Life Term Strategies

1. Huge Gains in Long Term
- Receive significant capital gains
- by investing in corporations
- (with wide economic moat & average peers’ net margin)
- In very very long term

2. Strong Periodic Cash Flow
- Maintain self-sufficient monthly cash flow
- Through dividend, gains on derivative & short term trading
- For re-investment to item # 1 mentioned above

3. Mind for Risk Management
- Ensure strong cash position
- Maintain low risk by continue monitor, analyze & feel:
economic trend & environment,
market condition & investors emotion
corporate performance & outlook
asset allocation & direction

4. Be a holy Christian investor:
- Invest in wisdom & varies ways, but consistent & not over nor under of what the Holy Bible expects a Jesus follower should be
- Keep regular & long term spiritual growth
Continue experience God @ finance market
Aim for life transform opportunities
- Even though it may not teach Billy & Bilibala what stocks to invest nor how to make more, more & more $

1.27.2010

Google & GooJJe

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60Q1ZC20100127?type=technologyNews?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology

BEIJING (Reuters) - A Google knock-off has surfaced in China to compete with the world's largest search engine, while at the same time pleading with it to stay in the country despite censorship and hacking allegations.

=> an interesting news, how creative & smart to build up a search website (not search engine) call "GooJJe".

Adding to China's reputation for copies of items such as designer clothes, coffee chains and DVDs, "Goojje" began vying with Google on January 14, the Henan Business Daily reported.

Google Inc had said two days earlier that it may close its Chinese Google.cn portal and pull out of China.

The name chosen by the newcomer is a play on words. The final syllable "jje" sounds like the Chinese word "older sister," while the "gle" syllable of "Google" is pronounced like the Chinese word for "older brother."

Goojje (www.goojje.com) has a search engine and provides social networking services. Its home page bears a Google-styled logo that combines hallmarks from the "older brother" and China's top home-grown search engine, Baidu Inc.

"Sister was very happy when brother gave up the thought of leaving and stayed for sister," the website says, in an apparent call for Google to stay in China.

Google was not immediately available for comment about the Goojje site.
Earlier this month, U.S.-based Google complained of censorship and a sophisticated hacking attack from within the country.

Keyword search results in Goojje give slightly different results than Google or Baidu but appear to be similarly filtered to avoid content China deems sensitive.

The Henan Business Daily said Goojje was founded by a female college student in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong. Contacted by Reuters, Goojje's web host declined to give details on the site's owner.
(Reporting by Yu Le and Ralph Jennings; Editing by Alex Richardson)

Berkshire surges after being chosen for S&P 500

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60Q43G20100127?feedType=nl&feedName=usdai

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc surged on Wednesday after Standard & Poor's said it will add the company run by billionaire Warren Buffett to its S&P 500 stock index.

=> Berkshire Hathaway finally in S&P, this is a good news to lots of investors. On the other hand, stock price in long run in line with its earning performance (EPS) instead of whether it is in or out of an index. Therefore, this short term new is irrelevant to Bilibala's fair value on Berkshire Hathaway calculation. I personally think Berkshire Hathaway (class B share) worth US$120.

Berkshire's Class B shares rose $3.20, or 4.7 percent, to $71.20 in morning trading. The Omaha, Nebraska-based company's Class A shares rose $5,064, or 5 percent, to $106,815.

"Many Berkshire shares are in the hands of investors, including Buffett, who are unlikely to sell," said James Armstrong, president of Henry H. Armstrong Associates in Pittsburgh. "That could produce a larger than normal spike in the stock price because it is being added to the index."

S&P late Tuesday said Berkshire will replace Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp in the S&P 500, and the S&P 100 index of big blue-chip companies, on a date to be announced.

Berkshire is buying Burlington, the second-largest U.S. railroad company, in a roughly $26.4 billion stock-and-cash transaction expected to close as soon as next month.

Buffett, the world's second-richest person, will still own about one-fourth of Berkshire's stock after the merger closes.

The addition of Berkshire to the S&P 500 follows the Omaha, Nebraska-based company's 50-for-1 split last week of its B shares to make it easier for Burlington investors to swap their shares for Berkshire shares in a tax-free way.

Adding Berkshire to the S&P 500 also forces the portfolio managers who track the index to buy its shares. They may have to pay up because most Berkshire investors consider the stock a long-term investment.

