrial units. Sherin noted that GE enacted about $300 million in after-tax restructuring in the second quarter.

-By Bob Sechler; Dow Jones Newswires; 512-394-0285; bob.sechler@dowjones.com

Bilibala comments:
I think oil price will stay between US$60-75 per barrel until everyone confirm the recession is going to be over, once it happened, oil price will go up to at least US$100.

Econ data 09 week 29

USA
Consumer market

  • Jun retail sales up +0.6% from +0.5% in may (better than expect +0.4%)
  • Jun retail sales ex-auto up +0.3% from +0.4% in may (worse, +0.5%)
  • Jun CPI up +0.7% from 0.6% in May (better +0.6%)
  • May business inventory down -1.0% from -1.3% in May (better, -0.8%)

House market

  • Jun house start up to 582k from 562k in May (better, 530k)
  • Jun building premit up to 563k from 518k in May (better, 524k)

Job market

  • 07/11 initial jobless claim down to 522k from 569k last week (better, 553k)

Canada

  • Jun existing home sales up 8.7% M/M to 41.3k following the 9.0% M/M up in May and home price up 1.7% Y/Y. The house market looks very strong.

China

  • 1H09 GDP up 7.9%, close to 8.0%, one can confirm 90% that China will be able to have 8.0% GDP growth in 2009.

7.16.2009

Google 2q09 result

The company also has trimmed some employee perks, Patrick Pichette, chief financial officer, said at an investor conference in June. Google closed some cafes and eliminated free water bottles. The company continues to be “prudent” about its costs, he said at the time.

Google’s share of the U.S. Internet-search market was unchanged last month at 65 percent, according to ComScore Inc., a research firm in Reston, Virginia. The company managed to ward off an attack from Bing, a new Microsoft Corp. search engine backed by a broad marketing campaign.

Microsoft, based in Redmond, Washington, increased its market share to 8.4 percent, from 8 percent the previous month, ComScore said. Sunnyvale, California-based Yahoo! Inc., which ranks second in the market, dropped to 19.6 percent in June from 20.1 percent.

“We believe Bing will have little to no long-term impact to Google’s business,” Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray & Co. in Minneapolis, said in a note to investors.

New Features
Google continues to add its own search features. The company announced plans in May to make it easier for Web surfers to customize query results. Users can now limit searches to a certain time frame and filter the kind of results they get.

Online advertising, which makes up most of Google’s sales, is outpacing print and television ads. The Internet-ad market may grow 10 percent this year, while the overall industry shrinks 8.5 percent, according to ZenithOptimedia Group in London.

With Internet-search advertising, marketers only have to pay when someone clicks on an ad. That helps cost-conscious advertisers get the most for their money, Squali said.

“Search is performing well for advertisers in this economic environment,” he said. “Marketers are looking for performance-based media, and search is it.”

Google is seeking fresh ways to attract users to its search engine and other online services.
Earlier this month, the company said it would offer computer makers a free operating system called Chrome OS. The software, available next year, will be designed for users who go to the Web to work on documents, calendars and e-mail. That contrasts with Microsoft’s traditional approach of keeping most software on computers’ hard drives.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at Bwomack1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 16, 2009 16:10 EDT

Bilibala comments
Revenue really slow down to only 3%, although i don't know how much of it is due to US dollar rise. One the other hand, Google really did a great job in expenses management this year.
I will keep my target price at $1,050 (6 year from now)

7.15.2009

Berkshire Hathaway Looks Stronger Than Ever, The Price Is Just Right

July-12-2009
(GuruFocus, July 12, 2009) There is a Barron’s article today entited “ For Buffett Fans, the Price Is Right” written by Andrew Bary.

Andrew Bary has written several articles about Berkshire in the past few years. In late 2007, when the company's "A" shares were trading near $150,000, Bary penned a front-page cover story saying Berkshire was overpriced.

Last year Bary wrote another cover story making the case that MidAmerican Energy Chairman David Sokol is the most-likely candidate to succeed Buffett. Bary wrote a more bullish piece on Berkshire last year. Here are key points he made in the recent article:

1. Berkshire Hathaway is down 12% for the year. Its shares have not participated much in the stock market’s rally since the end of March.

2. Buffett stated that book value is a good proxy of Berkshire’s intrinsic value, and historically it has been.

3. On those terms, Berkshire shares look appealing, at just 1.2 times estimated current book value of $72,000 a share. In the past decade, the stock has traded for an average of 1.6 to 1.7 times book value, a measure of shareholder equity per share. The current price-to-book ratio is near the low reached in early 2000, when Berkshire's stock bottomed at about $40,000.

