- US 4Q GDP down 6.2% (worse than expect down 5.4%), prior down 3.8%;
- US Feb consumer confidence down to 25 (worse, 35), prior 37.4;
- US 2008 house price index down 18.55% (worse, down 18.25%), prior mth -18.2%
- US Jan existing home sales down to 4.49M (worse, 4.79M), prior 4.74M
- US initial jobless up to 667k (worse, 625k), prior 631k
- US Jan durable goods orders down 5.2%, (worse, 2.5%), prior down 4.6%
- US Feb Chicago PMI up to 34.2, (better, 33.0), prior 33.3
- US Feb Mich Sentiment flat at 56.3, (same, 56.0), prior 56.2
GDP fall 6.2%, in a way it is good, lots of it due to corporation's goodwill impairment which do not take into account when the analyst forecast their expectation of 5.5% fall.
More news:
- US government's shares on CitiGroup will rise to 36%, kind of expected;
- Berkshire Hathaway's 2008 results and letter from CEO will be published tomorrow morning at 8:00pm, BRK's equity portfolio is estimated to fall $28B or 39% since 9/30/08. It is interesting to see how much BRK's book value will fall.
Obama's plan:
Obama has published the federal budget. $1.75T deficit, plan to cut it to 50% by 2013.
If the economy and the financial sector did not collapse, I think it is achieveable.
However, his GDP esitmation may sounds too optimatic. 2008 -1.3%, 2009 +3.2% and 2010 +4.0%. I don't think it is an easy task.
He also plan to rise tax on high income group, cut expenses on amry force and certain government admin fees. I think the plan is good. But in general, rise tax & cut government expenses will give pressure to the economy instead of give stimulus.
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