Facebook tops Google as most visited site in U.S.

Bilibala: it is interesting to know who the top ranking of the most visited website in USA (from Jan to Nov 2010).

1. Google + related 9.9%
2. Facebook 8.9%
3. Yahoo + related 8.1%

It is more interesting to know how much revenues & profit that those companies generated by those visit (9M 2010):

1. Google $20.8B & $6.0B
2. Yahoo $4.8B & $0.6B
3. Facebook $1.5B & $0.0B (esitmated)

There is a huge different on whether you are an internet user or an investor. Investor investes in business that can generate high margin of profit, not popularity.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BT40320101230?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

(Reuters) - Facebook surpassed Google for the first time as the most visited website in the United States for most of 2010.

The social network site edged out Google.com with 8.9 percent of all U.S. visits between January and November 2010, while Google.com ranked second with about 7.2 percent of all visits, according to online measurement service Experian Hitwise.

Facebook's move to the top spot shows just how quickly the site has grown in popularity. Within the span of six years, Facebook has become the world's largest Web social network with roughly half a billion users worldwide.

Google.com dominated the top spot as the most visited website in the United States in 2009 and 2008. News Corp's MySpace was the No. 1 visited website in 2007. It is ranked No. 7.
However, when all of Google's properties are considered -- such as YouTube and email, for instance -- Google still reigns as the most visited site at 9.9 percent between January and November 2010. Facebook follows at 8.9 percent. Yahoo and all of its properties ranked third at 8.1 percent.

(Reporting by Jennifer Saba. Editing by Robert MacMillan)

Jobless claim down below 400,000

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BM24V20101230?feedType=nl&feedName=ustopnewsearly

(Reuters) - New claims for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected last week to their lowest level in more than two years, suggesting the labor market recovery was gaining strength.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the lowest reading since early July 2008, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was well below economists' expectations for 415,000.

The prior week's claims figure was revised modestly up to 422,000 from the previously reported 420,000. A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level data and described the report as clean.

"This adds to the idea that the jobs picture is improving ... this is another feather in the cap of the idea of recovery," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital in New York.
U.S. Treasury debt prices, already soft before the data, lost more ground, while the dollar pared losses against the yen. S&P stock index futures trimmed losses.

The four-week average of new jobless claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, fell 12,500 to 414,000, the lowest level since the week ending July 26, 2008.
The steady decline in claims in recent weeks likely indicates the pace of job creation picked up this month, after the Labor Department's non-farm payrolls report showed employers added a paltry 39,000 jobs in November.

The December employment data is due on January 7, and a preliminary Reuters survey shows economists expect non-farm payrolls increased 126,000 this month, but still not enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate, which is expected to have edged down to 9.7 percent from 9.8 percent in November.

The claims data also showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid rose 57,000 to 4.13 million in the week ended December 18, above market expectations for 4.10 million. The prior week's figure was revised slightly up to 4.07 million.

The so-called continuing claims data covered the survey week for the December employment report's household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived.

The jobless rate is likely to remain elevated as the improving labor market and general economic conditions lure discouraged job seekers back into the labor force.

The number of people on emergency unemployment benefits fell 77,741 to 3.71 million in the week ended December 11, the latest week for which data is available.

A total of 8.87 million people were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs.

Bilibala: the news is pretty ecouraging, let's see whether such decrease can form a decreasing trend, or it is just due to extra part time during Christmas consuming season.

Bilibala Finance 101 12/23/10

According to Warren Buffett, investors should focus on investing $$$ in corporations that has a strong economic moat. In other word, it can generate get more sales and earn higher profit compare to peers because of what they are.
1. With moat vs without moat - Intel vs AMD
2. Google vs Yahoo

Top holding in Canada 12/23/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.19 => CA$83.84 HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$47.82 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$41.10 HOLD

TD Bank to buy Chrysler Financial for US$6.3B, the auto leaders with 1 million customers, net assets of US$5.9B by its internal funds (existing shareholders not being diluted). I think this deal is good given the following fact:
1. Strong 2010 auto sales in USA (thanks to Toyota’s “collapse” & slow economy recovery)
2. Auto loan default rate normally lower than bank card loan & mortgage loan at 1.77% which improved by 77 bps compare to year 2009’s average & even it is still 15 bps higher than pre-financial crisis
3. Given TD Bank can use its strong deposit base to support this auto loan business, the interest spread TD Bank will be higher than Chrysler
4. Purchase price of $6.3B or 7% higher than book value looks low (normally, the average is about 2 times book value)
5. Risk of minimal or even negative earning if the prime rate continue to remind low while bond rate are all up cuz auto loans are based on prime rate

Top holding in USA 12/23/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY => HOLD
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• American Express share price down recently from US$46.5 to US$41.0 (climb back a bit) on the worry USA government will be more restricted in credit card service charges. Last week, VISA & Master Card share price got the hit as the regulator reform the debit card service charges.
• General Electric’s (I will use GE in below, it is how its own press release name themselves though) share price did not recover as fast as the big 4 banks, nor the giant industrial corp such as Caterpillar, the main reason is because of GE Capital – the finance segment @ GE.
  1. GE is an industrial / technology corp which manufacture energy / power / health equipments & devices
  2. With its strong financial position, they are able to borrow short term loan cheap enough and lent it through GE Capital to their customers in long term (just like u buy a car through finance & then Honda/Nissan/Mini Copper lend $$ to u)
  3. After the financial crisis, GE gets harder to borrow cheaper, therefore, its GE Capital interest spread got narrow down at the same time rise a potential cash flow issues (cuz they borrow in short term but lent it for long term)
  4. Investors has an ongoing cash concern on GE, that’s why its share price only up about 130% from bottom compare to say Wells Fargo which up 250%.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 12/23/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1=> HK$43.34 BUY => STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 BUY
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$7.4=>HK$6.73 STRONG BUY