4. Book Value Estimate: Berkshire 's book value, which stood at $66,250 per share as of March 31, likely has risen since then because of the market's powerful rally. That has lifted the value of the company's famed equity portfolio, which now totals more than $50 billion. The market value of Berkshire's equity and bond derivatives also has increased, and we assume the company earned more than $1,000 a share from operations in the second quarter, in line with reported first-quarter figures. That's how we arrive at an estimated book value of $72,000 a share.

5. Reasons holding Berkshire's shares back:
a) Investors recently have favored economically sensitive and other "offensive" stocks;
b) Investors remain concerned about Buffett's miscalculated sale of long-term put options on $35 billion of equity indexes, including the Standard & Poor's 500, when stock prices were much higher;
c) Berkshire has taken a big hit on some of its own equity holdings, including large stakes in ConocoPhillips (COP). d) property-and-casualty insurers are out of favor amid concerns about weak insurance pricing. e)Warren Buffett turns 79 next month. The author thinks all are insignificant except Buffett's age.

6. Even if the market tanks again this year, the downside in Berkshire stock seems limited due to its low price/book ratio and the company's earnings power.

7. The company looks stronger than ever, due to its promising portfolio and some top-flight businesses. Investors could now buy that package for a low premium to book value and get the talents of Buffett, who continues to demonstrate his incomparable investment skills.

8. The B shares look like a better buy than the A shares, because they sell at a 3% discount to their theoretical value. But the discount has persisted for some time, and could continue, as the B shares can't be converted into A shares.

Bilibala comments:
I also have concern about his age, other than that, Berkshire is a great company to invest.

How Many Berkshire Hathaway Shares Does Warren Buffett Still Own?

July-14-2009
Warren Buffett just reported the Berkshire shares he still owns after the recent donations. We all know that Warren Buffett is once the richest man on the earth. He got rich because he is the most successful investor ever, and he has grown his snowball – Berkshire Hathaway to one of the largest companies in the world.

Warren Buffett just filed an update with SEC regarding to the Berkshire shares he owns. As of July 1, 2009, Warren Buffett owns directly and beneficially 350,000 shares of Class A and 1,501,532 shares of Class B common stocks, which are 33.10% of the outstanding shares of Class A Common Stock, and 10.12% of the outstanding shares of Class B Common Stock, respectively. Buffett has 31.60% of the aggregate voting power of the outstanding shares of Class A Common Stock and Class B Common Stock, and 25.78% of the economic interest of the outstanding shares of Class A Common Stock and Class B Common Stock.

Warren Buffett has committed most of Berkshire shares to charities. On July 1, 2009, Mr. Buffett donated 428,688 shares of Class B Common Stock to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, 42,869 shares of Class B Common Stock to the Susan Thompson Buffett , 15,005 shares of Class B Common Stock to each of the Sherwood Foundation, the Howard G. Buffett Foundation and the NoVo Foundation.

The Berkshire shares that Warren Buffett owns are worth about $35 billion. In March Forbes estimated that Warren Buffett’s personal net worth is about $37 billion, this includes other holdings in his personal portfolio, like the 2.2 million shares of Wells Fargo (WFC).

Bilibala comments:
Buffett should be the richest man in the world, but he willing to gave up his worth and donate it to a foundation that is not under his name.

Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway Interviewed by ABC

July-9-2009
Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway was interviewed by ABC today, in which he gave a guided support for a second economic stimulus package. Here are some quotes from the Buffett Make sure you watch the video in the end.

1. On the second economic stimulus package:
“I think that a second one may well be called for,"
"you hope it doesn't get watered down in many ways."
"Our first stimulus bill ... was sort of like taking half a tablet of Viagra and having also a bunch of candy mixed in ... as if everybody was putting in enough for their own constituents, it doesn't have really quite the wall that might have been anticipated there."

2. On government's public-private investment plan (PPIP)
"I do not like the idea of any kind of a plan involving the government where Wall Street makes a lot of money. My plan provided that they would make no money whatsoever, and the American public would make the money. I just think that Wall Street owes the American people one at this point,"

3. On economic recovery:
"We are not in a freefall, but we are not in a recovery either. We were in a freefall really in the last quarter of last year, starting in the financial markets and spreading to the economy, and we had this huge change in behavior. That change hasn't changed."
"We didn't want to do it, and if we saw things coming back we wouldn't do it" (Buffett laid off 500 people from his own company)

4. On severity of current recession:
"I have never seen it quite happen like this, but what happened was in late September, the American public … saw money market funds break the buck. They saw commercial papers stop, they saw all kinds of things that they hadn't seen before,It was a shock to the system."

