Life Term Strategies

1. Huge Gains in Long Term
- Receive significant capital gains
- by investing in corporations
- (with wide economic moat & average peers’ net margin)
- In very very long term

2. Strong Periodic Cash Flow
- Maintain self-sufficient monthly cash flow
- Through dividend, gains on derivative & short term trading
- For re-investment to item # 1 mentioned above

3. Mind for Risk Management
- Ensure strong cash position
- Maintain low risk by continue monitor, analyze & feel:
economic trend & environment,
market condition & investors emotion
corporate performance & outlook
asset allocation & direction

4. Be a holy Christian investor:
- Invest in wisdom & varies ways, but consistent & not over nor under of what the Holy Bible expects a Jesus follower should be
- Keep regular & long term spiritual growth
Continue experience God @ finance market
Aim for life transform opportunities
- Even though it may not teach Billy & Bilibala what stocks to invest nor how to make more, more & more $

2.26.2010

Bilibala Finance Portfolio - Feb 10

Top 10 Holdings @ Feb 26, 10

  1. China Mobile Ltd 5.3% M/M (add)
  2. China Life Insurance 0.6% M/M (add)
  3. Google Inc (0.6%) M/M (add)
  4. Wells Fargo & Company (3.8%) M/M (add)
  5. China Consturction Bank Corp (2.0%) M/M (add)
  6. Manulife Financial (1.3%) M/M (add)
  7. Berkshire Hathaway Inc 4.7% M/M (no change)
  8. Imperial Oil Limited 1.2% M/M (add)
  9. General Electric Company (0.1%) M/M (no change)
  10. HSBC Holding Plc 2.6% M/M (no change)

Bilibala Portfolio by Sector @ Feb 26, 10

  1. Insurance 31.9%
  2. Telecommunication 25.9%
  3. Banking 12.5%
  4. Information Techology 7.4%
  5. Conglomerate 5.7%
  6. Energy 3.3%
  7. Property 2.3%
  8. Health 1.9%
  9. Logistic 1.7%
  10. Others 7.4%

Bilibala Portfolio by Region @ Feb 26, 10

  • Asia 6
  • USA 14
  • Canada 10
  • Europe 5

Investing in 35 corporations in total.

Performance & Market Stat @ Feb 26, 10

  • S&P500 up 2.9% M/M, down 1.0% YTD, 05-10 average return (1.8%)
  • Toronto up 4.8% M/M, down 1.0% YTD, 05-10 average return 4.5%
  • Hong Kong up 2.4% M/M, down 5.8% YTD, 05-10 average return 7.4%
  • Shanghai up 2.1% M/M, down 6.9% YTD, 05-10 average return 18.5%
  • Bilibala Finance up 2.9% M/M, down 2.9% YTD, 05-10 average return 24.3%

2.24.2010

Shoppers Drug Mart slowly turning into the urban Walmart

Bilibala: expanding may rise sales but reduce profit margin. Also, it may rise debt, let's see how it goes.

http://www.torontolife.com/daily/style/shop-talk/2010/02/24/shoppers-drug-mart-slowly-turning-into-the-urban-walmart/

Shoppers Drug Mart, the ubiquitous drugstore that sells everything from frozen vegetables to cosmetics (oh, medicine, too), is further expanding its offerings to include electronics and ethnic foods in its continuing evolution into a one-stop shopping destination.

Following in the footsteps of Walmart and Canadian Tire, Shoppers CEO Jurgen Schreiber told the Globe that he’d like his company to focus more on food and introduce more private-label lines. Photo departments will be phased out to make room for high-tech gadgets and a “youth corner” to attract younger shoppers.

It seems nothing is stopping the 59-year-old company that’s been dubbed the city’s general store (see our article about Shoppers in the March issue of Toronto Life). As we noted in that piece, there are currently 9.5 million Optimum cardholders across the country. The store’s strong fourth-quarter results, which were released two weeks ago, set a record for the company, boosted by sales of over-the-counter medication (thank you, H1N1).

Just as people go to Indigo to buy coffee and Staples to buy potato chips, perhaps they’ll soon go to Shoppers to buy Life brand bacon.

2.23.2010

主权债务危机

Bilibala: good article to read.

