MFC forecasted it will loss $1.5B in 4Q08 due to lower of equity market. This brings the 2008 full year net income down from $4B to $1.1B or down 72.5% (EPS will down to $0.77). Finally, the financial result tie to what I expect to be reasonable (still a little higher, 4Q loss may go up to $2.0B instead of $1.5B in my opinion.)
Since my previous target value has already took into account of the 4Q loss by assuming its 2008 net income less dividend equal to zero. No assumption will be changed.
However, Manulife plan to raise $2.1B capital and borrow $2B from banks to maintain its AAA credit rating. Do so; it will dilute the share value of the existing shareholders by 7% or YTD average of 1.75%. So I will readjust my target value from CA$32 to CA$31. Given CA$20.0 per shares, it is still good buy.
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