5. But in the end Buffett remains optimistic:
"I want to emphasize, we are going to come out of this better than ever," he said. "I mean the best days of America, by far, lie ahead. But not next week or next month and then, I don't know exactly when we will come out, but we will come out big time."

Bilibala comments:
I don't think USA need a 2nd stimulus plan, but a 2nd stimulus plan will definitly help to end recession a lot quicker. On the other hand, it may lead to high inflation.

J&J profit falls but trumps forecasts

Johnson & Johnson posted a 5 percent drop in second-quarter
earnings, but profit and revenue beat analyst forecasts helped
by surprisingly resilient pharmaceutical and consumer product
sales. Revenue took a hit from patent expirations on its drugs
for schizophrenia and epilepsy, but sales of its blockbuster arthritis
drug Remicade were better than expected. The company
earned $3.21 billion, or $1.15 per share. That compared with
$3.37 billion, or $1.18 per share, in the year-earlier period. Analysts
on average expected $1.11 per share, according to
Reuters Estimates. J&J's quarterly revenue fell 7.4 percent to
$15.24 billion, but was $190 million higher than analysts expected.
Sales would have been 6 percentage points higher if not
for the strong dollar, which hurt the value of overseas sales. The
company affirmed its full-year profit forecast of $4.45 to $4.55
per share, which excludes special items.

Bilibala comments
In long run, health care is in need and the service is extremely difficult for other company to copy, so Johnson & Johnson will receive the benefit of it.
2Q results inline with my expectation, i need further analysis to determine the target price

Google vs Baidu

Posted on 15 July 2009 Tags: ,
Google Inc. (GOOG) and Baidu Inc. (BIDU) have faced-off in China over the past few years with Baidu managing to beat Google at the search game in the world’s largest economy. This fact alone, however, doesn’t make Baidu a buy. Though Google certainly doesn’t need another feather in its cap, Google is the more attractive stock of the two right now, and the company has reason to be optimistic about its prospects in Baidu’s home market as well.

Ubiquitous Internet giant Google Inc. (GOOG: 433.41 +2.05%) announces it second quarter earnings Thursday, and with its stock price climbing nearly 4% over the last four days the market seems to be optimistic. The optimism is shared by analysts who expect sales growth of 4.3% year-over-year and earnings-per-share growth of nearly 10%.

More interesting for Google’s long-term prospects is not its earnings report but rather a “strange but true” story from more than a week ago – Google’s search engine and other services were briefly blocked nationwide in China for offering pornographic websites in its search results. Sex is taboo in China and most experts argue it was simply grandstanding by China’s regime, but more important than the particular logic of the temporary block was the rise in Baidu Inc. (BIDU: 308.75 +3.24%), China’s largest search provider, shares.

The bump in Baidu’s prices was unjustified because the block was not permanent nor should it become a trend (which would be an obvious benefit to Baidu); counterintuitively, following the logic of there is no such thing as bad press, the blocking of Google – which was trumpeted on state-owned television in the country – actually led to an increase in Google China traffic once the ban was lifted.

Baidu is certainly the Chinese search engine to beat, commanding 64% of its search market compared to Google’s 30%, in other words the Google of China is Baidu. But Baidu is only a buy if its valuation is attractive and it can maintain is dominance against Google in China.

Bilibala's comments:
I agree, Baidu's price is too expensive unless it can substand the strong growth of above 40% per year in future.

7.09.2009

Legend on Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett is the richest investor in the world. The student of the father of value investing Ben Graham, learned how to invest money in the Graham-Newman Corp. partnership in the early 1950s. After it was closed, Buffett formed his own investment management partnership. In it, he utilized several value investment strategies, which allowed him to significantly outperform the S&P 500 for over a decade. In the early days of his partnership it was pretty easy to uncover value investment opportunities, since the partnership was small enough to deal where few investment advisers and mutual funds had the insight to operate.

In 1969, Warren Buffett closed his partnership, citing the fact that the market was overpriced and that bargains fitting the strict value investing principles that Graham taught him were tough to uncover.

At the same time he concentrated his actions on a small textile operation called Berkshire Hathaway, which is his flagship holding company. His success at Berkshire is astounding, but it is not merely due to value investing strategy, as is commonly known. Had Buffett not branched out of strict value investing principles that Graham taught him; Berkshire Hathaway would have remained a relatively small conglomerate. Buffett did branch out into other strategies however. His insurance operations are similar to selling naked puts or calls – he generates enough premium which in most cases doesn’t have to be paid out for many years to come, giving him a low cost source of financing. His recent deal to sell long term puts (LEAPs) on four major stock indices is another example of branching out.

