Life Term Strategies

1. Huge Gains in Long Term
- Receive significant capital gains
- by investing in corporations
- (with wide economic moat & average peers’ net margin)
- In very very long term

2. Strong Periodic Cash Flow
- Maintain self-sufficient monthly cash flow
- Through dividend, gains on derivative & short term trading
- For re-investment to item # 1 mentioned above

3. Mind for Risk Management
- Ensure strong cash position
- Maintain low risk by continue monitor, analyze & feel:
economic trend & environment,
market condition & investors emotion
corporate performance & outlook
asset allocation & direction

4. Be a holy Christian investor:
- Invest in wisdom & varies ways, but consistent & not over nor under of what the Holy Bible expects a Jesus follower should be
- Keep regular & long term spiritual growth
Continue experience God @ finance market
Aim for life transform opportunities
- Even though it may not teach Billy & Bilibala what stocks to invest nor how to make more, more & more $

3.08.2010

Ahead of the Bell: 'Alice' success good for Disney

Bilibala: Disney is in a nice pace during the economy recovery. To me, the postor of "Alice in Wonderland" doesn't look cute, but I will definitly go and watch "The Ocean" and "Toy Story 3".

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/03/08/business-mobile-telecommunications-us-disney-ahead-of-the-bell_7414936.html

NEW YORK -- Analysts see "Alice in Wonderland" as a much-needed hit for The Walt Disney Co., but note the returns from one movie aren't enough to move the needle on its financial results.
The adventure through the looking glass earned a blowout $116.3 million in its opening weekend - a record for a 3-D film and for a non-sequel.

Analyst Doug Mitchelson at Deutsche Bank ( DB - news - people ) said his tentative estimate was that Disney ( DIS - news - people ) could ultimately make $200 million from the movie. More importantly, he sees the movie as kicking off a recovery in content for Disney, "which has been in an 18-month dry spell with duds like Bedtime Stories, G-Force and A Christmas Carol."

This summer, Disney will debut "Toy Story 3" and "Iron Man 2," followed by the second "Cars" movie and the fourth installment of "Pirates of the Caribbean" next summer. A recovery in content can drive success for the whole company, he writes.

Tony Wible at Janney Capital Markets also noted that the success of "Alice" was a "much needed boost" for Disney, but said it wouldn't change his earnings estimates, which already factored in some returns from the movie.

He highlighted another weekend drama as more significant for Disney's prospects. New York-area cable company Cablevision Systems Corp. ( CVC - news - people ) reached a deal with the local Disney-owned ABC affiliate for retransmission, giving cable subscribers the signal back 14 minutes into the Academy Awards broadcast.

MetLife buying AIG's Alico unit

Bilibala: AIG's brand name was totaly distoried during the financial crisis, I don't think is smart to acquire any of its subsidaries. Insurance is a competitive industry, there are almost no product differentiate at all other than the corporate brand value and its credit rating.

Policyholders are willing to pay higher cost of insuruance for a famlious and reliable brand. Once its brand name being distoried, there will be minimum value of new business.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62622120100308?feedType=nl&feedName=usbusinessearly

MetLife said on Monday that it would pay AIG $6.8 billion in cash and about $8.7 billion in equity for its American Life Insurance Co (Alico) unit, confirming an earlier Reuters report.
Founded in 1921, Alico sells life, accident and health insurance as well as retirement and wealth management products in more than 50 countries. The deal will help MetLife, already the largest life insurer in the United States and Mexico, diversify revenue by product, distribution and geography.

MetLife will get a boost in Japan, the world's second-largest life insurance market, which accounted for 70 percent of Alico's pre-tax operating income in fiscal year. Alico will also strengthen MetLife's position in Europe and move it into a top five market position in many emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.

MetLife expects the deal to increase its 2011 operating earnings per share by 45 cents to 55 cents, excluding one-time expenses of 12 cents. It sees annualized post-tax cost savings of $50 million to $75 million.

"Rarely does one come across a deal that has such a strong strategic fit and is also such a financially attractive proposition," MetLife Chief Executive Robert Henrikson said during a conference call.