"The split made it easier for small investors to buy, and when index investors have to buy the stock, that increases demand even more," said Vahan Janjigian, author of "Even Buffett Isn't Perfect: What You Can -- and Can't -- Learn from the World's Greatest Investor."

Despite its $158 billion market value, Berkshire was long excluded from the S&P 500 because its shares were not liquid enough. It is the largest publicly-traded U.S. company not in the index.
The company had no comment on the S&P announcement.

Berkshire operates roughly 80 businesses including Geico insurance, Dairy Queen ice cream and Fruit of the Loom undergarments. It also has tens of billions of dollars of stock and bond investments.

Last week Buffett told CNBC television the stock split could give Berkshire about 700,000 investors.

S&P is a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos.
(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel. Editing by Robert MacMillan)

Shares of Toyota fall on suspend

Shares of Toyota Motor Co., along with parts makers and retailers with exposure to the Japanese auto maker, dropped after the company suspended sales of eight models in the U.S. and Canada in response to growing concerns about sticky accelerator pedals.

=> Bilibala think this will only have short term impact to sales and profit and don't think it will harm the brand name too seriously, assume this only last for 1 week.


The halt—which includes the Camry and Corolla sedans, two of the biggest sellers in North America—follows two major safety recalls in the last five months over sudden unintended acceleration concerns. The first recall, the company's biggest ever, at 4.2 million vehicles, was caused by improperly installed floor mats, according to Toyota. It recalled an additional 2.3 million vehicles, though most of the vehicles in the second recall, about 1.7 million, were part of the earlier action.


Toyota shares were recently down 7.6%.
Toyota said it will stop producing the affected vehicles at several North American plants for one week starting Feb. 1.


The news weighed on American depositary shares of Toyota, which were recently down 7.6% to $80.19. Fellow Japanese auto maker Honda Motor Co. Ltd. slid 1.6% to $33.95, though analysts said the company could benefit from Toyota's problems.


Toyota, which last year surpassed General Motors Co. to become the world's largest auto maker by sales, has long been viewed as a leader in automotive quality, and the sales halt raises some concerns about whether the auto company has sacrificed quality in its quest to capture global market share.


"We believe the company's once pristine 'quality' reputation is tarnished and will likely result in market share loss over next one to two years," Buckingham Research analyst Joseph C. Amaturo said in a note. "Historically, quality issues have had a profound impact on sales, especially when incidents resulted in media-publicized personal fatality."


Wall Street Strategies analyst David Silver said the impact on Toyota depends on how long the sales are halted. The eight models represented 57% of Toyota's 2009 U.S. sales.
"If it's a week [halt], then we'll see muted impact for the whole year," Silver said. "But even if this lasts two days, January sales are going to be down dramatically."


He said that could be good news for Ford Motor Co. and other auto makers as consumers wanting to buy cars look at their offerings. Ford shares recently gained 1.9% to $11.40.
"If someone was going to buy a Corolla or a Camry, if they need the car now, they're not going to wait," Silver said. "If they're not set on a Camry, they might go look at the other auto makers. It brings in more competition."


Auto parts makers declined on the news, with Buckingham's Amaturo noting the companies will likely be hurt by near-term production halts, as well as longer-term market share loss.
CTS Corp., which supplies the part believed to have caused the problem for Toyotas, fell 7.2% to $8.01. Gentex Corp., which Amaturo said derives about 13% of its sales from Toyota, slipped 13 cents to $17.30, while BorgWarner Inc. declined 3.1% to $35.10. Autoliv Inc. slid 1.2% to $41.02.
Meanwhile, auto retailers with significant Toyota/Lexus exposure also dropped, includingGroup 1 Automotive Inc., which fell 7.6% to $29.07, and Penske Automotive Group Inc., which lost 4.4% to $14.18. AutoNation Inc. slipped 2.2% to $18.14.


Analysts said nearly 40% of Group 1's new units are from Toyota, while about 20% of Penske's cars are from the Japanese auto maker. Amaturo said the companies' service and parts businesses could benefit from the recall, though long-term negatives will likely outweigh short-term benefits.