Buffett also essentially shorted the US dollar. In 2002, Buffett entered in $11 billion worth of forward contracts to deliver U.S. dollars against other currencies. By April 2006, his total gain on these contracts was over $2 billion. In 2005 he reduced his exposure to the currency futures he was holding. His play on the weakening dollar is by purchasing solid businesses which derive a portion of their earnings from outside the US.

Most people I talk to also seem to believe that Buffett owns a concentrated portfolio of 10-15 positions, which allows him to allocate the most funds in his best ideas. A recent look at Berkshire Hathaway’s stock portfolio revealed 40 stock positions from a variety of industries such as consumer staples, utilities, financials, retailers, energy and many other sectors. In addition to that Berkshire Hathaway owns a variety of businesses ranging from insurance ( Geico and General RE) , Utilities ( Mid american), Apparel, Building Products, Flight Services, Retail, Financial, and Conglomerates such as the recently acquired Marmon Holdings.

Another example is his investments in Gillette, acquired by Procter and Gamble(PG) ; Coca Cola (KO) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Buffett purchases businesses with wide moats, which he believes have strong growth potential, that would lift earnings and distributable cash flows. His yield on cost on his 1988-1994 $1.298 billion investment in Coca Cola (KO) is a staggering 25.20%. His average purchase price comes out to $6.49/share, whereas the annual dividend is $1.76/share after the most recent dividend increase.

Another interesting investment is in See’s Candies, which he purchased for $25 million in 1972, at a time when its pre-tax earnings were $5 million on $30 million of sales. The confectionary maker in a slow growth industry currently generates enough cash flow, which is then redirected to other business opportunities. In fact over the past 35 years, the capital needs for the company have risen from $8 million to $40 million annually, while it has returned $1.35 billion worth of pre-tax earnings to be allocated somewhere else.

Yet another myth about Buffett is that he doesn’t like dividends. The contrary is true – from his early days of buying farmland and operating a newspaper route to buying pinball machines Buffett has been particularly interested in the distributions from his business. His investments in See’s Candies and other businesses like Coca Cola (KO) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) throw off enough cash in the form of dividends to Berkshire Hathaway that he then allocates appropriately. The same is true for many dividend investors, which are primarily interested in purchasing stable wide moat businesses, that have the ability to grow earnings. That way these companies can afford to consistently raise distributions to shareholders. Dividend investors then allocate their dividends received in the best manner suitable – either by purchasing more stock or spending it on their own needs.

Another myth about Warren Buffett is that he never sells. In 1998 he sold his position in McDonald’s (MCD) for a tidy profit. In his 1998 Letter to Shareholders, Buffett called this move “a very big mistake”. While McDonald’s stock closed 1998 at $38 it did fall to as lot as $12 at the bottom of the 2000-2003 bear market, before staging a massive rally during the 2003-2007-bull market. The stock is one of the few, which have not seen their shares fall of a cliff in the recent bear market.

The future of Berkshire Hathaway is really what gives nightmares to its investors. Due to its sheer size, it has to concentrate only on opportunities in the billions of dollars. In “THE SUPERINVESTORS OF GRAHAM-AND-DODDSVILLE” he explained that “if you ever get so you're managing two trillion dollars, and that happens to be the amount of the total equity valuation in the economy, don't think that you'll do better than average”

It would be impracticable to concentrate on hundreds of smaller deals, which could potentially generate higher returns. One idea that Berkshire could implement is to franchise Buffett Partnership’s business model to hundreds of small value investors with $1 million in seed capital, and watch them become the next Buffett. This could bring in new life to Berkshire.

Buffett seems to like companies, which generate enough in royalties due to their high moats for many years to come. Such competitive advantages that allow them to spend a considerable amount of funds upfront on research and development to create a unique product and then sell it for many years in the future is closely resembling the idea of passive income that many investors are constantly seeking out. Such companies which generate “royalty” type of revenues includes See’s Candies, Microsoft (MSFT), Coca Cola (KO), and pharmaceuticals companies such as Pfizer (PFE) or Eli Lilly (LLY).

7.08.2009

Google operation system

Chris Sorensen Business Reporter
Google Inc. is building a computer operating system in a move that could place the search engine giant in direct competition with the industry's other heavyweight, Microsoft Corp.

Mountain View, Calif.-based Google said late Tuesday that it is working on a new open-source operating system that is an extension of its Google Chrome Web browser.

"It's our attempt to re-think what operating systems should be," Sundar Pichai, Google's vice-president of product management, in a blog posting.