Still, such a large deal comes with risks, said Clark Troy, a senior analyst at Aite Group.
Alico's strength in Japan also ties MetLife's fortunes to an aging society with a huge public debt overhang, he said.

"If (Japan) falters or slips back into deflation, MetLife might face challenges growing revenue," Troy said in an e-mail late Sunday, before the deal was announced.

FED PAYDAY
The deal comes after AIG agreed to sell its Asian life unit, American International Assurance (AIA), to Britain's Prudential for $35.5 billion, the largest insurance sector deal ever.

The AIA and Alico deals will allow AIG to repay the U.S. government about $31.5 billion in cash, with more expected as the insurer sells Prudential and MetLife securities over time.

AIG will use the $6.8 billion in cash from the Alico deal to redeem part of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's $9 billion preferred interest in a vehicle that holds the unit.

The proceeds from the two deals should help AIG pay down all of its Fed debt, but it will still leave the government holding roughly $47 billion in equity investments, including the amount drawn under a $30 billion equity line. The government will still have a nearly 80 percent stake in AIG.

To untangle itself from AIG, the government is likely to follow a strategy similar to what it has used with Citigroup Inc (C.N) in a process that will probably take years.

The sale of Alico comes after months of negotiations and became possible after the New York Fed, advised by Morgan Stanley (MS.N), agreed in March 2009 to swap its debt into equity in special purpose vehicles that AIG created to hold AIA and Alico.

Early last year, MetLife offered about $11 billion for the unit, but the price went up in the months after March 2009.

METLIFE STAKE
The equity portion of the price consists of 78.2 million shares of MetLife common stock valued at $3 billion, 6.9 million shares of contingent convertible preferred stock valued at $2.7 billion, and 40 million equity units with an aggregate stated value of $3 billion.

The common stock and equivalents would give AIG a 14 percent ownership in MetLife, MetLife Chief Financial Officer William Wheeler said.

The equity units are set to convert into common shares roughly three years after closing, Wheeler said. Taking those into account, AIG's ownership in MetLife would go above 20 percent, sources familiar with the matter said on Sunday.

But Wheeler said he expected AIG to start selling the shares as soon as it could under a lock-up agreement.

"I am not sure how much shares they will own at any one time, but I suspect it won't get close to 20 percent," Wheeler said.

AIG must vote its shares in proportion to the way the rest of MetLife's outstanding shareholders do, Wheeler said.

MetLife expects to finance the cash portion of the deal with issuances of $3.1 billion in senior debt and $2 billion of common stock, as well as $1.75 billion in cash on hand.

Both boards have approved the transaction, which the companies expect to close by the end of 2010.

Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX) was lead adviser to MetLife, which was also advised by Barclays Capital (BARC.L), Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC.N), Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and HSBC (HSBA.L).

AIG is being advised by Citigroup, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Blackstone Group (BX.N), according to several sources.

AIG shares were up 5.3 percent to $29.58, while MetLife was up 5.1 percent to $40.90, both during morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

(Reporting by Paritosh Bansal; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn, Dave Zimmerman and John Wallace)

CCB's outlook on 2010 new lending

Bilibala: giant bank is better than small/mid bank even in China, a country where huge banks have much more social responsibity & political concern than the commerical banks. Sometimes, conservative can be a good character, a little lower return with much lesser risk.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE62703Q20100308

Govt targets 19 pct loan growth for banking sector (Adds details, background)
BEIJING, March 8 (Reuters) - China Construction Bank (0939.HK), China's No.2 bank by assets, said its new lending will grow by a modest 10 percent or more this year, as banks slow new loans growth following a lending binge in 2010 under Beijing's economic stimulus programme.

CCB Chairman Guo Shuping gave Reuters the forecast on the sidelines of the National People's Congress in Beijing on Monday, adding that the bank expected its provision ratio for non-performing loans to remain above 170 percent this year.

Chinese banks posted a record 9.6 trillion yuan ($1.406 trillion) in new loans last year, fuelling concern they were sowing the seeds for a new crop of bad debts down the road.

The government has targeted 7.5 trillion yuan in new lending this year, down from last year but a figure that would still lift the industry's overall outstanding loan volume by 19 percent from the end of 2009.

