Finl data: 3Q result did better than I thought, without new share issue, shareholders equity continue to rise, instead of fall. Seg fund assets balance (the one I worry the most) only fall from 175B in 3Q07 to 166B 3Q08, 5.1% drop. Premium continue to rise by 20%.
Issues: I still wondering why the seg fund asset did not drop. Further investigation need to be done on 4Q result. I think it will have a loss in Q4, which may wash out all its profit completely for the year. In 08, it already put up $600M additional reserve on seg fund due to market movement, but I still think that is too little.
Comment: therefore, based on 1.5 times its 07 embedded value $21.85 (assume all growth in 08 will offset with dividend), target value should be CAD$32.8.
11.11.2008
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