The Google Chrome OS will be "lightweight" and will be initially targeting netbooks, lower cost laptops that are becoming increasingly popular. The operating system will focus on "speed, simplicity and security" and is expected to be available by the second half of 2010, Google said.
The move could be viewed as an effort to go after the bread and butter of Microsoft's business, which is built around its widely used Windows operating system.

Over the past several years, Google has been attempting to extend its core business beyond search engine technology with offerings include Gmail and Google Docs, a suite of computer programs that's meant to provide an alternative to Microsoft's word processing, spreadsheet and calendar applications.

Meanwhile, Microsoft has been trying to garner a bigger slice of the search engine market, having recently launched a revamped version of its search technology under the name Bing.

Bilibala comments:
I used Google's software (online word and excel), not everything is convertable from microsoft's application, so whether Google's operating system will be a plus to the company is uncertain.

The biggest search engine in China

What’s China’s Biggest Search Engine Up To?
It's a mistake to think that Google rules the search engine world. Native Chinese search engine Baidu holds a massive majority in the Chinese search engine market. With China having now surpassed the US to become the largest internet population in the world, this is no small matter.

Baidu has a tight hold on three times the online Chinese search industry as its rival Google.
Yet it is so seldom that we hear news about this far away giant. Here, we'll look at some recent Baidu stories that have been developing.

The first was announced just one week ago – Baidu declared its plans to compile the largest digital rural encyclopedia in China. Yes, China's rural population is starting to get online in the masses, despite China's well-known strict internet controls. In fact, in Baidu's recent keyword promotion project, it was noticed that revenues were extremely high from the keyword 'agriculture', providing further evidence or rural online growth. Also showing high growth potential for Baidu were the keywords 'forestry', 'animal' and 'fishery'.

The rural encyclopedia will include 500,000 of China's administrative villages – covering over three-quarters of all China's villages. Baidu has compiled the content of this encyclopedia largely from participants of its 'rural information competition', on which it spent roughly five million yuan.

The compa
ny also plans to scale up keyword promotion and provide consultation, brand ad exhibitions, and online sales services for rural traveling and promotion of local products.

The company is perhaps attempting new tricks due to the quarter-to-quarter falls in revenue it reported in the last quarter or 2008 and first quarter of 2009, the result of reduced advertising spend.

It was predicted Baidu would suffer from bad publicity from its workers' strike in May, who were angry over salary cuts and new sales commission policies. It also received bad press earlier this year for carrying ads from unlicensed medical companies. Baidu invested heavily in marketing to restore its image after these events.

It appears its efforts have paid off. Despite the drop in short term income, Baidu's year-to-year income was still higher than expected at the beginning of 2009, with the company reporting that it rose 24 percent to $26.5 million.

Google continues its efforts to win over the Chinese market, but Baidu seems to win out every time. Though its aesthetic design is exceedingly similar to that of Google, its internal algorithms are uniquely couched in Chinese culture. The search engine was built by native Chinese who live in China, and thus have the most accurate understanding of how Chinese people search.

For this reason, it is likely that Baidu will continuously corner the Chinese search market. Now that it's targeting its rural consumers, there's no telling how big it could grow.

7.07.2009

Delinquencies on consumer loans rising

By APARAJITA SAHA-BUBNA
BOSTON -- Rising unemployment is increasingly pushing strapped U.S. borrowers over the edge, with delinquencies on consumer loans rising to 3.23% in the first quarter, up from 3.22% in the earlier quarter.

During the same period, unpaid balances on these consumer loans also jumped to 3.35% from 3.16%, according to data from the American Bankers Association, an industry trade group.
Higher delinquencies, fueled by rising unemployment and the economic slump, force companies to squirrel away capital to reserve for potential losses; ultimately, companies must write off loans if customers can't pay up. That could mean more trouble for firms such as Citigroup Inc., GMAC Inc., Bank of America Corp., American Express Co., Capital One Financial Corp., Discover Financial Services and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

"The number one driver of delinquencies is job loss," said James Chessen, chief economist at the American Bankers Association, in a report published Tuesday. "Delinquencies won't improve until companies start hiring again and we see a significant economic turnaround."

Payrolls contracted by 467,000 jobs last month, a worse-than-expected decline, and the unemployment rate climbed to 9.5%, its highest level in more than 25 years.

In the first quarter, delinquencies on credit cards rose 0.23 percentage point to 4.75% compared to 4.52% in the previous quarter, according to the report. Moreover, the unpaid balances on those delinquent accounts jumped up 1.08 percentage points to a record 6.60%.

The report defines consumer delinquencies as borrowers who are at least 30 days behind on payments on debt ranging from credit cards and auto loans to mortgages.

Delinquencies for home-equity loans also touched record highs, rising to 3.52% in the first quarter.