这场席卷世界的金融海啸是不是差不多已经过去了?从金融体系整体的风险角度讲,最坏的时间已经过去了。不过从政府财政角度看,最坏的时间远未到来。在过去18个月,各国政府干了一件事——拼命地花钱。在今后十年,政府必须干另外一件事——拼命地还钱。花钱并不容易,还钱则更难。主权债务问题将是一个挥之不去的阴霾,长时间地困扰着市场,并随时可能制造出新的金融动荡。

希腊债务危机为现代资本主义历史揭开了新的一章。发达国家的主权信用变得不再可靠,曾是零风险的国债似乎也不再是“risk free”。希腊一个2400亿欧元的经济,今年到期的债务就有高达532亿欧元需要偿还。这个国家的储蓄率在过去十年降低了一半,贸易逆差占GDP的比率在同期翻了一倍。金融危机以及随后的信贷市场收缩,不过是将过去十年经济健康的恶化暴露了出来;发行新债艰难,不过是将几任政府的无能和遮掩一次性地清算出来。

欧洲的主权债务困境,希腊只是冰山之一角。PIGS(葡萄牙、爱尔兰、希腊和西班牙的第一个英文字母缩写)四国的财政赤字分别占到本国经济的9.3%、11.4%、12.5%和11.4%,几乎是IMF安全底线和欧盟财政守则所规定水平的3-4倍。这种财政赤字水平加上经常项目巨额赤字,在发达国家中及其罕见,在新兴市场国家中也会被列入高危一族了。希腊问题拖至今日,反映出欧洲联盟的结构性缺陷,不过希腊债务总额毕竟不大,无论欧盟或IMF出手情况都可以得到纾缓。当西班牙这样的大国面临支付/偿还困境时,欧盟以及欧元才面临更大的考验。

接下来可能出事的是英国和法国财政,甚至美国。为拯救银行、刺激经济,法国的财政赤字高达GDP的8%,英国更是高达12.6%。奥巴马的2010年财政预算案中的财政赤字预计高达GDP的9.9%。不仅是财政开支需要维持在高位,经济不景下税收困难会滞后浮现。等央行开始加息时,国债利率上扬财政负担更重。笔者相信这些国家债务负担占经济的比重预计会在今后几年内持续上升,在两年后主权评级遭到质疑的可能性颇大,英国评级被调低似乎难以避免。

有意思的是,美欧巨大财政赤字问题久为市场所知,但是除希腊、爱尔兰等小国外,国债市场的利率仍维持在超低的水平,收益率与政府违约风险并不成比例。有分析员甚至将此时的国债市场称之为一个泡沫奇景。在雷曼倒闭后,市场波动极大,资金流入国债市场避险,拖低国债收益,这在2009年上半年是解释得通的。不过此后资金流出国债,在高风险市场寻求更高的回报,但是国债利率依然低迷,这就耐人寻味了。笔者相信低利率是量化宽松政策的结果,央行大手吸纳政府发行的国债,通过人为制造出来的流动性和需求来维持国债的高价。

然而,天下没有不散之筳宴,央行的超常规货币扩张差不多已经走到尽头,量化收缩已经箭在弦上。当各国央行退市时,人们会突然发现当年对国债价格并不敏感的买家已经消失。在过去,以中国、日本为首的高储蓄国家,为维持汇率稳定而大规模干预汇率,导致外汇储备暴涨。这批外汇储备投资强调安全性、流动性,政治意义高于商业回报,所以曾大量将资金投入回报并不吸引的国债市场(尤其是美国国债市场)。这批需求在危机后,已经大规模转向其它资产种类。

对发达国家国债的需求一定是有的,不过购买力由海外主权资金转向国内(或海外)退休基金及银行。它们对国债回报率的要求要远高过主权基金的要求,所以一旦央行退出量化宽松政策,国债利率的上涨幅度估计会明显大于政策利率的幅度。利率水平正常化,由商业利率开始。下一个潜在的全球性危机,或许由大国的国债市场开始。

本文原载于证券市场周刊,为个人观点,并非任何劝诱或投资建议。

陶冬

Home-Price Declines Slow

Bilibala: recovery in house market is slowly taking place. Since house is a huge investment to most indvidual, rebuild confidence can be slow, but once it set, the sales & price growth will accelerate. I think USA house market will back to normal in 2016. Of course, it depends on interest rate and the economy by that time.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704188104575083234096597738.html?mod=WSJ_PersonalFinance_RealEstate

For the fourth quarter, the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 2.5% decrease from a year earlier, a significant easing from the 19%, 15% and 8.7% declines in the rest of 2009. It fell 1.1% sequentially but rose 0.3% adjusting for seasonal factors.

The indexes showed prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell 2.4% in December from a year earlier, while the index for 20 major metropolitan areas dropped 3.1%. Both indexes dropped 0.2% from the previous month, although adjusted for seasonal factors, they increased 0.3%.
David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, said that the housing market is "definitely in better shape" and that the pace of deterioration has stabilized. But the rate of improvement seen during the summer hasn't survived.

"We are in a seasonally slow period for home prices, however, so it is not surprising to see better statistics in the seasonally adjusted data, where 14 of the markets and the two monthly composites all rose in December," he said.