CCB (601939.SS) and China's other biggest lenders including ICBC (1398.HK)(601398.SS) were relatively conservative in their lending last year compared with mid-sized and smaller banks, which sharply turned up lending in response to Beijing's 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan aimed at boosting consumption.

As a result, many of those smaller banks are believed to need new capital to boost their adequacy ratios.

China CITIC Bank (0998.HK)(601998.SS) is actively exploring raising capital [ID:nBJC002509], and China Merchants Bank (3968.HK)(600036.SS) is launching a $3.2 billion rights issue, but this week said it should require no further capital raising for at least the next three years. [ID:nBJB003703]

Bank of Communications (BoCom) (3328.HK) (601328.SS), China's fifth-largest lender, said last month that it planned to raise as much as 42 billion yuan via a rights issue in Shanghai and Hong Kong to bolster capital.

3.05.2010

巴(不得)飛凸

周六晨早近 8點, 不是做懶訓豬, 而是 refresh 呀 refresh 在床邊的 laptop. 皆因今日(2/28)是股神巴菲特主理的公司 Berkshire Hathaway Inc(巴郡)派成績表和巴菲特出 chairperson's letter 的大日子. 已經和巴菲特作了三年* 伙伴(股神是這樣稱呼其小股東)的 Bilibala 自然要先睹為快.* Bilibala 當其 B股$4,900跌至 $2,300 時曾分了大半年手 :P還記得上年今日, 當所有人信心跌到谷底, 當所有數據同股/債市跌到似乎仍未見底的時侯. 神就借著巴郡的年報大大安慰了 Billy 和 Bilibala. Bilibala 在今年巴郡的年報又學習了不少:
  • 巴菲特對 book value 的理解: 巴菲特認為 book value 雖然無法完全反映甚至低估其內在價值, 但比起隱含市場心理, 波動非常的 stock price/market value 更反映企業的成果. 金融風暴, 傳媒集中佈導巴菲特如何老貓燒鬚, 巴郡book value 跌 9.6% . 忘記了同期 S&P 500 跌了 37%. 兩年打下來, 巴郡book value升8.3%, S&P 500 仍是跌20.3%. 可見傳媒愛嘩眾取寵, 有時非常誤導
  • 對企業收購合併(即投資企業)的合理值有新體會. 依家收購合併以股換股方式合併, 何謂合理收購價變得難以計算. 但巴菲特有他獨到見解. 他還笑言有次他投資的大銀行高價收購一迷你銀行. 巴菲特:「似乎太貴」那大銀行 CEO:「不打緊, 那只是間迷你銀行, 無關痛癢.」巴菲特的拍擋芒果:「我們是否因為吠我們的惡狗是狗仔而非聖班納而鼓掌?」(哈哈)

巴菲特亦好謙虛, 值得牙刷刷的 Bilibala 羞愧和學效:

  • 之前GEICO的員工反對我(巴菲特)開信用咭生意, 我不聽勸, 結果虧損. 我一直以為我越老越聰明, 原來我只是老了
  • 假如我, 芒果和 Ajit (Mid America Energy CEO)坐沉船一齊掉下海, 而你只能救一個, 請你救 Ajit. 因為你最需要他
  • Netjet 由收購至今虧損不少, 負債不斷加, 沒有及時向你們報告是我的不是
  • CEO應為企業過失負 100% 責任

巴郡仍有 $5B(稅後) derivative liabilities, 除掉浮盈 net earnings 每年大約是$4B, $56B的股票未來 5年大約會再升 $12B(稅後), 再加 $8B 新股, 所以, 5年後 shareholders equity 應有 $180B. 以 1.6倍 book value計, 巴郡值 $288B, 較現在$193B 市值高 49%, 每股內在值應是 US$123.78.