Bilibala's comments:
To me, 3-4% isn't too high, given the interest spread is higher now. Trend analysis on 2q09's result will tell whether that's getting worse or not.

California: Teetering closer to junk

Fitch Ratings downgrades the state's bond rating to BBB, just above junk status. Budget impasse continues to rile the state's financial standing.

By Tami Luhby, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: July 6, 2009: 7:17 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- California's bond rating is far from golden.
Citing the Golden State's ongoing budget upheaval, Fitch Ratings on Monday downgraded California's long-term debt to BBB, one category above junk bond status. The next step is BBB- before the state's bonds would be considered speculative debt.

Fitch also maintained its so-called negative outlook on California. "[I]nstitutional gridlock could persist, further aggravating the state's already severe economic, revenue and liquidity challenges," Fitch wrote.

The agency had downgraded the state to A- on June 25.

While Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and lawmakers battle over closing a $26.3 billion budget gap, the state's controller last week was forced to issue IOUs for the first time in 17 years. Some county agencies, state vendors and taxpayers are getting paid in paper. The IOUs help the state controller stave off a deficit of nearly $3 billion for July.

"The fact that they have to take this step shows how tight the state's cash became and how limited their options are in the absence of a budget solution," said Douglas Offerman, Fitch credit analyst. "Without a budget, [the controller's] flexibility gets more and more reduced over time."
California has the lowest bond rating of any state, and therefore must pay higher interest rates than its peers when it issues debt. Whatever agreement officials come to will likely rely heavily on borrowing to balance the budget for the current fiscal year.

"This underscores the urgency to solve our entire deficit with the necessary cuts instead of kicking the can down the alley," Schwarzenegger said in a statement. "This is not the time for boycotting budget meetings -- all sides must come to the table and balance the budget immediately."

The other two major ratings agencies -- Standard & Poors and Moody's -- had previously placed the state on watch for a possible downgrade. They did not follow Fitch's lead Monday and have maintained California's ratings at several levels above junk.

Moody's put the state on watch in mid-June after Controller John Chiang warned of the pending cash shortfall. Standard & Poors affirmed its rating last week.

The IOUs, while not preferable, do allow the state to preserve cash to pay its debt obligations for several weeks, Standard & Poors analyst Gabriel Petek said in an interview Monday.
"We believe California retains the ability to take the actions necessary to meet its debt service payments in full and on time, although we remain concerned about the state's financial liquidity," Petek wrote in a report last week.

But it is on a short leash since the IOUs will only carry it for a few months, he said. By October, the state is looking at a $16.7 billion shortfall, according to the controller's office.

California officials say the state is in no danger of defaulting on its debts.

"It won't happen," Tom Dresslar, spokesman for Treasurer Bill Lockyer, said in an interview last week.

Few states, however, have ventured into BBB territory. California last had such a low rating from Fitch and Standard & Poors in 2003, during another fiscal crisis that resulted in the recall of Gov. Gray Davis. It was the only other time the state had fallen so low.

Standard & Poors has never relegated a state to junk territory. States are usually seen as a relatively safe credit risk. If a state such as California were to fall into speculative status, it would be "catastrophic" for its ability to issue bonds.

7.06.2009

Manulife Financial Corporation Investigation Claims

2009-07-06 17:15:18 - Investigation on behalf of certain investors of Manulife Financial Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:MFC) over possible securities law violations by Manulife Financial Corp announced – Contact the Shareholders Foundation, Inc at mail@shareholdersfoundation.com

SAN DIEGO, CA (Shareholders Foundation) – An investigation on behalf of long term MFC investors and investors, who purchased common stock of Manulife Financial Corp (NYSE:MFC) during the period from January 1, 2008 through June 19, 2009, over possible claims for the violation of the federal securities laws by Manulife Financial was announced.If you are a long term investor in MFC and / or purchased common stock of Manulife Financial Corp (NYSE:MFC) during the period from January 1, 2008 through June 19, 2009, you have certain options and you should contact the Shareholders Foundation, Inc. at Email: mail(at)shareholdersfoundation.com or call us at: +1 (858) 779 - 1554. According to the investigation by a law firm the investigation focuses on allegations that Manulife Financial “failed to fully disclose the risk with respect to its sale of variable annuity guarantees and its segregated fund businesses”.

Manulife Financial has been forced to support the guarantees on these products with increased cash reserves and has suffered huge losses in the 4th quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, so the investigation. On June 19, 2009, after the market closed, Manulife Financial announced that it received an enforcement notice from the Ontario Securities Commission relating to Manulife’s disclosure of risks concerning its variable annuity guarantee and segregated funds business.