Nationally, home prices are at levels similar to summer of 2003.

Compared with a year earlier, Las Vegas continued to be hit the hardest, posting a drop of 21% in home prices. Tampa and Detroit followed with declines of 11% and 10%, respectively. The best year-on-year performer was San Francisco, which posted a 4.8% climb.

Month-to-month gainers were led by Los Angeles, which rose 1%. Chicago again fared worst, falling 1.6%.

Recovery in the U.S. housing market has been fragile. Demand for new and used homes, after strengthening in earlier months, dropped in December because of cold weather and continuing joblessness. Though housing starts sprang up again in January, an indicator of future groundbreaking fell. In addition, buyers sought to wrap up home purchases before a federal tax credit was set to expire in November, pulling some sales in earlier.

Write to Joan E. Solsman at joan.solsman@dowjones.com

Morgan Stanley Raises Estimates, Price Target For Disney

Bilibala's fair value on Disney is US$34.0. I think Disney is a great & un-replacable (at least hard to) company in Entertainment and Media sector, but slow economy recovery will slow Disney's growth in the coming few years. That's why my fair value calculation is more conservative compare to Morgan Stanley.

http://www.mysmartrend.com/nw/19058

By Chip Brian, SmarTrend Analytics Team

2/23/2010- Morgan Stanley analysts are raising their estimates and price target for Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS) following Q1 results and Q2 advertising trends that highlighted advertising strength at ESPN and the ABC stations.

Analysts Benjamin Swinburne and Kristi Bonner said, "Relative to our OW thesis, the 1Q results and 2Q advertising trends highlighted advertising strength at ESPN and the ABC stations. In addition, stronger-than-expected affiliate revenue growth from ESPNU also helped the cable networks segment, which saw 20%+ consolidated 1Q10 EBIT growth. Two other legs to our thesis - a consumer/theme park recovery and a creative cycle at the film studio - remain ahead of the stock. However, both segments saw stronger-than-expected cost management, as margins were ahead for 1Q10. We are raising our 2010 and 2011 estimates to $1.98 and $2.35, respectively. Our new 2010 estimates reflect a faster recovery in broadcast advertising vs. our prior model at both the ABC network and the local TV stations."


The bank has a $37 price target on the stock.

U.S. consumer confidence falls 11 points

Bilibala: Not a healthy sign, but in a way after Christmas shopping, consumers tends to have a lower willingness to consume in near "future".

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-confidence-falls-11-points-2010-02-23?reflink=MW_news_stmp


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Consumer confidence fell sharply in February as Americans turned more pessimistic about job prospects and the U.S. economy, the Conference Board reported. Just a month after touching a 16-month high, the board's Consumer Confidence index sank 11 points to 46.0 from an upwardly revised 56.5 in January. It's the lowest reading since April 2009. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who were looking for a slight drop to 55.5 points from the previously reported January level of 55.9.

2.22.2010

Shoppers Drug Mart open new general store

Bilibala: to me, products in Shoppers Drug Mart is very expensive, but, irrationally, customers enjoy shopping at Shoppers Drug Mart. As her shareholders, this is a strong economic moat that I need to take into account in her stock price. CA$44 is really attractive to BUY.

http://www.torontolife.com/features/new-general-store/

Shoppers outposts are suddenly everywhere, fulfilling our late-night need for milk, organic chocolate and self-bronzer. The evolution of the corner drugstore to consumer playground By Maryam Sanati

Just five minutes into Seniors’ Day at my local Shoppers Drug Mart, I’ve loaded up on Pampers, a container of organic flax meal, an electric toothbrush, Life brand vitamins and Advil. I am not a senior. I am at least three decades away from retirement. But here I am, on the last Thursday of the month, snaking my shopping cart around walkers and bundle buggies, hunting for what I need. My mother has split off into another tributary in the store. Divide and conquer. In a sense, I have invited myself to the monthly meeting of her club, where members get 20 per cent off, and I am behaving somewhat overzealously.

There’s no rule against shopping with a senior on Seniors’ Day and taking advantage of their discount. It’s doubtful that the company cares about the finer details of borrowed seniorship. The store is full.

“They give you a $10 off coupon if you spend $50,” my mom says to me as we line up for a cashier, every till buzzing. It is in this line that I realize how devoted Shoppers Drug Mart customers are. Loyalty is rare in this depressed retail environment—a time when, save for special mom-and-pop survivors, a cherished butcher or cheese vendor or a barbershop, most of us have collectively turned away from the small and into the viable expanse of the big.