3.03.2010

中國移動認購浦發銀行

Bilibala: Short term impact, should be a good opportunity to buy more. I think it is a better use of the extra cash China Mobile had

財華社深圳新聞中心
近日盛傳可能斥資400億元認購浦發銀行(600000-CN)約22億股定向增發股份的中國移動,股價今早初段逆市走弱,現跌2.28%至72.95港 元,成交826萬股。中國移動發布公告確認,已就入股浦發銀行的規模達成協議,將通過投資浦發銀行擴展移動電子商務業務;但將專注於開發增值服務。中國移 動同時表示不排除與其他銀行合作的可能性。

有市場評論認為,中國移動開發移動電子商務業務是遠離主營業務的多元化做法,難以量化可能獲得的收益。長線投資者將中國移動作為公用事業類股,原因是3.7%的歷史股息收益率,而入股浦發銀行所帶來的大規模資本支出也可能擊碎投資者對該公司提高股利支付比率的預期。

但大華繼顯則稱,中國移動之前曾談及將在2010年推出高附加值的移動支付業務;與浦發銀行在移動支付領域的合作不但能夠幫助中國移動解決監管問題,還能夠獲得交叉銷售效應。

China Life Jan 10 sales up

Bilibala: China Life's sales is growing in a nice double digit pace as the insurance penetration improved, on the other hand, I think the stock price has reflect this growth expectation. Therefore, the future rise will rely heavily on investment performance.

http://www.chinavestor.com/life-insurance/71392-china-life-january-sales-up-14-percent-to-62-billion.html

March 3, 2010 (Chinavestor) China Life Insurance (NYSE:LFC), the largest Chinese life insurer, reported premiums income, or revenue from sale of insurance policies, for the month of January 2010 as follows. Total premiums income from 1 January 2010 to 31 January 2010 was about RMB41.8 billion ($6.119 billion).Given that 2009 January sale of insurance policies was RMB36.6 billion ($5.3579 billion), January 2010 numbers represent an increase of 14.2% from last year data.

Another important development to notice is that January 2010 data is by far the best achieved by China Life Insurance (NYSE:LFC) in the last 13 months as the following chart testifies.

LFC_2010jan_premsincome

Shares of China Life Insurance (NYSE:LFC) have been under weather along the uncertain outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index. China Life derives a significant portion of total net income from investment returns related to the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index. China Life Insurance (NYSE:LFC) has a significant investment in index heavy weight stock such as Petrochina (SHA:601857) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (SHA:601398).

If China Life Insurance (NYSE:LFC) can demonstrate strong revenue growth - as is the case fro January - stock price appreciation will follow.

3.02.2010

造金融保险业航母观海听涛

⊙记者 卢晓平 ○编辑 王颖

他的儒雅睿智,早有耳闻。相识几年,更有深刻感受。

  在他北京金融街(10.95,0.16,1.48%)中国人寿(27.71,-0.19,-0.68%)大厦的27层办公室里,一幅刚劲有力的书法“观海听涛”透露出拥有者的眼界胸怀……

  他是位和蔼可亲的睿者,又是有着强烈社会责任感的企业家。他带领占据国内保险市场半壁江山的金融保险集团,成为我国保险行业唯一的“世界双500强”企业。

  他令全球市值最高寿险公司的中国人寿,积极应对金融危机,连续5年取得了骄人业绩。
  我们之间短信往来,我写的是中文,他回的是英文;我们谈论的话题,从金融到经济社会无所不包,一个有着丰富金融保险经历的他,在精炼话语中,无不透露出善于学习、与时俱进的修养。

  他的办公室,一个地球仪迎接着每日朝霞。

  全球视野防范风险
  有过10多年海外留学和工作经历的杨超,考虑问题时的全球视野已经形成习惯。中国经济早已融入世界,中国金融保险与世界相互融合。亲身经历1997年亚洲金融风暴,让他养成高度的风险防范意识和稳健经营作风。

  “国际金融危机背景下,保险业的深刻变革为公司的发展提供了难得的外部机遇”,他在危中寻机。

  有据为证:去年,在对外投资中,国寿稳妥推进国际化进程,没有出现重大损失,而在危机的影响逐渐确定的情况下,果断出手,及时调整资产战略配置,增加权益投资比例,特别是抓住境外金融机构大规模减持中资银行股份的时机,成功购进美国银行出让的建行H股股票,创造了香港证券市场有史以来最大规模的大宗交易。正是这样一种进退有度的经营风格,才在险象环生的世界经济形势和国际金融危机面前保持平稳健康发展。