Wells Fargo Securities analyst Matt Nemer estimates that each week of suspended sales leads to a loss of about $850,000 to $1.5 million in gross profit and a loss of 1 cent to 2 cents in earnings a week for the public dealers. He said new vehicle sales generate about 30% of gross profit.
"However, the impact of new vehicle sales to the bottom line is likely lower given the high expense of running the business including sales commissions, advertising and inventory financing," Mr. Nemer noted, adding that the sales stoppage also affects used vehicles for the models.


He said he would encourage long-term investors to add to positions on any severe weakness as checks indicate the issue could be resolved relatively quickly and service and parts revenue related to the recalls "creates a significant opportunity, which potentially overshadows a few weeks of lost unit sales."

1.22.2010

Bilibala mailbox - Google 4q09 result

Just reviewed Google’s 4q09 result, looks awesome!!! I mean really awesome.
GAAP EPS up to US$6.13, non GAAP up to US$6.79
· Revenue up 12.3% vs 3q09 (partly thanks to FX gain when US$ fall further in 4q09)
· Gross margin up 2.2% to 63.9% vs 3q09
· Operating margin up 6.6% to 37.2% vs 3q09

I will increase my 2010 estimated EPS to US$26.42 & US$29.3.
I decided to keep my fair value (by the end of 2014) at US$1,200. It is kind of too good to be truth, isn’t it.
Realistically, I think the 12 months target price should go up from $570 to US$660 (I guess such target price is similar to Wall Street Analysts)

The after-market share price fall 5% to US$552.

Overall EPS above all analysts expectation, is just revenue fall short for some of the analysts. Again, it depends on how people interpret information.

After all, stupid people interpret everything stupidly, smart people interpret everything smartly.

1.21.2010

Bilibala mailbox 10/01/21

Question:
brk.b goes up to 72 this morning. is it too high to buy? or focus onwfc? how about mfc? why u suggest to buy more? thanks

Answer:
Berkshire Hathaway
Berkshire Hathaway go up these 2 days from $65.0 (or $3,250 before split) to above $72.0 because of
  • the stock split which trigger the transaction volume to go up because the price is lot more "attractive" & "relatively cheaper" in an irrational investment sense after it dropped from $3,300 to only $66.0
  • Warren Buffett indirectly mentioned in an interview that the stock price is undervalue

In long run, Berkshire Hathaway's price is still undervalue, however, to most of the investors, will refuse to buy when it is going up.

On the other hand, stock split has no impact to the value of a company, if i assume everything else is constant, price will adjust back to where it should be after a short term rally.

Wells Fargo
I have a better idea on Wells Fargo’s 2010 outlook after a flash review of its 4q09 and 2009 results. I think its EPS should be able to rise from US$1.75 in 2009 to US$2.85 & US$3.05 in 2010 & 2011. Given the following:

  • Continue improve in net interest margin
  • Expect the loan provision to drop smoothly in 2010 and further in 2011
  • Paid off the $25B TARP in 4q09 – will save $420M dividend expenses per qtr
  • House market recover Its 12 months target price should at least be US$34.77.

I personally think Wells Fargo worth US$60.0 by the end of 2014 (5 years from now).Given the current stock price is US$27.82 (01/20/10’s closed), there will be a potential return of 25% in the coming 12 months.

Manulife Financial
I see significant improve in investors confident to equity market. Manulife’s 4Q sales should improve while sum at risk will fall. Bilibala increases its fair value from C$31 to C$35.
I need to review its 4q09 & 2009 result before I can hold firm on my opinion.

1.20.2010

China Mobile new subscribers in Dec 09

中国移动公布了2009年12月主要运营数据,该数据显示,截至12月31日,中国移动用户总数已达到5.22亿户,其中12月使用TD网络服务的用户数为340.8万户。

  在本月13日召开的中国移动2010年工作会议上,中国移动总裁王建宙透露,截至2009年年底,TD用户已经达到551万。对于这200余万的用户数据差异,暂无权威解释。

  数据显示,截至12月31日,中国移动2009年累计客户净增长6503.3万户,平均每月净增长541.9万户。数据显示,中国移动12月净 增用户423.8万户,较11月份净增457.9万户继续放缓;12月底用户总数达到5.22亿户,其中12月使用TD网络服务的用户数为340.8万 户。