• China Life Share price fall mainly due to China stock market, however, premium up 19% in 2010, market shares kept at around 40%, new business value remain highly profitable, interest rate trend is favorable to China Life.
• There are potential 1-2% interest rate rise in China next year, therefore, I’ve readjusted China Life & Shiu On Land’s NPV to reflect such impact.

Bilibala Finance 101

The corporations u invest in has names, please stop calling just its symbol, show some respect and call their name, because you are investing in business, you are not gambling.

Top holding in Canada 12/10/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 => CA$47.82 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$41.10 HOLD

I finally completed my analysis on Imperial Oil. Based on its estimated 2011 oil & gas proven reserve & 2011-2015 average oil price of US$95 per bbl with a production cost of US$45, I’ve readjusted my NPV to CA$47.82. Oil price dropped from US$146 in 2008 down to US$36 in 2009 and slowly claim back to US$88, consistent with Bilabial’s estimation. Let’s see whether it will which the magic equilibrium point in US$100 in 2011.

Top holding in USA 12/10/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• Government decided to extend the tax cut policy for another 2 years, positive impact to retail & credit market
• Initial jobless claim fall to 421k this week, looks like the trend is continue to fall from 450k to 425k, positive sign on job market.
• BOD of General Electric increase dividends by 17% to 14 cents per shares per qtr, a positive sign on industrial sector capital loan market, no change to NPV.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 12/10/10

Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 BUY
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY

Potential government intervention on real estate market and credit market makes the equity market looks flat compare to North America. On the other hand, I think those policies will keep the market stay healthy instead of “too hot”

Bilibala Finance 101 12/02/10

Only invest on business u know & have confidence on, it will help u stay with ur investment until the actual “harvest” period arrived

Top holding in Canada 12/02/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 BUY => HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$39.45 => CA$41.10 HOLD

• Last week, Ontario government propose the long term energy plan (LTEP), outlines the plan for Ontario power & transmission system for the next 20 years. Given the fact we may face a possible 24k MW deficiency in generation by 2025, the government plan to spend $87B to increased the MW from current 39k MW to 52k MW ($33B on refurbish the existing nuclear power plant; $27B on building new wind, solar & bio-energy power plant which will deliver 10.5k MW power). Given TransCanada invested heavily in nuclear & wind power, this government plan will have positive impact to TransCanada’s future earnings (Although we all upset cuz our electricity bill will double in 20 years – 3.5% per year)
• TD Bank release its 4q10 results, profit down 1.6% quarter to date & up 48.9% year to date compare to 2009. Excluding $121m 4q non-recurring tax provision, quarter to date profit actually up 10.4% which is on expectation. Deposit up 9.96%, loan up 6.67% and loan to deposit ratio down by 4.93% to 62.80% . I do not see any significant rise in revenue nor in profit for 2011. Given the fact that TD’s price earnings ratio & price per book value ratio are 14.40 & 1.66, it has already priced in.

Top holding in USA 12/02/10

USA
1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• Google’s price fall $30 this week because Europe is investigating whether its searching engine has anti-trust issue. Currently, with 80% market share in Europe, Google for sure dominant the online search market. It is fine if it is because of customers loyalty, it will be charged if it is because Google give favor to sponsor link and set barriers to other website / competitors. In the past, Microsoft had lawsuit with the Europe Commission for years and end up settled the $2.0B fine. Intel also being charged $1.4B in 2009 by EU. To me, those lawsuit can be settled by fine while Google’s dominate position will not change.
• Did anyone of u watch Disney’s Tangled? It is a fun to watch movie, the characters are more human (instead of black & white) with great music & storyline.
• November interest rate move up, I think is time to invest more on insurance company and reduce investment on government & corporate bonds

Top holding in Asia/Europe 12/02/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 HOLD => BUY
5. Shiu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY

• Irish finally got its $$ and the next bond maturity bubble in Europe is Spain & Portugal. Wall street analysts make it sounds like a crisis. In fact, those are simply finding new bondholders to replace their old bonds.
• I think Europe will struggle with slow economy growth for years. The way Europe handle financial crisis is completely opposite than USA. In USA, the quantitative easing buy t-bills, increase money supply in order to prevent deflation, USA increase spending & Debt GDP ratio to boost economy. On the other hand, Europe focus on cutting expenses, reduce debt & reduce money supply. I still think quantitative easing will be a better approach.
• 2 weeks ago I said Hong Kong stock market climb up from 19,000 to 25,000, then drop back to 23,000 is a reasonable adjustments. You can see a strong support at 23,000. I think it will rise back to 25,000 soon.
• I don’t think North Korean issues is a big deal, there will not be a war, but the conflict will continue until I dunno, until North Korean leaders “golden” father & son collapsed, um……..say few years later.