The chain has not escaped criticism for its aspirations. In late 2007, negative reaction burbled up when construction of a super-sized Shoppers started on the Danforth, pushing out the Ralph Day Funeral Home and a few other small businesses. Inevitably, though, the issue was forgotten. Now residents of Greektown are in that very store late at night, filling their prescriptions and buying their Toblerones. That’s what happens when a big box goes urban; convenience converts even skeptics. They find themselves drawn to the possibility of buying their vitamins and their hair elastics and even some of their electronic gadgets (certain Shoppers now even sell Wiis) in one amenable shopping environment, while also tending to the health of their families.

We go there mostly for necessity: toilet paper, cold remedies, prescriptions (which constitute some 50 per cent of the company’s sales), kitty litter. The proposition that then engages us is the huge amount of choice we see and the other things that we feel suit our lives in a way that is not entirely, convincingly, necessary but is certainly somehow justifiable.

And there is another hook. I can cash in my thousands of Optimum points, accumulated steadily through 10- or 20-times-the-points promotions, only to rack up more Optimum points to bring me back for more shopping tomorrow or the day after. This is every retailer’s reverie: the loyal spend while earning loyalty points to enable them to spend again—the sweet circle of shopping life.

Like newspaper boxes, parking meters and Starbucks, if something is ubiquitous, it becomes part of the background of a city, almost invisible to the people who pass by it every day. We become unmoved to consider how the thing that is everywhere came to be, and just how much of the city’s real estate it consumes. And that’s why I was surprised to discover how many Shoppers Drug Marts there are. Across this city, 127 have planted their patriotic red and white flag posts—the corporate colours, accented by sky blue. (More than 1,170 exist in Canada, operating as Pharma­prix in Quebec.) There are also 65 Shoppers Home Health Care stores, which sell canes, walkers, wheel­chairs, braces and more.

The Optimum card, launched 10 years ago, is the more agile competitor to Air Miles, a card that is aligned with Rexall Pharma Plus. By comparison, Optimum points accrue more quickly, and they’re appealingly easy to use—each receipt tells you how many you’ve got. All you have to do is carry the card in your wallet. Approximately 2.5 million of us, or nearly half the GTA population, are Optimum cardholders. Nationwide, 9.5 million are active card users of Optimum.

Eighty per cent of cardholders are women. The privacy statement for the card notes, “We do not rent, sell or provide the personal information of Shoppers Optimum members.” But every swipe builds a sense of how 9.5 million people shop around the country, and the company tracks the changes they exhibit in their spending habits, the average amount of money spent per visit, and how new products are being received by whom.

Targeted mailings are sent out based on Optimum data: for instance, Shoppers knows I buy Pampers, Camilia and Children’s Tylenol, and so my local store mailed an invitation to my home address to join the VIB (Very Important Baby) program, which promises it will give “you, and everyone who cares for your little one, more rewards and exclusive offers.”

Shoppers is determined to extend its reach. It’s increasing its number of private labels from 11 to 20; launching more of its gleaming Murale cosmetics boutiques (Shoppers’ answer to Sephora), one of which opened at the Shops at Don Mills last summer; and, most significantly, introducing large-format stores, still called “proto­types,” with huge selection and twice the square footage of old-format Shoppers. The majority of Shoppers Drug Marts built since 2002 are the giant prototype stores, averaging 14,000 square feet. They’re taking over the city and slowly redefining how we shop.

Faith Popcorn famously noted that, “Shopping is the museum of the 21st century.” When you’re in the Avenue and Lawrence Shoppers, you know what she’s talking about. It is a model of the new prototype store, and it’s more futuristic and splendid than any drugstore I have ever seen. The aisles are wide, the sightlines are good, and the windows are practically floor-to-ceiling. Open 24 hours, the store is staffed by 90 employees. (The staff complement was doubled when the store expanded in 2008 from a smaller location up the road.)

I took a tour of the facility recently with John Caplice, an affable 40-something father of three who is a senior VP at Shoppers. We start in the BeautyBoutique as he explains the concept behind Shoppers’ cosmetic sales: don’t keep anything, even the high-end stuff, under glass.
The so-called “open sell” strategy is winning business away from weakened department stores. Nearby are two beauty consultants if you need them. “We give customers the choice of service or self-service,” Caplice says, repeating the word “convenience,” which, in a company that professes to be the most convenient retailer in Canada, is an ingrained mantra.

In the cosmetics area, the advisers have no particular affiliation, a philosophical split from the cosmetics floor in any department store, where Lancôme competes with Shiseido and so on. The staff working here are trained to compare and contrast the benefits of each brand. By the end of 2010, there will be 230 Shoppers stores in Canada with this beauty format.

The Avenue and Lawrence store also includes a super-deluxe baby section with a built-in fridge stocking organic baby food. At the back, the dispensary looks nothing like the small-windowed pharmacies of yore. Clerks are stationed around an open curved counter, and next to the prescription drop-off area is a comfortable waiting lounge and a private room for sensitive pharmacist-patient consultations.

