Econ Data: 08 week 44

- USA GDP fall 0.3% in 3q08 vs 3q07, driven by 3.1% fall in consumer spending. Finally became negative (better than expect, -0.5%);
- ISM manufacture index fall lowest to 38.9 (worse, 42), 26 years lowest
- Auto sales drop like crazy, GM sales fall 45% in Oct due to tighter credit approval, let's see how the overall auto sales do today;
- 3 months USD LIBOR fall 16.5 bps to 2.85%, good
- LIBOR-OIS Spread (way to determine the health of the credit market, anywhere between 2% to 2.5% means healthy) narrowed 16 bps to 2.23%, good
- Oil price continue to fall from USD$73/bbl to USD $63/bbl, good to lower inflation, not good for Canada's export
- I still think oil price will rise back to US$100/bbl (demand did not drop and will not drop too much plus US$ may once again fall after interest rate cut & after the credit crisis became stable - cuz lots of settlement is in US$, it trigger the huge rise in Oct.)

Some analyst forecast a deeper fall in consumer spending & GDP in 4q. If 4Q GDP keep as a negative figure, then everyone will able to confirm that USA is really within a recession.

Market info:
Thank God!! Last week is "hello-win" or "Halleluiah" or "thanks giving" week (whatever you want to call) to equity market. All rise!!! (From last week Monday's closed to this week Monday/Tuesday's closed)

- HKG equity market, rise from the lowest 10,676 to 14,384, +35%
- China SSE Comp index rise from 1,664 to 1,706, +2.5%
- USA S&P 500 rise from 840 to 966, +15%
- Canada TSX from 8,537 to 9,721, +14%
- UK FTSE 100 from 3,665 to 4,443, +21%

However, if compare to Sep 30, globe market still fall 19% on weighted average in USD$ :<
Once again, USA is the trouble maker, but for some reason it is also the one who get the least impact (at least in equity market), why? I don't know !!