Top holding in USA 12/02/10

USA
1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

• Google’s price fall $30 this week because Europe is investigating whether its searching engine has anti-trust issue. Currently, with 80% market share in Europe, Google for sure dominant the online search market. It is fine if it is because of customers loyalty, it will be charged if it is because Google give favor to sponsor link and set barriers to other website / competitors. In the past, Microsoft had lawsuit with the Europe Commission for years and end up settled the $2.0B fine. Intel also being charged $1.4B in 2009 by EU. To me, those lawsuit can be settled by fine while Google’s dominate position will not change.
• Did anyone of u watch Disney’s Tangled? It is a fun to watch movie, the characters are more human (instead of black & white) with great music & storyline.
• November interest rate move up, I think is time to invest more on insurance company and reduce investment on government & corporate bonds

Top holding in Asia/Europe 12/02/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 HOLD => BUY
5. Shiu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY

• Irish finally got its $$ and the next bond maturity bubble in Europe is Spain & Portugal. Wall street analysts make it sounds like a crisis. In fact, those are simply finding new bondholders to replace their old bonds.
• I think Europe will struggle with slow economy growth for years. The way Europe handle financial crisis is completely opposite than USA. In USA, the quantitative easing buy t-bills, increase money supply in order to prevent deflation, USA increase spending & Debt GDP ratio to boost economy. On the other hand, Europe focus on cutting expenses, reduce debt & reduce money supply. I still think quantitative easing will be a better approach.
• 2 weeks ago I said Hong Kong stock market climb up from 19,000 to 25,000, then drop back to 23,000 is a reasonable adjustments. You can see a strong support at 23,000. I think it will rise back to 25,000 soon.
• I don’t think North Korean issues is a big deal, there will not be a war, but the conflict will continue until I dunno, until North Korean leaders “golden” father & son collapsed, um……..say few years later.

Top holding in Canada 11/22/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC) CA$31.38 STRONG BUY
2. TD Bank (TD) CA$82.2 BUY
3. Imperial Oil (IMO) CA$45.2 BUY
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC) CA$ 42.7 HOLD
5. TransCanada (TRP) CA$39.45 HOLD

I am reviewing Imperial Oil’s 3q result, will share about it next time.

Top holding in USA 11/22/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG) US$745.1 BUY
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC) US$41.1 STRONG BUY
3. General Electric (GE) US$19.7 BUY
4. American Express (AXP) US$48.6 HOLD
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS) US$36.99 HOLD

Irish financial crisis: Investors over-react the impact: 1) Irish’s fund shortage is due to broken of real estate bubble & creating mortgage bad debt in many Irish banks. So Irish government inject capital to banks and ran out of $$ in short term; 2) It is not big crisis because:

• EU has $750B emerging fund to support any member country in need;
• The shortage is not due to long term structural credit issues;
• The debt renewal amount is lots smaller than Greek, while Irish’s economy is better than Greek

I think it will settle this week.

Top holding in Asia/Europe 11/22/10

1. China Mobile (0941/CHL) HK$96.4 BUY
2. China Life (2628/LFC) HK$41.1 BUY
3. China Construction Bank (0939) HK$8.97 BUY
4. Total SA (TOT) US$61.64 HOLD
5. Shiu On Land (0272) HK$7.4 STRONG BUY

• China increased bank reserve ratio by 50 bps to 18.5%, historical highest & reduce next year’s borrowing target for big 4 banks, which will reduce R$350B credit flow in market. These are some softer policies to cool down the “hot” money, although it may hurt the potential growth of the bank sector – whose profit rely heavily on borrowing & deposit, on the other hand, it will lower the credit risk and decelerate the growth of the financial “bubble”
• I really upset & disappointed about the way China government handle with 趙連海, I don’t understand why, it is not political and if this (I mean if) is merely a civil case towards a corporation, and if the government don’t want to pay the compensation to all babies who got sick, that’s easy, just let 3 6 went bankrupt and re-open again 3 6 with the same management team few years later (of course, this is not ethical too). The government just don’t need to do such thing, it hurt everyone’s trust to China’s legal system and its political image in short term and if China continue this way, economy is everything and it is nothing, it will just lead the entire country, our nation, our home land, towards death. 趙連海 is really one of the righteous person in this injustice society, someone I should learn from (although I really don’t want to end up in jail) not just fighting for the rights on behave of his baby kid, but for the poor girl who got raped publicly in police station (make me think of the story in bible – judge c19-21).

Top holding in Canada 11/16/10

1. Manulife Financial (MFC)
2. TD Bank (TD)
3. Imperial Oil (IMO)
4. Shoppers Drug Mart (SC)
5. Trans Canada Pipeline (TRP)

Shoppers’ Drug Mart: during the “silent period” of Bilibala Finance, I bought back Shoppers’ Drug Mart at $35.0 because I think the regulation change in prescription drug has fully reflected in the share price.

Top holding in USA 11/16/10

1. Google Inc. (GOOG)
2. Wells Fargo Financial (WFC)
3. General Electric (GE)
4. American Express (AXP)
5. Walt’s Disney (DIS)

Walt’s Disney: after I sold Exxon Mobil, Walt’s Disney became Bilibala’s 5th top holding in USA. It reports 4q results according to Bilibala’s expectation (little lower than wall street). Its2010 EPS up 13.4% to $2.54m thx to the significant improve in Studio Entertainment segment (Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Alice in Wonderland helps Disney to make lots of $$). On the other hand, that also put a open question: can this strong box office continue in future years? Advertisement in Disney Channel, ABC and ESPN will continue to improve as economy slow growing.