1.12.2010

Bilibala Finance Portfolio - Dec 09

Top 10 Holdings @ Dec 31, 09

  1. China Life (3.1%) M/M
  2. China Mobile (0.9%) M/M
  3. Google 6.3% M/M
  4. China Cons Bank (3.3%) M/M
  5. Wells Fargo (3.7%) M/M
  6. Manulife 4.8% M/M
  7. Imperial Oil / Exxon Mobil (0.3%) M/M
  8. Berkshire Hathaway (2.0%) M/M
  9. General Electric (5.6%) M/M
  10. HSBC (3.3%) M/M

Top 5 Sectors in Holdings @ Dec 31, 09

  1. Insurance 35.8%
  2. Telecom 25.6%
  3. Banking 13.6%
  4. Info Tech 7.1%
  5. Conglomerate 5.1%

Top 5 subtotal to 87.2%

Performance & Market Stat @ Dec 31, 09

  • Bilibala Finance down 1.4% in Dec & up 115.2% from bottom, 05-09 average return 25.9%
  • Toronto up 2.6% in Dec & up 57.0% from bottom, 05-09 average return 4.9%
  • S&P500 up 1.8% in Dec & up 67.2% from bottom, 05-09 average return (1.7%)
  • Hong Kong up 1.7% in Dec & up 104.9% from bottom, 05-09 average return 9.0%
  • Shanghai up 2.6% in Dec & up 96.8% from bottom, 05-09 average return 20.9%

China Bank raise deposit in reserve

Bilibala: it is a good way to prevent over-value on assets. Bank makes enough money from borrowers and depositers, so it should be ok for all parties.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60B1SZ20100112?feedType=nl&feedName=usbusinessearly

BEIJING (Reuters) - China on Tuesday raised the proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve, in the clearest sign yet that it has started to tighten monetary policy with its economy roaring back to the brink of overheating.

The 0.5 percentage point increase in the reserve requirement ratio will take effect on January 18 and will apply to all banks apart from rural credit cooperatives, the People's Bank of China said on its website (www.pbc.gov.cn).

It was the first time that the central bank adjusted the ratio since it lowered the ratio in December 2008 as part of its loosening cycle at the time.

Many in the market had thought that China might increase RRR before it lifted interest rates, but the move came far earlier than expected amid concerns that a renewed surge in bank lending was flooding the economy with too much cash.

Shi Lei, an analyst at Bank of China in Beijing, said there could two or three more RRR increases before June.

"The reserve ratio hike is a strong signal the central bank is stepping up efforts to absorb excessive liquidity," Shi said. "The hike may drain about 200-300 billion yuan from the market but it really needs to drain about 700-800 billion yuan."

The RRR increase also followed two other tightening steps taken by the central bank on Tuesday.

The central bank raised the yield on its 20 billion yuan ($2.9 billion) in one-year bills by about 8 basis points (bps) to 1.8434 percent after holding it steady in the previous 20 auctions, compared with a median forecast among traders that it would go up by just 4 bps.

It also drained a record 200 billion yuan via 28-day bond repurchase agreements, ensuring it will draw net funds from the market this week.

"This is exactly what happens with Chinese policy. They say fine tuning. It never happens that way. It's always nothing or boom," Ken Peng, an analyst with Citigroup in Beijing said.
"When they reach a consensus, it happens very quickly," he added.

The tightening steps come after reports that bank lending surged in the first week of the year to 600 billion yuan, adding to concerns fueled by blockbuster trade data for December that the world's third-largest economy is overheating.

(Editing by Andy Bruce)

1.11.2010

Transportation Issues in China

http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1011/9/2/9/101192921.html?coluid=0&kindid=0&docid=101192921&mdate=0109080616

Bilibala: Compare between China's RAilway, Highway and Airway, good insight.