In the Food Essentials section, which since 2002 has been established in close to 600 stores, you can find good mozzarella, designer salads and organic products from Nativa, the private label Shoppers launched in March 2008 with 170 items in orange packaging. There are now 200 Nativa goods; I’m partial to the gingersnaps.

Caplice takes me to the toothpaste aisle. Years ago, a dental care section was four feet long. At the Avenue and Lawrence store, there are 28 feet of dental hygiene products, lip balm, floss and other attendant consumer goods. I feel like I’m inspecting a Queen’s regiment made up of toothbrushes.

This is precisely why there are large-format stores in the first place. Caplice explains that the retail space had to expand to accommodate an ever-increasing assortment of stuff—Shoppers’ own products and innovations from the leading consumer companies.

Delinquent at 15 percent in Q4

Bilibala: I agree, the bad debt situation is bad, but better than before. Looks like recovery will be slow cuz in the past few years, the banker willing to lend $$ to the credit unworthy families. Everyone had and will still suffer because of this.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61I3EC20100219?feedType=nl&feedName=usdai

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A record proportion of U.S. mortgages were in foreclosure or at least one payment past due in the fourth quarter, according to industry data showing the fragile state of the recovery in the housing market.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said on Friday the combination of loans in foreclosure and one payment in arrears was 15.02 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever in the survey.

However, the delinquency rate for mortgages on one-to-four-unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.47 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2009, down from 9.64 percent in the third quarter but up from 7.88 percent in the same quarter a year earlier, the MBA said in its National Delinquency Survey.

"This drop in the delinquency rate is good news and shows that the problem may not get much bigger. But it is still a big problem," Jay Brinkmann, MBA chief economist told Reuters in an interview.

In particular, the 30-day delinquency rate showed a sizable drop in the fourth quarter, a strong sign that the market may be seeing the beginning of the end of the unprecedented wave of mortgage delinquencies, he said.

Brinkmann said the drop is important because 30-day delinquencies have historically been a leading indicator of serious delinquencies and foreclosures.

On a historical basis, there is usually a large spike in short-term delinquencies at the end of the year. But 30-day delinquencies fell to 3.63 percent from 3.79 percent.

Only three times before in the history of the MBA survey has the non-seasonally adjusted 30-day delinquency rate dropped between the third and fourth quarter, and never by this magnitude, Brinkmann said.

Another apparent good sign is a drop in the rate of new foreclosures started.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started fell to 1.20 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 1.42 percent in the third quarter but up from 1.08 percent in the same quarter a year earlier, the MBA said.

"The drop in new foreclosures started may be temporary, however, because we continue to see large increases in loans 90 days or more past due," Brinkmann said.

Typically, 30-day delinquencies account for the largest share of all delinquencies. But loans 90 days or more past due now account for half of all delinquencies, the highest share in the history of the MBA survey and double the share only two years ago, he said.

Brinkmann said despite the drop in short-term delinquencies, foreclosure rates could continue to climb, however, based on the ability of borrowers 90 days or more delinquent to solve their problems.

The U.S. foreclosure inventory rate for all loans was 4.58 percent in the fourth quarter, up from 4.47 percent in the third quarter and from 3.30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.
A sizable number of the loans in the 90-plus day delinquent bucket are in loan modification programs. They are carried as delinquent until borrowers demonstrate they will make the payments agreed to in the plans.

The pattern of mortgage delinquencies now very much follows the pattern of unemployment, which was at 9.7 percent in January, according to the Labor Department.

"Therefore, until the issue of this large segment of long-term unemployed is resolved, many of the longer-term mortgage delinquencies will remain a problem with a strong likelihood of turning into foreclosures down the road," said Brinkmann.

President Barack Obama will use a campaign stop for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on Friday to announce a new initiative to help support homeowners in five states hit hardest by the U.S. housing crisis.

An administration official said Obama would announce he is designating $1.5 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to fund programs at local Housing Finance Agencies in California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan.

The records are based on MBA data dating back to 1972.

(Additional reporting by Jeff Mason in Washington; Editing by Dan Grebler)

Lowe's 4q09 results

Bilibala: Better than expected earning suggest that recession / the bottom of USA economy and house market was behind us. Even recovery will be a long journey, but Lowe's is great in terms of increase market share and cost management.

http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/stories/2010/02/22/daily1.html

Lowe’s Cos. Inc., which operates 18 Lowe’s home improvement stores in the 13-county Triangle area, on Monday reported increased earnings for its fourth quarter, ended Jan. 29. But results for the full year were down.

