Top holding in Asia/Europe 12/23/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1=> HK$43.34 BUY => STRONG BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 BUY
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$7.4=>HK$6.73 STRONG BUY

• China Life Share price fall mainly due to China stock market, however, premium up 19% in 2010, market shares kept at around 40%, new business value remain highly profitable, interest rate trend is favorable to China Life.
• There are potential 1-2% interest rate rise in China next year, therefore, I’ve readjusted China Life & Shiu On Land’s NPV to reflect such impact.

Bilibala Finance 101

The corporations u invest in has names, please stop calling just its symbol, show some respect and call their name, because you are investing in business, you are not gambling.

Top holding in Canada 12/10/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 => CA$47.82 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$41.10 HOLD

I finally completed my analysis on Imperial Oil. Based on its estimated 2011 oil & gas proven reserve & 2011-2015 average oil price of US$95 per bbl with a production cost of US$45, I’ve readjusted my NPV to CA$47.82. Oil price dropped from US$146 in 2008 down to US$36 in 2009 and slowly claim back to US$88, consistent with Bilabial’s estimation. Let’s see whether it will which the magic equilibrium point in US$100 in 2011.

Top holding in USA 12/10/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• Government decided to extend the tax cut policy for another 2 years, positive impact to retail & credit market
• Initial jobless claim fall to 421k this week, looks like the trend is continue to fall from 450k to 425k, positive sign on job market.
• BOD of General Electric increase dividends by 17% to 14 cents per shares per qtr, a positive sign on industrial sector capital loan market, no change to NPV.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 12/10/10

Asia / Europe
1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 BUY
5. Siu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY

Potential government intervention on real estate market and credit market makes the equity market looks flat compare to North America. On the other hand, I think those policies will keep the market stay healthy instead of “too hot”

Bilibala Finance 101 12/02/10

Only invest on business u know & have confidence on, it will help u stay with ur investment until the actual “harvest” period arrived

Top holding in Canada 12/02/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 BUY => HOLD
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$39.45 => CA$41.10 HOLD

• Last week, Ontario government propose the long term energy plan (LTEP), outlines the plan for Ontario power & transmission system for the next 20 years. Given the fact we may face a possible 24k MW deficiency in generation by 2025, the government plan to spend $87B to increased the MW from current 39k MW to 52k MW ($33B on refurbish the existing nuclear power plant; $27B on building new wind, solar & bio-energy power plant which will deliver 10.5k MW power). Given TransCanada invested heavily in nuclear & wind power, this government plan will have positive impact to TransCanada’s future earnings (Although we all upset cuz our electricity bill will double in 20 years – 3.5% per year)
• TD Bank release its 4q10 results, profit down 1.6% quarter to date & up 48.9% year to date compare to 2009. Excluding $121m 4q non-recurring tax provision, quarter to date profit actually up 10.4% which is on expectation. Deposit up 9.96%, loan up 6.67% and loan to deposit ratio down by 4.93% to 62.80% . I do not see any significant rise in revenue nor in profit for 2011. Given the fact that TD’s price earnings ratio & price per book value ratio are 14.40 & 1.66, it has already priced in.