中評社北京1月9日電/元旦剛過,中國華北與東北大部分地區出現了強降雪天氣。受此影響,北方交通嚴重受阻。截至日前,共有8個省(市、區)15條高速公路、3條國道局部關閉,上千架航班或延誤或取消。奇怪的是,來自鐵路的受阻信息不多。

  上海證券報發表媒體評論人亞夫文章表示,這場大雪其實下出了中國交通建設突出的結構性問題,下出了公路與航空運輸的“嬌嫩與金貴”,下出了鐵路的優勢。尤其是在“鐵(路)、公(路)、機(場)”結構上反映出來的經濟效益、社會效益與環境效益問題,更值得反思。

  先來看一組數據。據國家統計局統計,1990年中國的公路里程為103萬公里,其中的500公里是首次出現的高速公路。經過20年建設,到2008年中國的公路里程迅速上升至373萬公里,翻了三番;而高速公路的建設更為驚人,里程為6萬公里,20年翻了十倍。

  再來看民航和鐵路的情況。1990年中國的民航航線里程是15萬公里,到2008年快速上升至246萬公里,20年增長16倍。而同期的鐵路 建設則非常緩慢。1978年,鐵路營業里程為5萬公里,1990年為5. 8萬公里,到2008年,鐵路營業里程則緩步增長到8萬公里。20年增長不到 40%。

  這組數據大致反映了近20年來中國鐵路、公路、航空這三大主要交通系統的建設情況與差異情況。這樣的建設布局是不是最優的選擇或次優選擇呢?不妨從經濟、環境與社會效益這三個方面來檢視一下。

  文章認為,從經濟效益看,這種“鐵、公、機”比例架構是最值得商榷的。據專業人士介紹,在中國,鐵路、公路與航空的單位運輸成本之比大致為1 比6.4比9.35。鐵路建設用地為四車道高速公路的1/2,完成單位運輸量所占土地面積為公路的1/10。能量消耗為公路的1/3。如果採用電氣技術, 鐵路運輸從北京到天津的人均耗電量只有1.5度,單位能耗僅為波音747飛機的3%。

  也就是說,這20年來,發展速度最慢的鐵路運輸,恰恰是成本最低、能效最高,土地占用最少的運輸形式。尤其是對土地的節省,其意義已超越經 濟。更不用說這三種交通形式之間,其實際運能與道路利用率和維護成本了。比如,這次大雪就有18條高速路與國道封閉,參與搶通人員多達8萬多人次、動用機 械18000多台次。在大雪面前,鐵、公、機誰更嬌嫩,立馬可判。

  從社會效益看,這種“鐵、公、機”架構同樣也值得反思。據統計,改革開放30年來,中國全社會的貨源總量從1978年的24.9億噸增長到 2008年的259億噸,翻了近十倍;客運量從25.4億人次增長到287億人次,也翻了超過十倍。而鐵路運輸在與公路、航空、水運、管道等運輸媒介的競 爭中,承擔的貨運與客運量分別為36%和32.4%。

  也就是說,近30年來,投資力度最小、發展速度最慢的鐵路系統,正在承擔著超過全社會三分之一的貨運和客運業務。特別是它的服務人群,主要是 占人口比重最大的中低收入者,而高速公路上跑的轎車、航空運輸中乘坐的客人則很少有低收入者。換句話說,這些年來,用於交通建設的大量投資,更多地服務了 少數高收入群體。其社會效益如何,誠可一議。

  另外,再從環境效益看,目前的“鐵、公、機”架構對環境的影響,更值得反思。據介紹,在交通事故對環境污染的外部成本中,鐵路占1.9%,航 空占6.1%,公路占91.5%。在減排方面,鐵路運輸每公里碳排放約為汽車和飛機的1/6和1/3至1/20。而每年占總量33.6%的運輸類石油消費 中,主要都用於公路與航空運輸,不僅有大量的減排問題,更有對石油消費的可持續性問題。

  文章指出,又“嬌嫩”又“金貴”的公路與航空運輸,不僅有代價大、成本高、服務人群少的問題,還有一系列環境問題。不僅很難做到全天候服務, 而且一年中,總會有幾次“撒嬌”,為了掃雪清障,還需要大量投入。比如,這次大雪,僅在華北部分地區就已經布撒了29460噸融雪劑、104936方防滑 料、2950噸融雪鹽。這些化學物質對土壤和水環境會有什麼影響?

  由此觀察,正在加大力度實施的“鐵、公、機”建設,真需要反思一下。

1.06.2010

Warren against Kraft's deal

Bilibala: When you go to supermarket, u wish u will receive discount on things u need and u want to buy, same apply to investment. Value is your choice. You can invest or acquire something for the purpose of just keep expanding. You need to growth in the better and smart way!!