In another announcement Monday, Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) said it has authorized a $5 billion share-buyback program. The company expects to purchase the stock over the next three years.
Lowe’s shares have traded between $13 and $24.50 over the last year. The stock closed Friday at $23.13 per share.

The earnings report Monday morning showed that Lowe’s earned $205 million, or 14 cents per diluted share, in the latest quarter, up from $162 million, or 11 cents per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Lowe’s exceeded analysts’ consensus estimate of 12 cents per share.

Sales grew 1.8 percent, to $10.2 billion. Sales at stores in operation for more than a year dropped 1.6 percent, but that improved on the downward trend earlier in the year.

“While the psychological impact of falling home prices and an uncertain employment picture continue to weigh on consumers, improving comparable-store sales trends, including improvement in many bigger-ticket, project categories, provides an encouraging sign that consumers are gaining the confidence to take on more discretionary projects,” Chief Executive Robert Niblock said in a statement Monday morning.

For the full year, Lowe’s earnings fell 18.8 percent to $1.78 billion, or $1.21 per diluted share, from nearly $2.2 billion, or $1.49 per diluted share, the previous year.

On average, analysts had forecast that the company would earn $1.23 per share in fiscal 2009.
Revenue declined 2.1 percent, to $47.2 billion.

For its first quarter ending April 30, Lowe’s expects earnings to range between 27 cents and 29 cents per diluted share. Lowe’s earned 32 cents per diluted share in the first quarter of 2009.
Lowe’s operates more than 1,700 stores in North America. On Feb. 8, it opened its first two stores in Mexico — both in Monterrey. The company expanded into Canada in 2007 and now has 16 stores there.

2.12.2010

Google Buzz

Google 推出的 Google buzz ,其實說穿了也就是 Google 覬覦社交網站所憑藉殺入此火紅戰場的工具。使用者可以使用 Google buzz 來傳輸簡要訊息、照片、網頁與影片等資訊,成為在 Twitter 、 Facebook 、 Plurk 與 MSN 之外的另類選擇。當然以 Google 在智慧型手機市場上的耕耘成果,讓 Google buzz 有著比其他社交網站具備了先天的優勢。

Google buzz 內嵌於 Gmail 內,只要使用 Gmail 帳號就可啓用。當然不可避免的,是其以目前各大社群網站的功能為師,所以在 buzz 裡面可以看到許多社群大站功能的身影,例如可以邀請好友來加入 buzz ,或可追蹤他人的訊息,也當然可以同步發布。

buzz 發佈的訊息則明確分成公開與私人兩種,也可直接貼上圖檔、影片路徑來讓多媒體影音資料直接播放。至於同步發布的功能,目前只支援 Flickr 、 Twitter 、 Picasa 、 Google Reader 、 Blogger 、Youtube...等與其他網站等。相信已經對於社交網站功能十分熟稔的朋友,面對 Google buzz 會駕輕就熟,輕鬆上手。

以下是 Google buzz 的相關影片:

2.05.2010

市場憂慮西班牙和葡萄牙陷入債務危機

今次觸發環球股市急挫,是市場憂慮歐元區內財赤嚴重的西班牙和葡萄牙會步希臘後塵陷入債務危機,拖垮歐元區經濟甚至觸發新一輪全球金融危機。

Bilibala => the financial situation in Europe is worse than in North America, not because of economy. USA debt to GDP ratio is just as high as countries in Europe. It is the regulation set up in Europe, instead of a united nation, Europian countries form a Union. In order the regulate such Union, it sets up certain the financial regulations which do not have flexibility like USA. If Europe willing to turn on its presss to print money out, the problem will solve right away.

繼希臘後,歐元區內經濟比重較大的西班牙和葡萄牙亦可能爆出財政問題,兩國政府最新拍賣的一批債券反應遠遠不及預期。如果想增加債券吸引力,西班牙和葡萄牙就要提高債券息率,但這樣做會令借貸成本增加,等同增加政府的財政赤字。

歐盟最新估計葡萄牙、希臘和西班牙的財赤原本已經很嚴重,去年的財赤佔國內生產總值接近甚至超過百分之十,如果再惡化,市場恐怕三個國家無力還債,後果可以很嚴重,最壞的情況是西班牙和葡萄牙一旦爆煲,會牽連整個歐洲甚至令歐元區瓦解,引發另一場全球金融危機。

可否避過這個最壞情況,保住西班牙是關鍵,因為西班牙的經濟規模相當大,在歐元區排第四大,差不多等如希臘、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭加起來的兩倍,但現時西班牙的失業人口高達四百萬,過去可以靠低利率去撐經濟,但金融海嘯後國家稅收減少,又不可以透過貨幣貶值去應付今次危機,如果連低息這武器都失去,的確有機會步希臘後塵爆發信貸危機。

面對種種危機,西班牙政府對國家財政和經濟復蘇仍然樂觀,聲稱有一系列政策去降低財赤。人稱「末日博士」的魯賓尼早前在達沃斯世界經濟論壇上曾經表示,一旦西班牙倒下,恐怕會對歐元區釀成災難。

而金融界對葡萄牙、愛爾蘭、希臘和西班牙四個歐元區內高負債率的計時炸彈,用她們國家英文名字頭開了個玩笑叫做PIGS,這四國曾被寄望是歐元區經濟發展的新引擎,但自金融海嘯後已變成歐洲經濟復蘇絆腳石。

Yes, cuz can't use printing press.