  数据也说明:去年,国寿集团总保费收入达到3221.18亿元(未经审计),实现了平稳增长;总资产达到1.56万亿元,较年初增加2707.83亿元,占全行业总资产的37.7%;上市公司业绩预增超50%。品牌价值高达824.37亿元,在国内金融类企业中名列第3位。

  敢于大浪淘金,不等于无视风险。令人关注的是,杨超根据科学发展观,提出了“不怕险、忌冒险、善控险、能化险”的科学风险观。防风险是手段,最终目的是为了提升抗风险能力,提高综合经营管理能力,这才是目的。他强调,2010年仍要切实加强风险防范,及时、准确把握国际国内经济金融的发展形势,在判断和决策上不能出现大的失误。目前我国经济回升向好的基础还不稳定、不巩固、不平衡,特别是结构性矛盾仍很突出,需求不足和供给结构性矛盾并存。

  “最近中央反复强调,国际金融危机并没有完全过去,消除危机的影响更是一个长期的过程。这将直接或间接地影响到公司的发展。对此,我们一定要有危机和忧患意识,把问题想得复杂一些,把困难考虑得多一些,把应对措施准备得更加充分一些”,他强调。

  做久做优求稳健经营
  几年前,在粗放式发展成为潮流的时候,杨超逆势考虑的是做强做大。如今,他又往前多走了一步,做久做优成为首选。

  也许,是曾经的学医经历让他的思维缜密,求真务实。

  “我学过医,人的肌体要想健康长寿,绝对不要逞能一时,否则会在肌体内打下烙印,到一定时候必然暴露,危及生命”,杨超很认真。因为,只有防范风险、稳健经营,才能实现平稳健康发展。只有科学发展、壮大实力,才能经受住严峻考验。

  他强调,要持续推进结构调整,进一步完善推进结构调整的财务、预算、人力、考核等政策,注意保持政策的连续性、稳定性和严肃性,有效发挥对结构调整的激励、约束和导向作用;要科学调整,不搞“一刀切”,尤其要从负债业务与资产业务的结合上全面分析、统筹研究结构调整问题,使保险产品结构、负债结构更好地适应资本市场、货币市场、利率政策的变化。

  “要正确处理发展与调整的关系,不能离开发展主题搞调整、停下发展脚步搞调整、脱离客户需求搞调整、不顾市场竞争搞调整。”他说。

  他给出调整框架:全面调整,调整优化业务结构、渠道结构、城乡结构、效益结构和队伍结构。其中在业务结构方面,要大力发展风险保障型、长期储蓄型和非车险等优质业务,努力提高优质业务的比重;在渠道结构方面,要实施多渠道发展策略,明确不同渠道的发展定位,着力构建优势互补、良性互动、协调发展的渠道新格局;在城乡结构方面,实行差异化发展策略,专门制定针对特定区域市场、适应巩固和夺回城区市场主导地位需要的差异化产品政策和考核政策,务必在提升城区市场竞争力方面取得实质性进展。

  工夫不负有心人。他的果敢敏捷使得中国人寿创造了奇迹。

  去年,国寿经营风险得到有效防范,发展基础更加巩固。财务、业务管控不断强化。依据集团整体盈利目标分解下达各直属单位预算,充分发挥了预算的管控和导向作用等;着力加强了对外部复杂形势、资本市场态势及其应对策略的分析研究,有效防范了决策风险和投资风险;针对资本市场大幅下滑导致分红水平和万能险结算利率的下降情况,在行业退保支出增加的情况下,寿险公司退保金额同比减少15.12%,退保率为3.18%,同比下降1.2个百分点,有效防范了非正常退保风险。

  天时地利人和人为先
  人是第一生产力,杨超现在不仅看重个体,更重视群体力量。
  春节前,温州。中国人寿员工脸上洋溢着喜庆。温州银海团队得到了“中国人寿第一团队”的称号,成为中国人寿乃至中国寿险营销战线的一面旗帜。

