Economic Data: 08 week 42

1. Some expect US will hold interest rate on Oct 25 and Canada will cut another 25 bps or even 50 bps tomorrow;
2. Overnight LIBOR rate drop further to 1.51%, good sight of the clam down on the credit market.
3. Coca Cola profit up 15%
4. OPEC is expected to cut oil supply (as what i wrote on 07/11/08 when oil close to its peak at 07/15/08), i think oil price has touch bottom at US$70/barrel (at least close), may not rise back to US$100 right away, as you know US$ is pretty strong now.5. Consumer confidence index fall from 70.5 in Sep to 57.
5 in Oct, 26 years greatest fall, but in fact, it is consistent with Aug, so i think it is bad but reasonable to me, remember, USA is already in recession.

I think credit crisis is over, now investors is waiting for corporate earnings & cooperate forecast to see how deep the impact of such credit crisis. If earnings are bad and forecast are bad, the equity market may fall further, if they looks reasonable, they won't fall but continue to fluctuate until strong economic data trend comes and interest rate rise, then the market will move up.

Corp info: China Life 3q08 results

LFC did not issue 3q08 results yet. But here is what i expect: premium up 57% compare to 3q07 (given), invested asset up 1.3% compare to 4q07, total equity drop 27% compare to 4q07 and 10% compare to 2q08. Book value drop to RMB $5.29. It is almost impossible to determine net income for an insurance company in any time, plus it is irrelevant in the calculation of its value, so i won't bother to do that, however, i think China Life will have no profit or a small loss in 3q08 qtd, 3q08 ytd may earn RMB$15-16B, again, profit is meaningless.

Corp review: China Mobile 3q08 results

3q08 ytd profit up 38% compare to 3q07; above the analysts' 34% and my expectation of 36%. (ARPU drop from $84 in 2q08 to $83 in 3q08, same to expectation); typically, China Mobile's 1Q & 3Q profits are lower than 2Q & 4Q's. In 4Q, I think the earning per share will be QTD RMB$1.76 and YTD RMB$5.89.