Disney 1Q EPS down

Bilibala: it is possible Disney's EPS will go down cuz advertising contact was signed in 2009 when the economy is under recession. To me, I think the EPS will be the same as last year.

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Family entertainment giant The Walt Disney Co., which just absorbed Marvel Entertainment Inc., reports earnings for its fiscal first quarter after the market closes Tuesday.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: The advertising recovery will likely help Disney's ABC and ESPN television networks, but the question is by how much.

Disney's movie studio, which has been faltering lately, will likely cause a drag on earnings. The company overhauled management at the department in October and recently closed offices at niche label Miramax Films, which some competitors are interested in buying.

Consumer sentiment should be reflected in the performance of the company's theme parks. It is unclear how soon Disney will be able to wean itself off discounting to keep attendance up.

Also, Disney executives may discuss the possibility of entering into a deal to provide movies and TV shows to Apple Inc.'s iPad, which may help studio earnings down the road. Apple CEO Steve Jobs remains Disney's largest shareholder since the entertainment company bought Pixar in 2006.

WHY IT MATTERS: Disney is closely tethered to consumer psychology because the brand is well known around the world. It sells products ranging from movies and books to clothes and toys. A good quarter could bolster confidence in the broader economy.

WHAT'S EXPECTED: Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Disney to post 39 cents of adjusted earnings per share on sales of $9.62 billion.

LAST YEAR'S QUARTER: Disney reported an adjusted profit of 41 cents per share on revenue of $9.60 billion.

2.04.2010

Buffett Loses Last AAA Rating as S&P Cuts Berkshire

Bilibala: now day, holding an AAA credit rating means nothing. With such low interest rate, if cash flow is not an issue, why not borrow and invest? This hold true to corporation and so to individual.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-04/buffett-loses-last-aaa-rating-as-s-p-cuts-berkshire-update1-.html
(Adds shares in sixth paragraph, S&P comment in 11th.)
By Andrew Frye

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. was stripped of its last AAA credit rating by Standard & Poor’s after the billionaire investor agreed to buy railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

Berkshire, which is taking on debt to fund the $26 billion takeover, was cut one level to AA+ from S&P’s highest grade, the ratings firm said today in a statement. The downgrade comes the same day Berkshire filed to sell $8 billion of notes to fund the Burlington Northern purchase, and concludes a review that S&P announced on Nov. 4, the day after Berkshire disclosed the deal.
“The railroad acquisition will reduce what historically has been extremely strong capital adequacy and liquidity,” S&P said. “Risk tolerances appear to have increased.”

Buffett, 79, has called the railroad takeover an “all-in wager” on the U.S. economy. Berkshire lost its top credit grades at Fitch Ratings in March and at Moody’s Investors Service in April amid a slump in the firm’s manufacturing, retail and travel units. The earlier downgrades were on concern about Buffett’s successor and the firm’s derivative bets.

The ratings firms “are hedging their bets in the event of another economic downturn,” said Michael Yoshikami, chief investment strategist at Berkshire shareholder YCMNet Advisors. Buffett’s firm is “expanding in economically sensitive businesses, like the railroads,” he said.
Berkshire’s Class A shares fell $3,250, or 2.9 percent, to $108,450 at 2:07 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Buffett didn’t respond to a request for comment left with an assistant.

Wounded Pride
General Electric Co. and drugmaker Pfizer Inc. are among companies that lost their top credit grades from S&P in the past year. Berkshire, which Buffett built into a $170 billion company over four decades, was raised to AAA at S&P in 1989.

Berkshire reported its first loss since 2001 in the first quarter of 2009 as Buffett’s stock bets soured. The firm returned to profit in the second and third quarters as equity indexes advanced. Still, losses at Berkshire’s NetJets subsidiary and earnings declines at Clayton Homes contributed to a pretax profit plunge of more than half at Berkshire’s manufacturing, service and retailing units in the first nine months of 2009.