  在授旗现场,我看见员工们在笑、杨超在笑。员工笑中透露出一份收获喜悦;杨超的笑中,包含一份深情和卓识。

  中国人寿有1万8千余个营销团队,为什么将此殊荣给了温州?
  杨超一语道破,当前,中国人寿已经站在打造国际顶级金融保险集团,争创国际一流寿险公司的新起点上。应以银海团队为榜样,进一步解放思想、夯实基础、开拓进取,全面提升团队的综合管理水平和团结协作能力。同时,各营销团队要利用中国人寿这个最大的市场作为大舞台,依赖中国人寿这个后台,努力搭建好营销伙伴展业创富的平台。

  面对新的市场竞争环境,通过特殊的春节慰问活动,中国人寿管理层将新阶段在全系统提倡什么、宣传什么、鼓励什么表露无遗,同时也向市场传递了一个鲜明信号――中国人寿这艘巨型航母将从基层团队转型入手开始新的远航。

  在杨超看来,万丈高楼平地起。没有基层的因子铺垫,哪里有高楼的辉煌。要想航母升级换代,不从基层抓起谈何容易。况且,当前市场主体越来越多,集团化竞争的特征越来越明显,大中城市竞争更趋于白热化,国寿巩固和夺回城区市场的任务十分艰巨,并且竞争区域正逐步向县域农村市场延伸,给公司带来了很大挑战。

  据了解,这支团队连续9年蝉联全国寿险销售团队新单保费规模/佣金第一名,创造了中国人寿团队发展史上的奇迹。按照杨超的话:实现公司利益最大化和个人价值最大化的高度统一。

  除了基层团队,在杨超眼里,集团上下整体人才队伍系统建设更显迫切。
  他告诉记者,2010年要进一步完善选人用人机制。重点是要强化对领导干部的考核评价、激励约束和选拔任用;要突出科学发展成绩,将经营绩效分析、经济责任审计、组织考察相结合,将定期考察、年度考察和任期考察相结合,把政治上靠得住、工作上有本事、作风上过得硬、职工群众信得过的干部选拔上来。

  另外,将全方位加强“三支队伍”的培养管理,着力加强管理干部队伍的建设,造就一批专家型技术人才;注重对销售队伍的培养管理,逐步建立一支满足大中城市业务发展需要和适应高端客户拓展需求的专门销售队伍;要重视后备干部的岗位锻炼,力争用三年时间把地市级分公司、县支公司负责人轮训一遍。

  杨超是感情丰厚的人,在去年地震灾区看望广大员工时,他落泪了。带去的不仅是温暖,还有大量灾区急需的物品。但他同时又是原则性很强的人,强调坚持勤俭节约办企业,严格控制员工特别是管理人员增长,反对铺张浪费,养成勤俭办企业的良好风气。

  国寿要为今后翱翔打下坚石,人是本。

  整合求飞跃
  喜欢打网球的杨超,身体素质不是一般人所能比拟的。充沛的精力,不仅使他经常忙碌奔波于基层,而且,养成了雷厉风行,开拓创新的办事作风。

  整合出效益,创新求发展。杨超当然没有忽视这一点,他有一套《中国人寿资源整合发展规划》。

  今年公司工作任务中明确,要着力加大全系统资源整合力度,完善资源整合机制。要强化集团公司在资源整合中的领导组织作用,完善总公司层面的资源整合机制,建立省级分公司及以下机构的资源整合组织体系。在销售资源整合上,要完善互动业务体制机制,积极探索寿险、财险、养老险各级公司联合拓展大客户的有效模式;在客户和服务资源整合上,要尽快建立客户资源共享平台……

  整合带来了意想不到的收效,公司发展质量和效益不断提升。

  从去年的业绩看,承保盈利能力得到提升,另外,资产管理能力不断提高。目前,投资收益仍然是当前全系统盈利的最主要来源,资产公司在整个集团的发展中起着举足轻重的作用,因此,下一步的重点是要切实承担起提高投资收益的重任,加强对形势、政策和市场的研究,科学配置资产,准确把握市场机遇,在确保防范风险的前提下,为提升全系统的盈利水平作出更大贡献。

  从目前国寿整体架构看,寿险、财险、养老险等保险体系布局齐备,从金融架构看,资产管理、股权投资、不动产投资、参股银行、参股信托等等已经建立或在建立过程中,一个保险金融集团航母在新时期正昂扬起帆。
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