By Andrew Frye
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett, who worked behind the scenes to undermine Coca-Cola Co.’s bid for Quaker Oats 10 years ago, has gone public to rein in Kraft Foods Inc.’s Irene Rosenfeld in her quest to acquire Cadbury Plc.

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Kraft’s biggest shareholder, said today that Rosenfeld was seeking a “blank check” and urged fellow investors to oppose her plan to authorize the issuance as many as 370 million shares. Northfield, Illinois-based Kraft, which has bid 10.6 billion pounds ($17 billion) for Cadbury, first announced its intention in September to buy the company.

“It’s unusual for Berkshire to put out any sort of comment like this publicly,” said Glenn Tongue, a partner at T2 Partners LLC, which holds investments in Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire and Kraft and doesn’t want the foodmaker to increase its bid. “As a shareholder I love seeing this because at the current offer this deal makes plenty of sense.”

Buffett, who has said shareholders need to act like owners, is calling for caution in negotiations after Cadbury said Kraft’s offer was insufficient. In publicly urging investors to join him, the 79-year-old Berkshire chairman is drawing on his power as a 9.4-percent owner of Kraft and the standing he’s gained in financial markets as the world’s preeminent investor.

“If he says no, everybody else is going to pile on and say no too,” said Justin Fuller, a partner at Midway Capital Research & Management who runs the buffettologist.com Web site.

Berkshire said it may support a Cadbury takeover if it concludes this month that the final offer “does not destroy value for Kraft shareholders.” Buffett didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on what terms he would endorse.

‘Expensive Proposition’

“I don’t think that he’s opposed to the acquisition, I think he’s opposed to the use of stock,” said Gerald Martin, a finance professor at American University’s Kogod School of Business in Washington. “He feels that the shares are so undervalued that it would be an expensive proposition.”

Buffett won a global following as the “Oracle of Omaha” by profiting from investments in out-of-favor stocks and businesses. Berkshire, the biggest shareholder in Coca-Cola, American Express Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., used profits last year to buy stock in some of the world’s biggest companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Kraft rival Nestle SA.

Buffett was the most vocal dissenter on Atlanta-based Coca- Cola’s board when directors met in 2000 to discuss a $15.3 billion bid by then-Chief Executive Officer Douglas Daft for Quaker Oats, the maker of Gatorade, Cap’n Crunch cereal and Rice-A-Roni. Buffett argued the price was too high because a stock swap proposed as part of the deal would give up more than 10 percent of Coca-Cola, board member James Williams said in a 2004 interview.

‘Very Scarce’

The board voted against the acquisition and PepsiCo Inc. bought Quaker Oats instead, completing the purchase in August 2001 for $14 billion.

“I’m not surprised that Berkshire would resist issuing shares,” said Tom Russo, partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner, which holds Berkshire, Cadbury and Vevey, Switzerland-based Nestle. Buffett “has had the longstanding belief that equity capital is very scarce.”

Rosenfeld, CEO at Kraft since 2006, is seeking to buy the U.K.-based maker of Creme Eggs and Trident gum to expand its business outside the U.S. Kraft raised the cash portion of the Cadbury bid today after agreeing to sell pizza brands including DiGiorno and Tombstone to Nestle, the world’s largest food company.

Cadbury fell 3.2 percent to 779 pence in London, the biggest drop in eight months. Kraft added 91 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $28.34 at 3:11 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. That values Berkshire’s stake at more than $3.9 billion.

‘Very Expensive Currency’

Buffett said Kraft shares were “very expensive ‘currency’” after falling about 17 percent in the two years ended last week, and he criticized management for seeking to issue stock at current prices after repurchasing shares at $33 in 2007. Kraft executives “have to do a lot of things right to justify this price,” Buffett said in a September interview on CNBC.

“We agree that Kraft Foods shares are deeply undervalued,” the foodmaker said in a statement. “We intend to remain disciplined in this process.”

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Warren Buffett came out against Kraft's (KFT.N) $16.8 billion hostile offer for Britain's Cadbury (CBRY.L) as a threat to shareholder value, undermining the U.S. foodmaker's attempt to woo investors with a sweeter bid.