Spending the Stockpile
Buffett, the second-richest American, positioned Berkshire to weather a contraction in the U.S. economy by stockpiling $44 billion in cash. Starting in 2008, when corporate borrowing costs surged, he drew on that hoard to finance Goldman Sachs Group Inc., GE, Swiss Reinsurance Co. and the Mars Inc. takeover of chewing-gum maker Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co. Berkshire had about $26.9 billion of cash as of Sept. 30.

“Albeit weakened, we view the company’s liquidity position and balance sheet as still very strong.,” S&P said.

Berkshire is using $8 billion of the cash stockpile on the purchase of Forth Worth, Texas-based Burlington Northern, and said in the debt prospectus today it plans to sell $8 billion of senior unsecured notes. The notes may be sold as soon as today, according to a person familiar with the offering. The railroad deal is expected to be completed this quarter.

Buffett, Berkshire’s chairman and chief executive officer, said in May that the loss of top credit grades from Fitch and Moody’s had “no economic impact” on Berkshire. “My pride may be wounded just a bit,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Bond Yields
Corporate debt with an AA rating yields an average of 3.72 percent, or 12 basis points more than AAA bonds, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data as of yesterday. That means companies ranked AA pay an average of $1.2 million a year in extra interest costs on $1 billion of debt. The spread between AAA debt and AA bonds has tightened about 59 basis points since the beginning of 2009.

Berkshire’s AA+ ranking is between S&P’s AAA and AA ratings. The company’s 4 percent notes due in 2012 fell 0.13 cents on the dollar to 105.5 cents to yield 1.42 percent, or a spread of 60 basis points more than similar-maturity Treasuries, as of 10:34 a.m. New York time, according to Trace, the bond- price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

S&P joins Fitch in citing concern about Buffett’s eventual departure from the company. Buffett has said he’ll be replaced by three or more people: a CEO from a list he and the board of directors keep, at least one person to manage investments and his son Howard Buffett, who has been picked to be the next chairman to carry on Berkshire’s corporate culture.

‘Ongoing Concern’
“Uncertainty surrounding management succession and management structure, corporate culture, and business strategy following an eventual transition of the company’s leadership from current CEO Warren Buffett is an ongoing concern,” S&P said. “This, in our view, is only partially mitigated by a board-approved succession plan.”

Mohnish Pabrai, the founder of Irvine, California-based Pabrai Investment Funds and a Berkshire shareholder, said the ratings company cut the grade because it “doesn’t like the uncertainty.”

“There is a very clear-cut succession plan, but he hasn’t shared it with Mr. S and Mr. P,” Pabrai said. Berkshire has “a very deep bench” of potential replacements.

The ratings company lowered Berkshire’s long-term counterparty credit rating and the financial strength ratings on the company’s main insurance operations to AA+ from AAA.

Berkshire and its subsidiaries cut about 3,000 jobs since December and now employ about 222,000 people, the company said in the debt prospectus today. That’s 1.3 percent less than the figure the company reported six weeks ago, and almost 10 percent below the 246,083 disclosed in the company’s 2008 annual report.

--With assistance from John Detrixhe in New York. Editors: Erik Holm, Dan Kraut
To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at +1-212-617-1869 or afrye@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Kraut at +1-212-617-2432 or dkraut2@bloomberg.net

2.01.2010

Bilibala Finance Portfolio - Jan 10

Top 10 Holdings @ Jan 31, 10

  1. China Life (10.0%) M/M
  2. China Mobile 1.1% M/M
  3. Google (14.5%) M/M
  4. Wells Fargo 5.3% M/M
  5. China Cons Bank (10.3%) M/M
  6. Manulife 1.1% M/M
  7. Berkshire Hathaway 16.3% M/M
  8. Imperial Oil / Exxon Mobil (5.5%) M/M
  9. General Electric 6.3% M/M
  10. HSBC (6.3%) M/M

Top 5 Sectors in Holdings @ Jan 31, 10

  1. Insurance 34.0%
  2. Telecom 25.8%
  3. Banking 13.4%
  4. Info Tech 7.8%
  5. Conglomerate 6.1%

Top 5 subtotal to 87.2%

Performance & Market Stat @ Jan 31, 10

  • Toronto down 5.5% in Jan, 05-10 average return 3.7%
  • S&P500 down 3.7% in Jan, 05-10 average return (2.4%)
  • Hong Kong down 8.0% in Jan, 05-10 average return 7.1%
  • Shanghai down 8.8% in Jan, 05-10 average return 18.4%
  • Bilibala Finance down 5.4% in Jan, 05-10 average return 24.1%
The information provided in the entire blog is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax or specific investment advice. The information presented was obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, I cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. I assume no responsibility for any losses, whether direct, special or consequential, that arise out of the use of this information. This information is subject to change without notice. Stock performance are not guaranteed, their prices change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please do your own investigation, or contact your own professional advise, before investing.