The Ontario Securities Commission notice indicated that the preliminary conclusion of Ontario Securities Commission staff was that Manulife Financial failed to meet its continuous disclosure obligations related to its exposure to market price risk in its segregated funds and variable annuity guaranteed products.

Manulife Financial Corporation, located in Toronto, Canada, is a life insurance company and the holding company of The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company. Manulife Financial Corp is a global provider of financial protection and wealth management products and services, including individual life insurance, group life and health insurance, long-term care insurance, pension products, annuities and mutual funds.

Manulife Financial reported Total Revenue of $35.581billion with a Net Change in Cash of $1.538billion in 2007 and Total Revenue of $33.003billion with Net Change in Cash of $4.924billion in 2008. Shares of Manulife Financial (NYSE:MFC) closed on June 19, 2009 before the announcement at $20.57 per share and dropped to under $17 per share the following day. Shares of Manulife Financial reached a 52weekHigh of $38.44 per share and $46.00 per share in 2007.

Wells Fargo expand in investment banking

Wells Fargo & Co., which stepped away from its conservative roots with its purchase of Wachovia last year, plans to announce that it will expand its securities business. The move comes amid a profit revival on Wall Street.

The San Francisco-based Wells had mostly avoided the investment-banking and capital-markets business that banks such as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup embraced and instead focused on plain-vanilla banking. It now plans to "grow and invest" in the securities business that it largely inherited from Wachovia, Wells Chief Executive John Stumpf said in a statement to be released Monday.

Wells Fargo Securities plans to focus on services for outside clients.
The business, to be called Wells Fargo Securities, will face off against established rivals in offering merger advice, stock and bond underwriting, loan syndications and fixed-income trading. One factor behind the move is a rebound on Wall Street, where profits are surging as capital markets stabilize and the credit squeeze makes basic investment-banking businesses more lucrative.
The bank also realized Wachovia had some pretty good lines of business that could serve its clients. A Wells Fargo spokeswoman declined further comment.

Its Dec. 31 acquisition of Charlotte, N.C.-based Wachovia gave Wells a bigger platform in those areas. Trading income and investment fees accounted for $3 billion in revenue during Wells' first quarter, or 14% of the total, with about $2.2 billion of that amount contributed by Wachovia.

Wells Fargo expand securities business

NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) on Monday said it plans to expand the securities business it largely inherited when it bought Wachovia Corp, signaling its commitment to an area that has been recovering from last year's credit market seizure.
The fourth-largest U.S. bank will emphasize debt and equity underwriting, mergers and acquisitions, loan syndications, debt and equity sales and trading, municipal securities and some derivatives, while eschewing the proprietary trading and other risky businesses that caused big losses for many rivals.

Wells Fargo also took another step toward shedding the Wachovia name, renaming its securities unit Wells Fargo Securities from Wachovia Securities. Two months earlier, the bank renamed its brokerage unit, which had also been known as Wachovia Securities, as Wells Fargo Advisors.
Wells Fargo was not available for comment. In the January-to-June period, the San Francisco-based bank ranked 28th in global debt and equity underwriting and 18th in merger advising, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Higher profits from the securities business could help Wells Fargo bolster equity, after it wrote off $37.2 billion of Wachovia's loan book when it acquired that Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender for $12.5 billion at year end.

Wells Fargo recently sold $8.6 billion of stock to help fill a $13.7 billion buffer required by U.S. regulators under a "stress test," and plans to generate the rest internally. The bank previously took $25 billion from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Rob Engel and Jonathan Weiss are leading Wells Fargo's investment banking and capital markets business, while John Shrewsberry is leading its securities and investment group, which focuses on corporate and institutional clients. (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel, Editing by Maureen Bavdek)

7.03.2009

T-Mobile announces second Google phone

Competition in the smartphone market is heating up this summer as one new hot smartphone after another hits the street. The latest is T-Mobile's next Google Android device, called the MyTouch 3G.

T-Mobile will announce the new smartphone Monday. It is the second smartphone the carrier has introduced that uses Google's open-source mobile operating system, Android. T-Mobile introduced the world's first Google Android phone, called the G1, last fall. And so far the company claims it has sold over 1 million devices.

The MyTouch 3G is manufactured by HTC and is essentially the same hardware design as the Google Ion, which is also known as the HTC Magic. The device was introduced at the GSMA Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in February and is now being sold by Vodafone in various markets around the world.

The Google Ion/HTC Magic has been described as thinner than the G1 and slightly smaller than Apple's iPhone. But it features a large 3.2-inch touch screen with a resolution of 320 x480 pixels and no physical keyboard. The phone offers network support for 3G and Wi-Fi.