Deals
Kraft Chief Executive Irene Rosenfeld had sought to grab Cadbury investors' attention by raising the cash portion of its bid on Tuesday. But the rare intervention by Buffett a few hours later showed she has yet to win over Kraft's largest shareholder and one of the world's most admired investors, as well as giving Cadbury new ammunition in its defense.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) said in a statement it was voting against Kraft's proposal to float 370 million shares to fund the Cadbury bid while the company's stock remains undervalued, calling it a request for a blank check from shareholders. The company holds 9.4 percent of Kraft.

Berkshire said it could reconsider its vote if convinced the bid does not destroy shareholder value. Kraft could also ultimately offer fewer shares.

"It's very unusual for Buffett to speak out like this," said Justin Fuller, an analyst who follows Berkshire for Midway Capital Research & Management and publishes the Buffettologist.com blog.

"Cadbury doesn't want to do a deal at this price and this resistance from Kraft's largest shareholder hurts the deal's chances of getting done."

Cadbury Chairman Roger Carr quickly seized on the Berkshire statement as a sign that Rosenfeld was being squeezed in her most ambitious gambit yet as CEO.

"Kraft talks about discipline in making their derisory offer but it's really about management weakness," Carr said in a statement. "Their offer is limited by powerful Kraft shareholders restricting the stock content and constrained by Kraft's rating agencies limiting the cash content."

A source familiar with the situation said Kraft had been in constant communication with its largest shareholder throughout the Cadbury bid process, and that Buffett was apprised of Kraft's position before the Tuesday announcement.

But it appeared that the two sides did not see eye-to-eye, prompting the Berkshire statement.
"If Buffett votes against something -- that carries a great deal of weight with other shareholders .... When he says no, no is what he says and means," said Jerry Bruni, CEO and portfolio manager of J.V. Bruni and Co, based in Colorado Springs, Co.

Kraft shares were up 3.5 percent Tuesday afternoon while Cadbury slipped 3.2 percent. Cadbury shares are trading about 3 percent higher than Kraft's current offer, down from a spread of about 10 percent on Monday.

NESTLE DEAL FUNDS REVISED KRAFT OFFER
Earlier, Kraft revised its 10.4 billion pound ($16.8 billion) bid, offering shareholders the option of an additional 60 pence cash per share for the maker of Dairy Milk chocolate and Trident gum.
The extra cash brings the cash portion to 360p and is funded from a deal whereby Switzerland's Nestle (NESN.VX) will buy Kraft's North American frozen pizza business for $3.7 billion. Nestle also ruled itself out of any bid war for Cadbury.

Rosenfeld has stuck to her guns since her initial approach to Cadbury late last summer, determined not to overpay and convinced that a rival bidder would not emerge. Some Buffett watchers believe she could yet bring the Sage of Omaha on board.

"I don't think he's throwing a monkey wrench in the deal. This is Warren Buffett 101," said Frank Betz, a principal at Carret/Zane Capital Management LLP and an owner of Berkshire shares who has played bridge with Buffett.

A Kraft spokeswoman said the company agrees its shares are "deeply undervalued," would remain disciplined and would not do anything that hurts shareholder value.

"He is our largest investor and one of the most respected investors in the world, so of course we take his opinion seriously," she said of Buffett.

Cadbury shares fell to 779p on Tuesday, compared with Kraft's cash-and-share bid value of about 758p. Many analysts and investors still expect Kraft will need to pay 800 pence per share or above to win over Cadbury.

KRAFT STILL A FRONT-RUNNER
Buffett's surprise announcement overshadowed news that a key rival to Kraft took itself, and possibly other suitors, out of the running.

"Nestle's decision effectively leaves Kraft as the overwhelming front-runner .... Nestle's decision effectively removes Ferrero and Hershey from the field as competitive forces," said analyst Jeremy Batstone-Carr at Charles Stanley.

U.S.-based Hershey (HSY.N) and Italy's Ferrero expressed interest in bidding for Cadbury in November, but they need to come up with fully financed bids by January 23 to succeed under British rules. Analysts had expected Nestle might team up with Hershey, while Ferrero was seen as needing financial help.

Kraft said it would give detailed terms of the alternative cash offer by a January 19 deadline under British takeover rules. The U.S. food maker also extended its deadline for Cadbury shareholders to accept its offer to February 2.

(Additional reporting by Raji Menon, Victoria Howley, Jessica Hall, Michael Erman, Sam Cage, Jessica Wohl and Aaron Pressman; Editing by Richard Chang)
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