This week, economic data is bad, but lots of them are better than expect. As what I mentioned in Aug 08, situation is not as bad as the media interpret.
However, bad data will continue till at least mar/apr (which will reflect jan/feb's results). Unemployment rate will very likely to rise further, um.....8 - 9% in 2009 la.
- US 4Q adv GDP down to -3.8% (better, -5.5%) prior -0.5%. This is the 2nd continue quarter of GDP falling, USA finally entered into technical recession. I will expect 1q09's GDP to go down too.
- US Dec existing home sales up to 4.74M (better than expect 4.40M) prior 4.45M
- US Dec leading indicators up +0.3% (better, -0.3%) prior -0.4%
- US Jan consumer confidence down to 37.7 (worse, 39.0) prior 38.6
- US Dec durable orders up to -2.6% (worse, 2.0%) prior -3.7%
- US initial jobless claims @ 01/24 remain high at 588k (worse, 575k) prior 584k
- US Dec new home sales down to 331k (worse, 397k) prior 388k
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