Kent German, an editor for CNET Reviews, characterized the Google Ion/HTC Magic as having a "sleek, attractive design with a gorgeous display, tactile controls, and an easy-to-use interface. " German said that the phone was the Android device he had been waiting for.

CNET's German hasn't yet reviewed the new MyTouch, which will come in new colors and have enhanced software capabilities specially designed for T-Mobile.

The MyTouch comes with 512 Megabytes of internal memory and supports microSD for external storage. The device will ship with a 4GB microSD card, but customers can add more storage if they'd like.

Even though T-Mobile's first Android phone hasn't even been out a year, T-Mobile is calling the MyTouch its premier Android smartphone, said Andrew Sherrard, vice president at T-Mobile. The carrier will announce a few more Android devices later this year, but it will be focusing much of its marketing efforts promoting the MyTouch. And while Sherrard said the G1 isn't going away anytime soon, he believes the MyTouch will have an even better chance to pick up new customers who are looking for an easy to use smartphone.

T-Mobile plans to sell the MyTouch for $199 with a two-year service contract, and it will be available to current T-Mobile customers starting July 8. Non-T-Mobile customers will be able to get the new phone in early August.

The MyTouch is entering the market just as every major smartphone maker is also introducing its latest and greatest device. Three other smartphones makers have already started selling phones this summer. Palm's much anticipated Pre was introduced on Sprint Nextel's network two weeks ago. Nokia followed with its U.S. debut of the N97, touch-screen smartphone. And Apple started selling its faster and memory-enhanced iPhone 3G S on Friday.

Like the Palm Pre and Apple iPhone 3G S, the MyTouch will be sold exclusively through a single wireless operator in the U.S. And as a result the $199 price tag is subsidized and requires consumers sign a two-year service contract with the carriers. By contrast, Nokia's N97 is not subsidized and is sold at full retail price without a service contract.

So how does T-Mobile expect the MyTouch to stand out among all these other cool new phones? The key, Sherrard said, is personalization. While the basic hardware design of the MyTouch is the same as the HTC Magic, T-Mobile has made enhancements to the device both in terms of hardware and software.

"No two MyTouch devices will be alike," Sherrard said. "They will be as unique as the users that own them."

From a software perspective, consumers will have the opportunity to completely customize their MyTouch device with various Android applications. In retail stores, T-Mobile sales representatives will help customers set up their own personalized device before they leave the store.

The location-based application Sherpa was designed specially for the MyTouch.

One example of an application that will make the phone more unique to a particular individual is called Sherpa, created by Geodelic. This application is a location-based service that uses GPS to help users find restaurants, movie theaters, and other businesses or points of interest that are nearby.

What differentiates this service from other location based services is that Sherpa learns where users have been and what they have searched for in the past, and the application is able to make recommendations. It might show some local businesses that it thinks a user might be interested in, such as the nearest dry cleaner. Or the application might highlight special events going on in that area. It also will tell users how far they are from whichever location they are trying to find.
The application, which is one of 5,000 applications available on the Android Marketplace, will be exclusive to T-Mobile, Sherrard said. The MyTouch will also have special Google features baked in, such as easy picture uploading to Picasa and easy video loading to YouTube, both Web properties owned by Google.

Some other ways users will be able to customize their phones includes the ability to add widgets, music, a personal calendar, photos, and Web link shortcuts that can all be accessed with a single click.

"What we have found is that once consumers know how to customize a device and they add everything they want on it, they respond very well to having a phone that is specially designed for them," Sherrard said.

Still, the battle for the smartphone customer could get bloody. Even though Apple's iPhone 3G S offered only a modest hardware upgrade, it still flew off the shelves the first weekend it was on the market. Analysts said earlier they had expected Apple to sell 500,000 iPhone 3G S devices during the weekend, and it's likely that the company easily exceeded these expectations.

The Palm Pre also got off to a good start with devices selling out the first weekend it was on sale. And Research In Motion, one of the biggest smartphone makers on the market, expects to introduce the BlackBerry Tour and the next generation of its touch-screen BlackBerry phone, the Storm, later this year.

In the end, Sherrard believes consumers will seethe MyTouch as more than just a phone.
"This is more than a product launch for us," Sherrard said. "We want consumers to view this as an experience that we are creating for them."
The information provided in the entire blog is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax or specific investment advice. The information presented was obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, I cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. I assume no responsibility for any losses, whether direct, special or consequential, that arise out of the use of this information. This information is subject to change without notice. Stock performance are not guaranteed, their prices change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please do your own investigation, or contact your own professional advise, before investing.